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French President Emmanuel Macron Sunday downplayed the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying in a newspaper interview that the massing of Russian forces on Ukrainian borders is likely part of a wider Kremlin strategy to secure Western concessions rather than a prelude to a full-scale offensive.

“The geopolitical objective of Russia today is clearly not Ukraine, but to clarify the rules of cohabitation with NATO and the EU,” he told France’s Le Journal de Dimanche just hours before boarding a flight to Moscow, where he will hold face-to-face talks Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In a bold claim, Macron said his negotiations with Russia are likely to head off a military conflict. 

“The intensity of the dialogue we have had with Russia and this visit to Moscow are likely to prevent [a military operation] from happening. Then we will discuss the terms of de-escalation,” he said. “I have always been in a deep dialogue with President Putin and our responsibility is to build historic solutions.”

His remarks diverge noticeably from how the Biden administration characterizes Moscow’s military buildup and the danger of a Russian offensive. 

A Russian invasion of Ukraine “could happen at any time,” White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday, in what would be the biggest military operation in Europe since World War II. 

“We believe that the Russians have put in place the capabilities to mount a significant military operation into Ukraine, and we have been working hard to prepare a response,” Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” show. Sullivan and other U.S. officials estimate that Russia has 70% of a strike force in place for an invasion.

Macron’s claim that his negotiations with Russia will prevent a military conflict prompted scorn from political foes in France who accused him of grandstanding. Some commentators and analysts warned he was putting his credibility as a negotiator on the line, cautioning that his efforts since 2017 to court the Russian leader have come up short.

French presidential elections are to be held in April and Macron’s electoral opponents have accused him of seeking to weaponize foreign policy to try to boost his reelection hopes.

“Whether Macron can win anything from Vladimir Putin is another question entirely,” says Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of the Eurasia Group, a global risk and consulting firm. “Previous attempts by Macron to reason with the Russian president have fallen flat on their face,” he tweeted.

Macron’s language “makes the rest of Europe quite nervous,” says foreign policy analyst Ulrich Speck, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Berlin, a research group.

Macron has long called for Russia to be brought back into the Western fold, despite Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. In his 2017 campaign book “Revolution,” Macron said, “It would be a mistake to break ties with this eastern European power [over Crimea] rather than forming a lasting relationship.”

Shortly after entering office, he hosted Putin in Versailles amid talk of detente, but the trip turned sour, the two leaders didn’t meet eye-to-eye and Macron took Putin to task for a host of actions at a joint press conference. Macron criticized Russia for seeking to meddle in Western elections by spreading fake news, disinformation and falsehoods. Macron talked about “very clear lines” of behavior.

Two years later, the French president tried again with his search for detente when he hosted Putin at the French president’s summer residence on the Riviera. 

In a speech, he warned about Europe being caught in the middle of a new Cold War, saying, “It’s not in our interest to be weak and guilty, to forget all our disagreements and to embrace each other again [but] the European continent will never be stable, will never be in security, if we don’t pacify and clarify our relations with Russia.” 

Macron has been reluctant in the past also to impose fresh sanctions on Putin’s Russia.

Some Macron critics say his attempts to reset relations with Moscow are as much about his personal ambitions and aim to boost his role in international affairs as anything else.  

Much like France’s iconic post-World War II leader, Gen. Charles de Gaulle, Macron sees France as a “balancing power” between Russia and the United States. His diplomatic forays alarm some of France’s European allies, notably Russia’s near neighbors.

Polish politicians have accused him of ignoring the fact that Russia hasn’t really changed its expansionist ways and they worry Macron’s efforts as a broker between Russia and the United States will lead to the Europeans placing themselves as an equidistant power between Moscow and Washington.

Last month, in a speech at the European Parliament, Macron called for the European Union to pursue its own talks with the Kremlin and said the bloc should negotiate a security and stability pact with the Kremlin. Some central European and Baltic leaders said Macron’s comments were ill-timed and risked encouraging the Kremlin to try to play the U.S. and EU off against each other.

Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister, said he was at a loss to understand what Macron meant about coming up with “a new order of security and stability.”

“These next few months rather seem to call for firm defense of the existing post-1989 order,” he said. Bildt was referencing the European security system based on NATO. 

Both the United States and Britain have warned that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent, part of a bid to restore a Russian sphere of influence in eastern and central Europe. 

Russia has demanded that Ukraine never become a NATO member and says NATO’s military presence should be removed from the former Communist states of eastern Europe that have joined the Western alliance. NATO officials say countries should be free to decide whether to join the alliance.

In his interview with Le Journal de Dimanche, Macron spoke again about a new European security arrangement, saying that while “the security and sovereignty of Ukraine or any other European State cannot be a subject for compromise,” it is “also legitimate for Russia to pose the question of its own security.”

“We must protect our European brothers by proposing a new balance capable of preserving their sovereignty and peace. This must be done while respecting Russia and understanding the contemporary traumas of this great people and nation,” he said.

Justyna Gotkowska of the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies, a research group, questioned who had mandated Macron to talk about a new European security system.

“What legitimacy does Macron have to propose this? Europeans haven’t agreed in NATO and in the OSCE on ‘a new balance,’ to the contrary,” she tweeted.

French officials say Macron’s trip has been coordinated fully with Western allies and told the Reuters news agency that the Élysée Palace has learned from past errors of judgment to ensure that all EU and NATO allies are kept fully informed about Macron’s talks with Putin.

Speck, of the German Marshall Fund, said it would have been better if Macron had been accompanied by other Western leaders for his trip to Moscow. It “would make Europe look much stronger and make sure that there is a united message,” he tweeted.

He added, “What we get instead: an open-ended meeting between Macron and Putin” and that nobody else is in the room “besides translators.”
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Pope Francis on Sunday decried the genital mutilation of millions of girls and the trafficking of women for sex, including openly on city streets, so others can make money off of them. 

In remarks to the public in St. Peter’s Square, the pope noted that the day was dedicated worldwide to ending the ritual mutilation, and he told the crowd that some 3 million girls each year undergo the practice, “often in conditions very dangerous for the health.”

“This practice, unfortunately widespread in various regions of the world, humiliates the dignity of women and gravely attacks their physical integrity,” Francis said.

Female genital mutilation comprises all procedures that involve changing or injuring female genitalia for non-medical reasons and violates the human rights, health and the integrity of girls and women, the United Nations says in championing an end to the practice.

The practice can cause severe pain, shock, excessive bleeding, infections, and difficulty in passing urine, as well as consequences for sexual and reproductive health. While mainly concentrated in some 30 countries in Africa and the Middle East, it is also a problem for girls and women living elsewhere, including among immigrant populations.

According to U.N. figures, at least 200 million girls and women alive today have undergone the practice.

The pope also told the faithful that on Tuesday, there will be a day of prayer and reflection worldwide against human trafficking.

“This is a deep wound, inflicted by the shameful search of economic interests, without respect for the human person,” Francis said. “So many girls — we see them on the streets — who aren’t free, they are slaves of the traffickers, who send them to work, and, if they don’t bring back money, they beat them,” the pope said. “This is happening today in our cities.”

“In the face of these plagues on humanity, I express my sorrow and I exhort all those who have responsibility to act in a decisive way to impede both the exploitation and the humiliating practices that afflict in particular women and girls,” Francis said.
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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set off Sunday for Washington seeking to reassure Americans that his country stands alongside the United States and other NATO partners in opposing any Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Scholz has said that Moscow would pay a “high price” in the event of an attack, but his government’s refusal to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine, bolster Germany’s troop presence in Eastern Europe or spell out which sanctions it would support against Russia has drawn criticism abroad and at home.

“The Germans are right now missing in action. They are doing far less than they need to do,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat and member of the Armed Services Committee, recently told an audience of Ukrainian Americans in his state, Connecticut.

This sentiment was echoed by Republican Sen. Rob Portman, who questioned why Berlin hadn’t yet approved a request to let NATO member Estonia pass over old German howitzers to Ukraine. “That makes no sense to me, and I’ve made that very clear in conversations with the Germans and others,” Portman told NBC.

Ahead of his trip, Scholz defended Germany’s position not to supply Kyiv with lethal weapons but insisted that his country is doing its bit by providing significant economic support to Ukraine.

Asked about the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that seeks to bring Russian natural gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine, Scholz refused to make any explicit commitments.

“Nothing is ruled out,” he told German public broadcaster ARD. 

Germany has come under criticism over its heavy reliance on Russian energy supplies and the gas pipeline has long been opposed by the United States. But it is strongly supported by some in Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party, including former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

The 77-year-old Schroeder is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and heads the shareholders’ committee of Nord Stream AG and the board of directors of Nord Stream 2.

In a move likely to embarrass Scholz ahead of his first official trip to Washington, the Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom announced Friday that Schroeder — who has accused Ukraine of “saber-rattling” in its standoff with Russia — has been nominated to join its board of directors.

Scholz’s spokesman declined repeated requests for comment on Schroeder’s ties to Putin.

Despite Germany’s reluctance to officially put the new pipeline — which has yet to receive an operating permit — on the negotiating table with Russia, the United States has made clear that even without Berlin’s agreement the project is dead should Moscow launch an attack.

“One way or the other, if Russia invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward,” U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan told “Fox News Sunday.”

Scholz will meet President Joe Biden and members of Congress on Monday to try to smooth out differences. The 63-year-old’s performance in Washington could have broad implications for U.S.-German relations and for Scholz’s standing at home.

While former President Donald Trump frequently slammed Germany, accusing it of not pulling its weight internationally, his successor has sought to rebuild relations with Berlin. 

“Biden has taken some real risks, including on the the issue of the German-Russian gas pipeline,” said Jeff Rathke, president of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies.

“(Scholz’s) visit to Washington is an opportunity for him to try to turn that page,” said Rathke.

Having succeeded long-time German leader Angela Merkel last year, Scholz also needs to appease doubters at home who accuse him of pulling a diplomatic vanishing act compared to his European counterparts. With the phrase “Where is Scholz?” trending on social media last week, German conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz called for “clear words” from the government on the Ukraine crisis. 

“We must rule nothing out as a reaction to a further military escalation,” the leader of Merkel’s center-right bloc said, though he too has been skeptical about sending possible German arms shipments to Ukraine.

Others in Scholz’s three-party governing coalition have struck a harsher tone toward Russia.

Speaking alongside her Russian counterpart in Moscow last month, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party branded Russia’s troop deployment at the border with Ukraine a “threat.” She plans to visit Ukraine on Monday and Tuesday and inspect the front line between Ukrainian troops and areas held by Russian-based separatists in the east.

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a member of the Free Democrats who chairs Germany’s parliamentary defense committee, said Schroeder’s work for Moscow “harms the country he should serve” and suggested removing the privileges he enjoys since leaving office.

Whatever Germany does to support Ukraine will likely come at a cost.

Berlin’s approval of 5,000 helmets for Ukrainian troops last week drew widespread mockery. Kyiv has since asked Germany for more military hardware, including medium-range and portable anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as ammunition.

Meanwhile, some German officials worry that any mention of further sanctions against Russia, let alone a full-blown conflict, could drive up Europe’s already high gas prices.  Constanze Stelzenmueller, a specialist on trans-Atlantic relations at the Brookings Institution, noted that Europe will bear the brunt of blowback costs from economic sanctions against Russia.

“You have populists in Europe always looking for ways to exploit political differences and tensions,” she said. “That’s what’s at stake here.”

In an uncharacteristic outburst at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Scholz — who was then Germany’s finance minister — announced that he would be pulling out a figurative “bazooka” to help businesses cope with the crisis by setting aside more than 1 trillion euros ($1.1 trillion) in state aid.

Scholz may need to make a similarly expansive gesture to ease concerns in Washington and beyond, said Rathke.

“Germany is going to have to show that it is not only committed to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, but that it’s putting real resources behind it now, not just pointing to what it’s done in the past,” he said.
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A photographer who previously worked for RFE/RL’s Belarus service has been arrested and taken to pretrial detention in Minsk, his relatives say.

Relatives of photographer Uladz Hrydzin told RFE/RL on Sunday that he was taken to the Akrestsina detention center and that his trial would take place Monday.

The Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAZh) also said police arrested Hrydzin, according to The Associated Press.

Hrydzin stopped communicating on Friday, according to his relatives, who went to his house on Sunday and saw evidence that it had been searched. They said things were scattered on the floor and his laptop and camera were missing.

The relatives said they subsequently found out he had been taken to the Akrestsina detention center, where many inmates have said they were tortured.

Hrydzin worked as a photo correspondent for RFE/RL’s Belarus service until August 29, 2020, when his accreditation was revoked. Since then, he has worked as a freelancer.

The BAZh also said Hrydzin had been taken to pretrial detention in Minsk but didn’t identify the facility by name. It said no information was available on charges against him and that his lawyer had not been able to meet with him, according to AP.

Hrydzin was arrested in 2020 for filming a protest that arose after a disputed presidential election and served 11 days in detention.

The protest rally took place after authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko claimed victory in the election, which the opposition and many Western governments said was rigged.

Hrydzin has won the Belarus Press Photo contest, and his pictures were published by international agencies and mass media.

Some material for this report came from The Associated Press.
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The United States now believes a Russian invasion of Ukraine “could happen at any time,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Sunday, in what would be the biggest military operation in Europe since World War II. 

 

“We believe that the Russians have put in place the capabilities to mount a significant military operation into Ukraine, and we have been working hard to prepare a response,” Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” show.  

 

In a separate interview on “Fox News Sunday,” Sullivan said, “Any day Russia could take action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple weeks,” with U.S. intelligence officials assessing that Moscow has 70% of its strike force in place for an attack. 

He said a Russian invasion would come “at an enormous human cost to Ukraine but at a strategic cost to Russia,” with the U.S. prepared to impose swift and severe economic sanctions against Russia to hobble its economy. 

 

“Whatever actions Russia takes next, America is ready,” Sullivan said. 

 

Sullivan, however, said the U.S. is willing to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin over his professed security concerns about actions of the U.S. and its 29 NATO allies.  

 

“That includes the placement of certain range systems of missiles,” Sullivan said. “It includes transparency around military exercises. It includes greater capacity to have a confidence building and to avoid incidents that could lead to escalation or miscalculation.” 

 

“But what we’re not prepared to negotiate are the fundamental principles of security that include an open door to NATO for countries who can meet the requirements,” Sullivan said in rejecting Putin’s demand that NATO rule out the possibility of Ukrainian membership. 

 

The Western allies say no outside nation has veto power over which countries join the Atlantic alliance.  

 

U.S. President Joe Biden last week ordered that 3,000 American troops be sent to two eastern NATO countries, Poland and Romania. Reports say troops from the U.S. 82nd Airborne Division have landed in southeastern Poland near the border with Ukraine. 

Washington has ruled out dispatching troops to fight alongside Ukrainian forces in the event of a Russian invasion. The U.S. has, however, sent $500 million worth of arms and defensive missiles to the Kyiv government.   

 

If Russia invades Ukraine, then cuts off its natural gas supplies to European countries in retaliation to U.S. sanctions, Sullivan said the U.S. is moving to help redirect natural gas supplies from elsewhere to its European allies. 

 

In any event, Sullivan said if Russia invades Ukraine, its Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany “will not move forward.” The pipeline is completed but not yet operational. 

 

In the NBC interview, Sullivan said Biden “has rallied our allies. He’s reinforced and reassured our partners on the eastern flank. He’s provided material support to the Ukrainians, and he’s offered the Russians a diplomatic path if that’s what they choose instead, but either way, we are ready, our allies are ready and we’re trying to help the Ukrainian people get ready as well.” 
…

Russia is reporting a record daily count of new coronavirus infections of 180,071, a tenfold spike from a month ago as the highly contagious omicron variant spreads through the country. 

The figure released by the state coronavirus task force on Sunday was about 2,800 cases more than recorded the previous day and continued a surge that began in mid-January, when daily new cases were around 17,000.

Although the number of infections has increased dramatically in recent weeks, the task force reported that daily deaths from COVID-19 are holding steady or marginally declining: 661 deaths were recorded over the past 24 hours, compared with 796 on Jan. 6.

For the entire course of the pandemic, the task force has reported 12.8 million infections and 335,414 deaths.

President Vladimir Putin said last week that his government is considering loosening some coronavirus restrictions, despite the soaring infections.

Putin told Russia’s top business association that the authorities are not planning any lockdowns or other additional restrictions because of the surge. Moreover, the government is considering lifting restrictions for those who come into contact with COVID-19 patients.

Existing regulations mandate that people in that position must self-isolate for seven days.

Faced with the biggest virus surge yet, Russian authorities have generally resisted imposing any major restrictions and repeatedly rejected the idea of introducing a lockdown.

Russia had only one, six-week lockdown in 2020, and in October 2021 many people were also ordered to stay off work for about a week. But beside that, life in most of the country remained largely normal, with even mask mandates being loosely enforced.

In recent weeks, a growing number of Russian regions have started introducing restrictions for those under 18, as officials noted that the current surge affects children much more than the previous ones. In many areas, schools have either switched to remote learning or extended holidays for students. In St. Petersburg, Russia’s second largest city, minors have been temporarily barred from most public places. 

Russia started vaccinating children aged 12-17 only last month with the domestically developed Sputnik M jab, which is the same as Sputnik V but contains a smaller dose. According to media reports and social media users, only small amounts of vaccine for teenagers have been made available.

Only about half of Russia’s 146-million population has been vaccinated so far, even though the country was among the first in the world to roll out COVID-19 shots.
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Britain’s Prince Charles led tributes to his mother, Queen Elizabeth, on the 70-year anniversary of her accession to the throne on Sunday, saying it was an opportunity for the country to unite and celebrate her service to the nation.   

Charles also thanked the queen for her statement on Saturday that she hoped the heir to the throne’s wife, Camilla, would become Queen Consort when he becomes king.   

“We are deeply conscious of the honor represented by my mother’s wish,” he said in a statement. “As we have sought together to serve and support Her Majesty and the people of our communities, my darling wife has been my own steadfast support throughout.   

“The year of this unprecedented Platinum Jubilee brings an opportunity for us all to come together in celebrating the service of The Queen, by whose example we will continue to be led in the years to come.”  

 

 

 
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France and the European Union are investigating why a mass of dead fish was released by a huge trawler in the Atlantic Ocean off France, after an environmental group released dramatic video and photos of the incident.

The images by the group Sea Shepherd show a blanket of dead blue whiting fish floating on the surface of the Bay of Biscay, off the coast of southwest France. The group estimates it held some 100,000 dead fish.

Struck by the “shocking” images, French Maritime Minister Annick Girardin tweeted Friday that she ordered the National Center for Fishing Surveillance to investigate what happened.

The European commissioner for the environment, oceans and fisheries, Virginijus Sinkevičius, announced an inquiry into “national authorities of the fishing area and presumed flag state of the vessel, to get exhaustive information and evidence about the case.”

The Pelagic Freezer-Trawler Association, which represents the Lithuania-registered trawler Margiris, which caught the fish, said in a statement that the fish were “involuntarily released into the sea” on Thursday because of a tear in the trawler’s net.

“Such an accident is a rare occurrence, and in this case was caused by the unexpectedly large size of the fish caught,” it said. It said the trawler has adapted its practices to deal with “the exceptional size of the fish currently in the area concerned.”

Sea Shepherd, however, questioned whether it was an accident or instead an intentional dump of unwanted fish. The group is calling for more policing of the seas — and especially of massive industrial trawlers — to protect sea life and oceans. 

 
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Elizabeth Alexandra Mary Windsor wasn’t born to wear the crown. But destiny intervened.

The woman who became Queen Elizabeth II will mark 70 years on the throne Sunday, an unprecedented reign that has made her a symbol of stability as the United Kingdom navigated an age of uncertainty.

From her early days as a glamorous young royal in glittering tiaras to her more recent incarnation as the nation’s grandmother, the queen has witnessed the end of the British Empire, the advent of multiculturalism, the rise of international terrorism, and the challenges posed by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. In a world of relentless change, she has been a constant — representing the U.K.’s interests abroad, applauding the nation’s successes and commiserating in its failures, and always remaining above the fray of politics.

That constancy should earn Elizabeth a royal epithet like those of her predecessors such as William the Conqueror, Edward the Confessor and Alfred the Great, said royal historian Hugo Vickers.

“I’ve always thought she should be called Elizabeth the Steadfast,” Vickers told The Associated Press. “I think it’s a perfect way of describing her. She wasn’t necessarily expecting to be queen, and she embraced that duty.”

As the elder daughter of King George V’s second son, Elizabeth, now 95, was expected to live the life of a minor royal when she was born on April 21, 1926. Dogs and horses, a country house, a suitable match — a comfortable but uneventful life — seemed her future.

But everything changed a decade later when her uncle, King Edward VIII, abdicated so he could marry the American divorcee Wallis Simpson. Elizabeth’s father became King George VI, making the young princess heir apparent.

George VI, whose struggles to overcome a stutter were portrayed in the 2010 film The King’s Speech, endeared himself to the nation when he refused to leave London as bombs fell during the early months of World War II.

Elizabeth followed her father in leading by example, joining the Auxiliary Territorial Service in early 1945, becoming the first female member of the royal family to join the armed services as a full-time active member. On her 21st birthday, she dedicated her life to the nation and the Commonwealth, the voluntary association of states that grew out of the British Empire.

“I declare before you all that my whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your service and the service of our great imperial family to which we all belong,” she said in a radio address broadcast around the world.

In 1952, the young princess embarked on a tour of the Commonwealth in place of her ailing father. She was at a remote Kenyan lodge, where she and her husband, Prince Philip, watched baboons from the treetops, when she heard her father had died.

She immediately returned to London, disembarking the plane in black mourning clothes, to begin her life as queen. She has reigned ever since, with crown and scepter on big occasions, but more commonly wearing a broad-brimmed hat and carrying a simple handbag.

In the intervening seven decades, the queen has shared confidences with 14 prime ministers and met 13 U.S. presidents.

Once a year, she travels the mile or so from Buckingham Palace to the House of Lords for the ceremonial opening of Parliament. And when world leaders come to call, she hosts state banquets during which her diamonds flash under the TV lights and presidents and prime ministers worry about whether to bow and when to offer a toast.

But it is the less-lavish events that give the queen a link to the public.

At the garden parties that honor the service of everyone from soldiers and charity workers to long-serving school librarians and crossing guards, guests wear festive hats and drink tea as they try to catch a glimpse of the queen on the lawn outside Buckingham Palace. The honorees can spot her at a distance, as it is said she favors bright colors so the public can spot her in a crowd.

Then there is the annual wreath laying at the memorial to those who have died during conflicts around the world, as well as the numerous school openings, hospice visits and tours of maternity wards that have filled her days.

Britain’s longest-serving monarch, the only sovereign most Britons have ever known, has been a constant presence from the Suez Crisis of 1956, when Egypt’s seizure of the Suez Canal underscored Britain’s declining might, through the labor strife of the 1980s and the 2005 terror attacks in London.

When Prince Philip died during the pandemic, she donned a black face mask and sat alone during his socially distanced funeral, silently demonstrating that the rules applied to everyone — particularly her.

“She’s not beholden to the electorate. She’s not dependent on her latest hit or her latest movie,” said Emily Nash, royal editor of HELLO! magazine. “She’s just there. She does what she does. She carries out her duties without ever complaining or making any personal drama. And people respect her for that.”

Not that there haven’t been controversies.

In the early 1990s, criticism of the monarchy increased amid reports of the queen’s private wealth and concerns about the expense of the monarchy. In 1992, the queen agreed to pay the expenses of most of her family and become the first monarch to pay income taxes since the 1930s.

Tensions flared again in 1997 when the royal family’s silence after the death of Princess Diana, the ex-wife of Prince Charles, fueled the resentment of Diana’s many fans.

Even now, the monarchy is struggling to distance itself from the scandal caused by a sex abuse lawsuit filed against Prince Andrew, the queen’s second son, and the fallout after two of the royal family’s most popular members, Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan, ditched their royal duties and departed for California.

But the queen has transcended scandal and remained popular throughout it all, said Kelly Beaver, CEO of polling firm Ipsos UK, which has tracked her popularity for decades.

“Part of this is because she is so synonymous with … the monarchy, which is something the British people are proud of,” Beaver said.

Still, Tiwa Adebayo, a social media commentator and writer who inherited a fascination with the monarchy from her grandmother, believes younger people want “more transparency” — to see the royal family move beyond the adage of “never complain, never explain” that has typified the queen’s reign.

For the queen, Sunday is likely to be bittersweet, marking both her long reign and the 70th anniversary of her father’s death.

“I’ve always thought that one of her philosophies really was that, you know, she just wanted to be a really good daughter to her father and fulfill all his hopes for her,” Vickers said. “And, you know, assuming that there is an afterlife and they meet again, my goodness he will be able to thank her for doing just that.” 
…

Queen Elizabeth II offered her support Saturday to have the Duchess of Cornwall become Queen Camilla — using a special Platinum Jubilee message to make a significant decision in shaping the future of the British monarchy.

In remarks delivered on the eve of the 70th anniversary of her accession to the throne, the monarch expressed a “sincere wish” that Camilla be known as “Queen Consort” when her eldest son, Charles, the Prince of Wales, succeeds her as expected to the throne. In giving her blessing, the popular and respected sovereign is placing significant heft behind the move.

“When, in the fullness of time, my son Charles becomes king, I know you will give him and his wife Camilla the same support that you have given me,” the monarch wrote. “And it is my sincere wish that, when that time comes, Camilla will be known as Queen Consort as she continues her own loyal service.”

The message ties up a loose end that has hung over the House of Windsor since Charles’ divorce from the popular Princess Diana.

It took years for many in Britain to forgive Charles, the man whose admitted infidelity brought such pain to “the people’s princess” before she died in a Paris car crash in 1997. But the public mood softened after Charles married Camilla Parker Bowles in 2005 and she became the Duchess of Cornwall.

Although Camilla played a significant role in the breakup of Charles’ first marriage, her down-to-Earth style and sense of humor eventually won over many Britons. Her warmth softened Charles’ hard edges and made him appear more approachable, if not happier, as he cut ribbons, unveiled plaques and waited for his chance to reign.

At the time of their marriage, royal aides had suggested that Camilla did not want to be called queen and “intended” to be known instead as Princess Consort — a first in British history. But the careful use of the word “intend” led to the possibility of change later on.

The move is seen as an effort to safeguard a smooth transition to the future as the queen navigates the twilight of her reign.

“This is the most extraordinary message. The queen is ensuring the transition, when it comes, to her son as king is as seamless and trouble-free as possible,” former BBC royal correspondent Peter Hunt told the Press Association. “She’s future-proofing an institution she’s served for 70 years. And for Camilla, the journey from being the third person in a marriage to queen-in-waiting is complete.”

The queen also paid tribute to the Duke of Edinburgh, who died last year after decades of serving as her consort, and to the work of her mother.

“I am fortunate to have had the steadfast and loving support of my family. I was blessed that, in Prince Philip, I had a partner willing to carry out the role of consort and unselfishly make the sacrifices that go with it,” she wrote. “It is a role I saw my own mother perform during my father’s reign.”

Earlier Saturday, Elizabeth attended her largest public engagement since a recent health scare, mingling with guests at a reception ahead of her platinum anniversary.

The monarch met with members of the local community during a tea at Sandringham, her country estate in eastern England where she normally spends the anniversary. The 95-year-old queen leaned on a walking stick as she chatted with guests.

Despite recent concerns about her health, Elizabeth moved freely and appeared to use her stick more to lean on when she stopped moving rather than depending on it as she walked around the room.

The monarch’s health has been a concern since she cancelled a two-day trip to Northern Ireland in October and was quietly admitted to a hospital overnight for preliminary tests. Doctors advised her to rest and restrict herself to light duties.

But in her message, she promised she would continue to serve and said she was optimistic about the upcoming Platinum Jubilee celebrations.

“I am reminded of how much we can be thankful for,” she wrote. “These last seven decades have seen extraordinary progress socially, technologically and culturally that have benefitted us all; and I am confident that the future will offer similar opportunities to us and especially to the younger generations in the United Kingdom and throughout the Commonwealth.”

The sovereign signed the message “Your servant Elizabeth R.”
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One person was killed and four others were injured in an avalanche in western Austria on Saturday, police said, a day after two other avalanches killed seven skiers as heavy snowfall followed by warmer weather made for unusually dangerous conditions. 

Austrian broadcaster ORF said the person killed in Saturday’s avalanche in the municipality of Schmirn, in the state of Tyrol, was a 58-year-old local man. 

In the same province, a 42-year-old Austrian mountain- and ski-guide and four Swedish skiers, all men in their 40s, were killed on Friday when an avalanche near the town of Spiss on the border with Switzerland buried them completely, police said. 

Another member of the group, a 43-year-old Swede, was able to phone for help and was rescued, police said. 

Two Austrian skiers were killed in a third incident. 

Emergency services found the bodies of the two Austrian skiers, a woman, age 61, and a 60-year-old man, early Saturday local time (2340 GMT on Friday) after their relatives said they could no longer contact them, police said. 
…

A Ukrainian flag wrapped around her shoulders, pensioner Iryna Gayeva had a simple message as she demonstrated in Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, on Saturday, 40 kilometers from the Russian border.  
“We do not want Russia,” she told AFP, as she joined several thousand people for a “Unity March” called by nationalist groups.  

“I was born in Crimea. That’s enough, they’ve already taken a homeland from me. I grew up here, I live here, my parents are from Russia, but I don’t want to see any occupiers,” she said.

“This is my home, these are my rules.”  

Russia seized the Crimea Peninsula in 2014 and began fueling a separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine.

The Kremlin has now massed more than 100,000 troops across the frontier, sparking fears from the West that Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning a major incursion.  

Moscow denies it will invade and blames NATO for threatening its security by expanding into eastern Europe.  

Kharkiv, an industrial and university center with 1.5 million inhabitants, many Russian-speaking, is more than 400 kilometers east of the capital, Kyiv, and right next to the Russian border.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned that, given the population’s strong links to Russia, the city could be a prime target for occupation if the situation escalates.  

2014 unrest

There appear to be grounds for concern.  

In 2014, as Russian-backed separatists took over two other eastern cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, fears swirled that Kharkiv could be the next domino to fall.  

Pro-Moscow protesters attacked the regional administration with Molotov cocktails, as violence broke out with pro-Ukrainian activists.  

Eventually Ukrainian forces managed to stop Kharkiv from slipping from Kyiv’s grasp, saving it from being engulfed in a conflict that has cost 13,000 lives in the past eight years.  

And now, those demonstrating insisted that Russian forces would not be welcome in Kharkiv as pro-Ukrainian patriotism has rocketed.

“In 2014, it was panic,” Gayeva recalled. “This time there is no panic but anger.”

At her side, Nadia Rynguina is even more categorical.  

“The situation has changed, we have an army worthy of the name, we have citizens ready to defend the country,” she explained.

In the event of an intervention, Yury Shmylyov, 79, warned that “it will not be a walk in the park” for the Russian army.  

“In 2014, we were afraid to display a blue and yellow flag here, but now look,” he said, pointing at the gathered crowd.  

‘Constant threat’

Behind a large banner reading “Kharkiv is Ukraine,” the demonstrators marched between the city’s two main squares in subzero temperatures.

They chanted patriotic slogans, sang the national anthem and carried signs thanking Britain and the United States for ramping up arms deliveries to Ukraine.  

Galyna Kuts, a political scientist in Kharkiv and a member of the regional legislature, said Zelenskiy’s warning of potential occupation set nerves jangling.  

“Everyone was calling each other to ask what to do, where to flee,” she said as she attended the rally.   

But after years “living under constant threat of invasion,” she insists residents in Kharkiv have steeled themselves for anything.  

“People have changed, they know how to survive,” she said.  

Oleksandr Gerasimov has filled up his tank and is ready to evacuate his family if necessary.  

But the 39-year-old demonstrator insists he is calm as he does not believe Moscow will risk an attack against Ukraine’s bolstered armed forces.  

“Russia would suffer intolerable losses,” he said. 
…

Two prominent European leaders are scheduled to travel to the capitals of Russia and Ukraine in the coming days for talks with their counterparts about diplomatic measures to ease the growing tensions surrounding Moscow’s potential invasion of Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron is due in Moscow on Monday and Kyiv on Tuesday. The following week, Germany’s Olaf Scholz is set to visit Kyiv on Feb. 14 and Moscow on Feb. 15.

According to a New York Times report, while Russia’s troops in Ukraine are not ready to launch a total invasion of Ukraine, sections of its army “appear to be in the final stages of readiness for military action should the Kremlin order it.”

Moscow has dispatched an additional 10,000 troops to the region, the Times said, in addition to the thousands of troops already deployed to the area.

Meanwhile, the White House dismissed a Friday meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in which the leaders unveiled a strategic alliance geared against the U.S.

“What we have control over is our own relationships and the protection of our own values and also looking for ways to work with countries even where we disagree,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters during her briefing.

In the meeting, Xi endorsed Putin’s demands to end NATO expansion and get security guarantees from the West, issues that have led to Russia’s standoff with the United States and its allies over Ukraine. Meanwhile Moscow voiced its support for Beijing’s stance that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.

The two leaders met at Beijing’s Diaoyutai State Guesthouse Friday afternoon, according to China’s state broadcaster CCTV, hours before the beginning of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which diplomats from the U.S., Britain and other countries are boycotting over human rights abuses.

The broadcaster did not provide details of the meeting, but Xi and Putin, both of whom have been criticized by the U.S. for their foreign and domestic policies, issued a joint statement underscoring their displeasure with “interference in the internal affairs” of other countries.

The joint statement proclaimed a new China-Russia strategic “friendship” that “has no limits” and no “forbidden areas of cooperation.”

Escalating conflict

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke by phone Friday with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to discuss Russia’s military buildup along Ukraine’s border and the threat of armed conflict.

He affirmed “the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty” and made clear the United States is willing to “impose swift and severe consequences on Russia if it chooses to escalate” the situation, according to a State Department statement.

On Thursday, a senior Biden administration official said the U.S. has information indicating that Russia has developed a plan to stage a false Ukrainian military attack on Russian territory and leverage it as a pretext for an attack against Ukraine.

Fabricating a video of such an attack is one of several options the Kremlin is formulating to give it an excuse to invade Ukraine, the official said.

“The video will be released to underscore a threat to Russia’s security and to underpin military operations,” said the official, who requested anonymity.

“This video, if released, could provide Putin the spark he needs to initiate and justify military operations against Ukraine,” the official added.

The official said the Biden administration is disclosing specifics about Russia’s alleged plans to dissuade Russia from carrying out such plans.

In an interview Thursday with MSNBC, U.S. deputy national security adviser Jonathan Finer said, “We don’t know definitively that this is the route they are going to take, but we know that this is an option under consideration.”   

  

 

 

 

 

 

 
…

Western nations have threatened sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine. While leaders have given few details about exactly what measures they plan to take or precisely what Russian actions would trigger sanctions, they have promised to make any new sanctions more punishing than previous efforts. Here is a look at what the United States and European countries might be considering.

Technology

The White House has said it is considering imposing export controls on Russia, which would restrict Russia’s ability to obtain the integrated circuits necessary for a range of technologies including smartphones, televisions, aircraft avionics and machine tools. Such an action could include adding Russia to the most restrictive group of countries under export controls, which includes Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Syria. The United States imposed similar technology sanctions during the Cold War to limit Russia’s ability to make technological developments.

Banks

Sanctions already exist against some smaller Russian state-owned banks, imposed after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Western countries could consider toughening the existing sanctions or expanding the list of financial institutions facing curbs, including adding some private Russian banks. Sanctions could also target the state-backed Russian Direct Investment Fund, which invests in leading Russian companies.

Natural gas

The recently completed Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany has been considered for sanctions. The gas line is still awaiting final approval from Germany, and Berlin has come under pressure to deny its approval. Germany has indicated that it might consider not approving Nord Stream 2; however, Europe’s energy dependence on Russia makes it difficult to take this route.

The U.S. and the European Union already have sanctions in place in Russia’s energy sector, including those imposed on the state-owned gas company Gazprom. Future efforts could deepen those sanctions or increase the number of companies affected by them.

SWIFT

One of the toughest actions the United States and the EU could take against Russia is cutting Moscow out of the SWIFT financial system that is used by banks around the world. If such a move were made, Russia could not engage in most international financial transactions, including taking international profits from oil and gas production.

This action was considered but not taken when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Russia said at the time that being cut off from SWIFT would be equivalent to a declaration of war. Since then, Russia has tried to develop its own financial transfer system called SPFS, but that system has struggled to gain traction.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has expressed doubts about kicking Russia out of SWIFT, saying, “The toughest stick won’t always ultimately be the most intelligent sword.”

Dollar

Another possible strong financial measure against Russia would be blocking Russia’s access to the U.S. dollar. Without access to the U.S. banking system, Russian companies would find it difficult to conduct routine transactions and purchases. The United States could impose this sanction alone, without approval from other countries, unlike the SWIFT option. U.S. President Joe Biden has indicated to reporters that the United States is studying this option.

Bonds

The United States has already banned U.S. financial institutions from buying Russian government bonds directly from state institutions. Biden took the action over accusations that Russia interfered in the U.S. election. Further sanctions on Russian bond markets could ban secondary market trading.

Individuals

Governments often target specific individuals for sanctions, imposing travel restrictions and barring them from holding overseas assets. Citing data from the Office of Foreign Assets Control, The Associated Press reports that 735 Russian individuals are still under U.S. sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The U.S. and British governments have threatened to sanction Moscow’s elite if Russia invades Ukraine again. Some U.S. lawmakers want the Biden administration to consider sanctioning Alina Kabaeva, an Olympic gold medalist in rhythmic gymnastics reported to be the girlfriend of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The individuals we have identified are in or near the inner circles of the Kremlin and play a role in government decision-making or are at a minimum complicit in the Kremlin’s destabilizing behavior,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters in late January.

Putin

Putin himself is also under consideration for targeted sanctions. U.S. lawmakers have proposed sanctions against the Russian president and Biden has said he would consider such measures. Moscow has said any sanctions against Putin would not hurt him personally but would be “politically destructive.”

Some information in this report came from Reuters and The Associated Press.

 
…

A giant, $500 million yacht reportedly being built for Amazon founder Jeff Bezos faces a delivery problem: It may require dismantling a beloved, historic bridge in Rotterdam that is blocking its passage to the sea. 

Reports this week that the Dutch city had agreed to take apart the recently renovated Koningshaven Bridge, known locally as De Hef, sparked anger. On Facebook, locals are proposing to pelt the yacht with rotten eggs when it passes through. 

However, a spokeswoman for Mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb told The Associated Press on Friday that while a shipbuilder had requested a temporary dismantling of the bridge this summer, no permit has yet been sought or granted. 

Many Rotterdam residents are still concerned. 

“I think it’s easy to understand why it’s so controversial because this is a very beautiful, recently restored old bridge,” Lizette Touber said. “It really is our heritage. And I think that if the rich can pay for it to be opened, which normally nobody else could do, then you get controversy.” 

First a permit, then a decision

In a written statement, Aboutaleb, who is on a visit to Colombia, said that once a request for a permit was submitted. it would be assessed based on factors including economic impact, environmental nuisance and possible risks to the “monumental structure” of the bridge.  

“When the permit has been applied for, the municipality can make a decision about this, details can be further elaborated and a plan can be made in the event of a positive decision,” the statement said. 

The municipality declined to comment on who owns the yacht in question or identify the shipbuilder. An email sent to Amazon seeking comment went unanswered. A report by Bloomberg in May 2021 said the yacht was being built for Bezos by Oceanco at a cost of “upwards of $500 million.” 

The current Hef railway bridge was opened for trains to cross the Maas River in 1927 and taken out of service in 1993 when it was replaced by a tunnel. Public protests spared it from demolition, and it eventually underwent a three-year renovation that ended in 2017. The middle section of the bridge can be raised to allow ships to pass underneath, but apparently not high enough for the new yacht’s tall masts. 

Yeas, nays

Ton Wesselink, chairman of a Rotterdam historical society, feared that a decision to allow one yacht through the bridge could set a precedent for others. 

“The thing we don’t want is that this yacht issue will open the possibility for shipbuilders to use it the same way,” he said in an email to AP. 

But there were voices of support for the proposal. 

“I think it’s fine. Let Bezos pay a high price. It creates work. I only see upsides,” said Rotterdam resident Ria van den Vousten.  

“If it is paid for and everybody makes some money, don’t complain. Don’t talk, but act, as we say in Rotterdam,” she added. 
…

With tensions between Russian and Ukraine intensifying steadily, European countries are concerned the flow of gas from Russia will be affected. Oksana Bedratenko looks at how Russia’s actions against Ukraine may affect Europe’s energy sector. Anna Rice narrates her story.
…

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO, the post-World War II alliance forged between a victorious America and the conflict-battered countries of Western Europe, has often been dubbed a Cold War relic. 

 

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s favorite adjective for NATO on the campaign trial was “obsolete.” Two years ago, French President Emmanuel Macron declared the organization “brain-dead.” NATO was mocked by other critics as an alliance in search of a mission — ridicule fanned by Western alliance officials forever churning out strategic concept papers seeking to define the alliance’s post-Cold War purpose. 

 

No explanation now seems necessary about NATO’s mission, thanks to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who appears to have handed Western powers the opportunity to revive the Western alliance, according to Ian Bremmer, an American political scientist and founder of the Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. 

 

“Putin single-handedly strengthening NATO,” Bremmer tweeted on the announcement that alliance members are placing more forces on standby and reinforcing Eastern European countries with more ships and warplanes in response to Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s borders in what historians say is the biggest deployment of forces since 1945. 

 

“So far, the primary geopolitical impact of Russian escalation of the Ukraine conflict has been to strengthen NATO,” he added. If one of Putin’s aims with the military build-up is to weaken the Western military alliance, it appears to be backfiring, Bremmer and others say. 

 

Transatlantic differences had long dogged NATO.  

“One can trace these differences back to the U.S. decision under President George W. Bush to invade Iraq, continued under President Barack Obama’s ‘nation-building at home’ and ‘pivot to Asia,’ and deepened under President Trump’s ‘America First’ policies,” noted Kurt Volker, a former American envoy to NATO, a year ago in a commentary entitled “Reviving NATO Won’t Be Easy.” 

 

On Russia, China and defense spending, the “United States and European allies have major, deeply embedded substantive interests and in some cases serious differences. Bridging them indeed requires a better tone. But it will also take Europe to adopt a more global and strategic approach than it has in recent years, or it will disappoint the Biden administration just as much as it did its predecessors,” Volker warned. 

 

What a difference a crisis makes! Despite disagreements over the tactics employed to deter Putin from any further military incursions into Ukraine — something Russian officials deny is being considered — many long-time NATO-watchers have praised Washington for what they say is a good job in keeping NATO allies united overall in response to Russia’s threats against Ukraine. 

 

Bremmer suspects this may have surprised the Russian leader.  

“Surely not what Putin expected given U.S. unilateralism in the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle,” he said, a reference to the Biden administration’s decision last year to exit Afghanistan in what some NATO allies considered a badly planned and premature evacuation. 

 

Like others, he thinks Putin may have reckoned there would be far more NATO divisions than have emerged so far, given not only lingering European frustrations over the Afghan withdrawal but also the retirement of the experienced Angela Merkel from German politics and French President Macron’s unpredictability and advocacy of a European Union-based defense alliance to supersede NATO. 

 

Benjamin Haddad, senior director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, a research group in New York, told VOA recently, “Putin may think this is the right moment to act, with Germany going through a political transition and with France heading toward an election.” He added, “But I do think that would be a miscalculation.” 

Haddad has maintained since the beginning of the year that Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will “want to show to the Biden administration that Germany can be a good transatlantic partner,” despite serious splits within his governing coalition and his own Social Democrat Party. 

 

Last month some NATO members identified Germany as the weak link in the alliance, criticizing it for appearing not to share the same sense of urgency about Russian military threats displayed by the United States and neighboring European nations. 

 

There remain frustrations with Germany over its refusal to send lethal weapons to Ukraine, and to block others from supplying Kyiv with German-made military equipment. And Scholz, who is trying to balance his country’s membership in the Western alliance with its close ties to Russia, is still being criticized for his ambiguity over whether Berlin is prepared in the event of war to cancel the just-completed Nord Stream 2 under-sea pipeline, which will pump natural gas from Russia to Germany. 

 

But some NATO and EU officials say Scholz is increasingly being forced into line with the U.S. and other NATO countries because of Moscow’s increasingly bellicose language and aggressive behavior. 

 

Ursula von der Leyen, who is the European Commission president and a former German defense minister, underlined Thursday that Nord Stream 2 would have to be sanctioned if Russia invades. 

“Nord Stream 2 cannot be excluded from the sanctions list, that is very clear,” Von der Leyen said in an interview with the Handelsblatt and Les Echos newspapers. The commission president said the future of the pipeline, which is yet to receive regulatory approval in Berlin or Brussels, would depend “on Russia’s behavior.” 

 

On the core issues, NATO leaders are of one mind — they have stayed united in rejecting as non-starters the Russian demand that there be no further enlargement of the Western alliance, and they have all flatly refused to roll back the alliance’s military presence in the former Soviet satellite states of Central Europe. 

 

And they have all warned of severe consequences if the Kremlin decides to mount another attack on Ukraine in a repeat of 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula and used armed proxies to seize a large part of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, bordering Russia. 

 

Russia’s military build-up has also revived talk in Finland and Sweden of joining NATO. 

Finland’s president, Sauli Niinisto, this year, reiterated his country’s right to join NATO if it decides to, a flat rejection of the Russian demand that NATO admit no new members. In a New Year address, the Finnish leader said, “Finland’s room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide.” 

 

Former American diplomat Daniel Fried, who served as assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs and is a former ambassador to Poland, says while the instincts of European NATO members is one of alarm, he’s not getting the impression that the Europeans will cut and run and give Putin his way.  

“I’m just not getting that sense,” he said. 

 

“There would be a bigger impact if all NATO countries sent equipment to Ukraine, but it’s not that unusual for some member countries to do some things and others not,” said David Kramer, who was an assistant secretary of State in the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush. “There have been a number of NATO operations in which not all member states participated,” he added. 

 

Hans Kundnani, a director at Britain’s Chatham House, said, “It’s not necessarily a problem to have different parts of the coalition, as it were, different heads of government, trying different approaches to Russia. It’s not necessarily a problem if they’re coordinated.” 

 
…

The White House dismissed a Friday meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in which the leaders unveiled a strategic alliance geared against the U.S.  

“What we have control over is our own relationships and the protection of our own values and also looking for ways to work with countries even where we disagree,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters during her briefing.  

In the meeting, Xi endorsed Putin’s demands to end NATO expansion and get security guarantees from the West, issues that have led to Russia’s standoff with the United States and its allies over Ukraine. Meanwhile Moscow voiced its support for Beijing’s stance that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.   

The two leaders met at Beijing’s Diaoyutai State Guesthouse Friday afternoon, according to China’s state broadcaster CCTV, hours before the beginning of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which diplomats from the U.S., Britain and other countries are boycotting over human rights abuses.  

The broadcaster did not provide details of the meeting, but Xi and Putin, both of whom have been criticized by the U.S. for their foreign and domestic policies, issued a joint statement underscoring their displeasure with “interference in the internal affairs” of other countries.  

The joint statement proclaimed a new China-Russia strategic “friendship” that “has no limits” and no “forbidden areas of cooperation.”  

Stacie Goddard, the Mildred Lane Kemper Professor of Political Science who teaches great power rivalries at Wellesley College, says the move is designed to counter Washington’s narrative that Moscow and Beijing are acting aggressively on Ukraine and Taiwan, by claiming that it is the U.S. that is interfering in their spheres of influence.  

“What they’re saying is that the United States is attempting to change the status quo,” Goddard told VOA. “They’re portraying themselves in many ways as standing up to a revisionist and aggressive United States.”   

Goddard added that in the past Beijing has been reluctant to appear to be acting directly in concert with Russia. “This is really a step towards making it clear, they are acting together,” she added.  

Escalating conflict 

China’s expressions of support for Russia comes as Moscow’s dispute with Ukraine threatens to escalate into armed conflict.     

On Thursday, a senior Biden administration official said the U.S. has information indicating that Russia has developed a plan to stage a false Ukrainian military attack on Russian territory and leverage it as a pretext for an attack against Ukraine.    

Fabricating a video of such an attack is one of several options the Kremlin is formulating to give it an excuse to invade Ukraine, the official said.   

“The video will be released to underscore a threat to Russia’s security and to underpin military operations,” said the official, who requested anonymity.   

“This video, if released, could provide Putin the spark he needs to initiate and justify military operations against Ukraine,” the official added.   

The official said the Biden administration is disclosing specifics about Russia’s alleged plans to “dissuade” Russia from carrying out such plans.    

In an interview Thursday with MSNBC, U.S. deputy national security adviser Jonathan Finer said, “We don’t know definitively that this is the route they are going to take, but we know that this is an option under consideration.”  

NATO welcomes more US troops  

The Biden administration disclosed the intelligence after NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday welcomed U.S. plans to deploy more troops to Europe and said NATO is considering sending additional battle groups to the southeastern part of its alliance amid tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border.    

The U.S. on Wednesday announced plans to dispatching 2,000 more troops to Europe, most of them to Poland, and move 1,000 troops from Germany to Romania to bolster NATO’s eastern flank countries.           

Stoltenberg told reporters that while NATO is preparing for the possibility that Russia may take military action, NATO remains ready to engage in “meaningful dialogue” and find a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.  

 ”NATO continues to call on Russia to de-escalate. Any further Russian aggression would have severe consequences and carry a heavy price,” he said.     

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters Thursday that the U.S. deployment is heightening tensions in the region.  

The United States and other Western allies have been preparing economic sanctions to level against Russia in hopes of persuading Russian President Vladimir Putin to pull back the more than 100,000 troops Russia has near the border with Ukraine. Russia has denied it plans to invade.     

Stoltenberg said Thursday there has been a “significant movement of Russian military forces into Belarus,” Ukraine’s northern neighbor, where they are taking part in joint military drills that began Thursday instead of later this month as originally planned.   

 ”This is the biggest Russian deployment there since the Cold War,” Stoltenberg said, referring to what he said were 30,000 troops, fighter jets and missile systems.     

Russia has not disclosed how many troops or the amount of military hardware it has in Belarus.    

Thursday’s exercises, which are expected to continue until February 20, involved live fire, according to images released by the Belarusian defense minister. They also showed fighter jets in the sky and tanks firing and maneuvering.  

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu witnessed the exercises after arriving in Minsk Thursday, and he also met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.   

Russia has demanded that NATO pull back troops and weapons deployed in eastern European member countries, and to make clear that Ukraine cannot join the 30-member military alliance.  

 NATO and Ukraine have rejected those demands, saying countries are free to pick their allies.     

But Stoltenberg said Thursday that NATO is ready to talk to Russia about relations between the two sides, and about risk reduction, increased transparency and arms control.     

EU plans united response   

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Thursday the 27-nation bloc is planning a response to letters Russia sent earlier this week to several EU members about its demand for security guarantees.  

During a visit to Helsinki, von der Leyen told reporters, “We are united in the European Union and therefore it is clear that the response will mirror, will reflect that unity.”  

In Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Thursday he welcomed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s offer to mediate the crisis and to host peace negotiations. Zelenskiy’s comments came after the two leaders signed a free trade deal and other agreements while meeting in Kyiv.     

Erdogan previously suggested Turkey, a NATO member that also has good relations with Russia, could act as a mediator.   

Erdogan’s visit to Ukraine is the latest in a series of visits to Kyiv by world leaders and diplomats to show support for Ukraine and try to advance a peaceful resolution to the crisis.   

Some information for this report came from Agence France-Presse and Reuters.  

 

 
…

Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, announced Friday it has appointed NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to take over as its next governor after his term leading the military alliance ends later this year.

The central bank announced the appointment in a statement on its website, saying Stoltenberg had been appointed by Norway’s King Harald V. 

Stoltenberg will take over from current Norges Bank Governor Øystein Olsen, who is retiring later this month after holding the position since Jan. 1, 2011.

The 62-year-old Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, also served as finance minister from 1996 to 2000. He had previously said if he got the central bank governor position, he wouldn’t be able to start before leaving his NATO job on Oct. 1.

The central bank statement said it hopes Stoltenberg can start in his new role by Dec. 1. Until then, Norges Bank Deputy Governor Ida Wolden Bache will run the bank in an interim capacity beginning March 1.

In a statement, Norway’s current finance minister, Trygve Slagsvold, said he had been “concerned with identifying the best central bank governor for Norway, and I’m convinced that this is Jens Stoltenberg.”

The appointment ends speculation that Stoltenberg would stay on at NATO, and the search for a successor must now begin ahead of a meeting of member nation leaders in June this year.

Some information for this report was provided by the Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse.

 
…

Boston Celtics center Enes Kanter Freedom, an 11-year National Basketball Association (NBA) veteran, is known for his activism both on and off the court. A devout Muslim, he’s a prominent critic of the government of his native Turkey and the Chinese Communist Party. Turkey revoked his passport in 2017 and jailed his father, who was released in 2020. On Chinese search engines the 6-foot-10-inch basketball player’s name brings up no results since he began opposing Beijing’s alleged mistreatment of the Uyghurs, a Muslim minority, in Xinjiang.  China denies the allegations of human rights violations, but Kanter comes up as “player No. 13” in searches for the Celtics scoring table.

VOA Mandarin spoke with the Swiss-born, Turkish-raised NBA player last month in Boston. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. 

 

Q: Mr. Freedom, you have a unique last name. What does it mean to you, since it’s your name of choice and not from your parents?

A: I remember my first time coming to America in 2009, I came here to play basketball and go to school at the same time. I remember we were in the locker room and one of my teammates criticized the president of America. And I was very scared for him because I thought that he was going to be thrown in jail.

I even asked him … ‘Hey, you know … aren’t you scared?’ He turned around and laughed and said, ‘This is not Turkey.’ And he tried to explain to me a little bit about what freedom of speech means. I was still very shocked and amazed at the same time, and I researched, and I found out that not every country in the world is like Turkey.

And that’s why I wanted to make that word part of me and carry it everywhere I go. I also want all the young kids out there, NBA fans, sports fans out there, to just research about what freedom means and (that’s) why I chose that last name. 

 

Q: Recently former NBA star Yao Ming invited you to visit China. You accepted his invitation and invited him to visit labor camps with you. Do you think that Yao Ming will come along,  and will (Chinese President) Xi Jinping give you a visa?

A: I really wanted to go, and I wanted to go see. But I told him, ‘I don’t want propaganda. I don’t want a luxury tour of China. I want to see the real China and show the whole world what’s going on over there.’ I said that if I’m coming to China, let’s go visit (Uyghur) labor camps in Xinjiang, let’s go visit Tibet together. Let’s go visit Hong Kong. And after that, we can fly to Taiwan and see what democracy means.

And obviously, after I posted that video, I was very shocked that he (Yao Ming) blocked me on Instagram. I even put a tweet out and said, ‘That’s what the little kids do.’ I think what I will say to Yao Ming is: ‘Stop being a puppet of the Chinese Communist Party. Stop being a mouthpiece of Communist Party and Xi Jinping, if you want to have a real conversation, you know where I live. Just come here and we can have a conversation.’

 

Q: When people search Enes Kanter Freedom using Chinese search engines, there’re no results. It’s as if you don’t exist. What is your response to that?

A: Well, I’m actually kind of used to this. You know in Turkey, they ban my Twitter account, they censor all my basketball games in the whole country, and they censor my name because they’re scared. They know that I’m exposing them. And now when I saw that the Chinese government is doing the same thing, it actually gave me extra motivation because I know whatever I’m doing is right. Whatever I’m doing is really scaring them.

Q: Does being outspoken on human rights issues make any difference in your life as an NBA star? Have you faced pressure from (Celtics) management, the league, or the sponsors?

A: I remember the first time I put my ‘Free Tibet’ shoes on my feet. There were two gentlemen from the NBA and they came to me on the bench right before the game, and told me that ‘We are begging you take those shoes off.’ And I asked, ‘Am I breaking any rules?’ They said no. Then I told them, ‘Go tell your boss, whoever it is, (NBA Commissioner) Adam Silver, the Celtics owner, and whoever you’re talking to, I’m not taking my shoes off. I don’t care if I get banned or if I get fined.’  And they said OK.

That game was right before my citizenship test, and I was getting ready for it. There are 27 amendments, and my First Amendment (right) is freedom of speech. I didn’t want them to take that away from me.

 

Q:  Being a basketball player and an activist at the same time, does it get a little bit overwhelming sometimes?

A: It could get overwhelming, yes. But at the end of the day knowing that you’re doing this for innocent people will always give you extra hope and motivation. Everyone thinks I’m a basketball player. Yes, I am a basketball player, but I think what I’m doing is bigger than basketball.

I want to make this very clear: I don’t do politics. Some people say that: stay away from politics, focus on basketball.  But there’s a big difference between politics and human rights.

I never said vote for this guy, don’t vote for this guy. I always say we need to free political prisoners, we need to have human rights, we need to have freedom of speech, we need to bring awareness to countries like Taiwan or Ukraine. So I feel like this is bigger than basketball.  

  

 
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A senior U.S. delegation visited Lithuania this week in a show of support for the Baltic state in its growing dispute with China involving Taiwan.

Beijing effectively blocked imports of Lithuanian goods last month after Taiwan was allowed to open a representative office in the capital, Vilnius. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory. The dispute has rapidly escalated into a trade tussle between the West and Beijing.

Jose W. Fernandez, undersecretary for economic growth, energy and the environment, met Lithuanian government ministers in a visit described by the U.S. State Department as showing “continuing strong support for Lithuania in the face of political pressure and economic coercion from the People’s Republic of China.” The two sides discussed the implementation of a $600 million agreement on boosting trade.

Lithuania welcomed the intervention. “We permanently feel U.S. strong political and practical support in our dispute with China over its systemic violations of international trade rules,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a press release.

Taiwan

The dispute began in 2020 when Lithuania’s new government pledged to support what it called “freedom fighters” in Taiwan and criticized Beijing’s human rights record in Hong Kong and Tibet.

In May 2021, Lithuanian lawmakers approved a resolution that described China’s treatment of its Uyghur minority as “genocide.” China has rejected such accusations.

In November of last year, Taiwan officially opened the representative office in Vilnius. Its director, Eric Huang, said the goal was the “strengthening of [the] bilateral relationship comprehensively between Taiwan and Lithuania.”

Lithuania said the opening did not affect its policy toward China or imply any official recognition of Taiwan as independent from Beijing. The move, however, stoked fury in Beijing.

“From the perspective of Beijing, it’s crossing a line, a real red line on how they approach Taiwan. And this is what led later to Beijing downgrading its embassy in Lithuania,” Grzegorz Stec of the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies said in a recent interview with VOA.

Import blockade

In December, China effectively blocked Lithuanian imports by delisting it as a country of origin, meaning goods can’t clear Chinese customs, while pressing multinational businesses to sever ties with the Baltic country.

“And that works not only in some cases for goods that are produced in Lithuania but also goods that include in their supply chain components produced in Lithuania. Also, the European exports that have been transited through Lithuanian ports, they have also been affected,” Stec said.

 

EU challenge

The European Union accuses China of threatening the integrity of its single market and has launched a challenge at the World Trade Organization.

“We are stepping forward to defend the EU’s rights,” EU Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters January 27.

“Since December 1, Chinese customs are banning Lithuanian imports from the Chinese market. … Chinese companies are canceling orders from Lithuania. China is also cutting its exports to Lithuania. Moreover, China is putting pressure on international companies to abandon the use of Lithuanian components in their production,” Dombrovskis said.

It likely will take years for the WTO challenge to be resolved. In the meantime, the EU is working on legal instruments to counter coercive practices.

“This could include really targeting or restricting access for companies from a specific country from the single market. Right now, we don’t really have a clear instrument for doing that,” Stec told VOA.

Lithuanian lifeline

The Taiwan government has offered Lithuania a $1 billion credit program and a separate $200 million fund to boost trade. Lithuania has donated hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 vaccines to Taiwan.

The United States has also stepped in to make up the shortfall caused by China’s blockade. The U.S. Export-Import Bank signed a $600 million export credit agreement with Lithuania, focusing on manufacturing, business services and renewable energy.

But it’s not just about money, Stec said. “Symbolic involvement [by the U.S.] of course supports Lithuania by showing that it’s not isolated in its moves. At the same time, it also makes it harder to unravel the situation because it once again puts it in the spotlight.”

U.S. officials also held talks in Brussels on joint measures to tackle economic coercion.

 

‘Betrayal’

China, meanwhile, accuses Lithuania of “betrayal.”

“The issue between China and Lithuania is a bilateral issue between China and Lithuania, not between China and Europe. We urge Lithuania to correct its mistakes immediately, and not act as a pawn of Taiwan independence separatist and anti-China forces. We also remind the EU to distinguish right from wrong and be alert to Lithuania’s attempts to hijack China-EU relations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters January 27.
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet Friday ahead of the opening ceremony for the 2022 Beijing Olympics, in what is expected to be a show of unity amid each country’s increasingly fraught relationship with the United States.

Though Russia and China do not share a formal alliance, both countries have drawn closer in recent years as they work to counter U.S. influence.

China has been more vocal in supporting Russia, even as Moscow masses more than 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine, raising fears of a conflict. Russia has demanded Ukraine not join NATO and wants the military alliance to pull back troops from Eastern Europe.

Analysts say Russia-China cooperation could make it harder for the United States to punish Moscow in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

An increase in U.S.-Russia hostilities could also divert the attention of U.S. President Joe Biden, who has identified China as his biggest foreign policy priority.

However, China may not welcome any major foreign policy distractions, either.

Beijing on Friday will host the opening ceremony for what will be more than two weeks of Olympic events. Perhaps even more importantly, Xi is in the midst of a crucially important season of domestic political maneuvering meant to shape what is expected to be his indefinite rule over China.

“Beijing wants stability and predictability. They will not welcome foreign turbulence,” said Ryan Hass, a China scholar at the U.S.-based Brookings Institution, in a thread on Twitter.

Xi and Putin, two strongman leaders who preside over authoritarian governments, have a long history. This will be the 38th meeting between the two men, according to Beijing.

In December, Xi said he welcomed the visit by Putin, whom he called his “old friend.” Putin was the first international leader to RSVP for the Beijing Olympics, after the United States announced a diplomatic boycott of the Games over China’s abuses against Uyghur Muslims.

In a letter published earlier this week in China’s official Xinhua news agency, Putin slammed the U.S.-led boycott, lamenting “attempts by a number of countries to politicize sports for their selfish interests.” Putin’s letter also declared that the Russia-China partnership had entered a “new era.”

Russia and China have a long history of working together to block U.S. positions at the United Nations Security Council, where all three are veto-wielding permanent members.

Most recently, China and Russia have found common ground over Ukraine. A recent statement by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred to Russia’s “legitimate security concerns” and called for an end to “Cold War mentality,” a clear reference to what it sees as U.S. foreign policy.

“The Chinese have moved progressively closer to Russian positions,” said Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

This is a major shift from China. During Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and its invasion of Crimea in 2014, China was “not leaning so far in toward their partnership with Russia,” Feigenbaum said, speaking at an online forum.

“The China-Russia partnership looks a lot different to an American not just defense planner but strategic thinker than it would have just six or seven years ago,” he said.

However, China has also called for a lowering of tensions over Ukraine and proposed the implementation of the Minsk agreement, a 2014-15 deal to restore peace following a flare-up of violence along the Russia-Ukraine border.

“China is in a diplomatic logjam,” Hass said. “It would face difficulties and unwelcome turbulence from a conflict in Ukraine, but at the same time it wants to preserve strong relations with Russia and it does not want to do the U.S. any favors.”  
…

With tensions between Russia and Ukraine ratcheting up, some former diplomats and Kremlin watchers are debating the effectiveness of any sanctions imposed on Moscow should it invade its neighbor to the west.  

 

Britain’s former ambassador to Russia, Tony Brenton, has long doubted the efficacy of sanctions, saying they “don’t work on Russia.”  

Brenton has argued “Russia just becomes even more obdurate.” And some critics of sanctions say Russia has been readying itself to withstand more Western penalties — from cutting back using dollars to boosting foreign currency reserves and trimming budgets. Russia has a current account surplus of seven percent of GDP and $638 billion in foreign reserves. 

 

Russian business has also become adept at import substitution and its major banks are well-funded, they say. 

 

Others think sanctions can work if they are sufficiently ruthless, adding that the Kremlin needs to be left in no doubt how biting they will be this time around. 

 

U.S. President Joe Biden and European leaders hope that by raising the price of war for Russia, President Vladimir Putin will be deterred, and they have maintained a steady drumbeat of warnings in recent weeks, saying a further Russian invasion of Ukraine will trigger the harshest economic sanctions ever seen. 

 

New sanctions would also target Russian companies and oligarchs close to the Russian president, Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned this week. 

 

“The individuals we have identified are in or near the inner circles of the Kremlin and play a role in government decision making or are at a minimum, complicit in the Kremlin’s destabilizing behavior,” White House spokesperson Jen Psaki told reporters in Washington. 

 

Russian officials have been dismissive of the warnings. “It’s not often you see or hear such direct threats to attack business,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said at a news conference this week in the Russian capital. 

 

And Peskov promised a significant response that would hurt Western businesses if Russia is sanctioned again. “An attack by a given country on Russian business implies retaliatory measures, and these measures will be formulated based on our interests, if necessary,” he added. 

 

The diplomatic exchanges over sanctions come amid escalating tensions over Russia’s troop buildup on the border with Ukraine. Russia’s troop presence marks the biggest military buildup Europe has seen since the end of the Cold War. 

 

The United States accuses Russia of preparing an invasion, which Moscow has repeatedly denied, accusing Western powers of causing alarm. 

 

There has long been a debate about the effectiveness of sanctions, including among some who were in Biden’s inner foreign policy circle before joining the administration. 

Victoria Nuland, now a top official at the State Department, questioned more than a year ago whether sanctions actually work and argued their use against Moscow needed to be rethought. In Foreign Affairs magazine, she wrote, “U.S. and allied sanctions, although initially painful, have grown leaky or impotent with overuse and no longer impress the Kremlin.” 

 

U.S. officials last year said Biden intended to review the sanctions already imposed on Russia. Some officials say the aim is to readjust the sanctions to increase their immediate impact, as part of an effort to fashion a more rounded and consistent Western strategy toward Russia — one that aligns military, economic, energy, diplomatic and communications policies. Whether an actual review ever took place or whether events overtook a review is not clear. 

 

Kremlin officials have long downplayed the impact of the Western sanctions that began to be imposed in retaliation for Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, apparently hoping to persuade Western governments to abandon them on the grounds that they don’t work. 

 

Aside from sanctions for the Crimea annexation and seizure of part of Ukraine’s Donbass region, Western governments have implemented penalties in response to malicious cyber activities they blame on the Kremlin. Sanctions also have been imposed for alleged human rights abuses and for the March 2018 nerve agent poisoning in Britain of former Russian military intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter. 

 

Some sanctions have been broad economic ones. Others have targeted individuals. 

 

Part of Moscow’s line has been that sanctions are hurting Western countries more than Russia, a position often echoed and amplified by business interests in the West. While the Kremlin has downplayed the significance of the penalties, it also has railed against them and maintained that they should be lifted, saying they amount to “interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state.” 

 

That may suggest sanctions have been more troublesome for Russia than the Kremlin is willing to admit, according to David Kramer, a former assistant secretary of state in the administration of President George W. Bush. “If you look at all the efforts and time and energy the Kremlin has spent on trying to get sanctions lifted, then that would indicate that the Russians feel they have had an impact,” he told VOA recently. 

 

Kramer suspects Russia might have been tempted to encroach further into Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 had the West not imposed sanctions. This time round, though, he’s worried that the sanctions being contemplated won’t in the end be tough enough. 

 

“I am worried that there is not complete agreement on the range of sanctions,” he told VOA. “It’s difficult to get agreement among 27 EU member states, and that’s why, while U.S.-EU unity is preferable, it’s sometimes necessary for the U.S., possibly with the UK and Canada, to go ahead on its own rather than settle for the lowest common denominator,” he said. 

 

“U.S. sanctions are extraterritorial in nature and can have significant impact, especially if we target their banking and energy sectors, as well as Putin and the circle immediately around him, as proposed in recent congressional legislation,” he added.   

 

Some Kremlin watchers question whether targeting high-profile individuals, from oligarchs to government officials, has much of an effect aside from symbolism, arguing sanctioned individuals are compensated by the Kremlin for their losses and are not going to lobby Putin to modify or alter his policies as their status and wealth depend on their loyalty to him. 

 

They say sanctions need to be broad-based and impact key companies in Russia’s important energy, defense and financial sectors. Edward Fishman, a former member of the U.S. secretary of state’s policy planning staff, has long maintained the penalties imposed on Putin’s Russia in the past were watered down because U.S. allies were reluctant to suffer blowback economic costs and wanted to reduce harm to ordinary Russians. 

 

“To change Putin’s behavior, you need to ratchet up sanctions on companies in the energy, defense and financial sectors — that would more likely force the Kremlin to shift its calculus,” he told VOA recently. “The scale of sanctions has to be much greater to prompt a change in behavior.”   
…

Russia said Thursday it is shutting down the operations of German broadcaster Deutsche Welle in response to Berlin’s ban on Russian broadcaster RT DE.

Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement it was closing Deutsche Welle’s Russian bureau, stripping all its staff of their accreditation, and stopping the channel being broadcast on Russian territory.

Germany’s MABB media watchdog and Commission for Licensing and Supervision (ZAK) of media institutions said this week that RT DE could not broadcast in Germany using a Serbian license.
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