Facing criticism that its initial package of sanctions on Russia was not severe enough, the Biden administration on Wednesday both defended its actions and announced an expansion of the penalties, which are meant to deter what appears to be an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On Wednesday afternoon, in a statement released by the White House, President Joe Biden announced that he had included Nord Stream 2 AG, the company that built a controversial natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, as well as its senior executives, on the list of entities being sanctioned.

The move came a day after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that his government would not certify the pipeline, a necessary step in making it operational. The U.S. sanctions effectively prevent a reversal of Scholz’s decision, because it would subject any company doing business with Nord Stream 2 to U.S. sanctions.

“These steps are another piece of our initial tranche of sanctions in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine,” Biden said. “As I have made clear, we will not hesitate to take further steps if Russia continues to escalate.”

Also Wednesday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a news conference that the measures the U.S. and its allies have taken will result in a “vicious feedback loop” that will damage Russia’s economy by raising interest rates, encouraging investors to flee Russian assets and weakening the Russian ruble against other currencies.

Initial response criticized

Biden and his administration faced sharp criticism Tuesday, after announcing sanctions on two Russian banks and a handful of wealthy Russian citizens, and imposing restrictions on the purchase of Russia’s sovereign debt.

The measures fell far short of the devastating response that the Biden administration had spent weeks warning Russia to expect and drew criticism from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

In an appearance on CNN, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez, a Democrat, said, “I think you should use the overwhelming amount of (sanctions) now. You may reserve something like what I call the ‘mother of all sanctions,’ unplugging Russia from the SWIFT financial system. But at the end of the day, when is it that we’re going to be clear to Putin that there are severe consequences for what he’s doing?”

Marsha Blackburn, a Republican senator from Tennessee, said in a statement, “Joe Biden has refused to take meaningful action, and his weakness has emboldened Moscow.”

Expert sees merit in both approaches

There are reasonable arguments for both the incremental approach to sanctions and a “shock and awe” approach that puts them all in place at the same time, said Daniel Ahn, a global fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington and a former chief economist for the U.S. Department of State.

On the incrementalist side, he said, the argument is that, “You may want to keep some ammunition in reserve in case of different contingencies, and also to achieve as much political consensus as possible, both domestically and internationally.”

On the side of full implementation, he said, the argument is that incrementalism weakens the signaling effect of sanctions and “gives time for adjustments to be made” by Russia.

However, Ahn said, the difference between the ultimate effects of each approach may not be as great as advocates think.

“As long as there is a sense of uncertainty, or market expectation that there could be future sanctions coming online, that already has a bit of a chilling effect on existing economic and financial activity,” he said. “The risk or uncertainty that sanctions could impose could deter a lot of private sector behavior, which is where the bite of sanctions come from. So, I think from an actual impact perspective, there’s less daylight between the two (approaches) than people think.”

More steps possible

After announcing what it described as the “first tranche” of sanctions Tuesday, the White House said that more would be coming.

In an appearance on CNN Wednesday morning, Daleep Singh, a deputy national security adviser, repeated that assurance.

“Yesterday was a demonstration effect,” he said. “And that demonstration effect will go higher and higher. Russia is already feeling the pain, and let’s remember the bigger purpose. Our purpose is not to max out on sanctions. That serves no purpose to itself. Our purpose is to prevent a large-scale invasion and … seizure of large cities in Ukraine. Our purpose is to prevent human suffering that could involve tens of thousands of casualties. And our purpose is to prevent a puppet regime from taking over in Kyiv that bends to the will of Moscow. That’s what this is all about.”

Incremental approach

The administration’s response may have been affected by the limited nature of the actions Putin took on Monday. U.S. officials have, for weeks, been warning that a massive invasion of Ukraine was imminent, pointing to the more than 150,000 Russian troops positioned on its borders.

Putin on Monday announced that Russia had recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, two Ukrainian provinces that are partially controlled by Russian-backed separatists. He also said that he would send troops, which he characterized as “peacekeepers,” into the two provinces, although on Wednesday it remained unclear whether Russian soldiers had crossed the border.

In a background briefing Tuesday, a senior administration official characterized Russia’s steps as “the beginning of an invasion” and said the first round of sanctions should be seen as “the beginning of our response.”

U.S. consulting with allies

The sanctions announced by the United States are in addition to similar sanctions being levied by the European Union, United Kingdom, and other U.S. allies. In the U.K., in particular, there have been calls to sanction wealthy Russian oligarchs, many of whom own property in London.

In a statement Wednesday, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman spoke with representatives of France, Germany, Italy and the U.K.

“The deputy secretary and her counterparts underscored that Russia’s flagrant disregard for international law demands a severe response from the international community and agreed to coordinate closely on next steps, including massive additional economic sanctions, should Russia continue to escalate its aggression against Ukraine,” Price said. “They highlighted their continuing commitment to diplomacy, while reiterating that progress can only be made in an environment of de-escalation.”
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For full coverage of the crisis in Ukraine, visit Flashpoint Ukraine.

For the latest developments of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, all times EST:

12:39 a.m.: VOA’s Jamie Dettmer in Kyiv: “Bigger explosion near center of Kyiv. Officials tell me Russians are targeting military infrastructure with Cruise missiles. Also told Russian troops have landed near the port city of Odessa in south. Reports also from officials of Russian soldiers appearing near Kharkiv. Ukrainian officials say there have been hundreds of casuistries. They think the Russians are targeting air defense systems. The weird thing is the morning commute is underway and some people are heading to work in Kyiv.”

12:37 a.m.: VOA’s Eastern Europe Chief Myroslava Gongadze reports Ukrainians will be gathering outside the Russian Embassy in Washington at 1 a.m. EST.

12:15 a.m.: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law Thursday across the country. He urged his countrymen not to panic and said he had spoken to U.S President Joe Biden.

Biden confirmed their conversation via Twitter.

VOA’s Jamie Dettmer tweets about what he’s seeing in Kyiv this morning.

12 a.m.: After the United Nations Security Council’s meeting late Wednesday, U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield a draft resolution would be put on the table Thursday.

A European diplomat said security council members are discussing a resolution that will make clear that Russia is not complying with the U.N. Charter, international law, or council resolution 2202.

Russia would be expected to veto such a measure, but a strong number of members voting for it would increase Moscow’s isolation in the council. Diplomats would then likely move quickly to the General Assembly where it could be adopted without a threat of veto, but with no legal backing.

Some information in this report came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse.
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White House officials have called the latest package of sanctions against Russia “a severe action,” with President Joe Biden saying the economic restrictions will “cut off Russia’s government from Western financing” — powerful claims that some critics and even some Biden allies say are overblown and will do little to stop President Vladimir Putin on his military push toward Ukraine.

The package of U.S. sanctions announced Tuesday and Wednesday include several elements: action to block Russia’s revenue-raising Nord Stream 2 pipeline plus sanctions on two large banks, Russia’s sovereign debt, and a handful of elites with ties to Putin.

Any problem solved?

China, which is Russia’s largest trading partner, came out hard against the very concept of sanctions Wednesday. China, as a rule, follows a policy of noninterference in the internal affairs of other states.

“Our position is that sanctions are never fundamentally effective means to solve problems,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying. “We consistently oppose all illegal unilateral sanctions.”

She cited U.S. Treasury data showing the U.S. has increased its use of sanctions tenfold in the last two decades, and asked, rhetorically: “Have the U.S. sanctions solved any problem? Is the world a better place because of those sanctions? Will the Ukraine issue resolve itself thanks to the U.S. sanctions on Russia? Will European security be better guaranteed thanks to the U.S. sanctions on Russia? … I would also like to point out that the illegal unilateral sanctions by some countries including the U.S. have caused severe difficulties to relevant countries’ economy and livelihood.”

But analyst Chris Miller of the American Enterprise Institute predicted that these sanctions would not do much to Putin’s bottom line.

“The sanctions announced [Tuesday] — notably the sovereign debt sanctions — will have a minor, negative macroeconomic impact on Russia,” he told VOA.

Anti-corruption campaigners have lobbied the administration to target several dozen members of Putin’s inner circle.

“Existing sanctions don’t reach enough of the right people,” Vladimir Ashurkov, director of the Moscow-based Anti-Corruption Foundation, said in a January letter to Biden. “The West must sanction the decision-makers who have made it national policy to rig elections, steal from the budget, and poison. It must also sanction the people who hold their money. Anything less will fail to make the regime change its behavior.”

He was referring to allegations that Putin ordered security officials to poison now-jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

The sanctions announced Tuesday target three men from Ashurkov’s list of 35: top intelligence official Aleksandr Bortnikov, whom Ashurkov described as the man “responsible inter alia for the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny”;  Bortnikov’s son Denis, who is the deputy president and chairman of the Russian state-owned VTB Bank; and Sergei Kiriyenko, a top official in Putin’s office. Ashurkov accuses Denis Bortnikov of “acting as a wallet for his father’s ill-gotten gains.”

The administration also leveled sanctions at Petr Fradkov, chairman of Promsvyazbank, one of the two banks that the administration has sanctioned.

Wiggle room

Jennifer Erickson, an associate professor of political science and international studies at Boston College, said the administration’s decision to impose limited measures at this time could leave it room to seek a diplomatic solution.

“There’s a lot more that the United States could do if they wanted to take really firm, strong action,” she told VOA. “So it’s leaving room to maneuver. And I think there’s a dilemma there for the U.S. You know, do you go really strong now, and hope to make the cost really high to stop further action from Russia? Or do you wait and leave room to sort of escalate your sanctions as Russia might escalate its actions, give it room to back down?”

Administration officials indicated that they were trying to leave space for diplomacy.

“No one should think that it’s our goal to max out on sanctions,” said Daleep Singh, deputy White House national security adviser for international economics. “Sanctions are not an end to themselves.  They serve a higher purpose. And that purpose is to deter and prevent.”

But in Washington, where Biden faces political pressure, that moderation has drawn out his critics.

Republican Senator Ben Sasse described the package as “too little, too late,” arguing that the sanctions should have been issued before Putin ordered troops into the Ukrainian border regions of Luhansk and Donetsk regions — a move that Biden characterized as “the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

“We shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking that today’s incremental sanctions will deter Putin from trying to install a puppet government in Kyiv,” Sasse said.

But perhaps the biggest, loudest criticism came from the nation in Putin’s crosshairs.

“First decisive steps were taken yesterday, and we are grateful for them,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted. “Now the pressure needs to step up to stop Putin. Hit his economy and cronies. Hit more. Hit hard. Hit now.” 
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As Ukraine on Wednesday announced plans for a 30-day state of emergency, residents of the eastern city of Kharkiv appeared calm, saying they were preparing for a possible war but still hopeful their city would escape unscathed. VOA’s Heather Murdock reports from Kharkiv. Camera: Yan Boechat.
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Europe is facing calls to impose immediate tougher sanctions on Russia following President Vladimir Putin’s recognition of the separatist-held regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and his pledge to send in what the Kremlin called “peacekeeping” troops.

“We are anticipating further steps on strengthening sanction pressure,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters Wednesday. “It’s important that Germany decided to halt the certification of the Nord Stream 2. It should be irreversible.”

Nord Stream 2

Berlin announced Tuesday it had officially halted the certification process for Nord Stream 2, the newly built gas pipeline that was designed to take Russian gas directly to Germany. The German move was part of a raft of sanctions announced by Western allies in response to Russia’s actions.

All 27 European Union member states agreed on a range of measures targeting Russian individuals and institutions.

EU sanctions

“We have agreed that the 351 members of the Russia State Duma who voted [for] this violation of international law and territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine will be listed in our sanctions list. We agreed to target 27 individuals and entities who are playing a role in undermining or threatening Ukrainian territorial integrity, sovereignty and independency,” the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said Tuesday.

“And last, but not least, because this is very important, we target the ability of the Russian state and government to access our capital and financial market on services. … This packet of sanctions that has been approved by unanimity by the member states will hurt Russia and it will hurt a lot. And we are doing that in a strong coordination with our partners U.S., UK and Canada,” Borrell told reporters in Paris.

The European sanctions are similar to those imposed by Australia, Canada, Japan and the United States.

“Putin’s actions have really reinforced transatlantic unity. European allies and the United States have been in close coordination, and they seem to be ready to match every move of Putin,” said Sudha David-Wilp, of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in an interview with VOA.

Russian banks

Britain announced sanctions on five Russian banks, which it said included those favored by oligarchs close to the Kremlin: Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank. Britain also imposed asset freezes and travel bans on three Russian billionaires whom it said had supported the invasion of Ukraine: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg.

“We have more individuals that we will target in the event of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and we’ll be targeting them in conjunction with our international allies like the Europeans and like the United States to make sure that these people can’t travel, that their assets are frozen and that they will have nowhere to hide,” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told Sky News Wednesday.

Many British lawmakers say the sanctions don’t go far enough. Speaking during a session of Prime Minister’s Questions in parliament Wednesday, opposition Labor Party leader Keir Starmer urged the government to go further. “We all want to deter aggression in Europe. We are not dealing with breakaway republics. Putin is not a peacekeeper. A sovereign nation has been invaded. The prime minister promised that in the event of an invasion he would unleash a full package of sanctions. If not now, then when?” Starmer said.

Long game

It’s important that the West holds some sanctions in reserve, says analyst Sudha David-Wilp of the German Marshall Fund.

“It’s important that the West not put everything out on the table; an element of surprise is also important. This is probably going to be a long conflict and it’s important for the West to be measured and proportionate.”

Russia has long been preparing for this moment, says analyst Amanda Paul of the European Policy Center in Brussels.

“In the last eight years, Russia has done a lot of things to move itself away from its dependency on Western finance and investments. … They have a huge wealth fund of over $600 billion in gold and foreign currency. They do have the ability to keep going for some time despite the pain. So, it means that the West will need to be very committed and very determined to keep pushing and pushing, even though for sure it’s going to cost them painful, painful moments too,” Paul told The Associated Press.

Russian gas threat

Germany’s decision to effectively cancel the gas pipeline elicited a testy response from Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2,000 for 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas!,” Medevdev wrote on Twitter.

Germany has other options, according to energy analyst Claudia Kemfert of the German Institute for Economic Research, in a recent interview with VOA.

“Germany does not need Nord Stream 2. We have enough infrastructure; we have enough pipelines where we can transport and import natural gas to Germany and we can also rely on natural gas, LNG imports from other countries,” Kemfert said.

Western unity

So far, the Western response has been remarkably united – but that may become more strained, according to Nora Müller of the Körber Foundation, a foreign policy research institution in Berlin.

“The more you ratchet up the sanctions regime, the more painful it also is not only for the one who is sanctioned, but also for the one who imposes the sanctions; that’s the logic of sanctions. So, when we talk about targeting the sanctions at the Russian energy market, obviously that will be very painful for EU member states,” Müller told VOA.
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Top U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday called Russian President Vladimir Putin’s incursion into the occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine an assault on democracy.

“It’s stunning to see – in this day and age – a tyrant rolling into a country. This is the same tyrant who attacked our democracy in 2016,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a press conference, recalling Putin’s interference in U.S. elections.

Pelosi and other top Democrats returning from participation in the Munich Security Conference this week praised President Joe Biden for working with European allies to maintain a united front in deterring Russia.

“The decision to essentially cancel the process of moving forward with the [Nord Stream 2] pipeline, I think, is a very strong indication of the solidarity of NATO and our other allies to punish Putin for this naked aggression and the prospect of further devastating sanctions,” House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff told reporters of the decision to cancel certification of the key pipeline delivering Russian gas to Europe.

Biden announced Tuesday that the U.S. also would sanction Russian officials and banks in response to Putin’s speech claiming Donetsk and Luhansk were independent of Ukraine. The White House is expected to announce additional sanctions this week.

Sequence of sanctions

Despite significant bipartisan unity for deterring Russian aggression in Ukraine, Democrats and Republicans have struggled to agree on how to sequence sanctions to discourage and penalize Putin for incursions into the independent eastern European nation.

An estimated 150,000 Russian troops have massed at the border with Ukraine in recent weeks. Putin’s claim that Donetsk and Luhansk were no longer a part of Ukraine opened the door for so-called Russian “peacekeeping” troops to go into those areas. The U.S. and its allies called this mission a false-flag operation to allow further incursion into Ukraine.

Congressional Republicans have criticized the White House’s approach to the crisis, calling the Russian leader’s move an invasion and accusing the Biden administration of waiting until it is too late to deter Putin.

Republican Senator Ben Sasse, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the first round of sanctions was “too little, too late. First, these sanctions should have happened before Putin further invaded Ukraine — not after. Second, economic sanctions now need to more aggressively target Putin’s oligarchs to make sure they feel real pain. Third, we shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking that today’s incremental sanctions will deter Putin from trying to install a puppet government in Kyiv.”

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a top Capitol Hill ally of former President Donald Trump, had a direct message for Biden late Tuesday: “You said a couple years ago that Putin did not want you to win because you’re the only person that could go toe-to-toe with him. Well, right now, Mr. President, you’re playing footsie with Putin. He’s walking all over you and our allies.”

Working with allies

Democrats praised Biden, though, for working in concert with European allies and avoiding escalating the crisis.

“I think the administration handled this, given the Russian intentions, as well as it could be handled,” Schiff told reporters Wednesday. “They telegraphed in advance the punitive sanctions that would be applied if Russia invaded. I think it makes sense not to enforce those sanctions before Russia invaded. If you do that, then Russia loses its disincentive and figures, ‘Well, we’ve already been sanctioned. We might as well move forward with it.’ ”

Small minorities within both the Republican and Democratic parties have cautioned against escalating tensions with Putin.

“While we work in coordination with our European allies to respond and impose targeted sanctions, we must continue to do all we can to de-escalate and utilize the full power of diplomacy to find a negotiated solution to this crisis,” Democratic Representative Barbara Lee – the only member of Congress to vote against authorizing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq – said in a statement Wednesday.

“I am confident in President Biden’s repeated commitment to keep U.S. military personnel out of any conflict in Ukraine itself,” Lee continued.

Several members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus have expressed concern the U.S. could become mired in a ground war in Ukraine, despite Biden’s repeated statements that the U.S. would not commit troops to the conflict.

Senator Bob Menendez and Senator Bob Risch, the top-ranking Democrat and Republican, respectively, on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, have separately introduced sanctions bills that would end Russian access to international banking transactions, provide hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, and cut off funding for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Congress is in recess this week and will be back in session at the end of the month.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called up army reservists and ordered military exercises for volunteers in newly created territorial defense brigades, but senior opposition lawmakers and former ministers fear the country is ill-prepared for war with Russia — despite their pleas to the government to get organized.

With credible reports mounting of more Russian forces crossing into Moscow’s breakaway republics in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, a clamor is building from opposition parties in the Verkhovna Rada, the country’s parliament, for much more intensive war-planning. They are demanding the government start in earnest to draft civil defense orders and to mobilize Ukrainians.

Zelenskyy, in a televised address February 22, said Russia’s threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty has compelled him to recall reservists to active duty, but he has urged civilians to go about their normal lives and he has turned his back on mobilizing civilians and to allocate civil defense and emergency roles.

In his short speech overnight Monday, he said: “Regarding security and defense. Today there is no need for general mobilization. We need to promptly replenish the Ukrainian army and other military formations.”

Zelenskyy has been saying for weeks that Ukrainians should remain calm, and he publicly upbraided earlier this month US politicians for warning of an imminent invasion — saying it was damaging Ukraine’s economy and risked panicking Ukrainians unduly. He is being restrained in defense planning for the same reason, political allies told VOA.

Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a former deputy prime minister in the government of Zelenskyy’s predecessor Petro Poroshenko and now a lawmaker, complains Zelenskyy has been much too slow to prepare Ukraine for an existential war. She harbors no doubts that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is methodically uncoiling his forces on her country’s borders — and that serious defense planning should have been under way long before now.

For months she and some other opposition lawmakers have been trying to get additional funding for Ukraine’s armed forces, but the legislation has languished in the Verkhovna Rada. The extra funding has only just been included for consideration.

State of emergency

“I really hope that finally today [Wednesday] we will take the decision in the Parliament on allocating additional money to the armed forces of Ukraine in order to both raise salaries for the officers and soldiers but also to be able to buy more weaponry,” she told VOA. She says Zelenskyy should be asking the United States for a Lend-Lease program, modeled on the one Franklin D. Roosevelt set up in World War II, which enabled the US to supply Britain, Russia, and Free France with food, oil and military equipment.

On Wednesday the country’s defense and security council asked Zelenskyy to declare a state of emergency and Zelenskyy has agreed to do so. But he is also being urged by lawmakers to announce martial law in Donbas, something his aides say would be spun by Moscow as provocative.

Klympush-Tsintsadze and other lawmakers are alarmed at the absence of serious civil defense and emergency planning. “We are pushing the government to ensure we have strategic resources available — energy, food, water and medical supplies. We also need to know how many medical professionals we have capable of treating war injuries,” she says.

Asked why she thinks there has been little detailed planning for a bigger war going far beyond eastern Ukraine, she fumes: “I think it’s because for three years, Zelenskyy has been hoping that his special charm will soothe Putin. He seems to think that in order to stop the war all we have to do is stop shooting. And obviously that has proven wrong. There has been a lack of professionalism.”

She says she is being inundated by friends, acquaintances and constituents asking what they can do in a national effort to defend Ukraine, but there is no guidance from the government. Only on Monday did Zelenskyy meet leaders of all the parliamentary factions and parties — the first time he has done so in the three years he has been in office, she complains.

Other prominent lawmakers are anxious about Ukraine’s preparedness for war, although they all believe that Moscow is seriously underestimating the fighting spirit of Ukrainians. They say the international media is too focused on stories about individual Ukrainians displaying fortitude and expressing defiance, but the nuts-and-bolts of fighting a war will be crucial and the media should be asking questions of the government about defense planning.

Opposition discontent

Lesia Vasylenko, one of 20 parliamentarians from Holos (Voice), a liberal and pro-European political party judges that Putin’s speech on Monday amounts to a “declaration of war,” or rather an intention to wage a bigger war, a continuation of aggression against Ukraine that goes back to 2014 when Russia annexed forcibly Crimea and shaped the creation of what she sees as “make-believe” republics in eastern Ukraine.

But she isn’t happy with Zelenskyy’s performance. She says he should have given his response to Putin’s speech not in the early hours of the morning and on television “but in parliament, on the podium, addressing lawmakers, the representatives of the Ukrainian people.”

She told VOA: “It would have had immense impact and meaning to the people of Ukraine and could have raised morale and sent a much more powerful message to Putin.” But she is also frustrated by the lack of preparedness and thinks Zelenskyy thinks only one step ahead, unlike Putin who is thinking four or five moves ahead.

Zelenskyy, a 44-year-old former television star and political novice, has been determined to keep his nerve and to try to cool tensions, say allies.

An informal adviser to Ukraine’s leader said he “also wants to avoid doing anything Moscow could claim is provocative and war-like.” He added: “We need to pace ourselves.” He spoke on condition he not be identified in this article.

Vasylenko adds: “Ukraine is trapped with a national leader who does not think strategically because he doesn’t have the people around him who think strategically. I think that’s the thing that he will be blamed for later. It’s not about knowing everything. It’s about refusing to have in your entourage experts who know what questions to ask and having advisers who can contradict and challenge you. He picked close friends and trusted allies with little technical or government experience over real experts, and we may pay a price for that.”

She and other opposition lawmakers say they have for weeks pleaded with ministers to draw up strategic civil defense plans. Vasylenko has been at the forefront clamoring for details on what energy and food reserves the country has readied but she hasn’t been able to secure answers.

On Friday, some key committees have an oversight hearing with the cabinet of ministers and will be pressing again for details. “But to be honest, I’m very skeptical we will get any answers, because every time we make specific requests for information from ministries or regional departments, we get nothing — they just don’t have any information,” she says.

Some lawmakers who attended last week’s Munich Security Conference say they were disappointed when some European politicians told them Ukraine should be readying to form a government in exile. The suggestions dovetail with unconfirmed reports that U.S. officials have raised with Zelenskyy the idea of relocating from Kyiv to Lviv in western Ukraine near the Polish border — to where the U.S. and some other Western powers have moved their ambassadors.

Klympush-Tsintsadze says when the idea was raised with her at Munich that plans should be drawn up for a government-in-exile, she responded with disgust. “We are not going anywhere,” she says. “People were very disappointed when Western military instructors were withdrawn from Ukraine and when the embassies were relocated. It did not play well with Ukrainians.”

She adds: “I was mad yesterday when a TV journalist from a foreign broadcaster asked me why we would fight back and try to withstand an attack from Russia, which has one of the biggest armies in the World. I reacted emotionally. If my services as a lawmaker are not needed, at that point I will either get a weapon or do something useful and bandage the wounded, I know how to do that.”
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With Russia announcing it will continue its military drills with Belarus, many observers believe it is just another step by Moscow to prepare for a wider invasion of Ukraine. Russia had originally said the drills would end on February 20 – as Maxim Moskalkov reports.
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Greek authorities have suspended the search for 10 people missing in a ferry fire near Greece. The vessel is being towed to a mainland port five days after the blaze started.  

The Euroferry Olympia caught fire last Friday three hours after leaving Igoumenitsa, Greece, for Brindisi, Italy. The ferry was carrying 292 people. Only 278 were evacuated safely to shore. 

Ten people remain unaccounted for. Greek officials said they were thought to be truck drivers from Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey, BBC News reported. 

Greek authorities requested Tuesday that the ferry be towed from a spot off the Island of Corfu, where it was originally towed after the blaze, to a safe harbor on mainland Greece. Rescuers will continue operations once the ferry arrives at the mainland.  

Greece’s fire service said Tuesday that “its operational capability for search and rescue (on the ship), in its present position, has been exhausted,” according to a coast guard statement, The Associated Press reported. 

The ferry is expected to arrive midday in the harbor of Astakos, a small port town in western Greece. Relatives of the missing will be provided with housing in Astakos as the search resumes.  

The ferry had been towed Sunday to Corfu, in the Ionian Sea off Greece’s northwest coast. Dozens of fire survivors were taken to a hotel on the island. Extreme temperatures, darkness and smoke made it difficult to search the vessel, said Greek coast guard spokesperson Nikolaos Alexiou, according to The New York Times. 

Earlier Sunday, a 21-year-old truck driver from Belarus was found alive at the stern of the ferry.  

“Tell me I’m alive,” he shouted as rescuers helped him off the ferry, BBC News reported.  

Hours later, a fire crew found the body of a 58-year-old Greek truck driver, the first confirmed death.  

The cause of the fire is still under investigation. The company that operates the ferry said the fire had begun in a hold where vehicles were parked, AP reported. Truckers interviewed by Greek state TV said Saturday that some truck drivers might have chosen to sleep in their vehicles rather than in the ferry’s crowded cabins.  

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press. 

 
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An hourslong hostage standoff at the Apple Store in Amsterdam ended late Tuesday with police in a car driving into the hostage taker as he ran from the store. His hostage was safe, police said. 

“We can confirm that the hostage taker is out of the Apple Store,” police said in a tweet. “He is lying on the street and a robot is checking him for explosives. Armed police officers have him under control from a distance. The hostage is safe.” 

Police then said that the man did not have explosives and that medical staff were attending to him. There was no word on his condition. 

The motive for the incident was not immediately clear. Local broadcaster AT5 suggested the standoff was the result of an attempted armed robbery. AT5 said witnesses reported hearing shots fired. 

Dozens of police, including heavily armed specialist arrest teams, massed around the store, cleared and sealed off the nearby Leidseplein square and urged people living there or in shops or cafes nearby to remain indoors. The square ringed by bars and restaurants is close to one of the Dutch capital’s main shopping streets.  

Police said dozens of people managed to leave the building during the standoff but declined to give more details about the situation in the popular store. 

As police lines were set up to keep people away from the store, a helicopter could be heard hovering overhead. The police asked people not to publish images or livestream the hostage situation “for the safety of the people involved and our deployment.”  

Earlier, video posted on social media appeared to show an armed person in the store, apparently holding somebody else. It was not clear how many people were in the store. 

A spokesman for Apple in the Netherlands did not respond to requests seeking comment. 

 
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Monday nights in any city — even the liveliest — can be quiet, but on this Monday evening, Kyiv was noticeably more subdued than usual. The roads were emptier, there were fewer pedestrians about, and the bars and restaurants were pretty much abandoned. 

It was as if the season finale of a popular reality TV show was being broadcast. In a sense, an episode of reality TV was playing, but it wasn’t clear if this was a finale or the opening of an especially dark new season. 

Reports from Russia had been circulating from late afternoon that Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, would be making a big announcement. 

And when it came — all 56 minutes of it — people were left open-mouthed and afraid about what it might presage. They had half-expected he would recognize the two breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine that Moscow had fashioned eight years ago in the wake of the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych as Ukraine’s president in a popular uprising that infuriated Putin. 

But the bellicosity of the speech; the depth of hostility to the West, as Ukrainians saw it; and what they say was a fanciful narrative about the history of Ukraine left them reeling. 

“I was surprised, but maybe it was to be expected,” 27-year-old makeup artist Aleksandra told me as I interrupted her conversation with her friend Katya, 36, a singer, near Kyiv’s Independence Square, or Maidan. 

“We all started phoning each other, all my friends and family, and some people said his speech means a much bigger war, not just in eastern Ukraine,” she said. “Some people talked about packing their bags and leaving, but we calmed them down.” 

Aleksandra and her husband have talked about what they should do if war creeps nearer. 

“We have discussed two options,” she told me. “Leaving Kyiv for my parents’ village in northwestern Ukraine near Poland. Or maybe we will stay here and be useful — people will need free hands to help.”  

But, she added, “I did think as I listened to Putin, how does one get a gun?” 

That thought has occurred to others. And Ukrainians, who have guns for sport, hunting or self-protection, have been stocking up on ammunition, said Andriy, who works at a gun store in the affluent historic neighborhood of Podil, which overlooks the Dnieper River. 

His store, Armelit, advertises itself as a hunting boutique and stocks some expensive high-end weapons, including vintage British double-barreled shotguns of the type wielded by aristocrats on the historical TV drama “Downton Abbey.” His store was low on ammunition, he said, and he had heard others had none and were scrambling to buy more. 

The buying spree started several weeks ago, when U.S. leaders started to issue ever more dire warnings about the imminence of war. 

“People are buying guns and ammunition for self-protection, national defense and because they worry about looting,” he said. He reels off a list of the most popular calibers of ammunition: .233, 5.56, 7.62. He proudly hands me an English double-barreled shotgun made in 1909 and valued at $20,000. He nods approvingly when I check that the barrels are clear of cartridges. 

Outside in Kontraktova Square, two young boys clamber over a statue of a Cossack. The square is full of people sitting on benches and talking or reading alone. I fall in with two widows, both dressed in red quilt coats, both silver haired.  

“We don’t want war,” 75-year-old Halyna said. She was born in Moscow and married a Russian army officer. Her face livens when she tells me how they traveled before settling in Kyiv. 

“What happens to us doesn’t matter; we have lived our lives,” she said. “But the young — our sons and daughters, grandsons and granddaughters — are who I worry about. We will give them to Ukraine to help the country, but I worry about them.” 

Then she looks me directly in the eye and says: “What’s happening is a big state is bullying a small state; Russia is an elephant, and we are a rabbit. I have friends all over the world — in Russia, America, Israel and Europe. I like everyone. There’s no need for this.” 

Nearby 20-year-old Myroslava is reading a book. She’s a business student and has just got an internship in a company. Her reaction to Putin’s speech was firm. 

“Yes, unfortunately I saw it,” she said. “I didn’t appreciate his thoughts, and he was telling Russians what they should think.”  

She says that Ukraine has been at war for eight years and she is not afraid.  

“Ukraine has a strong army, and we can protect ourselves, and other countries are supporting us. I just have to believe that,” she said. Her parents have asked her what she intends to do. Will she come home? They would prefer that. But for now, she will remain in Kyiv. 

Later I have drinks with Lesia Vasylenko, 34, a mother and lawmaker. She’s one of 20 parliamentarians from Holos (Voice), a liberal and pro-European political party. She says everyone feels as though they are in limbo. 

“It is a crazy time,” she said. “We are certainly living in a period which will be in the history books, and we are the people who are witnessing and making history, each one of us separately.” 

She judges Putin’s speech as a “declaration of war” or an intention to wage a bigger war, a continuation of aggression against Ukraine that goes back to 2014, when Russia forcibly annexed Crimea and shaped the creation of what she sees as “make-believe” republics in eastern Ukraine. 

She isn’t happy with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who she says should have given his response to Putin not in the early hours of the morning and on television “but in parliament, on the podium, addressing lawmakers, the representatives of the Ukrainian people, and not a short speech saying I have had so many calls with international leaders.” 

“It would have had immense impact and meaning to the people of Ukraine and could have raised morale and sent a much more powerful message to Putin,” she added. 
…

U.S. President Joe Biden cut off the Russian government from international financing on Tuesday and imposed sanctions on two large banks, declaring that its actions in Ukraine were “a flagrant violation of international law.”  

He also ordered the movement of infantry troops and air support from elsewhere in Europe closer to Russia’s borders, as the region girds for possible confrontation. 

In a brief White House speech, Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order late Monday to send troops across the eastern Ukraine border into the Luhansk and Donetsk regions was “the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.” Hours earlier, Putin declared the regions as independent, no longer part of Ukraine.  

Biden pointedly asked, “Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries on territory that belonged to his neighbors?”  

The U.S. leader said his sanctions would cut off the Russian government “from raising money from the West,” and vowed that Russia “will pay an even steeper price (with more sanctions) if its forces advance further” west into Ukraine.  

The sanctions announced Tuesday target three men in Putin’s inner circle: Aleksandr Bortnikov, head of the Federal Security Service; Sergei Kiriyenko, a top official in Putin’s office; and Peter Fradkov, chairman of Promsvyazbank.  

A senior administration official told reporters that the sanctions target two banks especially close to Russia’s leadership, including one — Vnesheconombank — that holds more than $50 billion in assets.  Daleep Singh, deputy national security adviser for international economics, described it as “a glorified piggy bank for the Kremlin.” 

“Make no mistake — this is only the sharp edge of the pain we can inflict,” he said. 

Some analysts say the administration could have done more.   

“The sanctions announced (Monday) will have almost no impact, either in economic or political terms,” Chris Miller, a Russia analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, told VOA. “The sanctions announced today — notably the sovereign debt sanctions — will have a minor, negative macroeconomic impact on Russia.” 

Biden said the United States has no intention of “fighting Russia,” by moving troops from elsewhere in Europe. But he said that “none of us should be fooled; none of us will be fooled” by Putin’s intentions in deploying what he characterized as “peacekeeping forces” into the one-time Soviet republic.  

On Tuesday, Biden also met at the White House with Ukraine’s foreign minister and “reiterated the readiness of the United States, in close cooperation with our Allies and partners, to respond swiftly and decisively to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine,” the White House said.  

In a speech at the Kremlin on Monday, Putin declared that Ukraine was never an independent state and was part of a greater Russian sphere of influence, not a “puppet” of the West.  

“He directly attacked Ukraine’s right to exist,” Biden said of Putin, adding that there is “still time to avert the worst-case scenario” of a full-on invasion through diplomatic settlement of the crisis.  

But, Biden concluded, “We’re going to judge Russia by its actions, not its words.”   

Biden warned Americans, “Defending freedom will have costs,” with higher gasoline prices as world oil prices surge with the threat of further violence in Ukraine and an expanded Russian invasion.  

Biden’s implementation of long-promised sanctions came as other Western allies quickly moved Tuesday to punish Russia with sanctions of their own.      

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz halted authorization for Nord Stream 2, the completed but not yet operational natural gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, at least temporarily curbing potential fuel deliveries to Germany but also depriving Moscow of revenue from the pipeline.    

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Parliament he had sanctioned five Russian banks and three “high net worth” executives, freezing their assets in Britain and cutting off financial transactions with them.    

“This is the first tranche, the first barrage, of what we are prepared to do,” Johnson said.    

Russian lawmakers on Tuesday gave Putin permission to use military force outside the country, possibly presaging a broader attack on Ukraine   

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that “Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil” in Donetsk and Luhansk but that it was not a “fully fledged invasion.”    

For weeks, the U.S. and European allies have warned of swift and severe consequences for Russia if it launched an invasion of Ukraine, a possibility viewed with growing concern as Russia deployed 150,000 troops and military equipment along its border with Ukraine and in Belarus, a Russian ally to the north of Ukraine.       

Russian tanks entered eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region overnight, Western diplomats and residents in Donetsk confirmed to VOA.  It was unclear if their presence constituted significant movement of Russian forces or instead movement of Russian-backed militias already in eastern Ukraine.   

Biden issued an initial set of sanctions Monday in response to Putin’s recognition of the breakaway regions and his order to deploy what he called Russian peacekeeping forces.       

 A senior Biden administration official told reporters that the first round of sanctions was specifically tied to those actions and did not represent the “swift and severe economic measures we have been preparing in coordination with allies and partners should Russia further invade Ukraine.”       

Biden’s Monday order prohibited new investment, trade and financing by Americans in Luhansk and Donetsk after Putin declared them independent from Ukraine.    

From a desk at the Kremlin, Putin delivered a nearly hourlong televised address to the Russian people on Monday, outlining his version of the history of national boundaries in Europe and the 1990s breakup of the Soviet Union.      

Putin also said there was “no prospect” for peace to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine, but Moscow has contended it has no plans to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.      

“This wasn’t a speech just about Russia’s security,” a senior U.S. administration official said. “It was an attack on the very idea of a sovereign and independent Ukraine. He (Putin) made clear that he views Ukraine historically as part of Russia. And he made a number of false claims about Ukraine that seemed designed to excuse possible military action. This was a speech to the Russian people to justify war.”    

VOA’s Carla Babb contributed to this report.     

 
…

Germany on Tuesday halted the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea natural gas pipeline project designed to double the flow of Russian gas to Germany, a day after Moscow formally recognized the Russian-occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent states. 

What is Nord Stream 2? 

The more than $11 billion project that has bothered Germany’s allies was completed in September but has been idle pending certification by Germany and the European Union.  

Nord Stream 2 was halted as it was set to ease pressure on European consumers facing soaring energy prices and governments that have spent billions of dollars to limit the impact on their citizens. 

The 1,200-kilometer underwater Nord Stream 2 follows the same path as Nord Stream 1, which was finished more than a decade ago. 

Like Nord Stream 1, the idle pipeline is capable of transporting 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Russia to elsewhere in Europe, potentially boosting the continent’s access to relatively low-priced gas when domestic production is declining. 

Why did Germany support Nord Stream 2? 

Germany, which gets half its gas from Russia, maintained the pipeline was mainly a commercial project to diversify energy supplies for Europe. 

Germany aggressively pursued the pipeline for years, working through the poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, several spying scandals and multiple cyberattacks.  

Even as some 150,000 Russian troops steadily assembled on Ukraine’s borders, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not mention the name of the pipeline when asked about possible sanctions against Russia.  

Why is Germany taking action now? 

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to recognize the Russian-occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent.  Hours later, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he had requested a halt to the pipeline approval process, despite record high gas prices in Europe. 

Scholtz said Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of the rebel-held areas was a “serious break of international law” and that it was necessary to “send a clear signal to Moscow that such actions won’t remain without consequences.” 

Scholz, who succeeded Angela Merkel in December, also said he withdrew a report that Germany was required to submit on how the pipeline would affect energy security.  

Why does Russia want the pipeline? 

The Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom, which owns half of Nord Stream 2, said the pipeline would meet Europe’s needs for relatively affordable gas and supplement existing pipelines in Ukraine and Belarus. 

Gazprom said Nord Stream 2 would offer an alternative to Ukraine’s aging pipeline that it says needs refurbishment. The gas giant also said the new pipeline would lower costs by saving transit fees paid to Ukraine and avoid gas cutoffs like those that occurred briefly in 2006 and 2009 due to Russia-Ukraine disputes over prices and payments. 

Europe is in growing need of gas because it is replacing decommissioned coal and nuclear plants before the energy they produce can be replaced by renewable sources such as wind and solar.  

Why do the United States and most other Western allies oppose Nord Stream 2? 

The European Union and the United States argued that Nord Stream 2 would increase Europe’s energy dependence on Russia and deny transit fees to Ukraine, host to a separate Russian gas pipeline, and make Ukraine more vulnerable to Russian invasion amid Europe’s worst crisis since the Cold War.

They also contend the pipeline would give Russia the possibility of using gas as a geopolitical weapon, as Europe imports most of its gas, 40% of which comes from Russia.  

Ukraine, which has been in conflict with Russia since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, has long opposed Nord Stream 2. The pipeline bypasses Ukraine’s infrastructure, depriving it of more than $1 billion annually in gas transit fees, while making Russia less dependent on cooperation with Ukraine. 

U.S. President Joe Biden waived sanctions against the pipeline’s operator last year in exchange for an agreement from Germany to act against Russia if it used gas as a weapon or attacked Ukraine.

How will suspending Nord Stream 2 affect Europeans this winter? 

European regulators said before Scholz’s move the approval process could not be completed in the first half of this year, meaning the pipeline was not going to help European households meet heating and electricity needs this winter. 

Could Russia cut off gas to Europe in retaliation? 

Many expert observers believe Russia would not cut off supplies to Europe because Gazprom also needs the European market. Russian officials have also emphasized they have no plans to do so. 

Half of Nord Stream 2 is owned by the Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom and the rest is divided between the Anglo-Dutch company Shell, Austria’s OMV, France’s Engie, and Germany’s Uniper and Wintershall. 

Some information for this report came from Agence France-Presse, The Associated Press and Reuters. 

 
…

Despite his country’s recently warming ties with Russia, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has condemned Moscow’s decision to recognize the two Ukrainian enclaves of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Speaking to reporters, President Erdogan described as “unacceptable” Russia’s recognition of the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, calling on all parties to abide by international law.

Turkey has strongly backed Ukraine, even selling Kyiv its latest military drones despite protests from Moscow. Last October, a Kremlin spokesman warned that Turkey’s ongoing arms sales to Ukraine threaten to destabilize the region.

Russia’s increasingly aggressive policy in the shared Black Sea region is causing Ankara concern, says international relations professor Mustafa Aydin of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.

“Until a few years (ago), Turkey had the most powerful navy in the Black Sea after the Cold War, but now Russia has surpassed,” Aydin said. “Especially the militarization of the zone by Russia, not only Crimea, but across the Black Sea region from Armenia to the north Caucasus, to the Ukrainian border; it puts not only Turkey but all the NATO countries in a defensive position.”

Erdogan has in recent years developed close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, extending from cooperating in Syria to trade and investment. Asli Aydintasbas, a senior Fellow of the European Council, says that relationship has put Moscow in a strong position with Ankara.

“Russia holds way too many cards. They hold the card of refugees in Syria. One sortie from a Russian fighter jet could get people in Syria to panic and run to the border,” Aydintasbas said. “They hold the natural gas card: Turkey in the middle of winter, does need Russian gas. And Russians have been investing in Turkey’s key infrastructure. They are building Turkey’s first nuclear reactor.”

Analysts point out that Turkey’s dependency on Russian energy exports and cooperation in Syria mean Erdogan will have to tread carefully with Moscow. In addition, Russia sends Turkey its largest number of vacationers, boosting itss key tourism sector, which provides vital foreign currency to the country’s beleaguered economy.

Analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners warns that with the Turkish economy struggling to recover from a currency collapse last year, Turkey is especially vulnerable to any retaliation from Russia.

“If the (Turkish) currency weakens once more obviously, it will immediately pass through to inflation,” Yesilada said. “Then inflation would shoot up to hyperinflation levels which is unstable inflation which may reach three digits.”

Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin – in an interview with the German newspaper Die Welt last weekend – criticized sanctions on Russia, saying they were useless. Turkey strongly opposed earlier economic measures against Russia.

As Ankara works to balance relations with both its Western allies and the Kremlin, analysts say this juggling act could face its greatest test in decades if the crisis over Ukraine deepens.
…

Slovakia marked on Monday the anniversary of the 2018 slayings of an investigative journalist and his fiancee by unveiling a monument to honor them at a central square in the capital of Bratislava.

Prime Minister Eduard Heger and the parents of the two were among those attending the unveiling ceremony.

Jan Kuciak and Martina Kusnirova, both 27, were shot dead at their home in the town of Velka Maca, east of Bratislava, on Feb. 21, 2018.

Kuciak had been investigating possible government corruption when he was killed. The killings prompted major street protests unseen since the 1989 Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia and a political crisis that led to the government’s collapse.

“I thank all those who work to prevent people from forgetting what happened and why it happened,” Kusnirova’s mother Zlatica said.

Three defendants have been sentenced in the case. Among them, a former soldier who pleaded guilty to fatally shooting the two received 25 years in prison. 

In June, Slovakia’s Supreme Court dismissed a lower court’s acquittal of a businessman accused of masterminding the slayings. A three-judge panel of the Supreme Court said the lower court did not properly assess available evidence when it cleared businessman Marian Kocner and one co-defendant of murder.

It ordered a retrial that is scheduled to begin next week.

Prosecutors alleged Kocner ordered the killing. He denies that.

Kocner had allegedly threatened Kuciak following the publication of a story about his business dealings.

In the meantime, Kocner was sentenced to 19 years in prison in a separate forgery case.
…

Russia’s decision to send troops into two separatist enclaves in eastern Ukraine is forcing a difficult choice for China, which has aligned itself closer with Moscow but could face blowback if it is seen as supporting the unilateral redrawing of international borders, analysts say.

The government of Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday formally recognized the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and ordered what it called “peacekeepers” into the contested regions. The moves followed a fiery speech in which Putin questioned Ukraine’s very statehood, further raising concern he is planning a large-scale invasion.

The situation is tricky for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who earlier this month declared a “no limits” partnership with Russia following a meeting with Putin. The meeting was the latest evidence Russia and China have drawn closer as both attempt to counter U.S. global influence.

But the Ukraine issue is already testing how far that enhanced partnership can go. Analysts say China is likely concerned about foreign turmoil that could impact its economy, especially during a sensitive year of domestic political maneuvering meant to shape what is expected to be Xi’s indefinite rule.

China, which has long insisted it opposes interference in other countries’ internal affairs, may also be worried about its international reputation taking a hit.

On Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference that the sovereignty of all nations should be respected. “Ukraine is no exception,” he added.

In recent weeks, China has called for restraint on all sides in Ukraine, as well as a return to the Minsk Agreements, which were meant to restore peace following a flare-up of violence along the Russia-Ukraine border in 2014.

But by recognizing the two disputed Ukrainian territories, Putin “obliterated” the Minsk Agreements, in the process essentially destroying a key Chinese talking point, says Derek Grossman, a senior analyst who focuses on Asia at the RAND Corporation, a California-based global policy research organization. “All of that is completely out the window if Russia does invade,” Grossman told VOA.

Speaking late Monday at an emergency meeting on Ukraine at the United Nations Security Council, China’s U.N. envoy Zhang Jun issued only brief remarks, calling for all sides to “exercise restraint.” He did not mention the Minsk Agreements.

The speech “reads like a placeholder,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “China hasn’t decided what its policy response should be yet,” she concluded.

In some ways, the situation mirrors that of 2014, when Russia seized the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine. At the time, China also responded by insisting that Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty should be respected but that the West should consider Russia’s “legitimate security concerns.”

Since then, however, geopolitics has shifted. Not only have U.S.-China ties worsened, China has gotten stronger economically and militarily and is now bolder about challenging U.S. power.

But Ryan Hass, a China scholar at the U.S.-based Brookings Institution, cautioned against assuming China has already chosen to support Russia on the Ukraine issue.

“If there is war in Ukraine, and if China actively attempts to shield Russia from global condemnation, then China may spur a self-harming solidification of blocs” in which China is aligned with “the weakest other major power,” he tweeted.

China may also be reluctant to damage its diplomatic and economic relationship with Europe, which is strongly opposed to a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Beijing needs to be helped toward realizing that going all-in on the China-Russia relationship carries more risks than benefits,” Hass said.

Other analysts are more pessimistic. Russia and China may be determined to form a relationship that can overturn large swaths of U.S. dominance, argued Robert Kagan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, in an editorial in The Washington Post.

“It is really their shared desire to disrupt the international order that creates a common interest,” he said.
…

Germany must introduce regulations to require its privately operated gas storage facilities to reach full capacity before winter to avoid the kind of energy crunch now gripping the country, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Monday. 

Germany’s gas storage facilities are at historically low levels and fears that a possible war between Russia and Ukraine could worsen an energy crisis in Europe has raised the pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to secure supplies. 

“The storage facilities should be full, and we must have an option to control the filling up of the reserves,” Habeck said in a speech to business leaders in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia. 

Germany, which relies mainly on Russian gas for heating and manufacturing, fears that Russia could retaliate against any Western sanctions over Ukraine by cutting supplies to Europe. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday signed a decree recognizing the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent entities, raising the risk of Russian troops entering Ukraine and sparking a war. 

An energy crunch in Europe that drove up prices resulted in Germany entering the winter months with low reserves, which at the start of February stood at just under 35% full, the lowest ever for this time of the year. 

The storage industry is privately organized but handling fees for storage services are regulated. 

Habeck said regulation requiring the private sector to ensure storage facilities are full was a better option than the state buying gas to secure supplies. He said there was enough gas for this winter. 

Options for the state to intervene in boosting storage and withdrawals are limited under current rules. 

High prices and low gas stocks have also stoked fears that industry and households could run short, or pay over the odds, for supplies. 

Germany’s 24 billion cubic meters of gas storage capacity equates to about a quarter of annual domestic consumption. 

 
…

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday recognized the Russian-speaking regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent states, signing documents declaring them no longer part of Ukraine. Hours earlier, the separatist leaders of the regions made a video appeal for the independence declaration. 

Location 

The Donetsk and Luhansk regions — collectively known as the Donbas — are in eastern Ukraine, near the border with Russia. The region comprises both Kyiv-controlled parts as well as separatist-controlled areas. Its main industries are coal mining and steel production. 

Population 

Most of the 3.6 million people living in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions speak Russian, a result of a migration of Russian workers to the regions after World War II, during the Soviet era. Moscow has in recent years issued more than 720,000 Russian passports to roughly one-fifth of the region’s population, according to The Associated Press. 

Rebel control 

Pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions took over government buildings in 2014 and proclaimed the regions as independent “people’s republics.” The move followed Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. 

Fighting  

Since 2014, more than 14,000 people have been killed in fighting in the Donbas region between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces. Ukraine and the West accuse Russia of backing the separatists both militarily and financially, a charge Moscow denies.  

Amid the fighting, a Malaysian airliner was shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014, killing all 298 people on board. International investigators concluded the missile was supplied by Russia and fired from an area controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Russia has denied involvement. 

Independence 

After separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions took power in 2014, they held a vote to declare independence. Until now, no country recognized their bid. On Monday, Putin announced the independence of the regions after meeting with the Russian Security Council. His announcement followed a video appeal by the regions’ separatist leaders for the recognition of independence.  

Regional leaders 

Each of the regions has its own self-proclaimed president. In a vote disputed by Kyiv, Denis Pushilin was elected in 2018 to lead the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, while Leonid Pasechnik is the leader of the Luhansk separatist region. 

Minsk peace process 

Russia’s recognition of the regions effectively ends the Minsk peace agreements, which were never fully implemented. The agreements, signed in 2014 and 2015, had called for a large amount of autonomy for the two regions inside Ukraine. 

Other breakaway regions 

Russia has previously recognized the independence of two Georgian breakaway regions — Abkhazia and South Ossetia — after a brief war with Georgia in 2008. Russia has since stationed troops in those regions and offered Russian citizenship to their populations. 

Some information in this report came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse. 

 
…

Northern Britain and parts of France and Germany were battered Sunday and Monday by Franklin — the third major storm to strike the region in less than a week. The severe weather has flooded roads, knocked out power and left at least 14 people dead. 

Storm Franklin brought heavy rains and high winds that disrupted travel and prompted more than 140 flood warnings across England and Wales as of Monday.  

The storm moved through Northern Ireland and northern Britain before moving on to France, where a couple in their 70s died Sunday after their car was swept into the English Channel near a small town in Normandy.  

Franklin struck even as crews were attempting to clear fallen trees and restore power to hundreds of thousands of homes hit by storms Dudley and Eunice last week.  

Authorities in England issued more than 300 flood warnings and alerts, while insurers in Germany and the Netherlands estimated the damage from those storms to be at more than $1.7 billion. The German Aerospace Center said the storms would likely result in widespread damage to Europe’s already weakened forests. 

The AccuWeather news service reports this is the first time three such storms have struck Britain and northern Europe in less than a week since Britain’s Meteorological Office began naming storms in 2015. 

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse. 

 
…

Russia has drawn the world’s attention with its aggressive stance toward Ukraine. The former Soviet power has been rebuilding ties with Africa more quietly, strengthening economic and military cooperation, but also raising Western concerns about its tactics and goals there.

Russian flags waved in Burkina Faso’s capital following January’s military coup in the West African nation. A statue unveiled in the Central African Republic last fall shows local soldiers, backed by Russian fighters, protecting civilians.

Those are the more obvious symbols of Russia’s resurgent presence on the continent. Africa is a foreign policy priority, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the first Russia-Africa summit of political and business leaders in 2019.

“We are not going to participate in a new ‘repartition’ of the continent’s wealth,” he said. “Rather, we are ready to engage in competition for cooperation with Africa.”

A second summit is planned for St. Petersburg in October. The first, at the Black Sea resort town of Sochi, generated diplomatic agreements and billions of dollars in deals involving arms, energy, agriculture, banking and more, said the organizer, the Roscongress Foundation.

Moscow has been building new ties and refreshing alliances forged during the Cold War, when the former Soviet Union supported socialist movements across Africa. After the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, it largely withdrew from the continent.

Since at least 2007, especially in the last few years, Russia has been increasing military and other economic involvement in Africa. The 2019 summit produced contracts with more than 30 African countries to supply military armaments and equipment. Businesses, including state-backed commercial interests, have invested heavily in security sectors, technology and industries that extract natural resources such as oil, gas, gold and other minerals.

Rusal is a company that excavates minerals for aluminum in Guinea and nuclear group Rosatom seeks uranium in Namibia. Alrosa, the world’s largest diamond mining company, has pushed to expand operations in Angola and Zimbabwe, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Russia is clearly interested, in search of new economic markets and geopolitical influence in Africa,” said Tatiana Smirnova, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Quebec’s Centre FrancoPaix and an associate with the University of Florida’s Sahel Research Group. “It’s important for Russia.”

Trade between Russia and African countries has doubled since 2015, to about $20 billion a year, African Export-Import Bank President Benedict Oramah said in an interview last fall with Russia’s state-owned Tass news agency, cited by the Russia Briefing investment news site. He said Russia exported $14 billion worth of goods and services and imported roughly $5 billion in African products.

However, Africa does more business with other countries, notably China, its biggest trading partner in recent years.

Russia’s overtures in recent years offer cooperation without the “political or other conditions” imposed by Western countries, Putin has said.

“Russia provides, as did the Soviet Union before, an alternative vision for African nations” based on “this common anti-Western critique,” said Maxim Matusevich, a history professor who directs Russian studies at Seton Hall University in New Jersey.

However, while the Soviets tried to sell socialist ideas of modernization in Africa, Russians today “are not offering any ideological vision,” he said. “What they’re essentially doing is they’re contracting with African elites on a one-on-one basis. … They insist on the importance of sovereignty and contrast that with the West, which is trying to impose its values, such as transparency, honest governance, anti-corruption legislation. Again, I’m not saying the West is always sincere doing that, but that’s the official message – and they [Russians] are not doing any of that.”

Shifting dynamics

The spread of militant Islamist extremism and other violence in Africa has created more openings for Russian military involvement. For instance, five nations in the volatile Sahel region – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger – solicited Moscow’s military support in 2018. Russian fighters also have been engaged in Mozambique and Angola.

France’s planned drawdown of troops from Mali, its former colony and partner in the fight against jihadists since 2013, leaves still more room.

Last Thursday, France and its security partners announced they would exit Mali, citing “multiple obstructions” by the military junta that took power in 2020. France will redeploy its 2,400 troops elsewhere in the Sahel.

Private military contractors also are helping advance Moscow’s agendas in Africa, Western observers say. These include fighters in the shadowy Wagner Group, allegedly controlled by Putin associate Yevgeny Prigozhin. Putin has denied any connection with the group.

“It’s not the state,” Putin said. “… It’s private business with private interests tied to extracting energy resources, including various resources like gold or precious stones.”

Those private fighters operate in parallel with the Kremlin, said Joseph Siegle, who directs research for the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, part of the U.S. Defense Department. He said they are part of Moscow’s tool kit to prop up weak African leaders in exchange for economic or other advantages.

“Every place we’ve seen Wagner deployed around the world and in Africa – be it Libya, Sudan, Mozambique, Central African Republic – it has been a destabilizing force,” Siegle said. “What Russia has been doing has been deploying mercenaries, disinformation, election interference, arms-for-resources deals, opaque contracts … aimed at capturing wider influence.”

That influence can protect Russia’s interests in international circles, Matusevich said, citing Russia’s 2014 seizure of the Crimean Peninsula.

“We know that in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine, when Russia was sanctioned in the United Nations, a lot of African nations abstained from the vote,” he said. “So, they are gaining diplomatic support and alternative diplomatic blocs that they can count on.”

The United Nations is investigating reports of “grave” human rights abuses in the Central African Republic, allegedly committed by private military personnel. Meanwhile, Russian mercenaries are glorified as public protectors amid a coup attempt in the 2021 Russian film The Tourist. The movie, set in the Central African Republic, reportedly was funded by Putin ally Pregizhin.

Security concerns

In Mali, the leaders of a 2020 military coup brought in Russian military trainers – and what U.S. and French authorities say are Wagner mercenaries.

Some in Mali welcomed them by waving Russian flags, reflecting not only the country’s historic ties with the former USSR but also public impatience over continued insecurity, said Niagalé Bagayoko, a Paris-based political scientist who chairs the African Security Sector Network. The organization seeks security and justice reforms, and is among advocates for more protections for civilians in the Sahel and more transparency and accountability for military operations there.

“In 2013, the whole Malian population [was] enthusiastic when the French arrived … today they are rejecting their presence,” Bagayoko said.

“To be honest, I would not be very surprised if, in two years or so, the same could happen with the Russian presence,” she said.

African countries are showing a willingness to look beyond a single foreign partner in their efforts to find stability and security, she said. “There is the realization … that being only engaged with single actors …. is restricting the possibility for diplomacy, but also for military apparatus.”

Russia is not the only foreign government trying to broaden influence in Africa, home to vast resources including a surging youth population.

The White House plans a second U.S.-Africa leadership summit later this year, following up on an initial Washington gathering in 2014 and the European Union has announced a new $172 million investment in infrastructure, countering China’s Belt and Road initiative.
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While the ongoing situation in Ukraine is the world focus, Russia has been rebuilding ties with Africa more quietly, strengthening economic and military cooperation on the continent. That is raising Western concerns about its tactics and goals there, as VOA’s Carol Guensburg reports. Contributor: Danila, Joad. Videographer: Betty Ayoub 
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WASHINGTON — The United States has warned the United Nations it has information that Russia has lists of Ukrainians “to be killed or sent to camps” in the event of an invasion, according to a letter sent to the U.N. rights chief and obtained by AFP Sunday.

The letter, which came as Washington warned of an imminent invasion by Russian troops massed near the Ukrainian border, says the United States is “deeply concerned” and warns of a potential “human rights catastrophe.”

The United States has “credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation,” the letter says. 

“We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,” says the message, addressed to U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet.

The note, signed by Bathsheba Nell Crocker, U.S. ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva, warns a Russian invasion of Ukraine could bring with it abuses such as kidnappings or torture, and could target political dissidents and religious and ethnic minorities, among others.

Russia has placed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders in recent weeks, the United States and Western allies have estimated.

Moscow denies it plans to attack its neighbor, but is seeking a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the Western alliance will remove forces from Eastern Europe, demands the West has refused. 
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US has warned of an imminent Russian invasion, saying Moscow would face ‘severe consequences’
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Greek emergency workers rescued a Belarussian truck driver Sunday from a burning ferry off the island of Corfu and found the body of another man as they combed the wreckage for missing passengers. The discoveries left 10 people still unaccounted for. 

The truck driver, in his 20s, was able to make his way up to the left rear deck on his own, and told rescue workers he heard other voices below. There were no further details identifying the victim, the first body recovered from the ship.  

“The fact that this man succeeded, despite adverse conditions, to exit into the deck and alert the coast guard … gives us hope that there may be other [survivors],” coast guard spokesman Nikos Alexiou told state broadcaster ERT. 

The Italian-owned Euroferry Olympia, which was carrying more than 290 passengers and crew as well as 153 trucks and 32 cars, caught fire Friday, three hours after it left the northwestern Greek port of Igoumenitsa bound for the Italian city of Brindisi. The Greek coast guard and other boats evacuated about 280 people to the nearby island of Corfu.  

The ferry has been towed to the port of Kassiopi, in northeastern Corfu. Firefighters were still battling the blaze in spots Sunday and a thick smoke still blanketed the ship. 

Alexiou said his understanding was that the truck driver hadn’t heard any voices just before making his way onto the deck but added “the situation is evolving.” The survivor was taken to a hospital for a medical exam. 

The extreme temperatures in some parts of the ship have impeded the Greek fire service’s Disaster Management Unit and a team of private rescuers from searching the whole ship. The ferry is slightly listing from the tons of water poured into it to douse the fire but authorities say it’s not in danger of capsizing. 

Two passengers were rescued Saturday. One wasn’t on the ship’s manifest and was presumably a migrant. The other person, a 65-year-old Bulgarian truck driver, had respiratory problems and is on a ventilator in a Corfu hospital’s intensive care unit. 

A Greek prosecutor on Corfu has ordered an investigation into the cause of the fire. The Italy-based company that operates the ferry said the fire started in a hold where vehicles were parked. 

The ship’s captain and two engineers were arrested Friday but were released the same day, authorities said. 

Passengers described the initial evacuation as dramatic. 

“We heard the alarm. We thought it was some kind of drill. But we saw through the portholes that people were running,” truck driver Dimitris Karaolanidis told The Associated Press. “You can’t think something at the time [other than] your family … When I hit the deck, I saw smoke and children. Fortunately, they [the crew] acted quickly.” 
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