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US Trade Body Backs Canadian Plane Maker Bombardier Against Boeing

A U.S. trade commission on Friday handed an unexpected victory to Bombardier Inc. against Boeing Co., in a ruling that allows the Canadian company to sell its newest jets to U.S. airlines without heavy duties, sending Bombardier’s shares up 15 percent.

The U.S. International Trade Commission’s unanimous decision was the latest twist in U.S.-Canadian trade relations that have been complicated by disputes over tariffs on Canadian lumber and U.S. milk and President Donald Trump’s desire to renegotiate or even abandon the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Trump, who did not weigh in on the dispute personally, took his “America First” message to the world’s elite on Friday, telling a summit that the United States would “no longer turn a blind eye” to what he described as unfair trade practices.

The ITC commissioners voted 4-0 that Bombardier’s prices did not harm Boeing and discarded a U.S. Commerce Department recommendation to slap a near 300 percent duty on sales of the company’s 110- to 130-seat CSeries jets for five years. It did not give a reason immediately.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement that the commission’s finding “shows how robust our system of checks

and balances is.”

Boeing’s shares closed flat.

“It’s reassuring to see that facts and evidence matter,” said Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “This part of the trade policy process works unimpeded despite President Trump’s protectionist rhetoric.”

Removing ‘uncertainty’

The decision will also help Bombardier sell the CSeries in the United States by removing “a huge amount of uncertainty,” at a time when its Brazilian rival Embraer is bringing its new E190-E2 jet to market, a source familiar with the

Canadian plane and train maker’s thinking said.

The ITC had been expected to side with Chicago-based Boeing. The company alleged it was forced to discount its 737 narrow-bodies to compete with Bombardier, which it said used government subsidies to dump the CSeries during the 2016 sale of 75 jets at “absurdly low” prices to Delta Air Lines.

Bombardier called the trade case self-serving after Boeing revealed on December 21 that it was discussing a “potential combination” with Embraer. Boeing denied the trade case was motivated by those talks.

Boeing to look at options

The dispute may not be over. “This can still be appealed by Boeing,” Andrew Leslie, parliamentary secretary to Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia

Freeland, told reporters in Montreal.

Boeing said it would not consider such options before seeing the ITC’s reasoning in February.

But Boeing said it was disappointed the commission did not recognize “the harm that Boeing has suffered from the billions of dollars in illegal government subsidies that the Department of Commerce found Bombardier received and used to dump aircraft in the U.S. small single-aisle airplane market.”

Bombardier, Delta and the U.S. consumer advocacy group Travelers United all called the ITC decision a victory for consumers and airlines.

The decision may end up helping Trump’s goal of boosting U.S. jobs as the CSeries jets for U.S. airlines will be built in the United States rather than Canada.

Through a venture with European planemaker Airbus SE, which has agreed to take a majority stake in the CSeries this year, Bombardier plans to assemble CSeries jets in Alabama to be sold to U.S. carriers starting in 2019.

Sweet surprise

Airbus Chief Executive Tom Enders promised to push ahead “full throttle” with the Alabama plans. “Nothing is sweeter than a surprise, a surprise victory,” he said.

The case had sparked trade tensions between the United States and its allies Canada and the United Kingdom. Ottawa last year scrapped plans to buy 18 Super Hornet fighter jets from Boeing.

The well-paid jobs associated with the CSeries are important both to Ottawa and the British government. Bombardier employs about 4,000 workers in Northern Ireland.

The British prime minister’s office said it welcomed the decision, “which is good news” for the British industry, while Canada’s innovation minister said the ITC came to the “right decision” on Bombardier.

Former ITC Chairman Dan Pearson praised the decision. “Not a single commissioner was willing to buy Boeing’s arguments,” he said. “I think ‘America First’ is a policy of the White House and the Commerce Department. But it’s not the policy of an independent agency [like the ITC].”

VOA Interview: Former Envoy Richardson on Rohingya Crisis

VOA’s Diplomatic Correspondent Cindy Saine interviewed former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson via Skype about his abrupt resignation from an international board that advises Myanmar on the Rohingya crisis.

Question: Do you prefer Ambassador Richardson or Governor Richardson?

Former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson: I think governor is better.

Q: Governor Richardson. First just to clarify, did you resign from the advisory board, or were you asked to leave, and more importantly, why did you leave?

Richardson: Well I resigned. They’re claiming I was fired but they were begging me to stay till the very last minute by the national security advisor. I resigned for two reasons – one, because I felt the advisory board was just whitewashing operation meant to validate the policies of the government of Myanmar. The second reason is an explosive reaction Aung San Suu Kyi had as I was trying to give her frank advice to deal fairly with the two Reuters journalist that had been imprisoned. That showed me she wasn’t interested in frank advice, and this is after thirty years of very strong friendship where we worked together for democracy. That has obviously been shattered by my resignation.

Q: Right, right. And it’s well documented you’ve have been a very good friend of Myanmar’s civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi for many, many years and she asked you to join the council. Was she herself I know that there were two Reuters Journalist were an issue. Was she herself also disparaging the United Nations, journalists and relief workers trying to get the facts and alleviate suffering in the area?

Richardson: Yes, certainly her chairman was. But she also in various conversations has disparaged the U.N., felt the U.N. was unfair to her – the human rights investigation especially. Disparaging the international media, disparaging human rights group saying that they are all against it. These are the people that worked with her and in that transition to democracy, that were her supporters, were in essence given her the Nobel Prize. She now feels an – “us against one situation,” “an us against them situation,” and has a siege mentality right now. She’s changed.

Q: Right I was going to ask if you were sort of blind sighted and really surprised by this and do you think she’s changed now that she is in a position of power? Or does she have a blind spot when it comes to the Rohingyas?

Richardson: No, I think she’s changed as she’s assumed power. She wants to get re-elected, she’s afraid to confront the military that basically handles national security issues like treatment of refugees, like I think they’ve been responsible for the atrocities. They have participated in the mass graves issue. Finding ways instead of helping the refugees move back to Myanmar, making it more difficult. Not guaranteeing safety. And I think she’s been afraid to confront them. There is a separation of power between the military and civilian government that she has. But she’s failed to exercise more leadership to push and tell the military that they can’t keep doing this. She doesn’t have control over them. But the fact that she not only doesn’t speak out but defends them is what has made her change. And I think these caused a lot of these problems that Myanmar has with the international community.

Q: What would you say to critics who say that Aung San Suu Kyi has to walk a fine line in her power-sharing position with Myanmar’s military rulers and the public criticism of her is counter-productive?

Richardson: Well I’m a politician. I know you have to balance the existing power centers – you can’t just attack anybody. But I think she’s overdone her consent in what the military has done. In stop defending them, exercise more leadership by saying – look military, we can’t continue torturing the Rohingya. Let’s find a way to deal with these very serious problems. Instead of constantly blaming the West, the international community, and the U.N., and the United States, and Canada, and the European Union. Instead of owning up to the problem she shifts blames to everybody else fails to deal with the issue by not confronting the military. Letting them basically run amok.

Q: Right. We just got word that the advisory board is now backing the government’s plan to repatriate Rohingya refugees. What is your feeling about that?

Richardson: Well I think that’s part of the whitewash. Look the government of Bangladesh, the United Nations human rights group say that this repatriation is not ready. And this is why the government of Bangladesh has delayed the repatriation because these refugees aren’t ensured of their safety. They’re probably thinking they’re gonna end up in mass graves. They have no guarantees about their citizenship. They should be given a path to citizenship. There’s no guarantee that they’re gonna be able to go back to their homes safely. Their homes have been destroyed and they’re down so – I think this is another incidence where this is a whitewash. And just to conclude on this issue – the advisory board met with Aung San Suu Kyi secretly without me. They didn’t want me there because they didn’t want hear my candid advice. That is what broke the camel – the stroke that broke the camel’s back. They don’t want my advice – I leave. That’s why I left.

Q: Right, right. Do you think the Trump administration is doing enough to help the Rohingyas?

Richardson: Yeah, I got to say the Trump administration has spoken out for internal investigations to treat the Rohingyas properly. They came out early to release the journalist. I was briefed by the American ambassador. About a month ago, Secretary (of State Rex) Tillerson called me and told me what they were doing. Yeah I think the Trump administration – the State Department is doing well on this issue. I think as long as they keep it away from the president, they’re doing OK.

Q: What do you think it be done to get those two journalists released?

Richardson: Well there has to be more international pressure. I think Aung San Suu Kyi and the military have to say – look this is not helping us internationally. There is a way this can happen. The attorney general has pardon power. I think they should exercise this immediately. This is a nightmare for the image of the Myanmar government. Plus it’s unfair to the journalist – they were set up. They violated no official secrets laws. They didn’t disclose anything. They discovered mass graves and it was done by Rohingya and non-Rohingya people, i.e. the military. So get it over with. But I think more international pressure, but mainly the two main actors – the commander of the military and Aung San Suu Kyi to have a public or secret meeting and get this off the table. This is hurting the country enormously.

Q: Right, Right. One more if I may on North Korea. What do you think of the Trump administration’s position on that? And if you asked, you’ve done it before, you’ve been there before. Would you be willing to try and go and negotiate with the North Korean president?

Richardson: I would and I told the Trump administration I’m ready to do it but I think the way to do it is I’m not going to get mixed up in their nuclearization talks. That should be done through official channels. But I think there is soft power. I’ve offered on humanitarian grounds, find ways to exchange the recovery of American serviceman in the Korean War, Korean American family reunification issues. I think what the North and South have done on this Olympic issue makes a lot of sense, bringing athletes together. Maybe that’ll create a path for a negotiation. So I think the Trump administration – I’ll give them credit for working with China, have China put stronger sanctions. I don’t think that’s going to do the trick – I give them credit for that. I don’t give the president credit for tweeting and making policy on the go – calling on Kim Jong Un “the rocket man” and I’ve got a bigger nuclear button. I don’t like Kim Jong Un also insulting the American president. They should step aside and let their diplomats and negotiator negotiate no preconditions, just to start talks.

Q: Right. Thank you so much, ambassador. Anything else you’d like to say we didn’t cover?

Richardson: No you got it all.

Saine: Okay. Real pleasure talking to you sir.

Q: Yes. So we talked – what the State Department is doing on Myanmar. Do you think the United States should reimpose sanctions on Myanmar?

Richardson: No I don’t think so. I – sanctions, economic sanctions particularly hurt poor people. I’m very fond of the Myanmar people. I don’t think they’re responsible for this travesty. Maybe targeted sanctions on some of the military at some point. But I don’t think the international community should turn its back on Aung San Suu Kyi at this time. Now if this continues, something has to happen. I think the answer is engagement. The West – the international institutions should reach out to Aung San Suu Kyi and she should do the same. Reach some kind of accommodation. Ease tensions and find ways to feel honorably and humanely with these refugees that are being devastated right now.

Q: Right and I hope this is not too personal but do you feel like you could still have the relationship with Aung San Suu Kyi to reach back to her?

Richardson: Well I’d be prepared to be helpful but right now no. She’s probably furious at me. It’s probably going to last a long time. I don’t think I would try to get a Visa there anyway. Yeah but I love the country. I’ve been so involved with the country and her and I’ve invest a lot of my foundation activity. My activity as a diplomat. Yeah but right now no. I think there has to be a big cooling off. It may be permanent but I realize that. What I did was a small (inaudible)–that even her friends are turning on it. That she has to get a frank advice from a friend. If she’s not prepared to do that, that’s going to be bad for her and Myanmar.

Saine: Right thank you. If your ever in D.C., we would love to have you again for a sit down interview.

US Democrats Say Key to 2018 Election Wins Is Grass-roots Action

Yasmin Radjy finished graduate studies at one of the country’s top schools, Harvard University, and began mobilizing local efforts in Virginia to elect Democratic, progressive candidates.

Radjy said she soon learned that bookwork often doesn’t equate to real life. 

“They [Harvard professors] taught me a lot of things that didn’t work in [the election of] 2016,” she said. She said a simple strategy would win the midterm elections for the opposition Democratic Party in 2018: talking to voters and listening to their concerns.

That type of grass-roots campaigning is taking place across the country, and Democratic organizers say recent local elections have shown that it works.

A transgender woman, Danica Roem, will serve in the Virginia House of Delegates after defeating a Republican incumbent. Another woman, Jennifer Carroll Foy, gave birth to premature twins during her campaign and was elected to the Virginia House of Delegates with both babies still in the hospital.

Radjy said that grass-roots volunteers need to be trained to customize their pitches for non-typical candidates. “You can’t take them off the shelf and expect them to act the right way,” she said.

WATCH: Yasmin Radjy on Returning to Campaign Basics

Republican activism

President Donald Trump’s Republican Party also understands the importance of grass-roots activism, owing its current grip on power in part to the enthusiasm of tea party supporters who have advocated vigorously for conservative causes since 2009.

The movement took root as a reaction to measures introduced by then-President Barack Obama to help homeowners wiped out by the 2008 recession, and it gained strength in opposition to Democratic-sponsored legislation that gave government a larger role in the health care industry.

Tea party activists helped carry the Republicans to their unexpected success in the 2016 elections, when Trump’s earthy, populist rhetoric helped the party win not only the White House but also both chambers of Congress.

But that same rhetoric infuriated many left-leaning voters, especially women who vented their anger the day after Trump’s inauguration by staging the Women’s March of 2017, one of the largest protests in the history of the nation.

Now the energy seems to be more with the Democrats and especially women, who are running for office in unprecedented numbers. Almost 400 female candidates are running in the 2018 congressional elections.

Organizers say much of that anger has been channeled to the local level, where large numbers of liberals and especially women are running for mayoral offices, city councils and state legislatures.

The winner of any contest is “determined by the number of activists on the respective side,” acknowledged Republican Morton Blackwell, who is in his eighth four-year term as a Republican National Committee member from Virginia. 

Blackwell admitted that the Republicans have fallen behind Democrats of late and need more and better on-the-ground volunteers.

On the Democratic side, local groups like the DC Grassroots Coordinating Committee, supported by the Woman’s National Democratic Club, are holding regular meetings to teach organizers how to train grass-roots volunteers leading up to the November elections. The test for organizers is maintaining that vigor over the next 10 months.

Democratic momentum

Jean Gearon founded the Maryland-based Women’s Alliance for Democracy & Justice, a group that strives to empower women politically. Gearon said volunteers need to feel they are being effective, so her group keeps things simple.

When training her volunteers, she drafts simple scripts and gives them phone numbers, explaining everything. “Here’s what you want to say about fracking,” she gives as an example. “Here’s where you sign your name.”

Democrats still face tough odds in trying to break the Republican hold on power. After Congress passed a sweeping tax plan and Trump reached the first anniversary of his presidency, Republicans gave him an 87 percent approval rating in a Gallup Poll.

For 25 years, Guy Short, who lives in Erie, Colorado, and is vice president of fundraising with Campaign Solutions, has advised and managed Republican political campaigns and groups at all levels of government. He predicted that 2018 would be an election won with those staunch Republicans.

“We need to motivate and turn out the base,” he said. “This year, significant amounts of money are needed in order to compete in what’s a very big playing field.”

Short said Republicans were significantly ahead of Democrats in fundraising, but Blackwell said he thought Republicans would need more than money to win the midterm elections. If money were the key factor, he said, “Jeb Bush would have been the Republican nominee for president in 2016 and Hillary Clinton would have crushed Donald Trump for president.”

​Economy’s impact

Blackwell said the economy, which he predicted will improve throughout the year, would give his party a boost. “In just a few days, the paychecks of employees across the country are going to show a significant benefit [from the federal tax cut]. Ninety percent of the people are going to get more income, so that is going to have an impact.”

WATCH: Morton Blackwell on the Political Effects of the US Economy

In a January CBS News Nation Tracker survey, 67 percent said the U.S. economy was the same or doing well. Yet, 54 percent did not credit Trump with the improvement, while 46 percent said he had contributed to the economy doing well.

In the Gallup Poll, only 5 percent of Democratic voters approved of Trump’s performance. “Democrats are motivated by one thing and one thing only,” Short said, “and that is they hate Trump. That’s not enough.”

But Democrats said that’s exactly what has catapulted new candidates, new volunteers, and new voters into the spotlight.

Trump Warns Rivals About Trade Practices in Davos Speech

President Donald Trump has warned that the United States will no longer tolerate unfair trade practices and will always put America first in future trade deals. Giving the closing speech at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos on Friday, Trump lauded the performance of the U.S. economy under his leadership. The speech, however, was overshadowed by further controversy over alleged links between the president’s campaign team and Russia. Henry Ridgwell reports.

Trump: US Won’t Turn Blind Eye to Unfair Trade

U.S. President Donald Trump warned trading partners on Friday that Washington would no longer tolerate unfair trade, saying predatory practices were

distorting markets.

“The United States will no longer turn a blind eye to unfair trade practices,” Trump told chief executives, bankers and political leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “We cannot have free and open trade if some countries

exploit the system at the expense of others,” he added.

 

Trump Proves That in Diplomacy, Body Language as Revealing as Words

Last year it was tight-gripped hand-wrestling between Donald Trump and France’s Emmanuel Macron that attracted media attention. Neither male leader seemed to want to be the first to let go during their first face-to-face meeting in July, resulting in what was dubbed the “never-ending handshake.”

On Thursday, it was the U.S. leader’s prolonged Davos handshake with Britain’s Theresa May that excited fevered media speculation with the British press seeing it as an expression of how the recently troubled ‘special relationship’ between Britain and the United States is back on track.

The Trump-May handshake was analyzed by the European media almost as much as the grab-and-pull power pump between Trump and Macron that lasted 30-seconds and came across to some as a tussle between Alpha males. The warm handshake between the U.S. and British leaders, according to commentators, reinforced the friendly words between the two, who talked about how the two countries are joined at the hip and even the shoulder.

Tabloid newspapers in London plastered photographs of the handshake on their front-pages.

The Daily Express blazoned the question: “Has May ‘tamed’ Trump?” And the newspaper quoted a body-language expert who commented that Trump arrived for the World Economic Summit in Davos, Switzerland, “like a posturing prizefighter entering the ring but during his press conference with May he stopped showboating and looked truly respectful.”

She added that “he used direct eye contact” when he remarked at the news conference to May “rather romantically that ‘I will always be there for you – you know that’ and he produced the most normal handshake of his presidency so far.”

Britain’s Sky News also turned to a body-language expert to interpret the first meeting between the two leaders since their public clash over the president’s re-tweeting in November of a British far-right anti-Muslim campaigner, which earned a rebuke from May.

“A love-in,” pronounced the broadcaster’s satisfied Cordelia Lynch.

Handshake analysis

Why is a handshake so important? Transatlantic ties have taken on even greater importance for Britain as it struggles to shape a post-Brexit future. A trade deal with the United States could help offset the costs of leaving the European Union, Britain’s biggest trading partner, and May’s aides say a stronger alliance with America is critical to making a success of Brexit.

Hence the relief of both British officials and the country’s media at the public displays of affection between May and Trump in Davos only weeks after the U.S. leader canceled a planned trip to London next month for the official opening of a new U.S. embassy building in the British capital.

That cancellation followed a series of clashes between the pair including over Iran and intelligence leaks. The handshake was seized by the British as a public prize — an affirmation of sincerity.

But should a handshake be laden with so much importance?

Body-language has long been seen as an important element in diplomacy. “Communication is to diplomacy as blood is to the human body,” academics Christer Jönsson and Martin Hall noted in a study emphasizing that non-verbal language is as important as what is spoken during diplomatic encounters.

Body language

In 2014, USA Today revealed that the Pentagon had established a research team to study the body movements of Russian President Vladimir Putin and other world leaders in order to better understand them, assess their sincerity and to predict their possible future actions.

According to an official with the Office of Net Assessment (ONA), “the goal is to learn about the physical movements of national leaders and determine if these can be used to gain insight about a leaders’ attitudes, mindset, etc. ONA does not make policy recommendations, so we cannot assert with any certainty how the studies have been used by policy-makers.”

France’s Macron certainly vested a lot in his handshake with Trump, admitting on French television that he viewed it as a “moment of truth.”

European officials and the continent’s media appear obsessed by Trump’s body language — more than with any other recent U.S. leader.

Some commentators say that’s because Trump’s body language appears to be more distinct and unpredictable than his predecessors.’ Others suggest it is because they are still trying to take the measure of a politician, who has upended U.S. politics and foreign policy and defied expectations and norms since he entered the race for the White House and pulled off an upset win. His governing style has been as unusual as his campaigning tactics.

A former Trump aide, Sam Nunberg, argued last year that in fact Trump invites the speculation and knows what he’s doing with body language. “I just think the president is very cognizant of the optics of what it looks like at these multi-lateral meetings with world leaders,” he told the Huffington Post website. “There is nobody who is a better showman,” he added.

 

Sessions Takes Credit for Reversing Crime Wave; Criminologists Disagree

U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions is claiming credit for beginning the end of what President Donald Trump has termed “American Carnage,” a spike in violent crime during 2015 and 2016, the final two years of the Obama administration.

In an opinion piece published Tuesday in USA Today, Sessions pointed to preliminary FBI data showing that violent crime in the United States decreased by 0.9 percent during the first half of last year and that the increase in the murder rate had slowed.

“When President Trump was inaugurated, he made the American people a promise: ‘This American carnage stops right here and stops right now,’” Sessions wrote. “It is a promise that he has kept.”

​Too soon to know

But criminologists say it’s too early to read anything into the reported six-month decline in crime and that there is little evidence to support Sessions’ claim that Trump administration policies contributed to it.

“It’s obviously positive if violent crime goes down, but I think drawing conclusions about annual trends or a ‘leveling out’ based on six months of data is premature,” said New Orleans-based crime analyst Jeff Asher. “I’m not sure the data shows anything has changed.”

The attorney general attributed the decline in part to increased federal prosecution of all manner of violent criminals: gang members, human traffickers and firearms violators.

Behind decline

But Thomas Abt, a former federal prosecutor now a senior fellow at Harvard Law School and Kennedy School of Government, noted that the decline came before Trump announced his first wave of U.S. attorneys in June.

“It’s simply not honest to say that aggressive federal prosecution was responsible for the crime decline when the federal prosecutors that Trump nominated weren’t even in office at the time,” Abt said.

What is more, he said, about 90 percent of criminal prosecutions in the United States are handled by local and state courts, not federal ones.

“The argument that Sessions seems to be making, which is that what we do with our 10 percent is having a big impact on the 90 percent, is a little hard to believe,” Abt said.

​Slowdown in ‘murder rate’

According to the FBI data, the number of murders rose by 1.5 percent during the first six months of last year, compared with an increase of 5.2 percent during the same period in 2016, a slowdown Sessions highlighted as an achievement.

Jeff Asher, a Louisiana-based criminologist, dismissed the change as insignificant.

“I’m not sure the data shows anything has changed,” Asher said. He added that the figures still leave the country’s murder rate about 20 percent higher than it was in 2014.

The Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment.

Through much of the past year, Sessions has frequently cited FBI data on increases in violent crime in 2015 and 2016 to warn about a festering crime epidemic and to push his tough-on-crime agenda.

In February, he set up a task force on violent crime reduction and public safety. In March, he directed federal prosecutors to prioritize targeting violent criminals. And in May, he ordered U.S. attorneys to “pursue the most serious, readily provable offense” with the lengthiest sentences in all criminal cases.”

Citing an 11 percent increase in the murder rate in 2015, Sessions told a group of law enforcement officers in August that “violent crime is back with a vengeance.”

Fluctuation in data

But crime data fluctuate from year to year, and Abt said it is more helpful to look at three- to five-year increments of data for evidence of a trend.

“It’s premature to celebrate,” Abt said. “What happens month to month or year to year can change.”

Despite the upticks in 2015 and 2016, crime in the United States remains well below its peak in the early 1990s.

In 1991, about 5,850 crimes were committed per 100,000 Americans. In 2015, the overall crime rate stood at 2,857 per 100,000 residents.

Criminologists attribute the decline to a variety of factors, from improved policing to community engagement to increased incarceration.

Rosy US Economic Report Expected Friday

The U.S. economy likely maintained a brisk pace of growth in the fourth quarter, driven by an acceleration in consumer and business spending, which could set it on course to attain the Trump administration’s 3 percent annual growth target this year.

Gross domestic product probably increased at a 3.0 percent annual rate also boosted by a rebound in homebuilding investment and a pickup in government outlays, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The strong growth pace would come despite anticipated drags from trade and inventory investment.

It would follow a 3.2 percent pace of expansion in the third quarter and mark the first time since 2004 that the economy enjoyed growth of 3 percent or more for three straight quarters.

The Commerce Department will publish its advance fourth-quarter GDP estimate Friday morning.

​Global rebound

The economy’s growth spurt is part of a synchronized global rebound that includes the euro zone and Asia.

It has also benefited from President Donald Trump’s promise of hefty tax cuts, which was fulfilled in December when the Republican-controlled U.S. Congress approved the largest overhaul of the tax code in 30 years.

Despite the economy’ strong performance in the last three quarters of 2017, overall growth for the year is expected to come in around 2.3 percent, because of a weak first quarter.

That would still be an acceleration from the 1.5 percent logged in 2016. Economists expect annual GDP growth will hit the government’s 3 percent target this year, spurred in part by a weak dollar, rising oil prices and strengthening global economy.

Modest boost from tax cuts

While the corporate income tax rate has been slashed to 21 percent from 35 percent and taxes for households have also been lowered, economists see only a modest boost to GDP growth as the fiscal stimulus is coming at a time when the economy is almost at full employment.

“We are encouraged by the current breadth of economic strength and … we expect the pace of U.S. real GDP to accelerate from the expansion average, increasing 3.0 percent in 2018,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Fed hawks

Robust economic growth has been accompanied by record gains on the stock market and a strong labor market, with the unemployment rate falling seven-tenths of a percentage point last year to a 17-year low of 4.1 percent. Economists said this could put the Federal Reserve on a more aggressive path of interest rate increases than is being anticipated.

“I think that gives the hawks at the Fed more ammunition to say we should contemplate a more aggressive path on rates going forward,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West Economics in San Francisco.

The U.S. central bank has forecast three rate hikes this year, the same number as in 2017.

Consumer spending

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have increased by as much as a 3.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter. That would be the quickest pace in three years and would follow a 2.2 percent rate of growth in the July-September quarter.

Consumer spending is likely to remain supported by rising household wealth, thanks to the stock market rally and higher house prices, tax cuts and firming wage growth as companies compete for workers and some states raise the minimum wage.

“Since the election the consumer has been exuding confidence, which is the willingness to spend money, and we see he has got even the ability to spend money too because personal income is creeping up,” said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America in Baltimore.

“So, you have the willingness and ability to spend. We think consumption is going to pick up and drive the economy.”

Business investment in equipment is expected to have picked up from the third-quarter’s 10.8 percent growth pace. Spending on equipment is likely to be underpinned this year by the corporate income tax cuts and recent increase in crude oil prices.

Investment in homebuilding is expected to have rebounded after contracting for two straight quarters. An acceleration is expected in government spending from the July-September period’s pedestrian 0.7 percent growth pace.

Trade a drag

But trade was likely a drag on GDP growth as the burst in consumer spending was probably satiated with imports, offsetting a rise in exports, which is being driven by dollar weakness.

Economists at JPMorgan estimate that trade cut one percentage point from fourth-quarter GDP growth after adding 0.36 percentage point in the third quarter.

Inventory investment also probably subtracted from GDP growth last quarter after adding 0.79 percentage point to output in the prior period.

A Cheap Test for Potable Water

According to the World Health Organization, 2.1 billion people do not have access to safe drinking water. Many of them rely on wells and streams, making testing the water for bacterial contamination of crucial importance. However, cheap and reliable testing equipment is often not available or not affordable. Scientists in Britain and elsewhere are working on a simple, paper-based test that can confirm that water is safe in a matter of seconds. VOA’s George Putic reports.

Melinda Gates Launches Initiative to Reduce Poverty With New Technology

Melinda Gates has launched a high-level international commission to spark new thinking on how developing countries can best harness new technologies to reduce poverty. The wife of Microsoft founder and philanthropist Bill Gates spoke at the launch of the commission in Nairobi on Thursday.

The 11-member commission aims to promote use of technology to fight poverty across Africa and provide opportunities for the poor.

 

Melinda Gates, co-founder of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, said the newly launched commission would create opportunities for everyone.

 

“Let us unleash the opportunity here of all the amazing entrepreneurs, because they are the ones. The markets then will scale these great ideas and so we want to make sure that part of this world we are thinking about everybody, not just the people in the capital cities,” she said.

 

The commission will be co-chaired by Mrs. Gates, former Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Zimbabwean philanthropist Strive Masiywa.

 

The team with the help of researchers will deliberate new ideas like robotics, 3D printing, nanotechnology and blockchain to reduce poverty. They will also push for policy recommendations to help government navigate the ever changing technology.

 

According to the United Nations, half of the world poorest people live in Africa, and by 2030 about 400 million people in Africa will be poor.

 

The United Nations estimates 10 million people in Africa every year enter the job market. Experts note the continent needs more economic growth and employment to bring poverty down.

 

Strive Masiyiwa, who is founder of Econet Group, a telecommunications company, says Africa will have to create a better environment to benefit from the opportunities presented by technology.

 

“If we create the right incentives, we can begin to create African venture capitalists who support entrepreneurs on the ground, but they will require incentives, the entrepreneurs themselves need support we need to open our markets constantly deregulate. Deregulation must be a continuous process,” says Masiyiwa.

 

The everyday use of technology has spread in Africa, marked by an increase in mobile money marking and greater use of the internet.

 

But some experts question whether this progress has enhanced economic growth and improved people’s lives.

At Davos Forum, Trump Threatens to Cut Aid to Palestinians

U.S. President Donald Trump has questioned whether peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians will ever resume.

He made the remarks in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he accused the Palestinians of disrespecting the United States by refusing to meet with Vice-President Mike Pence during his recent visit to the region.

Trump threatened to cut aid money to the Palestinian territories.

“That money is on the table and that money is not going to them unless they sit down and negotiate peace.  Because I can tell you that Israel does want to make peace, and they’re going to have to want to make peace too or we’re going to have nothing to do with it any longer,” he told reporters.

WATCH: Trump on Palestinians

Atlantic ties

Earlier, Trump rejected what he called ‘false rumors’ of differences with British Prime Minister Theresa May and promised to boost trade after Britain’s EU exit.

“I look forward to the discussions that will be taking place are going to lead to tremendous increases in trade between our two countries which is great for both in terms of jobs,” he said, adding that Britain and the United States are “joined at the hip when it comes to the military”.

There is nervousness that Trump’s “America First” diplomacy is about to shake-up the global system that underpins the Davos summit.  Denmark’s Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said many Europeans are hoping for a positive message.

“I hope he will send a message, of course it will be ‘America First’, but if he could add on ‘But not alone’, or ‘But America First and we need cooperation with the rest of the world’ or whatever, that could be nice, because I think everybody needs to realize, whether you are a leader from a small or medium-sized or big countries that you can’t achieve what you want on your own.  The world is faced with a lot of challenges, which can only be solved with close international cooperation,” Rasmussen said Thursday.

Wealth distribution questioned

The general mood in Davos is upbeat, with the IMF forecasting synchronized global growth across 2018.  But behind the many closed doors, there is talk of danger ahead.  The background report to the WEF summit is titled “Fractures, Fears and Failures”, a reflection of growing global tension, says Inderjeet Parmar, professor of international politics at City University London.

“Even though international wealth and the wealth of states and the levels of economic growth and the GDPs of states have grown, the inequality of the distribution is having large scale political effects.”

The fortunes of the world’s wealthiest 500 billionaires rose by a quarter last year, while the poorest 50 percent of the world’s population did not increase their income.  Oxfam Executive Director Winnie Byanyima, in Davos for the summit, says it’s time for action.

“I’m here to tell big business and politicians that this is not natural, that it’s their actions and their policies that have caused it, and they can reverse it.”

Donald Trump is due to give the closing speech to the conference Friday.

“President Trump will be speaking to two audiences, the ones assembled in front of him, and his voter base at home.  And I have a strong feeling that he is going to give some strong words in order to show people back home that he has gone to the belly of the beast itself, of globalization, and told them that he stands for America and the American people,” says analyst Parmar.

Davos is braced for what could be a dramatic finale Friday.

US Senate Majority Leader Optimistic Immigration Talks to Produce Result

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday he is optimistic bipartisan negotiations on immigration, government funding and other issues will lead to results and strongly prefers an agreement before Feb. 8, when current funding for the government expires.

McConnell, a Republican, said in a Senate floor speech that a bipartisan, bicameral group was working on immigration, and he looked forward to seeing a promised White House framework on the matter next week. “I‘m optimistic,” he said, adding: “It is my strong preference that senators reach bipartisan agreement on these issues in advance of February 8.”

McConnell restated his own pledge that if a long-term agreement by Feb. 8 eludes the Senate, the chamber will proceed to legislation on immigration and border security, as long as the government stays open.

US, Mexican Unions to File NAFTA Complaint Over Labor Bill

U.S. and Mexican unions will formally complain to the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday that Mexico continues to violate NAFTA’s weak labor standards, a move that they hope will persuade U.S. negotiators to push for stronger rules.

The AFL-CIO told Reuters that it and Mexico’s UNT were filing the complaint with the U.S. office that oversees the labor accord attached to the North American Free Trade Agreement as U.S., Canadian, and Mexican negotiators met in Montreal to try to modernize the 1994 trade pact.

The complaint, seen by Reuters, argues that Mexico’s proposed labor law amendments to implement constitutional reforms will violate the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation. It seeks efforts from the United States to prevent the measures from being implemented and to demand changes to bring Mexico into compliance.

“Simply by promoting this bill, which aims to undermine the constitutional reforms, the government of Mexico brazenly violates the central obligations of the NAALC – namely to ‘provide high labor standards’ and to ‘strive to improve those standards,’” the AFL-CIO and Mexico’s UNT National Workers Union said in the complaint.

 Talks to overhaul the trade deal have been dogged by U.S. threats to withdraw from the pact, but the foreign ministers of Mexico and Canada on Thursday struck an upbeat note on future negotiations.

A key complaint is that NAFTA has failed to lift chronically low Mexican wages that have steadily drawn U.S. and Canadian factories and jobs to Mexico.

The trade pact has also allowed lower health and safety standards in Mexican factories to persist, but violations of the NAFTA labor cooperation agreement are not enforceable through trade sanctions.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office has made steep demands on automotive content to reverse job migration, but its labor proposals have disappointed unions and many Democratic Party lawmakers. The proposals stuck largely to language that Mexico and Canada previously agreed to in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal the Trump administration has abandoned.

“What the USTR put on the table is not acceptable and won’t get the job done,” said Celeste Drake, the AFL-CIO’s trade and globalization policy specialist.

She said past complaints to the Labor Department regarding Mexico’s violation of the labor cooperation pact have not led to major change and this one may be no different, but it aims to influence the negotiations by drawing attention to Mexico’s weak record on worker rights as negotiators discuss labor issues in Montreal.

“It gives ammunition at the negotiating table to U.S. and Canadian negotiators to say, ‘Your violations on NAFTA are not in the past, they’re not over with.’”

A USTR spokeswoman could not be immediately reached for comment.

Thus far, Canada led the call for higher labor standards in the talks, including making a proposal that the United States revise its so-called right-to-work laws in many southern states that help to limit the spread of unions in manufacturing.

Puerto Rico Warns of 11 Percent GDP Drop in new Fiscal Plan

Puerto Rico’s governor submitted a revised fiscal plan overnight Thursday that estimates the U.S. Caribbean territory’s economy will shrink by 11 percent and its population drop by nearly 8 percent next year.

The proposal doesn’t set aside any money to pay creditors in the next five years as the island struggles to restructure a portion of its $73 billion public debt. The original plan had set aside $800 million a year for creditors, a fraction of the roughly $35 billion due in interest and payments over the next decade.

The five-year plan also assumes Puerto Rico will receive at least $35 billion in emergency federal funds for post-hurricane recovery and another $22 billion from private insurance companies.

Some analysts view that assumption as risky given that the U.S. Treasury Department and U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency recently told Puerto Rico officials that they are temporarily withholding billions of dollars approved by Congress last year for post-hurricane recovery because they felt the island currently had sufficient funds.

A spokesman for Gerardo Portela, director of the island’s Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority, said he was not immediately available for comment.

The plan does not call for layoffs or new taxes. Instead, Gov. Ricardo Rossello once again called for labor and tax reforms and the privatization of the island’s power company to help generate revenue and promote economic development amid an 11-year recession. He noted that nearly half of the island’s 3.3 million inhabitants lived in poverty prior to the hurricane and that Puerto Rico still faces an 11 percent unemployment rate. Nearly half a million people have fled for the U.S. mainland in the past decade in search of jobs and a more affordable cost of living.

“We must work as a government to prevent this from happening, and that’s what we’re focused on,” he said.

Rossello said an original $350 million cut to the island’s 78 municipalities will not be immediately imposed as they struggle post-hurricane. Instead, he said they will receive more money than usual in upcoming years.

Rossello also called for reducing several taxes, including an 11.5 percent sales-and-use tax to 7 percent for prepared food. More than 30 percent of power customers remain in the dark more than four months after Hurricane Maria, forcing many to spend their dwindling savings on eating out.

A federal control board overseeing Puerto Rico’s finances has to approve of the plan, which it envisions doing by Feb. 23.

“The Oversight Board views implementing structural reforms and investing in critical infrastructure as key to restoring economic growth and increasing confidence of residents and businesses,” Natalie Jaresko, the board’s executive director, said in a statement Thursday. “Our focus in certifying the revised plans will be to ensure they reflect Puerto Rico’s post-hurricane realities.”

 

A Girl, a Stranger, and a Quest for Justice in China

The young woman, new to the grind of Chinese factory life, knew the man who called himself Kalen only by the photo on his chat profile. It showed him with a pressed smile holding a paper cup in a swank skyscraper somewhere late at night.

Yu Chunyan and her friends didn’t know what to make of him. Some thought his eyes were shifty. Others said he looked handsome in a heroic sort of way.

Yu was among the doubters. The daughter of factory workers, Yu paid her way through college by working in factories herself. She and thousands of other students had toiled through the summer of 2016 assembling iPhones at a supplier for Apple Inc., but they hadn’t been paid their full wages.

Kalen was offering to help – and asking nothing in return.

This struck Yu as suspicious. If there was one thing she had learned in her 23 years it was this: “There’s no free lunch.”

Disputes like these often don’t go well for workers in China. But over the years, suicides and sweatshop scandals have pushed some companies, like Apple, to reconsider their approach to workplace fairness.

Today, a growing number of brands, including Apple, Nike Inc., Gap Inc., Levi Strauss & Co., and the H&M Group prioritize transparency and take public responsibility for conditions throughout their global supply chains. Labor rights groups like the one Kalen worked for, China Labor Watch, can play a useful watchdog role for these companies, by helping them understand what’s really going on at their suppliers.

But not everyone has embraced this new approach.

When China Labor Watch confronted Ivanka Trump’s brand with charges of labor abuses at its Chinese suppliers, her company refused to engage. It made no public effort to investigate the allegations: forced overtime, pay as low as $1 an hour, and crude verbal and physical abuse – including one incident in which a man was hit in the head with the sharp end of a high-heeled shoe.

Ivanka Trump, who still owns but no longer closely manages her namesake brand, stayed silent. Neither she nor her brand would comment for this story.

Unlike Apple, her brand doesn’t publish the identities of its manufacturers. In fact, its supply chains have only grown more opaque since the first daughter took on her White House role.

But as the summer of 2016 was ending, Yu Chunyan had no idea she was about to get an education in geopolitics and corporate social responsibility. She wanted one thing only: her wages. And she saw one way to get them: The stranger with the odd English name.

Kalen and China Labor Watch would link Yu not just to Apple, but ultimately, to the daughter of the President of the United States. Their intersecting stories highlight the contrasting approaches Apple and Ivanka Trump’s brand have taken to workplace fairness – and the impact those decisions have had on the ground in China.

It would take Yu more than a year to discover who Kalen really was.

No help came

When Yu was still a baby, her parents went to work at a factory in one of the southern boomtowns of Guangdong province. As a child, entire years passed without a visit from her mother or father.

This was an ordinary enough fate in China, and Yu grew up bouncing between her grandparents’ homes in central China’s Henan province.

The first extraordinary thing that happened to Yu was her high school entrance exam. She aced it, despite her middling grades, scoring even higher than the known overachievers in class.

The shock of her accomplishment gave Yu a soaring sense of her own potential. She raced to tell her mother.

“Oh,” was her mother’s stony response.

Yu’s test score opened the possibility, unsettling to her parents, that she would not marry young, produce grandchildren and start earning money for the family.

Her parents regarded aspiration warily: Excellence would only lead to inflated expectations. Just the sort of thing, her parents feared, that could crush a person. Better to remain where you are, bound by a certain, riskless horizon.

Yu did not agree. “As long as I want something, I will get it,” she decided.

Her parents let her stay in school, but if Yu wanted to go to college, she would have to pay her own way.

And so she did. She enrolled in a college in Henan province. Ultimately, she wanted to do something creative, like design; in the meantime factory jobs weren’t a bad way to make money.

In July 2016, Yu took her place on the assembly line at Jabil Inc.’s Green Point factory in Wuxi, a city near Shanghai. She spent her 12-hour shift snapping the back cover of the iPhone 7 into a mold and passing it down the line.

“It seems simple,” Yu said. “But if you work the whole day doing this your hands will be really tired. Normally, it’s a job for a man.”

Her group’s production quota kept going up, climbing from 2,000 to 50,000 units a day, Yu said. She got dizzy. Her hands hurt. She thought: “When will it be over?”

In August 2016, she quit, ignoring admonitions that her pay would be docked 500 yuan ($79, at today’s rates) for leaving early.

Yu made the 12-hour train trip back to school in Henan and on Sept. 10, her final paycheck hit her bank account. It was an ugly surprise. She was 1,100 yuan short of the 4,930 yuan she expected. Her salary was supposed to cover her tuition. Now it didn’t.

“I was furious,” she said. “I thought that no matter what I would get my money back.”

She called the factory and the labor broker who had gotten her the job only to be informed of a range of surprising fees, some legitimate, others not.

Yu called the labor union at Green Point for help. “Useless,” she said. She called the local labor bureau, but no one picked up.

On Chinese social media, Yu found a chorus of despair as other students – the children of farmers, factory and construction workers – vented about being stiffed on WeChat, QQ and Weibo.

“Everyone had an attitude like, ‘Well, it has nothing to do with me,'” said Zhuang Huaqian, an electrical engineering student at Hunan University of Technology, who spent the summer assembling iPhones in a moon suit of dust-free clothing.

The head of one of the labor brokers in the dispute, Ding Yan, said his company had done nothing wrong. “Wages are our bottom line. We will never underpay them,” he said. “I wouldn’t risk this brand.”

Frustrated, the students took their case to the press. A few articles appeared detailing their complaints, but Yu and another student said postings began to disappear. Were they being censored, they wondered?

The local government published an article on an official Weibo account that said authorities acted swiftly and more than 2,100 students had been repaid. The post included complaint hotlines workers could call.

Chen Jianbin, head of Wuxi’s labor security supervision unit, said his team had to sort through verbal contracts, informal intermediaries and fake complaints apparently lodged by people paid to smear competing labor agencies.

“We were trying our best to help,” said Chen. “Those students’ lives were not easy.”

But many students hadn’t gotten their money back.

Beneath their fury was growing desperation. Every lever of redress they had tried failed them. They had appealed for help to forces they thought they could believe in – society, the government – but no help came.

‘The world is full of good people’

There was, however, one guy, who did offer help. He called himself Kalen.

Kalen had worked in a phone factory himself, 13 years earlier, polishing cheap landline phones for a Chinese brand at a factory in Shenzhen. Back then, he didn’t realize he was being underpaid until he wandered into the office of a local labor rights group one day and learned that he wasn’t earning the legal minimum wage.

That knowledge electrified him. He devoured books about labor rights in the group’s reading room as he prepared his case. Two months later, he won 3,000 yuan in back pay through a local arbitration panel.

Kalen wondered how many other workers out there were like him, ignorant of their rights. He quit his factory job and dedicated himself to teaching workers how to use China’s laws to protect themselves.

Kalen brought his evidence-based approach to China Labor Watch, a group many of the students had never heard of before. He told them about the group’s past work with Apple suppliers and taught them how to calculate what they were owed. He admonished them to be honest as he gathered details about working hours and pay from over 200 workers.

“Seek truth from facts,” he wrote them on QQ.

In September, China Labor Watch asked Apple to intervene. The company sent a local team to investigate, reporting that 2,501 students had received back wages.

But many said they still hadn’t been fully paid.

When Kalen asked for a volunteer to write a letter to Apple, Yu was torn: Could she get kicked out of school for speaking out?

“It was so hard for me to make this money,” she said. “As long as there was a little bit of hope left I wanted to try.” She stayed up past midnight writing down everything that had happened.

On Sept. 28, Li emailed Yu’s letter to Apple.

Five days later, Apple wrote back: It had done further investigation and would ensure workers got paid for their day of training and extra work during meal breaks.

“Jabil invested hundreds of hours of staff time to contact approximately 17,000 employees,” Eric Austermann, Jabil’s vice-president of social and environmental responsibility wrote in an email to AP. “Although often lacking an email address, phone number, or other standard contact information, Jabil located all but about 5 percent of these employees, all of whom have been paid in full.”

The workers received over 2.7 million yuan ($426,000, at today’s rates), according to Jabil Green Point and an October 2017 email from Apple to China Labor Watch.

Apple declined to the comment on the case.

The students’ payments came in a few hundred or thousand yuan at a time. This was money for school, for food, a way to stay out of debt. By the end of October, Yu had gotten back everything she was owed.

She was impressed. She amended the letter she had written for Kalen, turning it into a testimonial and a statement of personal intent. China Labor Watch posted it on its website.

“Due to this experience, I am confident that the world is full of good people, people who make selfless contributions,” Yu wrote. “I wish to join a public interest organization. I wish to help others.”

But China was changing. Hundreds of human rights lawyers and activists had been swept up in a crackdown against perceived threats to the ruling Communist Party. Those with foreign ties, like China Labor Watch, were viewed with particular suspicion.

Yu had yet to grasp the perils of her growing idealism.

It could have been me

After Chinese New Year, Yu moved to Shanghai, a city she had only seen in pictures, to take a job at an interior design company. In March 2017, five months after she’d received her back pay from the factory, Yu reconnected with Kalen on WeChat.

Kalen told her China Labor Watch might need people to work undercover.

China Labor Watch was closing in on factories that made Ivanka Trump merchandise, including Ganzhou Huajian International Shoe City Co.

But the thought of returning to the grind of factory life was more than she could stomach.

“I needed to push myself forward,” she said. She wanted to learn English, dress better, lose weight.

China Labor Watch ultimately sent two men to work undercover. The group obtained a video of a manager berating a worker for apparently arranging shoes in the wrong order.

“If I see them f—ing messed up again,” the manager yells, “I’ll beat you right here.” Another worker was left with blood dripping from his head after a manager hit him with the sharp end of a high heeled shoe, according to three eyewitnesses who spoke to the AP.

The Huajian Group, which runs the factory in Ganzhou, denied all the allegations as “completely not true to the facts, taken out of context, exaggerated.” In April, China Labor Watch laid out its initial findings in a letter to Ivanka Trump at the White House.

She did not respond.

Over the years, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Gap Inc., Target Corp., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other companies took China Labor Watch seriously enough to respond to criticisms or meet Li in person, according to emails and meeting notes reviewed by AP. Walt Disney Co. severed its relationship with at least one supplier after China Labor Watch exposed poor working conditions.

“We did an investigation on Apple because Apple is a big American company,” Li said. “If Apple changes, the other companies will follow. Now Ivanka is the most famous person among all these companies. If she can change, the other companies will too.”

But that plan backfired.

At the end of May, three China Labor Watch investigators were arrested, accused of illegally using secret cameras and listening devices.

One of them was investigator Hua Haifeng. Police had warned Hua to drop the Huajian investigation, but he pushed ahead anyway, Li said.

A wiry man not easily moved to alarm, Hua seemed to accept fear as the cost of his decision to live his life as an expression of his values.

In more than a decade working on labor rights in China, Hua had helped thousands of workers get back money they were owed, all the while half-wondering when he’d be forced to stop.

Now that he had, Hua, 36, was cut off from his wife and two young children.

Inside the Ganzhou City Detention Center, Hua shared a toothbrush with strangers. Locked in a cell so crowded there weren’t enough wooden boards to sleep on, Hua stretched out at night on a concrete floor next to a bucket that served as the toilet for around 20 men. The men added water and soap, hoping the bubbles might somehow take the stench out of human waste. It didn’t work.

It was the first time in China Labor Watch’s 17-year history that its investigators had been arrested. Police raided the group’s Shenzhen office and carried away computers and documents, Li said.

From his office in New York, Li worked frantically to get the men out of jail. He was convinced the shift in fortune was due to the target of their inquiry: a brand owned by the daughter of the U.S. president. But he had no proof.

Ivanka Trump – and her brand – said nothing about the arrests.

Where is Kalen?

Days after the arrest, Yu Chunyan took a new job at a design company in Shanghai, but something lingered from her experience at the Green Point factory. “I’d prefer work that can help more people,” she said.

She got a friend request from China Labor Watch’s Li Qiang. She messaged Kalen to check Li out.

Kalen never replied. She wondered what had happened to him.

On June 5, the U.S. State Department called for the immediate release of the three China Labor Watch investigators.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that other nations “have no right to interfere with our judicial sovereignty.” State-owned media reported that the trio had tried to steal trade secrets and sell them overseas.

Li Qiang wrote to Ivanka Trump at the White House on June 6, describing what he called “extreme working conditions” in her supply chain. “Your words and deeds can make a difference in these workers’ lives,” he wrote.

He got no reply.

Her brand has called its supply chain integrity “a top priority,” but also maintains that its suppliers are overseen by licensees – companies it contracts with to make tons of Ivanka Trump handbags, shoes and clothes.

The brand said its shoes had not been produced at the Huajian factory since March, though China Labor Watch obtained an April production schedule for nearly 1,000 pairs of Ivanka Trump shoes due in May.

In late June, after 30 days in jail, the three China Labor Watch investigators were released on bail. Hua carried his son in his arms as he walked out of a police station in Ganzhou.

Hua declined to be interviewed for this story. His lawyer said police ordered him not to speak with the media. His bail conditions dictated that he must check in weekly with police and cannot travel without permission. That, plus the cloud of criminal suspicion that clung to him in his small hometown, made it hard to get a job.

In July, Hua asked police for permission to take a family vacation in the Wudang mountains, three hours away. After articles came out in the foreign press quoting Hua, half a dozen plainclothes policemen appeared at a restaurant where Hua was having dinner with his family and tapped him on the shoulder. The next morning they escorted him home, leaving his wife, Deng Guilian, to wander through Taoist temples alone with the kids.

With her husband out of work, Deng got a job selling drinks and snacks at a local karaoke parlor from 6 p.m. until 2 a.m. After her shift, she heads to a nearby dormitory where she and a female co-worker share a bed with a Snoopy headboard.

She gets three days off a month to see her four-year-old son, Bo Bo, and seven-year-old daughter, Chen Chen.

“They seem accustomed to not having their mom,” Deng said, flashing an uneasy smile.

Each Monday morning after dropping his kids at school, Hua makes the short drive past weedy lots and a factory spewing thick white smoke to check in with the local police in Nanzhang County.

At first they lectured him: Change careers. Don’t speak out. Live a normal life. Now, he usually just signs his name, his wife said, but it is clear that missteps can quickly draw the wrath of local authorities.

Police in Nanzhang County, Ganzhou city and Jiangxi province did not respond to requests for comment.

In October, Li Qiang again wrote to Ivanka Trump and her brand.

He said he got no response.

Ivanka Trump’s actions show “that she does not care about these workers who are making her products, and is only concerned with making profits,” Li said in an email. “As a public figure, she has the ability and resources to not only work on labor conditions at her own brand’s factories, but also to help improve labor conditions of the global supply chain as a whole. However, she did not use her influence to do these things.”

An ordinary person

Shortly after 6 p.m. on an October evening, Yu Chunyan left her office and walked through Shanghai’s former French Concession, the wealthy heart of China’s most prosperous city. She passed rows of thick plane trees, black against a darkening sky, and stepped into a discreet tea house.

Yu slid open the wooden door of a private room and peeked inside with a wide, nervous smile at the AP journalists she had agreed to meet. A chunky, colorless sweater hung off her body and her stocking feet poked out of white sandals despite the cold.

Yu slipped off her shoes and took a seat at the sunken table, doing her best to avoid the list of fancy teas glowing from a scrollable iPad menu. She began to talk about Kalen, and pulled out her phone to flip to their exchanges on WeChat.

There, in his tiny profile photo, was a familiar face.

“Do you know him?” she asked, surprised.

AP had been writing about him for months.

Kalen was Hua Haifeng.

Yu had no idea that her Kalen was the same Hua Haifeng who had been arrested while investigating Ivanka Trump suppliers. She listened, still and silent, to news of interrogations and surveillance, his son’s sudden nightmares, the jail and the bucket of urine.

Her eyes welled. Elegant cakes lay untouched in front of her.

An hour later, she sent a WeChat message to Kalen.

“Do you have to take risks to work in your industry?” she asked.

Risks depend on politics, he wrote her, and the conditions of the country you live in. “From the beginning, I expected something like this could happen,” he told her. “So it’s not about bad luck. It was going to happen sooner or later.”

“If you had another chance, would you do the same thing?” she asked.

“Yes,” he answered. Hua told Yu that he had to live a life that embodied his values. He tried to be encouraging. “I am not saying that everyone has to pay that high a price.”

But Yu had a sense that Hua had run up against forces neither of them could fully grasp, much less defeat. In her mind, she was recalibrating the risks of idealism.

“I wouldn’t be able to do it,” Yu said.

In late November, she left Shanghai to go back and live with her parents.

“I want to be an ordinary person,” she said. “I don’t want to get involved with controversial things.”

 

NAACP Sues Homeland Security Over Haitian TPS

The civil rights group NAACP is suing the U.S. Department of Homeland Security over its decision to end nearly 60,000 Haitian migrants’ participation in a provisional U.S. residency program that shields them from deportation.

The NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund filed a lawsuit Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland, as the Miami Herald first reported Wednesday. It said the group – the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People – contends the decision to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haiti in July 2019 is “irrational and discriminatory.”

The suit was filed on behalf of the NAACP and its Haitian members. It alleges that Homeland Security did not follow its “normal decision making process in regards to whether or not Haitians should still receive the humanitarian protection,” thus blocking Haitians from exercising their constitutional right to due process and equal protection, the Herald reported.

The department’s acting secretary, Elaine Duke, announced her termination decision in November. The department, Duke and new DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen all are named defendants.   

The NAACP suit also cited what it called President Donald Trump’s “public hostility toward immigrants of color,” the Herald reported.

DHS acting press secretary Tyler Q. Houlton told the Herald the department does not comment on pending litigation.

In discussing immigration with a small group of lawmakers earlier this month, the president reportedly questioned including Haitians in a proposed deal. “Why do we want people from Haiti here?” he reportedly asked.   

U.S. Senator Richard Durbin, an Illinois Democrat who was in that meeting, also reported Trump as describing Haiti, El Salvador and African nations as “s—hole” countries.

In a subsequent Twitter post, the president denied using the profanity, saying he used language that “was tough, but this was not the language used.”

Trump Willing to Answer Special Counsel’s Questions

U.S. President Donald Trump says he is willing to answer any questions under oath as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.

“I am looking forward to it,” Trump told reporters Wednesday at the White House before leaving for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  “I would love to do it, and I would like to do it as soon as possible.  I would do it under oath, absolutely.”

Trump reiterated that there was “no collusion” with Russia to help him win the election and suggested he is being investigated for obstruction of justice as part of the Russia probe because he was “fighting back” against the probe.

“Oh, well, Did he fight back?” Trump said, “You fight back, Oh, it’s obstruction.”

Trump’s interview with Mueller’s investigators has not been scheduled, but the president suggested it could occur within the next two or three weeks. Terms of the interview have also not been set, with Trump saying it would be “subject to my lawyers.”

Months ago, Trump said he would “100 percent” agree to meet with Mueller’s investigators, but more recently questioned why any interview would be needed since there was “no collusion.”

Mueller is looking to interview Trump about his firing last year of former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey, when he was heading the Russia investigation, before Mueller, over Trump’s objections, was appointed to take over the probe.

In addition, Mueller is looking at Trump’s dismissal of onetime national security adviser Michael Flynn and Comey’s claim that Trump then urged him to drop his probe of Flynn’s contacts with the Russian ambassador to Washington in the weeks before Trump assumed power a year ago.

U.S. law makes it a crime to obstruct justice or hinder an “official proceeding.”

Legal experts say that while a sitting president can’t be prosecuted for obstruction of justice or any other crime, the charge of obstruction can be used by Congress to impeach a president, if it decides to pursue such a case.

Former President Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998, in part for obstruction of justice, while one of three articles of impeachment brought against Richard Nixon in 1974 alleged obstruction of justice.  Clinton was acquitted in a Senate trial, while Nixon resigned as the corruption case mounted against him.

Russia probe

Mueller’s investigation into the Russian election interference has reached into Trump’s Cabinet, with the interview last week of Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who met with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak while he was a U.S. senator and a Trump campaign advocate, and later played a role in Comey’s firing.  Comey was interviewed weeks ago.

Trump has contended the Mueller investigation and congressional probes into the Russian election meddling are a hoax perpetrated by Democrats looking to explain his upset victory over his opponent, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Trump and Republican colleagues in Congress increasingly have accused the FBI of bias in pursuing the Trump investigation and their dropping without charges of a 2016 probe into Clinton’s handling of classified material on a private email server while she was the country’s top diplomat from 2009 to 2013.

The Washington Post reported Tuesday that shortly after Trump ousted Comey, the president had a get-to-know-you meeting with Andrew McCabe, the FBI’s acting director.

The Post said Trump “vented his anger” at McCabe, a longtime FBI official, for the fact that his wife had received hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign donations for her unsuccessful 2015 state Senate race in Virginia from a political action committee controlled by a close friend of Clinton, former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe.

Trump has complained in Twitter comments about McCabe and his wife’s Democratic Party fundraising.

 

Saving Lives by Taking the Guesswork Out of Snake Bites

An estimated 5 million people around the world are bitten by venomous snakes each year, and more than 100,000 victims die. In many cases the key to survival is anti-venom, but getting the right treatment can depend on knowing what kind of snake did the biting. Some new medical tech developed in Denmark is taking the guesswork out of the snake bite business. VOA’s Kevin Enochs reports.

US Safety Board to Probe Tesla Autopilot Crash

The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board has opened an investigation in an accident involving a Tesla car that may have been operating under its semi-autonomous Autopilot system. 

The board sent two investigators to Culver City, California, to learn whether the Autopilot was on and if so, how the car’s sensors failed to detect a firetruck stopped on a highway near Los Angeles on Monday. 

This is the second time the safety agency will look in to a crash involving Tesla’s Autopilot feature. 

In September, the NTSB determined that while the technology played a major role in the May 2016 fatal crash in Florida, the blame fell on driver errors, including overreliance on technology by an inattentive Tesla driver. 

The California driver said the Autopilot mode was engaged when the car struck the firetruck while traveling 104 kilometers per hour (65 mph). “Amazingly there were no injuries! Please stay alert while driving!,” the Culver City firefighters union said in a tweet.

Tesla wouldn’t say if Autopilot was working at the time of the Culver City crash, but said in a statement Monday that drivers must stay attentive when it’s in use. The company would not comment on the investigation.

Citizenship for Dreamers, Trump Says, Is ‘Going to Happen’

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he was willing to consider eventual citizenship for immigrants who were brought to the United States illegally as children by their parents.

“We’re going to morph into it. It’s going to happen, at some point in the future, over a period of 10 to 12 years,” Trump said to a group of reporters at the White House. 

On Twitter, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who has proposed a bipartisan immigration deal with Democratic Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, quickly hailed the president’s comments, saying they “will allow us to solve a difficult problem.” 

Such consideration for the so-called “Dreamers” who are beneficiaries of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy would be part of an immigration reform plan, according to the president, that would restrict family sponsorship of immigrants and curtail the diversity visa lottery program.

Trump also said he wanted $25 billion for constructing his oft-touted wall along the 3,200-kilometer (1,990-mile) U.S. border with Mexico.

The president’s comments, prior to his departure to attend the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, came hours after his administration announced it would unveil on Monday an outline for lawmakers “that represents a compromise that members of both parties can support.”

The package is seen as an attempt by the White House to take the lead on the emotionally charged issue of immigration.

The reforms proposed by the administration “were assembled in coordination with front-line law enforcement officers and career public servants who know what is necessary to keep America safe,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters during Wednesday’s daily press briefing.

The administration said it was based on four fundamental issues: securing the border and closing legal loopholes; ending extended-family migration, called “chain migration” by some; canceling the visa lottery; and providing a permanent solution on DACA, which has allowed some who illegally entered the United States as minors to avoid deportation and be eligible for work permits.

The framework, according to the press secretary, takes into account conversations “with dozens” of House and Senate members from both parties.

Earlier Wednesday, Trump spoke to mayors gathered in the White House East Room, and he assailed those who had decided just hours before not to attend as word came that the Justice Department was demanding new proof from 23 states and cities that they were cooperating with federal immigration authorities to provide information about undocumented immigrants they have jailed for various alleged crimes.

“The mayors who choose to boycott this event have put the needs of criminal illegal immigrants over law-abiding Americans,” said the president, noting the “vast majority” showed up who “believe in safety for your city.”

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Twitter he would not attend because the Justice Department “decided to renew their racist assault on our immigrant communities. It doesn’t make us safer and it violates America’s core values.”

The White House press secretary said earlier, “If mayors have a problem with that, they should talk to Congress, the people that pass the laws. The Department of Justice enforces them, and as long as that is the law, the Department of Justice is going to strongly enforce it.”

The White House spokeswoman added, “We cannot allow people to pick and choose what laws they want to follow.”

The Justice Department action aims to eliminate “sanctuary cities,” which provide safe havens for immigrants who have illegally entered the country.

“Sanctuary cities are the best friend of gangs and cartels,” Trump told the mayors.

The Justice Department is demanding proof from three states — Illinois, Oregon and California — that they are cooperating with immigration authorities, along with five major cities — New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and Denver.

The political debate over U.S. immigration policies was at the center of the three-day partial government shutdown that ended Monday.

The White House and lawmakers have so far been unable to agree on how to protect the roughly 800,000 DACA beneficiaries. Trump rescinded the Obama-era program last year but gave Congress until March 5 to weigh in on the issue.

According to a Pew Research Center survey taken this month, 74 percent of Americans favor granting permanent legal status to immigrants brought to the United States illegally when they were children, while 60 percent oppose the president’s pledge to substantially expand the wall along the U.S. border with Mexico.

In Davos, Gulf Arabs Slam an Absent Iran

Gulf Arab officials used the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday to slam Iran for what they said was its destabilizing behavior in the region,

taking advantage of Tehran’s conspicuous absence at the annual event.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had been a regular presence at the annual forum that brings together top politicians, CEOs and bankers, and he often clashed with his Gulf Arab counterparts at competing sessions. But this year, he did not show.

As a result, the platform was wide open for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to criticize Iran.

Iran, the leading Shiite Muslim power, and Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. ally, are rivals for influence in the Middle East, where they support opposing sides in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

“In the Middle East, we have two competing visions … and the vision of darkness is sectarianism. It’s trying to restore an empire that was destroyed thousands of years ago. It’s using sectarianism and terrorism in order to interfere in the affairs of other countries,” Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told a panel at the forum. “History has shown that light always prevails over darkness.”

Iran denies interference in Arab countries’ affairs. Last year at Davos, Zarif said Iran and Saudi Arabia should be able to work together to help end conflicts in Syria and Yemen.

Yemeni conflict

Saudi-led forces, which back the Yemeni government, have fought the Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen’s civil war. Saudi Arabia’s crown prince has described Iran’s supply of rockets to the Houthis as “direct military aggression” that could be an act of war.

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri gave a more measured critique. With his coalition government, which includes the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, he has had to tread carefully. His Saudi allies accuse Hezbollah of waging war

across the Middle East as agents of Iran.

“Iran is a country that we need to deal with. … As prime minister, I would like to have the best relationship with Iran, but I would like it state to state,” Hariri said at a separate panel.

“Iran represents a challenge in the region, maybe, but dialogue also is a part of resolving these issues,” Hariri said.

German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, while acknowledging that Berlin had issues with Iran, used the moment to defend the 2015 Iran nuclear deal sealed with world powers, which U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to abandon.

“We have many worries about Iran, without any question, and we see a lot of problems with Iran, without any question. But we think that the Iran [nuclear] deal encapsulates the core problem, and therefore we think we should stick to the deal as long as Iran sticks to the deal, too,” she said.

Toys R Us, Citing Holiday ‘Missteps,’ Will Close up to 182 Stores

Toys R Us, a nostalgic favorite even as many shoppers moved to Amazon and huge chains like Walmart, plans to close up to 182 stores, or about 20 percent of its U.S. locations.

The company that once dominated toy sales in the U.S. has been operating under bankruptcy protection since last fall, when it filed for Chapter 11 under the weight of $5 billion in debt. Toys R Us operates about 900 stores in the U.S., including Babies R Us stores.

Loyal fans lamented the closing of their hometown stores. Many said they liked to shop at Toys R Us because of the atmosphere and the variety of toys they found.

“It’s an experience,” said Bryan Likins of Indianapolis, who takes his 4-year-old daughter to Toys R Us. “She likes to walk through the store and point to different toys she liked.”

Likins said he remembered playing with the video games and trying out bikes with his brothers at Toys R Us, and he liked continuing that with his child. He said he shopped on Amazon only for specific items that he wasn’t sure other toy sellers carried.

The store closings will begin in February and the majority of locations identified for closure, which include Babies R Us stores, will go dark by mid-April. At some other locations, Toys R Us and Babies R Us stores will be combined. The bankruptcy court still must sign off on the closings.

Toys R Us wouldn’t say how many jobs were to be cut. It said some employees would be moved to other stores and those who could not be moved would severance pay.

Ease of shopping

Chairman and CEO Dave Brandon said Wednesday that tough decisions were required to save Toys R Us. He acknowledged “operational missteps” during the critical holiday shopping season, when shopping at its stores and online wasn’t as easy as it should have been.

“The actions we are taking are necessary to give us the best chance to emerge from our bankruptcy proceedings as a more viable and competitive company that will provide the level of service and experience you should expect,” he said in a letter to customers.

Gerrick Johnson, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, had estimated that holiday sales at the company’s North America stores were down more than 10 percent. He attributed much of the decline to people’s confusion around the bankruptcy filing and a fear of buying gifts at Toys R Us because they thought they wouldn’t be able to return them if necessary. Johnson also blamed a weak marketing campaign and email promotions that didn’t create a sense of urgency.

Toys R Us, based in Wayne, New Jersey, has struggled with debt since private-equity firms Bain Capital, KKR & Co. and Vornado Realty Trust took it private in a $6.6 billion leveraged buyout in 2005. The plan had been to take the company public again, but weak sales have prevented that from happening. With such debt levels, Toys R Us has not had the financial flexibility to invest in its business.

Meanwhile, other stores like Target have been increasing their assortment of toys.

Toys R Us closed its flagship store in Manhattan’s Times Square, a huge tourist destination, about two years ago.

While its sales numbers have been shrinking, Toys R Us still sells about 20 percent of the toys bought in the U.S., according to Stephanie Wissink, an analyst at Jefferies LLC.

Competitive pressures will force the company to examine all its stores, and more will likely be shuttered over the next year or two, Wissink said. Moody’s lead retail analyst Charlie O’Shea said the closings would let Toys R Us “focus all of its operating efforts on only its best locations.”

Ryan McLaine, mother of a 4-year-old boy, is disappointed that her favorite Toys R Us store in Exton, Pennsylvania, was on the list of closures.

“We would always like to reward him. It was always fun to take him to the big store to see what he would like,” she said. “Now, we have to figure out what to do next.”

She said the next closest Toys R Us location is in King of Prussia, and it’s not well-maintained. And she doesn’t like to shop for toys on Amazon.com because she likes to get a reaction from her son before she buys.

A ‘category killer’

Toys R Us reigned supreme in the 1980s and early 1990s, when it was one of the first of the “category killers” — a store totally devoted to one thing: toys. Its scale gave it leverage with toy sellers and it disrupted general merchandise stores and mom-and-pop shops. Children sang along with commercials featuring the mascot, Geoffrey the giraffe.

Now Toys R Us and other category killers like the now-defunct Sports Authority, Borders and Circuit City are being upended by Amazon and online shopping. More than three dozen retailers sought bankruptcy protection last year, due in large part to radical shifts in where people shop, and what they buy.

GlobalData Retail estimates that nearly 14 percent of toy sales were made online in 2016, more than double the level five years ago.

Jonathan Cordell, the father of an 8-month-old boy, said he does a lot of price comparisons online, jumping back and forth between Babies R Us and Amazon. But he likes to buy baby clothes at Babies R Us in Queens’ College Point section, which is on the list of stores to be closed.

“I usually take advantage of the price matching. I could find clothing at 50 percent off. You can’t find that on Amazon,” he said.

Toys R Us has been hurt by the shift to mobile devices taking up more play time. Some toy makers have struggled as well, with talk last year about the possibility of a merger between Mattel and Hasbro, the nation’s largest toy makers.

Wissink estimates that Toys R Us accounts for about 11 percent of Mattel’s annual sales and about 9 percent of Hasbro’s annual volume. Shares of Mattel Inc. fell while Hasbro Inc.’s stock was up in afternoon trading.

Apple Will Give Users Control Over Slowdown of Older iPhones

Apple’s next major update of its mobile software will include an option that will enable owners of older iPhones to turn off a feature that slows the device to prevent aging batteries from shutting down.

The free upgrade announced Wednesday will be released this spring.

The additional controls are meant to appease iPhone owners outraged since Apple acknowledged last month that its recent software updates had been secretly slowing down older iPhones when their batteries weakened.

Many people believed Apple was purposefully undermining the performance of older iPhones to drive sales of its newer and more expensive devices. Apple insisted it was simply trying to extend the lives of older iPhones, but issued an apology last month and promised to replace batteries in affected devices at a discounted price of $50.

Despite Apple’s contrition, the company is still facing an investigation by French authorities, a series of questions from U.S. Senate and a spate of consumer lawsuits alleging misconduct.

Besides giving people more control over the operation of older iPhones, the upcoming update dubbed iOS 11.3 will also show how well the device’s battery is holding up. Apple had promised to add a battery gauge when it apologized to consumers last month.

Other features coming in the next update will include the ability to look at personal medical histories in Apple’s health app, more tricks in its augmented reality toolkit and more animated emojis that work with the facial recognition technology in the iPhone X.