The Kremlin said Thursday it will take time to withdraw Russian forces that have completed drills near the Ukraine border, while the United States and other Ukrainian allies say there are no concrete signs of a pullback of the Russian military elements that have sparked fears of a new invasion of Ukraine.

A senior U.S. official told reporters late Wednesday that despite Russia saying it was starting to send some units back to their bases, it had actually added as many as 7,000 more troops along the Ukraine border.

“The Russians have also said in recent days that they are prepared to engage in diplomacy as we and our allies have repeatedly offered,” the official said. “But every indication we have now is they mean only to publicly offer to talk and make claims about de-escalation while privately mobilizing for war.”

Russia has denied it plans to invade Ukraine, and it has sought security guarantees such as a NATO commitment that it will rule out membership for Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.

The United States and NATO have repeatedly said that demand is not up for consideration, including doing so in a letter to Russia in late January as part of lengthy and ongoing diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday that Russia would deliver its written response to the U.S. letter later in the day.

Also Thursday, Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine traded accusations of firing across a cease-fire line.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was deeply concerned about the flare-up in violence. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for a condemnation of what he called a “severe violation of Minsk agreements by Russia amid an already tense security situation.”

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
…

Ukraine’s Western allies were warning last week of an “imminent” attack by Russia, and earlier this week that shifted to an assault remaining a “distinct possibility.” But now a consensus is forming that the Kremlin intends to keep NATO and Kyiv in suspense and is preparing to persist with a strategy of armed blackmail for the foreseeable future.

Britain’s foreign secretary Liz Truss warned Thursday that Russia might well prolong the stand-off on Ukraine’s borders for months, testing the resolve of the West and the resilience of Ukraine, and with the aim of extracting security concessions and roiling the Western alliance.

She said there is no evidence of any withdrawal of Russian troops, despite claims by the Kremlin otherwise.

“We must not be lulled into a false sense of security by Russia claiming that some troops are returning to their barracks, while in fact the Russian military build-up shows no signs of slowing,” she said. “There is currently no evidence that the Russians are withdrawing from border regions near Ukraine,” she added.

And Britain’s foreign minister warned: “We must have no illusions that Russia could drag this out much longer in a brazen ploy to spend weeks more — if not months — subverting Ukraine and challenging Western unity. This is a test of our mettle.”

Her assessment echoes what Ukrainian officials have long argued — namely, that the Kremlin has many hybrid-warfare options and will prolong the crisis using different tactics to goad and intimidate. They have said repeatedly that Putin’s strategy is more about trying to wear the West down rather than gamble with an invasion of Ukraine that would likely mire Russia in a long and bloody counter-insurgency war.

And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his aides have been much more cautious about predicting an invasion or offering a date for it. Earlier this week the Ukrainian leader appeared to poke fun at Western warnings about a firm date for a Russian assault — February 16 had been publicly earmarked by US and British officials as the likely date for a Russian offensive to begin.

The Kremlin has denied it has been planning to invade Ukraine and has accused Western leaders of whipping up “hysteria.” Kremlin-directed media have been telling their domestic Russian audiences that NATO has been fomenting alarmism and Kremlin officials have been mocking the predictions of an invasion.

Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Wednesday wrote on social media “I’d like to ask if US and British sources of disinformation … could publish the schedule of our upcoming invasions for the year. I’d like to plan my holidays.”

A former British intelligence chief, John Sawers told the BBC midweek that he thought the chance of an invasion “was never quite as high as was being portrayed by some Western governments.” He added: “I don’t think that President Putin ever decided to invade the country and, indeed, I think it would always have been a very risky course for him to have taken.”

Invasion fears aside, NATO allies are taking no chances and are preparing to move more tanks and warplanes towards eastern Europe, to bolster the confidence of the alliance’s Central European and Baltic members. NATO’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday “we are prepared for the worst.”

Ukraine’s Western allies are also determined to harden the country’s cyber-defenses following a massive midweek denial of service cyber-attack, that the Ukrainians blame on Russia, and which targeted the web portal of the defense ministry. The cyber-attack also impacted Ukraine’s largest private bank, and another owned by the state as well as energy infrastructure.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, said the attack, which happened on Tuesday, was “unprecedented” and designed “to sow panic, to do everything so that a certain chaos appears in our country.” The Kremlin has denied any responsibility for the cyberattack.

Electronic warfare experts from the United States and Britain are being tasked to help Ukraine build more cyber-resilience and to spot vulnerable access points in key systems and to identify whether any disruptive malware has been planted, say Western officials.

NATO split

With the crisis prolonging, amid a Russian demand that NATO publicly guarantee Ukraine never joins the alliance as a member, there are signs that a split is emerging among Western allies over what concessions to offer the Kremlin in a bid to end the crisis.

Russia has demanded Ukraine never join NATO. And the Kremlin wants any NATO military presence removed from the former Communist countries of Central Europe, once members of the Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact and now participants in the western alliance.

The leaders of France and Germany, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, who have been shuttling between Moscow and Kyiv, are pressing Ukraine to announce that it will ditch its ambition to join NATO, Ukrainian officials have told VOA.

In an awkward moment Monday during a joint press conference in Kyiv, Scholz said that the issue of NATO membership for Ukraine “is practically not on the agenda.” But Zelenskiy suggested Ukraine would still like to join NATO, although he conceded that it is nothing more than a “dream” at this stage.

Other alliance members, especially Ukraine’s near neighbors, are opposed to closing the door formally on Ukraine joining NATO, fearing to do so would embolden the Kremlin and because it would undermine the alliance’s open-door policy and establish the right of bigger powers to dictate the foreign policy of smaller nations.

Macron and Scholz have also been urging President Zelenskiy to agree to implement a 6-year-old peace deal on the future of Ukraine’s Donbas region, parts of which have been under de facto Russian occupation since April 2014, and where an estimated 32,000 Russian troops are currently stationed.

Minsk accords

Known as Minsk Accords, which were brokered by France and Germany in 2015, the deal is highly unpopular in Ukraine and was agreed to by Kyiv at a time it was losing the war in the East and had little option but to sign.

Ukrainian politicians believe the accords could be used by the Kremlin to dominate its neighbor and meddle further in its domestic politics. The agreement was meant to bring fighting to a halt in the Donbas and proposed that the two Moscow-backed ‘breakaway republics’ in the region be reintegrated into Ukraine but retain considerable powers of self-government.

Last week, Ukraine’s president noticeably refrained from re-committing fully to the agreement during a joint news conference with Macron. On Wednesday, the Kyiv Independent news outlet quoted Ukrainian government and diplomatic sources as saying that both France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz had tried to push Kyiv to show progress in complying with the Minsk accords.

Former Swedish diplomat Fredrik Löjdquist worries about the crisis being prolonged by the Kremlin. He posted on social media already “the West has reacted on a playing field defined by Russia.” He fears Putin has achieved much by maneuvering Western governments into discussing Europe’s security and “by renewing pressure on Kyiv to make concessions on its sovereignty.”

But others maintain that Western powers, led by U.S. President Joe Biden, have been doing a good job in countering Putin and shaping a cohesive policy to contain Russia while retaining overall unity. Ian Bremmer, of the Eurasia Group, a risk assessment firm based in New York, credits Biden, “So far Ukraine policy is right on target,” he says.   

 
…

President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that France will withdraw its troops from Mali nine years after it first intervened to drive Islamic extremists from power but intends to maintain a military presence in neighboring West African nations.

Announcing the move during a Thursday news conference in Paris, Macron accused Mali’s ruling military junta of neglecting the fight against Islamic extremists and said it was logical for France to withdraw since its role is not to replace a sovereign state on the battlefield.

“Victory against terror is not possible if it’s not supported by the state itself,” the French leader said.

France has about 4,300 troops in the Sahel region, including 2,400 in Mali. The so-called Barkhane force is also involved in Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mauritania.

Macron said the French pullout would be done “in an orderly manner” in coordination with the Malian military. France will start by closing military bases in the north of Mali, and the withdrawal will take between four or six months, he said.

“We cannot remain militarily involved” alongside Malian transitional authorities with whom “we don’t share the strategy and goals,” Macron said.

European leaders simultaneously announced Thursday that troops from the European-led military task force known as Takuba also would withdraw from Mali. The Takuba task force is composed of several hundred special forces troops from about a dozen European countries, including France.

Tensions have grown between Mali, its African neighbors and the European Union, especially after the West African country’s transitional government allowed Russian mercenaries to deploy in its territory.

Macron said a coalition of allies will remain present in the Sahel and the Guinea Gulf to counter actions from Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

Macron organized a summit in Paris on Wednesday evening to address the issue with regional and European leaders of countries involved in the Sahel.

Representatives from Mali and Burkina Faso coup leaders were not invited since both nations were suspended from the African Union following coups.

Senegalese President Macky Sall, who also chairs the African Union, said security and the fight against terror was “vital” for both Europe and Africa.

Speaking alongside Macron, Sall said he understood the decisions by France and the EU to end theirs operation in Mali but was pleased that an agreement on a new arrangement was reached to provide a continued presence in the Sahel.

Sall said there was a consensus during among EU and African leaders during their discussions that the fight against terror “should not be the sole business of African countries.”

Macron said the “heart” of the French operation “won’t be in Mali anymore” but in neighboring Niger, especially in the region bordering Burkina Faso, Macron detailed.

He did not give an estimate of how many forces would take part in the new operation.

French forces have been active since 2013 in Mali, where they intervened to drive Islamic extremists from power. But the insurgents regrouped in the desert and began attacking the Malian army and its allies.

Macron said support for civilians in Mali would continue, but he blamed the junta now ruling the country for its decision to hire a private Russian military contractor known as the Wagner Group, which the EU accuses of fomenting violence and committing human rights abuses in Africa. 

 
…

The top European Union court ruled on Wednesday that the EU can withhold funding from member states that fail to uphold its rule of law principles, giving the bloc a powerful tool to enforce its democratic values. 

“The European Union must be able to defend those values, within the limits of its powers,” the European Court of Justice said in the ruling. The decision by the Luxembourg-based court cannot be appealed. 

“Today’s judgments confirm that we are on the right track,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said when announcing how the bloc would proceed in the next couple of weeks.  

The European Commission approved a rule 14 months ago allowing it to withhold funds from member states that deviate from European legal standards. It waited for the court’s ruling to move forward.  

Hungary and Poland, the most likely targets of the rule, have disputed the EU’s right to make such judgments, declaring them as illegitimate and an overstepping of authority. Both countries have faced severe criticism by EU members for their implementation of policies suppressing media rights and LGBTQ rights, and restricting judicial independence.  

“The ruling is another application of pressure against our country because we passed our child protection law during the summer,” said Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Varga, referring to legislation that forbids minors from obtaining media content that depicts homosexuality or gender transitioning. 

“We need to defend ourselves against an attack on our sovereignty,” said Polish Deputy Justice Minister Sebastian Kaleta. “Poland has to defend its democracy against blackmail that aims to take away our right to decide about ourselves.” 

The two countries are most directly affected by this new ruling. Being major recipients of EU funds since joining the bloc in 2004, Hungary and Poland have received billions in aid to rebuild their economies. 

The court has argued that state members’ democratic backsliding impacts both the budget and political matters of the 27-member union. 

EU admission criteria require that a candidate nation embrace respect for democracy and rule of law principles. In its ruling, the court said a state cannot abandon those standards once it achieves membership.  

“The court specifies, first, that compliance with those values cannot be reduced to an obligation which a candidate state must meet in order to accede to the European Union and which it may disregard after accession,” it said. 

Hungary and Poland have threatened to stall EU decisions requiring unanimity on issues such as foreign policy, climate, and energy, in efforts to retaliate, according to the Reuters news agency.  

 
…

NATO’s chief said on Wednesday there was no evidence that Russia was withdrawing forces from the Ukraine border, but he added there was still a chance for a diplomatic solution. NATO leaders and defense ministers were meeting in Brussels for talks. VOA Pentagon Correspondent Carla Babb has more.
…

Russia reiterated Wednesday that it had begun withdrawing some troops from close to the Ukrainian border. But many Western nations said there was little evidence of a pullback – and fear an invasion of Ukraine was still imminent. Henry Ridgwell reports.
…

France on Wednesday said a decision on salvaging Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers was just days away and that it was now up to Tehran to make the political choice.

Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the tattered agreement resumed last week after a 10-day hiatus and officials from the other parties to the accord – Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia – have shuttled between the two sides as they seek to close gaps.

Western diplomats previously indicated they hoped to have a breakthrough by now, but tough issues remain unresolved. Iran has rejected any deadline imposed by Western powers.

“We have reached tipping point now. It’s not a matter of weeks, it’s a matter of days,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told parliament, adding that the Western powers, Russia and China were in accord on the outlines of the accord.

“Political decisions are needed from the Iranians. Either they trigger a serious crisis in the coming days, or they accept the agreement which respects the interests of all parties.”

Several other sources tracking the talks said that the next couple of days would be crucial in determining whether there was a way to revive the agreement.

The agreement began to unravel in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States and reimposed broad economic sanctions on Iran, which then began breaching the deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment activity a year later.

Diplomats and analysts say the longer Iran remains outside the deal, the more nuclear expertise it will gain, shortening the time it might need to race to build a bomb if it chose to, thereby vitiating the accord’s original purpose. Tehran denies it has ever sought to develop nuclear arms.

Western diplomats say they are now in the final phase of the talks and believe that a deal is within reach.

‘Moment of Truth’

“We are coming to the moment of truth. If we want Iran to respect its (nuclear) non-proliferation commitments and in exchange for the United States to lift sanctions, there has to be something left to do it,” Le Drian said.

Iran’s foreign ministry said on Monday it was “in a hurry” to strike a new deal as long as its national interests were protected and that restoring the pact required “political decisions by the West.”

Ali Shamkhani, hardline secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, underlined Iranian wariness by saying on Wednesday that the 2015 accord had become economically worthless for Iran and he blamed the United States and European powers.

“The United States and Europe failed to meet their obligations under the (deal). The deal has now become an empty shell for Iran in the economic sphere and the lifting of sanctions. There will be no negotiations beyond the nuclear deal with a non-compliant America and a passive Europe,” he tweeted.

China’s envoy to the talks said on Wednesday Iran was being constructive by putting everything on the table in response to U.S. approaches. “They have not only adopted this straightforward approach but also made a political decision based on give and take,” Wang Qun told Reuters.

Bones of contention remain Iran’s demand for a U.S. guarantee of no more sanctions or other punitive steps in future, and how and when to restore verifiable restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear activity.

The agreement curbed Iran’s enrichment of uranium to make it harder for Tehran to develop material for nuclear weapons, in return for a lifting of international sanctions.

The Islamic Republic has since rebuilt stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity, close to weapons-grade, and installed advanced centrifuges to speed up enrichment.
…

President Emmanuel Macron hosts African leaders on Wednesday ahead of an expected announcement that France is withdrawing its troops from Mali after an almost decade-long deployment to battle a jihadist insurgency.

Multiple sources have told AFP that Macron will announce that French forces will leave Mali and redeploy elsewhere in the Sahel region, following a breakdown in relations with the ruling junta.

It remains unclear when, and how, Macron will make the announcement, which could come as part of Wednesday’s meeting or when he travels to Brussels on Thursday for a two-day EU-Africa summit.

The deployment in Mali of a European force known as Takuba — a project driven by Macron to spread the security burden in the troubled region — will also come to an end, the sources said.

The Mali deployment has been fraught with problems for France, with 48 of the 53 soldiers killed during its Barkhane mission in West Africa losing their lives in the country.

France initially deployed troops against jihadists in Mali in 2013 but the insurgency was never fully quelled, and new fears have now emerged of a jihadist push to the Gulf of Guinea.

The announcement of the withdrawal comes at a critical time for Macron, just days ahead of a long-awaited declaration from the president that he will stand for a new term in April elections.

It also coincides with Macron seeking to take a lead role in international diplomacy as he presses Russia to de-escalate in the standoff over Ukraine.

Multiple missions

The working dinner hosted by Macron on Wednesday starting at 1930 GMT will bring together the leaders of France’s key allies in the Sahel region — Chad, Mauritania and Niger.

Officials from Mali as well as Burkina Faso, which also recently experienced a coup, have pointedly not been invited.

Other African leaders will also be present along with European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, as well as Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

There are a total of 25,000 foreign troops currently deployed in the Sahel.

They include around 4,300 French troops, which under a reduction announced last year are due to fall to around 2,500 in 2023 from a peak of 5,400.

Other forces deployed in Mali are the U.N. peacekeeping mission MINUSMA established in 2013 and the EUTM Mali, an EU military training mission that aims to improve the Malian military’s capacity in fighting terrorists.

Some 2,400 French soldiers are deployed in Mali as part of the Barkhane operation as well as the EU Takuba force set up in 2020, which was intended to increase in numbers as French deployment was scaled back.

According to a French source, who asked not to be identified by name, even after departure France will for a period provide MINUSMA and EUTM with support in the air and medical back-up.

‘Reinvent partnership’

Relations between France and Mali have plunged to new lows after the junta led by strongman Assimi Goita refused to stick to a calendar to a return to civilian rule.

The West also accuses Mali of using the services of the hugely controversial Russian mercenary group Wagner to shore up its position, a move that gives Moscow a new foothold in the region.

Especially with the French elections looming, Macron’s priority is to ensure that any withdrawal does not invite comparisons with the chaotic American departure from Afghanistan last year.

Paris, however, intends to continue the anti-jihadist fight in the wider region, where movements affiliated with al-Qaida or the Islamic State group have retained an ability to attack despite the elimination of key leaders.

“We need to reinvent our military partnership with these countries,” said a French presidential source, asking for anonymity.

“It is not a question of moving what is being done in Mali elsewhere, but of reinforcing what is being done in Niger and of supporting the south more.”
…

Everything is normal — or appears so.

Outside the grand nineteenth-century city hall in Lviv, the capital of western Ukraine where Western embassies hurriedly relocated consular staff from Kyiv earlier this week, the streets are bustling.

Children squeal with delight as they try to master their roller-skates in an outdoor skating rink nearby. Their breath steams in the chill evening air. Young lovers kiss, some argue, outside restaurants and bars. Older couples saunter through the narrow streets of Lviv’s historic center, seemingly in their twilight years without a care in the world.

Lviv is much more a tourist town than the Ukrainian capital but there are few foreign visitors here now thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, travel restrictions and the talk of war. Outside a bar a couple of inebriated middle-aged Dutchmen, among the few tourists, linger outside the White Rabbit strip club, debating whether to enter. Their discussion concludes much more rapidly than the diplomatic wrangling over Ukraine, and they stagger inside.

Workers hurry home as the evening turns colder.

But everything is not normal on the eve of the day Western intelligence agencies had warned Russia might invade Ukraine.

“We talk about war and whether Russia will invade all the time,” says Anastasia, a 25-year-old waitress. She moved from a small town in Central Ukraine to Lviv for work, and because she loves the city.

Her face clouds when she talks about Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. “I have family in Russia, too,” she says. “I hope he doesn’t invade; he won’t invade; he can’t; maybe he will,” she says, confused by a riddle that’s also bewildering the statesmen of Europe.

Anastasia shrugs — it is a very Ukrainian gesture, indicating not indifference, just stoicism in the face of the unknown.

For eight years, since Russia annexed Crimea and fomented war in the Donbas region in the east of the country, Ukraine has been collectively shrugging its shoulders — its way of enduring threats and alarms and not allowing fear to disrupt ordinary life.

Carrying on

And that is what it did as Tuesday turned into Wednesday, the day the Russians were supposed to invade. The country shrugged its shoulders and carried on undaunted. In much the same way it has coped with the coronavirus pandemic, aware of the risks but decidedly reluctant to offer the virus any concessions, like actually wearing masks or frequently disinfecting hands.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy declared earlier this week February 16 a Day of Unity, signing decree number 53/2022. He called on Ukrainians to fly flags and sing the national anthem in unison. Ukrainian government officials stressed that Zelenskiy was not predicting an attack Wednesday but responding skeptically to foreign reports about when an attack was likely to come.

“They tell us Feb. 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it a day of unity,” Zelenskiy said in a video address to the nation earlier this week. “They are trying to frighten us by yet again naming a date for the start of military action,” Zelenskiy said. “We will hang our national flags, wear yellow and blue banners, and show the whole world our unity,” he added.

In Lviv, a city all too accustomed through its seven centuries of turbulent and often violent history to invasion and assault, Unity Day was a subdued affair. For most people it was a day much like any other. They just carried on, generally maskless, neither optimistic nor pessimistic: just fatalistic.

“Every president declares this day or that day a holiday, but it is not a religious one,” said Dmitry, a newspaper vendor at a kiosk near St. George’s Cathedral. With a hint of exasperation in his voice, he added: “We are not unpatriotic, but carrying on as normal.”

Nearby at a cafe, Denys, a venture capitalist and equities dealer, says there’s normal and then there is “Ukrainian normal.” He asked for his company not to be identified in this article.

“We have lived with a crazy neighbor for a long time — some would say for centuries,” he says. “Until last week, we weren’t really worried. I think most Ukrainians thought this was just more of the same, not dissimilar to what we have seen since 2014,” he added.

“That changed last week because of an accumulation of factors — intensifying news coverage, embassies leaving Kyiv and airlines canceling flights,” says the father of a one-half-year-old, Mia.

Denys and his wife decided last week to relocate for a couple of weeks to Lviv. “It seemed prudent,” he explained as his blue-eyed daughter paraded around the cafe, dragging a blanket and chuckling. He and his partner and their families are originally from Donetsk, and they all left the city in a hurry in 2014, when armed Russian proxies seized the city.

“My company owns property in Lviv and we had a contingency plan for relocation, so we decided just to put it into operation.” He has never thought Putin would gamble by launching a full-scale invasion. “This has been more of an information war and maybe it will allow all sides to win: Joe Biden and other Western leaders being able to say they are peacemakers, and Putin able to present himself as the lone defender of the Russian people,” he says.

Denys plans to return to Kyiv Sunday, but he’s still scrutinizing the news to see if his hunch is correct.
…

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday he is “troubled by dubious new charges” against Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, who went on trial Tuesday in a penal colony outside of Moscow.

Navalny is accused of embezzlement and contempt of court. If convicted, he could face up to 15 more years in prison. 

“Navalny and his associates are targeted for their work to shine a light on official corruption,” Blinken tweeted. He added a call for Russian authorities to release Navalny “and end their harassment and prosecution of his supporters.” 

The Kremlin critic was arrested in January 2021 and convicted of violating his parole by spending several months in Germany recovering from a poison attack. He was sentenced to two-and-a-half years in prison.

At his new trial, Russian investigators say Navalny embezzled money donated to his FBK anti-corruption political organization. The contempt of court charge stems from Navalny allegedly insulting a judge during a previous trial. 

“It is just that these people, who ordered this trial, are really scared,” Navalny, 45, said during the hearing. “(Scared) of what I say during this trial, of people seeing that the case is obviously fabricated.”  

Navalny adamantly denies the accusations and calls them politically motivated.  

“I am not afraid of this court, of the penal colony, the F.S.B., of the prosecutors, chemical weapons, Putin and all others,” Navalny said in court, according to a video of his statement. “I am not afraid because I believe it is humiliating and useless to be afraid of it all.”

Navalny’s allies have denounced the case, and his lawyer says it is an attempt by the Kremlin to silence him.

“We believe the persecution of Navalny is illegal, is distinctly political in nature, and aimed at discrediting and removing him from political activity,” lawyer Olga Mikhailova said, according to Agence France-Presse. 

A longtime rival of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Navalny has accused the president of enrichening himself as well as other government officials through corrupt measures. His attempt at running in the 2018 presidential elections only aggravated his relations with the Kremlin. 

As of a few months ago Navalny and his associates have been added to a state registry of extremists and terrorists by Russian officials. 
…

Catholic groups Tuesday accused Italy’s Church of an “institutional failure” to confront clergy sexual abuse and demanded an independent national inquiry mirroring ones conducted in France and Germany. 

A collective of nine groups — seven headed by women — issued the demand during the launch of a campaign called “Beyond the Great Silence” and a hashtag, #ItalyChurchToo, inspired by the international #MeToo movement against sexual harassment. 

In an online news conference, Paola Lazzarini, head of Women for the Church, called for the opening of the archives of “all dioceses, convents and monasteries,” damages for victims and the uncovering of the truth, “however painful.” 

Globally, revelations of sexual abuse by clergy have so far cost the Church hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation. 

The Italian campaign aims to increase public pressure on the Church and the government for a national inquiry going back decades and rejects assertions from some Italian Catholic leaders that the Church has the resources to do the work itself. 

“Only independent investigations (elsewhere) have overcome the Church’s resistance to recognize its own institutional failure,” said anti-abuse advocate Ludovica Eugenio. 

Any Italian investigation “absolutely has to be impartial,” added Francesco Zanardi, head of Rete L’Abuso (The Abuse Network). 

Pope Francis has expressed shame at the Church’s inability to deal with sexual abuse cases and said it must make itself a “safe home for everyone.” 

The Vatican had no comment Tuesday. 

Italian bishops are due to decide in May on what type of abuse inquiry, if any, the country will hold. 

Antonio Messina, 28, one of the victims who participated in the news conference, says he was repeatedly abused when he was a minor by an adult seminarian who went on to become a priest. 

Without providing details, he said local church authorities in his hometown had tried to buy his silence. “The Church is not able to handle this (investigation),” he said. 

The German study, released in 2018, showed 1,670 clergymen abused 3,677 minors from 1946 to 2014. The French investigation, released last year and covering seven decades, said more than 200,000 children were abused in Catholic institutions. 

Zanardi said the figures would be higher in predominantly Catholic Italy because the country has traditionally had many more priests. 

 
…

Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny went on trial Tuesday in a penal colony outside of Moscow, accused of embezzlement and contempt of court. If convicted, he could face up to 15 more years in prison. 

The hearing is taking place inside the maximum-security prison in Moscow’s Lefortovsky district court, where he is being held, 96 kilometers from Moscow. 

The Kremlin critic was arrested in January 2021 and convicted of violating his parole by spending several months in Germany recovering from a poison attack. He was sentenced to 2½ years in prison. 

At his new trial, Russian investigators say Navalny embezzled money donated to his FBK anti-corruption political organization. The contempt of court charge stems from Navalny allegedly insulting a judge during a previous trial. 

“It is just that these people, who ordered this trial, are really scared,” Navalny, 45, said during the hearing. “(Scared) of what I say during this trial, of people seeing that the case is obviously fabricated.” 

Navalny adamantly denies the accusations and calls them politically motivated. 

“I am not afraid of this court, of the penal colony, the F.S.B., of the prosecutors, chemical weapons, Putin and all others,” Navalny said in court, according to a video of his statement. “I am not afraid because I believe it is humiliating and useless to be afraid of it all.” 

Navalny’s allies have denounced the case, and his lawyer says it is an attempt by the Kremlin to silence him. 

“We believe the persecution of Navalny is illegal, is distinctly political in nature, and aimed at discrediting and removing him from political activity,” lawyer Olga Mikhailova said, according to Agence France-Presse. 

A longtime rival of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Navalny has accused the president of enrichening himself as well as other government officials through corrupt measures. His attempt at running in the 2018 presidential elections only aggravated his relations with the Kremlin. 

As of a few months ago Navalny and his associates have been added to a state registry of extremists and terrorists by Russian officials. 

 
…

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has arrived in Brussels for talks with NATO leadership and allied defense ministers, as tens of thousands of Russian troops have surrounded Ukraine from the north, south and east.

During the gathering on Wednesday and Thursday, Austin and his counterparts will discuss how to deter Russia from invading Ukraine while shoring up defenses on the alliance’s eastern flank.

“This really is a decisive moment for NATO, the likes of which we have not really seen potentially since NATO was established in 1949,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “This is where American leadership in NATO matters,” he told VOA.

The “underlying message” from NATO and the United States will be to protect the international rules-based order by calling out “egregious attempts to undermine the rule of law” and “upholding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states,” according to a senior defense official.

“We cannot allow an adversary to try to redraw borders by force without facing significant consequences,” the official added.

Austin will then travel to NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Russian neighbors that have watched the developments surrounding Ukraine with increasing concern.

While in Poland on Friday, Austin will meet with President Andrzej Duda before visiting U.S. troops. The United States will soon have about 9,000 troops in Poland after President Joe Biden earlier this month ordered nearly 5,000 additional troops to deploy there, citing security concerns due to Russia’s recent moves.

In Lithuania, Austin will meet with President Gitanas Nauseda and host a meeting with that country’s defense minister along with those from Estonia and Latvia.

President Joe Biden said Tuesday Russia has 150,000 troops surrounding Ukraine, including in Belarus to the north, the illegally annexed Crimea region to the south, and along the Russian border with Ukraine to the east. Russian ships are also exercising nearby in the Black Sea, which prompted a formal protest from Ukraine’s foreign ministry.

“I think of a boa constrictor that is squeezing Ukraine to force the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky to blink, to make some giant concession,” retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who once commanded U.S. Army forces in Europe, told VOA.

Russia’s defense ministry announced Tuesday that some military units would pull back to their bases, a claim that Biden said the U.S. had not yet verified.

Meanwhile, Russian legislators passed proposals Tuesday calling on President Vladimir Putin to formally recognize the separatist-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine as independent states, in a move that could justify an incursion in an area it no longer recognizes as Ukraine’s territory.

The United States has pushed for a diplomatic solution to the tensions and has said it will not fight Russian forces in Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO.

The U.S. has shipped planeloads of lethal military aid to Ukraine in recent weeks, including Javelin anti-tank weapons and ammunition. A small number of U.S. troops had also trained Ukrainian soldiers through a program that started following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, but those troops were ordered by Austin to leave Ukraine a few days ago, citing concerns that a potential Russian invasion could come at any moment.

NATO allies have made multiple attempts to get Putin to pull his troops away from Ukraine’s border and have threatened severe economic sanctions should Russian troops invade.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Moscow on Tuesday for talks with Putin. Biden called Putin on Saturday. French President Emanuel Macron spoke face to face with Putin last week.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, on the other hand, expressed his support for Putin during the heightened tensions over Moscow’s forces surrounding Ukraine.

Current and former U.S. officials have warned that an invasion of Ukraine could embolden other adversaries.

“If the United States with all of our allies, all of our partners and the combined diplomatic and economic power, cannot deter the Kremlin from … another attack on Ukraine, then I think the Chinese Communist Party leadership is not going to be terribly impressed by anything that we say about Taiwan or the South China Sea,” Hodges said.
…

The European Union and African Union are holding their once every-three-year summit this week, after a two-year delay due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Leaders from the two continents will meet in Brussels to discuss, among other things, the reaction to the pandemic and helping Africa adapt to climate change.

African countries are not happy with the EU travel bans, vaccine distribution, and unwillingness to lift intellectual property rights on vaccines that can help the continent produce COVID vaccines. 

Tobias Wellner is a senior analyst with Dragonfly Intelligence, a group that studies global security and political risks. He said the summit will focus on mending relations strained by the pandemic.  

“African leaders were very upset about travel restrictions imposed by European states and we can expect that they will also speak out against the unequal distribution of COVID vaccines,” Wellner said. “Overall, the summit is probably going to be much more about reconnecting after troubled pandemic times, rather than a large diplomatic leap forward.” 

French President Emmanuel Macron told journalists his country and the EU will prioritize the relationship with Africa and establish a peace system that can build investments in African economies. 

The EU is facing competition in Africa from China, which has backed huge infrastructure projects across the continent, and also from Russia which is challenging France’s influence in central and western African countries.   

Wellner said the European Union cannot abandon its vision of seeing good governance and respect for people’s rights in Africa. 

“The EU will likely continue conditioning economic and security support for African countries on its principles, democracy, human rights and the rule of law,” Wellner said. “In this regard, the EU is probably going to continue acting more cautiously and differently from — for example — from China. There is unlikely to be a large change of politics at the summit. EU policy change takes a lot of time to change, because there are a lot of different positions within Europe that all need to be brought together. So the change, especially on the institutional levels, tends to be quite long.” 

 The two-day conference will also focus on concerns over how to mitigate the impact of climate change in Africa.  

Wanjira Mathai, the vice-president and regional director at the World Resources Institute, says rich countries need to pay for adaptation programs.  

“The biggest polluters, 80% of all global emissions, sit within the G20 and so those economies have to do the most to reduce their emissions,” Mathai said. “The climate finance agenda there has been for many years. Africa is one of the climate-vulnerable regions but we also have others but the majority of countries that require finance to take care of the adaptation capacity that finance have not been forthcoming. We know there were $100 billion goals that were not met, so there is a very clear agenda to meet the shortfall of that $100 billion.” 

Speaking at a webinar organized by the Europe Africa Foundation last month, Senegalese President Macky Sall said there was a need to develop a climate-friendly strategy and consider the level of development of African countries. 

 
…

Britain’s Prince Andrew has settled a lawsuit from Virginia Giuffre, the woman who accused him of sexually assaulting her when she was 17.

News of the settlement came in a letter filed with a Manhattan court Tuesday by Giuffre’s lawyer David Boies.

Details of the settlement have not been disclosed, but the letter said Andrew “intends to make a substantial donation to Ms. Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights.”

“Prince Andrew has never intended to malign Ms. Giuffre’s character, and he accepts that she has suffered both as an established victim of abuse and as a result of unfair public attacks,” the letter reads. “It is known that Jeffrey Epstein trafficked countless young girls over many years. Prince Andrew regrets his association with Epstein and commends the bravery of Ms. Giuffre and other survivors in standing up for themselves and others.”

Giuffre, now 38, says she was trafficked by Epstein and his longtime companion Ghislaine Maxwell, who was recently convicted of sex trafficking.

Giuffre says the two forced her to perform sexual acts with Andrew. Andrew has denied the charges and did not admit to any of the accusations against him in Tuesday’s statement.

In 2019, Epstein was found dead in a Manhattan jail while he awaited another trial for sex trafficking. His death was ruled a suicide.

Last month, Andrew’s mother, Queen Elizabeth II, stripped him of all his military and royal duties.
…

Britain announced Tuesday it would co-host an international conference with the United Nations next month to help address the growing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, where aid workers fear acute hunger could kill more people than the preceding 20 years of war.

The conference is being organized to raise $4.4 billion the U.N. is seeking to deliver food, shelter and health services to about 23 million Afghans — more than half of the country’s population – that need aid to survive.

“The scale of need is unparalleled, and consequences of inaction will be devastating,” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said in a statement.

“The conference is a critical moment for the international community to step up support in an effort to stop the growing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan,” Truss stressed.

Tuesday’s announcement comes nearly a week after a high-level British delegation traveled to the Afghan capital, Kabul, for talks with Taliban leaders on how to respond to Afghanistan’s deepening humanitarian crisis.

Aid agencies say humanitarian needs have skyrocketed in the war-torn country since the Taliban took power last year and U.S.-led international forces withdrew from the country.

When the Islamist group took control of Afghanistan on August 15, wide-ranging terrorism-related international sanctions dating back to the Taliban’s first time in power from 1996 to 2001 followed.

The United States and other Western nations have also suspended non-humanitarian funding, amounting to 40% of the country’s gross domestic product. The funding had propped up 75% of public spending, including basic services.

Washington has frozen about $9.5 billion in Afghan foreign assets, mostly held in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to keep the Taliban from accessing it.

The punitive financial measures have pushed the aid-dependent Afghan economy to the brink of collapse and exacerbated the simmering humanitarian crisis, which stems from more than four decades of conflict and natural calamities.

No country has recognized the Taliban government but international engagements with the group have gradually increased to help prevent one of the world’s worst humanitarian emergencies.

The International Rescue Committee said Tuesday that 97% of the Afghan population is expected to be living well below the poverty line by the second half of this year.

“Unaddressed, the current humanitarian crisis could lead to more deaths than 20 years of war,” the IRC warned.

Vicki Aken, IRC Afghanistan director, said the current economic crisis is contributing to a “catastrophic” humanitarian emergency, urging the U.S. and Europe to review their policy to help address the Afghan economic crisis.

Aken blamed the international policies for driving Afghanistan’s slide towards catastrophe, rather than conflict or natural disaster.

“Right now, every day Afghans are being punished by international policies that are leaving millions on the brink of starvation, she said.

“The next six months necessitate an improvement, and the power to ensure it happens lies in the hands of the international community,” she said. The cost of failure is too high,” Aken warned.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has taken steps to allow for humanitarian operations to continue, making changes to U.S. laws and following it up with a resolution at the U.N. Security Council.

“The U.S. strongly encourages both direct provision of humanitarian assistance as well as financial transactions that support those agencies that are providing humanitarian assistance,” a USAID official told VOA. “We have made it legal.”

Some relatives of victims of the September 2001 terror attacks on the United States have sought to gain access to the Afghan frozen funds since the Taliban takeover, to pay out compensation claims.

On Friday, President Joe Biden signed an executive order that will keep half of that money frozen for potential lawsuits and facilitate access to the other $3.5 billion to assist the Afghan people. The action has stoked anger among Afghans and critics warned it would worsen the economic crisis in the country.

Margaret Besheer at the UN contributed to this report.
…

Little more than a week ago, the questions from non-Chinese reporters at daily Olympics briefings were about sensitive things involving China — tennis player Peng Shuai, the government’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims in the northwest, the efficiency of the anti-COVID “closed-loop system.”

These days, they’re all about a drug scandal — the one with Russia at the center — and not much else.

The doping saga unfolding around Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva has been a Games-changer at the Beijing Olympics, pushing aside dicey topics that Chinese officials like to avoid answering.

“The big winner in the Valieva scandal is the Chinese government,” Olympic historian David Wallechinsky said in an email. He has been a consistent critic of China’s government and stayed away from these Games, his first Olympic absence since 1988.

“What a relief for them to not have to fend off comments about human rights,” Wallechinsky quipped.

The focus is now on 15-year-old Valieva, which will continue through her long program on Thursday when she is expected to win gold — her second of the Games — but be banned from any medal ceremony after failing a pre-Games doping test.

The IOC has said it “would not be appropriate to hold the medal ceremony” with her case sure to wind up again in the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which ruled on Monday that she could compete. She seems sure to dominate the briefings until the Games end on Sunday, leaving room for little else.

Peng, once the world’s No. 1-ranked tennis doubles player, made sexual assault allegations against a former high-ranking member of China’s ruling Communist Party. The charges three months ago were scrubbed immediately from China’s censored internet, placing the subject out of bounds for Chinese reporters.

Yang Shu’an, the high-profile organizing committee vice president, nearly stumbled in a briefing when — speaking in English — he was asked about Peng and almost mentioned her by name. Of course, saying it would acknowledge that Chinese officials are aware of her case.

China’s internment of at least 1 million Uyghurs has been termed genocide by the United States and others, which China calls the “lie of the century.” This topic is also off limits for Chinese reporters and, by its own choice, the International Olympic Committee.

“The position of the IOC must be, given the political neutrality, that we are not commenting on political issues,” IOC President Thomas Bach said at the briefing Feb. 3, the day before the Games opened. Bach also seldom mentions the Uyghurs by name.

Still, uncomfortable queries about Peng and the Uyghurs kept coming as the Games opened. COVID-19 questions were popular, too, as was criticism about China’s “case-hardened” bubble that separates reporters and athletes from 20 million Beijing residents.

There was a question about Jack Ma, China’s e-commerce billionaire who has largely disappeared from public view. Ma is the founder of the Alibaba Group, which is a major IOC sponsor.

There were persistent questions about athletes’ safety if their comments upset officials of China’s authoritarian government. But those began to fade as few spoke up.

Then came Feb. 9: Day 5 of the Olympics.

“A situation arose today at short notice which requires legal consultation,” IOC spokesman Adams said. “You’ll appreciate because there are legal implications involved that I can’t talk very much about it at this stage.”

Non-Chinese reporters quizzed Adams about the details for days. Questions from Chinese state-controlled media continued to center on soliciting laudatory comments about the venues, offering praise of the efficient organization — and laments about the scarce supply of Bing Dwen Dwen panda mascots.

Much news is local, so Chinese reporters are not alone in this. But not one offered a question about Valieva as non-Chinese continued to press Adams about the unfolding mystery.

“I can’t give you any more details,” Adams said. He repeated this for several days in varied forms. “I’m afraid, as you know, legal issues can sometimes drag on.”

After days of dominating the briefings, news came Monday that Valieva had been cleared to compete despite failing a pre-Games drug test. She skates this week and is the favorite to win the gold on Thursday, where she may lead a 1-2-3 sweep by Russian women.

And everybody’s watching. They’ll be doing so not just for her skating prowess, but for the next chapter in the saga of a girl buffeted by powerful forces and a nation known for doing what it takes to get the outcome it wants.

A nation that, for the moment, isn’t China.

“This is likely a welcome distraction from other potential subversions or critiques of the Games and of China at large,” Maria Repnikova, a China expert at Georgia State University, said in a email to Associated Press.

“Since the Olympics tend to present apt opportunities for the international community to investigate and widely report on the host country, having a scandal that takes the attention away from China in this case plays in favor of Chinese authorities.”
…

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged Russia, Ukraine and the West on Monday to de-escalate tensions, saying “there is no alternative to diplomacy.” 

“The price in human suffering, destruction and damage to European and global security is too high to contemplate,” he said of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the West says could happen as soon as Wednesday. 

“We simply cannot accept even the possibility of such a disastrous confrontation,” he said at United Nations headquarters.  

He pledged to remain engaged with the parties, offering his offices to help find a solution.  

Guterres spoke to reporters after returning from a regular monthly luncheon held with the 15 members of the U.N. Security Council. Russia holds the rotating presidency of the council this month and hosted the luncheon at their U.N. mission.   

Earlier Monday, Guterres had a virtual meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that lasted about 20 minutes. He then spoke separately with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.   

Guterres did not divulge details of his discussions, but he welcomed recent diplomatic contacts, including among heads of state. But he cautioned that incendiary rhetoric is not helpful.  

“Public statements should aim to reduce tensions, not inflame them,” the U.N. chief said.   

He also quoted from the U.N. Charter, emphasizing its call on members to settle their international disputes peacefully and refrain “from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”   

“Abandoning diplomacy for confrontation is not a step over a line, it is a dive over a cliff,” Guterres warned. “In short, my appeal is this: Do not fail the cause of peace.”   
…

Despite their popularity in recent years, Azerbaijan’s Valentine’s Day celebrations are somewhat muted this year. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, as well as poverty, are blamed by some shopkeepers for the gloomy attitude.

“During the pandemic, our business has been weak. Can’t sell much,” street vendor Tamkin Nagiyev told VOA. “People ask the price, then citing the high prices, they do not purchase. They just celebrate it with one flower.”

Ruslan Abdullayev, a flower shop owner, confirmed the pandemic’s impact, saying consumers’ ability to cope has been severely weakened.

“Previously, we sold each flower for 20 Manats ($11.75). Now, they don’t even want to buy it for 10,” said Abdullayev, who noted that while food prices have risen, flower prices have decreased.

Valentine’s Day is not an official holiday in Azerbaijan. It gained popularity in recent years through Western influence and has special appeal to younger generations. The day offers yet another occasion for those seeking to demonstrate their appreciation for love, fueled by commercial interests, social media and possibly a love of chocolate.

Many people in Baku, Azerbaijan’s largely Muslim capital, told VOA they approve of the day.

“We are not opposed to its celebration,” Ilhama Mammadova said. “Every woman would want to love and be loved. To be loved is the right of each woman.”

Another Baku resident, Orkhan Dadashov, agreed.

“Love doesn’t have a day. But speaking materially, at least once a year we can buy a flower and celebrate it. Everyone can do so according to his or her means,” Dadashov said.

But Elkhan Arifli, who celebrates Islamic religious holidays, said he does not consider Valentine’s Day to be a national holiday for Azerbaijanis.

“Actually, this is not our holiday. This is a Christian holiday. Lovers don’t have a day. For those who love, every day is a holiday,” he told VOA.

In recent months, several Azerbaijanis proposed moving Valentine’s Day from February 14 to June 30, the wedding day of Ilham and Fariza Allahverdiyeva, who came to symbolize Azerbaijan’s struggle for independence from the Soviet Union in 1990. Ilham was among dozens killed by gunfire while protesting for independence. Fariza committed suicide soon after. Their love story is still remembered.

Many, like Baku resident Farida Mehdiyeva, still consider Valentine’s Day a positive cultural addition for those who attach significance to romance.

“True, some people do not want us to celebrate this day,” Mehdiyeva said. “But I do. I personally feel the mood of celebration.”

This story originated in VOA’s Azerbaijan Service with contributions from Asgar Asgarov.

 
…

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting the United Arab Emirates, hoping to repair strained ties. Analysts say shared concerns over Iran could provide common ground.

Erdogan said that his two-day visit to the United Arab Emirates, which began Monday, aims to ease years of tension and rivalry with the Persian Gulf state.

He said that with the visit, Turkey aims to develop the momentum it has achieved and to take the necessary steps to bring relations back to the level, he said, they deserve.

Turkey has found itself increasingly isolated across the Middle East, due largely to Ankara’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood Islamist group, something that has caused unease among many Middle Eastern leaders.

Teacher of international relations Soli Ozel at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University says Erdogan’s UAE visit is part of a wider regional reset, with Iran providing crucial common ground.

“Turkey’s charm offensive has targeted several countries, with one of them the United Arab Emirates. Both countries have an interest, along with all the western countries, for Iran not to be so influential as it is today,” he said.

Turkey is increasingly in competition with Iran, from the Caucasus to Syria.

Last week Turkish pro-government media reported several alleged Iranian agents were arrested in Turkey in a joint Turkish-Israeli intelligence service operation to thwart the assassination of a Turkish-Israeli businessman.

The arrests came after Iran recently cut off natural gas supplies to Turkey for more than a week, causing much of the country’s manufacturing sector to shut down for several days.

Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the European Council, says there are suspicions the gas shut-off may have been politically motivated.

“We’ve seen Iran cut off the natural gas for Turkey ostensibly because [it] had something breaking down or it [Iran] needed it for its internal market. But it’s no coincidence that this happened after a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Iran leader [Ebrahim] Raisi. This was clearly a message to Turkey,” she said.

Iran and Russia are working closely together in Syria in backing the Damascus regime, while Turkey backs Syrian rebels. Moscow has also voiced its anger over Ankara selling armed drones to Ukraine.

Analyst Ozel warns that the Turkish-Iranian rivalry is likely to escalate, with Ankara sharing Western and Middle Eastern countries’ fears over Iran’s nuclear energy program.

“If Turkey wants to jump on board in that struggle, then yes, we can expect Turkish-Iranian relations to be a bit testy. On the other hand, Turkey and Iran manage to have competitive and cooperative relations for centuries, so they are pretty well versed on how to do that,” he said.

If there’s a breakdown in talks between Iran and the international community to resolve concerns over Iran’s nuclear energy program, analysts warn that Turkey’s effort to balance competition and rivalry with its Iranian neighbor could face a greater test.
…

Polish ministers say they are drafting plans with the country’s regional governors to cope with the possible arrival of up to a million refugees from neighboring Ukraine in the event Russia decides to invade — an action U.S. and British officials have warned could come as early as this week.

Mariusz Kamiński, the country’s interior minister, sought to reassure Poles the country is ready for what could be the biggest refugee crisis to roil Europe since 2015, when the influx into the European Union of more than a million refugees and migrants from the Middle East and the sub-Sahara roiled the continent’s politics.

“It is obvious that in connection with the situation in Ukraine we have been preparing for different scenarios,” the interior minister said in a posting on Twitter. “One of them includes activities by provincial governors related to the potential influx of refugees from Ukraine, who may be looking for shelter in our country as a result of the potential conflict,” he added.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has warned Poles that a “military conflict is no longer an unlikely scenario” and, echoing the warnings of officials in Washington and London, said Europe is “on the verge of war.” On Sunday, he accused Russia of trying once again to violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity, which he dubbed “an assault on European stability and security” and a “threat to the peace of the entire continent.”

Poland is already home to around one million Ukrainians, who arrived over the years as economic migrants. Poland is not the only central European nation readying for a refugee surge. Latvia has said it is preparing to accept 10,000 Ukrainian refugees, if Russian President Vladimir Putin orders an invasion of Ukraine.

Estonian President Alar Karis is warning that a similar migrant crisis could occur between Estonia and Russia as happened between Poland and Belarus, when migrants were pushed toward the border last year in an apparent attempt to create chaos by Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian leader and Putin ally.

“Tensions are very high,” Karis told the BBC.

Moscow denials

The Kremlin denies Western accusations that it is planning to invade Ukraine, despite deploying along Ukrainian borders the biggest ground force amassed since 1945. Russia’s foreign ministry says Western media are colluding in a smear campaign against Moscow with the goal of “discrediting Russia’s fair demands on security guarantees and justifying the West’s geopolitical aspirations and militarization of the territory of Ukraine.”

Russia has demanded Ukraine never join NATO. And the Kremlin wants any NATO military presence removed from the former Communist countries of central Europe, once members of the Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact and now participants in the Western alliance.

U.S. and British officials remain unconvinced by Russia’s denials.

“There are 130,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine; thousands more in amphibious vehicles on the Black Sea and the Azov Sea,” Britain’s armed forces minister, James Heappey, said Monday. “If all of this were for show, to win leverage in diplomacy, that doesn’t need the logistics, the fuel, the medical supplies, the bridging assets, the unglamorous stuff that makes an invasion force credible but doesn’t attract headlines. All of that is now in place too,” he added.

Flights

According to reports, some wealthy Ukrainians are not waiting to see whether a Russian offensive is launched. Ukrainska Pravda, a Kyiv-based newspaper, reported there has been an increase in private executive jets leaving Ukraine.

The paper said more than 20 private jets flew out of Kyiv on February 13 and over the last two weeks aircraft owned by some of the country’s richest oligarchs and businessmen, including Rinat Akhmetov, Victor Pinchuk, Borys Kolesnikov and Vadym Stolar, left the country, with many carrying family members and business associates and most heading to Vienna.

While the wealthy apparently are departing, the Ukrainian government is scrambling to ensure commercial carriers continue to fly in and out of Ukraine. Last week, Dutch airline KLM announced it was suspending Ukraine operations because of safety concerns. And the flights of Ukrainian budget airline SkyUp have been disrupted because a leasing company is demanding the return of its aircraft.

Other airlines, including German carrier Lufthansa, are weighing their options, partly because their insurers are becoming jittery. Ukraine’s transport ministry said Sunday that Ukrainian skies remain open. “Information about the closure of Ukraine’s airspace is not true. Closure of airspace is a sovereign right of Ukraine; no decision has been made,” it said in a statement.

The ministry announced a $590 million fund to be used for “guaranteeing the safety of flights through Ukraine for insurance companies, reinsurers, leasing companies and airlines.” The move came amid reports that British reinsurance giant Lloyd’s of London is considering suspending war insurance provisions for carriers flying into or over Ukraine.

Urging calm

As the transport ministry made its announcement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy downplayed reports of an imminent invasion, and complained of media reports stoking panic.

Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian leaders have been trying to talk down the prospects of an all-out war because of the damaging effect it is having on the country’s economy and are worried about the impact on public morale.

While trying to calm fears, his government has called formally for a meeting with Russia and other members of a European security group over the military buildup. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Russia has so far ignored requests to explain the deployment. Ukraine made a request for an explanation via the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE. Russia “must fulfill its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all,” Kuleba said.

On Sunday, President Zelenskiy spoke for nearly an hour by phone with U.S. President Joe Biden. The White House said President Biden reiterated U.S. support for Ukraine, and that both leaders had agreed on “the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence.”

In the latest attempt to find a diplomatic solution, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was scheduled to hold meetings with President Zelenskiy in Kyiv later Monday, and with President Putin in Moscow on Tuesday. The chancellor has warned of severe economic consequences for Russia should it launch any invasion, echoing statements by other Western leaders.
…

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been going on for a long time and has many fronts, not just military. The religious schism between the Moscow and Kyiv Patriarchates of the Orthodox Church, and the struggle over the use of the Russian or Ukrainian language are two important battlegrounds in this conflict. Jon Spier narrates this report by Ricardo Marquina in Kyiv.
…

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is hosting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks Monday in Kyiv as Western leaders express solidarity with Ukraine amid fears of a Russian invasion.

Scholz told reporters Sunday that Russia’s buildup of troops along the border with Ukraine is a “very, very serious threat,” and that his Monday visit to Kyiv and a Tuesday stop in Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin are about finding “a way to ensure peace in Europe.”

Ukraine on Sunday requested that Russia and the other members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe take part in a meeting within two days to discuss the Russian troop movements.

“If Russia is serious when it talks about the indivisibility of security in the OSCE space, it must fulfill its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted.

The U.S. mission to the USCE expressed its support, saying in its own message, “The time for transparency is now.”

Russia has denied its plans to invade Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden assured Zelenskiy in a phone call Sunday of the U.S. commitment to “Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The White House said in a statement that Biden “made clear [to Zelenskiy] that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively, together with its allies and partners, to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

Biden has ruled out sending U.S. troops to fight alongside Ukrainians in the event of a Russian invasion, while vowing to impose “swift and severe” economic sanctions. 

The White House said Biden and Zelenskiy “agreed on the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence” to a Moscow invasion, although Western diplomatic overtures to Putin have so far failed to end the stalemate. 

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, told CNN’s “State of the Union” show that the U.S. cannot predict whether Russia might invade this week or after the Beijing Olympics end in a week, but that there is “a distinct possibility there will be a major military action.” 

While the U.S. has warned for several months of the threat of a Russian attack, Sullivan said “in the last few days” Moscow has accelerated its military buildup. 

Biden, in an hour-long call Saturday with Putin, warned the Russian leader that invading Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering.” Biden said the United States and its allies remained committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but were “equally prepared for other scenarios.”

Russia said Biden continued to fail to address Moscow’s main security concerns, including ruling out Ukraine’s possible membership in the 30-country NATO military alliance. 

The Western allies have called the idea of Russian veto power over NATO membership a nonstarter, but said they are willing to negotiate other security issues, such as positioning of missiles in NATO counties closest to Russia and NATO troop training exercises. 

Russia’s military has more than 130,000 troops to the north of Ukraine in Russian ally Belarus and along Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia, while also positioning warships to the south in the Black Sea along the Crimean Peninsula that Russia unilaterally annexed from Ukraine in 2014. 

“I’m not handicapping what will happen,” Sullivan said, but added that the U.S. and its allies would impose a “significant strategic [economic] loss” on Russia if it attacks Ukraine.  

While ruling out sending the U.S. military to fight in Ukraine, Biden sent 5,000 U.S. troops to NATO countries in eastern European countries closest to Russia to help bolster their fighting forces.  

The U.S. has urged all Americans living in Ukraine to leave immediately, and the Defense Department has pulled out 160 military advisers who had been assisting the Ukrainian government.  

Sullivan said the U.S. believes a Russian attack could start with a barrage of missiles and aerial bombings followed by a ground invasion.  

“Civilians could be killed regardless of their nationality,” he said. 

Numerous countries have ordered their diplomatic personnel to leave Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, while some are keeping smaller contingents in consulates in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, near the Polish border. 

Several international airlines have stopped flying into Ukraine because of the impending threat of warfare, although Ukraine said it has not closed its airspace. 

Dutch airline KLM said Saturday that it has canceled flights to Ukraine until further notice. 

Dutch worries about the potential danger in Ukrainian airspace are high in the wake of the 2014 shootdown of a Malaysian airliner over an area of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed rebels. All 298 people aboard were killed, including 198 Dutch citizens. 

The Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp said Sunday that its flight from Madeira, Portugal, to Kyiv was diverted to the Moldovan capital, Chisinau, after the Irish leasing company that owns the plane said it was banning flights in Ukrainian airspace. 

Some material in this report came from the Associated Press and Reuters.  
…

BEIJING — Asian stock markets fell Monday and oil prices rose amid concern about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Tokyo’s benchmark index fell by an unusually wide daily margin of 2.6%. Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul also retreated. 

On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 index tumbled 1.9% on Friday after the White House encouraged Americans to leave Ukraine within 48 hours. Other governments including Russia were pulling diplomats and their citizens out of the country. 

Russia is one of the biggest oil producers. Any military action that disrupts supplies could send shockwaves through global energy markets and industry.

“Markets are belatedly waking up to the geopolitical risks posed by Russian military action against Ukraine,” said Rabobank in a report.

The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo fell 2.6% to 26,970.34 and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1% to 24,665.17. The Kospi in Seoul retreated 1.6% to 2,703.06.

The Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.4% to 3,448.46 while Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 gained 0.6% to 7,257.70. New Zealand and Jakarta declined while Singapore was unchanged.

Investors already were on edge about Federal Reserve plans to wind down economic stimulus to cool inflation that is at a four-decade high and about how quickly Europe and other central banks would follow. 

On Friday, the S&P 500 declined to 4,418.64 for its fourth weekly loss in the past six weeks after President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the threat of a Russian attack is “immediately enough” that Americans should leave Ukraine.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.4% to 34,738.06. The Nasdaq composite dropped 2.8% to 13,791.15.

Investors moved money into Treasury bonds, gold and other assets seen as safe havens.

The market price of a 10-year Treasury rose, pushing down its yield, or the difference between the day’s price and the payout if held to maturity, to 1.91% from Thursday’s 2.03%.

Treasury prices had been falling on expectations the Fed will raise interest rates as many as seven times this year. If the Fed succeeds in cooling inflation, that would increase the buying power of the payout from bonds, making them a more attractive investment.

In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude rose $1.52 to $94.62 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added $3.22 on Friday to $93.10. Brent crude, the price basis for international oils, advanced $1.36 to $95.80 per barrel in London. It gained $3.03 the previous session to $94.44.

The dollar gained to 115.50 yen from Friday’s 115.27 yen. The euro advanced to $1.1349 from $1.1334. 
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