Prices for Russian credit default swaps — insurance contracts that protect an investor against a default — plunged sharply overnight after Moscow used its precious foreign currency reserves to make a last-minute debt payment Friday.

The cost for a five-year credit default swap on Russian debt was $5.84 million to protect $10 million in debt. That price was nearly half the one on Thursday, which at roughly $11 million for $10 million in debt protection was a signal that investors were certain of an eventual Russian default.

Russia used its foreign currency reserves sitting outside of the country to make the payment, backing down from the Kremlin’s earlier threats that it would use rubles to pay these obligations. In a statement, the Russia Finance Ministry did not say whether future payments would be made in rubles.

Despite the insurance contract plunge, investors remain largely convinced that Russia will eventually default on its debts for the first time since 1917. The major ratings agencies Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have declared Russia is in “selective default” on its obligations.

Russia has been hit with extensive sanctions by the United States, the EU and others in response to its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine and its continuing military operation to take over Ukrainian territory.

The Credit Default Determination Committee — an industry group of 14 banks and investors that determines whether to pay on these swaps — said Friday that they “continue to monitor the situation” after Russia’s payment. Their next meeting is May 3.

At the beginning of April, Russia’s finance ministry said it tried to make a $649 million payment due April 6 toward two bonds to an unnamed U.S. bank — previously reported as JPMorgan Chase.

At that time, tightened sanctions imposed for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prevented the payment from being accepted, so Moscow attempted to make the debt payment in rubles. The Kremlin, which repeatedly said it was financially able and willing to continue to pay on its debts, had argued that extraordinary events gave them the legal footing to pay in rubles, instead of dollars or euros.

Investors and rating agencies, however, disagreed and did not expect Russia to be able to convert the rubles into dollars before a 30-day grace period expired next week.
…

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has driven home the importance of NATO and the European Union for many of their newest members, according to Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky, who was in Washington this week for the funeral of Czech emigre and former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

“The reason we joined these two organizations is that it won’t happen to us,” Lipavsky, said at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council.

The fact that Ukraine did not manage to enter the two Western institutions “created a gray zone” that Russian President Vladimir Putin exploited, said Lipavsky, who had discussed the challenge facing Ukraine, among other topics, in an interview with VOA earlier in the day.

The people of Ukraine “want to be part of the Western society, they want democratic elections, they want freedom of speech,” and they want to enjoy the prosperity that comes with them, he said. “I feel our moral responsibility to help them.”

Lipavsky is part of a newly sworn-in coalition government comprising both conservatives and progressives. Led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, the new Czech administration is expected to pursue an internationalist foreign policy that promotes democracy and human rights, harkening back to an era when the country was led by playwright-turned political leader Vaclav Havel.

On his limited itinerary in Washington, Lipavsky paid tribute to Havel, who is memorialized in what is known as the “Freedom Foyer” of the U.S. Capitol’s Statuary Hall. There, his bust sits in close proximity to those of Winston Churchill, Abraham Lincoln and George Washington.

Lipavsky gifted his American hosts with a collection of Havel photographs, including photos of Havel with Albright, who was born in then-Czechoslovakia and whose father was a member of the Czechoslovakian diplomatic corps.

The friendship between Havel and Albright was stressed by Lipavsky and other Czech dignitaries who came to Washington for the funeral. Among them were Czech senate president Milos Vystrcil, the senate foreign affairs committee chairman and three former ambassadors to the United States.

Albright is credited with having played a critical role in ushering the Czech Republic and other Central and Eastern European countries into NATO.

“Madeleine Albright made that possible, because she knew — she had suffered the consequences of policy failures, including American policy failures” in the 1930s and ’40s, said Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland, at the Atlantic Council event alongside Lipavsky.

“Vaclav Havel, along with Poland’s Lech Walesa, pushed [then U.S. President] Bill Clinton on NATO enlargement,” Fried recalled. “One of their arguments was — I was around, I remember — ‘we have a window now to do it, don’t you Americans blow it!’ ”

Fried added that Havel and Walesa might not have “quite put it that way, but that was more or less their way, what they were saying.”

Speaking to VOA earlier by telephone, Fried took issue with widespread reports of “backsliding” on democratic governance in the former Soviet bloc countries of Central and Eastern Europe. “Except for Hungary,” he said, he sees the countries in the region “going back to their roots” of fighting for freedom and democracy.

Lipavsky, for his part, said he believes the countries of the region are attracted to the West by its “democratic identity.”

“This identity is built upon the vision that every person can pursue his and her own happiness, and you have very basic values like human rights, rights to own [property], rights to think, freedom of speech,” he said. “Baltics, Central and Eastern Europe, want to be part of that, is part of that.”

The Ukrainian people are “literally fighting and dying” for the very same choice, he said, and the Czech Republic will do its utmost to help them to prevail against Russia and become a member of the club of like-minded nations that is the EU.
…

The continuation of negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine is in doubt, with Ukraine’s president saying it is hard to discuss peace amid public anger over alleged atrocities carried out by Russian troops, while Russia’s foreign minister said Western sanctions and arms shipments were impeding the talks, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.  

Ukrainian forces fought Saturday to counter a Russian advance in their country’s south and east, where the Kremlin is seeking to capture the industrial Donbas region. Western military analysts said Moscow’s offensive was going much slower than planned.

While Russia claimed on Saturday to have struck more than 380 targets overnight as it sought to take full control of the territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said the Russian military’s efforts to capture targets were “not succeeding — the fighting continues.” Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, reportedly was targeted by mortar and artillery shelling Saturday.  

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a televised address Friday night that Ukrainian forces had recaptured a strategically important village near the city and evacuated hundreds of civilians.  

RFE/RL reported that in a daily briefing Saturday, the Ukrainian military said the greatest enemy losses were taking place in the Izyum area, near Kharkiv.

Appeals in Rome

Meanwhile, the United Nations continued working to negotiate the evacuation of civilians from the increasingly hellish ruins of Mariupol, the southern port city that Russia has sought to capture since it invaded Ukraine more than nine weeks ago.  

Two Ukrainian women whose husbands are defending the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol were in Rome on Friday, calling for any evacuation of civilians to also include an estimated 2,000 soldiers holed up in the plant, the last stronghold of Ukrainian resistance in the strategic and now bombed-out port city. They cited fears the troops would be tortured and killed if left behind and captured by Russian forces.  

“The lives of soldiers matter, too. We can’t only talk about civilians,” said Yuliia Fedusiuk, the wife of Arseniy Fedusiuk, a member of the Azov Regiment in Mariupol; she was joined by Kateryna Prokopenko, whose husband Denys Prokopenko, is the Azov commander.  

“We are hoping that we can rescue soldiers, too, not only dead, not only injured, but all of them,” Fedusiuk said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Saudi-owned Al Arabiya Television there was no need for anybody to provide help to open up humanitarian corridors out of Ukraine’s besieged cities.  

“We appreciate the interest of the [U.N.] secretary-general to be helpful,” he added. “[We have] explained … what is the mechanism for them to monitor how the humanitarian corridors are announced.”

Lavrov also accused the West of being “Russia phobic,” and he complained that his country never lived a day without being subject to sanctions by the West.  

“So … to believe that this latest wave of sanctions is going to make Russia cry ‘Uncle’ and to beg for being pardoned, those planners are lousy, and of course, they don’t know anything about [the] foreign policy of Russia and they don’t know anything about how to deal with Russia,” Lavrov said.
…

A sandy-colored tower glints in the sunlight and dominates the skyline of the Swedish town of Skelleftea as Scandinavia harnesses its wood resources to lead a global trend towards erecting eco-friendly high-rises.

The Sara Cultural Center is one of the world’s tallest timber buildings, made primarily from spruce and towering 75 meters over rows of snow-dusted houses and surrounding forest.

The 20-story timber structure, which houses a hotel, a library, an exhibition hall and theater stages, opened at the end of 2021 in the northern town of 35,000 people.

Forests cover much of Sweden’s northern regions, most of it spruce, and building timber homes is a longstanding tradition.

Swedish architects now want to spearhead a revolution and steer the industry towards more sustainable construction methods as large wooden buildings sprout up in Sweden and neighboring Nordic nations thanks to advancing industry techniques.

“The pillars together with the beams, the interaction with the steel and wood, that is what carries the 20 stories of the hotel,” Therese Kreisel, a Skelleftea urban planning official, tells AFP during a tour of the cultural center.

Even the lift shafts are made entirely of wood. “There is no plaster, no seal, no isolation on the wood,” she says, adding that this “is unique when it comes to a 20-story building.”

Building materials go green

The main advantage of working with wood is that it is more environmentally friendly, proponents say.

Cement — used to make concrete — and steel, two of the most common construction materials, are among the most polluting industries because they emit huge amounts of carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas.

But wood emits little CO2 during its production and retains the carbon absorbed by the tree even when it is cut and used in a building structure. It is also lighter in weight, requiring less of a foundation.

According to the U.N.’s IPCC climate panel, wood as a construction material can be up to 30 times less carbon intensive than concrete, and hundreds or even thousands of times less than steel.

Global efforts to cut emissions have sparked an upswing in interest for timber structures, according to Jessica Becker, the coordinator of Trastad (City of Wood), an organization lobbying for more timber construction.

Skelleftea’s tower “showcases that is it possible to build this high and complex in timber,” says Robert Schmitz, one of the project’s two architects.

“When you have this as a backdrop for discussions, you can always say, ‘We did this, so how can you say it’s not possible?'”

Only an 85-meter tower recently erected in Brumunddal in neighboring Norway and an 84-meter structure in Vienna are taller than the Sara Cultural Centre.

A building under construction in the U.S. city of Milwaukee and due to be completed soon is expected to clinch the title of the world’s tallest, at a little more than 86 meters.

‘Stacked like Lego’

Building the cultural center in spruce was “much more challenging” but “has also opened doors to really think in new ways,” explains Schmitz’s co-architect Oskar Norelius.

For example, the hotel rooms were made as prefabricated modules that were then “stacked like Lego pieces on site,” he says.

The building has won several wood architecture prizes.

Anders Berensson, another Stockholm architect whose material of choice is wood, says timber has many advantages.

“If you missed something in the cutting you just take the knife and the saw and sort of adjust it on site. So it’s both high tech and low tech at the same time,” he says.

In Stockholm, an apartment complex made of wood, called Cederhusen and featuring distinctive yellow and red cedar shingles on the facade, is in the final stages of completion.

It has already been named the Construction of the Year by Swedish construction industry magazine Byggindustrin. 

“I think we can see things shifting in just the past few years actually,” says Becker.

“We are seeing a huge change right now, it’s kind of the tipping point. And I’m hoping that other countries are going to catch on, we see examples even in England and Canada and other parts of the world.” 
…

Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who holds this year’s G-20 presidency, has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the group’s summit in Bali later this year, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to attend. However, Zelenskyy’s invitation may not be enough to secure the attendance of U.S. and other Western leaders keen on isolating Moscow. White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara has this report.
…

First came a court summons alleging Mikhail Samin had discredited the Russian army. Then came the threatening calls.

Samin, a 22-year-old from Moscow who has been posting commentary about the war in Ukraine on social media, shared details of those chilling calls with VOA.

In one expletive-laden call, a man warned that Samin had 24 hours to delete his posts, saying that only then, “you may sleep peacefully.”

When Samin tried to reason with the caller, saying that people, children, were dying in Ukraine, the caller replied, “If you don’t stop being stupid, we will throw you off the balcony.”

The legal action and threats are becoming the new normal for those in Russia who defy the strict censorship around the war in Ukraine. Moscow in March passed a law to limit coverage of the military and invasion, and a mix of fines and website blocks has resulted in most independent news outlets being forced out.

Risky work

With traditional media limited, citizen journalists and activists like Samin are filling the void, but at great personal risk. Samin and student Ilya Kursov have both faced legal action for posts about the war and protests.

That new law was cited by authorities when Samin was summoned to court for “discrediting” the Russian army.

He had condemned the invasion in a March 6 Facebook post.

“A terrible thing is happening right now on behalf of [Russian] people,” Samin had posted. “My compatriots — brainwashed or following criminal orders — have invaded the territory of a foreign country, destroying houses and killing people. Thousands of people are dying and suffering needlessly. There can be no justification for this. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, who started this war, cannot be justified.”

For Samin, the death threats were more concerning than the threat of prison.

The door to his apartment was defaced with the letter Z, a pro-Kremlin symbol of war against Ukraine. Samin’s sister was scared when she saw the mark as she left to walk the dog.

Samin was at a loss for words when describing his view of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

“Nothing discredits the armed forces of the Russian Federation more than the war crimes they commit, like torturing people, killing civilians,” he told VOA.

“There was a feeling of some unreality of what was happening because, before that, I was convinced that Putin would not do this,” said Samin. “It was apparent that this [war] would immediately destroy the future of Russia.”

Police pressure

When Ilya Kursov heard details of an anti-war protest in Barnaul, a city in the Altai Krai region of Siberia, at the end of February, the 24-year-old student shared the information on Instagram.

His post quickly came to the attention of police.

“I was abducted at 8 a.m. by [Russian police], right from my bed in the dormitory,” said Kursov, who was studying at the Altai State Pedagogical University.

At the police station he was questioned about the social media post. The police officers pressured him, threatening him with a prison term, Kursov said. He wasn’t allowed to call either his parents or lawyer and his laptop was confiscated.

The student believes the authorities are reacting so aggressively to any protest activity because, despite what the propaganda suggests, many Russians disapprove of the war.

Although many residents were afraid to join the protest openly, people approached the anti-war activists and spoke out for peace with Ukraine, he said.

Like Samin, Kursov is accused of “discrediting” the Russian army. Under the law, if the offense is repeated within a year, it can result in criminal prosecution, with a maximum punishment of up to 15 years in prison.

But the posts cited by police in Kursov’s case were published before the law was enacted.

“I have two fines for 50,000 rubles [approximately $700],”said Kursov.

The fine is about 1½ times the median monthly income for his city, according to the Federal Service for State Statistics in Russia.

The student said that in court documents he saw, authorities had flagged more of his social media posts on the war.

“I am afraid the prosecutors would have an opportunity to use it against me, which leads to a criminal case,” he said.

Both he and Samin have since left Russia, fearing for their safety.

‘Next to be targeted’

With independent media blocked off in Russia, ordinary citizens like Samin and Kursov have become a key source of war information in Russia, media freedom experts said.

“After this huge blow against independent media, the next to be targeted are the citizen journalists,” said Jeanne Cavelier, head of the Eastern Europe and Central Asia desk at Reporters Without Borders.

“We can draw a parallel with what happened in Belarus, because when all major independent media were blocked and journalists were in prison or exile, the Belarusian authorities started to target citizen journalists,” Cavelier told VOA.

Another factor is the chilling effect. As well as making arrests and blocking platforms, Russia wants to extend its foreign agents law to citizens as well as media.

“It frightens people; it makes them think twice before sharing any information, even if they feel very strong in their opinions or their criticism of the Russian authorities, so that’s always a downside of any crackdown and repressive measures,” said Gulnoza Said, the Europe and Central Asia program coordinator at the Committee to Protect Journalists.

But while Kursov and Samin have been forced to leave their homes, both are adamant they will keep using social media to inform Russians about the war.

This story originated in VOA’s Russian Service.
…

Press freedom group Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has put the websites of two major French broadcasters back online in Mali, after the country’s military government pulled the broadcasters off the air in March and officially banned them from the Malian airwaves this week.

RSF put the sites back online Thursday, creating mirrors of the sites that can be accessed in Mali and are updated in real time.

Using a virtual private network had previously been the only way to access those websites in Mali since the military government blocked them and took their corresponding TV and radio stations off the air March 17. 

Arnaud Froger, head of the RSF Africa desk, said that the action is part of the organization’s work toward media freedom.

He said RSF has been getting banned media websites back online since 2015, so far having put 47 websites back online in 24 countries, most recently in Russia. 

“It’s basically restoring your right to access to information that has been wrongfully denied by this censorship,” Froger said.

On Wednesday, France Medias Monde, the parent company of RFI and France 24, said it was notified of the decision of Mali’s High Communication Authority to definitively ban the two stations in the country.

The High Communication Authority is the communication regulatory body in Mali, whose website says its primary mission is to protect “freedom of information and communication” and “freedom of the press.”

RFI and France 24 were taken off the air in March after RFI reported on alleged human rights abuses by Mali’s army around the town of Diabaly. Mali’s government said the report contained false allegations aimed at “destabilizing” the government. 

In late March, after the French broadcast ban, Human Rights Watch and several media outlets reported on a Mali army operation in the town of Moura, where witnesses said 300 civilians were killed. 

Tensions have been running high between the Malian and French governments.  This month, France accused Russian mercenaries of staging a mass grave in Gossi, Mali, in order to blame it on French forces who had recently handed over a military base in Gossi to the Malian army. 

Mali’s government then accused France of spying, but did not mention or refute the claim that Russian mercenaries are working with the Malian army.
…

The U.N. refugee agency said Friday that refugee and migrant deaths are increasing at an alarming rate.  More than 3,000 people died or went missing in the Mediterranean or Atlantic last year on attempts to reach Europe.

In comparison, 1,439 people died or went missing on those routes in 2019, and about 1,800 in 2020.

Since the beginning of this year, the U.N. refugee agency reports an additional 553 people also have died or gone missing while attempting to reach Europe.

UNHCR spokeswoman Shabia Mantoo said desperation is driving more people to make perilous sea journeys in search of protection and a better life.   

“Most of the sea crossings took place in packed, unseaworthy, inflatable boats—many of which capsized or were deflated leading to the loss of life,” she said. “The sea journey from the West African coastal states such as Senegal, Mauritania to the Canary Islands is long and perilous and can take up to 10 days.  Many boats drifted off course or otherwise went missing without trace in these waters.”

Mantoo pointed out that land routes also are highly dangerous, and even more people have died on journeys through the Sahara Desert and remote border areas than on the sea. 

She said many people are subjected to horrific forms of abuse at the hands of smugglers or traffickers, armed and criminal gangs, and sometimes by law enforcement authorities. 

“Among the litany of abuses reported by people traveling these routes are extrajudicial killings, unlawful and arbitrary detention, sexual and gender-based violence, forced labor, slavery, forced marriage and other gross human rights violations,” Mantoo said. “UNHCR warns that continued political instability and conflicts, deteriorating socioeconomic conditions, as well as the impact of climate change, may increase displacement and dangerous onward movements.”   

The UNHCR is calling for support to provide credible alternatives to the dangerous journeys.  It is appealing for $163.5 million to provide increased humanitarian assistance and solutions for people who need international protection. 

The appeal covers some 25 countries in four regions.  All are connected by the same land and sea routes used by migrants, asylum seekers and refugees.  The UNHCR aims to provide essential services and protection to people on the move or stranded on route, intercepted at sea, or held in detention. 
…

Russia made what appeared to be a late u-turn to avoid a default on Friday, as it made a number of already-overdue international debt payments in dollars despite previously vowing they would only be paid in rubles.

Whether the money would make it to the United States and other Western countries that sanctioned Russia was still not clear, but it represented another major twist in the game of financial chicken that has developed about a possible default.

Russia’s finance ministry said it had managed to pay $564.8 million on a 2022 Eurobond and $84.4 million on a 2042 bond in dollars – the currency specified on the bonds.

The ministry said it had channeled the required funds to the London branch of Citibank, one of the so-called paying agents of the bonds whose job is to disburse them to the investors that originally lent the money to Moscow.

Russia has not had a default of any kind since a financial crash in 1998 and has not seen a major international or ‘external’ market default since the aftermath of the 1917 Bolshevik revolution.

The risk of another one though is now a flashpoint in the economic tussle with Western countries which have blanketed Russia with sanctions in response to its actions in Ukraine that Moscow has termed a “special military operation.”

The bonds were originally supposed to be paid earlier this month but an extra 30-day ‘grace period’ that government bonds often have in their terms meant Moscow’s final deadline was on May 4.
…

RFE/RL journalist Vira Hyrych has died in Kyiv after a Russian air strike hit the residential building where she lived in the Ukrainian capital.

Hyrych’s body was found early in the morning on April 29 amid the wreckage of the building, which was hit by a Russian missile the night before, RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service said.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was visiting Kyiv on April 28 as air strikes hit the capital, including the apartment block.

Videos and pictures from the site showed the lower floors of the building heavily damaged. Cars in the area had their windows blown out.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed “long-range, high-precision” missiles had hit factory buildings in Kyiv of Ukrainian rocket manufacturer Artem on April 28.

Ukrainian officials have not commented on whether the factory had been hit during the attack.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram on April 29 that one body had been retrieved from the rubble and another 10 people had been injured in the strikes. He gave no further details.

Hyrych, born in 1967, began working for RFE/RL in February 2018. Before that she worked at a leading television channel in Ukraine.
…

The Biden administration is asking Congress for additional legal authority to make it easier for the U.S. government to seize Russian government and oligarch assets and transfer the proceeds to Ukraine.

The White House released the package of legislative changes Thursday as President Joe Biden asked Congress for $33 billion in additional aid for Ukraine as it seeks to fend off a devastating Russian invasion, now in its third month.

If enacted, the proposed measures would “establish new authorities for the forfeiture of property linked to Russian kleptocracy, allow the government to link the proceeds to support Ukraine, and further strengthen related law enforcement tools,” the White House said in a statement.

U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland urged Congress to quickly enact the changes.

“The proposals the president announced today will give the Justice Department critical resources and tools to continue and strengthen this work,” Garland said Thursday during a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told Garland during a hearing earlier this week that “there will be a receptive audience to give you more money if that’s what it takes to go after the people who profited from destroying the Russian economy.”

The proposal comes as Ukrainian officials asked Western governments to hand over Russian oligarch and government assets seized since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24.

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said seized Russian assets, including frozen Russian Central Bank reserves, “have to be used to rebuild Ukraine after the war, as well as to pay for the losses caused to other nations.”

So far, European countries in which Putin’s wealthy associates have long maintained homes and investments, have led in seizing their assets.

According to the White House, European Union member states have reported freezing more than $30 billion in Russian assets, including $7 billion worth of boats, helicopters, real estate and artwork.

By contrast, the U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned and blocked boats and aircraft belonging to Russian elites worth more than $1 billion, the White House said.

The confiscations include the seizure earlier this month of a $90 million yacht owned by Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg.

In addition, the department has frozen hundreds of millions of dollars in assets belonging to Russian elites held in U.S. bank accounts, the White House said.

U.S. lawmakers have voiced support for stepped-up enforcement of sanctions imposed on Russian individuals and companies.

Critics say some of the proposed legislative changes go too far and could lead to government abuse of civil forfeiture authority.

“It’s not just aimed at ‘oligarchs’ and ‘Russian elites,’ whatever that means,” said David Smith, a former federal prosecutor now in private practice. “Many of the provisions would greatly expand the government’s civil forfeiture powers in other cases, as well.”

Here is a look at the new enforcement tools the administration is seeking.

Transferring Russian assets to Ukraine

The administration’s key proposal would allow the departments of Justice, Treasury and State to hand over to Ukraine Russian assets forfeited to the U.S. government.

At present, forfeited property goes into the Justice Department’s Asset Forfeitures Fund, which is primarily used to compensate victims of crime and to fund investigations.

To empower the government to give the money to Ukraine, “multiple statutes” would have to be amended, according to the Justice Department.

These include the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO), a 1970 law enacted to fight organized crime.

Garland said during the House hearing that the proposed changes would make it “easier” to transfer seized Russian assets to Ukraine.

Seizing property used to evade sanctions

Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the primary U.S. sanctions statue, proceeds from violating sanctions are subject to forfeiture to the government.

The administration wants Congress to amend the 1977 law, extending the government’s authority to forfeit – or take ownership of – “property used to facilitate sanctions violations,” not just “proceeds of the offenses.”

The IEEPA authorizes the president to impose sanctions on foreign actors, including individuals and government officials.

Defining sanctions evasion as ‘racketeering activity’

The administration wants sanctions evasion to be defined as a “racketeering activity” under RICO.

Famously used in the 1980s to bring down mob leaders, the law includes a long list of crimes as racketeering, from bribery and money laundering to drug trafficking and kidnapping.

The proposed change “would extend a powerful forfeiture tool against racketeering enterprises engaged in sanctions evasion,” according to the Justice Department.

Creating a new criminal offense

The proposal would create a new criminal offense, making it illegal to possess proceeds obtained from “corrupt dealings” with the Russian government.

Smith said the proposed creation of a new offense is “scary.”

“How are ‘corrupt dealings’ to be defined?” he wrote in an email to VOA.  “Presumably to make it as easy as possible for the government to seize and forfeit ‘oligarchs’ assets.”

Extending the time limit for prosecuting oligarchs

The proposal would extend the so-called statutes of limitations for prosecuting money laundering and seeking forfeiture of their assets from five years to 10 years.  A statute of limitations limits the prosecution of an offense within a specified time.

Conducting such investigations can be complicated and time-consuming.

“Extending the statute of limitations would provide additional time for investigators and prosecutors to hold oligarchs criminally accountable,” the White House said in a statement.
…

The United States has not seen many signs that Russia-Ukraine negotiations are “proving fruitful” as Moscow’s war on the country enters its third month, said a senior State Department official.

“The Russians don’t seem to be willing to negotiate in a particularly meaningful way,” State Department Counselor Derek Chollet told VOA in an interview Thursday.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres arrived in Ukraine on Thursday after a stop Tuesday in Moscow, where he met for nearly two hours with President Vladimir Putin.

Chollet said that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Guterres before his trip to Moscow and Kyiv, and that the U.S. looks forward to hearing from the U.N. chief to see whether there is a way forward toward peace.

In Congress, proposed legislation scrutinizing China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine passed the House of Representatives on Wednesday. If adopted, the Assessing Xi’s Interference and Subversion Act would require the State Department to submit ongoing reports.

The U.S. has not witnessed China providing weapons and supplies to Russia, but it is watching closely, American officials said.

“China will pay a price if it is seen as assisting Russia — either providing a direct assistance, particularly military assistance, or assisting Russia in evading sanctions,” Chollet told VOA.

He warns that the “cooperation space” between the U.S. and China is “dwindling,” just as Blinken is expected to elaborate on a U.S. approach toward China “in coming days.”

The excerpts from VOA’s interview with Chollet have been edited for brevity and clarity.

VOA: Today, President Biden announced a proposal to hold Russian oligarchs accountable. He’s also asking Congress for additional money to help Ukraine. … What makes today’s announcement unique from previous ones?

Chollet: This is a historic announcement of support from the United States. President Biden (asked) Congress for over $30 billion in U.S. support for Ukraine. Twenty billion of that will be towards security and defense assistance. And then there will also be humanitarian assistance and economic support. So this is yet another example of United States commitment to a strong, secure and independent Ukraine.

VOA: Also today, congressional members are voting … (on the) Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022.

Chollet: Well, what the U.S. is focused on right now is getting the supplemental assistance through the Congress that the president has just proposed, and the $30 billion is the kind of scale and scope of assistance that we think reflects (that) it’s in our interests to have a safe and secure Ukraine.

What’s been critical throughout this crisis is the bipartisan support we’ve had from Congress. And Congress has been working very closely with the administration to get Ukraine the significant support that we’ve received thus far. But again, we’re going to be quadrupling in the coming weeks if we get this $30 billion, which we believe we will, from the Congress.

VOA: Does the U.S. have an assessment on Putin’s health?

Chollet: We don’t. We obviously don’t deal with him much in person nowadays. And so we do not have an assessment on his health.

What we do have an assessment of is of the consequences of the decisions he’s making. He has made the wrong decision, we believe clearly, in prosecuting this brutal war against Ukraine. We gave him every opportunity to choose another path over many months, but we also made very clear to him that Russia and he would pay a high price if he pursued a war against Ukraine.

VOA: Has the U.S. talked to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres after his meeting with Putin on Tuesday?

Chollet: We have been in very close touch with the secretary-general throughout this crisis. Secretary Blinken had an opportunity to speak with him on the phone before his trip to Moscow and Ukraine. I’m not sure if colleagues have spoken to him, since the secretary (Blinken) has not yet. But we, of course, will look forward to staying in touch with the secretary-general to hear about his trip, and if there is a possibility for a way forward on peace. We’re doubtful. We have not seen (many) signs (of) hope that negotiations are proving fruitful. The Russians don’t seem to be willing to negotiate in a particularly meaningful way.

VOA: Moving on to China’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Could China face secondary sanctions if it provides material or financial support to Russia?

Chollet: Well, the United States has been very clear — President Biden in his conversations with President Xi (Jinping), Secretary Blinken in his conversations with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang (Yi) — that China will pay a price if it is seen as assisting Russia, either providing a direct assistance — particularly military assistance — or assisting Russia in evading sanctions.

China knows very well the economic consequences that it could face if it’s seen as helping Russia. China itself is suffering because of the sanctions we have placed on Russia. So we are hoping that the Chinese make a decision not to support Russia.

VOA: Is Secretary Blinken’s China speech before or after the US-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) summit?

Chollet: Well, I don’t want to get ahead of the secretary’s speech. He, of course, places a very high priority on our strategy towards China. We’ll look forward to speaking to that in the coming weeks.

VOA: What is the U.S. approach to PRC (People’s Republic of China)? Can (the) two countries work together after Russia’s war in Ukraine?

Chollet: The US-China relationship is a very complicated relationship. There are elements of it that are conflictual, clearly are areas where the U.S. and China are going to fundamentally disagree. There are areas of that relationship that are competitive, and the United States welcomes the competition with China as long as we are playing by the same set of rules. And there are areas of the relationship that we think, by necessity, have to be cooperative. For example, on an issue like climate change, where we are not going to be able to address the consequences of warming climate if the United States and China can’t find a way to work together. Unfortunately, that’s a dwindling space in terms of the cooperation space.

VOA: As Washington is hosting a special summit with ASEAN in May, what is the U.S. pitch to ASEAN on Ukraine?

Chollet: This ASEAN special summit … will be a historic summit. It will be the first time that ASEAN leaders have been able to meet here in Washington and will be the largest meeting of leaders here in Washington since before the pandemic. … Our pitch to our ASEAN allies and friends is the same pitch we make to all of our allies and friends around the world: There’s a clear side that we all should be on against what Russia has been doing in Ukraine. We want ASEAN friends to stand with us when it comes to isolating and punishing Russia.

VOA: How about the reported military drill between Vietnam and Russia, announced by Russian state media?

Chollet: I can’t comment specifically on that drill. I was in Hanoi a few weeks ago, had long conversations with Vietnamese Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry officials about the U.S.-Vietnam relationship, which we believe has tremendous potential, and also our genuine concerns about Russia and the way forward with Russia.

Our point that we made to our Vietnam friends, which I believe they see merit in, which is that Russia is a far less attractive partner today than it was even four months ago. Russia is going to be more isolated in the world. It’s going to have an economy that’s destroyed. And frankly, its military has shown its vulnerability.

And so, if a country like Vietnam, for many decades, has had a relationship with Russia, and before that the Soviet Union. So, we realize that maybe perhaps some of the policy changes we’re asking for aren’t going to happen instantly. But nevertheless, we believe that those countries need to assess the relationship with Russia, and we’re willing to be a partner with them as they’re thinking through their security in the future.

VOA: Myanmar’s military government is showing support for Russia. Speaking of it, do you have anything on the conviction of Aung San Suu Kyi?

Chollet: This was a sham judicial process, and it’s just yet another example of the junta in Myanmar that unlawfully took power in February of 2021 to use the judicial system to try to go after their political enemies. What we need to see in Myanmar is a cessation of violence. We need to see a return to democratic governance. And until we see that happen, the United States is not going to be engaging with the junta. The junta representatives will not be part of the ASEAN special summit here in Washington.

Myanmar will be represented at a nonpolitical level, like it has been in ASEAN meetings, and the junta in Myanmar knows what it needs to do. It needs to adhere to the ASEAN 5-Point Consensus and get Myanmar back on the track to democracy, not use its judiciary to have sort of sham sentences against democratically elected leaders like Aung San Suu Kyi.
…

The European Union has warned its members that paying for Russian gas in rubles would breach sanctions on Moscow. Russia on Wednesday cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. As Henry Ridgwell reports, some EU states have set up Russian bank accounts to try to work around the sanctions.
…

The United States and the European Union have warned against giving in to what they called Russian “blackmail” over gas supplies to Europe.

Russia, which supplies about 40% of Europe’s gas needs, had demanded that what it called “unfriendly” European countries pay their gas bills in rubles — seen as a way to prop up the currency in the face of Western sanctions on Russian banks, including its central bank. Some EU states have set up Russian bank accounts to try to work around the sanctions.

President Joe Biden said Thursday that the U.S. was helping its European allies to diversify gas supplies.

“We will not let Russia intimidate or blackmail their way out of these sanctions. We will not allow them to use their oil and gas to avoid consequences for their aggression. We’re working with other nations like Korea, Japan, Qatar and others to support our effort to help European allies threatened by Russia with gas blackmail and their energy needs in other ways,” Biden told reporters at the White House.

“Aggression will not win. Threats will not win. This is just another reminder of the imperative for Europe and the world to move more and more of our power needs to clean energy,” he said.

Cutoff

Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom cut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday after they refused to pay in rubles. The two EU member states insist that the contracts stipulate payment in euros.

“This time, Russia has pushed the border of imperialism — gas imperialism — another step further. This is a direct attack on Poland,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Thursday during a visit to the Zambrow compressor station, which receives gas from Russia.

“Thanks to our actions, Poland will not need Russian gas at all from the fall. But we will also deal with this blackmail, with this gun at the head, so that the Poles will not feel it,” Morawiecki added.

Visiting the devastated town of Borodyanka in Ukraine on Thursday, Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said his country could cope without Russian gas.

“Bulgaria will not be indifferent to this tragedy. We are in a firm position, as part of the democratic world, as part of the European Union, that we will stand by Ukraine. Because this is not just the battle of Ukraine, this is a civil choice of which side we want to stand with,” Petkov told reporters.

Diversifying supplies

Poland and Bulgaria had declined to extend their gas contracts with Gazprom beyond this year. Both are diversifying their supplies of pipeline and liquified natural gas (LNG), said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at Independent Chemical & Energy Market Intelligence.

“Given they were ending those contracts, they had already begun to invest in new infrastructure, or developing infrastructure, or sign new pipeline supply contracts or LNG contracts to backfill those volumes that would have been lost by the beginning of 2023 anyway. So, Poland’s going to get a new pipeline directly connecting it to Norway. There’s a second pipeline between Greece and Bulgaria, which will specifically carry Azerbaijani gas,” Marzec-Manser told VOA.

“Polish storage is incredibly high at the moment, and therefore it almost looks like they were prepared that something like this might happen,” he said.

Serious sanctions

Many other European states continue to import Russian gas. Several European gas companies — including those from Germany, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia — have, at Moscow’s insistence, opened accounts with Gazprom Bank in Switzerland. The contracts are paid in euros but immediately converted into rubles.

Visiting Tokyo on Thursday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters that his country could not risk losing Russian gas supplies in the short term.

“Any interruption would have consequences for the economic situation. That is clear, and the government is also very clear about that,” Scholz told reporters.

“We know that it is a challenge that many European countries, including Germany, are dependent on imports of fossil resources from Russia. And that’s why we set out very early, even long before the outbreak of this war, to analyze this situation in concrete terms and to derive decisions from it.

“That has put us in a position where we can now stop imports of [Russian] coal by the autumn. That will put us in a position to reduce and replace imports of coal bit by bit. And the same will happen for gas. But that is a process that will require more time,” Scholz said.

EU warning

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned members against giving in to Russia.

“Companies with such contracts should not accede to the Russian demands. This would be a breach of the sanctions. So, a high risk for the companies,” she said Wednesday.

It’s not yet clear if those gas companies will face penalties for routing payments via Gazprom Bank. Marzec-Manser said Russia faces a dilemma.

“Had a major German or Italian gas customer with contracts not just ending at the end of this year but, say, contracts running through to 2035, had they not agreed to do the switch in terms of their banking setup, would a cutoff have happened to them? Because the revenue impact on Gazprom would have been immense,” he said.

Russia’s reputation also has taken a hit, Marzec-Manser added.

“Until about a year ago, the reputation from a gas market perspective was considered to be a reliable one,” he said. “That’s since long gone, even before the Ukraine war, I would say.”

European nations say they are making preparations in case Russia turns off the gas taps. But analysts say such a move also would cost the Kremlin hundreds of billions of dollars a year in lost revenue.
…

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in Tokyo on Thursday that his country wanted to strengthen ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific region that have the same values, and to work together to end Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. 

“My trip is a clear political signal that Germany and the European Union will continue and intensify their engagement with the Indo-Pacific region,” Scholz said after meeting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. 

Kishida said he and Scholz agreed that as members of the Group of Seven industrialized nations they share a responsibility to work together to end Russian aggression and restore peace, stability and international order as quickly as possible. 

“The Ukraine crisis shakes the foundation of the international order not only in Europe but also in Asia. Any attempts to change the status quo must be avoided, especially in East Asia,” Kishida said at a joint news conference. 

“If we do not clearly show [to Russia] that this kind of unilateral change to the status quo by force and recklessness has a high cost, it will give the wrong message to Asia,” he said. 

On his first trip to Tokyo as chancellor, Scholz said both Germany and Japan are defenders of the “rules-based international order,” the principles of the U.N. Charter and the defense of universal human rights. Scholz said he also wanted to come to Japan because Tokyo will take over as chair of the G-7 after Germany. 

Japanese sanctions

Japan has imposed sanctions against Russia in line with other G-7 countries and has provided support for Ukraine out of concern that Russia’s invasion could embolden China and intensify tensions in East Asia. China has long sought to take control of independently governed Taiwan, and it has threatened to do so by force if necessary. 

Japan has also provided Ukraine with nonlethal defense equipment in an exception to its policy against exporting military materials to nations in conflict. 

Germany had initially refused to send any offensive weapons to Ukraine and later balked at sending heavy equipment such as armored vehicles. 

Scholz’s government, under pressure domestically and from allies, recently reversed that policy and agreed to send offensive weapons and allow Ukraine to purchase German armaments, and to support weapons swaps with allies who in turn are sending heavy equipment to Ukraine. 

Japan hopes to work closely with Germany as strategic partners on “various challenges that the international community faces, including responses to China,” Kishida said. 

Scholz said Germany and Japan also agreed to work together to strengthen economic cooperation in areas such as 5G technologies and economic security. 

He said ensuring that supply chains become less dependent on individual countries is “a task that is more relevant than ever,” in a reference to China.
…

It was billed as a promising breakthrough — Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meeting last month and agreeing to try to resolve their countries’ age-old differences, keeping, at least, a lid on tensions as the conflict in Ukraine rages.

But on Thursday, as armed Turkish jets streamed into Greek airspace, conducting more than 125 unauthorized flights within 24 hours, Athens retaliated.

Greece revoked Turkey’s planned participation in a May 9, Greece-hosted NATO air drill known as “Tiger Meet,” saying Turkey was “neither an ally, nor a friend.” Greece also suspended confidence-building negotiations due to begin between Greek and Turkish diplomats next month.

The snub came as the Greek Foreign Ministry summoned Ankara’s top envoy late Wednesday to protest the record number of violations over the Aegean Sea. He was called in again on Thursday as Turkish warplanes buzzed over a rash of popular holiday islands, including Rhodes and Samos, staging dangerous aerial dogfights.

Near-daily patrols

Greece and Turkey, both members of NATO, have long been at odds over air and sea rights in the oil- and minerals-rich Aegean.

The disagreement has resulted in near-daily air force patrols and interception missions, mostly in disputed airspace around Greek islands that Turkey has repeatedly claimed as its own, denying any sort of violation.

Pundits, politicians and military officials here are now troubled by the sudden increase in dangerous overflights, especially after last month’s promising meeting between Mitsotakis and Erdogan.

Andreas Loverdos, a lawmaker and member of the Greek Foreign Affairs Committee, said nothing in reality had changed vis-a-vis Turkey’s stance toward Greece. He said Turkey had eased off what he called its provocative stance because it was trying to mend relations with Washington and play a constructive role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

As that has not panned out, Loverdos said, Turkey is reverting to past patterns of behavior.

Turkey’s ties with the U.S. government have been strained since punitive sanctions were imposed on Ankara during the Trump administration for Turkey’s purchase of a missile system from Russia, a breach of NATO rules.

Ankara is now seeking to purchase combat F-16 aircraft from the United States — a bid that Democratic U.S. Representative Frank Pallone and more than 50 other lawmakers have urged the Biden administration to reject, citing what they say is Erdogan’s lack of commitment to NATO and his “vast human rights abuses.”

Whether the purchase will go through remains unclear.

More war games expected

Until then, and as long as Turkey’s relations remain troubled with the West, military experts here warn that Greece should be on high alert for more war games in contested areas in the Aegean.

Retired Greek Air Force Commander Evangelos Georgousis said the Turkish flights weren’t new but hadn’t previously been seen in such large numbers. The fear, he said, is that anything can go wrong. The only thing missing in these midair chases, Georgousis said, is the act of pressing the button to unlock missiles against the enemy target. Everything else is as real and warlike as can be, he said, and it’s dangerous.

Contesting claims to the Aegean brought Greece and Turkey to a dangerous standoff more than two decades ago, forcing the United States to intervene to pull back both sides from the brink of war.

Greece has urged Ankara to take the dispute to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, but Turkey has repeatedly refused.
…

As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its third month, questions have swirled about whether a negotiated solution with Russian President Vladimir Putin is possible.

Kenneth Dekleva, a psychiatrist who previously worked with the U.S. State Department, dismisses any speculation that Putin is unstable and therefore impossible to deal with.

“He’s not crazy. He’s a rational actor, and in his mind, he knows exactly what he’s doing,” says Dekleva. “He is an extremely savvy, highly intelligent and ruthless longtime leader who’s now been in power for over 22 years.”

Dekleva, a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations in Texas, has studied the former Russian intelligence agent for 20 years. He describes Putin as single-minded, resilient, a master manipulator of people, and hyperfocused, due to his training as a KGB officer.

Putin, however, is 69 and his recent actions could suggest a less flexible style of leadership that is sometimes seen in aging leaders.

“You’re more rigid. You see things more in black and white, and you have less tolerance for nuance and ambiguity,” Dekleva says. “That’s certainly a possibility, although I don’t know that we can say that just from his current decision-making regarding the Ukraine war. That being said, he appears to be very, very deliberately focused and a bit of a man in a hurry.”

The key to negotiating with someone like Putin, Dekleva says, is to try to understand his mindset and be empathetic, even when you don’t agree with him.

For Jason Pack, a senior analyst at the NATO Defense College Foundation in Italy, reaching an agreement with Putin requires decisive action.

“I do think we need to be extremely bold, right up to the threshold of things that we might think would cause a big escalation … like engaging in bold cyberwarfare,” Pack says. “Like, ‘Hey, we’re going to make the lights go off in St. Petersburg for two hours and then negotiate after that. … The next time, it’s going to be two days if you don’t meet our demands.'”

Pack says Putin had every reason to believe the West would back down if he invaded Ukraine, despite the West having “more discretionary military and economic power.”

He points to Russia’s 2008 incursion in Georgia, formerly a part of the Soviet Union and now an independent republic, which resulted in Russia occupying 20% of that country. And Putin seized the southern region of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

“He seems to respect force, and he doesn’t respect just talking. I don’t even think that he thought that we would do the sanctions that were threatened if he invaded, because it was like, ‘This is just talk, talk, talk,'” says Pack, adding that he doesn’t believe Putin will take catastrophic nuclear action.

“He wants to live. He’s terrified of COVID. He’s 20 feet (6 meters) away from his advisers (in pictures). So, I don’t think that there is a risk of his blowing the world up so long as we stick to the rules of there not being NATO personnel fighting in Ukraine.”

Putin is adamantly against Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, joining NATO. He has complained about the West edging too close to Russian borders.

“His primary goal was to take Kyiv, and he didn’t use tactical nuclear (weapons) to try to take Kyiv,” Pack says. “He’s been exposed to be a degree of the paper tiger. He thought we would back down. He wants to live. He doesn’t want to be overthrown inside Russia. He has had horrible coordination with his generals. They had no battle plans.”

Dekleva says negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine must simultaneously address Ukraine’s security needs and sovereignty while addressing Putin’s perception of threat in terms of the expansion of NATO to Russian borders. He thinks a very senior third- party mediator that both Putin and the West can trust — possibly from China, India or Israel — could be useful to the process. And he’s very clear on what should not happen.

“Name-calling — calling Putin crazy or calling him a thug, or a murderer, or a war criminal — by senior leaders in the West, including (U.S.) President (Joe) Biden, is not helpful,” Dekleva says. “That’s not how you get your negotiating partner to come to the table.”
…

After nearly three years in a Russian prison, former U.S. Marine Trevor Reed is back in the United States on Thursday after a swap with a Russian held in the U.S. 

Reed had been convicted of endangering the lives of two Moscow police officers while drunk. The U.S. called the trial a “theater of the absurd.” 

Reed arrived in his native Texas and will spend a few days in a military hospital to monitor his health. 

A Texas congressman posted photos on Twitter of Reed’s arrival.  

“It’s been (a) very exciting day for The Reed family. Trevor is back in the USA,” Reed’s mother, Paula Reed, tweeted early Thursday. 

Reed was exchanged for Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko, who had been convicted of trying to smuggle drugs into the U.S. He had been arrested by U.S. special forces in Liberia in 2010. 

The official swap reportedly took place at an airport in Turkey. 

“The American plane pulled up next to the Russian plane, and they walked both prisoners across at the same time, like you see in the movies,” said Trevor’s father, Joey Reed. 

The U.S. is also trying to secure the release of another American, former Marine Paul Whelan, who was sentenced to 16 years in June 2020 for espionage.  

Some information in this report comes from Reuters. 

 
…

  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is hosting U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for talks Thursday, while Ukraine calls for an embargo on Russian energy supplies and U.S. President Joe Biden prepares a proposal for military, economic and humanitarian aid.    

Guterres toured areas outside Kyiv, including Bucha, where the bodies of civilians were found after Russian forces withdrew from the area.  Those discoveries prompted calls for investigations of possible war crimes, and Guterres on Thursday encouraged Russia to cooperate with probes by the International Criminal Court. 

“I fully support the ICC and I appeal to the Russian Federation to accept, to cooperate with the ICC,” Guterres said.  “But when we talk about war crimes, we cannot forget that the worst of crimes is war itself.” 

The U.N. chief said after arriving in Ukraine that he wanted to “expand humanitarian support and secure the evacuation of civilians from conflict zones,” topics that were part of his talks earlier this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.        

“The sooner this war ends, the better — for the sake of Ukraine, Russia, and the world,” Guterres tweeted.           

Russian energy

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Thursday “it’s a matter of time” before an embargo is imposed on Russia’s key energy industry.

While European nations have taken steps to reduce or eliminate their reliance on Russian oil and gas, replacing those supplies and potential economic hits at home have made some leaders express caution about how quickly to proceed down that path as Ukrainian officials called for an embargo.

Podolyak tweeted that avoiding Russian energy supplies is both a moral issue and a matter of Russia ceasing “to be a reliable and predictable partner in the eyes of the world.”

“Switching to alternative supply channels quickly will be expensive, but not as expensive as not doing so,” Podolyak tweeted. “In the medium term, Moscow will face total economic and political isolation. As a result, poverty, the scale of which Russia has not seen yet.”

His comments came a day after Russia’s Gazprom halted natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.

Gazprom said Wednesday that Poland and Bulgaria had not met Russia’s demand to pay for natural gas in rubles. The company said four unnamed natural gas buyers have paid Russia in rubles, and 10 European companies have created ruble accounts to make payments in the Russian currency, Bloomberg News reported.

The White House said Wednesday this move by Russia was anticipated.

“That is why we, of course, had been in touch with Europe, including with these countries … over the last 24 hours, with leaders in Poland and Bulgaria,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters. “We have been working for some time now, for months with partners around the world to diversify natural gas supply to Europe in anticipation of, and to also address, near-term needs and replace volumes that would otherwise come from Russia.”

Polish President Andrzej Duda said the Russian gas cutoff violated “basic legal principles,” while Bulgarian Energy Minister Alexander Nikolov said gas was being used as a “political and economic weapon.”

U.S. aid

The White House said Biden is scheduled to deliver remarks Thursday “on support for Ukrainians defending their country and their freedom against Russia’s brutal war.”

Psaki told reporters Wednesday that Biden would send to Congress this week a proposed package similar in focus to those already carried out to help Ukraine, with security, humanitarian and economic assistance to “help address a range of the needs the Ukrainians have.”

The U.S. Congress could also send “lend-lease” legislation further freeing up the flow of weapons to Biden’s desk for a signature as early as the end of this week.

The U.S. Department of Defense said Wednesday more than half of the 90 U.S. howitzers have reached Ukraine, and a first round of training on the long-range weapons has already wrapped up.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby cited the ongoing flow of weapons and aid in the success Ukraine has maintained in the battle against Putin’s unprovoked invasion.

“He’s concentrating all his firing forces in the east and in the south of Ukraine. So, he has achieved none of his strategic objectives,” Kirby said. “I think that’s proof right there that the kinds of systems that are being provided to Ukraine have had an effect … on their self-defense needs.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against Western intervention in Ukraine as he spoke to lawmakers in St. Petersburg on Wednesday.

“If someone intends to intervene in the ongoing events from the outside, and create strategic threats for Russia that are unacceptable to us, they should know that our retaliatory strikes will be lightning-fast,” Putin said. “We have all the tools for this, things no one else can boast of having now. And we will not boast, we will use them if necessary. And I want everyone to know that.”

Support reaches $8 billion

Military support for Ukraine, either pledged or provided already by NATO allies, has reached $8 billion, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to consider applying to be members of the NATO military alliance, and Stoltenberg said if they do choose to take that step, the process could be completed quickly.

“It is, of course, for Finland and Sweden to decide whether they would like to apply for membership in NATO or not. But if they decide to apply, Finland and Sweden would be welcomed with open arms to NATO,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels.

Russia has expressed opposition to prospective NATO membership for Finland and Sweden, saying if they do join, Russia will deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles to Kaliningrad.

“This is fundamentally about the right of every nation in Europe to decide its own future,” Stoltenberg said. “So when Russia tries to threaten, to intimidate Finland and Sweden from not applying, it just demonstrates how Russia is not respecting the basic right of every nation to choose its own path.”

National security correspondent Jeff Seldin contributed to this report. Some information came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse.
…

This week’s French presidential contest boiled down to a debate between nationalism and globalism — and globalism prevailed in the victory of President Emmanuel Macron, an ally of President Joe Biden. What can the U.S. learn from this as Biden’s party faces elections? VOA’s Anita Powell reports.
…

Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister said Wednesday that the list of war crimes committed by Russian troops in her country grows daily and accountability is critical.

“The city of Mariupol has turned into dust,” Emine Dzhaparova told an informal meeting of the U.N. Security Council. “Thousands of civilians live in blockade without water, electricity, communications and basic things that all people need.”

She said that new mass graves and buried bodies are found daily in Ukrainian cities and that Russian soldiers carry out crimes on civilians, including torture, rape and murder.

“Russia must be [held] accountable for its crimes as a state,” she said, adding that the individuals who carried out the crimes must be prosecuted, too.

“The one who raped a girl, kicking out her teeth; who killed a man riding a bicycle; who fusilladed a queue of people waiting for bread; who shot humanitarian convoys, maternity hospitals, ambulances, cars,” Dzhaparova said. “These people have names and faces, and they are to be brought to criminal liability.”

8,000 investigations

Ukraine Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova said from Kyiv that her office has opened 8,000 cases to probe allegations of violations and the list continues to grow.

Several governments have offered Ukraine assistance in carrying out investigations and documenting abuses.

In an unprecedented move, more than 40 states have referred the situation in Ukraine to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan has made two trips to Ukraine and has an investigative team on the ground that includes experts, lawyers and anthropologists.

He said he sent three communications to Russia but had not received a reply. He urged Moscow to cooperate with his office, saying if it wants to expose accusations against it as fake, the best way to do so is to hold them up to scrutiny.

“My office and myself have no political agenda other than to get to the truth,” he assured member states.

But Russia’s representative dismissed the ICC as an institution susceptible to political pressure and financial leverage exerted by such countries as the United States and Britain.

“ICC is merely a political instrument and has nothing in common with justice,” Russian legal adviser Sergey Leonidchenko said. He said Russia would have its own meeting on accountability with its own briefers on May 6.

In terms of new crimes, the U.S. representative said Washington now had credible information that a Russian military unit operating near the eastern city of Donetsk had executed Ukrainians who were attempting to surrender, rather than take them into custody.

‘Deeply disturbing pattern’

Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice Beth Van Schaack said that, if true, this would violate a core principle of war prohibiting the summary execution of civilians who surrender.

“These images and reports suggest that these atrocities are not the act of rogue units or individuals; rather, they reveal a deeply disturbing pattern of systematic abuse across all areas where Russia’s forces are engaged,” she said.

Russia has a record of abuses, including in Syria, where its troops have backed President Bashar al-Assad’s forces since 2015.

“The pattern of abuse we are seeing in Ukraine is consistent with well-documented grave crimes by Russian forces in other places such as Syria,” Human Rights Watch’s Ida Sawyer said from Kyiv. “The lack of accountability for those violations has regrettably opened the door for what is occurring today.”

Human rights lawyer and activist Amal Clooney said the horrific scenes from the Kyiv suburb of Bucha reminded her of the 2012 massacre of 108 civilians, many of them children, in the northwestern Syrian town of Houla.

“This Security Council met in an emergency session to decry the killings, and people thought it would be a turning point for accountability. It wasn’t,” Clooney said. “And now the same Russian general known as “the butcher,” who mounted a brutal attack on civilians in Aleppo, is massacring innocent families in Mariupol.”

She urged the diplomats not to grow numb to the violence as the war grinds on and merely call for justice that is never delivered.
…

Ukraine’s sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, puts new scrutiny on Ankara’s policy of banning most Russian warships from entering the Black Sea. Analysts suggest the Ukraine conflict is changing the balance of power in Turkish-Russian relations. For VOA, Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul. Camera: VOA/Courtesy
…