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Britain on Friday marked one year since the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. As Henry Ridgwell reports from London, polls show her successor, King Charles III, faces a challenge to keep the monarchy relevant and popular among younger generations. Camera: Henry Ridgwell.
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An international team of at least 150 rescuers gathered at a Turkish cave Friday and prepared to try to bring out a U.S. explorer who fell ill nearly a week ago while exploring more than 1,000 meters underground.

Mark Dickey, 40, was exploring Morca Cave near Anamur, Turkey, in the Taurus Mountains with a team of about 12 others last Saturday when he fell ill with what was determined to be internal bleeding.

At a depth of 1,040 meters, Dickey was unable to climb out on his own. The Turkish Caving Federation said the team alerted the European Cave Rescue Association.

A Hungarian rescue team that includes a doctor reached Dickey this week, was able to get him medicine and blood infusions, and was monitoring him at a base camp.

Dickey appeared in a video message that the rescuers recorded and released Friday. He appeared to be in good spirits but said he “was not healed on the inside yet” and would need a lot of help climbing out of the cave.

The head of the Turkish search-and-rescue team, Recep Salci, told the Reuters news agency Friday that Dickey was stable enough to be moved but that the operation would likely take several days.

Salci said that getting to Dickey’s location involves many narrow passages and descents where a rope must be used. Some areas can be accessed only by crawling.

Salci said it takes a healthy caver 12 hours to get down to the location and 16 hours to climb up. He said some areas would require explosives to widen.

Salci said many of the operations were already being carried out.

In his video message, Dickey thanked the Turkish government and others who reached him initially with medical supplies, which he said saved his life. He also thanked the international community of cave explorers who have responded.

The European Cave Rescue Association said teams from Turkey, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy and Poland arrived at the scene over the course of the last week. How long the rescue mission will take depends on whether Dickey will require a stretcher on the way out, Werner Zegler, the association’s vice president, told VOA in an interview.

Zegler estimated that it would take three or four days if Dickey did not need a stretcher and up to two weeks if he did. According to Zegler, there were more than 100 rescuers on site. If initial extraction efforts fail, more might be necessary, he said.

Ivana Konstantinovic of VOA’s Serbian Service contributed to this report. Some information came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse.
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London’s Metropolitan Police on Friday reported the first confirmed sighting of a terror suspect who escaped Wednesday from a London medium-security prison and is now the subject of a nationwide manhunt. 

A former British soldier, 21-year-old Daniel Abed Khalife, is believed to have escaped from HMP Wandsworth by leaving the prison kitchen, where he was working, and fastening himself to the bottom of a food delivery van. 

In a release, the Metropolitan Police said they received information from a member of the public who said they saw a man fitting Khalife’s description walking away from a food delivery van that had stopped not far from the prison shortly after his escape. The man was then seen walking toward Wandsworth town center.

London police also confirmed Friday they were carrying out an extensive search of Richmond Park in London’s southwest. The search included 150 officers, The Independent newspaper reports, quoting Metropolitan Pollice Commissioner Mark Rowl.

Discharged from the British army in May, Khalife was awaiting trial on offenses related to terrorism and violations of the Official Secrets Act. He is accused of planting fake bombs at an army base in England and, the BBC reported, collecting sensitive personal information about soldiers from a British Defense Ministry database. 

He is also charged with obtaining information that might be “directly or indirectly useful to an enemy.” The BBC reported that enemy was Iran. Khalife has denied the charges.

British Justice Minister Alex Chalk briefed Parliament on the escape Thursday and promised an immediate investigation into the prison’s protocols and the decision about where Khalife was held. He said a second independent investigation will take place at a later date.

“No stone must be left unturned in getting to the bottom of what happened,” Chalk said.

Some information in this report was provided by Reuters and The Associated Press. 
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Rescue crews have begun airlifting hundreds of people trapped in dozens of Greek hamlets after four days of cataclysmic rainfall left at least 7 people dead and an unknown number missing.

Rains from Daniel, the worst storm to hit Greece in 75 years, turned small streets in the country’s farming heartland of Thessaly into waterways that uprooted village huts. Rivers swelled, dams burst, and bridges broke.

Hardest hit has been the region of Karditsa, where six people, all elderly women and shepherds, were found under mounds of debris, washed away by floodwaters in their attempt to evacuate their homes. 

Officially, six people remain missing, but locals and crew contacted by VOA predict greater numbers. In the village of Palamas alone, on the outskirts of Karditsa, residents phoning into local TV stations spoke of more than 60 villagers missing on Friday.

Authorities liken the storm to what they call a “biblical catastrophe,” placing several parts of the Thessaly plain in a state of emergency, and allowing the country’s military to be called in to help on Thursday.

But by then, Daniel had wreaked unprecedented damage, and left the nation angry about the government’s delayed response. 

Emergency services on Friday were seen using divers, lifeboats and 80 all-weather military helicopters to reach stranded people across Thessaly, mainly in Karditsa.

Sofia, an elderly woman who managed to escape to a relative’s home, described the horror of her ordeal.

“I was left on the rooftop of my home for days before someone came with a plastic life raft and helped me down,” she said. “I would have drowned, because the water had reached 2 meters high.”

Like thousands of others in the region, Sofia said she received no notification to evacuate and seek safety on higher ground. 

“I am left with nothing. Zero,” she said. “The government now has to help us.”

Other farmers, including Christos Theodoropoulos, are mad.

“Nothing is left. Nothing,” he shouted. “No official has come to help us. I am embarrassed that this is 2023 and this has happened.”

In 2020, the region was hit by a ferocious cyclone. 

But since then, locals say authorities have failed to build necessary infrastructure to shield the region — leaving it, thousands of residents and livestock at the mercy of nature.  
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Friday marks the first anniversary of the death of England’s Queen Elizabeth.  She died a year ago at her beloved Balmoral Castle in Scotland at age 96.  

Upon her death, her son, Charles, immediately became king.  

Charles says he and his wife, Camilla, will spend the day quietly at the Scottish royal castle.  

“In marking the first anniversary of Her late Majesty’s death and my Accession, we recall with great affection her long life, devoted service and all she meant to so many of us,” King Charles posted in an online statement.  

On the anniversary of her death, the royal family shared a rarely-seen photograph of the queen taken in 1968 by famed photographer Cecil Beaton. The photo had previously appeared in an exhibition of Beaton’s photographs. 
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It’s never been easy for the leaders of the world’s largest economies to find common ground, but Russia’s war on Ukraine has made it even harder for the Group of 20 meeting to reach meaningful agreements this year.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this year’s host, has pledged Ukraine won’t overshadow his focus on the needs developing nations in the so-called Global South, but the war has proved hard to ignore.

“New Delhi will not want to distract from the main agenda, which is to address issues of concern for the Global South,” said Nazia Hussain, an associate research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

“So while there will be discussions on the emerging issues as a fallout of the war — supply chain security and decoupling, energy security, and food supply — the focus must remain on how to mitigate the fallout rather than debate the geopolitical/security aspects of the war.”

As leaders began arriving Friday, Indian diplomats were still trying to find compromise language for a joint communique.

Russia and China, which has been Moscow’s most important supporter in the war against Ukraine, have rejected drafts over a reference to Ukraine that said “most members strongly condemned the war,” the same language they signed off a year ago at the G20 summit in Bali

The European Union, meanwhile, has said compromise language suggested by India is not strong enough for them to agree to, while the U.K. said that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak planned to press G20 members to take a tougher line against Russia’s invasion.

Ending the summit without a communique would underscore how strained relations are among the world’s major powers.

European Council President Charles Michel told reporters Friday that it was important to give India space as it worked “actively, maybe sometimes discreetly, to maximize the chance for a communique.”

He said Russia had isolated itself from the world with the invasion of Ukraine, and that the EU and others were working to “encourage China to play a positive role at the global level and to defend the UN charter and to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Bali summit by video last year, but Modi has made a point of not inviting Ukraine to participate in this year’s event.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised Zelenskyy to keep Ukraine in the discussions, telling him in a video call that the leaders posted on Instagram: “I’m disappointed that you won’t be included but as you know, we will be speaking up strongly for you.”

Founded in 1999, the G20 was initially a response to global economic challenges, but since then, geopolitical tensions have introduced more politics into the discussions, complicating its ability to work effectively, said Ian Lesser, vice president of the German Marshall Fund and director of its Brussels office.

The G20 encompasses the world’s wealthiest countries in the Group of Seven, including the U.S., Canada, Britain, Japan, Germany and the European Union as a bloc, along with Russia, China and others.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine and China’s growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region have added friction, pitting some of the most powerful G20 countries directly against each other diplomatically, Lesser said.

“Having China and Russia in the room now is a very different question than it would have been a decade ago,” he said. “It is very difficult now for any of these large-scale summits to avoid the major issues of the issues of the day, and these major issues are very polarizing — the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Indo-Pacific, even climate policy — the things that are both at the top of the global agenda but also very difficult to address.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will not be attending the G20 themselves, instead sending lower-level officials.

Russia and China did not indicate why their leaders were not attending, but neither have traveled much recently and both seem to be putting a greater emphasis on the more like-minded BRICS group of nations: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. That group agreed at its summit last month to expand to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia.

China’s relations with India continue to be strained over ongoing border disputes, but despite the decision to send Premier Li Qiang instead of Xi, Modi and Xi did discuss the issue face-to-face at the BRICS summit and China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing considers India-China relations “generally stable.”

India also has historic ties with Moscow, but is on good terms with the U.S. too. Modi is hoping to use his country’s influence to bridge gaps between the wealthy nations that have been standing together to sanction Russia over the Ukraine war and the Global South.

About half of the G20 countries are found in the Global South — depending on how one defines it — and Modi hopes to add the African Union as a bloc member.

In preparation, he held a virtual “Voice of the Global South” summit in January and has emphasized issues critical to developing nations, including alternative fuels like hydrogen, resource efficiency, developing a common framework for digital public infrastructure and food security.

“For the Global South, India’s presidency is seen as an opportunity with immense potential to address developmental needs, particularly as Brazil and South Africa are set to take over the presidency of the G20 from India in 2024 in 2025 respectively,” Hussain said.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters before Biden’s departure that the president supported adding the African Union as a permanent member and that the president hoped this summit “will show that the world’s major economies can work together even in challenging times.”

The U.S. will also focus on many of Modi’s priorities, including reforming multilateral development banks, especially the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, to help developing countries, Sullivan said. Biden will also call for “meaningful debt relief” for low- and middle-income countries, and seek to make progress on other priorities including climate and health issues.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday dismissed suggestions that the proposals are designed to counter China’s global lending and investment through its so-called Belt and Road Initiative.

Michel, the EU council president, said he had hope the summit would be productive.

“I do not think the G20 will resolve in two days all the problems of the world,” he said. “But I think it can be a bold step in the right direction and we should work to make it happen and support the Indian presidency.”
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Russian authorities are holding local elections this weekend in occupied parts of Ukraine in an effort to tighten their grip on territories Moscow illegally annexed a year ago and still does not fully control.

The voting for Russian-installed legislatures in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions has already begun and concludes Sunday. It has been denounced by Kyiv and the West.

“It constitutes a flagrant violation of international law, which Russia continues to disregard,” the Council of Europe, the continent’s foremost human rights body, said this week.

Kyiv echoed that sentiment, with the parliament saying in a statement that the balloting in areas where Russia “conducts active hostilities” poses a threat to Ukrainian lives. Lawmakers urged other countries not to recognize the results of the vote.

For Russia — which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine 18 months ago — it is important to go on with the voting to maintain the illusion of normalcy, despite the fact that the Kremlin does not have full control over the annexed regions, political analyst Abbas Gallyamov said.

“The Russian authorities are trying hard to pretend that everything is going according to plan, everything is fine. And if everything is going according to plan, then the political process should go according to plan,” said Gallyamov, who worked as a speechwriter for Russian President Vladimir Putin when Putin served as prime minister.

Voters are supposed to elect regional legislatures, which in turn will appoint regional governors. In the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, thousands of candidates are also competing for seats on dozens of local councils.

The balloting is scheduled for the same weekend as other local elections in Russia. In the occupied regions, early voting kicked off last week as election officials went door to door or set up makeshift polling stations in public places to attract passersby.

The main contender in the election is United Russia, the Putin-loyal party that dominates Russian politics, although other parties, such as the Communist Party and the nationalist Liberal Democratic party, are also on the ballots.

For some residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, large swaths of which have been held by Russian-backed separatists since 2014, there is nothing unusual about the vote.

“For the last nine years, we’ve been striving to get closer with Russia, and Russian politicians are well-known to us,” Sergei, a 47-year-old resident of the occupied city of Luhansk, told The Associated Press, asking that his last name be withheld for security reasons. “We’re speaking Russian and have felt like part of Russia for a long time, and these elections only confirm that.”

Some voters in Donetsk shared Sergei’s sentiment, expressing love for Russia and saying they want to be part of it.

The picture appears bleaker in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Local residents and Ukrainian activists say poll workers make house calls accompanied by armed soldiers, and most voters know little about the candidates, up to half of whom reportedly arrived from Russia — including remote regions in Siberia and the far east.

“In most cases, we don’t know these Russian candidates, and we’re not even trying to figure it out,” said Konstantin, who currently lives in the Russian-held part of the Kherson region on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River.

Using only his first name for safety reasons, Konstantin said in a phone interview that billboards advertising Russian political parties have sprung up along the highways, and сampaign workers have been bused in ahead of the vote.

But “locals understand that these elections don’t influence anything” and “are held for Russian propaganda purposes,” Kostantin said, comparing this year’s vote to the referendums Moscow staged last year in the four partially occupied regions.

Those referendums were designed to put a veneer of democracy on the annexation. Ukraine and the West denounced them as a sham and decried the annexation as illegal.

Weeks after the referendums, Russian troops withdrew from the city of Kherson, the capital of the region of the same name, and areas around it, ceding them back to Ukraine. As a result, Moscow has maintained control of about 70% of the region.

Three other regions are also only partially occupied, and Kyiv’s forces have managed to regain more land — albeit slowly and in small chunks — during their summer counteroffensive.

In the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region, where the counteroffensive efforts are focused, Moscow-installed authorities declared a holiday on Friday for the voting.

The Russian-appointed governor of the annexed region, Yevgeny Balitsky, noted in a recent statement that 13 front-line cities and villages in the region come under regular shelling, but he expressed hope that despite the difficulties, the United Russia party “will get the result it deserves.”

Ivan Fyodorov, Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, a Russian-held city in the Zaporizhzhia region, told The Associated Press that local residents are effectively being forced to vote.

“When there’s an armed person standing in front of you, it’s hard to say no,” he said.

Early in the war, Fyodorov was kidnapped by Russian troops and held in captivity. He moved to Ukrainian-controlled territory upon release.

There are four different parties on the ballot, the mayor said, but billboards advertise only one — United Russia. “It looks like the Russian authorities know the result (of the election) already,” Fyodorov said.

The city’s population of 60,000 — down from 149,000 before the war — has been subject to enhanced security in the days leading up to the election, according to Fyodorov. Authorities stop people in the streets to check their identification documents and detain anyone who looks suspicious, he said.

“People are intimidated and scared, because everyone understands that an election in an occupied city is like voting in prison,” Fyodorov said.

Russian authorities aim to have up to 80% of the population take part in the early voting, according to the Eastern Human Rights Group, a Ukrainian rights group that monitors the vote in the occupied territories.

Poll workers go door to door — to markets, grocery stores and other public places — to get people to cast ballots. Both those who have gotten Russian citizenship and those still holding Ukrainian passports are allowed to vote.

Those who refuse to vote are being detained for three or four hours, the group’s coordinator, Pavlo Lysianskyi, said. The authorities make them “write an explanatory statement, which later becomes grounds for a criminal case against the person.”

Lysianskyi’s group has counted at least 104 cases of Ukrainians being detained in occupied regions for refusing to take part in the vote.

In the end, Gallyamov, the Russian analyst, said Russian authorities will not get “anything good in terms of boosting their legitimacy” in the occupied regions.
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Rescuers from across Europe rushed to a cave in Turkey on Thursday, launching an operation to save an American researcher who became trapped almost 1,000 meters below the cave’s entrance after suffering stomach bleeding.

Experienced caver Mark Dickey, 40, suddenly became ill during an expedition with a handful of others, including three other Americans, in the Morca cave in southern Turkey’s Taurus Mountains, the European Association of Cave Rescuers said.

While rescuers, including a Hungarian doctor, have reached and treated Dickey, it could be days and possibly weeks before they are able to get him out of the cave, which is too narrow in places for a stretcher to pass through.

In a video message from inside the cave and made available Thursday by Turkey’s communications directorate, Dickey thanked the caving community and the Turkish government for their efforts.

“The caving world is a really tight-knit group and it’s amazing to see how many people have responded on the surface,” said Dickey. ” … I do know that the quick response of the Turkish government to get the medical supplies that I need, in my opinion, saved my life. I was very close to the edge.”

Dickey, who is seen standing and moving around in the video, said that while he is alert and talking, he is not “healed on the inside” and will need a lot of help to get out of the cave. Doctors will decide whether he will need to leave the cave on a stretcher or if he can leave under his own power.

Dickey, who had been bleeding and losing fluid from his stomach, has stopped vomiting and has eaten for the first time in days, according to a New Jersey-based cave rescue group he’s affiliated with. It’s unclear what caused his medical issue.

The New Jersey Initial Response Team said the rescue will require many teams and constant medical care. The group says the cave is also quite cold — about 4-6 degrees Celsius.

Communication with Dickey takes about five to seven hours and is carried out by runners, who go from Dickey to the camp below the surface where a telephone line to speak with the surface has been set up.

Experts said it will be a challenge to successfully rescue Dickey.

Yusuf Ogrenecek of the Speleological Federation of Turkey said that one of the most difficult tasks of cave rescue operations is widening the narrow cave passages to allow stretcher lines to pass through at low depths.

Stretcher lines are labor intensive and require experienced cave rescuers working long hours, Ogrenecek said. He added that other difficult factors range from navigating through mud and water at low temperatures to the psychological toll of staying inside a cave for long periods of time.

Marton Kovacs of the Hungarian Cave Rescue Service said that the cave is being prepared for Dickey’s safe extraction. Passages are being widened and the danger of falling rocks is also being addressed.

Turkish disaster relief agency AFAD and rescue team UMKE are working with Turkish and international cavers on the plan to hoist Dickey out of the cave system, the European Cave Rescue Association said.

The rescue effort currently involves more than 170 people, including doctors, paramedics who are tending to Dickey and experienced cavers, Ogrenecek said, adding that the rescue operation could take up to two to three weeks.

The operation includes rescue teams from Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Turkey.

Dickey was described by the association as “a highly trained caver and a cave rescuer himself” who is well known as a cave researcher, or speleologist, from his participation in many international expeditions. He is secretary of the association’s medical committee.

Dickey was on an expedition mapping the 1,276-meter-deep Morca cave system for the Anatolian Speleology Group Association (ASPEG) when he ran into trouble about 1,000 meters down, according to Ogrenecek. He initially became ill on Saturday, but it took until Sunday morning to notify others who were above ground.

Justin Hanley, a 28-year-old firefighter from near Dallas, Texas, said he met Dickey a few months ago when he took a cave rescue course Dickey taught in Hungary and Croatia. He described Dickey as upbeat and as someone who sees the good in everyone.

“Mark is the guy that should be on that rescue mission that’s leading and consulting and for him to be the one that needs to be rescued is kind of a tragedy in and of itself,” he said.

A team of rescuers from Italy’s National Alpine and Speleological Rescue Team will be flying to Turkey on Thursday night. A total of around 50 rescuers will be at the entrance of the cave early Friday ready to participate in the operation directed by Turkish authorities.

The rescue teams hope that the extraction can begin on Saturday or Sunday. Kovacs said that lifting Dickey will likely take several days, and that several bivouac points are being prepared along the way so that Dickey and rescue teams can rest.

The cave has been divided into several sections, with each country’s rescue team being responsible for one section.

The Hungarian Cave Rescue Service, made up of volunteer rescuers, was the first to arrive at Dickey’s location and provided emergency blood transfusions to stabilize his condition. 
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South Korean officials say North Korea has likely been invited to join Russia and China for the first time in trilateral naval exercises that experts see as a response to the newly cemented strategic cooperation among South Korea, Japan and the United States.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is believed to have proposed the joint naval drills during a visit to Pyongyang in July, according to South Korean lawmaker Yoo Sang-bum. Yoo said National Intelligence Service Director Kim Kyou-hyun briefed about the proposal at a closed-door meeting on Monday.

China and Russia have held annual joint naval exercises for over a decade, but this would mark the first time that North Korea has been invited to participate. The development followed reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this month to discuss possible weapons transfers.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a press briefing on Thursday that she did not have information about the proposed drills with Russia and North Korea.

David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, told VOA the proposal for naval drills appeared to be “a direct response” to what he called “JAROKUS,” or “the new Japan-ROK-US security arrangement,” using an acronym for South Korea’s official name, the Republic of Korea.

He said that arrangement, sealed at a mid-August summit at the Camp David presidential retreat outside Washington, is “arguably the most important security arrangement in Northeast Asia in the 21st century and probably in the last seven decades.”

‘Authoritarian axis’

Maxwell said members of the Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang “authoritarian axis” may also feel a need to counter other U.S.-led security alliances, including AUKUS (Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.), the QUAD (Australia, India, Japan and the U.S.) and NATO.

The United States, South Korea and Japan have conducted several joint ballistic missile defense drills of their own this year in response to North Korea’s missile launches.

At Camp David, the three countries agreed to hold annual multidomain trilateral exercises and exchange real-time missile warning data. They also committed to consult as necessary on military responses to common threats.

Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, said joint drills by Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang “will be pretty preliminary” in the beginning as the three militaries learn how to share information and communicate with each other.

“That doesn’t mean that’s where they’re going to end,” he said. “This would be the beginning of a whole sequence of naval drills and ground and air drills” in which the countries would most likely cooperate.

China and Russia have held annual naval drills since 2012, according to the Chinese Defense Ministry. The militaries of the two countries began training together in 2005, and in 2018, Beijing sent its ground troops and aircraft to join Russia’s Vostok exercises, according to the RAND Corporation.

In July, Beijing and Moscow held Northern/Interaction-2023 military exercises in the Sea of Japan. It was the first drill they had conducted near Japan.

Reports of the trilateral naval drills came just days before Kim is expected to travel to Russia’s far eastern port city of Vladivostok to attend the September 10-13 Eastern Economic Forum. While there, he is expected to meet Putin to discuss potential arms deliveries.

The New York Times, citing U.S. and allied officials on Monday, said Putin is likely to ask Kim for artillery shells and antitank missiles for use in his war in Ukraine, while Kim will probably ask for satellite technology and nuclear-powered submarines.

On Friday in North Korea, the state-run KCNA news agency said the country had held a “submarine-launching ceremony” on Wednesday that it said would bolster its naval force. Kim said equipping the navy with nuclear weapons is an urgent task as he inspected what KCNA described as tactical nuclear submarine “Hero Kim Kun Ok” on Thursday.

Assist to Russian army

Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, said the North Korean weapons could “help the Russian army persevere in a primarily stalemated war in Ukraine.”

But even without the North Korean weapons, he said, Putin is likely to benefit from the trilateral naval drills because they would “help divert international attention from Ukraine” by “elevating security concerns for the United States and its allies in Asia.”

Mao, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said at a press briefing on Thursday that the potential arms negotiations between Moscow and Pyongyang are matters that relate to the two countries, and she declined to comment further.

But other experts said China also stands to benefit from anything that prolongs the war in Ukraine.

“The upside for Beijing … is that it depletes U.S. weapons stockpiles and makes it harder for the U.S. to fulfill weapons commitments to Taiwan,” said Dennis Wilder, who served as the National Security Council director for China in 2004-05.

“It also keeps significant U.S. forces focused on Europe and away from the Indo-Pacific,” he said.

Bennett at RAND said the U.S. and its allies had “depleted a lot of our weapons stocks, sending them off to Ukraine without adequately replacing anything.”

“We no longer have a two-major-theater war capability,” he said. “What do we do if all of a sudden we have three major wars?” including the war in Ukraine and potential conflicts over Taiwan and in the Korean Peninsula.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at a press briefing Tuesday that Russia’s weapons were depleted as well.

Describing Russia’s outreach to North Korea as an act of desperation, he said Moscow finds it necessary only because the U.S. and its allies “have continued to squeeze Russia’s defense industrial base.”
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, are pledging deeper economic cooperation as the list of international sanctions on Russia grows. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.
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The United Kingdom pledged on Thursday to find the former army soldier suspected of terrorism who escaped from prison by hiding under a food delivery van.

Daniel Abed Khalife is believed to have escaped from a medium-security London prison on Wednesday by leaving the prison kitchen where he was working and fastening himself to the bottom of a van.

“Daniel Khalife will be found, and he will be made to face justice,” U.K. Justice Minister Alex Chalk told parliament on Thursday.

The 21-year-old terrorist suspect is now the subject of a nationwide manhunt, which includes enhanced security checks at ports and airports. But as of Thursday evening in the U.K., police said there had not been any confirmed sightings of Khalife.

Discharged from the British army in May, the former soldier was awaiting trial on offenses related to terrorism and the Official Secrets Act.

Khalife is accused of planting fake bombs at an army base in England and collecting sensitive personal information about soldiers from a U.K. Defense Ministry database. He is also accused of gathering information for Iran, the BBC reported.

Khalife denied all the charges against him.

At parliament on Thursday, Chalk also said there would be an immediate investigation into the prison’s protocols and the decision about where Khalife was held. A second independent investigation will take place at a later date, Chalk said.

“No stone must be left unturned in getting to the bottom of what happened,” Chalk said.

More than 150 investigators and police staff are on the case, according to Metropolitan Police Commander Dominic Murphy, who is the lead investigator.

Some information in this report came from Reuters and The Associated Press.
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The United States and Britain on Thursday sanctioned 11 people who are part of the Russia-based Trickbot cybercrime hacking group, accusing it of targeting critical government infrastructure and businesses, along with hospitals, during the coronavirus pandemic.

A U.S. Treasury statement said the blacklisted targets included “key actors involved in management and procurement” for Trickbot, which it said has ties to Russian intelligence services.

Treasury undersecretary Brian Nelson said in a statement, “The United States is resolute in our efforts to combat ransomware and respond to disruptions of our critical infrastructure.”

Ransomware refers to the demand for payments to unlock computer services that cybercriminals have frozen.

British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said the sanctions are an attempt to disrupt Trickbot’s business model and strip officials of their anonymity.

“We know who they are and what they are doing,” he said in a statement. 

British officials said the Trickbot group had extorted at least $180 million from people around the world to restore their computer services.

In conjunction with the sanctions, which block any assets the Trickbot officials have in the United States and Britain, the U.S. Justice Department unsealed indictments against nine individuals in the gang.

The U.S. said that in one instance, the Trickbot group used ransomware against three medical facilities in the midwestern state of Minnesota, “disrupting their computer networks and telephones, and causing a diversion of ambulances.”

The U.S. said Trickbot workers “publicly gloated over the ease of targeting the medical facilities and the speed in which ransoms had been paid to the group.” 
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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited a Ukrainian border guard site on the outskirts of Kyiv Thursday as he opened the final day of an unannounced two-day visit.

The tour included presenting four U.S.-provided mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles that are part of a group of 190 of the vehicles to be delivered in coming months.

Blinken also met with a Ukrainian team working to clear unexploded Russian ordnance at a farm where corn was grown for export.

“What’s hard to get our minds around is that one third of Ukrainian territory has mines or unexploded ordnance on it,” Blinken said.  

“Your work is having a profound impact on the lives of Ukrainians and on people around the world,” he said, noting Ukraine’s importance to global food supply.

Blinken Wednesday announced $1 billion in new U.S. aid for Ukraine, with $175 million in security aid that includes additional air defense equipment, artillery munitions, anti-tank weapons including depleted uranium rounds for previously committed Abrams tanks, and other equipment.

Asked whether he is concerned about sustaining support for that level of U.S. aid among American citizens and lawmakers, Blinken was optimistic.

“I was last here almost exactly a year ago,” he said. “And in that time, in the year since I was last here, Ukraine has taken back more than 50% of the territory that Russia has seized from it since February 2022. In the current counteroffensive, we are seeing real progress over the last few weeks.”

Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba said what is being decided in this war is not just about Ukraine, but about what the world is going to look like after the war is over. If Russia wins, other autocrats will be empowered to invade their neighbors, he said, asking, ‘If the West cannot win this war, what war can they win?”

However, on Capitol Hill, one Republican senator expressed concerns to VOA, saying he would like to see a definitive strategy from the Biden administration for Ukraine to win the war.

“I’d like to see an announcement coming from all the NATO members saying that they are willing to step up. … I just got back from a trip to Europe, and we encouraged our NATO allies to actually step up their game, and I would like to see that happen,” Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said.

The United States is the largest donor of military aid to Ukraine in total dollars. Other countries, including Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic, are making larger financial contributions to Ukraine relative to the size of their own economies, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany.

Some information in this report was provided by VOA congressional correspondent Katherine Gypson.
…

Britain is rejoining the European Union’s science-sharing program Horizon Europe, the two sides announced Thursday, more than two years after membership became a casualty of Brexit.

British scientists expressed relief at the decision, the latest sign of thawing relations between the EU and its former member.

After months of negotiations, the British government said the country was becoming a “fully associated member” of the research collaboration body. U.K.-based scientists can bid for Horizon funding starting Thursday and will be able to lead Horizon-backed science projects starting in 2024. Britain is also rejoining Copernicus, the EU space program’s Earth observation component.

“The EU and U.K. are key strategic partners and allies, and today’s agreement proves that point,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who signed off on the deal during a call with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday. “We will continue to be at the forefront of global science and research.”

The EU blocked Britain from Horizon during a feud over trade rules for Northern Ireland, the only part of the U.K. that shares a border with an EU member, the Republic of Ireland.

The two sides struck a deal to ease those tensions in February, but Horizon negotiations have dragged on over details of how much the U.K. will pay for its membership.

Sunak said he had struck the “right deal for British taxpayers.” The U.K. will not have to pay for the period it was frozen out of Horizon.

Relations between Britain and the bloc were severely tested during the long divorce negotiations that followed Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the EU. The divorce became final in 2020 with the agreement of a bare-bones trade and cooperation deal, but relations chilled still further under strongly pro-Brexit U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Johnson’s government introduced a bill that would let it unilaterally rip up parts of the Brexit agreement, a move the EU called illegal.

Johnson left office amid scandal in mid-2022, and Sunak’s government has quietly worked to improve Britain’s relationship with its European neighbors, though trade friction and deep-rooted mistrust still linger.

British scientists, who feared Brexit would hurt international research collaboration, breathed sighs of relief at the Horizon deal.

“This is an essential step in rebuilding and strengthening our global scientific standing,” said Paul Nurse, director of the Francis Crick Institute for biomedical research. “Thank you to the huge number of researchers in the U.K. and across Europe who, over many years, didn’t give up on stressing the importance of international collaboration for science.”

The U.K.’s opposition Labour Party welcomed the deal but said Britain had already missed out on “two years’ worth of innovation.”

“Two years of global companies looking around the world for where to base their research centers and choosing other countries than Britain, because we are not part of Horizon,” said Labour science spokesman Peter Kyle. “This is two years of wasted opportunity for us as a country.”
…

The Ukrainian military said Thursday its air defenses destroyed 25 of 33 drones that Russia used to attack the Sumy and Odesa regions overnight.  

Oleh Kiper, the regional governor of Odesa, said the Russian attack hit the Izmail area for the fourth time in five days, injuring one person.

Kiper said the attack also damaged port infrastructure facilities and an administrative building.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it destroyed two Ukrainian drones over the Rostov region, as well as one in Bryansk and another on the outskirts of Moscow.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram that debris from a downed drone landed in the Ramensky district but did not cause any damage or casualties.  

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy introduced new Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on Thursday, saying “transparency and trust” are a priority.

Zelenskyy said he wants Umerov to “strengthen the ministry’s strategic and coordination functions for the entire defense sector, prioritize individual warriors and cut red tape, develop international cooperation and ensure Ukraine completes its NATO accession homework, and scale up the successes of specific units for all of our defense forces.”

Zelenskyy picked Umerov to replace Oleksii Reznikov, who helped secure Western military aid in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion.  The leadership shakeup followed allegations of corruption at the Defense Ministry, which Reznikov dismissed as a smear campaign.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told the European Parliament on Thursday that Ukrainian forces are gradually gaining ground and breaching Russian defenses in their counteroffensive.  He pushed back against critics who say the counteroffensive has not been successful, citing the unpredictable nature of war and the need to stand by Ukraine through both good days and bad. 

“To support Ukraine is not an option, it is a necessity to ensure that to preserve peace for our members, for our countries, and to ensure that authoritarian regimes [don’t] achieve what they want by violating international law and using military force,” Stoltenberg said.

The NATO chief also said he expects Turkey’s parliament to ratify Sweden’s accession to the alliance “as soon as possible” when lawmakers reconvene in October.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters. 
…

Russia is criticizing a new U.S. aid package for Ukraine that includes depleted uranium tank ammunition, saying the decision to send the rounds “is a clear sign of inhumanity.”

Russia’s embassy in Washington said on Telegram Wednesday that the United States is “deliberately transferring weapons with indiscriminate effects” and that it is fully aware of potential health and safety consequences from the ammunition.

The tank rounds could help Ukrainian forces destroy Russian tanks and have previously been provided to Ukraine by Britain.

Pentagon spokesperson Marine Corps Lt. Col. Garron Garn defended the use of the munitions in a statement to The Associated Press in March, saying the U.S. military “has procured, stored, and used depleted uranium rounds for several decades, since these are a longstanding element of some conventional munitions.”

Garn said Russia is among the countries that have long possessed depleted uranium rounds.

The U.N. Office for Disarmament Affairs says depleted uranium is the main byproduct of uranium enrichment, and that because of its high density it is used in munitions designed to penetrate armor plating.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said multiple evaluations of areas where depleted uranium munitions have been used “indicated that the existence of depleted uranium residues dispersed in the environment does not pose a radiological hazard to the population of the affected regions.”

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters. 
…

After hitting several resets, restoring historic treasures to former colonies, downsizing its military presence and striking new ties elsewhere on the continent, France’s Africa strategy seems at an impasse, some experts say.

Coups in half a dozen former French colonies in West and Central Africa over three years — including two, in Niger and Gabon, in just over a month — are sparking fresh soul searching about what went wrong and how, if possible, to put longstanding relations and interests back on track. 

Yet many suggest Paris can no longer call the shots, as some African governments cut ties altogether and carve new ones with foreign rivals, including Russia. 

“French influence in the Sahel has collapsed,” wrote France’s influential Le Monde newspaper this past week. “Elsewhere on the continent, it is on the defensive, and nothing Paris says can restore it.” 

That assessment comes as the paper and other media report that discussions between Paris and Niger’s military are under way about the withdrawal of some military elements from the African country.

Until now, French authorities have refused to recognize the military junta that seized power in Niger in late July, dismissing calls for its ambassador and 1,500 French troops stationed there to depart. 

The power grab in Niamey followed a now-familiar playbook. Not so long ago, Niger, along with neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, cooperated closely with Paris in a broader Sahel alliance fighting a jihadist insurgency. All three since have seen civilian leaders toppled by their militaries, followed by protests, sprinkled with Russian flags and slogans calling for the ouster of French forces and diplomats. 

The latest coup last week in oil-rich Gabon — once a staunch and long-standing ally of Paris — has taken a different path. Unlike in Niger, there have been no planeloads of French expatriates returning home or massive anti-French rallies. Although Paris suspended military cooperation — even though it has 400 troops in Gabon — it offered a muted reaction to the toppling of long-term leader Ali Bongo by his reported cousin, following disputed presidential elections. 

Junta leader Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema has restored the transmission of French broadcasters France 24 and Radio France International, cut under Bongo — while the three Sahel coup countries, Burkina Faso, Mail and Niger,  continue to keep those news organizations off the air. 

Listening to Africans? 

Berges Miette, an Africa research associate at Sciences-Po Bordeaux University in France, Miette takes the long view of simmering anti-French sentiment. In the late 1980s, he says, France continued to support some hardline regimes that held onto power, despite a wave of political uprisings. 

African youth, Miette says, have now “stopped dreaming,” pinning their hopes instead on heading to Europe. 

While so far staying silent on Gabon, French President Emmanuel Macron has decried an “epidemic of putsches” in the Sahel. Two other coups — in Guinea and Chad — have also taken place since 2020, with a mixed response from France. The French have maintained ties with Chad, a strong military ally in the Sahel, drawing accusations of having a double standard. 

In a lengthy interview in Le Monde, Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna defended France’s Africa strategy. She differentiated the ousting of Niger’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, with the situation in Chad, where she said Paris counted on N’Djamena’s military government delivering on its promise to restore civilian rule. 

“One cannot see our relations with the continent through the single prism” of the Sahel crises, Colonna added. “It’s not 3,000 or 5,000 people demonstrating in a stadium in Niamey … that can resume our relations with 1.5 million Africans.”

France’s position, she said, “is to listen to Africans, not to decide in their place.” 

For a while, Macron — born after France’s last colony in Africa, Djibouti, gained its independence — seemed the right man for the job. 

“I am of a generation that doesn’t tell Africans what to do,” he told cheering students in Burkina Faso, shortly after his election six years ago. 

Macron pledged to return looted colonial-era artifacts, although only a fraction has been shipped back, and sought new ties elsewhere, including with Kenya, South Africa, Ethiopia and Angola. Like his recent predecessors, he maintained that the tangle of post-colonial business and political ties dubbed Francafrique was long dead. 

In February, Macron promised to draw down French forces in Africa and create a new “security partnership,” with bases on the continent transformed depending on African needs, and jointly managed with African staff. 

A coherent policy

Skeptics say Macron hasn’t always walked his talk. They point to many enduring trappings of French influence — from thousands of troops still stationed in Africa to a raft of longstanding mining concessions benefitting French companies, and the CFA franc, requiring West and Central African members to deposit half their foreign exchange reserves with the French treasury. 

Anti-French sentiment is on the rise in more stable countries, like Senegal, due to a youthful population untethered to the past, but very aware of the challenges of getting visas to France. 

Critics point to what they consider a series of French missteps, too, in the Sahel. Despite early wins, France’s decade-long counterterrorism operation there lost local trust, they say, and finally was shuttered last year amid a spreading Islamist insurgency. Even as France promotes democracy, skeptics describe a tacit acceptance of some authoritarian governments like Chad. 

“France needs to have a coherent policy,” says Sciences-Po researcher Miette, who argues anti-French sentiment is not the real threat to Paris, but rather “a profound questioning of France’s Africa policy.”

He counts among those who believe it is not too late for Paris to hit the reset button yet again. With other authoritarian regimes potentially at risk of falling — in Congo Brazzaville, Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea — the sooner, the better. 

“France has everything to win in changing its Africa policy,” Miette says. “It needs to go beyond talk and be concrete.” 
…

At a critical moment in Ukraine’s counteroffensive, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered a changing of the guard, naming Rustem Umerov as the country’s new defense minister. 

On Wednesday, 338 of the 360 members of the Ukrainian parliament endorsed Umerov, a Crimean Tatar businessman, and a former parliamentarian. Observers see the replacement as part of Zelenskyy’s efforts to address corruption in his administration as the Ukrainian military strives to retake southern Ukraine and areas near the Crimean Peninsula.

A long-time financial supporter of the Crimean Tatar community and father of three, Umerov, a practicing Muslim, became a Member of the Ukrainian Parliament with the Holos party in 2014, championing a reformist and progressive agenda. 

Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion, he played a pivotal role in negotiations with Moscow. 

“He was part of the delegation that negotiated with Russia prior to the conflict. He played a key role in the grain deal due to his connections in Turkey, and our sources indicate his involvement in negotiations to secure the return of kidnapped Ukrainian children,” said Sevgil Musaeva, editor of the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper.

In an interview with Euronews in April 2022, Umerov was resolute, affirming that Ukraine would not compromise on territorial issues. “We want our partners to understand that the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine are a red line for us. Nevertheless, we are ready to hear any possible solutions that do not endanger our territory, our independence, and our dignity,” Umerov said in the interview.

Umerov brings with him a strong resumé as a skilled negotiator and has played a prominent role in efforts to return Crimea to Ukrainian control.

He serves as a co-chairman of the Crimean Platform, an international coordinating mechanism that seeks to negotiate the reversal of Russia’s 2014 unilateral annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. He is a member of the group responsible for developing the Strategy for the De-occupation and Reintegration of Crimea and Sevastopol, initiated by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine in 2020.

Umerov has also led efforts to exchange political prisoners from Crimea and, as a member of parliament, helped shape legislation to provide social support to political prisoners and their families. 

“He is involved in a number of negotiations about the release of prisoners, as well as difficult negotiations about supplies of humanitarian support, weapons,” Tamila Tasheva, a prominent member of the Crimean Tatar community and the Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, told VOA, citing Umerov’s strong communication skills and negotiating experience with Persian Gulf countries and Turkey.

In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda in October 2022, Umerov underscored his longstanding commitment to human rights, going back to when Ukraine was under pro-Russian governments before the Maidan Revolution of 2014. 

“I was born in Uzbekistan, but I returned to Ukraine, where I engaged in activities related to European and NATO initiatives when they weren’t popular,” Umerov told the newspaper.

Why now?

The change was necessary at a time when Ukrainians have grown wary of corruption scandals at the Defense Ministry, according to political analyst and director at Think Tank Politics, Mykola Davydiuk. In addition to being a problem for Ukraine, “it was a bad message to our foreign partners,” Davydiuk told VOA.

Rumors of Reznikov’s impending replacement had been circulating for a year. In February 2023, Fox News quoted David Arakhamia, Ukraine’s parliament majority leader as suggesting that Oleksiy Reznikov might be replaced, although the president chose not to act at the time, allowing then-Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov to remain in his position.

The decision to let Reznikov stay at the time came despite a shakeup at the Defense Ministry that included the resignations of Deputy Defense Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov and Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko in late January of the same year amid allegations of fraud and a coverup involving the purchase military food rations and equipment at inflated prices. 

The Defense Ministry denied any involvement in corrupt practices.

Last month, Ukrainian investigative reporter Mykhailo Tkach from Ukrainska Pravda exposed another scandal related to military procurement.

Reznikov himself does not face any charges in the corruption scandals. 

But the more recent revelation sparked new outrage among Ukrainians and sent a negative signal to Western partners about retaining Reznikov in his role, according to Davydiuk, who points to several other reasons for the timing of Reznikov’s removal.

“The start of the new political season, some unofficial push for replacement from the western partners, and preparation for the visit U.N. General Assembly to New York at the end of this month,” Davydiuk said, are other reasons, at a time when President Zelenskyy needs to address the corruption allegations, regain his credibility, and restore his positive image in the eyes of Western partners.

As Ukraine slowly retakes territory and sets its eyes on reclaiming Crimea, the job of ensuring victory is now on the shoulders of Umerov.
…

Spanish soccer player Jenni Hermoso has formally accused Luis Rubiales, president of the Royal Spanish Football Federation, of sexual assault for an unwanted kiss after the Women’s World Cup final, the national prosecutor’s office announced Wednesday.

In late August, FIFA, world soccer’s governing body, issued Rubiales a 90-day suspension “pending the disciplinary proceedings opened” against him. The entire World Cup-winning team has refused to compete until Rubiales is ousted. Spanish politicians and some of the nation’s most famous soccer clubs and players have also denounced his conduct.

Rubiales, who says he has no plans to step down, maintains that the kiss was consensual and that he is the victim of a libelous political crusade.

Rafael del Amo, vice president of the Royal Spanish Football Federal, and two other federation officials have resigned in protest. On Tuesday, Jorge Vilda was fired as coach of the women’s soccer team.

Some information is from The Associated Press.
…

Yuriy Fedorenko got his call sign Achilles for bravery and independence. Before the war, he was working full time as a Kyiv city council deputy; today, he is fighting against Russian forces in Donbas as commander of an attack drone squadron. Anna Kosstutschenko has his story. VOA footage by Pavel Suhodolskiy
…

Britain said Wednesday it will declare Russia’s Wagner mercenary group a terrorist organization.

The government said it would introduce an order in parliament that if approved would make it illegal to be a member of or support the group.  The order would also allow the government to seize Wagner’s assets.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman said Wagner “has been involved in looting, torture and barbarous murders. Its operations in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa are a threat to global security.”

Wagner was involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine, and in June its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin carried out a brief rebellion against the Russian military. 

Prigozhin was reported killed in a plane crash last month.

Britain had previously sanctioned Wagner and Prigozhin.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters
…

Talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ended without an agreement to restart a deal under which Russia provided safe passage to ships moving grain across the Black Sea, including ships leaving from Ukrainian ports.

The deal, struck last year, was meant to safeguard the supply of agricultural commodities from Ukraine and Russia to global markets, where they account for a large percentage of the supply of wheat, corn, sunflower oil and other staple foods. Russia is waging war against Ukraine, including attacks on its Black Sea ports, making the region hazardous for shipping.

While it was in place, starting in July 2022, the deal allowed more than 1,000 vessels carrying 32.9 million metric tons of grain to transit the Black Sea safely. Russia announced this July that it would not renew the arrangement, causing an immediate halt to grain shipments.

Cutting off shipments from Ukraine threatens to worsen a global food crisis that has seen the price of staple foodstuffs soar, making it difficult for people in many developing countries to feed themselves, and straining the aid budgets of global relief agencies.

Putin’s demands

Speaking at a press conference in the Russian city of Sochi, where he and Erdogan met on Monday, Putin said Russia would only return to the deal if the West fulfilled what he said were its obligations under the agreement, including a promise to lift any sanctions on the export of Russian food and fertilizers. He said that sanctions remain in place that are keeping Russian agricultural exports from making it to global markets.

The large number of economic penalties imposed on Russia by Western countries because of its invasion of Ukraine do not include sanctions on food and fertilizer exports. However, other sanctions, including the severing of Russian banks from the global payments system and a refusal to allow Western companies to insure Russian ships, have sharply curtailed grain exports.

Putin has described this situation as a Western violation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

“We are not against this deal. We are ready to immediately return to it as soon as the promises made to us are fulfilled. That’s all,” Putin said. “So far, no obligations toward Russia have been fulfilled.”

The U.S. and other Western countries deny Putin’s claim that they have failed to live up to the terms of the deal. When Russia announced its decision to back out in July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken released a statement that read, in part, “Despite Russia’s claims, the U.N. has facilitated record Russian exports of food, coordinating with the private sector and with the U.S., E.U., and U.K. to clarify any concerns raised by Russia. As we have consistently made clear, no G7 sanctions are in place on Russian food and fertilizer exports. Russia unfortunately does not contribute to the World Food Program, and its exports focus on higher income countries, not the world’s poorest.”

Erdogan optimistic

Erdogan, who helped broker the original deal in 2022, said he still believes it is possible to restart the agreement.

“We believe that we will reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time,” he told reporters at the news conference on Monday.

The Turkish leader also called on Ukraine to moderate its approach to the agreement.

“Ukraine needs to especially soften its approaches in order for it to be possible for joint steps to be taken with Russia,” Erdogan said.

He did not specify the kind of changes in Ukraine’s approach he was recommending.

Also on Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba addressed Erdogan’s comments, saying that Kyiv is willing to talk but would not bow to what he described as Russian blackmail.

He told reporters that if Ukraine makes concessions to Russia now, the Kremlin will only demand further concessions in the future.

Argument over impact

Both Russia and the Western countries demanding a restart of the grain deal use data from the U.N.-affiliated Black Sea Grain Initiative-Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul to support their version of the deal’s importance.

Russian officials dispute Western claims that Putin is weaponizing food and disproportionately affecting poor countries, arguing that the United Nations’ own data shows that 80% of grain exports that shipped while the deal was in place went to the world’s high-income and upper-middle-income nations. Western officials point to data from the same source, showing that 57% of the grain went to developing countries.

The discrepancy is largely explained by the fact that the U.N. classifies China as both a developing nation and an upper-middle-income nation. Grain shipments to China accounted for 24% of the shipments allowed under the deal.

Relief agencies clear

Among aid organizations around the world, there is little dispute that the impact of the suspension of the deal will be extremely negative for the global poor, both by pushing prices paid by end-consumers higher in the near term and by reducing supply in the longer term.

An analysis by the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute, published after Russia withdrew from the deal, warned that in addition to making existing grain more expensive to ship and thus more costly for global consumers, the high transportation costs will reduce farmers’ income, making them likely to plant less grain in the future.

“The reduced production also poses risks for global markets. With global grain stocks at low levels and little rebuilding this current year, prices will remain volatile and responsive to potential production shortfalls,” the group found. “Thus, a diminished Ukraine leaves a smaller buffer if major global producers fall short.”
…

Vladimir Putin’s Russia has sharply constricted the space for free expression in recent years, but some independent pollsters who fled the country have not abandoned their work.

They are still trying to track Russian public opinion on key topics, including the war in Ukraine, providing a rare window into how the Russian public views the war’s dramatic turns over the last 18 months.

Voice of America’s Russian Service contacted one of these researchers — Elena Koneva — about how she and her team approach their work phoning people in Russia and asking for their opinions.

“Analysts have learned to deal with and avoid authoritarian pressure,” said Koneva, founder of independent research agency ExtremeScan.

“For example, when we ask people about support for the war, we give the option to evade the answer: ‘Do you support, do not support, find it difficult to answer or do not want to answer this question?’ The new position — ‘I don’t want to answer this question’ — is almost a protest.”

She said researchers believe that people who disagree with the war often answer this way. One participant said, “Thank you for the opportunity not to testify against myself.”

Galina Zapryanova, senior regional editor for the Gallup World Poll, told VOA that polling in Russia ” has indeed become more challenging since 2022, but it is not impossible.”

In a written response to questions, she said that despite the self-censorship, pollsters “can usually have higher confidence in the reliability of poll findings that show some fluctuation over time.”

“Even if the baseline result may be affected by self-censorship … shifts in the trend over time show that people are willing to report changes in opinion,” she wrote. “Trended data can also be very informative about the direction of changes in public opinion even if the magnitude is exaggerated.”

At first glance, the Koneva group’s most recent polls from Russia continue to show broad public support for the war.

Sixteen months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the majority of respondents still support the war, and only 20% say they are against.

Overall, researchers say they have tracked just a 9% fall in support for the war last year.

The number of respondents who say Russia should “cease hostilities while maintaining the occupied territories” has more than doubled since last summer, from 11% to 28%.

Core supporters

Koneva said her research group has focused on examining the opinions of the core audience that supports Russia’s war in Ukraine.

She said after people express general support for the war, researchers use more questions to better understand how they view the war and its impact on their lives.

“For example, a person says, ‘I support,’ but then researchers will follow up with questions to determine if they are ready to go to war, ready to donate to the Russian army or expect benefits from a possible victory,” Koneva explained.

Because researchers have watched as censorship and repression grow, they see people’s answers on two levels: those who generally declare support, and those who follow up that declaration with real support for specific political decisions.

As a result, researchers estimate that the core group of war supporters numbers around 30% to 35% of the total number of survey respondents.

These are the convinced supporters of the war. If researchers exclude this group and also exclude the 20% of Russians who admit they oppose the war, that leaves about half of the country’s population who researchers say support the war only at the “declarative level.”

‘Declarative supporters’

Koneva said researchers found that people in this group, the largest single segment of the population, have contradictory attitudes toward the war, consisting of narratives from both sides of the conflict.

Oleg Zhuravlev, a researcher at the Public Sociology Laboratory, another independent research center operating remotely, has done more in-depth interviews with this group of Russians to understand how their opinions have shifted from the first days of the war to now.

He said for many people in this group, opinions changed in June 2022 when many realized the conflict was becoming protracted and not the fast military operation initially promised.

“The feeling of the inevitability of war from the life of Russians, the feeling that the war is now with us, and we are with this life, caused the emergence of new meanings of war,” Zhuravlev said.

“So, many of our informants began to reason as follows: Maybe this war is immoral, but it was inevitable, which means that it remains to wish good luck to our side in this conflict,” he said.

Koneva saw similar patterns in her data among this group as their opinions shifted.

“After the inspiration of some and the anger of others, it is clear that the war is real, and it is for a long time. Fatigue and apathy set in,” she said, as people adjusted to panic-buying, high inflation and unemployment, and the departure of foreign businesses.

Some 38% of respondents reported the war “has reduced their options or ruined their plans.” Among them, 14% of respondents reported a job loss, 36% a decrease in income and 56% reported spending more savings on food.

What events affect public opinion?

Throughout the war, researchers have been trying to understand what factors would reduce public support in Russia.

Koneva said initially, when Russians heard about the damage and losses suffered by Ukrainians, Russian people looked more critically at the reason the Ukrainians were suffering.

“But Russian propaganda finds an “antidote” to any truth,” Koneva said. “In the minds of most Russians, the horror of the town of Bucha [where Russian forces carried out mass killings of civilians] has been supplanted by incredible disinformation about the staging of terrible events.”

Koneva said that in June 2023, respondents were asked to send “virtual telegrams to ordinary Ukrainian citizens.”

The most popular responses, a third of all telegrams, were expressions of sympathy, support and “calls to be patient until Russia releases them,” and a “reminder of the brotherhood of the two peoples.”

Koneva also studied how public opinion shifted after Moscow announced a mobilization campaign in September 2022 that resulted in the conscription of certain people.

Even then, the support rate decreased by only a few percentage points, from 58% to 52%. But it recovered to 57% after three weeks in mid-October 2022.

And when it comes to Russian war casualties, Koneva said the losses have been successfully covered up by the country’s strict censorship measures.

“The Russians do not understand the real numbers of losses. … The media gives only authorized information, and the [country at large] ‘absorbs’ losses,” she explained.

Koneva said public opinion in Russia increasingly seems resigned to a longer-term war.
…

2022 saw the highest number of casualties from cluster bombs since 2008, the year most of the world banned them, according to an annual report from the Cluster Munition Coalition, or CMC, released Tuesday. Civilians represent 95% of the victims.

Cluster bombs killed or wounded 1,172 people in 2022, mostly non-combatants, a nearly eightfold increase from 2021. That casualty number was 890 in Ukraine alone. Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Laos, Azerbaijan, Myanmar, and Yemen also recorded casualties.

According to the report, children accounted for 71% of casualties from unexploded remnants, often mistaking the small, shiny fragments for playthings.

Cluster bombs scatter explosives across wide swaths of land. Some submunitions initially fail to detonate, so unseen bomblets can linger in terrain like landmines, killing and disabling civilians years after a conflict has ended. Once an area has been contaminated, countryside used for agriculture becomes unworkable; routes where humanitarian aid could be delivered become impassable.

Loren Persi, who helped edit the report, emphasized the need “for improved access to rehabilitation services [particularly in remote war-torn areas].” 

Today, 124 nations recognize a global ban on cluster bombs. As per the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions, those countries have committed to restoring contaminated lands, dismantling the last of their stockpiles, and assisting victims.

“All countries that have not banned these weapons must do so immediately,” said Tamar Gabelnick, director of the CMC, referring to some of the biggest players in geopolitics, like the U.S. and Russia.

Since February 2022, Russia has repeatedly peppered Ukraine with cluster bombs. Ukraine has used cluster bombs, too, albeit to a lesser extent. In July, the U.S. began transferring an unknown load of stockpiled 155mm artillery-delivered cluster bombs to Kyiv. At least 21 government leaders and dignitaries from around the world have condemned that decision, including some who support Ukraine’s war effort.

“It’s unconscionable that civilians are still dying and being wounded from cluster munitions 15 years after these weapons were prohibited,” said Mary Wareham from Human Rights Watch at a press conference in Geneva.

Activists like Wareham are worried that a resurgence in cluster bombs could diminish global support for the 2008 ban, permanently shifting how wars play out for the worse. 
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