President Emmanuel Macron hosts African leaders on Wednesday ahead of an expected announcement that France is withdrawing its troops from Mali after an almost decade-long deployment to battle a jihadist insurgency.

Multiple sources have told AFP that Macron will announce that French forces will leave Mali and redeploy elsewhere in the Sahel region, following a breakdown in relations with the ruling junta.

It remains unclear when, and how, Macron will make the announcement, which could come as part of Wednesday’s meeting or when he travels to Brussels on Thursday for a two-day EU-Africa summit.

The deployment in Mali of a European force known as Takuba — a project driven by Macron to spread the security burden in the troubled region — will also come to an end, the sources said.

The Mali deployment has been fraught with problems for France, with 48 of the 53 soldiers killed during its Barkhane mission in West Africa losing their lives in the country.

France initially deployed troops against jihadists in Mali in 2013 but the insurgency was never fully quelled, and new fears have now emerged of a jihadist push to the Gulf of Guinea.

The announcement of the withdrawal comes at a critical time for Macron, just days ahead of a long-awaited declaration from the president that he will stand for a new term in April elections.

It also coincides with Macron seeking to take a lead role in international diplomacy as he presses Russia to de-escalate in the standoff over Ukraine.

Multiple missions

The working dinner hosted by Macron on Wednesday starting at 1930 GMT will bring together the leaders of France’s key allies in the Sahel region — Chad, Mauritania and Niger.

Officials from Mali as well as Burkina Faso, which also recently experienced a coup, have pointedly not been invited.

Other African leaders will also be present along with European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, as well as Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

There are a total of 25,000 foreign troops currently deployed in the Sahel.

They include around 4,300 French troops, which under a reduction announced last year are due to fall to around 2,500 in 2023 from a peak of 5,400.

Other forces deployed in Mali are the U.N. peacekeeping mission MINUSMA established in 2013 and the EUTM Mali, an EU military training mission that aims to improve the Malian military’s capacity in fighting terrorists.

Some 2,400 French soldiers are deployed in Mali as part of the Barkhane operation as well as the EU Takuba force set up in 2020, which was intended to increase in numbers as French deployment was scaled back.

According to a French source, who asked not to be identified by name, even after departure France will for a period provide MINUSMA and EUTM with support in the air and medical back-up.

‘Reinvent partnership’

Relations between France and Mali have plunged to new lows after the junta led by strongman Assimi Goita refused to stick to a calendar to a return to civilian rule.

The West also accuses Mali of using the services of the hugely controversial Russian mercenary group Wagner to shore up its position, a move that gives Moscow a new foothold in the region.

Especially with the French elections looming, Macron’s priority is to ensure that any withdrawal does not invite comparisons with the chaotic American departure from Afghanistan last year.

Paris, however, intends to continue the anti-jihadist fight in the wider region, where movements affiliated with al-Qaida or the Islamic State group have retained an ability to attack despite the elimination of key leaders.

“We need to reinvent our military partnership with these countries,” said a French presidential source, asking for anonymity.

“It is not a question of moving what is being done in Mali elsewhere, but of reinforcing what is being done in Niger and of supporting the south more.”
…

Everything is normal — or appears so.

Outside the grand nineteenth-century city hall in Lviv, the capital of western Ukraine where Western embassies hurriedly relocated consular staff from Kyiv earlier this week, the streets are bustling.

Children squeal with delight as they try to master their roller-skates in an outdoor skating rink nearby. Their breath steams in the chill evening air. Young lovers kiss, some argue, outside restaurants and bars. Older couples saunter through the narrow streets of Lviv’s historic center, seemingly in their twilight years without a care in the world.

Lviv is much more a tourist town than the Ukrainian capital but there are few foreign visitors here now thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, travel restrictions and the talk of war. Outside a bar a couple of inebriated middle-aged Dutchmen, among the few tourists, linger outside the White Rabbit strip club, debating whether to enter. Their discussion concludes much more rapidly than the diplomatic wrangling over Ukraine, and they stagger inside.

Workers hurry home as the evening turns colder.

But everything is not normal on the eve of the day Western intelligence agencies had warned Russia might invade Ukraine.

“We talk about war and whether Russia will invade all the time,” says Anastasia, a 25-year-old waitress. She moved from a small town in Central Ukraine to Lviv for work, and because she loves the city.

Her face clouds when she talks about Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. “I have family in Russia, too,” she says. “I hope he doesn’t invade; he won’t invade; he can’t; maybe he will,” she says, confused by a riddle that’s also bewildering the statesmen of Europe.

Anastasia shrugs — it is a very Ukrainian gesture, indicating not indifference, just stoicism in the face of the unknown.

For eight years, since Russia annexed Crimea and fomented war in the Donbas region in the east of the country, Ukraine has been collectively shrugging its shoulders — its way of enduring threats and alarms and not allowing fear to disrupt ordinary life.

Carrying on

And that is what it did as Tuesday turned into Wednesday, the day the Russians were supposed to invade. The country shrugged its shoulders and carried on undaunted. In much the same way it has coped with the coronavirus pandemic, aware of the risks but decidedly reluctant to offer the virus any concessions, like actually wearing masks or frequently disinfecting hands.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy declared earlier this week February 16 a Day of Unity, signing decree number 53/2022. He called on Ukrainians to fly flags and sing the national anthem in unison. Ukrainian government officials stressed that Zelenskiy was not predicting an attack Wednesday but responding skeptically to foreign reports about when an attack was likely to come.

“They tell us Feb. 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it a day of unity,” Zelenskiy said in a video address to the nation earlier this week. “They are trying to frighten us by yet again naming a date for the start of military action,” Zelenskiy said. “We will hang our national flags, wear yellow and blue banners, and show the whole world our unity,” he added.

In Lviv, a city all too accustomed through its seven centuries of turbulent and often violent history to invasion and assault, Unity Day was a subdued affair. For most people it was a day much like any other. They just carried on, generally maskless, neither optimistic nor pessimistic: just fatalistic.

“Every president declares this day or that day a holiday, but it is not a religious one,” said Dmitry, a newspaper vendor at a kiosk near St. George’s Cathedral. With a hint of exasperation in his voice, he added: “We are not unpatriotic, but carrying on as normal.”

Nearby at a cafe, Denys, a venture capitalist and equities dealer, says there’s normal and then there is “Ukrainian normal.” He asked for his company not to be identified in this article.

“We have lived with a crazy neighbor for a long time — some would say for centuries,” he says. “Until last week, we weren’t really worried. I think most Ukrainians thought this was just more of the same, not dissimilar to what we have seen since 2014,” he added.

“That changed last week because of an accumulation of factors — intensifying news coverage, embassies leaving Kyiv and airlines canceling flights,” says the father of a one-half-year-old, Mia.

Denys and his wife decided last week to relocate for a couple of weeks to Lviv. “It seemed prudent,” he explained as his blue-eyed daughter paraded around the cafe, dragging a blanket and chuckling. He and his partner and their families are originally from Donetsk, and they all left the city in a hurry in 2014, when armed Russian proxies seized the city.

“My company owns property in Lviv and we had a contingency plan for relocation, so we decided just to put it into operation.” He has never thought Putin would gamble by launching a full-scale invasion. “This has been more of an information war and maybe it will allow all sides to win: Joe Biden and other Western leaders being able to say they are peacemakers, and Putin able to present himself as the lone defender of the Russian people,” he says.

Denys plans to return to Kyiv Sunday, but he’s still scrutinizing the news to see if his hunch is correct.
…

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday he is “troubled by dubious new charges” against Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, who went on trial Tuesday in a penal colony outside of Moscow.

Navalny is accused of embezzlement and contempt of court. If convicted, he could face up to 15 more years in prison. 

“Navalny and his associates are targeted for their work to shine a light on official corruption,” Blinken tweeted. He added a call for Russian authorities to release Navalny “and end their harassment and prosecution of his supporters.” 

The Kremlin critic was arrested in January 2021 and convicted of violating his parole by spending several months in Germany recovering from a poison attack. He was sentenced to two-and-a-half years in prison.

At his new trial, Russian investigators say Navalny embezzled money donated to his FBK anti-corruption political organization. The contempt of court charge stems from Navalny allegedly insulting a judge during a previous trial. 

“It is just that these people, who ordered this trial, are really scared,” Navalny, 45, said during the hearing. “(Scared) of what I say during this trial, of people seeing that the case is obviously fabricated.”  

Navalny adamantly denies the accusations and calls them politically motivated.  

“I am not afraid of this court, of the penal colony, the F.S.B., of the prosecutors, chemical weapons, Putin and all others,” Navalny said in court, according to a video of his statement. “I am not afraid because I believe it is humiliating and useless to be afraid of it all.”

Navalny’s allies have denounced the case, and his lawyer says it is an attempt by the Kremlin to silence him.

“We believe the persecution of Navalny is illegal, is distinctly political in nature, and aimed at discrediting and removing him from political activity,” lawyer Olga Mikhailova said, according to Agence France-Presse. 

A longtime rival of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Navalny has accused the president of enrichening himself as well as other government officials through corrupt measures. His attempt at running in the 2018 presidential elections only aggravated his relations with the Kremlin. 

As of a few months ago Navalny and his associates have been added to a state registry of extremists and terrorists by Russian officials. 
…

Catholic groups Tuesday accused Italy’s Church of an “institutional failure” to confront clergy sexual abuse and demanded an independent national inquiry mirroring ones conducted in France and Germany. 

A collective of nine groups — seven headed by women — issued the demand during the launch of a campaign called “Beyond the Great Silence” and a hashtag, #ItalyChurchToo, inspired by the international #MeToo movement against sexual harassment. 

In an online news conference, Paola Lazzarini, head of Women for the Church, called for the opening of the archives of “all dioceses, convents and monasteries,” damages for victims and the uncovering of the truth, “however painful.” 

Globally, revelations of sexual abuse by clergy have so far cost the Church hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation. 

The Italian campaign aims to increase public pressure on the Church and the government for a national inquiry going back decades and rejects assertions from some Italian Catholic leaders that the Church has the resources to do the work itself. 

“Only independent investigations (elsewhere) have overcome the Church’s resistance to recognize its own institutional failure,” said anti-abuse advocate Ludovica Eugenio. 

Any Italian investigation “absolutely has to be impartial,” added Francesco Zanardi, head of Rete L’Abuso (The Abuse Network). 

Pope Francis has expressed shame at the Church’s inability to deal with sexual abuse cases and said it must make itself a “safe home for everyone.” 

The Vatican had no comment Tuesday. 

Italian bishops are due to decide in May on what type of abuse inquiry, if any, the country will hold. 

Antonio Messina, 28, one of the victims who participated in the news conference, says he was repeatedly abused when he was a minor by an adult seminarian who went on to become a priest. 

Without providing details, he said local church authorities in his hometown had tried to buy his silence. “The Church is not able to handle this (investigation),” he said. 

The German study, released in 2018, showed 1,670 clergymen abused 3,677 minors from 1946 to 2014. The French investigation, released last year and covering seven decades, said more than 200,000 children were abused in Catholic institutions. 

Zanardi said the figures would be higher in predominantly Catholic Italy because the country has traditionally had many more priests. 

 
…

Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny went on trial Tuesday in a penal colony outside of Moscow, accused of embezzlement and contempt of court. If convicted, he could face up to 15 more years in prison. 

The hearing is taking place inside the maximum-security prison in Moscow’s Lefortovsky district court, where he is being held, 96 kilometers from Moscow. 

The Kremlin critic was arrested in January 2021 and convicted of violating his parole by spending several months in Germany recovering from a poison attack. He was sentenced to 2½ years in prison. 

At his new trial, Russian investigators say Navalny embezzled money donated to his FBK anti-corruption political organization. The contempt of court charge stems from Navalny allegedly insulting a judge during a previous trial. 

“It is just that these people, who ordered this trial, are really scared,” Navalny, 45, said during the hearing. “(Scared) of what I say during this trial, of people seeing that the case is obviously fabricated.” 

Navalny adamantly denies the accusations and calls them politically motivated. 

“I am not afraid of this court, of the penal colony, the F.S.B., of the prosecutors, chemical weapons, Putin and all others,” Navalny said in court, according to a video of his statement. “I am not afraid because I believe it is humiliating and useless to be afraid of it all.” 

Navalny’s allies have denounced the case, and his lawyer says it is an attempt by the Kremlin to silence him. 

“We believe the persecution of Navalny is illegal, is distinctly political in nature, and aimed at discrediting and removing him from political activity,” lawyer Olga Mikhailova said, according to Agence France-Presse. 

A longtime rival of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Navalny has accused the president of enrichening himself as well as other government officials through corrupt measures. His attempt at running in the 2018 presidential elections only aggravated his relations with the Kremlin. 

As of a few months ago Navalny and his associates have been added to a state registry of extremists and terrorists by Russian officials. 

 
…

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has arrived in Brussels for talks with NATO leadership and allied defense ministers, as tens of thousands of Russian troops have surrounded Ukraine from the north, south and east.

During the gathering on Wednesday and Thursday, Austin and his counterparts will discuss how to deter Russia from invading Ukraine while shoring up defenses on the alliance’s eastern flank.

“This really is a decisive moment for NATO, the likes of which we have not really seen potentially since NATO was established in 1949,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “This is where American leadership in NATO matters,” he told VOA.

The “underlying message” from NATO and the United States will be to protect the international rules-based order by calling out “egregious attempts to undermine the rule of law” and “upholding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states,” according to a senior defense official.

“We cannot allow an adversary to try to redraw borders by force without facing significant consequences,” the official added.

Austin will then travel to NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Russian neighbors that have watched the developments surrounding Ukraine with increasing concern.

While in Poland on Friday, Austin will meet with President Andrzej Duda before visiting U.S. troops. The United States will soon have about 9,000 troops in Poland after President Joe Biden earlier this month ordered nearly 5,000 additional troops to deploy there, citing security concerns due to Russia’s recent moves.

In Lithuania, Austin will meet with President Gitanas Nauseda and host a meeting with that country’s defense minister along with those from Estonia and Latvia.

President Joe Biden said Tuesday Russia has 150,000 troops surrounding Ukraine, including in Belarus to the north, the illegally annexed Crimea region to the south, and along the Russian border with Ukraine to the east. Russian ships are also exercising nearby in the Black Sea, which prompted a formal protest from Ukraine’s foreign ministry.

“I think of a boa constrictor that is squeezing Ukraine to force the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky to blink, to make some giant concession,” retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who once commanded U.S. Army forces in Europe, told VOA.

Russia’s defense ministry announced Tuesday that some military units would pull back to their bases, a claim that Biden said the U.S. had not yet verified.

Meanwhile, Russian legislators passed proposals Tuesday calling on President Vladimir Putin to formally recognize the separatist-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine as independent states, in a move that could justify an incursion in an area it no longer recognizes as Ukraine’s territory.

The United States has pushed for a diplomatic solution to the tensions and has said it will not fight Russian forces in Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO.

The U.S. has shipped planeloads of lethal military aid to Ukraine in recent weeks, including Javelin anti-tank weapons and ammunition. A small number of U.S. troops had also trained Ukrainian soldiers through a program that started following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, but those troops were ordered by Austin to leave Ukraine a few days ago, citing concerns that a potential Russian invasion could come at any moment.

NATO allies have made multiple attempts to get Putin to pull his troops away from Ukraine’s border and have threatened severe economic sanctions should Russian troops invade.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Moscow on Tuesday for talks with Putin. Biden called Putin on Saturday. French President Emanuel Macron spoke face to face with Putin last week.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, on the other hand, expressed his support for Putin during the heightened tensions over Moscow’s forces surrounding Ukraine.

Current and former U.S. officials have warned that an invasion of Ukraine could embolden other adversaries.

“If the United States with all of our allies, all of our partners and the combined diplomatic and economic power, cannot deter the Kremlin from … another attack on Ukraine, then I think the Chinese Communist Party leadership is not going to be terribly impressed by anything that we say about Taiwan or the South China Sea,” Hodges said.
…

The European Union and African Union are holding their once every-three-year summit this week, after a two-year delay due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Leaders from the two continents will meet in Brussels to discuss, among other things, the reaction to the pandemic and helping Africa adapt to climate change.

African countries are not happy with the EU travel bans, vaccine distribution, and unwillingness to lift intellectual property rights on vaccines that can help the continent produce COVID vaccines. 

Tobias Wellner is a senior analyst with Dragonfly Intelligence, a group that studies global security and political risks. He said the summit will focus on mending relations strained by the pandemic.  

“African leaders were very upset about travel restrictions imposed by European states and we can expect that they will also speak out against the unequal distribution of COVID vaccines,” Wellner said. “Overall, the summit is probably going to be much more about reconnecting after troubled pandemic times, rather than a large diplomatic leap forward.” 

French President Emmanuel Macron told journalists his country and the EU will prioritize the relationship with Africa and establish a peace system that can build investments in African economies. 

The EU is facing competition in Africa from China, which has backed huge infrastructure projects across the continent, and also from Russia which is challenging France’s influence in central and western African countries.   

Wellner said the European Union cannot abandon its vision of seeing good governance and respect for people’s rights in Africa. 

“The EU will likely continue conditioning economic and security support for African countries on its principles, democracy, human rights and the rule of law,” Wellner said. “In this regard, the EU is probably going to continue acting more cautiously and differently from — for example — from China. There is unlikely to be a large change of politics at the summit. EU policy change takes a lot of time to change, because there are a lot of different positions within Europe that all need to be brought together. So the change, especially on the institutional levels, tends to be quite long.” 

 The two-day conference will also focus on concerns over how to mitigate the impact of climate change in Africa.  

Wanjira Mathai, the vice-president and regional director at the World Resources Institute, says rich countries need to pay for adaptation programs.  

“The biggest polluters, 80% of all global emissions, sit within the G20 and so those economies have to do the most to reduce their emissions,” Mathai said. “The climate finance agenda there has been for many years. Africa is one of the climate-vulnerable regions but we also have others but the majority of countries that require finance to take care of the adaptation capacity that finance have not been forthcoming. We know there were $100 billion goals that were not met, so there is a very clear agenda to meet the shortfall of that $100 billion.” 

Speaking at a webinar organized by the Europe Africa Foundation last month, Senegalese President Macky Sall said there was a need to develop a climate-friendly strategy and consider the level of development of African countries. 

 
…

Britain’s Prince Andrew has settled a lawsuit from Virginia Giuffre, the woman who accused him of sexually assaulting her when she was 17.

News of the settlement came in a letter filed with a Manhattan court Tuesday by Giuffre’s lawyer David Boies.

Details of the settlement have not been disclosed, but the letter said Andrew “intends to make a substantial donation to Ms. Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights.”

“Prince Andrew has never intended to malign Ms. Giuffre’s character, and he accepts that she has suffered both as an established victim of abuse and as a result of unfair public attacks,” the letter reads. “It is known that Jeffrey Epstein trafficked countless young girls over many years. Prince Andrew regrets his association with Epstein and commends the bravery of Ms. Giuffre and other survivors in standing up for themselves and others.”

Giuffre, now 38, says she was trafficked by Epstein and his longtime companion Ghislaine Maxwell, who was recently convicted of sex trafficking.

Giuffre says the two forced her to perform sexual acts with Andrew. Andrew has denied the charges and did not admit to any of the accusations against him in Tuesday’s statement.

In 2019, Epstein was found dead in a Manhattan jail while he awaited another trial for sex trafficking. His death was ruled a suicide.

Last month, Andrew’s mother, Queen Elizabeth II, stripped him of all his military and royal duties.
…

Britain announced Tuesday it would co-host an international conference with the United Nations next month to help address the growing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, where aid workers fear acute hunger could kill more people than the preceding 20 years of war.

The conference is being organized to raise $4.4 billion the U.N. is seeking to deliver food, shelter and health services to about 23 million Afghans — more than half of the country’s population – that need aid to survive.

“The scale of need is unparalleled, and consequences of inaction will be devastating,” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said in a statement.

“The conference is a critical moment for the international community to step up support in an effort to stop the growing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan,” Truss stressed.

Tuesday’s announcement comes nearly a week after a high-level British delegation traveled to the Afghan capital, Kabul, for talks with Taliban leaders on how to respond to Afghanistan’s deepening humanitarian crisis.

Aid agencies say humanitarian needs have skyrocketed in the war-torn country since the Taliban took power last year and U.S.-led international forces withdrew from the country.

When the Islamist group took control of Afghanistan on August 15, wide-ranging terrorism-related international sanctions dating back to the Taliban’s first time in power from 1996 to 2001 followed.

The United States and other Western nations have also suspended non-humanitarian funding, amounting to 40% of the country’s gross domestic product. The funding had propped up 75% of public spending, including basic services.

Washington has frozen about $9.5 billion in Afghan foreign assets, mostly held in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to keep the Taliban from accessing it.

The punitive financial measures have pushed the aid-dependent Afghan economy to the brink of collapse and exacerbated the simmering humanitarian crisis, which stems from more than four decades of conflict and natural calamities.

No country has recognized the Taliban government but international engagements with the group have gradually increased to help prevent one of the world’s worst humanitarian emergencies.

The International Rescue Committee said Tuesday that 97% of the Afghan population is expected to be living well below the poverty line by the second half of this year.

“Unaddressed, the current humanitarian crisis could lead to more deaths than 20 years of war,” the IRC warned.

Vicki Aken, IRC Afghanistan director, said the current economic crisis is contributing to a “catastrophic” humanitarian emergency, urging the U.S. and Europe to review their policy to help address the Afghan economic crisis.

Aken blamed the international policies for driving Afghanistan’s slide towards catastrophe, rather than conflict or natural disaster.

“Right now, every day Afghans are being punished by international policies that are leaving millions on the brink of starvation, she said.

“The next six months necessitate an improvement, and the power to ensure it happens lies in the hands of the international community,” she said. The cost of failure is too high,” Aken warned.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has taken steps to allow for humanitarian operations to continue, making changes to U.S. laws and following it up with a resolution at the U.N. Security Council.

“The U.S. strongly encourages both direct provision of humanitarian assistance as well as financial transactions that support those agencies that are providing humanitarian assistance,” a USAID official told VOA. “We have made it legal.”

Some relatives of victims of the September 2001 terror attacks on the United States have sought to gain access to the Afghan frozen funds since the Taliban takeover, to pay out compensation claims.

On Friday, President Joe Biden signed an executive order that will keep half of that money frozen for potential lawsuits and facilitate access to the other $3.5 billion to assist the Afghan people. The action has stoked anger among Afghans and critics warned it would worsen the economic crisis in the country.

Margaret Besheer at the UN contributed to this report.
…

Little more than a week ago, the questions from non-Chinese reporters at daily Olympics briefings were about sensitive things involving China — tennis player Peng Shuai, the government’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims in the northwest, the efficiency of the anti-COVID “closed-loop system.”

These days, they’re all about a drug scandal — the one with Russia at the center — and not much else.

The doping saga unfolding around Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva has been a Games-changer at the Beijing Olympics, pushing aside dicey topics that Chinese officials like to avoid answering.

“The big winner in the Valieva scandal is the Chinese government,” Olympic historian David Wallechinsky said in an email. He has been a consistent critic of China’s government and stayed away from these Games, his first Olympic absence since 1988.

“What a relief for them to not have to fend off comments about human rights,” Wallechinsky quipped.

The focus is now on 15-year-old Valieva, which will continue through her long program on Thursday when she is expected to win gold — her second of the Games — but be banned from any medal ceremony after failing a pre-Games doping test.

The IOC has said it “would not be appropriate to hold the medal ceremony” with her case sure to wind up again in the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which ruled on Monday that she could compete. She seems sure to dominate the briefings until the Games end on Sunday, leaving room for little else.

Peng, once the world’s No. 1-ranked tennis doubles player, made sexual assault allegations against a former high-ranking member of China’s ruling Communist Party. The charges three months ago were scrubbed immediately from China’s censored internet, placing the subject out of bounds for Chinese reporters.

Yang Shu’an, the high-profile organizing committee vice president, nearly stumbled in a briefing when — speaking in English — he was asked about Peng and almost mentioned her by name. Of course, saying it would acknowledge that Chinese officials are aware of her case.

China’s internment of at least 1 million Uyghurs has been termed genocide by the United States and others, which China calls the “lie of the century.” This topic is also off limits for Chinese reporters and, by its own choice, the International Olympic Committee.

“The position of the IOC must be, given the political neutrality, that we are not commenting on political issues,” IOC President Thomas Bach said at the briefing Feb. 3, the day before the Games opened. Bach also seldom mentions the Uyghurs by name.

Still, uncomfortable queries about Peng and the Uyghurs kept coming as the Games opened. COVID-19 questions were popular, too, as was criticism about China’s “case-hardened” bubble that separates reporters and athletes from 20 million Beijing residents.

There was a question about Jack Ma, China’s e-commerce billionaire who has largely disappeared from public view. Ma is the founder of the Alibaba Group, which is a major IOC sponsor.

There were persistent questions about athletes’ safety if their comments upset officials of China’s authoritarian government. But those began to fade as few spoke up.

Then came Feb. 9: Day 5 of the Olympics.

“A situation arose today at short notice which requires legal consultation,” IOC spokesman Adams said. “You’ll appreciate because there are legal implications involved that I can’t talk very much about it at this stage.”

Non-Chinese reporters quizzed Adams about the details for days. Questions from Chinese state-controlled media continued to center on soliciting laudatory comments about the venues, offering praise of the efficient organization — and laments about the scarce supply of Bing Dwen Dwen panda mascots.

Much news is local, so Chinese reporters are not alone in this. But not one offered a question about Valieva as non-Chinese continued to press Adams about the unfolding mystery.

“I can’t give you any more details,” Adams said. He repeated this for several days in varied forms. “I’m afraid, as you know, legal issues can sometimes drag on.”

After days of dominating the briefings, news came Monday that Valieva had been cleared to compete despite failing a pre-Games drug test. She skates this week and is the favorite to win the gold on Thursday, where she may lead a 1-2-3 sweep by Russian women.

And everybody’s watching. They’ll be doing so not just for her skating prowess, but for the next chapter in the saga of a girl buffeted by powerful forces and a nation known for doing what it takes to get the outcome it wants.

A nation that, for the moment, isn’t China.

“This is likely a welcome distraction from other potential subversions or critiques of the Games and of China at large,” Maria Repnikova, a China expert at Georgia State University, said in a email to Associated Press.

“Since the Olympics tend to present apt opportunities for the international community to investigate and widely report on the host country, having a scandal that takes the attention away from China in this case plays in favor of Chinese authorities.”
…

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged Russia, Ukraine and the West on Monday to de-escalate tensions, saying “there is no alternative to diplomacy.” 

“The price in human suffering, destruction and damage to European and global security is too high to contemplate,” he said of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the West says could happen as soon as Wednesday. 

“We simply cannot accept even the possibility of such a disastrous confrontation,” he said at United Nations headquarters.  

He pledged to remain engaged with the parties, offering his offices to help find a solution.  

Guterres spoke to reporters after returning from a regular monthly luncheon held with the 15 members of the U.N. Security Council. Russia holds the rotating presidency of the council this month and hosted the luncheon at their U.N. mission.   

Earlier Monday, Guterres had a virtual meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that lasted about 20 minutes. He then spoke separately with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.   

Guterres did not divulge details of his discussions, but he welcomed recent diplomatic contacts, including among heads of state. But he cautioned that incendiary rhetoric is not helpful.  

“Public statements should aim to reduce tensions, not inflame them,” the U.N. chief said.   

He also quoted from the U.N. Charter, emphasizing its call on members to settle their international disputes peacefully and refrain “from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”   

“Abandoning diplomacy for confrontation is not a step over a line, it is a dive over a cliff,” Guterres warned. “In short, my appeal is this: Do not fail the cause of peace.”   
…

Despite their popularity in recent years, Azerbaijan’s Valentine’s Day celebrations are somewhat muted this year. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, as well as poverty, are blamed by some shopkeepers for the gloomy attitude.

“During the pandemic, our business has been weak. Can’t sell much,” street vendor Tamkin Nagiyev told VOA. “People ask the price, then citing the high prices, they do not purchase. They just celebrate it with one flower.”

Ruslan Abdullayev, a flower shop owner, confirmed the pandemic’s impact, saying consumers’ ability to cope has been severely weakened.

“Previously, we sold each flower for 20 Manats ($11.75). Now, they don’t even want to buy it for 10,” said Abdullayev, who noted that while food prices have risen, flower prices have decreased.

Valentine’s Day is not an official holiday in Azerbaijan. It gained popularity in recent years through Western influence and has special appeal to younger generations. The day offers yet another occasion for those seeking to demonstrate their appreciation for love, fueled by commercial interests, social media and possibly a love of chocolate.

Many people in Baku, Azerbaijan’s largely Muslim capital, told VOA they approve of the day.

“We are not opposed to its celebration,” Ilhama Mammadova said. “Every woman would want to love and be loved. To be loved is the right of each woman.”

Another Baku resident, Orkhan Dadashov, agreed.

“Love doesn’t have a day. But speaking materially, at least once a year we can buy a flower and celebrate it. Everyone can do so according to his or her means,” Dadashov said.

But Elkhan Arifli, who celebrates Islamic religious holidays, said he does not consider Valentine’s Day to be a national holiday for Azerbaijanis.

“Actually, this is not our holiday. This is a Christian holiday. Lovers don’t have a day. For those who love, every day is a holiday,” he told VOA.

In recent months, several Azerbaijanis proposed moving Valentine’s Day from February 14 to June 30, the wedding day of Ilham and Fariza Allahverdiyeva, who came to symbolize Azerbaijan’s struggle for independence from the Soviet Union in 1990. Ilham was among dozens killed by gunfire while protesting for independence. Fariza committed suicide soon after. Their love story is still remembered.

Many, like Baku resident Farida Mehdiyeva, still consider Valentine’s Day a positive cultural addition for those who attach significance to romance.

“True, some people do not want us to celebrate this day,” Mehdiyeva said. “But I do. I personally feel the mood of celebration.”

This story originated in VOA’s Azerbaijan Service with contributions from Asgar Asgarov.

 
…

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting the United Arab Emirates, hoping to repair strained ties. Analysts say shared concerns over Iran could provide common ground.

Erdogan said that his two-day visit to the United Arab Emirates, which began Monday, aims to ease years of tension and rivalry with the Persian Gulf state.

He said that with the visit, Turkey aims to develop the momentum it has achieved and to take the necessary steps to bring relations back to the level, he said, they deserve.

Turkey has found itself increasingly isolated across the Middle East, due largely to Ankara’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood Islamist group, something that has caused unease among many Middle Eastern leaders.

Teacher of international relations Soli Ozel at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University says Erdogan’s UAE visit is part of a wider regional reset, with Iran providing crucial common ground.

“Turkey’s charm offensive has targeted several countries, with one of them the United Arab Emirates. Both countries have an interest, along with all the western countries, for Iran not to be so influential as it is today,” he said.

Turkey is increasingly in competition with Iran, from the Caucasus to Syria.

Last week Turkish pro-government media reported several alleged Iranian agents were arrested in Turkey in a joint Turkish-Israeli intelligence service operation to thwart the assassination of a Turkish-Israeli businessman.

The arrests came after Iran recently cut off natural gas supplies to Turkey for more than a week, causing much of the country’s manufacturing sector to shut down for several days.

Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the European Council, says there are suspicions the gas shut-off may have been politically motivated.

“We’ve seen Iran cut off the natural gas for Turkey ostensibly because [it] had something breaking down or it [Iran] needed it for its internal market. But it’s no coincidence that this happened after a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Iran leader [Ebrahim] Raisi. This was clearly a message to Turkey,” she said.

Iran and Russia are working closely together in Syria in backing the Damascus regime, while Turkey backs Syrian rebels. Moscow has also voiced its anger over Ankara selling armed drones to Ukraine.

Analyst Ozel warns that the Turkish-Iranian rivalry is likely to escalate, with Ankara sharing Western and Middle Eastern countries’ fears over Iran’s nuclear energy program.

“If Turkey wants to jump on board in that struggle, then yes, we can expect Turkish-Iranian relations to be a bit testy. On the other hand, Turkey and Iran manage to have competitive and cooperative relations for centuries, so they are pretty well versed on how to do that,” he said.

If there’s a breakdown in talks between Iran and the international community to resolve concerns over Iran’s nuclear energy program, analysts warn that Turkey’s effort to balance competition and rivalry with its Iranian neighbor could face a greater test.
…

Polish ministers say they are drafting plans with the country’s regional governors to cope with the possible arrival of up to a million refugees from neighboring Ukraine in the event Russia decides to invade — an action U.S. and British officials have warned could come as early as this week.

Mariusz Kamiński, the country’s interior minister, sought to reassure Poles the country is ready for what could be the biggest refugee crisis to roil Europe since 2015, when the influx into the European Union of more than a million refugees and migrants from the Middle East and the sub-Sahara roiled the continent’s politics.

“It is obvious that in connection with the situation in Ukraine we have been preparing for different scenarios,” the interior minister said in a posting on Twitter. “One of them includes activities by provincial governors related to the potential influx of refugees from Ukraine, who may be looking for shelter in our country as a result of the potential conflict,” he added.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has warned Poles that a “military conflict is no longer an unlikely scenario” and, echoing the warnings of officials in Washington and London, said Europe is “on the verge of war.” On Sunday, he accused Russia of trying once again to violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity, which he dubbed “an assault on European stability and security” and a “threat to the peace of the entire continent.”

Poland is already home to around one million Ukrainians, who arrived over the years as economic migrants. Poland is not the only central European nation readying for a refugee surge. Latvia has said it is preparing to accept 10,000 Ukrainian refugees, if Russian President Vladimir Putin orders an invasion of Ukraine.

Estonian President Alar Karis is warning that a similar migrant crisis could occur between Estonia and Russia as happened between Poland and Belarus, when migrants were pushed toward the border last year in an apparent attempt to create chaos by Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian leader and Putin ally.

“Tensions are very high,” Karis told the BBC.

Moscow denials

The Kremlin denies Western accusations that it is planning to invade Ukraine, despite deploying along Ukrainian borders the biggest ground force amassed since 1945. Russia’s foreign ministry says Western media are colluding in a smear campaign against Moscow with the goal of “discrediting Russia’s fair demands on security guarantees and justifying the West’s geopolitical aspirations and militarization of the territory of Ukraine.”

Russia has demanded Ukraine never join NATO. And the Kremlin wants any NATO military presence removed from the former Communist countries of central Europe, once members of the Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact and now participants in the Western alliance.

U.S. and British officials remain unconvinced by Russia’s denials.

“There are 130,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine; thousands more in amphibious vehicles on the Black Sea and the Azov Sea,” Britain’s armed forces minister, James Heappey, said Monday. “If all of this were for show, to win leverage in diplomacy, that doesn’t need the logistics, the fuel, the medical supplies, the bridging assets, the unglamorous stuff that makes an invasion force credible but doesn’t attract headlines. All of that is now in place too,” he added.

Flights

According to reports, some wealthy Ukrainians are not waiting to see whether a Russian offensive is launched. Ukrainska Pravda, a Kyiv-based newspaper, reported there has been an increase in private executive jets leaving Ukraine.

The paper said more than 20 private jets flew out of Kyiv on February 13 and over the last two weeks aircraft owned by some of the country’s richest oligarchs and businessmen, including Rinat Akhmetov, Victor Pinchuk, Borys Kolesnikov and Vadym Stolar, left the country, with many carrying family members and business associates and most heading to Vienna.

While the wealthy apparently are departing, the Ukrainian government is scrambling to ensure commercial carriers continue to fly in and out of Ukraine. Last week, Dutch airline KLM announced it was suspending Ukraine operations because of safety concerns. And the flights of Ukrainian budget airline SkyUp have been disrupted because a leasing company is demanding the return of its aircraft.

Other airlines, including German carrier Lufthansa, are weighing their options, partly because their insurers are becoming jittery. Ukraine’s transport ministry said Sunday that Ukrainian skies remain open. “Information about the closure of Ukraine’s airspace is not true. Closure of airspace is a sovereign right of Ukraine; no decision has been made,” it said in a statement.

The ministry announced a $590 million fund to be used for “guaranteeing the safety of flights through Ukraine for insurance companies, reinsurers, leasing companies and airlines.” The move came amid reports that British reinsurance giant Lloyd’s of London is considering suspending war insurance provisions for carriers flying into or over Ukraine.

Urging calm

As the transport ministry made its announcement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy downplayed reports of an imminent invasion, and complained of media reports stoking panic.

Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian leaders have been trying to talk down the prospects of an all-out war because of the damaging effect it is having on the country’s economy and are worried about the impact on public morale.

While trying to calm fears, his government has called formally for a meeting with Russia and other members of a European security group over the military buildup. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Russia has so far ignored requests to explain the deployment. Ukraine made a request for an explanation via the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE. Russia “must fulfill its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all,” Kuleba said.

On Sunday, President Zelenskiy spoke for nearly an hour by phone with U.S. President Joe Biden. The White House said President Biden reiterated U.S. support for Ukraine, and that both leaders had agreed on “the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence.”

In the latest attempt to find a diplomatic solution, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was scheduled to hold meetings with President Zelenskiy in Kyiv later Monday, and with President Putin in Moscow on Tuesday. The chancellor has warned of severe economic consequences for Russia should it launch any invasion, echoing statements by other Western leaders.
…

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been going on for a long time and has many fronts, not just military. The religious schism between the Moscow and Kyiv Patriarchates of the Orthodox Church, and the struggle over the use of the Russian or Ukrainian language are two important battlegrounds in this conflict. Jon Spier narrates this report by Ricardo Marquina in Kyiv.
…

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is hosting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks Monday in Kyiv as Western leaders express solidarity with Ukraine amid fears of a Russian invasion.

Scholz told reporters Sunday that Russia’s buildup of troops along the border with Ukraine is a “very, very serious threat,” and that his Monday visit to Kyiv and a Tuesday stop in Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin are about finding “a way to ensure peace in Europe.”

Ukraine on Sunday requested that Russia and the other members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe take part in a meeting within two days to discuss the Russian troop movements.

“If Russia is serious when it talks about the indivisibility of security in the OSCE space, it must fulfill its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted.

The U.S. mission to the USCE expressed its support, saying in its own message, “The time for transparency is now.”

Russia has denied its plans to invade Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden assured Zelenskiy in a phone call Sunday of the U.S. commitment to “Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The White House said in a statement that Biden “made clear [to Zelenskiy] that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively, together with its allies and partners, to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

Biden has ruled out sending U.S. troops to fight alongside Ukrainians in the event of a Russian invasion, while vowing to impose “swift and severe” economic sanctions. 

The White House said Biden and Zelenskiy “agreed on the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence” to a Moscow invasion, although Western diplomatic overtures to Putin have so far failed to end the stalemate. 

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, told CNN’s “State of the Union” show that the U.S. cannot predict whether Russia might invade this week or after the Beijing Olympics end in a week, but that there is “a distinct possibility there will be a major military action.” 

While the U.S. has warned for several months of the threat of a Russian attack, Sullivan said “in the last few days” Moscow has accelerated its military buildup. 

Biden, in an hour-long call Saturday with Putin, warned the Russian leader that invading Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering.” Biden said the United States and its allies remained committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but were “equally prepared for other scenarios.”

Russia said Biden continued to fail to address Moscow’s main security concerns, including ruling out Ukraine’s possible membership in the 30-country NATO military alliance. 

The Western allies have called the idea of Russian veto power over NATO membership a nonstarter, but said they are willing to negotiate other security issues, such as positioning of missiles in NATO counties closest to Russia and NATO troop training exercises. 

Russia’s military has more than 130,000 troops to the north of Ukraine in Russian ally Belarus and along Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia, while also positioning warships to the south in the Black Sea along the Crimean Peninsula that Russia unilaterally annexed from Ukraine in 2014. 

“I’m not handicapping what will happen,” Sullivan said, but added that the U.S. and its allies would impose a “significant strategic [economic] loss” on Russia if it attacks Ukraine.  

While ruling out sending the U.S. military to fight in Ukraine, Biden sent 5,000 U.S. troops to NATO countries in eastern European countries closest to Russia to help bolster their fighting forces.  

The U.S. has urged all Americans living in Ukraine to leave immediately, and the Defense Department has pulled out 160 military advisers who had been assisting the Ukrainian government.  

Sullivan said the U.S. believes a Russian attack could start with a barrage of missiles and aerial bombings followed by a ground invasion.  

“Civilians could be killed regardless of their nationality,” he said. 

Numerous countries have ordered their diplomatic personnel to leave Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, while some are keeping smaller contingents in consulates in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, near the Polish border. 

Several international airlines have stopped flying into Ukraine because of the impending threat of warfare, although Ukraine said it has not closed its airspace. 

Dutch airline KLM said Saturday that it has canceled flights to Ukraine until further notice. 

Dutch worries about the potential danger in Ukrainian airspace are high in the wake of the 2014 shootdown of a Malaysian airliner over an area of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed rebels. All 298 people aboard were killed, including 198 Dutch citizens. 

The Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp said Sunday that its flight from Madeira, Portugal, to Kyiv was diverted to the Moldovan capital, Chisinau, after the Irish leasing company that owns the plane said it was banning flights in Ukrainian airspace. 

Some material in this report came from the Associated Press and Reuters.  
…

BEIJING — Asian stock markets fell Monday and oil prices rose amid concern about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Tokyo’s benchmark index fell by an unusually wide daily margin of 2.6%. Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul also retreated. 

On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 index tumbled 1.9% on Friday after the White House encouraged Americans to leave Ukraine within 48 hours. Other governments including Russia were pulling diplomats and their citizens out of the country. 

Russia is one of the biggest oil producers. Any military action that disrupts supplies could send shockwaves through global energy markets and industry.

“Markets are belatedly waking up to the geopolitical risks posed by Russian military action against Ukraine,” said Rabobank in a report.

The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo fell 2.6% to 26,970.34 and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1% to 24,665.17. The Kospi in Seoul retreated 1.6% to 2,703.06.

The Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.4% to 3,448.46 while Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 gained 0.6% to 7,257.70. New Zealand and Jakarta declined while Singapore was unchanged.

Investors already were on edge about Federal Reserve plans to wind down economic stimulus to cool inflation that is at a four-decade high and about how quickly Europe and other central banks would follow. 

On Friday, the S&P 500 declined to 4,418.64 for its fourth weekly loss in the past six weeks after President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the threat of a Russian attack is “immediately enough” that Americans should leave Ukraine.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.4% to 34,738.06. The Nasdaq composite dropped 2.8% to 13,791.15.

Investors moved money into Treasury bonds, gold and other assets seen as safe havens.

The market price of a 10-year Treasury rose, pushing down its yield, or the difference between the day’s price and the payout if held to maturity, to 1.91% from Thursday’s 2.03%.

Treasury prices had been falling on expectations the Fed will raise interest rates as many as seven times this year. If the Fed succeeds in cooling inflation, that would increase the buying power of the payout from bonds, making them a more attractive investment.

In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude rose $1.52 to $94.62 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added $3.22 on Friday to $93.10. Brent crude, the price basis for international oils, advanced $1.36 to $95.80 per barrel in London. It gained $3.03 the previous session to $94.44.

The dollar gained to 115.50 yen from Friday’s 115.27 yen. The euro advanced to $1.1349 from $1.1334. 
…

The guessing game about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions continued Sunday, with alarmed Western military officials and independent experts agreeing the Kremlin has amassed sufficient forces to invade Ukraine.

Disagreements persist, though, among allies over whether the military buildup is a feint designed to extract Western concessions or an invasion force primed for assault.

Washington and London believe Russia is not pretending, and that the forces deployed on three sides of Ukraine are not just mirroring an invasion force but are ready to mount an offensive.

“The worrying thing is that despite the massive amount of increased diplomacy, that military buildup has continued. It has not paused, it has continued,” Britain’s Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Saturday.

Wallace likened Western diplomacy aimed at averting a Russian invasion of Ukraine to appeasement, telling newspapers in London there’s a “whiff of Munich in the air from some in the West,” a reference to the Munich agreement of 1938 that allowed Nazi Germany to annex Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland.

Despite Wallace’s fighting talk, the British flag was lowered Sunday at the country’s Kyiv embassy, with local staff saying they had been told the mission in effect will be closed Monday, with only the ambassador and military attaches remaining.

While British officials fear Putin is ready to discount the threat of Western sanctions and has priced them into his war calculations, their counterparts in Paris and Berlin believe an escalation will not happen this week. French officials are playing down a detailed intelligence report from the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies, which has been shared with NATO allies, outlining a Russian invasion plan they believe could be scheduled for this Wednesday.

Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron talked for two hours Saturday. An Elysée palace official told French media that Putin made “no indication that he is going to go on the offensive.” French officials still hold out hopes that diplomacy can avert a conflict and say Putin and Macron agreed to pursue further dialogue, much as U.S. President Joe Biden and the Russian leader agreed to do so during their hourlong phone conversation Saturday.

Nonetheless, Paris is observing the same precautionary principle as the United States and other European nations and recommending foreign nationals leave Ukraine immediately.

“We are nevertheless extremely vigilant and alert to the Russian posture in order to avoid the worst,” a French official said. Germany is moving its consulate based in Dnipro in central Ukraine to the western Ukrainian town of Lviv. This is its second relocation — it was moved from Donetsk in 2014 when Russian armed proxies seized the city.

Britain is also moving its Kyiv consulate to Lviv, and consular staff will focus on assisting British nationals who want to leave Ukraine, say local staff, who will receive advance payments, which can be paid into foreign bank accounts, if they want.

The Kremlin denies it is planning to invade Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry Sunday accused Western media of colluding in a smear campaign against Moscow with the goal of “discrediting Russia’s fair demands on security guarantees and justifying the West’s geopolitical aspirations and militarization of the territory of Ukraine.”

Russian officials echoed a claim made Saturday by Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who also spoke on the telephone. Lavrov accused Washington of encouraging Kyiv to launch a false-flag military offensive in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, part of which has been occupied by Russian forces and Kremlin-backed proxies since 2014.

This is the mirror of a charge being made by Western officials that Russia is preparing a false-flag provocation to trick the Ukrainians into responding, giving the Kremlin a pretext for an offensive.

The Conflict Intelligence Team, a group of independent military investigators based in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, said in a statement Saturday the force Russia has massed on Ukraine’s borders is highly sophisticated and equipped for an invasion.

“We definitely cannot rule out that building up this offensive force is nothing more than an infowar. … But what we see on the ground is no different from an actual preparation for an invasion,” the group said.

References to Munich were being made Sunday by other European politicians, aside from Wallace. In Britain, senior Conservative lawmaker and chair of the British Parliament’s defense committee Tobias Ellwood criticized Western powers’ decision not to deploy forces in Ukraine to act as a deterrent in an article for The Sunday Telegraph.

“What leverage have we assembled to dissuade Vladimir Putin from invading?” he asked, “Where is the deterrence? Simply put, we have no Russia strategy.”

“As soon as we ruled out sending NATO forces into Ukraine, we were no longer in control of events,” he added. “This is about much more than Ukraine. It’s a totemic moment as we enter an era of increasing instability,” he concluded.

“In this situation of increasing tension it must be important for countries as well as others to have key diplomatic staff close to the authorities. Embassies now leaving Kyiv send absolutely the wrong signal,” tweeted former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt.

In Kyiv, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the country’s ground forces, told reporters his troops are “ready and capable.”

“We will not give up a single meter of Ukrainian land without a fight,” he said.

Ukrainian officials were fuming Sunday, though, at the Western evacuations, saying they are encouraging the Kremlin.

Ordinary Ukrainians have been calm about unfolding events, but the closure of embassies and relocation of consulates have caught their attention, and those with connections to Westerners appear now to be starting to get alarmed.

“The West does not know what to do with all this mess between Russia and Ukraine and they will be happy to get rid of the headache as soon as possible,” reckons Iuliia Osmolovska, a former Ukrainian diplomat and now an analyst at the Eastern European Security Institute, a think tank in Kyiv.

Like some other analysts and Ukrainian officials, she suspects Western powers will urge Kyiv to accept the 2015 Minsk Accord, an agreement Ukraine made with Moscow to halt fighting in the Donbass. The agreement has never been implemented and is highly unpopular in Ukraine as it would allow the Kremlin to interfere in Ukraine’s domestic politics.

Osmolovska does “not think that the West has given up on Ukraine, because it will suffer huge reputational loss worldwide,” but she doubts that the Western “threats of severe economic sanctions will deter Russia” and judges that the “Kremlin’s menacing military posture will strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in security talks with U.S. and NATO.”

A high ranking United Nations official dismissed comparisons to Munich, telling VOA: “Biden and his team are doing their best including publicly exposing potential Russian moves ahead of time to ward off the attack.”
…

U.S. President Joe Biden again warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in a telephone call Saturday of “swift and severe” consequences if Russia invades Ukraine, according to a statement from the White House.  

Biden and Putin discussed the crisis as tensions continue to grow amid concerns that Russia is ready to mount an invasion of Ukraine. Russia continues to add to the more than 100,000 troops it has amassed at the Ukrainian border in recent months.

After the call, Yury Ushakov, the Kremlin’s top foreign policy adviser, said Biden had largely repeated ideas offered in January to address Russia’s security concerns.

“But unfortunately, and this was said, these considerations do not touch upon the central, key elements of Russian initiatives,” the Kremlin official said. He added that Russia would respond to those counterproposals soon. 

Ushakov said the call was “balanced and businesslike” and that the two leaders “agreed to continue contacts at all levels.” 

But he also took issue with U.S. statements that an invasion could come soon, saying: “Hysteria has reached its peak.” 

Washington has received intelligence reports that the invasion could happen as early as Wednesday.

The White House said Biden conducted the call from the presidential retreat at Camp David, Maryland, from 11:04 a.m. EST to 12:06 p.m. EST.

“President Biden was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our Allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia,” the White House statement said.

“President Biden was clear with President Putin that while the United States remains prepared to engage in diplomacy, in full coordination with our Allies and partners, we are equally prepared for other scenarios,” the statement added.

A senior U.S. administration official told reporters after the call there was “no change in the fundamental dynamic” of the crisis. The official said Biden again proposed diplomatic solutions and that the call ended without an indication of what Putin’s next move would be.

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has begun evacuating its staff. A U.S. State Department official told reporters Saturday that consular services at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine will be suspended beginning Sunday.

The official said Sunday is also when “American citizens will not be able to secure routine support with passport issues, visa services, any of the other routine consular services that we customarily provide from our embassies.”

The State Department previously issued an advisory warning people not to travel to Ukraine “due to the increased threats of Russian military action” and advised “those in Ukraine should depart immediately.”

A few U.S. diplomats are expected to be relocated to far western Ukraine, near Poland, a NATO ally, a move that would allow the U.S. to maintain a “diplomatic presence” in Ukraine.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Saturday that Moscow has decided to “optimize” its diplomatic staff numbers in Ukraine, citing fears of “possible provocations from the Kyiv regime.”

Zakharova did not describe the move in detail but said the embassy and consulates in Ukraine continued to perform key functions.

Before speaking with Biden, Putin had a telephone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, who met with him in Moscow earlier in the week. During the meeting, Putin said the accusations against Russia of an imminent invasion were “provocative speculation.”

Macron’s office said that he would also discuss the crisis Saturday with Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Also Saturday, Britain told its nationals to leave Ukraine, and Germany and the Netherlands told its citizens to leave as soon as possible.

Macron said he told the Russian leader that “sincere dialogue” is incompatible with escalating fears that Russia will invade Ukraine.

The two spoke for nearly two hours, Macron’s office said. It said Macron and Putin “both expressed a desire to continue dialogue” on how to “advance the Minsk accords” on the restive Donbas region as well as “security conditions and stability in Europe,” his office said, according to Agence France-Presse.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced in a statement on Saturday that he had ordered the temporary repositioning of the 160 members of the Florida National Guard who have been deployed to Ukraine since late November, according to a statement by Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.

“These troops, assigned to the 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, have been advising and mentoring Ukrainian forces as part of Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine,” the statement said. It added that the troops would be repositioned elsewhere in Europe.

“This repositioning does not signify a change in our determination to support Ukraine’s Armed Forces but will provide flexibility in assuring allies and deterring aggression,” the statement added.

Earlier Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, about what appears to be Russia’s imminent invasion of Ukraine.

“The Secretary made clear that a diplomatic path to resolving the crisis remained open, but it would require Moscow to de-escalate and engage in good-faith discussions,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement.

Blinken “reiterated that should Moscow pursue the path of aggression and further invade Ukraine, it would result in a resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic response,” the statement said.

Blinken, speaking at a press conference in Fiji, said if Putin “decides to take military action [against Ukraine] we will swiftly impose severe economic sanctions in coordination with allies and partners around the globe, will bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, we will reinforce our allies on the eastern flank. I’ll underscore this unity and result when I speak with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov later tonight.”

Blinken also spoke Saturday with U.K. Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss about the crisis. The U.S. State Department said in a statement that Blinken emphasized the importance of working with our NATO Allies and European partners in the region to impose swift, severe costs on Russia in response to any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine.”

The state also said they discussed continuing efforts to seek a diplomatic

Resolution to the crisis and that Blinken reassured the U.K. it will consult with allies and partners on any decisions the U.S. makes in Europe.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could begin “during the Olympics” or when Putin decides to order it.

Many analysts have said that Russia is unlikely to carry out any invasion before the Winter Olympics in China end February 20.

Russia now has enough forces on Ukraine’s border to conduct a major military operation, Sullivan said, and Russia could seize “significant territory” in Ukraine, including the capital, Kyiv, in an attack.

On Friday, Biden took part in a secure video call with world leaders to discuss Ukraine.

“The leaders agreed on the importance of coordinated efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine, including their readiness to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia should it choose military escalation,” according to a White House statement. In addition to Biden, the call included the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Britain, NATO, the European Union and the European Council.

A senior U.S. defense official told reporters that Biden has ordered an additional 3,000 soldiers to Poland in addition to the 1,700 already headed there. The Pentagon said the troops are being deployed to reassure NATO allies and deter any potential aggression against NATO’s eastern flank.

The Pentagon announced last week the deployment of the previous 1,700 troops to Poland along with 300 troops who were to be moved from the United States to Germany. It also announced at that time that 1,000 troops already based in Germany were to be redeployed to Romania.

Russian officials have denied they plan to invade Ukraine, but diplomatic talks with Western officials have led to a standoff. Russia has demanded that the United States and its allies reject Ukraine’s bid for membership in NATO.

The West has rejected that as a nonstarter but has said it is willing to negotiate with Moscow over missile deployment and troop exercises in Eastern European countries closest to Russia.

Western governments have been calling on Russia to take steps to de-escalate the crisis and have vowed to impose swift and severe economic sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine.

VOA State Department correspondent Cindy Saine, Carla Babb at the Pentagon and national security correspondent Jeff Seldin contributed to this report. Some information in this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
…

Waving flags and singing the national anthem, thousands of Ukrainians braved the winter cold to march across Kyiv on Saturday to show unity in the face of a feared Russian invasion.
“Panic is useless. We must unite and fight for independence,” said student Maria Shcherbenko, expressing a sentiment similar to that voiced by Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier in the day.

“I remain calm. I love Ukraine,” said Shcherbenko’s sign as the sun briefly peeked through the clouds on a cold and blustery day.

Some carried signs reading “war is not the answer,” while others held banners calling on the nation to “resist.”

Riven by an eight-year conflict that has claimed more than 14,000 lives across its Moscow-backed separatist east, Ukraine is now facing the threat of an all-out invasion by Russia.

The Kremlin has massed more than 100,000 troops around its western neighbor, staging war games across Belarus to its north and navy drills in the Black Sea to its south.

Washington has warned that war could break out any day. Western countries are pulling their diplomats out of Kyiv and ordering citizens to immediately get out of Ukraine.

Even Kyiv, despite calls for calm from Zelensky and a range of other leaders, has prepared a plan to evacuate the capital’s three million residents.

“We are here to show that we are not afraid,” said Nazar Novoselsky, who joined the march across Kyiv’s central avenues with his two little children.

“We will lay our soul and body for the cherished freedom,” the crowd sang—words from the national anthem—just as they had done en masse in the months leading to Ukraine’s 2014 pro-EU revolution.

After the 2014 revolt, the Kremlin annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula and backed an insurgency across parts of the former Soviet republic’s Russian-speaking industrial east.

Relations between Moscow and Kyiv have been severely strained ever since, with that tension showing in the crowd.

Many showed their support for NATO—the Western defense alliance at the heart of Russia’s dispute with the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants binding security guarantees that NATO will never expand into Ukraine, also demanding that it pull out of eastern European countries that were under the Kremlin’s influence during the Cold War.

But a pledge to join NATO is written into Ukraine’s new constitution, and Washington has rejected the Kremlin’s demands.

“Into NATO, immediately,” said one sign, held up by Oleksiy Tkachenko, a 70-year-old retiree.

“Why should Putin be telling us what to do,” Natalia Savostikova, a 67-year-old doctor, demanded.
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Turkey’s president announced on Saturday a 7 percentage-point reduction in taxes added to basic food supplies as the country faces rampant inflation.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the value-added tax would be lowered to 1% from 8% on food purchases. His decision would be published in the Official Gazette and go into effect Monday.

Erdogan said that, in addition to the tax discount, the government “expects” food companies to lower their prices by 7%. He said those foods play a significant part in inflation.

Official data for January showed inflation rose to a staggering 48.69% annually, though independent experts say it’s more than 115%.

“We will not let inflation crush our nation,” Erdogan said.

Critics, however, say the country is suffering from high inflation because of Erdogan’s insistence on lowering interest rates. He believes inflation is caused by high interest rates, in opposition to established economic theory.

The central bank, whose independence has been eroded by the government, had brought down the key policy rate by 500 points since September to 14 percent, but paused rate cuts in January. A currency crisis was triggered by the cuts and the Turkish lira hit record lows in December. Because Turkey relies on imports for its energy needs as well as raw materials and many food supplies, prices have skyrocketed.

The lira closed this week at 13.49 against the dollar. The record low in December was 18.36. 

Erdogan’s Minister of Treasury and Finance, Nureddin Nebati, also announced a step to encourage people to bring gold that they have been keeping “under the pillow.” He said 1,500 gold drop-off locations would begin operation on March 1 to integrate the precious metal into the financial system as deposits.

He added people would be able to withdraw their gold in physical form if they wished to.

 
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