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India Establishes Job Quotas for Poor Upper Caste Members

India’s Parliament on Wednesday approved a bill providing a 10 percent quota in government jobs for the poor members of upper castes who have been excluded from existing quotas for low-ranking castes.

The Congress party and other opposition parties supported the legislation, but criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government for getting it approved just months before the national elections, in an effort the opposition claimed was aimed at winning votes.

The Modi government surprised the opposition by unexpectedly moving the bill in the lower house of Parliament on Tuesday and getting it approved. The upper house adopted it by sitting late into night on Wednesday during the final day of the current parliamentary session. The bill now only needs the approval of India’s president, a formality, to become law.

Discrimination under the caste system was outlawed soon after India’s independence from Britain in 1947. But the system’s influence remains strong and the government has sought to redress discrimination against those on the lower rungs by setting up quotas for government jobs and university spots.

Until now, 49.5 percent of government jobs and places in state-funded educational institutions were allocated to the lower castes.

The economically poor among higher castes have been clamoring for a similar quota to improve the quality of their lives.

Modi on Wednesday hailed the passage of the bill in Parliament in a tweet as a way for younger, economically disadvantaged Indians from higher castes “to showcase their prowess and contribute toward India’s transformation.”

Opposition lawmakers, including D. Raja of the Communist Party of India and Satish Mishra of the Bahujan Samaj Party, a party representing the lower castes, said the government provided the job quota to upper caste Indians to save embarrassment from its failure to create 2 millions jobs every year as promised after coming to power in 2014.

“Job quotas are being provided as a substitute for jobs,” said Ashish Nandy, a well-known political commentator.

The new law will face a test in India’s Supreme Court, which has put a 50 per cent cap on job quotas in the country based on social and educational backwardness.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the job quota for upper castes would not be affected by any court restrictions because it was introduced because of an economic need.

Critics have said the lower castes should be strengthened through education rather than quotas because many jobs and university spots that have been reserved for them remain empty.

 

China Says Trade Talks are Making Progress

China’s Commerce Ministry says that the United States and Beijing made progress in discussions about structural issues such as forced technology transfers and intellectual property rights during trade talks this week. But the lack of details from both sides following the meetings highlights the uncertainty that remains, analysts say.

The talks, which were originally scheduled to wrap up on Tuesday stretched to the evening and into Wednesday.

 

U.S. officials have said the talks are going well, a point Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng echoed on Thursday at a regular briefing.

 

“The length of the meetings shows that both sides were serious and sincere about the talks,” he said. “Structural issues were an important part of this round of talks and there has been progress in these areas.”

 

Gao did not comment, however, on whether he was confident that the talks could be wrapped up in the 90-day period laid out by President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.

 

Also, he did not say when the next round of talks might be held or who might attend, only that discussions between the two sides continue.

 

In early December, Washington and Beijing agreed to hold off on raising tariffs and to try and reach a deal before the beginning of March. Structural issues and concerns about barriers to investment in China are seen as some of the biggest obstacles to the deal.

 

On Wednesday, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders told the U.S cable news Fox Business Network that the administration is expecting something to come out of the talks.

“We are moving towards a more balanced and reciprocal trade agreement with China,” she said, adding that no one knows yet what that agreement will look like or when it will be ready.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office gave only a few details about the talks in Beijing, noting in a statement that the discussions “focused on China’s pledge to purchase a substantial amount of agricultural, energy, manufactured goods, and other products and services from the United States.”

At the briefing, Gao did not provide any details about what further purchases China might make.

Darson Chiu, an economist and research fellow at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, said the pledges China made looked similar to those it had offered earlier last year. He said it was hard to be optimistic about this first round of talks.

“It looks like short-term compromises have been made, but it remains to be seen if both superpowers are able to resolve their [structural] conflicts,” Chiu said.

 

He said that if more compromises are made when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He meets U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, an official who is viewed as being more hawkish on trade with China, the crisis will only be halfway averted.

 

“I don’t think the U.S. will easily remove tariffs that have been imposed on Chinese goods. This is what China has wished for, but I think the U.S. will wait and see,” Chiu said.

 

Issues such as intellectual property enforcement are very difficult and complex, notes Xu Chenggang, a professor of economics at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business. China can say it will do more, but it already has laws for intellectual property protection.

 

“Really here the key is the reality,” Xu said. “It’s the enforcement of the law and the enforcement of the law is an institutional issue,” which depends on the independence of China’s judiciary system.

 

Washington has given Beijing a long list of changes that it would like to see from intellectual property rights protection enforcement to industrial subsidies and other non-tariff barriers.

The United States has said that any deal with China must be followed up with ongoing verification and enforcement.

If the two sides are unable to reach a deal by March, President Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25 percent and to possibly levy additional tariffs that would extend to all imports from China.

Joyce Huang contributed to this report.

Next Steps Unclear in US-China Trade Talks

The United States says talks in Beijing on ending a bruising trade war focused on Chinese promises to buy more American goods. But it gave no indication of progress on resolving disputes over Beijing’s technology ambitions and other thorny issues.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said Thursday the two sides would “maintain close contact.” But neither side gave any indication of the next step during their 90-day cease-fire in a tariff fight that threatens to chill global economic growth.

That uncertainty left Asian stock markets mixed Thursday. Share prices had risen Wednesday after President Donald Trump fueled optimism on Twitter about possible progress.

The U.S. Trade Representative, which leads the American side of the talks, said negotiators focused on China’s pledge to buy a “substantial amount” of agricultural, energy, manufactured goods and other products and services.

No signs of progress

However, the USTR statement emphasized American insistence on “structural changes” in Chinese technology policy, market access, protection of foreign patents and copyrights and cybertheft of trade secrets. It gave no sign of progress in those areas. 

Trump hiked tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods over complaints Beijing steals or pressures companies to hand over technology. 

Washington also wants changes in an array of areas including the ruling Communist Party’s initiatives for government-led creation of global competitors in robotics, artificial intelligence and other industries.

American leaders worry those plans might erode U.S. industrial leadership, but Chinese leaders see them as a path to prosperity and global influence and are reluctant to abandon them.

The two sides might be moving toward a “narrow agreement,” but “U.S. trade hawks” want to “limit the scope of that agreement and keep the pressure up on Beijing,” said Eurasia Group analysts of Michael Hirson, Jeffrey Wright and Paul Triolo in a report.

“The risk of talks breaking down remains significant,” they wrote.

​White House optimism

On Wednesday, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders expressed optimism to Fox Business Network. She said the timing was unclear but the two sides “are moving towards a more balanced and reciprocal trade agreement with China.”

The U.S. statement said negotiations dealt with the need for “ongoing verification and effective enforcement.” That reflects American frustration that the Chinese have failed to live up to past commitments.

Beijing has tried to defuse pressure from Washington and other trading partners over industrial policy promising to buy more imports and open its industries wider to foreign competitors.

Trump has complained repeatedly about the U.S. trade deficit with China, which last year likely exceeded the 2017 gap of $336 billion.

​Enthusiasm wears thin

U.S. stocks surged Wednesday on optimism higher-level U.S. and Chinese officials might meet.

That enthusiasm was wearing thin Thursday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.5 percent while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.4 percent.

Economists say the 90-day window is too short to resolve all the conflicts between the biggest and second-biggest global economies.

“We can confidently say that enough progress was made that the discussions will continue at a higher level,” said Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council. “That is very positive.”

Chinese exports to the U.S. have held up despite tariff increases, partly because of exporters rushing to fill orders before more increases hit. Forecasters expect American orders to slump this year.

China has imposed penalties on $110 billion of American goods, slowing customs clearance for U.S. companies and suspending issuing licenses in finance and other businesses.

U.S. companies also want action on Chinese policies they complain improperly favor local companies. Those include subsidies and other favors for high-tech and state-owned industry, rules on technology licensing and preferential treatment of domestic suppliers in government procurement.

For its part, Beijing is unhappy with U.S. export and investment curbs, such as controls on “dual use” technology with possible military applications. They say China’s companies are treated unfairly in national security reviews of proposed corporate acquisitions, though almost all deals are approved unchanged.

This week’s talks went ahead despite tension over the arrest of a Chinese tech executive in Canada on U.S. charges related to possible violations of trade sanctions against Iran. 

Britain Will no Longer be Bound by EU Sanctions After Brexit

With the March deadline approaching for Britain to depart the European Union, there are concerns that Britain’s exit could undermine Western sanctions against countries like Iran, Syria and North Korea. Analysts note that Britain has been influential in persuading the EU to take action, saying there are risks Britain will seek a different path as it carves out new economic and strategic partnerships.

“Some estimates hold that up to 80 percent of the EU’s sanctions that are in place have been put forward or suggested by the UK,” said Erica Moret, chair of the Geneva International Sanctions Network.

She says Britain’s future absence from EU meetings will impact the bloc’s future relations. “The UK is also a very important player of course as a leading economic and political power, a soft power player in the world. Also the City of London means that financial sanctions are rendered much stronger through the UK’s participation.”

Britain was quick to coordinate expulsions of Russian diplomats among EU allies following the nerve agent attack in the city of Salisbury last year against a former double agent, an incident London blamed on Moscow.

Through EU membership, Britain enforces common sanctions against several other states and individuals, such as Syrian officials accused of war crimes.

After the Brexit deadline day on March 29, Britain will be free to implement its own sanctions.

“I wouldn’t see this happening in the short term, especially because again both sides have said they are committed to EU sanctions and they are also committed to projecting some political values that both EU and UK agree to,” says Anna Nadibaidze of the policy group Open Europe.

Britain, however, could seek a competitive advantage over Europe by diverging its sanctions policy, says Moret.

“It’s very unlikely that the UK would deliberately seek to gain commercial advantage over EU partners. But when you think about the tensions that will come into play post-Brexit, when it comes down to trying to negotiate new trade deals, seeking new foreign investment into the country. There will be pressure, a balance to be made between alignment with EU sanctions and domestic interests.”

That pressure could be felt first over Iran. Alongside European allies, Britain backs the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, which lifted some Western sanctions on Tehran in return for a suspension of its atomic enrichment program. U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal last year, saying Iran has violated the spirit of the agreement.

Britain urgently wants a trade deal with the United States after Brexit. Will the price be alignment with Washington’s policy on Iran?

“That is a key risk and it’s a very important one that will be in the forefront of policymakers’ minds,” adds Moret.

Britain was among EU nations backing sanctions against an Iranian intelligence unit this week, accusing Tehran of plotting attacks and assassinations in Europe. Both Brussels and London say they will continue to work together to counter common threats through a range of policy tools including sanctions.

 

 

 

 

EU Trade Chief: US Talks Will Not Include Agriculture

The European Union and United States have not yet agreed on the scope of trade negotiations, but the bloc will not include agriculture in the talks, its trade commissioner said on Wednesday.

Cecilia Malmström told reporters the EU was willing to include all industrial goods, such as autos, in the discussions.

“We have made very clear agriculture will not be included,” she said, though the two sides had not yet agreed on that issue.

She was speaking after meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and ahead of a meeting with U.S. and Japanese leaders to discuss World Trade Organization (WTO) reform this week.

U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded better terms of trade for the United States from China, the EU and Japan, saying poor trade deals cost the United States millions of jobs.

Washington has already reworked the North American trade treaty with neighbors Mexico and Canada.

USTR notified lawmakers in October of its plans to pursue the trade talks with the European Union. American farmers and farm state lawmakers such as Republican Senator Chuck Grassley from Iowa have said they want agricultural products to be included in any new trade deal.

Malmström said she had received no assurance that a U.S. auto tariffs report would be put on hold during the discussions, but believed the European bloc would not be affected by such tariffs while the talks were ongoing.

The EU was in the final stages of preparing its negotiating mandates for the talks, she said.

The European Commission executive said it was preparing two mandates — one to cover removal of tariffs on industrial goods and another on areas of possible regulatory cooperation in areas such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices and cyber security.

The mandates would first need to be cleared by the commissioners before being presented to the EU’s 28 member countries for approval.

It was unclear how long this process would take place and when formal talks could be held. Experts from both sides will conduct discussions about technical matters this week.

Discussions around the reform of WTO rules have focused on transparency and ways to address concerns over Chinese trade practices. “We are not forming a coalition against China. We are worried about many of the Chinese practices,” she said.

Will Post-Brexit Britain Affect EU Sanctions Against Iran, Others?

Concerns have arisen that European sanctions against countries like Iran, Syria and North Korea could be undermined by Britain’s upcoming departure from the European Union. Britain will be free to implement its own sanctions regime — and while both Brussels and London insist they will continue to work together, analysts say there are risks that Britain will seek a different path as it carves out new economic and strategic partnerships after Brexit. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.

World Bank Cuts Forecast for World Economic Growth in 2019

The World Bank is downgrading its outlook for the global economy this year, citing rising trade tension, weakening manufacturing activity and growing financial stress in emerging-market countries.

In a report titled “Darkening Skies,” the anti-poverty agency said Tuesday that it expects the world economy to grow 2.9 percent in 2019, down from the 3 percent it forecast back in June. It would be the second straight year of slowing growth: The global economy expanded 3 percent last year and 3.1 percent in 2017.

‘Risks are rising’

“Global growth is slowing, and the risks are rising,” Ayhan Kose, the World Bank economist who oversees forecasts, said in an interview. “In 2017, the global economy was pretty much firing on all cylinders. In 2018, the engines started sputtering.”

The bank left its forecast for the U.S. economy unchanged at 2.5 percent this year, down from 2.9 percent in 2018. It predicts 1.6 percent growth for the 19 countries that use the euro currency, down from 1.9 percent last year; and 6.2 percent growth for China, the world’s second-biggest economy, versus 6.5 percent in 2018.

The bank upgraded expectations for the Japanese economy, lifting its growth forecast to 0.9 percent, up from 0.8 percent in 2018.

President Donald Trump, declaring that years of U.S. support for free trade had cost America jobs, last year slapped import taxes on foreign dishwashers, solar panels, steel, aluminum and $250 billion in Chinese products. Other countries retaliated with tariffs of their own in disputes that have yet to be resolved.

The exchange of tariffs is taking a toll on world trade. The bank predicts that the growth of world trade will slow to 3.6 percent this year from 3.8 percent in 2018 and 5.4 percent in 2017. Slowing trade is hurting manufacturers around the world.

Rising interest rates

Rising interest rates are also pinching emerging-market governments and companies that borrowed heavily when rates were ultra-low in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 Great Recession. As the debts roll over, those borrowers have to refinance at higher rates. A rising dollar is also making things harder for emerging-market borrowers who took out loans denominated in the U.S. currency.

“Now debt service is eating into government revenues, making it more difficult (for governments) to fund essential social services,” said World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva, who will replace bank president Jim Yong Kim on an interim basis when he leaves at the end of January.

The bank slashed its forecast for 2019 growth for Turkey, Argentina, Iran and Pakistan, among others.

Peru AG Resigns After Outcry Over Odebrecht Probe

Peru Attorney General Pedro Chavarry resigned on Tuesday after a public outcry over his handling of the high-profile corruption investigation involving Brazilian builder Odebrecht.

His departure from the public prosecutors office marks a fresh victory for President Martin Vizcarra and supporters of his measures to uproot entrenched corruption in one of Latin America’s fastest-growing economies.

Chavarry prompted widespread scorn and days of street protests after he announced on New Year’s Eve that he was removing two lead prosecutors from the Odebrecht inquiry, which has targeted former presidents and presidential candidates.

Vizcarra responded by sending Congress legislation to suspend Chavarry and overhaul the prosecutor’s office.

Resignation protects prosecutor?

Chavarry denied he was trying to meddle in the investigation and said he was stepping down to protect the independence of the prosecutor’s office, which he portrayed in his resignation letter as under attack by Vizcarra’s government.

Vizcarra had repeatedly called for Chavarry to step down since he was appointed by a panel of prosecutors in July despite his ties to an alleged criminal group of judges, lawmakers and businessmen. Chavarry was later named by a prosecutor in his office as a suspect in the probe. He denies wrongdoing.

A former vice president, Vizcarra has made fighting corruption a focus of his government since taking office last year to replace Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who stepped down in one of several graft scandals to grip Peru in recent years.

Vizcarra, however, lacked the authority to dismiss Chavarry. Under Peru’s constitution, only Congress, where Chavarry enjoyed support with the opposition majority, can oust the attorney general.

Avalos is acting attorney general

Supreme Prosecutor Zoraida Avalos, one of several prominent prosecutors to call for Chavarry to resign in the past week, was named as acting attorney general on Tuesday.

The prosecutors whom Chavarry had dismissed last week — Rafael Vela and Jose Domingo Perez — were reinstated amid the outcry.

The two are seen as pivotal figures in the Odebrecht investigation and recently drew up a plea deal that commits the company to providing evidence on about $30 million in bribes it acknowledges it paid to local politicians.

‘Car Wash’ probe

Odebrecht is at the center of the “Car Wash” investigation in Brazil, which has rippled across Latin America and which U.S. prosecutors have said is the biggest political graft scheme ever uncovered.

In late 2016, Odebrecht acknowledged it had paid millions of dollars in bribes to officials in a dozen countries to secure public works contracts dating back over a decade. The company has committed to paying billions of dollars in fines.

Activists Warn of Gaps as EU Lifts Ban Threat on Thai Fishing Industry

Labor rights campaigners warned against complacency as the European Union on Tuesday withdrew its threat to ban Thai fishing imports into the bloc, saying that the country has made progress in tackling illegal and unregulated fishing.

The EU’s so-called “yellow card” on Thai fishing exports has been in place since April 2015 as a warning that the country was not sufficiently addressing the issues.

“Illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing damages global fish stocks, but it also hurts the people living from the sea, especially those already vulnerable to poverty,” Karmenu Vella, European Commissioner for environment and fisheries said.

“Today’s decision reverses the first step of a process that could have led to a complete import ban of marine fisheries products into the EU,” he said in a statement.

Thailand has amended its fisheries legal framework in line with international law, and improved its monitoring and surveillance systems, including remote monitoring of fishing activities and more robust inspections at port, the EU said.

The country’s multibillion-dollar seafood industry has also come under scrutiny for slavery, trafficking and violence on fishing boats and at onshore processing facilities.

After the EU threatened to ban fish exports, and the U.S. State Department said it was failing to tackle human trafficking, the Southeast Asian country toughened up its laws and increased fines for violations.

Thailand has introduced modern technologies — from satellites to optical scanning and electronic payment services — to crack down on abuses.

But the International Labor Organization said in March that fishermen remained at risk of forced labor, and the wages of some continued to be withheld.

The EU on Tuesday said it recognized efforts by Thailand to tackle human trafficking and to improve labor conditions in the fishing sector.

Thailand voted in December to ratify ILO convention 188 — which sets standards of decent work in the fishing industry — becoming the first Asian country to do so.

But important gaps remain, said Steve Trent, executive director at advocacy group Environmental Justice Foundation.

“We still have concerns about the workers. We need to see that the reforms are durable,” he said.

Thailand is yet to ratify two other ILO conventions on the right to organize and the right to collective bargaining, both of which are essential to protect workers, he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

This is particularly important in the fishing and seafood processing industries, as most of their estimated 600,000 workers are migrant workers.

“There is a risk that with the lifting of the yellow card, complacency will set in. We need to see a culture of compliance, and more being done to protect vulnerable workers in the industry,” Trent said.

US Delegation Arrives in Beijing for Trade Talks

A U.S. trade delegation has arrived in Beijing.

The group is in China to hold two days of talks, beginning Monday, focusing on how best to carry out an agreement reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to postpone new tariff hikes.

On December 1, the two leaders agreed to complete talks about technology, intellectual property and cyber theft issues within 90 days, and hold off on new tariffs in the meantime.

U.S. officials have said that if the talks fail to produce a satisfactory agreement Washington will increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent.

 

 

 

Surge in US Job Creation, Fed Reassurance Boosts Stocks

A surge in U.S. job creation and some reassuring words from the head of the U.S. central bank sent U.S. stocks soaring Friday.  

The Labor Department reported a net gain of 312,000 jobs in December, far more than economists predicted. The unemployment rate, however, rose slightly, to 3.9 percent.

Many analysts said the rising unemployment rate was probably good news because rising wages prompted many jobless people to start looking for work.

People are not counted as officially unemployed unless they have searched for work in the past four weeks. In December, the labor force expanded by a healthy 419,000 people as wages rose 3.2 percent over the past year.

PNC Bank Chief Economist Gus Faucher said the data meant worries about a possible recession were probably “overblown.” Worried investors have sent stocks mostly downward in recent months in a series of drastic gains and losses driven in part by concern that the U.S. central bank might raise interest rates too quickly and choke off growth.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that Fed officials were “listening carefully” to markets that were weighing the impact of “concerns on global growth and trade negotiations.”

Dec Mullarkey of Sun Life Investment Management wrote that “markets were reassured” because the Fed made it clear it was not on course to automatically raise rates and would “dynamically adjust as new data and trends emerge.”

By the close of trading, the Dow advanced more than 700 points, as the major U.S. indexes rose more than three percent.  

Marriott Cuts Estimate on Size of Massive Starwood Hack

Marriott International Inc said Friday that fewer than 383 million customer records were stolen in a massive cyberattack disclosed last month, down from its initial estimate that up to 500 million guests were affected.

The hotel operator also said that some 25.55 million passport numbers were stolen in the attack on the Starwood Hotels reservation system, 5.25 million of which were stored in plain text. Another 8.6 million encrypted payment cards were also taken in the attack, it said.

Marriott previously confirmed that passport numbers and payment cards were taken, but not said how many.

The company disclosed on Nov. 30 that it had discovered its Starwood hotels reservation database had been hacked over a four-year period in one of the largest breaches in history.

At least five U.S. states and the UK’s Information Commissioner’s Office are investigating the attack.

Marriott also said that it had completed an effort to phase out the Starwood reservations database that it acquired in September 2016 with its $13.6 billion purchase of Starwood. The hack began in 2014, a year before Marriott offered to buy Starwood.

US Dragnet Closes Around Group Accused of $2B ‘Secret’ Loans in Mozambique

It sounds like a Hollywood caper: A group of investors and officials convince European banks to loan a total of $2 billion to a resource-rich African nation trying to rebuild after a bruising civil war.  

The money promptly disappears, and then this caper turns tragic.  The government doesn’t learn of the loans until three years after they happen. It defaults on the loans, and that triggers an economic crisis: the currency tumbles, prices rise, hospitals run out of basic supplies and key roads go unrepaired.  Thousands of people contract cholera – an easily preventable and treatable illness that is often caused by a breakdown of health services.

This isn’t Hollywood. This, allegedly, is Mozambique, according to an indictment that has resulted in the arrests of at least four figures in recent days, including a former finance minister.  The men are now awaiting extradition to the U.S. for their role in defrauding U.S. investors when seeking the loans.

VOA obtained a redacted copy of the indictment, issued by the U.S. District Court’s Eastern District of New York.  It accuses the four, plus another man who has not been arrested and two others who were not named, of “creat(ing) the maritime projects as fronts to raise money to enrich themselves and intentionally divert(ing) portions of the loan proceeds to pay at least $200 million in bribes and kickbacks to themselves, Mozambican government officials and others.”

Last week, South African officials arrested Mozambique’s former finance minister, Manuel Chang, on an Interpol warrant as he transited through the country.  

This, says analyst Alex Vines of the Chatham House think tank, is a very big deal. This matter has been investigated by both an independent firm and also by the British government, and until now, nothing has come of it.

“So it looked as if nothing would happen about these many millions, probably billions, of U.S. dollars that were (un)accounted for,” Vines told VOA. “So the indictment that has occurred from the U.S. District Court, Eastern District of New York, for key characters involved in this loan scandal, is very very significant and is a game-changer, I think.”

The reaction: Public vs Party?

That’s certainly the case in Mozambique, where commentator Fernando Lima notes the public has largely applauded the arrests, while the ruling Frelimo party has been silent.

“There is a sentiment of huge enthusiasm and joy, which causes a lot of irritation on the other side, meaning people related to the Frelimo party,” he told VOA  “…It caused this huge, huge embarrassment for the current government. And up to now, which is also very, very surprising, no Mozambican authorities have said anything related to the arrest of Mr. Chang. Neither the government, neither Frelimo party, neither the attorney general’s office, or our parliament.”

Vines says it’s unclear how President Filipe Nyusi – who was defense minister at the time of the secret loans – will come out of this scandal, but he says there may be a bright side for investors who are eager to put money into the nation, which will start exporting natural gas in 2023.

“The International Monetary Fund, IMF, and bilateral donors to Mozambique had suspended lending to Mozambique, or direct government lending, should I say,” he said. “They do want to move on, and so again, I think this might help clear things up so that longer term, the relationship of Mozambique with some of its international creditors and international partners can be improved.”

Rudi Krause, the South African lawyer representing the former finance minister, Manuel Chang, says they’ll fight the U.S. extradition request.

Krause said attorneys had not been given a full copy of the indictment by South African officials at the time of Chang’s arrest and so could not comment on the allegations.

VOA was unable to reach Krause after receiving the U.S. copy of the indictment, for further comment.

Chang will appear in a South African court on January 8. But the court of public opinion will also have its chance to weigh in, when Mozambique goes to the polls in October.

 

 

Asian, European Stocks Rebound Ahead of US-China Trade Talks

Asian markets rebounded Friday on hopes that upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China will calm a trade dispute that has rattled global markets.

After a global sell-off triggered by Apple’s warning of lower revenues, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 2.2 percent to 25, 626.03 and the Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.1 percent to 2, 514.87. The Nikkei 225 Index, however, fell 2.3 percent to close at 19,561.40.

European shares also recouped earlier losses, with Germany’s DAX Performance Index and France’s CAC 40 Index closing nearly 1 percent higher.

Stock markets across the globe dropped Thursday after tech giant Apple said sales of its devices had fallen sharply in China last month, perhaps signaling a broader slowing in the world economy.

Apple has blamed U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade dispute with China for its shrinking outlook, but the U.S. leader tweeted his defense Thursday, claiming,  “The United States Treasury has taken in MANY billions of dollars from the Tariffs we are charging China and other countries that have not treated us fairly. In the meantime we are doing well in various Trade Negotiations currently going on. At some point this had to be done!” 

Friday China’s government said a U.S. trade delegation will visit Beijing next week for two days of talks on carrying out an agreement reached by Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to postpone new tariff hikes.

On December 1 the two leaders agreed to complete talks about technology, intellectual property and cyber theft issues within 90 days, and hold off on new tariffs in the meantime.  U.S. officials have said that if the talks fail to produce a satisfactory agreement Washington will increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent.

Apple chief executive Tim Cook blamed the company’s sales shortfall on the trade battle President Donald Trump is waging against China.

“While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China,” Cook wrote.

Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said the contentious U.S.-China relations will force other U.S. companies to cut their sales estimates in China.

“It’s not going to be just Apple,” Hassett told CNN. “There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have sales in China that are going to be watching their earnings being downgraded next year until we get a deal with China.”

He said slowing consumer demand in China gives Trump an edge in ongoing trade negotiations.

“That puts a lot of pressure on China to make a deal,” he said. “If we have a successful negotiation with China then Apple’s sales and everybody else’s sales will recover.”

The U.S. economy remains strong, with the country’s 3.7 percent jobless rate at a nearly five-decade low. But economists say the U.S. economy could be slowing and uncertainty in global economic fortunes has led to volatile daily swings in stock indexes in recent weeks.

In 2018, U.S. stock indexes suffered their worst year in a decade, with most of the losses recorded in December. The Dow was off 5.6 percent for the year, with the broader Standard & Poor’s index of 500 stocks down 6.2 percent.

 

Ex-Credit Suisse Bankers Arrested on US Charges over Mozambique Loans

Three former Credit Suisse Group AG bankers were arrested in London on Thursday on U.S. charges that they took part in a $2 billion fraud scheme involving state-owned companies in Mozambique, a spokesman for U.S. prosecutors said.

Andrew Pearse, Surjan Singh and Detelina Subeva were charged in an indictment in Brooklyn, New York federal court with conspiring to violate U.S. anti-bribery law and to commit money laundering and securities fraud, according to spokesman John Marzulli. They have been released on bail.

The arrests came five days after former Mozambique finance minister Manuel Chang was arrested in South Africa as part of the same criminal case, which was brought by federal prosecutors in Brooklyn.

The prosecutors will seek to have all of the defendants extradited to the United States, according to Marzulli. Lawyers for the defendants could not immediately be reached for comment after business hours in New York and London.

“The indictment alleges that the former employees worked to defeat the bank’s internal controls, acted out of a motive of personal profit, and sought to hide these activities from the bank,” Credit Suisse said in a statement. It added that the bank will continue to cooperate with authorities.

Chang oversaw Mozambique’s finances when it failed to disclose government guarantees for $2 billion in international borrowing by state-owned firms. The disclosure of those loans in 2016 plunged the southern African country into a suffocating debt crisis it is still struggling to climb out of two years later.

 

 

Global Stocks Fall After Apple Trims Sales Forecast

Stock markets around the globe dropped Thursday after tech giant Apple said that sales of its devices had fallen sharply in China last month, perhaps signaling a broader slowing in the world economy.

The widely watched Dow Jones industrial average of 30 prominent U.S. stocks plunged 2.8 percent — more than 660 points — by the close of trading, after stock indexes in Europe and Asia closed with smaller losses. Apple’s stock was down nearly 9 percent.

The stock declines came after Apple announced late Wednesday that its holiday sales were lower than it had expected, especially in China, the world’s second-biggest economy after the United States. In addition, a key gauge of U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly hit a two-year low in December, indicating weak demand and exports.

Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook blamed the company’s sales shortfall on the trade battle President Donald Trump is waging against China. 

“While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in greater China,” Cook wrote. “In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad.” 

​More to come

Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said the contentious U.S.-China relations would force other U.S. companies to cut their sales estimates in China. 

“It’s not going to be just Apple,” Hassett told CNN. “There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have sales in China that are going to be watching their earnings being downgraded next year until we get a deal with China.”

He said slowing consumer demand in China would give Trump an edge in trade negotiations. 

 

“That puts a lot of pressure on China to make a deal,” he said. “If we have a successful negotiation with China, then Apple’s sales and everybody else’s sales will recover.”

The U.S. economy remains strong, with the country’s 3.7 percent jobless rate at a nearly five-decade low. But economists say the U.S. economy could be slowing, and uncertainty in global economic fortunes has led to volatile daily swings in stock indexes in recent weeks.

In 2018, U.S. stock indexes suffered their worst year in a decade, with most of the losses recorded in December. The Dow was off 5.6 percent for the year, with the broader Standard & Poor’s index of 500 stocks down 6.2 percent.

Judge Blocks NYC Law Demanding Airbnb Disclosures

A federal judge says a New York City law forcing Airbnb and HomeAway home-sharing platforms to reveal detailed information about its business seems unconstitutional.

Judge Paul Engelmayer on Thursday blocked the law from taking effect on Feb. 2, finding there’s a greater than 50 percent chance the companies would prevail on claims that the law violates the Fourth Amendment right to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures.

The ruling comes at an early stage of the litigation. Lawyers for the city and the companies will gather additional evidence before Engelmayer makes a final ruling.

The city did not immediately comment.

The San Francisco-based Airbnb in a statement called the ruling a “huge win.”

The law was passed last summer.

 

Chewing the Fat with Pakistan’s BBQ Masters

The sweet aroma of mutton smoke drifts through a maze of crumbling alleyways, a barbecue tang that for decades has lured meat-eaters from across Pakistan to the frontier city of Peshawar.

The ancient city, capital of northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, has retained its reputation for some of Pakistan’s tastiest cuisine despite bearing the brunt of the country’s bloody war with militancy.

University student Mohammad Fahad had long heard tales of Peshawar’s famed mutton.

“Earlier we heard of Peshawar being a dangerous place,” he told AFP — but security has improved in recent years, and he finally made the hours-long journey from the eastern city of Lahore to see if it could live up to the hype.

“We are here just to see what the secret to this barbecue is,” he says, excitedly awaiting his aromatic portion in Namak Mandi — “Salt Market” — located in the heart of Peshawar.

The hearty cuisine comes from generations-old recipes emanating from the nearby Pashtun tribal lands along the border with Afghanistan.

It is feted for its simplicity compared with the intricate curries and spicy dishes from Pakistan’s eastern plains and southern coast.

“Its popularity is owed to the fact that it is mainly meat-based and that always goes down well across the country,” says Pakistani cookbook author Sumayya Usmani.

The famed Nisar Charsi (hashish smoker) Tikka — named after its owner’s renowned habit — in Namak Mandi chalks up its decades of success to using very little in the way of spices.

For its barbecue offerings, tikkas — cuts of meat — are generously salted and sandwiched on skewers between cubes of fat for tenderness and taste, and slow-cooked over a wood fire.

Its other famed dish, karahi — or curry stew — is made with slices of mutton pan-cooked in heaped chunks of white fat carved from the sheep’s rump, along with sparing amounts of green chilli and tomatoes.

Both plates are served with stacks of oven-fresh naan and bowls of fresh yogurt.

“It is the best food in the entire world,” gushes co-owner Nasir Khan, adding that the restaurant sources some of the best meat in the country and serves customers from across Pakistan daily along with local regulars.

By Khan’s calculations, the restaurant goes through hundreds of kilograms of meat a day — or about two dozen sheep — with hundreds if not thousands served.

Hash and meat

The clientele at Nisar’s Charsi and other Salt Market eateries usually arrive in large groups, with experienced customers ordering food by the kilo and guiding cleaver-wielding butchers to their preferred cuts, which are then cooked immediately.

Peshawar’s improved security has given business a boost, Khan said.

“We had a lot of troubles and pains,” he admitted, remembering friends lost during the years of devastating bombings and suicide attacks.

But some customers said they had been loyal to Peshawar’s cuisine even during the bloodshed.

“I’ve been coming here for more than 20 years now,” said Hammad Ali, 35, who travelled to Peshawar with eight other colleagues from Pakistan’s capital Islamabad for a gluttonous lunch.

“This taste is unique, that’s why we have come all this way.”

Orders generally take close to an hour to prepare, with customers quaffing tea and occasionally smoking hash ahead of the meal.

“They smoke it openly here,” explained Nisar Charsi’s head chef Mukam Pathan. “When someone smokes one joint of hash, they eat around two kilos of meat.”

For those looking for a little less lamb, the city’s renowned chapli kebab offers an alternative.

The kebab is typically made of minced beef and a mix of spices kneaded into patties and deep fried on a simmering iron skillet.

Rokhan Ullah — owner of Tory Kebab House — said the dish is most popular on cold, winter days that see ravenous customers flocking to its four branches across the city, overwhelming staff and making orders hard to fill.

“They eat it with passion… because one enjoys hot food when the weather is cold,” explained Ullah, who plans to expand in major cities across Pakistan.

Customer Muhib Ullah has been eating kebabs three to four days a week for the last decade.

“This is the tastiest and most famous food in Peshawar,” he declared.

Hours-long meals

For regular barbecue eater Omar Aamir Aziz, it is not just the heaping portions of meat that attract foodies to Peshawari cuisine, but the culture that has built up around the meal.

Other cities in Pakistan and abroad have more in the way of entertainment and nightlife options.

But in deeply conservative Peshawar, eating out is the primary leisure activity.

Meals tend to last for hours after the meat has been consumed as conversation continues over steaming cups of green tea.

“That’s what we have and that’s our speciality,” says Aziz. “We’ve been doing this for two, three, four hundred years.”

Brazil’s Bolsonaro Grabs Control Over Indigenous Lands

New Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro issued an executive order Wednesday making the Agriculture Ministry responsible for decisions concerning lands claimed by indigenous peoples, in a victory for agribusiness that will likely enrage environmentalists.

The temporary decree, which will expire unless it is ratified within 120 days by Congress, strips power over land claim decisions from indigenous affairs agency FUNAI.

It says the Agriculture Ministry will now be responsible for “identification, delimitation, demarcation and registration of lands traditionally occupied by indigenous people.”

The move stoked concern among environmentalists and rights groups that the far-right president, who took office Tuesday, will open up the vast Amazon rainforest and other ecologically sensitive areas of Brazil to greater commercial exploitation.

The executive order also moves the Brazilian Forestry Service, which promotes the sustainable use of forests and is linked to the Environment Ministry, under Agriculture Ministry control.

Additionally, the decree states that the Agriculture Ministry will be in charge of the management of public forests.

NGOs criticized

Bolsonaro, who enjoys strong support from Brazil’s powerful agribusiness sector, said during his campaign he was considering such a move, arguing that protected lands should be opened to commercial activities.

Brazil’s 900,000 indigenous people make up less than 1 percent of the population, but live on lands that stretch for 106.7 million hectares (264 million acres), or 12.5 percent of the national territory.

“Less than a million people live in these isolated places in Brazil, where they are exploited and manipulated by NGOs,” Bolsonaro tweeted, referring to non-profit groups. “Let us together integrate these citizens and value all Brazilians.”

Critics say Bolsonaro’s plan to open indigenous reservations to commercial activity will destroy native cultures and languages by integrating the tribes into Brazilian society.

Environmentalists say the native peoples are the last custodians of the Amazon, which is the world’s largest rainforest and is vital for climate stability.

Adding to the gloom for NGOs, Bolsonaro also signed an executive order to give his government potentially far-reaching and restrictive powers over non-governmental organizations working in Brazil.

The temporary decree mandates that the office of the Government Secretary, Carlos Alberto Dos Santos Cruz, “supervise, coordinate, monitor and accompany the activities and actions of international organizations and non-governmental organizations in the national territory.”

Good news for farm lobby

After she was sworn in on Wednesday, new Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina Dias defended the farm sector from accusations it has grown at the expense of the environment, adding that the strength of Brazil’s farmers had generated “unfounded accusations” from unnamed international groups.

Dias used to be the head of the farm caucus in Brazil’s Congress, which has long pushed for an end to land measures that it argues hold back the agricultural sector.

“Brazil is a country with extremely advanced environmental legislation and is more than able to preserve its native forests,” Dias said. “Our country is a model to be followed, never a transgressor to be punished.”

In comments to reporters after her speech, she said that decisions over land rights disputes were a new responsibility for the Agriculture Ministry. However, she indicated that in practice, the demarcation of land limits would fall to a council of ministries, without giving further details.

Bartolomeu Braz, the president of the national chapter of Aprosoja, a major grain growers association, cheered Wednesday’s move to transfer indigenous land demarcation to the Agriculture Ministry.

“The new rules will be interesting to the farmers and the Indians, some of whom are already producing soybeans. The Indians want to be productive too,” he added.

Environmental fears

Three-time presidential candidate and former Environment Minister Marina Silva, who was beaten by Bolsonaro in October’s election, reacted with horror to the move.

“Bolsonaro has begun his government in the worst possible way,” she wrote on Twitter.

Dinamã Tuxá, a member of Brazil’s Association of Indigenous Peoples, said many isolated communities viewed Bolsonaro’s administration with fear.

“We are very afraid because Bolsonaro is attacking indigenous policies, rolling back environmental protections, authorizing the invasion of indigenous territories and endorsing violence against indigenous peoples,” said Tuxá.

Under the new plan, the indigenous affairs agency FUNAI will be moved into a new ministry for family, women and human rights.

A former army captain and longtime member of Congress, Bolsonaro said at his inauguration on Tuesday that he had freed the country from “socialism and political correctness.”

An admirer of Donald Trump, Bolsonaro has suggested he will follow the U.S. president’s lead and pull out of the Paris climate change accord.

In addition to the indigenous lands decree, the new administration issued decrees affecting the economy and society on Wednesday, while forging closer ties with the United States.

Lawyers Request Seizure of Japanese Assets for Korean Forced Labor

Lawyers for South Koreans forced into wartime labor have taken legal steps to seize the South Korean assets of a Japanese company they are trying to pressure into obeying a court ruling to provide them compensation.

Lawyer Lim Jae-sung said Thursday the court in the city of Pohang could decide in two or three weeks whether to accept the request to seize the 2.34 million shares Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp. holds in its joint venture with South Korean steelmaker POSCO, which are estimated to be worth around $9.7 million.

Lim said Nippon Steel has been refusing to discuss compensation despite a ruling by South Korea’s Supreme Court in October that the company should pay 100 million won ($88,000) each to four plaintiffs who worked at its steel mills during Japan’s colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula. The court made a similar ruling on Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in November, triggering a diplomatic spats between the countries.

It’s unlikely the Japanese companies will follow the South Korean rulings. The Japanese government has expressed strong regret over the rulings and considers all wartime compensation issues settled by a treaty both countries signed in 1965.

Lawyers for forced laborers for Nippon Steel had set a Dec. 24 deadline for the company to respond to their request to begin compensation discussions, but the steelmaker did not respond. Lim said the lawyers decided not to file for a court order that would force Nippon Steel to sell its shares in the South Korean joint venture because they still hope to “amicably” settle the matter through negotiations.

Among the four plaintiffs in the Nippon Steel case, only 94-year-old Lee Chun-sik has survived the legal battle, which extended nearly 14 years.

South Korea says Japan used about 220,000 wartime Korean forced laborers before the end of World War II.

The Digital Revolution’s Double-Edged Sword

Digital developments that have upended businesses throughout the global economy, from music to manufacturing, are also changing what the world trades and how manufacturers and merchants move and sell their goods. Experts tell VOA’s Jim Randle, the digital revolution presents significant opportunities, but also serious problems, for countries.

Trade Optimism Lifts Stocks, But 2018 Ends in Red

Equities around the world rose Monday as possible progress in resolving the trade dispute between the United States and China engendered some investor optimism in what has been a punishing end of year for markets.

The U.S. benchmark S&P 500 stock index advanced in light trading volume after U.S. President Donald Trump said he held a “very good call” with China’s President Xi Jinping on Saturday to discuss trade and said “big progress” was being made.

Chinese state media were more reserved, saying Xi hoped the negotiating teams could meet each other halfway and reach an agreement that was mutually beneficial.

The rise in U.S. equities mirrored that in Asian and European markets, which were also buoyed by trade optimism.

Despite Monday’s advance, equities ended the year largely in the red, victims of investor anxiety over trade tensions and slowing economic growth. Asian and European shares had been sluggish for much of the year, and in recent months, U.S. stocks followed suit.

“If the European economy continues to decelerate and the Chinese economy decelerates because of tariffs, there is definitely going to be spillover to the United States,” said Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer at Boston Private.

The S&P 500 dropped more than 9 percent in December, its largest decline since the Great Depression. For the year, the index slid more than 6 percent, its biggest drop since the 2008 financial crisis.

Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ended down 16 percent for the year, while the STOXX 600 was more than 13 percent lower.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks around the globe fell 11.1 percent in 2018.

A further blow to the Chinese economy could spur a quicker resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute and thus boost global equities, Saccocia said. Survey data on Monday showed Chinese manufacturing activity contracting for the first time in two years even as the service sector improved.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 265.06 points, or 1.15 percent, to 23,327.46, the S&P 500 gained 21.11 points, or 0.85 percent, to 2,506.85 and the Nasdaq Composite added 50.76 points, or 0.77 percent, to 6,635.28.

MSCI’s emerging markets index rose 0.32 percent, while the MSCI world stock index gained 0.66 percent.

No more hikes

Yields on U.S. Treasuries fell on Monday, keeping with the trend over the past two months as investors moved to lower-risk investments.

Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 15/32 in price to yield 2.686 percent, compared with 2.738 percent late Friday.

The fall in Treasury yields reflects expectations of a slowdown, if not a pause altogether, in the Federal Reserve’s progression of interest-rate hikes.

The precipitous drop in yields has undermined the U.S. dollar in recent weeks. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.3 percent and on track to end December with a loss. It is, however, still set for its highest yearly percentage gain since 2015.

On Monday, the dollar fell to a six-month low against the yen.

The euro was up 0.2 percent to $1.1459, on track to end the year down nearly 5 percent against the dollar.

Oil posted its first year of losses since 2015, with Brent crude futures down 19.5 percent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures down 24.8 percent.

On Monday, Brent crude settled 59 cents higher, or 1.11 percent, at $53.80 a barrel. U.S. crude settled up 8 cents, or 0.18 percent, at $45.41 a barrel.

China Factory Activity Shrinks for First Time in 2 Years

China’s factory activity shrank in December for the first time in more than two years, an official survey showed Monday, intensifying pressure on Beijing to reverse an economic slowdown as it enters trade talks with the Trump administration.

The purchasing managers’ index of the National Bureau of Statistics and an industry group, the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, fell to 49.4 from November’s 50.0 on a 100-point scale. Any reading below 50 shows that activity is contracting. The December figure was the lowest since February 2016 and the first drop since July 2016.

 

In the quarter that ended in September, China’s economic growth sank to a post-global crisis low of 6.5 percent compared with a year earlier. The slowdown occurred despite government efforts to stem the downturn by ordering banks to lend more and by boosting spending on public works construction.

 

Forecasters expect annual growth of about 6.5 percent, down slightly from 2017’s 6.7 percent. But some industry segments, including auto and real estate sales, have suffered more serious declines.

 

“Downward pressure on the economy is still large,” economist Zhang Liqun said in a statement issued with the PMI.

 

Overall orders and exports both contracted, indicating that Chinese factories are suffering from weak demand at home and abroad. Exports to the United States kept growing at double-digit monthly rates through late 2018 despite President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs. But growth in exports to the rest of the world fell sharply in November and forecasters expect American demand to weaken in early 2019.

 

That adds to complications for Chinese leaders who are trying to reverse a broad economic slowdown and avert politically dangerous job losses.

 

Chinese and U.S. envoys are due to meet in early January for negotiations that are intended to resolve their economically threatening trade war. Over the weekend, Trump sounded an optimistic note, tweeting that he had spoken with President Xi Jinping by phone.

 

“Deal is moving along very well,” Trump tweeted. “If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!”

 

But economists say the 90-day moratorium on new penalties that was agreed to by Trump and Xi on Dec. 1 is likely too little time to resolve their sprawling dispute.

 

Chinese economic activity already was weakening after Beijing tightened controls on bank lending in late 2017 to cool a debt boom. The downturn was more abrupt than expected, which prompted regulators to shift course and ease credit controls. But they moved gradually to avoid reigniting a rise in debt. Their measures have yet to put a floor under declining growth.

 

Chinese leaders promised at an annual economic planning meeting in mid-December to shore up growth with tax cuts, easier lending for entrepreneurs and other steps.

 

 

Kenyan GDP Growth at 6 Percent in Third Quarter 2018

Kenya’s economy expanded faster in the third quarter of this year than in the same period last year due to strong performance in the agriculture and construction sectors, the statistics office said on Monday.

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said the economy grew 6 percent in the third quarter of 2018, compared with 4.7 percent in the same period in 2017.

It said the agriculture sector expanded by 5.2 percent compared with 3.7 percent in the third quarter of 2017, helped by better weather.

“Prices of key food crops remained low during the quarter compared to the corresponding quarter of 2017, an indication of relative stability in supply,” KNBS said.

Manufacturing grew by 3.2 percent from a 0.1 percent contraction in the third quarter of 2017, KNBS said.

It said that the electricity and water supply sector grew by 8.5 percent from 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 2017, mainly due to a big increase in the generation of electricity from hydro and geothermal sources.

Gross foreign reserves increased to 1,222.5 billion from 1,085.6 billion in the same period of last year.

The current account deficit narrowed by 23 percent to 116 billion Kenyan shillings ($1.14 billion), it said.

This was mainly due to lower imports of food and higher value of exports of goods and services.

The government forecasts that the economy will expand by 6.2 percent in 2019, up from a forecast 6.0 percent this year.