In agitating for a trade war, President Donald Trump may have forgotten William Tecumseh Sherman’s adage that “war is hell.”

The Civil War general’s observation can be apt for trade wars, which may create conditions for a shooting war.

A look at Trump’s spoiling-for-a-fight tweet Friday:

TRUMP: “When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!”

THE FACTS: History suggests that trade wars are not easy.

The president’s argument, in essence, is that high tariffs will force other countries to relent quickly on what he sees as unfair trading practices, and that will wipe out the trade gap and create factory jobs. That’s his motivation for announcing that the U.S. will impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum imports.

The record shows that tariffs, while they may help certain domestic manufacturers, can come at a broad cost. They can raise prices for consumers and businesses because companies pass on at least some of the higher costs of imported materials to their customers. Winning and losing isn’t as simple a matter as tracking the trade gap.

The State Department’s office of the historian looked at tariffs passed in the 1920s and 1930s to protect farms and other industries that were losing their markets in Europe as the continent recovered from World War I. The U.S. duties hurt Europe and made it harder for those countries to repay their war debts, while exposing farmers and consumers in the U.S. to higher prices. European nations responded by raising their tariffs and the volume of world trade predictably slowed by 1934.

The State Department says the tariffs exacerbated the global effects of the Great Depression while doing nothing to foster political or economic cooperation among countries. This was a diplomatic way of saying that the economic struggles helped embolden extremist politics and geopolitical rivalries before World War II.

Nor have past protectionist measures saved the steel industry, as Trump says his tariffs would.

The United States first became a net importer of steel in 1959, when steelworkers staged a 116-day strike, according to research by Michael O. Moore, a George Washington University economist. After that, U.S. administrations imposed protectionist policies, only to see global competitors adapt and the U.S. share of global steel production decline.
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China has warned about the “huge impact” on global trading, if U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with his plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on imported steel and 10 percent on imported aluminum products.

Wang Hejun, head of China’s commerce ministry’s trade remedy and investigation bureau, said in a statement late Friday the tariffs would “seriously damage multilateral trade mechanisms represented by the World Trade Organization and will surely have huge impact on normal international trade order.”

The Chinese official added, “If the final measures of the United States hurt Chinese interests, China will work with other affected countries in taking measures to safeguard its own rights and interests.”

Allies weigh in

Meanwhile earlier Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Trump’s tariff plans were “absolutely unacceptable.”

Trudeau said Friday he is prepared to “defend Canadian industry.” Canada is the United States’ biggest foreign source of both materials. He warned that the tariffs would also hurt U.S. consumers and businesses by driving up prices.

The European Union was also stung by Trump’s plan, as evidenced by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s warning that the EU could respond by taxing quintessentially American-made products, such as bourbon whiskey, blue jeans and Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

Juncker told German media Friday that he does not like the words “trade war.” 

“But I can’t see how this isn’t part of warlike behavior,” he said.

Trump had tweeted earlier in the day: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”

The director of the World Trade Organization, Roberto Azevedo, responded coolly, saying, “A trade war is in no one’s interests.”

Currency markets 

The currency market responded with a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar against most other major currencies. It ended the day at its lowest level against the yen in two years. The euro gained a half-percent against the dollar Friday.

And the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the trading week with its fourth decline in as many days, ending at 24,538.06. The Nasdaq and S&P 500, however, rose slightly after a three-day losing streak.

Trump spent Friday defending his threat to impose the tariffs, saying potential trade conflicts can be beneficial to the United States.

A Japanese government official told VOA that Tokyo “has explained several times to the U.S. government our concerns,” but declined to comment further on any ongoing discussions with Washington.

“While we are aware of the president’s statement, we understand that the official decision has not been made yet,” the Japanese official said. “If the U.S. is going to implement any measures, we expect the measures be WTO-rules consistent.”

Trump said Thursday the tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imports will be in effect for a long period of time. He said the measure will be signed “sometime next week.”

In 2017, Canada, Brazil, South Korea and Mexico accounted for nearly half of all U.S. steel imports. That year, Chinese steel accounted for less than 2 percent of overall U.S. imports.
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China has warned about the “huge impact” on global trading, if U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with his plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on imported steel and 10 percent on imported aluminum products.

Wang Hejun, head of China’s commerce ministry’s trade remedy and investigation bureau, said in a statement late Friday the tariffs would “seriously damage multilateral trade mechanisms represented by the World Trade Organization and will surely have huge impact on normal international trade order.”

The Chinese official added, “If the final measures of the United States hurt Chinese interests, China will work with other affected countries in taking measures to safeguard its own rights and interests.”

Allies weigh in

Meanwhile earlier Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Trump’s tariff plans were “absolutely unacceptable.”

Trudeau said Friday he is prepared to “defend Canadian industry.” Canada is the United States’ biggest foreign source of both materials. He warned that the tariffs would also hurt U.S. consumers and businesses by driving up prices.

The European Union was also stung by Trump’s plan, as evidenced by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s warning that the EU could respond by taxing quintessentially American-made products, such as bourbon whiskey, blue jeans and Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

Juncker told German media Friday that he does not like the words “trade war.” 

“But I can’t see how this isn’t part of warlike behavior,” he said.

Trump had tweeted earlier in the day: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”

The director of the World Trade Organization, Roberto Azevedo, responded coolly, saying, “A trade war is in no one’s interests.”

Currency markets 

The currency market responded with a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar against most other major currencies. It ended the day at its lowest level against the yen in two years. The euro gained a half-percent against the dollar Friday.

And the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the trading week with its fourth decline in as many days, ending at 24,538.06. The Nasdaq and S&P 500, however, rose slightly after a three-day losing streak.

Trump spent Friday defending his threat to impose the tariffs, saying potential trade conflicts can be beneficial to the United States.

A Japanese government official told VOA that Tokyo “has explained several times to the U.S. government our concerns,” but declined to comment further on any ongoing discussions with Washington.

“While we are aware of the president’s statement, we understand that the official decision has not been made yet,” the Japanese official said. “If the U.S. is going to implement any measures, we expect the measures be WTO-rules consistent.”

Trump said Thursday the tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imports will be in effect for a long period of time. He said the measure will be signed “sometime next week.”

In 2017, Canada, Brazil, South Korea and Mexico accounted for nearly half of all U.S. steel imports. That year, Chinese steel accounted for less than 2 percent of overall U.S. imports.
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President Donald Trump will spend the weekend at his resort in Florida after a busy if not chaotic week that saw the president assert himself on a range of issues including gun violence, international trade and the opioid crisis. Trump is often eager to seize the spotlight, but the results are often unpredictable, as we hear from VOA National correspondent Jim Malone.
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U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports sparked concerns of a trade war Friday, with emerging markets trading lower and some world leaders threatening to take retaliatory measures.

Japan’s Nikkei share average fell to a more than two-week low Friday. The Nikkei ended 2.5 percent lower at 21,181.64 points, its lowest closing since Feb. 14.

“Automakers will have to bear the cost, and they may also have to raise prices while auto sales are already sluggish,” said Takuya Takahashi, a strategist at Daiwa Securities. “This isn’t looking good to the auto sector.”

​China, EU, Canada react

China on Friday expressed “grave concern” about the apparent U.S. trade policy but had no immediate response to Trump’s announcement that he will increase duties on steel and aluminum imports.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker denounced Trump’s trade plan as “a blatant intervention to protect U.S. domestic industry.” He said the EU would take retaliatory measures, it Trump implements his plan.

Canada said it would “take responsive measures” to protect its trade interests and workers if the restrictions are imposed on its steel and aluminum products.

Trump said Thursday the tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imports will be in effect for a long period of time. He said the measure will be signed “sometime next week.”

The trade war talk had stocks closing sharply lower on Wall Street.

The American International Automobile Dealers Association said Trump’s tariff plans would increase prices substantially.

“This is going to have fallout on our downstream suppliers, particularly in the automotive, machinery and aircraft sectors,” said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade official. “What benefits one industry can hurt another. What saves one job can jeopardize another,” she said.

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the president’s decision “shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.” She said Trump had talked about the trade plans “for decades.”

Republicans speak out

Not all of Trump’s fellow Republican politicians agreed with his trade war talk.

Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska said, “You’d expect a policy this bad from a leftist administration, not a supposedly Republican one.”

A spokesman for House Speaker Paul Ryan said the House majority leader hoped the president would “consider the unintended consequences of this idea and look at other approaches before moving forward.”

Trump posted on Twitter Thursday about trade policy.

At the Thursday meeting, President Trump said the NAFTA trade pact and the World Trade Organization have been disasters for the United States. He asserted “the rise of China economically was directly equal to the date of the opening of the World Trade Organization.”

Trump told officials from steel and aluminum companies that the United States “hasn’t been treated fairly by other countries, but I don’t blame the other countries.”

In 2017, Canada, Brazil, South Korea and Mexico accounted for nearly half of all U.S. steel imports. That year, Chinese steel accounted for less than 2 percent of overall U.S. imports.

President Trump said he has a lot of respect for Chinese President Xi Jinping, and when he was in China, he told President Xi, “I don’t blame you, if you can get away with almost 500 billion dollars a year off of our country, how can I blame you? Somebody agreed to these deals. Those people should be ashamed of themselves for what they let happened.”

Xi’s top economic adviser, Liu He, is set to visit the White House Thursday to meet with top administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Trump’s chief economic adviser Gary Cohn.

A White House official speaking on condition of anonymity told Reuters that they expect a “frank exchange of views” and will focus on “the substantive issues.”

Ryan L. Hass, the David M. Rubenstein Fellow at John L. Thornton China Center and the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings Institution told VOA he believes in the best-case scenario, Liu’s visit will assure both sides that “they are committed to solving underlying problems in the bilateral trade relationship.” Hass noted, “In such a scenario, both sides would agree on the problems that need to be addressed, the framework for addressing them, and the participants and timeline for concluding negotiations.”

Hass said if Liu’s visit fails to exceed the White House’s expectations, then the probability of unilateral U.S. trade actions against China will go up.

“If the U.S. takes unilateral actions, China likely will respond proportionately, and that could set off a tit-for-tat cycle leading to a trade war,” Hass said.
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U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports sparked concerns of a trade war Friday, with emerging markets trading lower and some world leaders threatening to take retaliatory measures.

Japan’s Nikkei share average fell to a more than two-week low Friday. The Nikkei ended 2.5 percent lower at 21,181.64 points, its lowest closing since Feb. 14.

“Automakers will have to bear the cost, and they may also have to raise prices while auto sales are already sluggish,” said Takuya Takahashi, a strategist at Daiwa Securities. “This isn’t looking good to the auto sector.”

​China, EU, Canada react

China on Friday expressed “grave concern” about the apparent U.S. trade policy but had no immediate response to Trump’s announcement that he will increase duties on steel and aluminum imports.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker denounced Trump’s trade plan as “a blatant intervention to protect U.S. domestic industry.” He said the EU would take retaliatory measures, it Trump implements his plan.

Canada said it would “take responsive measures” to protect its trade interests and workers if the restrictions are imposed on its steel and aluminum products.

Trump said Thursday the tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imports will be in effect for a long period of time. He said the measure will be signed “sometime next week.”

The trade war talk had stocks closing sharply lower on Wall Street.

The American International Automobile Dealers Association said Trump’s tariff plans would increase prices substantially.

“This is going to have fallout on our downstream suppliers, particularly in the automotive, machinery and aircraft sectors,” said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade official. “What benefits one industry can hurt another. What saves one job can jeopardize another,” she said.

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the president’s decision “shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.” She said Trump had talked about the trade plans “for decades.”

Republicans speak out

Not all of Trump’s fellow Republican politicians agreed with his trade war talk.

Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska said, “You’d expect a policy this bad from a leftist administration, not a supposedly Republican one.”

A spokesman for House Speaker Paul Ryan said the House majority leader hoped the president would “consider the unintended consequences of this idea and look at other approaches before moving forward.”

Trump posted on Twitter Thursday about trade policy.

At the Thursday meeting, President Trump said the NAFTA trade pact and the World Trade Organization have been disasters for the United States. He asserted “the rise of China economically was directly equal to the date of the opening of the World Trade Organization.”

Trump told officials from steel and aluminum companies that the United States “hasn’t been treated fairly by other countries, but I don’t blame the other countries.”

In 2017, Canada, Brazil, South Korea and Mexico accounted for nearly half of all U.S. steel imports. That year, Chinese steel accounted for less than 2 percent of overall U.S. imports.

President Trump said he has a lot of respect for Chinese President Xi Jinping, and when he was in China, he told President Xi, “I don’t blame you, if you can get away with almost 500 billion dollars a year off of our country, how can I blame you? Somebody agreed to these deals. Those people should be ashamed of themselves for what they let happened.”

Xi’s top economic adviser, Liu He, is set to visit the White House Thursday to meet with top administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Trump’s chief economic adviser Gary Cohn.

A White House official speaking on condition of anonymity told Reuters that they expect a “frank exchange of views” and will focus on “the substantive issues.”

Ryan L. Hass, the David M. Rubenstein Fellow at John L. Thornton China Center and the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings Institution told VOA he believes in the best-case scenario, Liu’s visit will assure both sides that “they are committed to solving underlying problems in the bilateral trade relationship.” Hass noted, “In such a scenario, both sides would agree on the problems that need to be addressed, the framework for addressing them, and the participants and timeline for concluding negotiations.”

Hass said if Liu’s visit fails to exceed the White House’s expectations, then the probability of unilateral U.S. trade actions against China will go up.

“If the U.S. takes unilateral actions, China likely will respond proportionately, and that could set off a tit-for-tat cycle leading to a trade war,” Hass said.
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First lady Melania Trump reportedly gained permanent residence in the United States through a visa program specifically for people with “extraordinary ability.”

The Washington Post reported Thursday that President Donald Trump’s wife in March 2001 was one of only five people from Slovenia to enter the U.S. through the EB-1 program, also referred to as the “Einstein visa” program.

The EB-1 program is reserved for people such as academic researchers and multinational business executives, or those in other fields, such as Olympic athletes and Oscar-winning actors, who have demonstrated “sustained national and international acclaim,” the Post reported. 

According to government statistics, only 3,376 of more than 1 million green cards in 2001 were issued through the EB-1 program.

The first lady was dating Donald Trump when she received her green card. The former model had been featured in runway shows in Europe and had been included in the swimsuit edition of Sports Illustrated.

With her green card, she was able to obtain U.S. citizenship as well as sponsor the legal residency of her parents, Viktor and Amalija Knavs. The Post reports they are close to receiving their citizenship.

That would mean that the Knavses were given legal status based on family reunification, also called “chain migration” by detractors, which President Trump has repeatedly called on Congress to end:

Michael Wildes, the attorney for Melania Trump and her family, defended her selection for the EB-1 program.

“Mrs. Trump was more than amply qualified and solidly eligible,” he told the Post. “There is no reason to adjudicate her petition publicly when her privacy is so important to her.” 
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First lady Melania Trump reportedly gained permanent residence in the United States through a visa program specifically for people with “extraordinary ability.”

The Washington Post reported Thursday that President Donald Trump’s wife in March 2001 was one of only five people from Slovenia to enter the U.S. through the EB-1 program, also referred to as the “Einstein visa” program.

The EB-1 program is reserved for people such as academic researchers and multinational business executives, or those in other fields, such as Olympic athletes and Oscar-winning actors, who have demonstrated “sustained national and international acclaim,” the Post reported. 

According to government statistics, only 3,376 of more than 1 million green cards in 2001 were issued through the EB-1 program.

The first lady was dating Donald Trump when she received her green card. The former model had been featured in runway shows in Europe and had been included in the swimsuit edition of Sports Illustrated.

With her green card, she was able to obtain U.S. citizenship as well as sponsor the legal residency of her parents, Viktor and Amalija Knavs. The Post reports they are close to receiving their citizenship.

That would mean that the Knavses were given legal status based on family reunification, also called “chain migration” by detractors, which President Trump has repeatedly called on Congress to end:

Michael Wildes, the attorney for Melania Trump and her family, defended her selection for the EB-1 program.

“Mrs. Trump was more than amply qualified and solidly eligible,” he told the Post. “There is no reason to adjudicate her petition publicly when her privacy is so important to her.” 
…

The White House on Thursday faced fresh speculation about the future of national security adviser H.R. McMaster, with officials sending mixed messages about his possible departure.

Amid a stream of staff leaving Donald Trump’s White House, NBC reported that the three-star general tasked with running White House security policy would, within months, be headed for the exit as well.

“We frequently face rumor and innuendo about senior administration officials,” White House spokesman Raj Shah said in response. “There are no personnel announcements at this time.”

That was followed up by a more categorical statement from McMaster’s spokesman, Michael Anton.

“I was just with President Trump and H.R. McMaster in the Oval Office. President Trump said that the NBC News story is fake news, and told McMaster that he is doing a great job,” Anton said.

NBC reported that a senior executive at U.S. automaker Ford, Stephen Biegun, was a possible replacement.

Biegun previously worked as national security adviser to former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, a Tennessee Republican, and worked in the George. W. Bush White House.

Trump and McMaster have had an uneasy relationship.

When the army general recently said there was “incontrovertible” evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, he was publicly upbraided by Trump.

“General McMaster forgot to say that the results of the 2016 election were not impacted or changed by the Russians,” Trump tweeted.

McMaster joined the administration in February last year, replacing Michael Flynn, who has since been indicted by Robert Mueller, who is investigating Russia’s role in the 2016 election and whether there were connections between the Trump campaign and Moscow.

Last week, CNN reported that the Pentagon was looking at moving McMaster back into the military.
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The White House on Thursday faced fresh speculation about the future of national security adviser H.R. McMaster, with officials sending mixed messages about his possible departure.

Amid a stream of staff leaving Donald Trump’s White House, NBC reported that the three-star general tasked with running White House security policy would, within months, be headed for the exit as well.

“We frequently face rumor and innuendo about senior administration officials,” White House spokesman Raj Shah said in response. “There are no personnel announcements at this time.”

That was followed up by a more categorical statement from McMaster’s spokesman, Michael Anton.

“I was just with President Trump and H.R. McMaster in the Oval Office. President Trump said that the NBC News story is fake news, and told McMaster that he is doing a great job,” Anton said.

NBC reported that a senior executive at U.S. automaker Ford, Stephen Biegun, was a possible replacement.

Biegun previously worked as national security adviser to former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, a Tennessee Republican, and worked in the George. W. Bush White House.

Trump and McMaster have had an uneasy relationship.

When the army general recently said there was “incontrovertible” evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, he was publicly upbraided by Trump.

“General McMaster forgot to say that the results of the 2016 election were not impacted or changed by the Russians,” Trump tweeted.

McMaster joined the administration in February last year, replacing Michael Flynn, who has since been indicted by Robert Mueller, who is investigating Russia’s role in the 2016 election and whether there were connections between the Trump campaign and Moscow.

Last week, CNN reported that the Pentagon was looking at moving McMaster back into the military.
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