The crush of unfinished business facing lawmakers when they return to the Capitol would be daunting even if Washington were functioning at peak efficiency.

It’s an agenda whose core items — tax cuts, a potential government shutdown, lots of leftover spending bills — could unravel just as easily as advance in factionalism, gamesmanship and a toxic political environment.

There’s only a four-week window until a Christmas deadline, barely enough time for complicated negotiations even if December stays on the rails. And that’s hardly a sure bet in President Donald Trump’s capital.

First: Avoid shutdown 

Trump and congressional leaders plan a meeting Tuesday to discuss how to sidestep a shutdown and work though the legislative to-do list.

For the optimistic, it’s plain that Democrats and Republicans have reasons to cooperate, particularly on spending increases for the Pentagon and domestic agencies whose budgets otherwise would be frozen. An additional round of hurricane aid should be bipartisan, and efforts to reauthorize a popular health care program for children seem to be on track.

​Tax cuts advance

Republicans are advancing their cherished tax cut measure under special rules that mean Senate Democrats cannot use delaying tactics. The measure passed the House just before the Thanksgiving break and moves to the Senate floor this coming week.

After the Senate GOP’s failure on health care this summer, the majority party is under enormous pressure to produce a victory on taxes. Still, GOP deficit hawks such as Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee and Jeff Flake of Arizona remain uneasy about the overhaul.

​Democrats’ limited leverage

While Democrats are largely sidelined on taxes, they hold leverage over a mix of budget-related issues.

First, there’s the need to avert a government shutdown after a temporary spending bill expires Dec. 8. The most likely scenario, congressional aides say, is for an additional extension until Christmas. On a parallel track are talks to raise spending limits that are keeping agency budgets essentially frozen unless those caps are raised. If that happens, then negotiations could begin in earnest on a massive catchall spending measure in hopes of having it signed into law by year’s end.

Taxes have gotten all the attention so far, but the showdown over a potential shutdown right before Christmas could soon take center stage. Democrats are counting on GOP fears of a holiday season closure to ensure Republican concessions during December talks.

Both sides would have to make concessions that may upset partisans in either party. Just as House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., fears a revolt on the right, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California risks an uprising on her left. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., round out the quartet of top negotiators.

“Everybody’s got complicated politics. The chance of short-term failure is pretty high — short-term failure being a shutdown,” said Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic lobbyist. “But the four of them, assuming they don’t want to shut the government down for a long time, are going to have to come to an accommodation.”

Talks on the spending caps are stuck, however, aides say. A GOP offer to lift the Pentagon budget by more than $54 billion next year and nondefense limits by $37 billion was rejected by Democrats demanding balance between the two sides of the ledger.

​Immigration battle

Long-delayed battles over immigration and Trump’s promised wall along the U.S.-Mexico border are huge obstacles. Many Democrats whose votes are needed on the spending bills insist they won’t vote for any legislation that includes the wall. Trump remains dead set on his $1.6 billion request for a down payment on the project.

Those same Democrats also insist that Congress must act by year’s end to protect immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children and whose protected status is set to lapse next year. Trump backs the idea despite issuing an executive order reversing the Obama administration protections, starting next spring. Conservatives oppose drawing in the immigration issue to legislation to keep the government running.

​Hurricane aid

Hurricane relief is adding one more wrinkle.

Congress has approved more than $50 billion in aid in response to a series of devastating hurricanes. The most recent request by the White House is the largest yet at $44 billion, but it’s not nearly enough to satisfy the powerful Texas delegation, which is pressing behind the scenes for more.

“Completely inadequate,” said Rep. John Culberson, R-Texas. “We must do far more to rebuild, repair and allow Texans to return to normal as quickly as possible.”

​The wild card

Trump is a wild card. He warmed to the idea of cutting deals with Democrats after a September pact with Schumer and Pelosi to lift the government’s debt ceiling.

He promised Democratic leaders that he would sign legislation to give the young immigrants legal status, provided border security is addressed as well.

But that demand on border security came with a long list of conditions subsequently added by the White House. Among them: building his Mexico border wall, overhauling the green card system and strengthening measures against people who stay after their visas expire.

Trump has not really engaged on the year-end agenda, however, and his impulsiveness could be a liability. He almost disowned an omnibus spending bill in May after media accounts portrayed the measure as a win for Democrats.
…

Who’s the boss? That’s the awkward question after the departing head of a government agency charged with looking after consumer rights appointed a deputy to temporarily fill his spot. The White House then named its own interim leader.

One job, two people — and two very different views on how to do it.

The first pick is expected to continue the aggressive policing of banks and other lenders that have angered Republicans. The second, President Donald Trump’s choice, has called the agency a “joke,” an example of bureaucracy run amok, and is expected to dismantle much of what the agency has done.

So come Monday, who will be leading the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau?

​Both say law on their side

Senior Trump administration officials said Saturday that the law was on their side and they expect no trouble when Trump’s pick for temporary director of the CFPB shows up for work. Departing director Richard Cordray, an Obama appointee long criticized by Congressional Republicans as overzealous, had cited a different rule in saying the law was on his side.

In tendering his resignation Friday, Cordray elevated Leandra English, who was the agency’s chief of staff, into the deputy director position. Citing the Dodd-Frank Act that created the CFPB, he said English, an ally of his, would become acting director upon his departure.

Corday’s move was widely seen as an attempt to stop Trump from shaping the agency in the months ahead.

The White House cites the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998. Administration officials on Saturday acknowledged that some other laws appear to clash with Vacancies Act, but said that in this case the president’s authority takes precedence.

Important, though temporary, job

Who prevails in the legal wrangling is seen as important even though this involves just a temporary posting. Getting a permanent replacement approved by the Senate could take months.

The president’s pick for temporary appointee, Mick Mulvaney, had been widely anticipated. Mulvaney, currently director of the Office of Management and Budget, has been an outspoken critic of the agency and is expected to pull back on many of Cordray’s actions in the six years since he was appointed.

Trump announced he was picking Mulvaney within a few hours of Cordray’s announcement Friday.

“The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, or CFPB, has been a total disaster as run by the previous Administrations pick,” Trump tweeted Saturday from his private Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, where he is spending a long Thanksgiving weekend. “Financial Institutions have been devastated and unable to properly serve the public. We will bring it back to life!”

The administration officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the White House’s thinking, called Trump’s appointment of an acting director a “routine move.” They said the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel has already approved Trump’s appointment of Mulvaney and will issue a written legal opinion soon.

The clashing appointments raise the question: What happens when the two new heads show up and try to sit at the same desk and give orders?

One of the administration officials said Mulvaney was expected to start working Monday and that English was expected to also show up — but as deputy director.

Leandra English

English is a trusted lieutenant of Cordray’s who has helped investigate and punish financial companies in ways that many Republicans, Mulvaney in particular, think go too far. In his announcement Friday, Cordray highlighted English’s “in-depth” knowledge of the agency’s operations and its staff. Before joining the CFPB, English served at the Office of Management and Budget and Office of Personnel Management.

“Leandra is a seasoned professional who has spent her career of public service focused on promoting smooth and efficient operations,” Cordray said in the statement.

Mick Mulvaney

Mulvaney was a South Carolina representative to the House before becoming head of the budget office. A founder of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, he was elected in 2010 as part of a tea party wave that brought many critics of the U.S. budget deficit to office. He has taken a hard line on federal spending matters, routinely voting against increasing the government’s borrowing cap and pressing for major cuts to benefit programs as the path to balancing the budget.

He also has been unsparing in his criticism of the CFPB. In a widely quoted comment, he once blasted the agency as “joke,” saying its lack of oversight by Congress and its far-reaching regulations had gone too far.

“The place is a wonderful example of how a bureaucracy will function if it has no accountability to anybody,” he told the Credit Union Times in 2014. “It turns up being a joke in a sick, sad kind of way.”

Congress weighs in

U.S. Rep. Jeb Hensarling, chairman of the powerful House Financial Services Committee and a longtime critic of Cordray, said Mulvaney would “fight not only to protect consumers from force, fraud, and deception but will protect them from government interference with competitive, innovative markets and help preserve their fundamental economic opportunities and liberties.”

Democrats have seized upon Mulvaney’s words in criticizing his appointment to the agency.

U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters of California, the top Democrat on the Financial Services Committee, issued a statement Saturday calling Mulvaney “unacceptable” to lead the CFPB because of his “noxious” views toward its mission to protect consumers.

“He was also the original co-sponsor of a bill to completely eliminate the Consumer Bureau,” she wrote, “and supported other legislation to harmfully roll back Wall Street reform.”
…

As fierce debate rages about “taking a knee” during the national anthem to protest social injustice, Native Americans have a unique take on the issue as the ethnic group with the highest military-service rate, and an enduring regard for warriors.

Supporters of the movement say it’s not intended as a criticism of the military. But such a protest would be unthinkable for many at tribal events because the flag and veterans are so deeply intertwined — and revered.

 “I’ll stand. I’ll do whatever I think is appropriate to honor them first, and then over there, I can debate about whether the country is living up to its side of the deal when it comes to treaty rights, water rights, social issues that affect a lot of the tribes,” said Erny Zah, a singer, powwow emcee and dancer from the Navajo Nation in the southwestern U.S. “Very rarely do I hear anything that negates the veterans’ services, or the country’s disparagement of whatever social issues might be happening at the time.”

American Indians have served in the U.S. military at higher rates per capita than any other ethnic group despite a history of suffering at the hands of Europeans, and even in times when they were denied U.S. citizenship and the right to vote. Serving in the military and protecting one’s homeland is considered a continuation of warrior traditions.

Flag songs focus on veterans

Many tribes even have their own national anthems known as flag songs that focus on veterans. They’re popular among Plains tribes from which the modern powwow originated, said Dennis Zotigh of the Smithsonian National Museum of the American Indian. Powwows are social gatherings, generally with competitive dancing.

Other tribes including the Lumbee, Eastern Cherokee, Mohegan and Pequot on the East Coast, and Cochiti, Jemez and Taos pueblos in the Southwest also composed their own flag songs, telling their stories and admiration for the U.S. flag, Zotigh said.

The reverence on display is almost sacred, he said. Warriors are blessed through ceremonies before they encounter enemies, and welcomed back with parades, giveaways, eagle feathers, cleansing ceremonies and songs. Powwows often have a grand entry solely for veterans, who line up and can take hours to introduce themselves by name, military affiliation and years served.

Singers sit around a drum, starting a melody and slow beat before the words of flag songs repeat.

“The president’s flag will stand forever,” reads a portion of a Sioux song.

“Our country, our land is the most powerful country in the world,” says a Hidatsa song.

“Under the nation’s flag, generations will stand forever. So do I,” says another composed on the Pine Ridge reservation in South Dakota and first sung in a World War II victory celebration.

Warrior societies

While the U.S. flag is displayed prominently as a reminder of the warrior societies from which powwows originated, so too is the eagle staff — a universal flag of people native to North America, said Zotigh, who is Kiowa, Santee Dakota and Ohkay Owingeh. The flag songs also are sung while the U.S. flag is lowered and raised on tribal land, many times by veterans and using a flag given to a deceased veteran’s family.

“When our people have their own doings, we’re going to go along with those folks,” said Herb Adson, a Pawnee from Oklahoma and singer with Southern Thunder. “If they want to raise the flag, that flag song is sung, everyone is going to stand up.”

America’s 567 federally recognized tribes are considered sovereign — nations within but separate from the U.S. and states, with the right to govern themselves.

Some ancient flag songs pre-date the United States and were composed during times of intertribal warfare to welcome warriors back to camp, Zotigh said. Others were composed by soldiers stationed overseas defending the U.S. — a Lakota soldier on a train coming home after World War II or a Hidatsa soldier in Europe during WWII, for example. Others are of unknown origin.

High rates of service

American Indians and Alaska Natives make up about 2 percent of the U.S. population, and Census figures from 2016 show nearly 136,500 of them are veterans who identify solely as Native. They weren’t considered citizens during WWI, which meant those who served did so illegally but proudly, Zotigh said. American Indians were granted U.S. citizenship in 1924 but not all were allowed to vote until the early 1960s, well after WWII ended.

Perhaps the most well-known American Indian veterans are the Code Talkers, who were recruited from various tribes to develop military codes based on their native languages. A Pima Indian, Marine Cpl. Ira Hayes, was among the group that raised the U.S. flag at Iwo Jima in World War II. The first female soldier to die in the Iraq War, Lori Piestewa, was a member of the Hopi Tribe of Arizona.

Pride eclipses politics, injustice

William Runsabove, a singer and enrolled member of the Northern Cheyenne tribe of Montana, said the pride Native veterans have for serving the U.S. eclipses any feelings about the U.S. president, politics or social injustice.

“You can’t take away from pride a Native American has for service,” he said. “And, of course, the tough times … a big percentage of people aren’t happy with the way things are going now, but you can’t take away that pride.”
…

When people come to the U.S. seeking protection because they have suffered persecution or are afraid they will suffer persecution, they are permitted to file for asylum regardless of their immigration status.

U.S. law offers asylum to those people facing persecution in their home countries on the basis of race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular group.

WATCH: What is Asylum and How Does it Work in the US?

There are two kinds of asylum: affirmative and defensive. An immigrant may claim affirmative asylum within one year of their last arrival in the United States. An immigrant may request defensive asylum while fighting an order of deportation.

During the years 2013-2015, an average of about 25,000 people received asylum each year. Almost twice as many affirmative applicants were approved as defensive applicants.

Detention

Applicants must be physically present in the U.S. to apply for asylum.

Current policy is to detain asylum-seekers, often when they arrive at a port of entry. Waiting while their cases go through the courts can mean spending months in a detention center.

“We are closing the doors on so many people, and the first thing that they get when they come here to the U.S. is like ‘OK, we’re going to lock you up,’” said Rosa Santana, a detainee visitation coordinator at First Friends immigrant advocacy group. “We don’t know what these people have been through, their traumas. Putting them in detention is another trauma for them.”

First Friends is a local nonprofit in Jersey City, New Jersey, and its visitation groups visit immigrant detainees at the Elizabeth Detention Center, Hudson County Correctional Center, Bergen County Jail and Essex County Correctional Center-Delaney Hall.

Credible fear

Asylum-seekers must apply within one year from the date of last arrival or show proof of an “exceptional” change based on extraordinary circumstances. Above all, they must prove to the asylum officer or to an immigration court judge that they have a “credible fear” of returning to their home country.

To Judy Pepenella, community organizer at the Conservative Society for Action in New York, asylum is a “touchy” subject.

“I have a problem, personally, and it has to be honesty. You know, just because you have to get out and you don’t have the ability to become a citizen and you don’t want go back, it has to truly be an issue,” Pepenella told VOA.

Pepenella, a Republican and conservative, said though she doesn’t believe in jailing asylum-seekers, each case must be looked at on its merit.

“When they come here, are they gonna become citizens, or are they going to stay on an immigrant or not American basis? If you come, become a citizen, become part of the process, become part of what makes America great,” Pepenella added.

WATCH: Asylum in the US: The Pros and Cons

Future of asylum

The White House wants to tighten standards in the U.S. asylum system.

U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions has claimed the current asylum system is “subject to rampant abuse and fraud” and he called for tighter rules for people seeking asylum in the United States.

Sessions said current policies allow applicants to take advantage of a “broken” court system that is backlogged by about 600,000 cases nationwide, although not all are asylum cases.

Figures from the months of July, August and September of 2016 and 2017, while hardly conclusive, indicate that asylum cases were being adjudicated at a faster rate since Trump took office in 2017 than the previous year — and that the percentages of approval, at least for affirmative cases, have fallen off slightly.

July 2016: 1,957 cases adjudicated; 996 affirmative approvals

August 2016: 2,262 cases adjudicated; 884 affirmative approvals

September 2016: 2,232 cases adjudicated, 967 affirmative approvals

July 2017: 3,934 cases adjudicated; 1,252 affirmative approvals

August 2017: 5,336 cases adjudicated; 1,543 affirmative approvals

September 2017: 4,255 cases adjudicated; 1,513 affirmative approvals

Pepenella struggles with asylum. 

“I’m not saying everyone is lying, please make sure you understand that, there are nations that people need help to get out of,” she said.

But Santana sees it in stark, human terms. 

“We know that they are not lying. We can hear the desperation, you know, when we talk to them,” she said. “Every day we have tears in our eyes from the stories that we hear. Because we know that people are really risking their lives to come here.”
…

The politically fraught trial of a Turkish-Iranian businessman accused of running a multibillion-dollar scheme to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran gets underway next week but is widely expected to start without the main suspect: Reza Zarrab.

Zarrab is a 33-year-old multimillionaire of dual Iranian-Turkish citizenship with business interests in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, and ties to the governments of Turkey and Iran.

He was arrested in Florida in March 2016 while on a family trip to Disney World and later moved to New York to face criminal charges of helping Iran evade U.S. sanctions between 2010 and 2015 by laundering money through the U.S. financial system and bribing Turkish officials.

​US-Turkey relations

The impending trial has become a flashpoint in deteriorating U.S.-Turkish relations.

Turkish President Recept Tayyip Erdogan has personally lobbied the U.S. to release Zarrab, raising questions that Erdogan and other Turkish official are worried Zarrab could implicate them with bribery and corruption.

Meanwhile, the recent transfer of Zarrab from a federal detention center in New York to an undisclosed location has prompted speculation that he is cooperating with U.S. prosecutors, possibly on unrelated matters of interest to Turkey.

Zarrab is accused of using a network of front companies in Turkey and the UAE to disguise hundreds of millions of dollars of business transactions on behalf of the Iranian government and other Iranian entities.

One entity, Mahan Air, is charged with ferrying fighters to Syria. Among other things, Zarrab is accused of shipping gold to Iran in exchange for Iranian oil and natural gas in a scheme known as “gold for gas.”

To facilitate his scheme, Zarrab allegedly paid tens of millions of dollars to Turkish government officials and bank executives.

The sanctions, aimed at Iran’s access to U.S. financial institutions, were lifted after Iran struck a deal with the U.S. and other major world powers in 2015 to keep a peaceful nuclear program.

Eight other people, including Zarrab’s 39-year-old brother, Mohammad Zarrab, and a former minister of economy, Mehmet Zafer Caglayan, have been indicted on charges related to the scheme.

But only one other, Mehmet Atilla, a former deputy general manager of Halkbank, one of Turkey’s largest banks, has been arrested.

Their trial has been repeatedly postponed and is now scheduled to start Monday in New York with jury selection.

Allegations

In court filings, prosecutors have alleged that Zarrab has had a personal relationship with Erdogan and that Erdogan may have known of of Zarrab’s sanctions-busting scheme.

Erdogan is not accused of any wrongdoing, but he and other Turkish officials have slammed the case as a conspiracy against Turkey.

Erdogan has repeatedly pressed President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama to drop the case. In September, he said Trump told him that the “prosecution is out of his jurisdiction.”

Yet as Zarrab’s trial draws near, there are indications that Zarrab may be negotiating a deal with U.S. prosecutors.

For starters, his whereabouts remains a mystery.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Prisons website, Zarrab was “released” from the Metropolitan Correction Center, a federal detention center in New York, Nov. 8.

But the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York in Manhattan, where Zarrab will be tried, says he remains in “federal custody.”

Nick Biase, a spokesman for the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, confirmed Zarrab’s detention to VOA but declined to elaborate.

Indication he’s talking

Legal experts say Zarrab’s release from federal detention is an indication that he’s talking to prosecutors as part of a guilty plea deal.

“One cannot be sure, but the most likely explanation for the release of a detained defendant, in the absence of any formal release from detention, is that he is in the custody of the FBI,” said Daniel Richman, a former federal prosecutor now a professor at Columbia University in New York. “This move rarely happens, but has occurred in extraordinary circumstances.”

Benjamin Brafman, Zarrab’s lead attorney, did not respond to a request for comment.

In recent weeks, Brafman and Zarrab’s other lawyers have not participated in key pretrial proceedings, such as providing questions for prospective jurors. That has fueled speculation that Zarrab may skip his own trial.

In an Oct. 30 court filing, Victor Rocco, an attorney for Atilla, Zarrab’s co-defendant, wrote that it appeared “likely that Mr. Atilla will be the only defendant appearing at trial.”

Eric Jaso, a former federal prosecutor now a partner at the Spiro Harrison law firm in Short Hills, New Jersey, said the absence of Zarrab’s lawyers from court proceedings could mean Zarrab is cooperating with the government.

Adding to the mystery, the federal judge overseeing the case dropped Zarrab’s name from the title of the case in an order issued Monday and replaced it with Atilla’s name.

The title change suggests Atilla will be the only defendant on trial Monday, Richman said.

“It is also consistent with Zarrab’s having already entered a guilty plea, although that is not necessarily the case,” Richman said.

Acting U.S. Attorney Joon Kim, whose office is prosecuting the case, gave no indication last week that his office has dropped the case against Zarrab.

“This case, our case, the prosecution that’s going on and we’ll start next week in the courthouse, was brought and will continue to be brought by career prosecutors, by career FBI agents and investigators,” Kim said at a press conference.
…

Cuba marks the first anniversary of the death of revolutionary leader Fidel Castro on Saturday followed by municipal elections on Sunday that will usher in a new leader who for the first time in 60 years will not be a Castro brother.

The island will hold a series of remembrances from Saturday through Dec. 4, the day Castro was laid to rest in a cemetery in Santiago de Cuba, where he launched the Cuban revolution.

Fidel Castro’s death last Nov. 25 ushered in a nine days of national mourning. The Cold War icon, who defied U.S. efforts to topple him, died at the age of 90.

By the time he died, Castro had been largely out of public view for nearly a decade because of ill health. He ceded the presidency to his younger brother, Raul Castro, in 2008 after intestinal troubles nearly killed him in 2006.

State-run media reports that galas and vigils will be held around the country this week in honor of Fidel Castro. State television is running archived footage of Fidel Castro, and cultural institutions are dedicating their performances to his memory.

Elections and gradual transition

During the weeklong events, citizens will also take part in municipal elections. The vote will end with the selection of a new president in late February, after Raul Castro said he would step down at the end of his two consecutive five-year terms.

The transition to new leadership, however, is expected to be gradual as Raul Castro will remain head of the Communist Party, the only legal party in Cuba.

State-run media is championing the belief that the elections are a way for citizens to show support for Fidel Castro’s ideas. In the provincial and national votes, candidates were chosen by commissions made up of Communist Party representatives.

The elections come at difficult time for Cuba, as relations with the United States have worsened under U.S. President Donald Trump and its economy continues to suffer as the fortunes of its key ally Venezuela declines.
…

A U.S. company says it has been selling lethal weapons to Ukraine since last year, ahead of an expected decision by the Trump administration on whether to provide such weapons to Ukraine.

“We started delivering our product to Ukraine last year and we are continuing deliveries up until now,” said Richard Vandiver, Chief Operating Officer at the Texas company AirTronic, USA, in an interview with VOA’s Ukrainian service.

Vandiver said the sales have been limited to short-range defensive weapons, principally Precision Shoulder Fired Rocket launchers (PSRLs), which are a redesigned and updated version of the widely deployed Soviet RPG-7 anti-tank weapon. Ukraine is engaged in a struggle against Russian-trained and funded separatists in its eastern region and fears an armored assault.

“The ability to stop armored vehicles is essential for Ukraine to protect itself,” said General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during the testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on September 26.

Vandiver told VOA the PSRL should be considered a defensive weapon because of its limited range.

“Obviously, PSRL is a lethal system, but it’s a defensive lethal system,” Vandiver said. “The RPG-7 has the effective range of under a thousand meters.

“As long as the weapon system stays [in government-controlled territory], it’s not an offensive weapon, but if armor starts to cross the river than I would assume that the Ukrainian defense forces would employ our systems to stop the armor.”

The U.S. Congress has approved $350 million in security aid for Ukraine in its most recent National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), including $47 million for defensive lethal weapons. The act awaits final approval in the House of Representatives before going to President Donald Trump for his signature.

Trump is reported to be considering a recommendation received from his National Security Council this week to provide lethal weaponry to Ukraine. The weapon considered most likely to be included is the shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missile, which features a sophisticated self-guidance system and a range more than four times greater than the PSRL.

‘De facto embargo’

Any sales of lethal weaponry to Ukraine marks a reversal of a non-binding policy implemented under the administration of former president Barack Obama.

“In the formal sense, there is no embargo on Ukraine, but you could say that there is a de facto embargo,” said Michael Carpenter, senior director of the Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement at the University of Pennsylvania. “Formally speaking, [Obama] did not make a decision on sending weapons to Ukraine, so de facto that became an embargo.”

Any such U.S. military sales must be licensed by the State Department’s Directorate of Defense Trade Controls, which says it is restricted under federal regulations from commenting on commercial sales export licensing activity.

However, the department issues a list of defense articles and services that have been authorized as direct commercial sales each year. The most recent list shows that more than $26.9 million in military sales to Ukraine were authorized in 2016, with more than $17.6 million of that having been shipped.

More than $5 million of the authorized sales comprised lethal weaponry, mainly comprising firearms and ammunition. The report does not show how much of that was actually shipped.

AirTronic, US coordination

Vandiver declined to discuss exact details of the AirTronic supply contract with Ukraine, but he emphasized that the activities are conducted in “very close coordination with the U.S. Embassy, with the U.S. State Department, with the U.S. Pentagon and with the Ukrainian government.”

“It took quite a bit for us to secure authorizations that we needed, because of the sensitivity of the issue under Minsk II,” Vandiver said, adding that the lethal system is not banned by the agreement. The Minsk II agreement — brokered by Germany and France in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko in February of 2015 — was aimed at limiting the fighting in the East of Ukraine, but has had only limited success. 

“We are very familiar with the accords that were reached in Europe under the treaties … and we abide by those,” he said. He added that AirTronic obtained an export license for the sale, “following the same application process as any defense contractor would follow.”

The Ukrainian government hopes to expand its purchases of lethal weapons from the U.S. substantially, and attaches great hope to the possibility that the White House will approve financial assistance for those purchases.

The $47 million in possible lethal aid for Ukraine included in the NDAA would allow Kyiv to obtain more powerful defensive weapons, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S. Valery Chaly told VOA.

“We hope that the bill [NDAA], which has been already approved by Congress, will be signed by President Trump. This would allow to unlock about $50 million in lethal defense assistance for Ukraine. The decision is with the U.S. president and then we will be talking about more powerful weapons,” Chaly said.

During his visit to Ukraine in August this year, U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis rejected any suggestion that the provision of such weapons may be considered provocative by Russia. “Defensive weapons are not provocative unless you are an aggressor, and clearly Ukraine is not an aggressor since it is their own territory where the fighting is happening,” Mattis said.

Still, some analysts doubt that the Trump administration is willing to abandon the self-imposed restriction on lethal arms sales to Ukraine.

“I remain a pessimist on this,” said Carpenter, director of the Biden Center at the University of Pennsylvania. However, he said, “I’ve long supported providing defensive arms to Ukraine. I think this is the right thing to do. It’s the moral thing to do and also the strategic thing to do for the United States, because it would deter further Russia aggression.”
…

President Donald Trump is continuing to rail against football players who kneel during the National Anthem to protest racism and police brutality.

Trump asks his followers in a Black Friday tweet: “Can you believe that the disrespect for our Country, our Flag, our Anthem continues without penalty to the players.”

He’s accusing NFL commissioner Roger Goodell of having “lost control” of what he called a “hemorrhaging league” where “Players are the boss!”

Trump’s tweet was in response to one from his social media chief, Dan Scavino.

Scavino had shared a Breitbart News story about New York Giants player Olivier Vernon taking a knee during the anthem on Thanksgiving ahead of a game against the Redskins.

The website is run by Trump’s former chief strategist.
…

Wisconsin Senate candidate Kevin Nicholson, a consultant for Fortune 500 companies, doesn’t look much like the renegade outsiders whom political strategist Steve Bannon says he’s recruiting for his war on the Republican establishment. But Nicholson has Bannon’s backing anyway, thanks to his loyalty to President Donald Trump.

As Bannon drafts his team of challengers to the old guard, the new guard is increasingly aligned not by ideology, but by its history of support for the president. Republicans who have criticized the president or been slow to embrace him are out.

One particular test for the Breitbart News chairman and former Trump White House strategist is how such Republicans reacted during the campaign to the 2005 Access Hollywood video showing Trump bragging about sexually imposing himself on women. Those who kept quiet about it or stuck with him earn Bannon’s favor now, even if it means looking the other way on some policy positions and affiliations. Nicholson, for example, has backing from wealthy free-trade advocates, an awkward policy fit with Trump’s economic nationalism.

“If you were never-Trump, refused to ever endorse the president or withdrew your endorsement following Access Hollywood weekend, don’t even bother walking through Bannon’s door,” said Bannon adviser Andy Surabian.

Bannon hopes chiefly to topple Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, whom he has blamed for obstructing Trump’s agenda, especially efforts to dismantle Barack Obama’s 2010 health care law. Bannon has threatened to find a Republican primary opponent for almost every GOP senator seeking re-election in 2018.

“The United States Senate in particular has done, I think, a terrible job in supporting President Trump,” Bannon told the California Republican convention last month.

In Wisconsin, state Senator Leah Vukmir is opposing Nicholson for the GOP’s U.S. Senate nomination. In last year’s presidential campaign, she first supported Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s short campaign before shifting to Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  She helped record a pro-Trump radio ad a week before the election — perhaps too little, too late, in Bannon’s eyes.

“The voters know I have been a supporter of Donald Trump,” she told The Associated Press last month. “I’ve traveled around this state and talked to countless people who want to see the president’s agenda move and are frustrated that it’s not happening.” She hasn’t said publicly whether she supports McConnell.

Nicholson only recently swung against McConnell. He’s backed by the pro-trade Club for Growth, and in 2000, spoke to the 2000 Democratic National Convention as the national president of College Democrats.

In September, he said: “I have no issues voting for Mitch McConnell.”

But the following month, after meeting with Bannon, Nicholson publicly called for “new leadership.”

Bannon endorsements

While Surabian said Bannon is generally “looking for candidates who support the president and his America First agenda,” policy unity is not a prerequisite.

“You don’t have to be perfect,” Bannon told the California convention. “This is not a commoditized product like Procter & Gamble.”

Nor is it a free-for-all. Some positions, such as supporting a route to citizenship for immigrants in the country illegally, would be a big problem for Bannon.

Bannon thinks his nascent insurgency is already having results, thanks to the retirement announcements of two sharp critics of Trump, Republican Senators Bob Corker of Tennessee and Jeff Flake of Arizona. In Tennessee, Bannon supports Representative Marcia Blackburn, a popular conservative House member bidding for the Senate.  She has McConnell’s backing, too.

Bannon also has endorsed former Arizona state Senator Kelli Ward, who lost her 2016 primary challenge to Senator John McCain. Republican Representative Martha McSally, who never endorsed Trump, is weighing a campaign for Flake’s seat.

Bannon is also looking to unseat Republican Senator Dean Heller of Nevada, who opposed Trump last year and opposed legislation in July aimed at dismantling Obamacare.

Yet Heller’s challenger, Danny Tarkanian, has supported trade treaties, specifically the Trans Pacific Partnership. Trump pulled out of the Obama-era treaty in January, a move Bannon praised.

In Montana, Bannon is supporting the state auditor, Matt Rosendale, hardly an anti-establishment figure as the former majority leader in the Montana House. But he runs without the trail of tweets left by rival Troy Downing, who last year described Trump as “not electable” and having a “tenuous relationship with the truth.”

In West Virginia, Bannon is supporting Attorney General Patrick Morrisey over Representative Evan Jenkins, a Democrat who switched parties four years ago to run for Congress. Morrisey, however, is no Washington newcomer, having been a lawyer for a Washington lobbying firm and later a lawyer for the House Energy and Commerce Committee before he moved to West Virginia.
…

Attorneys for Michael Flynn, President Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, have told Trump’s legal team they can no longer discuss the probe by a special counsel, indicating Flynn may be cooperating with the investigation, The New York Times reported Thursday.

Flynn’s attorneys and a spokesman for special counsel Robert Mueller did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. A representative for Trump’s legal team could not immediately be reached for comment.

Flynn is a central figure in the federal probe led by Mueller into whether Trump aides colluded with Russia to boost his 2016 presidential campaign. Russia has denied interfering in the U.S. election, and Trump has said there was no collusion.

The Times reported that Flynn’s attorneys had been sharing information with Trump’s legal team about the Mueller investigation.

Citing four people involved in the case, the newspaper reported the cooperation agreement had ended, although adding that that in itself did not prove Flynn was cooperating with Mueller.

Flynn served 24 days as Trump’s national security adviser but was fired after it was discovered he had misrepresented his contacts with a Russian diplomat to Vice President Michael Pence.
…

THE WHITE HOUSE

Office of the Press Secretary

          For Immediate Release                          November 23, 2017

REMARKS BY PRESIDENT TRUMP

TO MEMBERS OF THE MILITARY

Via Video Teleconference

Mar-a-Lago Club and Resort | Palm Beach, Florida

9:06 A.M. EST

     THE PRESIDENT:  Hello, everybody, and happy Thanksgiving.  You’re very, very special people to me and to everybody in this country — that I can tell you.  And I’ve got five deployed units bravely representing each branch of our armed forces.  And we’re going on live right now, and surrounding me is a lot of press. Better me than you — believe me, fellas.  Better me than you. 

     It’s an honor to speak with you all and to give God thanks for the blessings of freedom and for the heroes who really have this tremendous courage that you do to defend us and to defend freedom.  So we want to thank you all very much.  Very, very special people.  It doesn’t get more special.  

     Representing the Army, we have the First Brigade Combat Team of the 82nd Airborne who are conducting operations in Kandahar, Afghanistan in support of Operation Freedom’s Sentinel.  Colonel Toby — where is Toby?  Raise your hand, Toby.  Where’s Toby?  Thank you, Toby.  I hear so many good things about you, Toby.  That’s good news. 

But, Toby Magsig, Happy Thanksgiving to all of you.  And I have to say, just directly to the folks in Afghanistan, everybody is talking about the progress you’ve made in the last few months since I opened it open.  We opened it up.  We said go ahead, we’re going to fight to win.  We’re not fighting anymore to just walk around.  We’re fighting to win.  And you people are really — you’ve turned it around over the last three to four months like nobody has seen.  And they are talking about it.  So, thank you very much — brave, incredible fighters.

     Direct Support Team Golf of the Marine Corps Special Operations is also on the line.  These great Marines are operating in Iraq in support of Operation Inherent Resolve.  Major Jonathan Rigline is the commanding officer.  Semper Fi.   Semper Fi. 

I have a great Marine who’s the Chief of Staff — as you know, John Kelly — doing an incredible job, just like any Marine would.  And, Major, to you and to all the Marines doing this great work in delivering defeat after defeat to ISIS — what you’re doing with ISIS is, again, being talked about.  We’re being talked about again as an armed forces.  We’re really winning.  We know how to win, but we have to let you win.  They weren’t letting you win before; they we’re letting you play even. We’re letting you win. 

I also want to say hello to Captain Dave Stoner and all of the sailors abroad the USS Monterey, sailing in support of both the 6th and 5th fleets.  The Monterey’s primary missions include ballistic missile defense, anti-air warfare, anti-surface warfare, and anti-submarine warfare.  Thank you to everyone aboard the USS Monterey for your dedication.  Thank you very much. 

We’re also joined by the 74th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron from Incirlik Air Base.  Lieutenant Colonel Craig Morash, your squadron has done a tremendous job — tremendous — and we appreciate it.  The fight against ISIS, it’s coming our way — coming our way.  Big, big difference.  A lot of things have happened.  They say we’ve made more progress against ISIS than they did in years of the previous administration, and that’s because I’m letting you do your job. 

You’re performing more than 1,000 missions over the skies of Iraq and Syria in the last four months.  We’re very, very proud of you.  And believe me, everybody in this country is watching and they’re seeing, and they’re seeing positive reports for a change, instead of the neutral and negative reports.  It’s all positive. 

To the Coasties aboard the Cutter Wrangell:  Welcome and Happy Thanksgiving.  Lieutenant Brian Hudson, you and the entire crew abroad the Wrangell are doing incredible work in the Arabian Gulf, performing theater security, defense operations, and maritime infrastructure protection.  Thank you very much for your service.  Very important area.

For each of you, I know it’s very hard to be away from home at this time of the year.  We’re doing well at home.  The economy is doing really great.  When you come back, you’re going to see with the jobs and the companies coming back into our country and the stock market just hit a record high.  Unemployment is the lowest it’s been in 17 years.  So you’re fighting for something real, you’re fighting for something good. 

A lot of things have happened with our country over the last very short period of time, and they’re really good — they’re really good.  I especially like saying that companies are starting to come back.  Now we’re working on tax cuts — big, fat, beautiful tax cuts.  And hopefully we’ll get that and then you’re going to really see things happen.

So as we give thanks for this holiday, I know I speak on behalf of all Americans when I say that we totally support you.  In fact, we love you — we really do.  We love you.  And this is a thanksgiving that you won’t forget.  You’re in a very different part of the world than you were used to, but, boy, are you doing a job there.  And thank God for you.  Thank God for you. 

We also want to give thanks to our loved ones — our amazing military families.  I know they miss you, and they miss you so deeply and so badly.  They’re every bit as important as every else you work with because they put up with so much.  They put up with the time away and all of those things that they have to endure.  And they endure it because they love our country and because they love you.  And believe me, I know so much about military families.  They respect and appreciate what you’re doing for this country, and they respect and appreciate what you’re doing for them, as a family.  So your families love you and they miss you.

And again, I’m going to now — I’m surrounded by reporters and press, and I’m going to ask them to leave, and we’re going to have very confidential, personal conversations.  We’re set up for that.

You know, it’s really wonderful what technology can do.  So I’ll ask the press to get out, and I’ll say, “You’re fired.”  And, by the way, media, Happy thanksgiving, I must say.  Have a good Thanksgiving in Palm Beach, Florida.  Thank you all for being here.  I appreciate it. 

                               END                 9:13 A.M. EST

 
…

Some Republicans are hoping lawmakers will soon wrap up investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 election that have dragged on for most of the year. But with new details in the probe emerging almost daily, that seems unlikely.

Three congressional committees are investigating Russian interference and whether President Donald Trump’s campaign was in any way involved. The panels have obtained thousands of pages of documents from Trump’s campaign and other officials, and have done dozens of interviews.

The probes are separate from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Mueller can prosecute for criminal activity, while Congress can only lay out findings, publicize any perceived wrongdoing and pass legislation to try to keep problems from happening again. If any committee finds evidence of criminal activity, it must refer the matter to Mueller.

All three committees have focused on a June 2016 meeting that Trump campaign officials held in Trump Tower with a Russian lawyer and others. They are also looking into outreach by several other Russians to the campaign, including involvement of George Papadopoulos, who pleaded guilty this month to lying to the FBI as part of Mueller’s probe. New threads continue to emerge, such as a recent revelation that Donald Trump Jr. was messaging with WikiLeaks, the website that leaked emails from top Democratic officials during the campaign.

A look at the committees that are investigating, and the status of their work when they return from their Thanksgiving break:

Senate Intelligence Committee

The Senate intelligence panel, which has been the most bipartisan in its approach, has interviewed more than 100 people, including most of those attending the Trump Tower meeting. Chairman Richard Burr of North Carolina and the panel’s top Democrat, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, have said they plan to bring in Donald Trump Jr. The president’s son was one of several Trump campaign officials in the meeting.

The committee has looked broadly at the issue of interference, and called in executives from Facebook, Twitter and Google, pushing them to take steps to prevent Russian election meddling on their platforms. Warner told The Associated Press the committee is still looking for more information from those companies, which were initially reluctant to cooperate.

Burr has said that he wants to wrap up the probe by early spring, when congressional primaries begin. While there are many areas of bipartisan agreement on the meddling, it’s unclear whether all members will agree to the final report. It’s also unclear if the report will make a strong statement on whether the Trump campaign colluded in any way with Russia.

Warner said it’s plain there were “unprecedented contacts” as Russians reached out to the Trump campaign but what’s not established is collusion.

House Intelligence Committee

In the House, Democrats hope the intelligence committee can remain focused on the Russia probe as the panel’s GOP chairman, Rep. Devin Nunes, and other Republicans have launched new, separate investigations into Democrat Hillary Clinton and a uranium deal during President Barack Obama’s administration. Nunes stepped back from the Russia probe in April after criticism that he was too close to the White House, but remains chairman of the committee.

Some Republicans on the panel have grown restless with the probe, saying it has amounted to a fishing expedition and pushing for it to end. Still, the committee has continued to interview dozens of witnesses involved with the Trump campaign, among them several participants in the 2016 meeting. On Nov. 30, the panel will interview Attorney General Jeff Sessions behind closed doors. Lawmakers are interested in Sessions’ knowledge about interactions between Trump campaign aides and Russians, and also his own contacts.

The top Democrat on the panel, California Rep. Adam Schiff, told AP the committee has multiple interviews before the New Year. He said the Republican investigations into Clinton and Obama could be “an enormous time drain,” but they have not yet fully organized. He says the committee must be thorough and he doesn’t believe the Russia investigation should end soon.

Senate Judiciary Committee

The Senate Judiciary Committee has also divided along partisan lines as Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the panel’s top Democrat, haven’t agreed on some interviews and subpoenas. But as in the House, the panel has proceeded anyway, conducting bipartisan, closed-door interviews with several people who were in the 2016 meeting.

The panel is showing recent signs that it is aggressively pursuing the investigation. The committee is the only one to have interviewed Trump Jr. And just before the Thanksgiving break, it sent Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, a letter asking him to be more forthcoming with the committee.

Grassley has been focused on a law that requires foreign agents to register and the firing of James Comey as FBI director. Along with the other committees, Judiciary is also looking into a dossier of allegations about Trump’s own connections to Russia.

It’s not known if the panel will issue a final report, or if its probe will conclude before next year’s elections.

 
…