Boris Johnson to Head to Brussels for Crucial Brexit Talks

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the head of the European Commission plan to meet in person to see whether a last-minute trade deal can be reached, officials said Monday.Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after a lengthy phone call that “significant differences” remained on three key issues.They said they were planning to discuss the differences “in a physical meeting in Brussels in the coming days.”The two leaders spoke for the second time in 48 hours as their trade teams remained locked in stalled negotiations in Brussels.EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, left, speaks with France’s Permanent Representative to the EU Philippe Leglise-Costa during a meeting of ambassadors of European Union governments in Brussels, Dec. 7, 2020.Early Monday, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier had no news of a breakthrough when be briefed ambassadors of the 27 member states on the chances of a deal with London before the Dec. 31 deadline.One official from an EU nation said “the difficulties persist” over the legal oversight of any trade deal and standards of fair play that the U.K. needs to meet to be able to export in the EU. A lot of work also remains on fisheries, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks were ongoing.Penny Mordaunt, a junior minister for Brexit planning, told lawmakers in the House of Commons that the “level playing field” — competition rules that Britain must agree on to gain access to the EU market — was the most difficult unresolved issue.Britain’s pound currency fell more than 1% against the dollar to less than $1.33 amid the uncertainty.Johnson’s spokesman, Jamie Davies, declined to offer odds on a deal being struck.”I’m not going to put a percentage on it,” he said. “We are prepared to negotiate for as long as we have time available if we think an agreement is still possible.”At his early morning meeting with EU ambassadors, Barnier faced some anxious member states that feared too much might have been yielded already to London. If talks continue after Monday, they will be closing in on a two-day EU summit starting Thursday, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron will be major players.Germany wants a deal partly because its massive car industry has always found a welcome export market in Britain. France — seen by Britain as the “bad cop” in trade negotiations — has taken the lead in demanding that U.K. companies closely align themselves with EU rules and environmental and social standards if they still want to export to the lucrative market of 450 million people.The politically charged issue of fisheries also continues to play an outsized role. The EU has demanded widespread access to U.K. fishing grounds that historically have been open to foreign trawlers. Britain insists it must control its own waters, doling out quotas annually.In a further complication, Johnson’s government plans Monday to revive legislation that breaches the legally binding Brexit withdrawal agreement it struck with the EU last year.The U.K. government acknowledges that the Internal Market Bill breaks international law, and the legislation has been condemned by the EU, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden and scores of British lawmakers, including many from Johnson’s Conservative Party.Britain says the bill, which gives the government power to override parts of the withdrawal agreement relating to trade with Northern Ireland, is needed as an “insurance policy” to protect the flow of goods within the U.K. in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The EU sees it as an act of bad faith that could imperil Northern Ireland’s peace settlement.On Wednesday the U.K. plans to introduce a Taxation Bill that contains more measures along the same lines and would further irritate the EU.But the British government offered the bloc an olive branch on the issue, saying it would remove the lawbreaking clauses if a joint U.K.-EU committee on Northern Ireland found solutions in the coming days. It said talks in the committee, which continued Monday, had been constructive.

US Condemns Venezuela Election as ‘Charade’

The United States said Monday that the legislative elections held in Venezuela on Sunday in which President Nicolas Maduro’s socialist political alliance is set to gain control of the National Assembly were a sham. “The United States, along with numerous other democracies around the world, condemns this charade, which failed to meet any minimum standard of credibility,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement. The National Assembly is the last of the country’s branches of government where the U.S.-backed opposition held sway. FILE – Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro votes at a polling station during the parliamentary election in Caracas, Venezuela, Dec. 6, 2020.”Maduro brazenly rigged these elections in his favor through the illegal seizure of political parties’ names and ballot logos, manipulation of the process by his loyalist electoral council, violence and intimidation, and other undemocratic tactics,” the statement said. The United States is one of 50 countries that does not recognize Maduro as Venezuela’s leader, instead supporting National Assembly President Juan Guaido, who claimed victory in January 2019 presidential elections but has not assumed office. The European Union refused to send independent election monitors Sunday, claiming the conditions for a democratic process did not exist. Pro-Maduro candidates received 67% of votes cast, according to Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, with voter participation at just more than 30%. The opposition accused Maduro of rigging the election and called on their supporters to boycott the vote.  “The majority of Venezuela turned its back on the fraud that began months ago,”  Guaido said. The boycott did not dampen Maduro’s mood. “We have recovered the National Assembly with the majority vote of the Venezuelan people,” The Associated Press quoted the Venezuelan leader as saying in a televised address. “It’s a great victory without a doubt for democracy.” 
 

Human Rights Issues Cloud France’s Dealings With Egypt

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Monday to boost economic and military ties with France. The dealings present a dilemma for the French government in light of Egypt’s poor human rights record.  In January 2019, el-Sissi and Macron met in Cairo, where the French president said that Egypt was not headed in “the right direction” on human rights.  Ahead of Monday’s meeting, several NGOs issued a statement pressing Macron to take a strong stand on the issue. Their statement said that France had – in the groups’ words – “long indulged President el-Sissi’s brutal repression of any form of dissent.” Katia Roux, in charge of advocacy with Amnesty International France, says there has been an unprecedented repression against civil society in Egypt since el-Sissi became president in 2014. Roux says the international community is not doing enough to ensure Egypt respects human rights.In a joint press conference at the French presidential palace, Macron rebuked the critics and vowed to continue the sale of weapons to Egypt.Macron said he opposes any condition on matters of defense and economic cooperation because of what he describes as disagreements over human rights. Macron says it is more effective to have a policy of demanding dialogue than a boycott which – he says – would only reduce the effectiveness of a partner in the fight against terrorism and for the region’s stability.  The French president’s office said topping the agenda in el-Sissi’s meeting with Macron was Libya and Syria.To counter Turkey’s push to expand its influence in the region, France and Egypt stress the need for the Eastern Mediterranean to remain “as a space for cooperation which respects all sovereignties,” the French presidency said in a statement. Egypt has become a strategic partner for France in the Middle East amid growing tensions with Turkey.  The Egyptian government is a major weapons client for French fighter jets and warships. However, no major contracts were expected to be signed during this visit.
 

Britain Makes Final Preparations for First Round of COVID-19 Vaccinations

Britain is on the eve of launching a COVID-19 vaccination campaign.   Staffers with the nation’s National Health Service, nursing home residents and their caregivers on Tuesday will begin to receive the first of two doses of a vaccine jointly developed by U.S.-based pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech.  The initiative will start nearly a week after the government’s medical regulatory agency granted emergency approval for the vaccine, making Britain the first western nation ready to begin mass inoculations.  The approval came weeks after Pfizer announced the vaccine had been shown to be over 90% effective after its final, widespread clinical trial. The entrance to the Pfizer UK headquarters is seen in Tadworth, Britain, Dec. 2, 2020.Britain received 800,000 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine Sunday, the first of a total of 40 million it has purchased. Delivery of the vaccine is complicated by the fact that it must be stored in super-cold refrigerators at temperatures below 70 degrees Celsius.   British news outlets reported Sunday that 94-year-old Queen Elizabeth II and her 99-year-old husband, Prince Philip, will announce when they are to receive the vaccine, hoping to reassure the British public of its safety.  FILE – A research scientist works inside a laboratory of India’s Serum Institute, the world’s largest maker of vaccines, which is working on vaccines against COVID-19 in Pune, India, May 18, 2020.In a separate development, the Serum Institute of India has applied for emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine under development by British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca in collaboration with the University of Oxford.  Serum, the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, is leaning heavily towards the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine because it can be stored at 2 to 8 degrees Celsius, as opposed to the super-cold requirements of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.   And Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced Sunday the country has received a shipment of a coronavirus vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac biotechnology company.  The vaccine is still undergoing testing in Indonesia, where the government is making final preparations for an initiative to inoculate as many as 270 million people.   United Statesthe United States, health regulators will meet Thursday to consider whether to authorize emergency use of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, followed by a second meeting a week later to discuss another vaccine under development by U.S.-based biotechnology company Moderna. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told Fox News Sunday that if a panel of experts at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approves the Pfizer vaccine, “within hours [health workers] can be vaccinating” patients.  FILE – Medical personnel check on a COVID-19 patient at Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in Los Angeles, Nov. 19, 2020.U.S. authorities have decided that medical and emergency workers as well as employees and residents of nursing homes are at the highest risk of contracting the infection and will be first in line to be inoculated. Azar said that 30 million to 40 million doses of the vaccine will be available by the end of the year, with millions more doses to be manufactured in the first half of 2021.  President-elect Joe Biden has said his transition team has seen “no detailed plan” for distribution of the vaccines. But Azar said, “With all due respect, that’s just nonsense. This is being micromanaged” by the outgoing Trump administration.  FILE – A volunteer is injected with a vaccine as he participates in a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccination study at the Research Centers of America, in Hollywood, Florida, Sept. 24, 2020.In one national poll, about four in 10 people say they will refuse to get the shot, either because they are wary of vaccinations in general or the coronavirus inoculation specifically.  Some Americans Worry About Safety of Coronavirus VaccineA significant number of Americans express concern over accelerated timeline in developing COVID inoculationsBut Azar said that “positive experiences” of people being inoculated “will drive more people” to get the necessary two shots a month apart to become vaccinated.  Biden said last week that when he is inaugurated January 20, he will ask that Americans wear a mask for 100 days to try to curb the spread of the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease.  The world has more than 67.1 million total COVID-19 cases, including more than 1.5 million deaths.  The United States leads the world in both categories, with 14.7 million total cases and 282,312 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.  

Brexit Crunch Time as EU and UK Still Divided Over Trade Deal

Brexit hung in the balance on Monday as Britain and the European Union made a last-ditch attempt to bridge significant differences to strike a trade deal that would avoid a disorderly exit in just 24 days. As fears rose of a chaotic no-trade deal Brexit on Dec. 31 when the United Kingdom finally leaves the EU’s orbit, talks will resume in Brussels before Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen review the situation in the evening. Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin said on Sunday the odds of a deal were just 50-50 while investment bank JPMorgan said odds of a no-trade deal exit had risen to one third from 20 percent. “Decisive hours for the future of EU-UK relations,” said Sebastian Fischer, an EU spokesman for Germany, the current holder of the EU presidency. Failure to secure a deal would snarl borders, spook financial markets and disrupt the delicate supply chains that stretch across Europe and beyond just as the world tries to cope with the vast economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic. Deal or no deal? For weeks, the two sides have been haggling – as yet without a result – over fishing rights in British waters, ensuring fair competition for companies and ways to solve future disputes. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier told national envoys to Brussels on Monday morning that there was no agreement yet in UK trade talks, a senior diplomat told Reuters. Updating the EU envoys, Barnier said the three most contentious issues in the negotiations have not yet been resolved, according to the diplomat, who was taking part in the closed-door briefing. “I still think it is more likely than not that we will find a way of getting a deal done but I won’t be shocked if it falls apart,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney was quoted as saying by the Irish Times. “If we don’t get a deal in the next few days, then obviously there are serious problems around ratification and timelines.” In a move that could further undermine the talks, the British government will press ahead with draft laws this week that would breach London’s earlier divorce treaty with the bloc. Junior Foreign Office Minister James Cleverly said on Monday the clauses that breach the treaty would be re-inserted. 

Venezuelans Await Results from Boycotted Legislative Elections

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s socialist party was poised to gain control of the National Assembly, the country’s last major independent institution, in legislative elections boycotted by the main opposition coalition. Official results had not yet been released by late Sunday night, but analysts say they are a near-foregone conclusion with the vote largely shunned by rival candidates and declared a sham by the U.S., European Union and several other nations. Maduro, who already has the loyalty of the courts, the military, prosecutors and other institutions, is expected to load the formerly opposition-controlled National Assembly with his supporters after the vote. “The truth cannot be hidden,” Juan Guaidó, whose opposition coalition is boycotting the vote, said in a videotaped message, noting the apparent low voter turnout. “The majority of Venezuela turned its back on the fraud that began months ago.” Despite Venezuela’s political turmoil, voting took place Sunday with no apparent problems in Caracas. A light flow of voters walked up to ballot boxes at Andres Bello School in downtown Caracas. They checked their names on a wall outside, and inside showed identification cards before registering their votes on touchscreen machines, which printed a paper ballot they dropped into a box. “I came to vote, and in less than half a second I have voted, quickly,” Caracas resident Rafael Espinoza said. “I’ll tell anyone who wants to do so that they can come down and vote in fractions of a second.” The Supreme Court this year appointed a new elections commission, including three members who have been sanctioned by the U.S. and Canada, without participation of the opposition-led Congress, as the law requires. The court also removed the leadership of three opposition parties, appointing new leaders the opposition accuses of conspiring to support Maduro. Maduro has campaigned for his party’s candidates — including his son and wife — promising to finally silence the right-wing opposition, which he accuses of inciting violent protests and inviting U.S. sanctions. “There are those who plot coups, those who ask for military intervention,” Maduro said on Saturday night in a broadcast on state television, dismissing criticism of the election. “We say: Votes yes — war no, bullets no.” The election comes amid uncertainty over the impending change of U.S. administration. Like outgoing President Donald Trump, President-elect Joe Biden has called Maduro a “dictator,” though it’s unclear what approach he’ll take toward Venezuela’s crisis. Guaidó’s opposition movement is holding its own referendum over several days immediately after the election. It will ask Venezuelans whether they want to end Maduro’s rule and hold new presidential elections. Polls indicate that neither Maduro nor Guaidó are popular among Venezuelans as the nation’s economic and political crisis deepens despite having the world’s largest oil reserves. Karol Teran, a nurse and single mother in Caracas, said she didn’t vote because it would have no impact. The election is controlled, she said. “I don’t feel like wasting my time, giving these people the opportunity, so I simply don’t vote,” she said. She was still considering whether to participate in the opposition’s referendum. More than 5 million people have fled the country in recent years, the world’s largest migration after that of war-torn Syria. The International Monetary Fund projects a 25% decline this year in Venezuela’s GDP, while hyperinflation diminishes the value of its currency, the bolivar, now worth less than a millionth of a dollar on the free market. Maduro, the hand-picked successor to the late President Hugo Chávez, won a second term in 2018. But his political adversaries and scores of nations, including the U.S., reject his legitimacy, alleging the vote was rigged and his most popular challengers were banned. Guaidó, 37, vowed to oust 58-year-old Maduro early last year — basing his claim to the interim presidency on his leadership of the National Assembly, whose term legally ends in early January under the constitution. The Trump administration and other countries have said they will continue to support Guaidó. Washington has hit Maduro and his political allies with sanctions, and the U.S. Justice Department has indicted Maduro as a “narcoterrorist,” offering a $15 million reward for his arrest. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said that Sunday’s election was fraudulent. International bodies like the European Union have refused to send observers to Sunday’s election. Maduro’s government invited sympathetic international observers, former Presidents Evo Morales of Bolivia and Rafael Correa of Ecuador. 

Thousands in London Protest India’s Farming Reforms; 13 Arrested

Thousands of people protested and blocked traffic in central London on Sunday over Indian agricultural reforms that have triggered mass demonstrations in India, and police made 13 arrests over breaches of COVID regulations.A crowd of demonstrators converged on the Indian embassy, located on a major artery in the center of the British capital, and groups marched around the Trafalgar Square area.Tens of thousands of farmers have protested in India against three laws the government says are meant to overhaul antiquated procurement procedures and give growers more options to sell their produce.Farmers fear the legislation, passed in September, will eventually dismantle India’s regulated markets and stop the government from buying wheat and rice at guaranteed prices, leaving them at the mercy of private buyers.Britain is home to a large Indian diaspora, and many Britons who trace their family roots to India are strongly engaged with news from the country.There was little social distancing in evidence at the London protests and few participants were wearing face masks, a Reuters photographer at the scene said.The Metropolitan Police said it had arrested 13 people for breaching restrictions aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19, and that four of those people were later released after being issued fines.Police also confiscated fireworks from teenagers who were seen setting them off toward a crowd. There were no reports of injuries, and traffic was flowing freely after the crowds dispersed.”The capital remains in the midst of a pandemic. It is vital that we all play our part in the fight against COVID-19,” said police Commander Paul Brogden in a statement.
 

Romanian PM Claims Election Win, But One Exit Poll Differs

Romanian Prime Minister Ludovic Orban claimed victory in Sunday’s national election seen as pivotal for the country’s future in the European mainstream, although one exit poll showed his ruling Liberals (PNL) losing by a narrow margin.A reform-minded fiscal conservative, Orban is expected to be nominated by President Klaus Iohannis to form a coalition government, even if final results show him slightly behind his rivals, the leftist PSD.Orban quickly claimed victory, with one exit poll conducted by INSOMAR giving him a narrow lead of 32% versus the PSD’s 28%. Another exit poll by Curs-Avantgarde put the PSD at 30.5% and the PNL at 29.1%. Both showed the centrist USR-Plus, Orban’s likely coalition partner, at roughly 16%.”The PNL thinks it is the winner of this election,” Orban told supporters in a quick speech. “We will seek to represent an array of interests.”A government led by Orban would be welcomed in Brussels, frustrated by years of efforts by a succession of leftist Romanian governments to suppress the independence of the courts, a charge they had denied. Critics had compared what’s happened in Romania to judiciary overhauls in Poland and Hungary that the European Commission says subvert the rule of law.In power for a year, Orban had been constrained in any reform efforts by a parliament controlled by the PSD, which has seen three prime ministers toppled since the last legislative election in 2016 amid infighting over jobs.The party’s last government collapsed in late 2019, following the imprisonment of former leader Liviu Dragnea on corruption charges.Pandemic fearsCampaigning on a promise to bring Romania closer to the European mainstream, Orban has pledged to restore investor sentiment badly shaken by the PSD’s fiscal populism and revive efforts to repair neglected infrastructure and public services.The PSD had seen a last-minute rise in polls, after it accused Orban of botching Romania’s approach to the coronavirus pandemic.With a 6% annual contraction in the third quarter, Romania had one of the worst economic outcomes in the EU.The party’s core rural electorate was angry over social distancing restrictions that curbed the ability of small-plot farmers to sell their produce in nearby cities.”I thank Romanians who punished this mockery that was (Orban’s) handling of the pandemic,” PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu said.Turnout was the lowest since Romania shed communism in a bloody revolt in 1989, with decades of voter apathy over failed reforms compounded by fears over coronavirus contagion in polling stations.There were few new rules introduced for election day, but Romania has had one of the highest death rates in the EU. Schools and restaurants remain closed and an evening curfew was imposed in November.Orban said he expected coalition talks to proceed quickly. But he faces a daunting task to contain public finances to avert the budget deficit ballooning into double digits, something that economists say could trigger ratings agencies to bring Romania below investment grade.The Romanian leu has traded near record lows against the euro over the past year amid political turmoil and rating concerns.Exit polls did not include votes from the Romanian diaspora. Partial official results were expected on Monday morning.
 

Thousands Protest in London Against India’s Farming Reforms

Thousands of people protested in central London on Sunday over Indian agricultural reforms that have triggered mass demonstrations in India.A crowd of demonstrators converged on the Indian embassy, located on Aldwych, a major artery in the center of the British capital, and groups marched around the Trafalgar Square area, a Reuters photographer at the scene said.Tens of thousands of farmers have protested in India against three laws the government says are meant to overhaul antiquated procurement procedures and give growers more options to sell their produce.Farmers fear the legislation, passed in September, will eventually dismantle India’s regulated markets and stop the government from buying wheat and rice at guaranteed prices, leaving them at the mercy of private buyers.Britain is home to a large Indian diaspora and many Britons who trace their family roots to India are strongly engaged with news from the country.There was little social distancing in evidence at the London protests and few participants were wearing face masks.The Metropolitan Police warned that people taking part in a gathering that did not respect COVID-19 restrictions risked being fined, and called on people to leave the area. 

Turkish-Backed Rebels Intensify Attacks on Syrian Town  

A town in northern Syria has increasingly been under attack from rebel groups backed by Turkey amid fears of a new Turkish offensive into the region.   On Sunday, Syrian rebel fighters supported by the Turkish military carried out artillery attacks on the town of Ain Issa and several nearby villages, local news media reported.    Ain Issa is currently controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a major U.S. partner in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) terror group. The town is located on the strategic M4 Highway that connects northeast Syria to the western part of the war-torn country.     “In the past two weeks, these attacks on Ain Issa have increased significantly,” said Hosheng Hesen, a reporter with the Syria-based North Press Agency.   “In addition to the town, a camp for internally displaced people has also been targeted several times by the armed groups,” he told VOA.   According to North Press Agency, the ongoing shelling has left at least nine civilians wounded, including two children.   Turkey views the SDF as an extension of the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an outlawed group designated as a terrorist organization by Ankara and Washington.   In October 2019, Turkey launched a major offensive against SDF fighters in Syria, dislodging them from Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, two towns located north and east of Ain Issa respectively.   With a continued Turkish military buildup near the Syrian border, observers say Turkish forces could begin a new large-scale operation to capture Ain Issa and its surrounding areas from Kurdish forces. “At this point, everything is possible,” Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said.   The Syrian Observatory reported that the area has been witnessing “almost daily bombardment” in recent weeks.   In October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on several occasions talked about the possibility of a new Turkish offensive into northeast Syria.     

Venezuela Vote Likely to Give Congress to Maduro’s Party

Venezuela’s congressional election on Sunday will almost certainly give President Nicolás Maduro control over the country’s last major independent institution, but will do little to improve his image at home and abroad. Maduro, who already has the loyalty of the courts, the military, prosecutors and other institutions, seeks to load the National Assembly with members of his United Socialist Party of Venezuela, and critics say he’s guaranteed that by rigging the system to smother the last remnants of democracy in Venezuela. An opposition coalition led by U.S.-backed politician Juan Guaidó is boycotting the vote. The European Union, the U.S. and several other nations, have already declared the vote a sham. “How’s Maduro’s fraud going?” Guaidó tweeted, showing pictures of an empty polling place. “Failed.” “I came to vote, and in less than half a second I have voted, quickly,” Caracas resident Rafael Espinoza said. “I’ll tell anyone who wants to do so that they can come down and vote in fractions of a second.” The Supreme Court this year appointed a new elections commission, including three members who have been sanctioned by the U.S. and Canada, without participation of the opposition-led Congress, as the law requires. The court also removed the leadership of three opposition parties, appointing new leaders the opposition accuses of conspiring to support Maduro. Maduro has campaigned for his party’s candidates — including his son and wife — promising to finally silence the right-wing opposition, which he accuses of inciting violent protests and inviting U.S. sanctions. “There are those who plot coups, those who ask for military intervention,” Maduro said on Saturday night in a broadcast on state television, dismissing criticism of the election. “We say: Votes yes — war no, bullets no.” Guaidó’s opposition movement is holding a referendum over several days after the election. It will ask Venezuelans whether they want to end Maduro’s rule and hold new presidential elections. It’s unclear whether either vote will draw masses of people as polls indicate that neither Maduro nor Guaidó are popular among Venezuelans at a time the nation’s economic and political crisis is deepening despite having the world’s largest oil reserves. More than 5 million people have fled the country in recent years, the world’s largest migration after that of war-torn Syria. The International Monetary Fund projects a 25% decline this year in Venezuela’s GDP, while hyperinflation diminishes the value of its currency, the bolivar, now worth less than a millionth of a dollar on the free market. Maduro, the hand-picked successor to the late President Hugo Chávez, won a second term in 2018. But his political adversaries and several nations, including the U.S., reject his legitimacy, alleging the vote was rigged and his most popular challengers were banned. Guaidó, 37, vowed to oust 58-year-old Maduro early last year — basing his claim to the interim presidency on his leadership of the National Assembly, whose term legally ends in early January under the constitution. The Trump administration led scores of nations in support of Guaidó and they have said they will continue to support him in the absence of what they consider fair elections. Washington has hit Maduro and his political allies with sanctions, and the U.S. Justice Department has indicted Maduro as a “narcoterrorist,” offering a $15 million reward for his arrest. On Saturday, the White House National Security Council said the election scheduled for Sunday was fraudulent. “This election only serves to keep Maduro in power and does nothing to build a better future for the people of Venezuela,” the council tweeted. “The U.S. will continue its unwavering demands for freedom, basic human rights, the rule of law, and truly fair elections in Venezuela.” International bodies like the European Union have refused to send observers to Sunday’s election, saying the conditions for a democratic process don’t exist. Karol Teran, a nurse and single mother on her way to work in Caracas, said she decided not to vote because it would have no impact. The election is controlled, she said. “I don’t feel like wasting my time, giving these people the opportunity, so I simply don’t vote,” she said. “We’re tired of all this. I’m tired of all of this. It’s not easy.”  

Dozens Detained in Belarus at Anti-Lukeshnko Marches

Belarusian security forces detained dozens of people across the country on Sunday as street protests calling on authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko to resign continued.Demonstrators gathered in Minsk and other Belarusian cities in nearly continuous protests since a disputed presidential election in August that the opposition says was rigged.This is the third Sunday during which the demonstrations in Belarus are being held under the banner of March of Neighbors, a strategy adopted by the opposition as a way of decentralizing the protests and making it more difficult for police to round up activists.The August 9 vote gave Lukashenko a sixth presidential term, but the opposition believes candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was the real winner of the election and is calling for the strongman’s resignation, the release of all political prisoners, and a new election.The West refuses to accept the outcome, slapping sanctions on Lukashenko and dozens of top Belarusian officials.Amid an intensifying crackdown by the Belarusian authorities on the protest movement, detentions were reported on December 6 in several Minsk districts and other cities across the country, including Brest and Hrodna.The Minsk-based Vyasna (Spring) human rights center reported more than 40 detentions by 3:20 p.m. local time, mainly in the capital, where several subway stations were briefly closed and at least two squares were cordoned off by security forces.A 79-year-old woman was among those detained in Minsk.Two BelaPAN journalists covering the demonstrations in Hrodna were held by police.People in several Belarusian cities reported problems with accessing Telegram, an instant messaging service used by many protesters to communicate.Tsikhanouskaya, who left the country soon after the election under pressure from the authorities and is currently in exile in Lithuania, said on December 5 she would “support everyone who comes out to their yard, district, and city.” “Each march is a reminder that Belarusians will not give up. We will not allow our rights to be taken away and our eyes to be closed to crimes,” she said in a statement.A week ago, security forces used tear gas and stun grenades against some demonstrators in Minsk and detained more than 300 protesters across the country, according to the Minsk-based Vyasna (Spring) human rights center. 

Britain, EU to Resume Trade Talks

British and European Union negotiators will meet in Brussels on Sunday in a last-ditch attempt to strike a post-Brexit trade deal before a transition agreement ends on Dec. 31.British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke on Saturday and instructed their teams to resume talks after they were paused on Friday.In a joint statement after their call, Johnson and von der Leyen said that no agreement was feasible if disagreements on the three thorny issues of governance, fisheries and competition rules, known as the level playing field, were not resolved.”This is the final throw of the dice,” a British source close to the negotiations said.EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said the talks on Sunday with his British counterpart David Frost would show whether a new trade deal could be struck.A majority of Johnson’s ministers were willing to back him if he decides a deal is not in Britain’s interests, the Times newspaper reported, saying 13 cabinet ministers — including eight who opposed Brexit — had confirmed they would do so.British farming minister George Eustice backed that up in an interview on Sky News on Sunday, saying the country had done a huge amount of preparation for a no-deal and was ready to go through with such a scenario.”We’ll continue to work on these negotiations until there’s no point in doing so any further,” said Eustice.But Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, a key figure in Brexit talks in recent years, said it was not credible for the British government to suggest they could manage a no-deal.Striking a more optimistic note, Coveney said it was his “very strong view” that a deal could be done. “We are more likely to get a deal than not,” Coveney told Ireland’s Sunday Independent newspaper.Negotiations were paused on Friday after hopes of a deal earlier in the week evaporated. The British team said the EU had made demands incompatible with its sovereignty and warned that the talks could end without an agreement.Coveney denied the EU had hardened its stance.If they fail to reach a deal, a five-year Brexit divorce will end messily just as Britain and its former EU partners grapple with the economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic.Experts have warned that a no-deal scenario would cause huge long-term disruption to the British economy.

St. Nicholas Tradition Triumphs Over COVID-19 in Prague

Christmas tradition won out over the coronavirus in Prague on Saturday with a COVID-19-compliant, socially distanced St. Nicholas giving out presents to excited children.Under normal circumstances, St. Nicholas, a bearded man accompanied by the devil and an angel, would give children in the Czech Republic presents in exchange for a song or a poem.But with coronavirus measures around the world throwing up obstacles to festive celebrations, Prague-based circus company Cirk La Putyka opted for a drive-through solution.”Over the past nine months we have been looking for different ways to approach the audience,” company director Rosta Novak told AFP.”This is just another way to do that at a time when theaters can’t play and bands cannot perform,” he added.Members of circus company Cirk La Putyka dressed as devils entertain people during their drive-through performance, Dec. 5, 2020, in Prague.In line with tradition, cars first drove through “hell,” with devils performing acrobatic tricks and fire shows.Then they proceeded to “heaven” with angels and finally to St. Nicholas himself.The children received presents at the final stop, many of them sticking their heads out of windows to relish the experience.Driving a van full of children, Ondrej Prachar said they had all been thrilled.”It was absolutely perfect,” he said, adding that it had also been a tad less frightening than the traditional version, when children are sometimes scared by the idea of the devil carrying a bag in which he puts naughty kids.The St. Nicholas tradition dates to the Middle Ages, and St. Nicholas Day is celebrated in many countries.Born in Turkey around 280, St. Nicholas, the patron saint of sailors, tradesmen, pilgrims and children, handed out a sizable portion of his wealthy parents’ property to the poor after their death.

Fiscal Reform, Corruption in Focus in Romania Parliamentary Election 

Romanians head to the polls Sunday in a national ballot key to restoring the country’s reputation among investors, with the incumbent, reform-oriented centrists of Prime Minister Ludovic Orban holding a narrow lead over opposition Social Democrats.In power for a year despite his opponents’ hold over parliament, Orban, 57, has said he would undo a 40% pension hike ordered by the leftist PSD, which economists say could bloat the deficit to 11% of GDP and push Romania’s credit rating to junk.He has pledged to halt efforts by leftist-led cabinets to sap court independence amid the judiciary’s scrutiny of alleged corruption and misuse of funds, accusations the PSD denies.’Decisive choice’Orban has campaigned on a promise to bring the Black Sea state closer to the European mainstream following years of fiscal populism and political instability coupled with neglect of rundown infrastructure and public services.”There is a decisive choice to make on December 6: We can become a top EU member or remain, again, a laggard,” Orban told party members during the campaign. “I’m not happy with an average Romania.”The Romanian leu has traded near all-time lows against the euro in the last year, following a string of corruption-related scandals that has toppled three governments since the last parliamentary election in 2016.All three main rating agencies have Romania only one notch above junk and on a negative outlook.FILE – Romania’s Prime Minister Ludovic Orban listens during a panel discussion at the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany, Feb. 16, 2020.Seeking reelection one year after the government it led stepped down in a no-confidence vote, the PSD has clawed back support in recent months, amid anxiety among its core rural electorate over Orban’s fiscal conservatism.The coronavirus pandemic has also fueled anger over social distancing restrictions that have hit thousands of small farmers who sell their produce in nearby cities.More than 18 million Romanians are eligible to vote, but analysts expect turnout of about 40% because of voters’ fear of contagion, with polls to open at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and close at 9 p.m.Opinion polls give Orban’s PNL about 28% to 30% of the vote and 24% to 26% for the PSD. A September poll put PNL at 35% against PSD’s 20%.If it wins on Sunday, the PNL is expected to seek a governing coalition with the progressive USR-Plus party, running at 15% to 17%.Struggling economyWith a year-on-year contraction of 6% in the third quarter, Romania’s economic performance has been among the worst in the European Union during the pandemic, although the PNL says it has sought to keep much of the economy open.”As all countries have found, it is immensely difficult to strike a balance between keeping people safe and protecting livelihoods,” Siegfried Mureșan, a PNL member of the European Parliament, said.The PSD blamed the government, however, for going too far, by shutting indoor farmers markets during wintertime.”You need to vote to rescue yourself,” PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu said on his Facebook page. “Romanians want a government to stop this virus and bring back hope, reopen schools, create safe jobs and decent pensions.”

Protesters Return to French Streets to Denounce Police Violence; Tear Gas Fired

Thousands protested Saturday in Paris to denounce police violence and President Emmanuel Macron’s security policy plans, which the demonstrators say would crimp civil liberties.
 
In one incident, police fired tear gas and charged after fireworks were launched at their lines. Hooded youths smashed one store window. There were violent clashes between protesters and police in a similar protest last week.
 
In a U-turn earlier this week, Macron’s ruling party said it would rewrite part of a draft security bill that would curb rights to circulate images of police officers after it provoked a strong backlash among the public and the political left.
 Paris Police Suspended Over Beating of Black Man The incident came as President Emmanuel Macron’s government is pushing a new bill that restricts the ability to film policeThe protesters marched through the French capital under the close watch of riot police, waving banners that read “France, land of police rights” and “Withdrawal of the security law.”
 
“We’re heading toward an increasingly significant limitation of freedoms. There is no justification,” said Paris resident Karine Shebabo.
 
Another protester, Xavier Molenat, said: “France has this habit of curbing freedoms while preaching their importance to others.”
 
The beating of a Black man, music producer Michel Zecler, by several police officers in late November intensified public anger. That incident came to light after closed circuit television and mobile phone footage circulated online.
 
Critics had said the original bill would make it harder to hold the police to account in a country where some rights groups allege systemic racism inside law enforcement agencies. Many opponents of the draft law say it goes too far even as rewritten.

Earthquake of Magnitude 5.5 Strikes off Turkey’s Mediterranean Coast – Kandilli Observatory

An earthquake of magnitude 5.5 struck off the coast of Turkey’s Mediterranean coastal province of Antalya on Saturday, the Kandilli Observatory said.  The earthquake occurred at a depth of 93.3 km (58 miles), it said, after revising the magnitude up from 5.4.Turkish media said the earthquake was felt in Antalya and neighboring provinces. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage to buildings. 

Russia Begins COVID Inoculations

Russia has begun its COVID-19 vaccination program. Seventy clinics in Moscow began inoculating people Saturday with the Sputnik-V COVID-19 shot, the city’s coronavirus task force said.The vaccine is being made available to health care workers, social workers and people who work in schools because they run the highest risk of exposure to the coronavirus. People over 60 are excluded from receiving the shot, media reports say.Russia’s vaccine is administered in two injections, with the second injection scheduled for three weeks after the first.Thousands of people have registered to receive the vaccine.  It was not immediately clear, however, how much of the vaccine has been produced.Some scientists have questioned the efficacy of the Russian-manufactured vaccine because of its speedy appearance on the market.   Russia has 2.4 million COVID infections and more than 42,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins.  The California city of San Francisco and several Bay Area counties said Friday that they will begin imposing stay-at-home orders this weekend as part of their battle against the coronavirus.California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday that the state was on the verge of imposing stay-at-home orders on a regional basis once intensive care units in the state’s five regions reached more than 85% capacity.San Francisco and the Bay Area counties, however, are not waiting for the hospital capacity threshold and are instead voluntarily opting into the state’s regional stay-at-home order.”We are in our worst surge yet of COVID-19. It is stressing health care systems across the state of California and taxing our health care workers,” Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco’s director of health, said Friday. “We need urgent intervention now if we want to be able to care for the sick in mid-to-late December. We do not want your parent, your spouse, your child, your grandparent or any loved one to be in need of help and our hospitals too overwhelmed to properly care for them.”FILE – California Street, usually filled with cable cars, is seen empty in San Francisco, Calif., on March 18, 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic.Starting Sunday night, the order will close all outdoor dining, public outdoor playgrounds, outdoor museums, zoos and aquariums, drive-in theaters, and open-air tour buses and boats. Pet grooming and electronics or shoe repair, considered low-contact retail, will be allowed to operate on a curbside-dropoff basis. All other retail, including grocery stores, will be allowed to operate only at 20% capacity.“We must do whatever is necessary in order to get the virus under control,” said San Francisco Mayor London Breed. “This is about protecting people’s lives.”The head of the World Health Organization said Friday that with a COVID-19 vaccine on the horizon, nations must start investing and preparing for the next pandemic.“Despite years of warnings, many countries were simply not ready for COVID-19,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a special session of the U.N. General Assembly on the coronavirus. “Many mistakenly assumed their strong health systems would protect them.”He said countries that have dealt with recent coronaviruses, including SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, and MERS, or Middle East respiratory syndrome, as well as other infectious diseases, have done better in containing COVID-19.“Now all countries must develop that same muscle memory and invest in the measures that will prevent, control and mitigate the next crisis,” Tedros said. “It is also clear the global system for preparedness needs attention.”FILE – A pedestrian walks past a sign advising mask-wearing during the coronavirus outbreak in San Francisco, Nov. 21, 2020.The WHO has come in for criticism from some countries for its handling of the pandemic after China reported the first cases early this year. U.S. President Donald Trump has been one of the most vocal critics, and on May 29 announced the United States would withdraw from the global health organization. President-elect Joe Biden has said he will reverse that decision when he takes office in January.The WHO chief stressed the need for rich and poor countries alike to have equal access to a COVID-19 vaccine, saying sharing science is not charity, but in the best interest of every nation. He also urged nations to radically rethink how they prioritize and view health if they want to avoid another crisis on this scale.“The pandemic has proven that a health crisis is not just a health crisis, it’s a social, economic, political and humanitarian crisis,” he said. “The risks of under investment in health have wide-ranging impacts, and so do the benefits of investing in health.”On Friday, Bahrain became the second country to approve emergency use of the Pfilzer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine. Britain was the first nation to greenlight the vaccine.The challenge would be keeping the vaccine cold enough. It must be stored at temperatures around minus 70 degrees Celsius. Bahrain routinely registers summer temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius.Bahrain has already inoculated 6,000 people with a Chinese vaccine that uses a dead version of the virus. The Mideast nation has had nearly 88,000 cases of the coronavirus and almost 350 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.Global COVID-19 confirmed cases have surpassed 65 million with more than 1.5 million deaths. The U.S. continues to have the highest number of confirmed cases – more than 14 million so far — and nearly 279,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.  

Germany: US Troops Welcome Here

Germany’s foreign minister said Friday he is glad the U.S. Congress appears to believe U.S. troops should stay in his country at current levels. At a news briefing Friday in Berlin, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas commented on the final version of the U.S. Defense Authorization Act released Thursday by Congress. That bill says U.S. troops stationed in Germany may not be withdrawn below current levels until 120 days after the secretary of defense submits a detailed analysis of the move to Congress. About 36,000 U.S. troops are in the country. FILE – German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas addresses the media during a statement at the foreign ministry in Berlin, Germany, June 3, 2020.In July, U.S. President Donald Trump called for a reduction of about 12,000 troops stationed in Germany. Trump told reporters at the time that Germany had not contributed its share to the NATO defense alliance.  The move shocked some U.S. military officials, who see the troops as a safeguard to U.S. interests in Europe. Maas told reporters that despite comments by the president and the Defense Department in July, Germany has “never been given any information about the troop reductions that were announced in July,” so he could not say for sure what the plans are or if they even exist. But, referring to the measure agreed upon in Congress this week, he said Germany is glad there appears to be bipartisan support among U.S. lawmakers for revisiting the decision. He said his government plans to discuss the situation with the incoming administration and make it clear that Germany stands by its promises and its American allies. He said, “American soldiers are welcome here. They contribute not just to Germany’s but also to Europe’s security.”
 

Venezuela’s Maduro Seeks to Tighten His Grip Via Election

With the political opponents of President Nicolás Maduro boycotting Sunday’s election for the National Assembly, his socialist party is expected to dominate the vote, giving him control of the last major institution in Venezuela outside his grasp.The opposition contends the election is rigged and has called its own referendum to counter it. Both votes are playing out in the waning days of the Trump administration, which leaves office with Maduro firmly entrenched despite its efforts to bring about his departure through diplomacy and sanctions.By taking over the National Assembly, some experts say, Maduro’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela will effectively smother the last remnants of democracy in the country.”Everything indicates that he will achieve what he has always sought, which is to have total, authoritarian, hegemonic control of all the country’s institutions,” said Michael Shifter, president of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue.He expects U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, who has not hesitated in calling Maduro a “dictator,” to maintain a tough position against the South American leader, and even refine the strategy further, such as taking steps to work more closely with European allies.Deepening crisisOnce an oil-producing powerhouse, Venezuela has been embroiled for years in a deepening political and economic crisis. More than 5 million people have fled the country in recent years, the world’s largest migration after war-torn Syria. The International Monetary Fund projects a 25% decline this year in Venezuela’s GDP, while hyperinflation diminishes the value of its currency, the bolivar.Maduro, the handpicked successor to the late President Hugo Chávez, won a second term in 2018. But Washington and several nations accused him of fixing the outcome by banning his most popular opponents from challenging him.FILE – Opposition leader Juan Guaido arrives at the “Venezuela raises its voice” campaign rally in the Terrazas del Avila neighborhood of Caracas, Venezuela, Nov. 12, 2020.Opposition leader Juan Guaidó, 37, rose to head the National Assembly in early 2019, declaring presidential powers and vowing to oust Maduro, 58. The dramatic move sparked massive street demonstrations across Venezuela and won support from dozens of nations.The Trump administration took the lead by hitting Maduro with punishing sanctions, targeting the state-run oil firm PDVSA and cutting him off from billions of dollars annually. The U.S. Justice Department also indicted Maduro as a “narcoterrorist,” offering a $15 million reward for his arrest.But he remains in power with backing from Venezuela’s military and international support from nations like Iran, Russia, China and Cuba. Maduro’s domestic allies also control the supreme court, prosecutor’s office and elections commission.Maduro has campaigned for his party’s congressional candidates — including his son and wife — promising to finally silence the right-wing opposition, which he accuses of inciting violent protests.Ahead of the election, state TV has broadcast video of large campaign rallies with cheering crowds led by Maduro and his political allies, despite polls showing he is widely unpopular.’Five years of horror'”We’ve had to suffer under five years of horror, plots, conspiracies and failure,” Maduro said. “Our people are aware that it was a mistake to elect the opposition.”International bodies like the European Union have refused to send observers to Sunday’s election, saying the conditions for a democratic process don’t exist.Guaidó’s once-high approval rating has fallen since early last year as Venezuelans grow frustrated that the opposition hasn’t been able to topple Maduro and restore stability.Rejecting Sunday’s vote, the opposition will instead hold a referendum asking Venezuelans a series of questions to gauge support for ending Maduro’s rule, holding new elections and seeking international help in solving Venezuela’s crisis.FILE – Nicolas Maduro Guerra, son of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, campaigns for a spot in the National Assembly for the Dec. 6 midterm elections, in Maiquetía, Venezuela, Nov. 29, 2020.The referendum is being held over several days immediately following the congressional election. Venezuelans can register their votes digitally and in person in cities across Venezuela and abroad. Civil organizations are organizing it without any independent audit or observation.Guaidó is banned from television and radio broadcasts in Venezuela. Instead, he has appeared in public by talking with people waiting in long lines to buy gas or speaking to representatives of a teachers union. He urged them to take part in the referendum.Despite the boycott by the Guaidó-led coalition, a small number of opposition parties not associated with him have had dialogue with the government and are participating in the election. Critics say this will allow Maduro to maintain the semblance of a valid contest.’We have to keep fighting’Carlos Vecchio, Guaidó’s ambassador to Washington, said opposition leaders realize the risk of carrying out the referendum as once-fervent support fades and they face potential aggression from Maduro’s armed forces and roving groups of his supporters on motorcycles.”I can understand that frustration, but we have no alternative. We have to keep fighting for a transition,” Vecchio said. “I feel frustration as well.”He cited the lack of access to Venezuelan media and the Maduro government’s decision earlier this year to strip the main opposition parties of their leaders and replace them with its own representatives.Vecchio wouldn’t say whether his delegation in Washington has made contact with Biden’s incoming administration, saying they remain focused on keeping up support from both Republicans and Democrats.Elliott Abrams, the U.S. special representative to Venezuela, said the U.S. will continue to recognize the opposition lawmakers in the current National Assembly and Guaidó’s role as interim president, despite Sunday’s outcome. Without being re-elected, their term ends in early January.Abrams said he also expects broad international support for Venezuela’s opposition to remain firm, even as Maduro’s government tries to push them out of Venezuela’s political landscape.”They’ve done everything they can to make sure this is not a free election,” Abrams said. “We’re getting instead an election that doesn’t deserve to be called an election.”

UN Rights Chief Condemns Deteriorating Human Rights in Belarus

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet condemned gross violations of human rights in Belarus on Friday, calling on the government to put an end to the abusive treatment of its people.Bachelet told the U.N. Human Rights Council that conditions in Belarus have deteriorated since the council held an urgent debate on the human rights situation in September, following Belarus’ widely criticized presidential elections August 9.FILE – United Nations’ High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet adjusts her mask during the 45th session of the Human Rights Council, at the European U.N. headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, Sept. 14, 2020.More than 27,000 people have been arrested, including senior citizens participating in peaceful marches, she said, adding that penalties imposed on protesters appear to be growing more severe, with over 900 people reportedly having been treated as suspects in criminal cases. Security forces have used tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets and stun guns to disperse crowds, Bachelet said, and at least four people have been killed. “We also have multiple and credible reports of people beaten by members of the security forces during and after their transport to police stations or detention centers,” she said. “If confirmed, such incidents should constitute ill-treatment and, in some cases, may amount to torture. Moreover, masked men, without insignia or identification, have frequently taken part in the dispersal of protests, alongside riot police.” Up to 2,000 complaints of torture of people while in custody were lodged by the end of October. Such actions heighten a climate of fear and an atmosphere of lawlessness and impunity, she said. “Many people who have been detained have reported being held in overcrowded cells, without adequate ventilation — despite the risks linked to the COVID-19 pandemic — denied food, water, access to the toilet and medical treatment,” Bachelet said. “They have further reported violent and random beatings as well as acts of humiliation, insults and threats.” FILE – Belarusian law enforcement officers block opposition supporters during their rally to reject the presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus, Nov. 1, 2020.The high commissioner is calling on the government to immediately release all those unlawfully detained, to respect the right of peaceful assembly, and to ensure independent and impartial investigations into cases of alleged torture and other human rights violations. Belarus Ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva Yuri Ambrazevich accused the U.N. of distorting the situation. He said full-fledged wars have received less attention than is being directed at his country. The pressure being exerted on Belarus violates the U.N. Charter on the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state, he said, blasting the European Union for imposing sanctions on Belarus, which he said clearly violated international law. 
 

Will Erdogan Complaint About Anti-Turkish Conspiracy Become Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has complained about an international conspiracy forming against Turkey, and he says it’s attempting to frustrate his projection of Turkish power and influence abroad.Domestic and foreign critics counter that there isn’t yet a conspiracy, but if one does emerge, it largely will be due to his picking fights with his country’s neighbors, including the European Union and Turkey’s NATO allies. They are exasperated by his threats, whenever he is crossed, to throw open the doors for migrants to once again flock into Europe.Erdogan has in recent months frequently blamed invisible, malevolent foreign enemies for Turkey’s sharply deteriorating economy. For most of this year, foreign investors have shunned the country, and an already weak Turkish lira plunged last month to record lows in value against the dollar and euro. Western critics say Turkish economic woes are the result of his own mishandling of the economy.FILE PHOTO: A merchant counts Turkish lira banknotes at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Turkey, March 29, 2019.Additionally, the Turkish leader and his aides have accused European nations of ganging up to sabotage his geopolitical ambitions, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, where Ankara is locked in an escalating maritime quarrel with Greece and Cyprus that risks getting out of hand over lucrative gas and oil drilling rights.The huge energy potential of the eastern Mediterranean has drawn other powers in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East into the destabilizing standoff. Western Europeans and Turkey’s other regional neighbors say maritime law is on the side of Athens and Cyprus, accusing Ankara of brinkmanship in a deadlock that’s seen opposing warships come close to clashing.“We see ourselves as an inseparable part of Europe,” Erdogan told members of his ruling Justice and Development Party [AKP] in a speech last month. “However, this does not mean that we will bow down to overt attacks to our country and nation, veiled injustices and double standards,” he added.Civilians flee from Idlib toward the north to find safety inside Syria near the border with Turkey, Feb. 15, 2020.In October, as European criticism mounted about Turkish adventurism, including a military intervention into northern Syria aimed at dislodging Syrian Kurds, Erdogan, retorted, “Hey EU, wake up. I say it again: If you try to frame our operation as an invasion, our task is simple — we will open the doors and send 3.6 million migrants to you.”Conspiracy theories have long been a feature of cultural and political life in Turkey, certainly since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. And during his 17-year-long rule, political critics have accused Erdogan of stoking the long-held Turkish fear of being surrounded by foreign powers and beset by shadowy outside forces eager to weaken the country and to prevent it from restoring Ottoman greatness.“In fueling the current disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean, the [Turkish] leadership is using a narrative revolving around themes such as conquest—referring to the 1453 Ottoman conquest of Constantinople, today’s Istanbul—battles and wars, a huge [and undefined] foreign conspiracy, and a return to glory,” Marc Pierini, an analyst at the research group Carnegie Europe, noted in a posted commentary.Erdogan’s frequent complaint about an anti-Turkish foreign conspiracy risks turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy, warn some analysts and Western diplomats.French President Emmanuel Macron greets Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a joint news conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, Jan. 5, 2018.From a diplomatic row with NATO ally France over the enforcement of an international arms embargo on Libya, to the deployment of special forces and Ankara-paid mercenaries to the strife-torn North Africa country, from military adventurism in northern Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, to Turkey’s illegal drilling in Cypriot waters, the Turkish leader is amassing an impressive list of opponents.Ankara seems ever more willing to challenge allies and enemies alike in pursuit of a larger role on the world stage. If Western nations, and Turkey’s near neighbors, start coordinating containment strategies, it will be as a consequence of Erdogan’s aggressive aim to expand, through assertive diplomacy and military means, Turkish influence in the Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea, say Western diplomats and analysts.There are increasing signs that Turkey’s NATO partners are tiring with Erdogan’s assertive geopolitical ambitions and irredentist claims against his neighbors. “The totality of Turkey’s policies and actions have now reached a point of dangerous escalation,” according to analysts Heather Conley and Rachel Ellehuus of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a research group in Washington.They noted in a commentary for CSIS that Erdogan’s actions “substantially challenge the coherence of NATO’s collective defense posture in the Mediterranean and weaken its political cohesion.”“To avoid this,” they say, Western allies “should approach the growing instability in the Mediterranean through an integrative policy that seeks to de-escalate tensions and define, with Ankara, common interests by identifying some agreed principles to guide regional behavior.” They add: “If Turkey is unwilling to join such an initiative, greater transatlantic tensions lie ahead.”NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, left, and Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu speak to the media after their talks in Ankara, Turkey, Oct. 5, 2020.Turkey’s wrangling with allies and neighbors have increased since 2015, when Erdogan adopted as policy the so-called Blue Homeland Doctrine, originally drawn up by Turkish Admiral Cem Gurdeniz in 2006. The doctrine outlined an ambitious goal to expand Turkish influence with an aim to improve access to important energy and other economic resources. Its implementation has seen Erdogan resorting to ad hoc arrangements, reversing bilateral understandings, and backsliding on multilateral agreements and Turkish obligations to NATO—creating even greater regional instability, say critics.Despite his complaints about an anti-Turkey international conspiracy, some analysts say Erdogan has been helped by the absence of coordination between Western allies and by their circumspection.They say Western officials have held off imposing further sanctions on Turkey or enforcing sanctions that have already been announced. In July, EU foreign ministers asked the bloc’s diplomatic corps to draw up possible enforcement options for sanctions imposed on Turkey for its gas and oil drilling activities in Cypriot territorial waters and what they see as Ankara’s “gunboat diplomacy” in the eastern Mediterranean.A man reads walks past Cypriot newspaper with a front page carrying a photo montage about Turkey’s actions over Cyprus and international companies exploration for gas in the eastern Mediterranean in capital Nicosia, Cyprus, Feb. 13, 2018.Likewise, the U.S. has held back. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said Turkey’s illegal drilling in Cypriot waters is “unacceptable,” but the Trump administration hasn’t followed up with concrete action and has not yet imposed sanctions for Turkey’s recent purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, an acquisition seen as breaching Ankara’s NATO commitments.Western diplomats and analysts say there are increasing signs, though, that Turkey’s NATO partners are wary of Erdogan’s adventurism and go-it-alone strategy. Impatience is likely to build quickly next year when U.S. President-elect Joe Biden enters the White House.Erdogan clashed often with Donald Trump, but Washington backed off confronting Ankara and opted for backroom deal-making. The two leaders were at least united in antipathy toward the EU. But that won’t be the case next year, and Erdogan is likely to find himself dealing with a less forgiving U.S. leader, according to Western diplomats.FILE – Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak speaks during a conference to ease investor concerns about Turkey’s economic policy, in Istanbul, Turkey, Nov. 8, 2020.Since the U.S. election, Erdogan has shown signs he knows he will need to adjust. Hours after the U.S. election, Erdogan’s son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, resigned as Turkey’s economy minister. Albayrak had a close friendship with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.The Turkish president has also since the election vowed to launch a period of economic and legal reforms, saying he will prioritize legislation to strengthen democracy and improve human rights, an announcement widely seen as anticipating the changed circumstances in Washington. Biden has promised to host next year a global Summit for Democracy.

Greek-UAE Defense Deal Corners Turkey

Turkey is voicing concern over a new military alliance between Greece and the United Arab Emirates, warning it threatens to change the balance of power in the region. Turkey and Greece are engaged in a bitter dispute over territorial waters, as Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul

Western Frustration With Turkey Likely to Build Under Biden Administration

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has complained about an international conspiracy forming against Turkey, and he says it’s attempting to frustrate his projection of Turkish power and influence abroad.Domestic and foreign critics counter that there isn’t yet a conspiracy, but if one does emerge, it largely will be due to his picking fights with his country’s neighbors, including the European Union and Turkey’s NATO allies. They are exasperated by his threats, whenever he is crossed, to throw open the doors for migrants to once again flock into Europe.Erdogan has in recent months frequently blamed invisible, malevolent foreign enemies for Turkey’s sharply deteriorating economy. For most of this year, foreign investors have shunned the country, and an already weak Turkish lira plunged last month to record lows in value against the dollar and euro. Western critics say Turkish economic woes are the result of his own mishandling of the economy.FILE PHOTO: A merchant counts Turkish lira banknotes at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Turkey, March 29, 2019.Additionally, the Turkish leader and his aides have accused European nations of ganging up to sabotage his geopolitical ambitions, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, where Ankara is locked in an escalating maritime quarrel with Greece and Cyprus that risks getting out of hand over lucrative gas and oil drilling rights.The huge energy potential of the eastern Mediterranean has drawn other powers in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East into the destabilizing standoff. Western Europeans and Turkey’s other regional neighbors say maritime law is on the side of Athens and Cyprus, accusing Ankara of brinkmanship in a deadlock that’s seen opposing warships come close to clashing.“We see ourselves as an inseparable part of Europe,” Erdogan told members of his ruling Justice and Development Party [AKP] in a speech last month. “However, this does not mean that we will bow down to overt attacks to our country and nation, veiled injustices and double standards,” he added.Civilians flee from Idlib toward the north to find safety inside Syria near the border with Turkey, Feb. 15, 2020.In October, as European criticism mounted about Turkish adventurism, including a military intervention into northern Syria aimed at dislodging Syrian Kurds, Erdogan, retorted, “Hey EU, wake up. I say it again: If you try to frame our operation as an invasion, our task is simple — we will open the doors and send 3.6 million migrants to you.”Conspiracy theories have long been a feature of cultural and political life in Turkey, certainly since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. And during his 17-year-long rule, political critics have accused Erdogan of stoking the long-held Turkish fear of being surrounded by foreign powers and beset by shadowy outside forces eager to weaken the country and to prevent it from restoring Ottoman greatness.“In fueling the current disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean, the [Turkish] leadership is using a narrative revolving around themes such as conquest—referring to the 1453 Ottoman conquest of Constantinople, today’s Istanbul—battles and wars, a huge [and undefined] foreign conspiracy, and a return to glory,” Marc Pierini, an analyst at the research group Carnegie Europe, noted in a posted commentary.Erdogan’s frequent complaint about an anti-Turkish foreign conspiracy risks turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy, warn some analysts and Western diplomats.French President Emmanuel Macron greets Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a joint news conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, Jan. 5, 2018.From a diplomatic row with NATO ally France over the enforcement of an international arms embargo on Libya, to the deployment of special forces and Ankara-paid mercenaries to the strife-torn North Africa country, from military adventurism in northern Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, to Turkey’s illegal drilling in Cypriot waters, the Turkish leader is amassing an impressive list of opponents.Ankara seems ever more willing to challenge allies and enemies alike in pursuit of a larger role on the world stage. If Western nations, and Turkey’s near neighbors, start coordinating containment strategies, it will be as a consequence of Erdogan’s aggressive aim to expand, through assertive diplomacy and military means, Turkish influence in the Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea, say Western diplomats and analysts.There are increasing signs that Turkey’s NATO partners are tiring with Erdogan’s assertive geopolitical ambitions and irredentist claims against his neighbors. “The totality of Turkey’s policies and actions have now reached a point of dangerous escalation,” according to analysts Heather Conley and Rachel Ellehuus of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a research group in Washington.They noted in a commentary for CSIS that Erdogan’s actions “substantially challenge the coherence of NATO’s collective defense posture in the Mediterranean and weaken its political cohesion.”“To avoid this,” they say, Western allies “should approach the growing instability in the Mediterranean through an integrative policy that seeks to de-escalate tensions and define, with Ankara, common interests by identifying some agreed principles to guide regional behavior.” They add: “If Turkey is unwilling to join such an initiative, greater transatlantic tensions lie ahead.”NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, left, and Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu speak to the media after their talks in Ankara, Turkey, Oct. 5, 2020.Turkey’s wrangling with allies and neighbors have increased since 2015, when Erdogan adopted as policy the so-called Blue Homeland Doctrine, originally drawn up by Turkish Admiral Cem Gurdeniz in 2006. The doctrine outlined an ambitious goal to expand Turkish influence with an aim to improve access to important energy and other economic resources. Its implementation has seen Erdogan resorting to ad hoc arrangements, reversing bilateral understandings, and backsliding on multilateral agreements and Turkish obligations to NATO—creating even greater regional instability, say critics.Despite his complaints about an anti-Turkey international conspiracy, some analysts say Erdogan has been helped by the absence of coordination between Western allies and by their circumspection.They say Western officials have held off imposing further sanctions on Turkey or enforcing sanctions that have already been announced. In July, EU foreign ministers asked the bloc’s diplomatic corps to draw up possible enforcement options for sanctions imposed on Turkey for its gas and oil drilling activities in Cypriot territorial waters and what they see as Ankara’s “gunboat diplomacy” in the eastern Mediterranean.A man reads walks past Cypriot newspaper with a front page carrying a photo montage about Turkey’s actions over Cyprus and international companies exploration for gas in the eastern Mediterranean in capital Nicosia, Cyprus, Feb. 13, 2018.Likewise, the U.S. has held back. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said Turkey’s illegal drilling in Cypriot waters is “unacceptable,” but the Trump administration hasn’t followed up with concrete action and has not yet imposed sanctions for Turkey’s recent purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, an acquisition seen as breaching Ankara’s NATO commitments.Western diplomats and analysts say there are increasing signs, though, that Turkey’s NATO partners are wary of Erdogan’s adventurism and go-it-alone strategy. Impatience is likely to build quickly next year when U.S. President-elect Joe Biden enters the White House.Erdogan clashed often with Donald Trump, but Washington backed off confronting Ankara and opted for backroom deal-making. The two leaders were at least united in antipathy toward the EU. But that won’t be the case next year, and Erdogan is likely to find himself dealing with a less forgiving U.S. leader, according to Western diplomats.FILE – Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak speaks during a conference to ease investor concerns about Turkey’s economic policy, in Istanbul, Turkey, Nov. 8, 2020.Since the U.S. election, Erdogan has shown signs he knows he will need to adjust. Hours after the U.S. election, Erdogan’s son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, resigned as Turkey’s economy minister. Albayrak had a close friendship with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law.The Turkish president has also since the election vowed to launch a period of economic and legal reforms, saying he will prioritize legislation to strengthen democracy and improve human rights, an announcement widely seen as anticipating the changed circumstances in Washington. Biden has promised to host next year a global Summit for Democracy.