LONDON — America’s allies in Europe are debating what Donald Trump’s win in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election could mean for their security and prosperity amid concerns that the next four years may once again be characterized by a turbulent transatlantic alliance.

European interests

About 50 European leaders met in Budapest on Thursday for a summit of the European Political Community, which was set up in 2022 in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe must stand up for itself as it prepares for the next Trump presidency in the United States.

“There is a geopolitical situation where it is clear that we have two blocs: the United States of America on one side and China on the other, which above all seek their own interests,” Macron told the other European leaders.

“I think that our role here in the European Union is not to comment on the election of Donald Trump, to wonder if it is good or not. He was elected by the American people, and he is going to defend the interests of American people and that is legitimate and that is a good thing,” he said.

“The question is, are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans? That is the only question that we should ask ourselves. And for me, I think that is our priority,” he said.

NATO

The NATO alliance remains the bedrock of Europe’s security.

“The first implication for the alliance is how to continue support for Ukraine if there’s an expected drawdown of military assistance from the U.S.,” said Ed Arnold, senior research fellow for European security at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute.

“That can either be delivered through NATO — and there were some steps taken in this summer to sort of formalize those structures — but still significantly less than where it needs to be. It can also be done through the EU as well, which might increase slightly but probably not enough. Or it can be done bilaterally,” Arnold told VOA.

“I think actually the mechanisms are probably largely irrelevant. It’s more about the cost to individual nations, and that’s going to have to ramp up pretty quickly if they’re going to be able to have that impact,” he said.

Shortfall

Does Europe have the capacity to make up any shortfall from a U.S. withdrawal of support for Kyiv?

“Yes, but it would take a lot more effort than Europe is making now,” according to analyst Ian Bond of the Center for European Reform. “And I think there will be some, perhaps in Germany, perhaps elsewhere, who will say the Ukrainians are just going to have to put up with losing some of their territory.

“I think for the Baltic states, for the Nordic states, Poland — they will look at this and they will say, ‘Russia is going to be an existential threat to us if it is allowed to control Ukraine. And therefore we must step up our efforts,'” Bond said.

On the campaign trail, Trump said he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on day one, although he didn’t elaborate on how that would be achieved. In the past he has boasted of a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Peace deal?

Ukraine fears being forced into an unfavorable peace deal — and Europeans might change their calculations, said analyst Arnold of RUSI.

“There might be a bit of a worry where there’s some within Europe who say, “Why would we ramp up aid now if there’s going to be a negotiated settlement fairly soon? And I think the real risk for Europe as a whole — the EU but also NATO — is that actually the U.S. and Russia might start to do these negotiations without them,” Arnold said.

Leverage

There are deeper concerns that the U.S. might withdraw wider support for European security. Former government officials say Trump considered pulling the U.S. out of NATO altogether in his first term.

“One of the very few consistent beliefs that Trump has held to since he entered politics has been the idea that the United States is being taken advantage of by its allies,” said Jonathan Monten, a U.S. foreign policy analyst at University College London.

“At times, Trump threatened to withdraw from the alliance altogether but was ultimately held back. So the million-dollar question … is whether or not he will actually act on that threat,” Monten told VOA.

“I think he likes the idea that he’s keeping foreign allies as well as adversaries guessing as to his ultimate intentions. I think he sees that as a source of leverage, as a source of power,” he said.

NATO’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, who took over the role October 1, has struck a more upbeat tone, praising Trump for getting allies to spend more on defense.

“When he was president, he was the one in NATO who stimulated us to move over the 2% [of GDP spending target],” Rutte told reporters in Budapest on Thursday.

Tariffs

It’s not only security fears that are haunting European capitals. America’s allies could also face economic turbulence when Trump enters the White House.

“The [Trump] claims of putting about 60% or more tariffs on all imports from China will have to have a major disruptive impact on world trade, and there will be repercussions on the EU, on Europe, on the U.K. and elsewhere. We can expect also tariffs on imports from the EU as well,” said Garret Martin, co-director of the Transatlantic Policy Center at American University in Washington.

“One element that I think is going to be absolutely critical for Europe, for the EU, is to work on protecting its unity and its unanimity. Trump, I think, is likely to try to adopt a divide and rule approach,” Martin said.

Unpredictability

Trump’s unpredictability means there is little Europe’s leaders can do to prepare, said Monten.

“They can try flattery,” he said. “They can try to offer him deals that benefit him personally, but it’s unclear what exactly they would have to offer. They can offer him the kind of stature or respect that comes along with a big grand summit or trade deal. He seems to crave that kind of respect.

“But when it comes to actual tangible concrete results, it is unclear what levers they have either to threaten him with or to cajole him with,” Monten told VOA.
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Allies in Europe are debating what Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election could mean for their security and economy. Trump’s first term in office was characterized by often turbulent relations with EU and NATO partners. As Henry Ridgwell reports, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has amplified Europe’s concerns over the transatlantic alliance.
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washington — The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate on Thursday by a quarter-point in response to the steady decline in the once-high inflation that had angered Americans and helped drive Donald Trump’s presidential election victory this week.

The rate cut follows a larger half-point reduction in September, and it reflects the Fed’s renewed focus on supporting the job market as well as fighting inflation, which now barely exceeds the central bank’s 2% target.

Thursday’s move reduces the Fed’s benchmark rate to about 4.6%, down from a four-decade high of 5.3% before September’s meeting. The Fed had kept its rate that high for more than a year to fight the worst inflation streak in four decades. Annual inflation has since fallen from a 9.1% peak in mid-2022 to a 3½-year low of 2.4% in September.

In a statement after its latest meeting ended, the Fed said the “unemployment rate has moved up but remains low,” while inflation has fallen closer to the central bank’s target but “remains somewhat elevated.”

After their rate cut in September — their first such move in more than four years — the Fed’s policymakers had projected that they would make further quarter-point cuts in November and December and four more next year.

But with the economy now mostly solid and Wall Street anticipating faster growth, larger budget deficits and higher inflation under a Trump presidency, further rate cuts may have become less likely.

The economy is clouding the picture by flashing conflicting signals, with growth solid but hiring weakening. Consumer spending, though, has been healthy, fueling concerns that there is no need for the Fed to reduce borrowing costs and that doing so might overstimulate the economy and even re-accelerate inflation.

Financial markets are throwing yet another curve at the Fed: Investors have sharply pushed up Treasury yields since the central bank cut rates in September. The result has been higher borrowing costs throughout the economy, thereby diminishing the benefit to consumers of the Fed’s half-point cut in its benchmark rate, which it announced after its September meeting.

Broader interest rates have risen because investors are anticipating higher inflation, larger federal budget deficits, and faster economic growth under a President Trump. Trump’s plan to impose at least a 10% tariff on all imports, as well as significantly higher taxes on Chinese goods, and to carry out a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants would almost certainly boost inflation. This would make it less likely that the Fed would continue cutting its key rate. Annual inflation as measured by the central bank’s preferred gauge fell to 2.1% in September.

Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that Trump’s proposed 10% tariff, as well as his proposed taxes on Chinese imports and autos from Mexico, could send inflation back up to about 2.75% to 3% by mid-2026.

Rate cuts by the Fed typically lead to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses over time. Yet this time, mortgage rates fell in anticipation of rate cuts but have since bounced back up as the economy has grown briskly, fueled by consumer spending. High borrowing costs not only for mortgages but also for car loans and other major purchases, even as the Fed is reducing its benchmark rate, has set up a potential challenge for the central bank: Its effort to support the economy by lowering borrowing costs may not bear fruit if investors are acting to boost longer-term borrowing rates.

The economy grew at a solid annual rate just below 3% over the past six months, while consumer spending — fueled by higher-income shoppers — rose strongly in the July-September quarter.

But companies have scaled back hiring, with many people who are out of work struggling to find jobs. Powell has suggested that the Fed is reducing its key rate in part to bolster the job market. If economic growth continues at a healthy clip and inflation climbs again, though, the central bank will come under growing pressure to slow or stop its rate cuts.
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Federal health officials on Thursday called for more testing of employees on farms with bird flu after a new study showed that some dairy workers had signs of infection, even when they didn’t report feeling sick. 

Farmworkers in close contact with infected animals should be tested and offered treatment even if they show no symptoms, said Dr. Nirav Shah, principal director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

The new guidance comes after blood tests for 115 farmworkers in Michigan and Colorado showed that eight workers — or 7% — had antibodies that indicated previous infection with the virus known as Type A H5N1 influenza. 

“The purpose of these actions is to keep workers safe, to limit the transmission of H5 to humans and to reduce the possibility of the virus changing,” Shah told reporters. 

The CDC study provides the largest window to date into how the bird virus first detected in March in dairy cows may be spreading to people. It suggests that the virus has infected more humans than the 46 farmworkers identified in the U.S. as of Thursday. Nearly all were in contact with infected dairy cows or infected poultry. 

Outside experts said it’s notable that the study prompted the CDC to take new action. Previous recommendations called for testing and treating workers only when they had symptoms. 

“This is a significant move towards the assessment that these H5N1 viruses are a greater risk than the CDC estimated before,” said Dr. Gregory Gray, an infectious disease researcher at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston. 

Every additional infection in animals or humans gives the virus the chance to change in potentially dangerous ways, said Angela Rasmussen, a virus expert at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada. 

“It shows yet again that we are not responding effectively to the H5N1 cattle outbreak in humans or animals and if we continue to let this virus spread and jump from species to species, our luck will eventually run out,” Rasmussen said in an email. 

The CDC study included 45 workers in Michigan and 70 in Colorado tested between June and August. Of the eight workers with positive blood tests, four reported no symptoms. All eight cleaned milking parlors and none used respiratory protection such as face masks. Three said they used eye protection. 

High levels of the virus have been found in the milk of infected cows, increasing the risk of exposure and infection, researchers said. 

Researchers said that efforts to monitor dairy workers for illness have been hindered by several barriers including the reluctance of farm owners and farmworkers to allow testing. 

The virus has been confirmed in at least 446 cattle herds in 15 states. Last week, the Agriculture Department said a pig at an Oregon farm was confirmed to have bird flu, the first time the virus was detected in U.S. swine. 
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International observers reported that Moldova’s well-organized presidential runoff provided voters with a real choice, despite legal shortcomings, biased media coverage and the effects of Russian interference.
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Malawi, with help from the World Food Program, has received its first shipment of more than 19,000 tons of maize from Ukraine. The food aid will help feed millions of Malawians currently dealing with food shortages exacerbated by El Nino-induced drought. Lameck Masina reports from Blantyre.
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WASHINGTON — A military judge has ruled that plea agreements struck by alleged September 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two co-defendants are valid, voiding an order by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to throw out the deals, a government official said.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity Wednesday because the order by the judge, Air Force Colonel Matthew McCall, has not yet been posted publicly or officially announced.

Unless government prosecutors or others attempt to challenge the plea deals again, McCall’s ruling means that the three 9/11 defendants before long could enter guilty pleas in the U.S. military courtroom at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, taking a dramatic step toward wrapping up the long-running and legally troubled government prosecution in one of the deadliest attacks on the United States.

The plea agreements would spare Mohammed and two co-defendants, Walid bin Attash and Mustafa al-Hawsawi, the risk of the death penalty in exchange for the guilty pleas.

Government prosecutors had negotiated the deals with defense attorneys under government auspices, and the top official for the military commission at the Guantanamo Bay naval base had approved the agreements.

The plea deals in the September 11, 2001, al-Qaida attacks that killed nearly 3,000 people spurred immediate political blowback by Republican lawmakers and others after they were made public this summer.

Within days, Austin issued a brief order saying he was nullifying them. Plea bargains in possible death penalty cases tied to one of the gravest crimes ever carried out on U.S. soil were a momentous step that should only be decided by the defense secretary, Austin said at the time.

The agreements, and Austin’s attempt to reverse them, have made for one of the most fraught episodes in a U.S. prosecution marked by delays and legal difficulties. That includes years of ongoing pretrial hearings to determine the admissibility of statements by the defendants given their years of torture in CIA custody.

The Pentagon is reviewing the judge’s decision and had no immediate further comment, said Major General Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary.

Lawdragon, a legal news site that long has covered the courtroom proceedings from Guantanamo, and The New York Times first reported the ruling.

Military officials have yet to post the judge’s decision on the Guantanamo military commission’s online site. But Lawdragon said McCall’s 29-page ruling concludes that Austin lacked the legal authority to toss out the plea deals and acted too late, after Guantanamo’s top official already had approved the deals.

Abiding by Austin’s order would give defense secretaries “absolute veto power” over any act they disagree with, which would be contrary to the independence of the presiding official over the Guantanamo trials, the law blog quotes McCall as saying in the ruling.

While families of some of the victims and others are adamant that the 9/11 prosecutions continue until trial and possible death sentences, legal experts say it’s not clear that could ever happen. If the 9/11 cases ever clear the hurdles of trial, verdicts and sentencings, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit would likely hear many of the issues in the course of any death penalty appeals.

The issues include the CIA destruction of videos of interrogations, whether Austin’s plea deal reversal constituted unlawful interference and whether the torture of the men tainted subsequent interrogations by “clean teams” of FBI agents that did not involve violence.
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Berlin — Germany has arrested a U.S. citizen suspected of offering intelligence on the U.S. military to China that he had acquired while working for troops stationed in Germany, the federal prosecutor’s office said in a statement on Thursday.

The man, identified only as Martin D. under German privacy law, is accused of having declared himself ready to work as an agent for a foreign intelligence agency, the statement said.

The accused had worked for U.S. armed forces in Germany until recently, according to prosecutors.

In 2024, he is said to have contacted Chinese state positions and offered to share with them sensitive information to pass on to Chinese intelligence. He had gathered the information through his work for the military, prosecutors said.

Germany has warned of an increased risk of espionage from Beijing and arrested a number of people this year for alleged spy activities.

This includes three Germans arrested in April on suspicion of working to hand over technology that could strengthen China’s navy, as well as a European Union staffer of a far-right politician accused of working with Chinese intelligence.
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Manila, Philippines — The Philippines said Thursday its coast guard will acquire 40 fast patrol craft from France, with plans to deploy some of them in disputed areas of the South China Sea.

The deal is the “largest so far single purchase” in Manila’s ongoing effort to modernize its coast guard, with deliveries set to start in four years, Philippine coast guard commandant Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan told a news conference.

He declined to provide specifications for the vessels, which Manila said will cost about $440 million, to be funded by development aid from the French government.

He said some of the vessels will be deployed in the South China Sea, where Filipino maritime forces have figured in violent confrontations this year with China’s coast guard — part of a festering territorial dispute over waters and land features.

China claims most of the sea including waters close to the shores of the Philippines and several other neighbors, ignoring an international tribunal ruling that its claims are without legal basis. 

“It is a game changer for us,” Gavan said, describing the vessels as “fast enough to reach the edges of our exclusive economic zone” for law enforcement and other missions.

“This will form part of the force mix that we need to address the threats in the area,” he added.

Under the deal, 20 of the 40 vessels will be built in the Philippines through a technology transfer that Gavan said will provide a boost to Manila’s shipbuilding industry.

“The new (fast patrol craft) will help deter smuggling and illegal activities while ensuring the enforcement of maritime sovereignty in critical marine areas,” Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said in a statement.

The Philippine coast guard currently has a small fleet of modern vessels, including two 97-meter patrol ships and 10 44-meter patrol ships, all built by Japan.

The Japanese government is financing the construction of five additional 97-metre patrol vessels worth $418 million that will be delivered in 2027.

AFP has contracted the French embassy in Manila for details of the deal and the vessels. The mission did not immediately respond. 
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CHICAGO — For the second year in a row, Earth will almost certainly be the hottest it’s ever been. And for the first time, the globe this year reached more than 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming compared to the pre-industrial average, the European climate agency Copernicus said Thursday.

“It’s this relentless nature of the warming that I think is worrying,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus.

Buontempo said the data clearly shows the planet would not see such a long sequence of record-breaking temperatures without the constant increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere driving global warming.

He cited other factors that contribute to exceptionally warm years like last year and this one. They include El Nino — the temporary warming of parts of the Pacific that changes weather worldwide — as well as volcanic eruptions that spew water vapor into the air and variations in energy from the sun. But he and other scientists say the long-term increase in temperatures beyond fluctuations like El Nino is a bad sign.

“A very strong El Nino event is a sneak peek into what the new normal will be about a decade from now,” said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist with the nonprofit Berkeley Earth.

News of a likely second year of record heat comes a day after Republican Donald Trump, who has called climate change a “hoax” and promised to boost oil drilling and production, was reelected to the U.S. presidency. It also comes days before the next U.N. climate conference, called COP29, is set to begin in Azerbaijan. Talks are expected to focus on how to generate trillions of dollars to help the world transition to clean energies like wind and solar, and thus avoid continued warming.

Buontempo pointed out that going over the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold of warming for a single year is different than the goal adopted in the 2015 Paris Agreement. That goal was meant to try to cap warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times on average, over 20 or 30 years.

A United Nations report this year said that since the mid-1800s on average, the world has already heated up 1.3 degrees Celsius — up from previous estimates of 1.1 degrees or 1.2 degrees. That’s of concern because the U.N. says the greenhouse gas emission reduction goals of the world’s nations still aren’t nearly ambitious enough to keep the 1.5 degree Celsius target on track.

The target was chosen to try to stave off the worst effects of climate change on humanity, including extreme weather. “The heat waves, storm damage, and droughts that we are experiencing now are just the tip of the iceberg,” said Natalie Mahowald, chair of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University.

Going over that number in 2024 doesn’t mean the overall trend line of global warming has, but “in the absence of concerted action, it soon will,” said University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann.

Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson put it in starker terms. “I think we have missed the 1.5 degree window,” said Jackson, who chairs the Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists who track countries’ carbon dioxide emissions. “There’s too much warming.”

Indiana state climatologist Beth Hall said she isn’t surprised by the latest report from Copernicus, but emphasized that people should remember climate is a global issue beyond their local experiences with changing weather. “We tend to be siloed in our own individual world,” she said. Reports like this one “are taking into account lots and lots of locations that aren’t in our backyard.”

Buontempo stressed the importance of global observations, bolstered by international cooperation, that allow scientists to have confidence in the new report’s finding: Copernicus gets its results from billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.

He said that going over the 1.5 degree Celsius benchmark this year is “psychologically important” as nations make decisions internally and approach negotiations at the annual U.N. climate change summit Nov. 11-22 in Azerbaijan.

“The decision, clearly, is ours. It’s of each and every one of us. And it’s the decision of our society and our policymakers as a consequence of that,” he said. “But I believe these decisions are better made if they are based on evidence and facts.”
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BEIJING — China’s outbound shipments grew at the fastest pace in over two years in October as factories rushed inventory to major export markets in anticipation of further tariffs from the U.S. and the European Union, as the threat of a two-front trade war looms.

With Donald Trump being elected as the next U.S. president, his pre-election pledge to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% is likely to spur a shift in stocks to warehouses in China’s No.1 export market.

Trump’s tariff threat is rattling Chinese factory owners and officials, with some $500 billion worth of shipments annually on the line, while trade tensions with the EU, which last year took $466 billion worth of Chinese goods, have intensified.

Export momentum has been one bright spot for a struggling economy in China as household and business confidence has been dented by a prolonged property market debt crisis.

Outbound shipments from China grew 12.7% year-on-year last month, customs data showed on Thursday, blowing past a forecast 5.2% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 2.4% rise in September.

Imports fell 2.3%, compared with expectations for a drop of 1.5%, turning negative for the first time in four months.

“We can anticipate a lot of front-loading going into the fourth quarter, before the pressure kicks in come 2025,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“I think it is mainly down to Trump. The threat is becoming more real.”

China’s exports to the U.S. increased an annual 8.1% last month, while outbound shipments to Europe jumped 12.7% over the same period.

“We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. “Any potential drag from Trump tariffs may not materialize until the second half of next year.”

“Trump’s return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as U.S. importers increase their purchases to get ahead of the tariffs,” she added.

Trade data from South Korea and Taiwan pointed to cooling global demand, while German manufacturers have also reported they are struggling to find buyers overseas, leading analysts to conclude Chinese producers are slashing prices to find buyers or simply moving stocks out of China.

An official factory activity survey for October showed Chinese factories were still struggling to find buyers overseas.

“If the PMI new export sub-index has been going down, and the export figure goes up, I think it is safe to say it’s more of an inventory shift,” said Dan Wang, a Chinese economist based in Shanghai.

Exporters also had help from a positive turn in the weather, enabling them to send out delayed orders.

Typhoon Bebinca brought Shanghai to a standstill for one day in September, causing severe disruption to one of China’s busiest ports. In the eastern province of Jiangsu a violent tornado killed at least 10 people and several other regions suffered heavy rain and strong winds, disrupting production.

Natural disasters cost China 230 billion yuan ($32.23 billion) in direct economic losses over the third quarter, according to data from the Ministry of Emergency Management.

Economists have cautioned Chinese policymakers against becoming too reliant on outbound shipments for growth and urged officials to introduce more stimulus.

Analysts are now turning their attention to a $1.4 trillion fiscal package officials are likely to sign off on this week, which they expect to stabilize local government and property developers’ balance sheets and ease the strains that have weighed on consumption.

China’s trade surplus came in at $95.27 billion last month, up from $81.71 billion in September.
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Taipei, Taiwan — Following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping victory, Chinese netizens said they expect the U.S. to increase trade tensions with China while analysts say Washington’s efforts to counter China’s expansion might weaken under a second Trump administration.

Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump has vowed to impose tariffs, between 60% to 200%, on Chinese products on several occasions. During an interview with Fox News on February 4, Trump said he would impose more than 60% tariffs on Chinese imports but emphasized he wasn’t going to start a trade war with China.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said he would tax China at 150% to 200% if Beijing decides to “go into Taiwan.”

Some Chinese internet users expect Trump to follow through on the campaign promise to impose huge tariffs on Chinese products but have mixed views about how the tariffs will affect the Chinese economy and their livelihoods.

Amid China’s ongoing economic downturn, some Chinese social media users worry that Trump’s return to the White House could exacerbate the economic pressure on many Chinese citizens.  

“It’s hard to look at Trump’s victory with pure joy, because he is going to launch a trade war with China when he comes into power, and our economy will suffer further,” a Chinese netizen in the capital, Beijing, wrote on the popular microblogging site Weibo, which is similar to X.

“How will the lives of normal citizens change? I’m feeling a sense of unease about the unpredictability of the future,” the person added.

Others say the 60% tariff on Chinese imports to the United States that Trump proposed during the campaign will push Chinese companies to redirect exports from the U.S. to other markets, including Southeast Asia, South America and Europe.

“Trump’s approach of being [an] enemy with the whole world may make some left-wing regimes in Europe disappointed, and this development may lead to a de-escalation of trade tensions between China and Europe,” Niu Chun-bao, chairman of Shanghai Wanji Asset Management Co., posted on Weibo.

Some Chinese netizens predict the immense pressure that Trump is likely to impose on Beijing will enhance China’s domestic unity, and his transactional approach to resolving tensions may offer more room for negotiation and bargaining.

“As long as there are no major internal problems, no external pressure can overwhelm China. So, I think the overall situation may still be positive,” another netizen in the eastern Chinese province of Shandong wrote on Weibo.

‘Significant hit’

While Chinese netizens hold mixed views about the potential tariffs that Trump has vowed to impose on Chinese imports, analysts say this move would be “a significant hit” to the Chinese economy, which has been troubled by an ongoing property crisis, high youth unemployment and weak domestic demand.

If Trump decides to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese products imported to the U.S., “This would be a return to a big-picture trade war rather than a narrow tech war. And it would have a much deeper impact on China’s export-driven growth potential because he is hitting the entirety of China’s exports to the U.S.,” Jacob Gunter, an expert on China’s political economy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, told VOA by phone.

In Gunter’s view, Trump may use the tariffs to force China to make more concessions on trade. After imposing up to 25% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. in 2019, the Trump administration and China reached a trade deal that saw Beijing promise to increase purchases of American goods to at least $200 billion.

“We could see a return to the deal-making Donald Trump, where he wants to strike a deal and be viewed as this great negotiator, because that’s who he imagines himself to be,” Gunter said, adding that it remains to be seen how Trump might position the tariffs during his second term.

Other experts say one thing to look out for is what concessions Trump might make during a potential negotiation with China.

“One big question is whether Trump will soften the position the Biden administration has maintained on Taiwan in exchange for more exports and more U.S. investment into China,” Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, told VOA by phone.

The Trump campaign has not yet responded to a VOA request for comment regarding his administration’s trade plans with China once he takes office in January.

In response to potential tariffs that the incoming Trump administration could impose, analysts say China could impose counter-tariffs on U.S. agricultural products from states controlled by the Republican Party.

“Economic and political tensions between the two countries will inevitably rise, while the global economy and global supply chains will be thrown into chaos,” Zhiqun Zhu, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University, told VOA in a written response.

Weakened coordination with allies

While trade and economic tensions between China and the U.S. are expected to rise during Trump’s second term, Zhu said Trump’s return to power may also be good news for Beijing, as Washington’s efforts to counter China’s expansion of its influence in the Indo-Pacific region may be weakened due to Trump’s isolationist approach in international affairs.

“Trump is more likely to push ahead with his agenda without consulting allies and partners or seeking their support, and this might be good news for China,” Zhu told VOA.

“China can take a ‘divide-and-conquer’ strategy to dilute the effectiveness of Trump’s foreign policy, especially the Indo-Pacific strategy, and we may see improvements in China’s relations with its neighbors, particularly Japan, South Korea and India, as well as U.S. allies in other parts of the world,” Zhu added.

In his view, bilateral relations between China and the U.S. will be dominated by competition under the second Trump administration, but there is also room for diplomacy and cooperation.

“Competition itself is not necessarily harmful, because if the two countries can manage the competition in a healthy way, both sides can benefit,” Zhu said.  
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CAMARILLO, California — California was lashed by powerful winds Wednesday that fed a fast-moving wildfire, which destroyed dozens of homes and forced thousands of residents to flee. Forecasters also warned of the potential for “extreme and life-threatening” blazes.

Northwest of Los Angeles, the Mountain Fire exploded in size and prompted evacuation orders for more than 10,000 people as it threatened 3,500 structures in suburban communities, ranches and agricultural areas around Camarillo, according to a statement from Gov. Gavin Newsom. He said he has requested federal assistance for the area east of the Pacific coast city of Ventura.

The blaze was burning in a region that has seen some of California’s most destructive fires over the years. A thick plume of smoke rose hundreds of feet into the sky Wednesday, blanketing whole neighborhoods and limiting visibility for firefighters and evacuees. The fire grew from less than 1 square kilometer to 62 square kilometers in little more than five hours.

Ventura County Fire Captain Trevor Johnson described crews racing with their fire engines to homes threatened by the flames to save lives.

“This is as intense as it gets. The hair on the back of the firefighters’ neck I’m sure was standing up,” he said during a news conference Wednesday afternoon.

At one spot, flames licked the burning remains of a home. Its roof was reduced to only a few charred shingles.

Two people suffered apparent smoke inhalation and were taken to hospitals, fire officials said. No firefighters reported significant injuries.

The erratic winds and limited visibility grounded fixed-wing aircraft, and gusts topped 98 kph, said weather service meteorologist Bryan Lewis. Water-dropping helicopters were still flying.

First responders pleaded with residents to evacuate. Deputies made contact with 14,000 people to urge them to leave as embers spread up to 4 kilometers away and sparked new flames.

“This fire is moving dangerously fast,” Ventura County Fire Chief Dustin Gardner said.

Aerial footage from local television networks showed dozens of homes in flames across several neighborhoods as embers were whipped from home to home. Other footage captured horses trotting alongside evacuating vehicles.

Meanwhile to the south, Los Angeles County Fire Department crews scrambled to contain a wildfire near Malibu’s Broad Beach as authorities briefly shut down the Pacific Coast Highway as flames burned near multimillion-dollar properties. Residents were urged to shelter in place while aircraft dropped water on the 20-hectare Broad Fire. It was 15% contained early in the afternoon, with forward progress stopped. Fire officials said two structures burned.

The National Weather Service office for the Los Angeles area amended its red flag warning for increased fire danger with a rare “particularly dangerous situation” label, and officials in several counties urged residents to be on watch for fast-spreading blazes, power outages and downed trees amid the latest round of notorious Santa Ana winds.

With predicted gusts between 80 kph and 160 kph and humidity levels as low as 8%, parts of Southern California could experience conditions ripe for “extreme and life-threatening” fire behavior into Thursday, the weather service said.

Forecasters also issued red flag warnings until Thursday from California’s central coast through the San Francisco Bay Area and into counties to the north, where strong winds were also expected.

Utilities in California began powering down equipment during high winds and extreme fire danger after a series of massive and deadly wildfires in recent years were sparked by electrical lines and other infrastructure. On Wednesday, more than 65,000 customers in Southern California were without power preventatively, and upward of 20,000 in Northern California.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was among the first world leaders to congratulate newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump. On the streets of Ukraine’s capital, many Ukrainians say they fear that Trump may fulfill a campaign promise to end the war by forcing them into a settlement that will favor Moscow. For VOA, Anna Chernikova reports from Kyiv.
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London — U.S. allies in Europe have congratulated President-elect Donald Trump following his comprehensive victory in Tuesday’s presidential election, despite deep concerns across the continent over what his second term may mean for transatlantic relations.

In Britain, the so-called “special relationship” with America has long been treasured. However, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer got off to a difficult start with the Trump team last month after officials in his Labour Party offered election advice to his rival, Kamala Harris, on the campaign trail.

Nevertheless, Starmer was among the first of the world leaders to congratulate Trump in the early hours of Wednesday.

“I look forward to working with you in the years ahead. As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defense of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the U.K.-U.S. special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come,” Starmer said.

Changes ahead

German chancellor Olaf Scholz said Europe should expect changes.

“Many things will certainly be different under a government led by Donald Trump. Donald Trump has always made that clear publicly. Our messages are clear,” Scholz told reporters in Berlin on Wednesday. “Firstly, Germany will remain a reliable transatlantic partner. We are aware of the contribution we make to this partnership and will continue to make in the future. This also applies with regard to the threat that all NATO allies believe Russia poses to security in the Euro-Atlantic area.”

Russian reaction

Russia gave a muted reaction to Trump’s victory.

“It is almost impossible to worsen [U.S.-Russia ties] further — the relationship is at its historically lowest point. And then it will depend on the next leader of the United States,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday during a phone call.

Trump has frequently criticized U.S. support for Ukraine as it fights Russia’s invasion, and there are fears he could end military and financial aid for Kyiv.

NATO

In his first term in office, Trump threatened to pull the United States out of NATO, claiming allies were taking advantage of the U.S. security umbrella by failing to share the burden of defense spending.

However, in a statement Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte focused on Trump’s positive contributions to the alliance, claiming he had “turned the tide on European defense spending, improved transatlantic burden sharing, and strengthened alliance capabilities” during his first term.

EU agenda

During Trump’s first term in office, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was the defense minister of Germany, a country then frequently berated by the U.S. president for failing to meet NATO defense spending targets.

In a statement issued Wednesday, von der Leyen said she looked forward “to working with President Trump again to advance a strong transatlantic agenda.”

“Let us work together on a transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver for our citizens. Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship,” von der Leyen added.

‘Shining victory’

Hungary’s President Viktor Orban made no secret of his preference for a Trump victory during the campaign. In a video posted online, Orban said Trump’s victory would resonate in Europe.

“I see a shining victory, perhaps the biggest comeback of the history of Western politics. It’s been a huge fight. He was threatened with prison, his wealth was confiscated, they wanted to kill him, the whole media world turned against him in America, and he still won,” said Orban.

“For the world, it means the hope of peace. At the start of the year, we hoped that by the end of the year the pro-peace forces will be in the majority, and we will defeat the pro-war forces. Now, there is a huge chance for this,” he added.

Macron relationship

French President Emmanuel Macron has had a volatile relationship with Trump since the latter’s first election win in 2016. Macron invited Trump as guest of honor for the Bastille Day parade in Paris in 2017, but the two men frequently clashed in online exchanges.

Macron said Wednesday he was ready to work together “with your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”

Tension ahead

Despite the warm words, European allies are preparing for a stormy ride, said Garret Martin, co-director of the Transatlantic Policy Center at the American University in Washington.

“The four years where Trump was in office were rather tumultuous. There were moments of constant bickering, a lot of disunity, a lack of cohesion. So, I think that was already at a time which was less arguably dangerous than it is now.

“We’re now in the midst of a major war in Europe that’s been going on for two-and-a-half years. So, at the very minimum, we can assume it’s the case that we will see a repeat of the tension,” Martin told VOA.

Climate talks

Europe is also deeply concerned over the possible impact of a second Trump term on global efforts to combat climate change, with next week’s crucial COP29 summit in Azerbaijan likely to be overshadowed by his election victory.

Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2017, claiming the commitments to cut emissions were unfair to his country.

Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, rejoined the deal on his first day in office in 2021. There are fears Trump will once again quit the agreement, even as scientists warn of catastrophic global warming without immediate action.
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America’s allies in Europe have congratulated Donald Trump following his comprehensive victory in Tuesday’s presidential election — despite widespread concern about what his second term may mean for transatlantic relations. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday was quick to welcome Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory. The Turkish leader is eager to resume the close ties he had with the White House during Trump’s first term in office. Under U.S. President Joe Biden, relations between Ankara and Washington had become frosty. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.
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PARIS — A century of straw polls at the iconic Harry’s Bar in Paris have accurately called almost every U.S. election. This November was no different. The tallies displayed on the bar’s window on a chilly Wednesday morning were another reminder of Donald Trump’s decisive victory — with uncertain consequences for France and Europe.

Even as some French celebrate the former president’s comeback to the White House, others fear its repercussions and wonder whether their country will follow the same rightward tilt in its own 2027 presidential elections.

“I guess we’re disappointed but unfortunately not surprised,” said freelance producer and Paris resident Charlotte Danglegan. “The fascist powers are taking more and more importance, and it’s the same case in France.”

Not everyone sees it that way. On social media platform X, right-wing French politician Eric Ciotti saluted Trump’s victory as “a magnificent victory against a system, a hope for peace and a defeat for wokists.”

David Gil, a member of the far-right National Rally Party is also pleased.

“For us, it’s good news,” he said. “But it’s a bit early to see what it means for France.”

French President Emmanuel Macron was an early bird in congratulating Trump — sending his wishes to work “for more peace and prosperity,” before the Republican’s win was officially confirmed.

But Macron followed that message with another on X, declaring he and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wanted to work “for a Europe more united, stronger, more sovereign in this new context.”

French government officials echoed similar themes, reflecting Macron’s longstanding push for beefing up Europe’s military and other defenses.

“We need to find ways to work on our common interests, but fundamentally, the answer lies with us,” European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad told France Inter radio.

Europeans, he said, “can’t accept that their security will be decided without them, that tomorrow a capitulation will be imposed on Ukrainians without them, without the Europeans.”

Cooling relations

Macron struck up initially cordial relations with Trump during his first term in office, marked by the U.S. president’s visit to Paris in 2017 during Bastille Day celebrations. But ties cooled over differences on trade, climate change and Iran. Now, there are other areas of disagreement, including the future of Ukraine and support for NATO.

“It’s really time for us to wake up and do something,” said Jean-Yves Camus, an analyst at the Jean Jaures Foundation in Paris. “Because if we do not have the military capacity to weigh in on Ukraine and the Middle East, then we are dependent on what Washington will do.”

For their part, French businesses are worried about the potential impact of Trump’s promised tariffs on imports, which could affect industries such as beverages and aeronautics. Still, observers say, France is less exposed to a potential trade war than other countries, including neighboring Germany.

Walking near Harry’s Bar, phone salesman Cameron Orilia said he had not been closely following the U.S. presidential campaign.

“I hope things will work out for business” during Trump’s term, he said, “that customs will work out. I’m just looking at the economic side of the politics.”

Wake-up call?

But other Paris residents are worried about the political side.

“I feel a bit scared,” said Lucy Bone, a Briton who has lived in Paris for 25 years. “I’m thinking [about] what happened to all our democracies? We are now going to be in a world that’s driven by dictators.”

As with Americans, the French are worried about high prices and immigration — themes that catapulted Trump to victory. The hard-right National Rally emerged on top of both of France’s European and parliamentary elections this year. Today it holds the most seats of any party in the lower house — although not the majority.

Some believe Trump’s election may set a precedent for National Rally leader Marine Le Pen to do the same in 2027. Still, Le Pen has been cautious in reacting to another four years under Trump, who remains highly controversial in France.

“The only thing I think about is France’s interest and Europe’s interest,” she told reporters Wednesday. Under a Trump presidency that defends U.S. interests, “Europe has got to wake up” and do the same.

“Le Pen has been very, very strong in saying that National Rally members of parliament should not support President Trump, should not take sides in this election,” Camus said, “for fear that the bad image of President Trump would damage her own chance of becoming president.”
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With Donald Trump’s projected victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, VOA’s Tina Trinh explores how his past policies and current positions offer insight into the upcoming presidency. (Camera: Tina Trinh)
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AMMAN, JORDAN — Arab leaders quickly congratulated Donald Trump on his U.S. presidential election victory. Some are hopeful he could bring an end to conflicts raging in the Middle East while others are looking for a stronger stance against Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, United Arab Emirates leaders, and Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad, all congratulated Donald Trump on his win, saying strengthening strategic partnerships is important.

Dania Koleilat Khatib, president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building in Beirut, told VOA that during the election, Trump emphasized personal ties with such leaders compared to what she called Biden’s more transactional approach.

Khatib said Arab leaders want Trump to end war in Gaza and Lebanon.

“One of his main campaign promises was to end the war in Gaza. But end it how? Would it end with a Palestinian state? We don’t know,” she said. “The thing that is worrying is [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu attacking Iran. This will be major. Handling Iran will not be easy for Trump.”

Bin Salman has reiterated that his country would not consider improving ties with Israel unless the Gaza war ended and a Palestinian state is established.

Wealthy Gulf states have bolstered ties with Iran and given the Islamic Republic assurances that they won’t allow Israel to use their airspace to facilitate attacks on Iran.

In its response to the elections, Iran played down the results, saying it was ready for confrontation with Israel.

Jordan’s King Abdullah, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Makati, who are involved in trying to negotiate an end to the raging conflicts, also congratulated Trump.

Analyst Osama Al Sharif in Amman said he believes Trump will pressure Netanyahu to end the conflicts before the presidential inauguration next year.

“He will boldly tell Netanyahu … to wrap things up before the 20th of January because those two wars, especially Gaza, have become so toxic and they have become part of the [President Joe] Biden stigma, which was also eventually inflicted on [Vice President Kamala] Harris,” he said.

“Trump doesn’t need to start his first day at the office with more news of children getting killed and hospitals being blown up.”

Al Sharif told VOA that Iran will be a big challenge for Trump, who he says is an “isolationist who wants to extract America from any conflict.” He predicted Trump may tighten sanctions on Iran.

“More sanctions,” he said. “He may be able to communicate with Tehran through [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, who is now a very close ally of the Iranians. That remains to be seen.”

Al Sharif, however, expressed concern that Trump might recognize Israel’s annexation of most of the West Bank under Israel’s current hard right government, which he said “would complicate things dramatically” for the Palestinians and Jordan.
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Over 160,000 Ukrainians fled their home country and came to the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia since the Russian invasion. Physicians were among the 50 thousand or so refugees who came to Latvia. Vladislavs Andrejevs spoke with some of them in Riga. Anna Rice narrates his story. (Camera: Vladislavs Andrejevs ; Produced by
Yuriy Zakrevskiy)
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