Just in case any of the global central bankers and finance ministers gathered in Indonesia missed the message delivered repeatedly this week, the host nation said it again Friday: Everyone stands to lose if trade wars are allowed to escalate.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo didn’t mention the United States or China, the world’s two largest economies, but it was clear who he was talking about in an address to the plenary session of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings on the island of Bali.

“Lately it feels like the relations among the major economies are becoming more and more like Game of Thrones,” Widodo said in a speech peppered with references to the HBO series about dynasties and kingdoms battling for power.

“Are we so busy fighting with each other and competing against each other that we fail to notice the things which are increasingly threatening, all of us alike, rich and poor, large and small,” he said.

Poorer and populous emerging market countries like his are among the most vulnerable to the fallout from the ongoing U.S.-Sino tariff war, and rising U.S. interest rates that are drawing investors away and driving down currencies.

“All these troubles in the world economy, are enough to make us feel like saying: ‘Winter is coming,'” Widodo said, using a phrase that characters in the popular fantasy series constantly repeat to refer to spectral dangers that could destroy them all.

With rivalry growing in the world economy, Widodo said “the situation could be more critical compared to the global financial crisis 10 years ago.”

The market ructions have now cascaded through to developed markets with Wall Street extending a slide into a sixth session on Thursday amid the trade war fears.

The United States and China have slapped tit-for-tat tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of each other’s goods over the past few months.

The tariffs stem from the Trump administration’s demands that China make sweeping changes to its intellectual property practices, rein in high-technology industrial subsidies, open its markets to more foreign competition and take steps to cut a politically sensitive U.S. goods trade surplus.

Rubbing salt in U.S. wounds, China reported on Friday an unexpected acceleration in export growth in September and a record $34.13 billion trade surplus with the United States.

Mnuchin: China trade talks must include yuan

In an interview with Reuters, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he told China’s central bank chief that currency issues need to be part of any further U.S.-China trade talks and expressed his concerns about the yuan’s recent weakness.

Mnuchin also said that China needs to identify concrete “action items” to rebalance the two countries’ trade relationship before talks to resolve their disputes can resume.

The U.S. Treasury chief and People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang extensively discussed currency issues on the sidelines of the meetings in Bali.

Mnuchin’s comments on China’s currency come ahead of next week’s scheduled release of a hotly anticipated Treasury report on currency manipulation, the first since a significant weakening of yuan began this spring.

Mnuchin said re-launching trade talks would require China to commit to taking action on structural reforms to its economy.

If the relationship could be rebalanced, he said the U.S.-China total annual trade relationship could grow to $1 trillion from $650 billion currently, with $500 billion of exports from each country.

G-20 members and trade issues

Meanwhile, the chairman of a meeting of finance leaders from the Group of 20 leading industrialized and emerging economies admitted that the trade tensions within the group could only be solved by the countries directly involved.

“The G-20 can play a role in providing the platform for discussions. But the differences that still persist should be resolved by the members that are directly involved in the tensions,” Nicolas Dujovne, Argentina’s Treasury Minister, told a news conference after chairing the G-20 meeting in Bali.

More than 19,000 delegates and other guests, including ministers, central bank heads and some leaders, were attending the IMF-World Bank meetings, and Widodo asked them to “cushion the blows from trade wars, technical disruption and market turmoil.”

“I hope you will each do your part to nudge our various leaders in the right direction,” Widodo said, adding that “confrontation and collision impose a tragic price.”

The IMF’s twice-yearly report on the Asia Pacific region, released Thursday, warned that the market rout seen in emerging economies could worsen if the Federal Reserve and other major central banks tightened monetary policy more quickly than expected.

At Friday’s plenary, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde estimated that the escalation of current trade tensions could reduce global GDP by almost one percent over the next two years.

IMF forecasts of global economic growth for both 2018 and 2019 were cut to 3.7 percent, from 3.9 percent in its July forecast.

“Clearly, we need to de-escalate these disputes,” Lagarde told the plenary session.
…

Elon Musk replied with a tweet saying “This is incorrect” after the Financial

Times reported that outgoing Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. Chief Executive James Murdoch was the lead candidate to replace him as Tesla Inc. chairman.

Tesla has until Nov. 13 to appoint an independent chairman of the board, part of settlements reached last month between Tesla, Musk and U.S. regulators after Musk tweeted in August that he had secured funding to take the electric car maker private.

The SEC settlement capped months of debate and some investor calls for stronger oversight of Musk, whose recent erratic public behavior raised concerns about his ability to steer the money-losing company through a rocky phase of growth.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which said Musk’s tweeted statements about going private were fraudulent, allowed the billionaire to retain his role as CEO while requiring he give up his chairmanship.

Musk had said he was considering taking Tesla private at a price of $420 a share, a number that is slang for marijuana. He tweeted the three-word denial of the Financial Times story on Wednesday at 4:20 pm PDT (2320 GMT), about six hours after the newspaper’s post.

In a vote of confidence for Musk, shareholder T. Rowe Price Group Inc. said in a regulatory filing on Wednesday that it had raised its stake to 10.2 percent at the end of September from just under 7 percent in June.

The Financial Times cited two people briefed on discussions saying Murdoch was the lead candidate for the job. Murdoch, already an independent director of Tesla, has signaled he wants the job, the report said.

The son of Fox mogul Rupert Murdoch, he joined Tesla’s board last year after years of work with media companies. He has no experience in manufacturing and has never led a company that makes cars or electric vehicles.

Murdoch could not immediately be reached for comment. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment. Twenty-First Century Fox declined to comment.

​Board roles

Musk is the public face of Tesla, and any chairman would have to contend with his powerful personality. Thanks to his vision and audacious showmanship, Tesla’s valuation has at times eclipsed that of established U.S. automakers with billions in revenues, and the company has garnered legions of fans, despite repeated production issues.

“The question when it comes to James Murdoch is, ‘Is he the guy who’ll be able to establish that level of authority with Elon Musk?’ ” asked Abby Adlerman, CEO of Boardspan, a corporate governance consulting company.

Murdoch, who at 45 is a near contemporary of 47-year-old Musk, recently navigated a takeover battle between Fox and Comcast Corp. to buy European pay-TV company Sky, which he also chaired.

His record in ensuring Sky’s independent shareholders were represented throughout was exemplary, media analyst Alice Enders said.

“His experience is very recent and very relevant,” she said.

Investor concerns that Tesla’s board was too closely tied to Musk led to the company’s addition of two independent directors, including Murdoch, in July 2017.

Earlier this year, leading U.S. proxy advisers Glass Lewis & Co. and Institutional Shareholder Services and union-affiliated investment adviser CtW Investment Group had recommended investors cast votes “against” the re-election of Murdoch as a Tesla director at the company’s annual meeting held on June 5.

While CtW cited a lack of relevant experience and a “troubled history as an executive and director,” both proxy firms warned that Murdoch already served on too many boards.

Murdoch currently serves on the boards of Twenty-First Century Fox and News Corp. He stepped down from Sky Plc on Tuesday following the completion of Comcast’s takeover of the broadcaster.

He was appointed chief executive of Sky, founded by his father, in 2003, becoming the youngest CEO of a FTSE 100 company.

“Under his leadership, Sky went down the technology route,” Enders said. “It’s no accident he oversaw that strategy, which was really distinct from the strategy other pay-TV companies followed, and in my view was his most valuable contribution.”

Murdoch replaced his father as chairman of Sky in 2007, but was forced out in 2012 after being embroiled in Britain’s phone-hacking scandal. He returned to Sky’s board in 2016 after rebuilding his career at Fox.
…

Parties to a new global treaty to combat the illicit sale of tobacco products have taken the first steps toward cracking down on this multi-billion dollar trade.  At a three-day meeting at the headquarters of the World Health Organization in Geneva they have outlined a plan to shut down the lucrative black market trade in tobacco.

A global tobacco treaty (Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products) entered into force on September 25, with 48 countries joining the new protocol, which is part of the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC).  Two-thirds of the parties have enacted or strengthened national legislation aimed at tackling illicit trade in tobacco products.

Parties attending the meeting have set up a working group to create a monitoring system to track and trace the movement of tobacco products. They hope this global information sharing system will be up and running by 2023.  

Head of the FCTC Secretariat, Vera da Costa e Silva, says illicit trade accounts for one in 10 cigarettes consumed.  She says these cigarettes are low-priced and more affordable for young people and vulnerable populations.  She says this results in increased consumption of the toxic product by these groups.

She told VOA the black market in tobacco thrives in both rich and poor countries, but it is a much bigger problem in developing countries.

“In the streets of developing countries, you can see all over the world sales of illicit trade of tobacco products.  They are openly in their markets…. When it comes to the distribution, this is linked to street sales, to bootlegging as well through borders and even to sales to and by minors.  That is a real problem of illicit trade in tobacco products,” she said.

Da Costa e Silva said this flourishing illegal trade undermines tobacco control policies and public health.  She said it also fuels organized crime and increases tobacco profits through tax evasion, resulting in substantial losses in governments’ revenues.   

She said studies show governments lose $31 billion in taxes annually from the illegal trafficking in tobacco products.  

The World Health Organization reports seven million people die prematurely every year from tobacco-related causes.

 
…

One of Donald Trump’s top economic advisers says the president is not trying to improperly influence the U.S. central bank.

The director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, spoke to the television network CNBC a day after Trump said the U.S. Federal Reserve is “loco” (crazy) for raising interest rates. On Thursday, Trump continued his attacks on the central bank, calling the Fed “out of control,” but denied he has plans to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell. 

Kudlow said, “We all know the Fed is independent. The president is not dictating policy to the Fed.”  

The Federal Reserve slashed the benchmark interest rate nearly to zero in an emergency, temporary effort to boost economic growth hurt by a severe recession 10 years ago. Since then, the economy has stopped shrinking and resumed growth, unemployment has fallen to historic lows, and wages and inflation have begun to rise modestly.  

Low interest rates boost growth by making it cheaper for businesses and families to borrow money to build factories or buy homes.  Economists warn that keeping interest rates too low for too long could spark strong inflation that pushes up prices and wages so sharply that they damage the economy.  

To fend off inflation, the Fed has been slowly raising rates a quarter of a percentage point at a time. They are expected to continue this effort to gradually return rates to their historic averages.

A common conflict grows out of the fact that incumbent elected politicians get the blame if the economy is not growing strongly. That gives presidents and others a political incentive to keep interest rates low, regardless of the consequences.  

That is why central banks in the United States and elsewhere are often set up to be insulated from political pressure — so they can make decisions based on economic merit rather than potential popularity.

When the independence of a central bank is seriously questioned, markets and currencies can fall, because investors lose confidence in the economic management of a nation.

U.S. stock markets fell sharply again Wednesday with the benchmark Dow Jones industrial average off nearly 550 points, a drop of more than 2 percent.

This was the second sharp loss for U.S. stocks in as many days, with a total loss for the Dow at more than 1,300 points. Many key European and Asian stock indexes also declined. 
…

More than half of the world’s population lives in cities, according to United Nations figures.  By the middle of this century, 68 percent of the world will be urbanized, adding 2½ billion people to global cities.  The growth will bring problems, including lack of housing, and,  as Mike O’Sullivan reports, some ballooning urban regions already face a housing crisis.
…

The trade war between the United States and China has made for a nerve-wracking summer of uncertainty in Wisconsin, where manufacturing has long been in decline yet remains a vital part of the state’s economy.

At Johnson Level and Tool in suburban Milwaukee, the Trump administration’s thrust-and-parry trade moves with China and other countries have left the company bracing for up to $3.7 million in extra costs annually because of higher tariffs on imports, including some of its levels that are made in China.

The company has a range of options to try to blunt its higher costs — from raising prices on the levels it sells to big box stores to potentially moving some of its manufacturing now done in China to another country to avoid tariffs.

But as companies across America struggle to adapt to the higher prices from import taxes, the options that officials at Johnson Level and Tool face underscore there are no easy answers — and no surefire way to avoid paying more for indispensable imports. As Trump’s tariffs on countless U.S. imports take root, some of the largest U.S. corporations have warned that higher prices are coming.   

For many such companies, a key internal question is whether to absorb the higher costs themselves, at least temporarily, to avoid losing customers — or raise prices immediately. Johnson Level has chosen to raise its prices for the stores that buy its products by 8 percent to 10 percent to match its higher costs imposed by the tariffs.

Levels are a basic tool essential for things like getting doorways square and hanging pictures straight. Though Johnson manufactures some of its levels in Mequon, it imports others that are cheaper to make in China because their tooling machines cost just one-tenth what they do in the U.S., said Paul Buzzell, the company’s chief financial officer. About half of the levels the company sells are imported from China.

The uncertainty over how long the tariffs will remain in place has made it harder to find a solution, Buzzell said. He said he always assumed that if the U.S. increased tariffs, it would give businesses a year or two to prepare by making adjustments with their suppliers.

That was the assumption, he said, when the company “started investing in our suppliers and relationships in China.”

“We have this uncertainty, and almost overnight our business really has changed and so the competitive landscape is different,” Buzzell said.

The first tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum in June didn’t affect Johnson Level; the company doesn’t import those raw materials. But in July, a second round of tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports covering hundreds of items, including all the levels and laser levels the company imports, meaning they were now paying 25 percent more for those.

Despite its decline over the years, manufacturing still plays a central role in Wisconsin’s economy, making the survival of companies like Johnson Level essential to the state.

About 16 percent of Wisconsin’s workforce is in manufacturing — second only to Indiana, according to the National Association of Manufacturers . And global trade — whether involving manufacturing, farming or other industries — supports about 800,000 jobs in the state, according to the advocacy group U.S. Chamber of Commerce . That’s roughly a quarter of the state’s total workforce.

In business since 1947, Johnson Level and Tool sells levels and measuring tools to stores nationwide, including Home Depot, Menards, Lowe’s and Ace Hardware.  

Buzzell said some of his customers, whom he declined to name, have already balked at suggested price increases. One business customer that he said accounted for about $2 million in Johnson’s annual sales found another supplier shortly after Johnson raised its prices, Buzzell said.

Margaret Smith, a spokeswoman for Home Depot, said the company works “with suppliers to mitigate impact on customers.” She said she couldn’t elaborate.

Buzzell said the company, which employs about 100 people, has no plans to reduce staff. He wouldn’t disclose Johnson Level’s annual revenue, saying only that it’s under $50 million. Buzzell said one option likeliest to succeed — but also the costliest — would be for the company to find another country not subject to tariffs that can manufacture what it needs. Johnson Level has discussed that possibility, including making in the U.S. what it now imports from China, but it would entail a complex and time-consuming process.

‘Uncertainty’ reigns

“This is a classic example of uncertainty,” Buzzell said. “We’re questioning, should we treat these tariffs as a long-term thing that’s never going away.”

On the other hand, he said, the company must make pivotal decisions even knowing that the Trump administration could rescind its tariff increases at any time.

“You don’t really know what to do,” Buzzell said.

The uncertainty over how long the tariffs will stay is making decisions difficult for other companies that import products from China as well.

“The big question is, nobody knows how long they’ll be in place, so it’s hard making changes,” Austin Ramirez, the CEO of Husco International, said in an interview.

The Wisconsin-based Husco makes hydraulic and electro-mechanical components for cars and uses machines and metal from China.

“This is costing us a fortune,” Ramirez told U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson at a meeting with business leaders in July. Ramirez said the company was incurring about a million dollars a month more in expenses because of the Trump tariffs. Husco International makes roughly a half-billion in total revenue, Ramirez said.   

Husco International does about half its business overseas, with plants in Asia and Europe. The company also has about 100 manufacturing jobs in the U.S. for exports to other countries, but retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports means those jobs could move elsewhere, Ramirez said.

“Those jobs are at risk because I can move them to overseas plants that aren’t subject to these tariffs,” Ramirez told Johnson.

At Regal Ware, a company that makes pots, frying pans and cast aluminum cookware, $2 million in profits could vanish if tariffs remain in place this year, said Doug Reigl, a vice president at the Wisconsin-based company.

Reigl said the company will consider moving production overseas “or look for ways to take costs out of operations here in the U.S.” if the tariffs stay.  

While layoffs may not be imminent at manufacturing companies, hiring could face a slowdown, said Dr. Joseph Daniels, chairman of the economics department at Marquette University.

“I would say what’s at risk is actually job creation,” Daniels said.

That’s a concern Buzzell shares.

“It’s not going to shut us down,” he said of the tariffs. “But what it does, it theoretically takes away money to invest in long-term projects.”

 
…

The heads of the World Bank and IMF appealed Thursday to the U.S. and China to cool their dispute over technology policy and play by world trade rules, as tumbling share prices drove home potential perils from a clash between the world’s two biggest economies.

Global economic growth is slowing but remains strong, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank annual meeting, being held this week on the Indonesian island of Bali.

Countries are mostly in a “strong position,” she said, “which is why we believe we are not seeing what is referred to as ‘contagion.”‘

But the gyrations that rocked Wall Street the day before and Asia and Europe on Thursday, taking the Shanghai Composite index down 5.2 percent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 nearly 4 percent, do partly reflect rising interest rates in the U.S. and some other countries and growing uncertainty over trade, she said.

“It’s the combination of the two that is probably showing some of the tensions that we see in terms of indices, short-term indicators as well as possibly market volatility,” Lagarde said.

The U.S. and Chinese exchanges of penalty tariffs in their dispute isn’t helping, she said.

Her advice was threefold: “De-escalate. Fix the system. Don’t break it.”

She acknowledged that the World Trade Organization, based in Geneva, has made scant headway in recent years toward a global agreement on trade rules that can address issues like complaints over Chinese policies that U.S. President Donald Trump says unfairly extract advanced technologies and put foreign companies at a disadvantage in a quest to dominate certain industries.

“Our strong recommendation is to escalate work for a world trade system that is stronger, that is fairer and is fit for the purpose,” she said in opening remarks. 

‘More trade not less’

Somewhat obliquely, she said policies aimed toward an excessively “dominant position” were not compatible with free and fair trade.

The IMF has downgraded its forecast for global economic growth to 3.7 percent this year from its earlier estimate of 3.9 percent. It also issued reports this week on government finance and financial stability that warn of the risks of disruptions to world trade.

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said the World Bank is working with developing countries to brace for a further deterioration.

“Trade is very critical because that is what has lifted people out of extreme poverty,” Kim said. “I am a globalist. That is my job. That is our only chance of ending extreme poverty. We need more trade not less trade,” he said.

Kim said the World Bank has launched a “human capital index” to help rank countries by the level of their investments in such areas as education and health care.

Policies to build such human capital are among the “smartest investments countries can make,” he said.

He praised host country Indonesia, a democratic, Muslim-majority country of 260 million, for fostering strong growth but noted there was much room for improvement. The country is ranked 87th of 150 countries in the list.

Indonesia has endured a slew of disasters in recent months. Before dawn on Thursday, an earthquake collapsed homes on Indonesia’s Java island, killing at least three people just two weeks after a major quake and tsunami disaster in a central region of the archipelago killed more than 2,000 people and left perhaps thousands more buried deeply in mud.

Thursday’s magnitude 6.0 quake offshore north of Bali shook the area where the IMF-World Bank delegates are meeting, but there were no signs of significant damage.

The annual financial meetings take place at a time of growing concern over trends other than trade, such as moves to raise borrowing costs in the U.S. and some other regions to help cool growth and keep inflation in check. Rising interest rates are drawing investment flows out of emerging markets in Asia and Latin America at a time when growth in their exports is likely to slow.

Rising debts

Argentina and Pakistan, Venezuela and Zimbabwe are among countries grappling with crises. Concerns are growing, also, over slowing growth in China and rising debts among some developing countries resulting from projects associated with Beijing’s “Belt and Road Initiative” to develop ports, roads and other infrastructure. 

Lagarde said the IMF will send a team to Pakistan in the coming weeks after a meeting with its finance minister, Asad Umar, in which he requested emergency bailout loans.

The IMF chief did not say how much Umar had requested. Analysts say Pakistan is seeking $8 billion in loans to deal with a balance of payments crisis. Pakistan’s currency plunged by around 7 percent earlier this week after word of the loan request was made public.

Asked whether IMF help might amount to a “bailout” for Chinese loans, Lagarde said any such help would have to be completely transparent.

“In whatever work we do we need a complete understanding and complete transparency about the nature of a debt that is bearing on a country,” she said.

The annual summit for global finance brings together central bankers and finance ministers, development experts and civil society groups from across the globe.

Bali has suffered terrorist bombings in the past, and the event was being held amid tight security. A convoy of armed personnel carriers was lined up alongside a beach path and access to the area was tightly controlled. 

Still, about a dozen activists concerned with land grabs and other issues sometimes associated with World Bank-sponsored projects staged a brief, peaceful protest over the cancellation by local authorities of a conference they were to hold in the nearby city of Denpasar.

“If they don’t want to ever hear our voices, what kinds of projects are we expecting?” said Joan Salvador, a member of a Philippine women’s group.

Those involved had badges allowing them to enter the tightly guarded venue, and an IMF official said she would convey their concerns “to the highest levels.”
…

U.S. stocks posted their worst loss since February on Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average finishing the day down more than 800 points.

The losses were widespread as bond yields remained high after steep increases last week. Companies that have been the biggest winners on the market the last few years, including technology companies and retailers, suffered steep declines.

The Dow gave up nearly 828 points, or 3.15 percent, to 25,600. The Nasdaq composite, which has a high concentration of technology stocks, tumbled 316 points, or 4.1 percent, to 7,422.

The S&P 500 index sank 95 points, or 3.3 percent, to 2,786, its fifth straight drop. That hasn’t happened since right before the 2016 presidential election. Every one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished down for the day.

Microsoft dropped 5.4 percent to $106.16. Amazon skidded 6.2 percent to $1,755.25. Industrial and internet companies also fell hard. Boeing lost 4.7 percent to $367.47 and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, gave up 5 percent to $1,081.22.

After a long stretch of relative calm, the stock market has suffered sharp losses over the last week as bond yields surged.

Squeezed margins

Gina Martin Adams, the chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, said investors are concerned about the big increase in yields, which makes it more expensive to borrow money. She said they also fear that company profit margins will be squeezed by rising costs, including the price of oil.

Paint and coatings maker PPG gave a weak third-quarter forecast Monday, while earlier, Pepsi and Conagra’s quarterly reports reflected increased expenses.

“Both companies highlighted rising costs, not only input costs but increasing operating expenses [and] marketing expenses,” she said.

Insurance companies dropped as Hurricane Michael continued to gather strength and came ashore in Florida bringing winds of up to 155 mph. Berkshire Hathaway dipped 4.8 percent to $213.10 and reinsurer Everest Re slid 5.1 percent to $217.73.

Luxury retailers tumbled. Tiffany plunged 10.2 percent to $110.38 and Ralph Lauren fell 8.4 percent to $116.96.

The biggest driver for the market over the last week has been interest rates, which began spurting higher following several encouraging reports on the economy. Higher rates can slow economic growth, erode corporate profits and make investors less willing to pay high prices for stocks. 

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.22 percent from 3.20 percent late Tuesday after earlier touching 3.24 percent. It was at just 3.05 percent early last week.

Technology and internet-based companies are known for their high profit margins, and many have reported explosive growth in recent years, with corresponding gains in their stock prices. Adams, of Bloomberg Intelligence, said investors have concerns about their future profitability, too.

That’s helped make technology stocks more volatile in the last few months.

“As stocks go up, tech goes up more than the stock market. As stocks go down, tech goes down more than the stock market,” she said.
…

The Trump administration is moving to allow year-round sales of gasoline with higher blends of ethanol, a boon for Iowa and other farm states that have pushed for greater sales of the corn-based fuel.

President Donald Trump was expected to announce he will lift a federal ban on summer sales of high-ethanol blends during a trip to Iowa on Tuesday.

“It’s an amazing substance. You look at the Indy cars. They run 100 percent on ethanol,” Trump said at the White House before he left for Iowa.

He said he wanted more industry and more energy and he wanted to help farmers and refiners.

‘I want low prices’

“I want more because I don’t like $74,” Trump said referring to the current price of a barrel of crude oil. “It’s up to $74. And if I have to do more — whether it’s through ethanol or another means — that’s what I want. I want low prices.”

The long-expected announcement is something of a reward to Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, who as Senate Judiciary Committee chairman led a contentious but successful fight to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. The veteran Republican lawmaker is the Senate’s leading ethanol proponent and sharply criticized the Trump administration’s proposed rollback in ethanol volumes earlier this year.

At that time Grassley threatened to call for the resignation of the Environmental Protection Agency’s chief, Scott Pruitt, if Pruitt did not work to fulfill the federal ethanol mandate. Pruitt later stepped down amid a host of ethics investigations.

A senior administration official said Monday that the EPA would publish a rule in coming days to allow high-ethanol blends as part of a package of proposed changes to the ethanol mandate. The official spoke on condition of anonymity ahead of Trump’s announcement.

The change would allow year-round sales of gasoline blends with up to 15 percent ethanol. Gasoline typically contains 10 percent ethanol.

The EPA currently bans the high-ethanol blend, called E15, during the summer because of concerns that it contributes to smog on hot days, a claim ethanol industry advocates say is unfounded.

In May, Republican senators, including Grassley, announced a tentative agreement with the White House to allow year-round E15 sales, but the EPA did not propose a formal rule change.

The senior administration official said the proposed rule intends to allow E15 sales next summer. Current regulations prevent retailers in much of the country from offering E15 from June 1 to Sept. 15.

Lifting the summer ban is expected to be coupled with new restrictions on trading biofuel credits that underpin the federal Renewable Fuel Standard, commonly known as the ethanol mandate. The law sets out how much corn-based ethanol and other renewable fuels refiners must blend into gasoline each year.

Production misses mark

The Renewable Fuel Standard was intended to address global warming, reduce dependence on foreign oil and bolster the rural economy by requiring a steady increase in renewable fuels over time. The mandate has not worked as intended, and production levels of renewable fuels, mostly ethanol, routinely fail to reach minimum thresholds set in law.

The oil industry opposes year-round sales of E15, warning that high-ethanol gasoline can damage car engines and fuel systems. Some carmakers have warned against high-ethanol blends, though EPA has approved use of E15 in all light-duty vehicles built since 2001.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers, many from oil-producing states, sent Trump a letter last week opposing expanded sales of high-ethanol gas. The lawmakers called the approach “misguided” and said it would do nothing to protect refinery jobs and “could hurt millions of consumers whose vehicles and equipment are not compatible with higher-ethanol blended gasoline.”

The letter was signed by 16 Republicans and four Democrats, including Texas Sen. John Cornyn, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, and Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch, a key Trump ally. New Jersey Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, whose state includes several refineries, also signed the letter.

A spokeswoman for the Renewable Fuels Association, an ethanol industry trade group, said allowing E15 to be sold year-round would give consumers greater access to clean, low-cost, higher-octane fuel while expanding market access for ethanol producers.

“The ability to sell E15 all year would also bring a significant boost to farmers across our country” and provide a significant economic boost to rural America, said spokeswoman Rachel Gantz.
…

Sales of U.S. military equipment to foreign governments rose 33 percent to $55.6 billion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, a U.S. administration official told Reuters on Tuesday.

The increase in foreign military sales came in part because the Trump administration rolled out a new “Buy American” plan in April that loosened restrictions on sales while encouraging U.S. officials to take a bigger role in increasing business overseas for the U.S. weapons industry.

There are two major ways foreign governments purchase arms from U.S. companies: Direct commercial sales, negotiated between a government and a company; and foreign military sales, where a foreign government typically contacts a Department of Defense official at the U.S. embassy in their capital. Both require approval by the U.S. government.

About $70 billion worth of foreign military sales notifications went to Congress this year, slightly less than the year before, the administration official said.

The $55.6 billion figure represents signed letters of agreement for foreign military sales between the United States and allies.

The largest U.S. arms contractors include Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman.
…

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday again criticized the Federal Reserve, telling reporters the central bank was going too fast in raising rates when inflation is minimal and government data point to a strong economy.

“Well, I like to see low interest rates. The Fed is doing what it thinks is necessary, but I don’t like what they’re doing because we have inflation really checked, and we have a lot of good things happening,” Trump said to reporters on the White House lawn before departing for an Iowa event. “I just don’t think it’s necessary to go as fast.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve last raised interest rates in September and left intact its plans to steadily tighten monetary policy, as it forecast that the U.S. economy would enjoy at least three more years of economic growth.

The Federal Reserve is mandated by Congress to aim for low inflation and low unemployment. Currently, U.S. consumer price inflation is above 2 percent annually and the unemployment rate is the lowest in about 40 years.

“Also, very importantly I think, the numbers we’re producing are record-setting,” Trump added. “I don’t want to slow it down, even a little bit, especially when you don’t have the problem of inflation. And you don’t see that inflation coming back. Now, at some point it will and you go up.”

Trump has publicly stated his concerns before, but on Tuesday said he had not discussed them personally with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, explaining that “I like to stay uninvolved.”
…

Facebook on Tuesday hosted its first global summit spotlighting a growing Workplace platform launched two years ago as a private social network for businesses.

While Facebook would not disclose exact figures, it said Workplace – a rival to collaboration services like Slack, Salesforce, and Microsoft – has been a hit and that ranks of users have doubled in the past eight to 10 months.

The list of companies using Workplace included Walmart, Starbucks, Spotify, Delta, and Virgin Atlantic.

“It is growing very fast,” Workplace by Facebook vice president Julien Codorniou told AFP.

“We started with big companies, because that is where we found traction. It is a very good niche.”

Workplace is a separate operation from Facebook’s main social network and is intended as a platform to connect everyone in a company, from counter or warehouse workers to chief executives, according to Codorniou.

Workplace claimed that a differentiator from its competitors is that it connects all employees in businesses no matter their roles, even if their only computing device is a smartphone.

“That really resonates with a new generation,” Codorniou said of Workplace’s “democratic” nature.

“Millennials want to know who they work for and understand the culture of the company.”

He cited cases of top company executives using Workplace to get feedback from workers at all levels, bringing a small company feel to big operations.

Workplace is rolled out to everyone in companies, which then pay $3 monthly for each active user.

No ‘Candy Crush’

The software-as-a-service business began as an internal collaboration platform used at Facebook and was launched as its own business in 2016.

Workplace is used by 30,000 companies and has its main office in London, according to Codorniou.

Interaction with the platform plays off how people use Facebook, and Workplace adopts innovations from the leading social network. But, it is billed as a completely separate product.

“This is coming from Facebook Inc., but has nothing to do with Facebook,” he said.

“You cannot play ‘Candy Crush’ on Workplace, but people ask. We just take what makes sense.”

The conference was used to announce new Workplace features including a version of Facebook safety check designed as a way for companies to quickly determine the status and well-being of workers in event of disaster or tragedy.

Workplace also introduced the ability to have group voice or video chats with people routinely worked with outside a company.
…

Drink companies Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Nestle were found to be the world’s biggest producers of plastic trash, a report by environmental group Greenpeace said on Tuesday.

Working with the Break Free From Plastic movement, Greenpeace said it orchestrated 239 plastic clean-ups in 42 countries around the world, which resulted in the audit of 187,000 pieces of plastic trash. The aim was to get a picture of how large corporations contribute to the problem of pollution.

Coca-Cola, the world’s largest soft drink maker, was the top waste producer, Greenpeace said, with Coke-branded plastic trash found in 40 of the 42 countries.

“These brand audits offer undeniable proof of the role that corporations play in perpetuating the global plastic pollution crisis,” said Von Hernandez, global coordinator for Break Free From Plastic.

Overall, the most common type of plastic found was polystyrene, which goes into packaging and foam coffee cups, followed closely by PET, used in bottles and containers.

“We share Greenpeace’s goal of eliminating waste from the ocean and are prepared to do our part to help address this important challenge,” a Coke spokesman said in a statement. The company has pledged to collect and recycle a bottle or can for every one it sells by 2030.

All three companies have made pledges about their packaging for 2025. Coke says all its packaging will be recyclable, Nestle says it will be recyclable or reusable and PepsiCo says it will be recyclable, compostable or biodegradable.

They are all also working to use recycled content in their packaging.

Nestle, the world’s largest food and drink maker, said it recognized the issue and is working hard to eliminate non-recyclable plastics. It said it was also exploring different packaging solutions and ways to facilitate recycling and eliminate plastic waste.

PepsiCo was not immediately available to comment outside regular U.S. business hours. 
…

Nigeria, Singapore and India are among countries fueling the gap between the super-rich and poor, aid agency Oxfam said Tuesday as it launched an index spotlighting those nations doing the least to bridge the divide.

South Korea, Georgia and Indonesia were among countries praised for trying to reduce inequality, through policies on social spending, tax and labor rights.

Oxfam said inequality had reached crisis levels, with the richest 1 percent of the global population nabbing four-fifths of wealth created between mid-2016 and mid-2017, while the poorest half saw no increase in wealth.

The index of 157 countries is being released as finance ministers and central bank chiefs gather in Bali for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings.

Nigeria, where 10 percent of children die before their fifth birthday, came in last due to “shamefully low” social spending, poor tax collection and rising labor rights violations, Oxfam said.

It said tackling inequality did not depend on a country’s wealth, but on political will.

Singapore, one of the world’s richest countries, came in the bottom 10, partly because of practices which facilitate tax dodging, Oxfam said. The city state, which has no universal minimum wage, also did poorly on labor rights.

South Korea, 56 on the list, was praised for bumping its minimum wage up by 16.4 percent last year, and Georgia (49) for boosting education spending by nearly 6 percent — more than any other country.

Denmark’s track record on progressive taxation, social spending and worker protections earned it the top spot, but Oxfam warned that recent administrations had eroded good policies and inequality had risen.

China (81) ranked way ahead of India (147), devoting more than twice as much of its budget to health and almost four times as much to welfare spending, the agency said.

Oxfam warned that world leaders risked failing on their pledge to reduce inequality by 2030 and urged them to develop plans to close the gap which should be funded by progressive taxation and clamping down on tax dodging.

“We see children dying from preventable diseases because of a lack of health-care funding while rich corporations and individuals dodge billions of dollars in tax,” Oxfam boss Winnie Byanyima said. “Governments often tell us they are committed to fighting poverty and inequality — this index shows whether their actions live up to their promises.”

The index, which included an indicator on violence against women, said less than half of countries had adequate laws on sexual harassment and rape.
…

U.S. President Donald Trump’s golf courses in Scotland lost more than $6 million in 2017.

A report released Monday said the Trump International Golf Links near Aberdeen lost $1.7 million, slightly lower than the $1.8 million lost in 2016.

His flagship Trump Turnberry resort along the Irish Sea posted a loss of nearly $4.5 million last year, substantially less than the $23.3 million loss posted in 2016. The resort has lost more than $43 million since Trump bought it in 2014.

Trump’s son Eric said in a letter that the 2017 losses at Aberdeen could be attributed to a “crash in the oil price and economic downturn experienced in the northeast of Scotland.”

He pointed to Turnberry as a success story following a major redevelopment there after the 2016 losses. He praised the 2017 number as “one of the most robust financial results in years.”

Trump visited the Turnberry resort in July, costing the U.S. government some $68,800, The Scotsman newspaper reported at the time. It said the State Department paid the resort for the rooms used by Trump and his staff, who stayed there from Friday night to Sunday afternoon.

The Trump organization at the time did not dispute the charges but clarified that the U.S. government was charged at cost and that the resort did not profit from the visit.
…

Pakistan’s new government will open talks with the International Monetary Fund for emergency financial assistance to ease a mounting balance of payments crisis, the finance ministry said Monday.

New Prime Minister Imran Khan spent nearly two months since taking office looking for alternatives to a second IMF bailout in five years, which would likely impose tough conditions on government policy that would limit his vision of an Islamic welfare state.

But on Monday, he decided his finance minister should meet with officials at this week’s annual conference of the IMF and the World Bank in Bali, Indonesia, to discuss a potential package, the finance ministry said in a statement.

“Today, it was decided that we should start talks with IMF,” Finance Minister Asad Umar told GEO TV in an interview Monday night.

The finance ministry did not specify how much in emergency financing the government would seek, but Umar earlier said the government would need at least $8 billion to cover its external debt payments through the end of the year.

Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves dropped in late September to $8.4 billion, barely enough for those debt payments.

The new government blames the previous administration for the country’s economic woes.

‘About time’

Khan’s decision came after the Pakistani stock markets tumbled by 3.4 percent Monday after Khan said the day before that he was still exploring options outside the IMF.

Khan’s government had been seeking economic lifelines from its allies, including new bridge loans from China and a deferred payments scheme for oil with Saudi Arabia, but there were no large-scale deals.

Pakistan’s current account deficit widened 43 percent to $18 billion in the fiscal year that ended June 30, while the fiscal deficit has ballooned to 6.6 percent of gross domestic product.

The rupee has fallen by more than 20 percent in four devaluations since December. On Monday, the currency was trading at 128 per U.S. dollar on the open market and 124.20 in the official interbank rate.

Monday’s news was welcomed by brokers as a clear signal that could help steady markets tired of nearly two months’ of uncertainty since Khan’s government took office.

“It was much needed and about time,” said Saad Hashemy, research director for Pakistani brokerage Topline Securities. “Now what remains to be seen is the amount of funds and the associated to-do list,” he added. “That is, how much more currency devaluation, extent of further interest rate hikes, energy tariff hike, taxation measures etc.”

As the world’s lender of last resort for governments, the IMF typically sets such conditions on its assistance.

If a package is agreed on, it would be Pakistan’s 13th IMF bailout since the late 1980s.

“The challenge for the current government is to ensure that fundamental economic structural reforms are carried out to ensure that this spiral of being in an IMF program every few years is broken once and for all,” the finance ministry said.
…

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has awarded this year’s Nobel Prize for economics to Yale University’s William Nordhaus and New York University’s Paul Romer.

The Academy said Nordhaus and Romer “have designed methods for addressing some of our time’s most basic and pressing questions about how we create long-term sustained and sustainable economic growth.”

Nordhaus was awarded the prize “for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis”.  In the 1990s, he created a model describing how the economy and the climate affect each other on the global stage, according to the Academy.

Romer was recognized “for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis.”  The Academy said Romer’s research is the first to model how market conditions and economic decisions affect creation of new technologies.

Nordhaus, who earned his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1967, and Romer, who earned his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 1983 will split the the $1.01 million prize.

The economics prize is the last of the Nobel prizes to be awarded this year.  

The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded Friday to  Nadia Murad, a Yazidi human rights activist and survivor of sexual slavery by Islamic State in Iraq, and Denis Mukwege, a gynecologist treating victims of sexual violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Last year’s Nobel Prize for economics was awarded to American Richarld Thaler for his research on how human irrationality affects economic theory.

 
…

For the first time, researchers have been able to track the amount of Chinese investment in Australia.  From the purchase of large cattle properties to residential real estate, the scope of Chinese money has led to fraught discussions about the scale of foreign influence in Australia. The results of the research may have some surprises for some Australians who have been wary of China’s influence and the size of Chinese investments in their country.

The comprehensive new database shows how much Chinese investors are pouring into Australia. Between 2013 and 2017 the figure was more than $28 billion (U.S. dollars).Most of the money was spent on mining projects and real estate, although increasingly larger amounts are being invested by the Chinese in tourism in Australia.

Academics from the Australian National University say this is proof that Chinese investment is maturing and becoming more sophisticated.

Working with business representatives and the Australian government, researchers are for the first time charting the real value of Chinese investment.The flow of money from China has been politically sensitive, with concerns that valuable Australian farmland and real estate have become foreign-owned.

Professor Peter Drysdale, researcher at the Australian National University, says his work will help to foster a more accurate debate about China’s role.

“Getting an accurate picture of what is going on is half the battle in having a sensible public discussion,” said Drysdale. “Making it possible to have a better informed discussion about what Chinese investment actually does in Australia and what its effect is on the Australian economy.”

The database was compiled by painstaking analysis of thousands of transactions from sources such as the Foreign Investment Review Board and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The research highlighted that Chinese investment in Australia was at its highest in 2016, at $10.5 billion, but dropped to $6.2 billion in 2017.

While the report does not offer explanations for the sharp fall, bilateral business relations between Beijing and Canberra have been under increasing pressure because of diplomatic friction over alleged Chinese meddling in Australia’s domestic politics and the media.

Despite the tensions, China remains Australia’s most valuable trading partner.

 
…

Last-minute changes to a new North American trade deal sank U.S. hopes of making Canada and Mexico allow higher-value shipments to the countries by online retailers, such as Amazon.com, a top Mexican official said on Friday.

The revised pact was set to double the value of goods that could be imported without customs duties or taxes from the United States through shipping companies to Mexico.

But Canada’s adoption of a more restrictive threshold during its efforts last month to salvage a trilateral deal prompted Mexican negotiators to follow Canada’s lead, Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Friday.

The final version of the trade agreement will insulate retailers in both countries from facing greater competition from e-commerce companies like Amazon.com Inc and eBay Inc.

“It was the solution liked much more by Mexican businesses,” Guajardo told local television.

The change was came so last-minute that it was not written into the agreement published last weekend.

The new deal, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), was meant by U.S. President Donald Trump to create more jobs in the United States. Trump had been highly critical of the prior NAFTA agreement since before he ran for president.

U.S. negotiators originally pushed Mexico and Canada to raise import limits to the U.S. level of $800 from current thresholds of $50 and C$20, respectively.

Traditional retailers in Mexico opposed such a big hike, fearing online companies would sell cheap imports from Asia through the United States. Even so, Mexico initially agreed in August to raise the threshold on customs duties and taxes to $100 in its bilateral deal with the United States.

Guajardo said that Canada, after Mexico had finished negotiations, set its sales tax exemption at just C$40, about $30, and put a ceiling of C$150, about $117, on custom duties exemptions.

The Retail Council of Canada said the deal will protect retailers against a “massive change in the competitive landscape.”

Mexico decided to follow suit, Guajardo said, favoring local clothing, footwear and textile industries, as well as the finance ministry that collects duties and taxes.

Mexican negotiators lowered the sales tax exemption back to the $50 level, while raising the customs duties limit to $117, matching Canada, Guajardo said.

“Mexico offered a deal where it really didn’t concede anything,” said Adrian Correa, a senior lawyer at FedEx Corp.

Mike Dabbs, eBay’s government relations director for the Americas, said separate tax and custom duty thresholds could create confusion.

“That does not help the experience for small businesses and consumers,” he said.
…

U.S. job growth slowed sharply in September likely as Hurricane Florence depressed restaurant and retail payrolls, but the unemployment rate fell to near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent, pointing to a further tightening in labor market conditions.

The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday also showed a steady rise in wages, suggesting moderate inflation pressures, which could ease concerns about the economy overheating and keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest rate increases.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 134,000 jobs last month, the fewest in a year, as the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors shed employment. Data for July and August were revised to show 87,000 more jobs added than previously reported.

The economy needs to create roughly 120,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

“The weaker gain in payrolls in September may partly reflect some hit from Hurricane Florence,” said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in New York. “There is little in this report to stop the Fed continuing to raise interest rates gradually.”

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 185,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate falling one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.8 percent.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the economy’s outlook was “remarkably positive” and he believed it was on the cusp of a “historically rare” era of ultra-low unemployment and tame inflation.

The U.S. central bank raised rates last week for the third time this year and removed the reference in its post-meeting statement to monetary policy remaining “accommodative.”

The Labor Department said it was possible that Hurricane Florence, which lashed South and North Carolina in mid-September, could have affected employment in some industries. It said it was impossible to quantify the net effect on employment.

Payrolls are calculated from a survey of employers, which treats any worker who was not paid for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month as unemployed. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours in September. The smaller survey of households from which the jobless rate is derived regards persons as employed regardless of whether they missed work during the reference week and were unpaid as result. It showed 299,000 people reported staying at home in September because of bad weather. About 1.5 million employees worked part-time because of the weather last month.

U.S. stock index futures briefly turned positive after the data before reversing course. The dollar was trading lower against a basket of currencies while U.S. Treasury yields were higher.

Diminishing slack

The drop of two-tenths of a percentage point in the unemployment rate from 3.9 percent in August pushed it to levels last seen in December 1969 and matched the Fed’s forecast of 3.7 percent by the end of this year.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent in September after a similar rise in August.

With September’s increase below the 0.5 percent gain notched during the same period last year, the annual rise in wages fell to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent in August, which was the biggest advance in more than nine years.

Wage growth remains sufficient to keep inflation around the Fed’s 2 percent target. As more slack is squeezed out of the labor market, economists expect annual wage growth to hit 3 percent.

Last month, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector fell by 17,000 jobs, the first drop since September 2017. Retail payrolls dropped by 20,000 jobs in September. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 18,000 in September after rising by 5,000 in August.

Construction companies hired 23,000 more workers last month after increasing payrolls by 26,000 jobs in August. Professional and business services employment increased by 54,000 jobs last month and government payrolls rose 13,000.

While surveys have shown manufacturers growing more concerned about an escalating trade war between the United States and China, it does not appear to have affected hiring. In fact, the Fed’s latest survey of national business conditions reflected concerns about labor shortages that are extending into non-skilled occupations as much as about tariffs.

Washington last month slapped tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, with Beijing retaliating with duties on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. The United States and China had already imposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of each other’s goods. The trilateral trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico was salvaged in an 11th-hour deal on Sunday.

Despite the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policy, the trade deficit continues to deteriorate. The trade gap increased 6.4 percent to a six-month high of $53.2 billion in August, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. The politically sensitive goods trade deficit with China surged 4.7 percent to a record high of $38.6 billion.

 
…

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday strongly defended a prospective Russia-Germany natural gas pipeline as economically feasible and voiced hope that European Union nations will be able to resist U.S. pressure to thwart the project.

U.S. officials have warned that Washington could impose sanctions on the undersea Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The U.S. and some EU nations oppose it, warning it would increase Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. The U.S. is also interested in selling more of its liquefied natural gas in Europe.

Speaking Wednesday after talks with Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz in St. Petersburg, Putin noted that Bulgaria caved in to pressure and dumped the Russian South Stream pipeline.

He added that he hopes that “Europe as a whole won’t look like Bulgaria and won’t demonstrate its weakness and inability to protect its interests.”

“Russia always has been and will remain the most reliable supplier,” Putin said, adding that the Russian gas supplied via pipelines is significantly cheaper than U.S. liquefied gas. “Supplies come directly from Yamal in Siberia. There are no transit risks.”

It would be “silly and wasteful” if Europe opts for a more expensive option, hurting its consumers and its global competitiveness, Putin charged.

Ukraine, which has served as the main transit route for Russian gas supplies to Europe, has strongly opposed the Russian pipeline, fearing that it would leave its pipeline empty. The two ex-Soviet neighbors have been locked in a bitter tug-of-war after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

Kurz spoke in support of Nord Stream 2 but also emphasized the importance to continue supplies via Ukraine.

“It’s very important that Ukraine’s interests as a key transit country be upheld,” he said.

Putin has previously pledged to consider the continuation of gas supplies via Ukraine if it settles a commercial dispute with Russia over previous gas supplies.
…

Seven-year-old Ryan drew millions of views reviewing toys on YouTube. Now, he’s become a toy himself.

Walmart is selling action figures in his likeness, putty with his face on the packaging and other toys under the Ryan’s World brand. It’s a bet that kids, who are spending more time tapping tablets, will recognize Ryan from YouTube and want the toys he’s hawking.

The new line may also help Walmart lure former Toys R Us shoppers, as many chains make a play for those customers ahead of the holiday shopping season.

The first-grader, who’s been making YouTube videos for three years, has become a major influencer in the toy industry. The clips typically show him unboxing a toy, playing with it and then waving goodbye to viewers. His most watched video, in which Ryan hunts for large plastic eggs, has more than 1.5 billion views.

Toys featured in the videos can see a spike in sales, says Jim Silver, editor of toy review site TTPM.com. “Ryan is a celebrity,” he said. “Kids watch his videos. He’s entertaining.”

So much so that toymakers have paid Ryan and his parents to feature their products. Forbes magazine estimated that the Ryan ToysReview YouTube channel brought in $11 million last year, but his parents, Shion and Loann, declined to confirm that number or give any financial details about Ryan’s deals. They also do not give their last name or say where they live for privacy and safety reasons.

Ryan’s path from reviewer to tiny toy mogul started last year when his parents signed with Pocket.watch, a two-year-old company that works with several YouTube personalities to get their names on clothing, books and other products. Ryan is the first with a product line because of his large audience, Pocket.watch says.

Last month, Walmart started selling Ryan’s World bright-colored slime for $4, 5-inch Ryan action figures for $9 and french fry-shaped squishy toys for $18. The retailer is the exclusive seller of some of the line, including T-shirts and stuffed animals.

Whether kids will want them “all comes down to the toy,” says Silver, adding that hits are made on the playground, where youngsters show off their toys and tell others about it.

What Ryan does have is a built-in audience. A video of him searching the aisles of Walmart for Ryan’s World toys has nearly 10 million views in a month, and his YouTube page has more than 16 million subscribers. Anne Marie Kehoe, who oversees Walmart’s toy department, says a couple of thousand people showed up to a recent appearance at an Arkansas store just to see a kid “jumping around and acting crazy.”

Ryan, in a phone interview, says a lot of those people wanted his picture. He then left the phone call to play.

His parents, who stayed on the line, say Ryan spends about 90 minutes a week recording YouTube videos. They say he helped with the creation of some of the toys, like when he asked for an evil twin version of himself for a figurine.

“I’m always amazed at the point of view Ryan has,” said his dad, Shion.

Chris Williams, Pocket.watch’s founder and CEO, sees Ryan as a franchise, like how “Nickelodeon looks at SpongeBob.”

But unlike a cartoon sponge, Ryan will grow up. Williams says he expects the products to evolve with Ryan’s taste. And Ryan’s parents agree, saying they’re prepared to follow his interests as he gets older, like to video games.

“We can change,” Shion said.
…

China’s hopes of negotiating a free trade pact with Canada or Mexico were dealt a sharp setback by a provision deep in the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that aims to forbid such deals with “non-market” countries, trade experts said on Tuesday.

The provision specifies that if one of the current North American Free Trade Agreement partners enters a free trade deal with a “non-market” country such as China, the others can quit in six months and form their own bilateral trade pact.

The clause, which has stirred controversy in Canada, fits in with U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to isolate China economically and prevent Chinese companies from using Canada or Mexico as a “back door” to ship products tariff-free to the United States.

The United States and China are locked in a spiraling trade war that has seen them level increasingly severe rounds of tariffs on each other’s imports.

Under the clause, the countries in the updated NAFTA, renamed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), must notify the others three months before entering into such negotiations.

Derek Scissors, a China scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said the provision gave the Trump administration an effective veto over any China trade deal by Canada or Mexico.

If repeated in other U.S. negotiations with the European Union and Japan, it could help isolate Beijing in the global trading system.

“For both Canada and Mexico, we have a reason to think an FTA with China is a possibility. It’s not imminent, but this is a very elegant way of dealing with that,” Scissors said.

“There’s no China deal that’s worth losing a ratified USMCA,” Scissors added.

After months of bashing its Western allies on trade, the Trump administration is now trying to recruit them to join the United States in pressuring China to shift its trade, subsidy and intellectual property practices to a more-market driven focus.

Beijing has demanded that the World Trade Organization recognize it as a “market economy” since its WTO accession agreement expired in December 2016, a move that would severely limit Western trade defenses against cheap Chinese goods.

But the United States and European Union are challenging the declaration, arguing that Chinese state subsidies fueling excess industrial capacity, the exclusion of foreign competitors and other practices are signs it is still a non-market economy.

Canadian Sovereignty Questioned

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government, seeking to diversify Canada’s export base, held exploratory talks with China on trade in 2016, but a launch of formal negotiations has failed to materialize.

Tracey Ramsey, a legislator for Canada’s left-leaning New Democrats, said in the House of Commons on Tuesday that the clause was “astonishing” and a “severe restriction on Canadian independence.”

“Part of Canada’s concessions in this deal was to include language that holds Canada hostage to the Americans if we decide to trade with another country,” Ramsey said. “Why did the Liberal (Party) give the go-ahead for the U.S. to pull us into their trade wars?”

Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau downplayed the provision, arguing it was not significantly different from NAFTA’s clause that allows any member to leave the pact in six months’ time for any reason.

“It is largely the same. It recognizes though that the non-market economy is of significant importance as we move forward. But I don’t think it’s going to make a material difference in our activities,” Morneau told a business audience.

Mexico’s business community sided with the Trump administration in endorsing the pact.

“We are associating ourselves with countries that promote market freedom and that promote free trade in the world, free trade under equal circumstances,” said Juan Pablo Castañon, head of the Consejo Coordinador Empresarial (CCE), which represented Mexico’s private sector during the NAFTA trade talks.
…

As trade tensions between Beijing and Washington worsen, a debate is intensifying in China over the role private and state-owned enterprises play in the economy. The debate has even stoked fears that the communist-led government is preparing to nationalize private industries, analysts say.

Under Xi Jinping’s leadership and especially over the past year, after he scrapped rules on term limits for the president, allowing him to potentially carry on as China’s ruler for life, the communist party has begun re-asserting its dominance over all segments of society, including business.

Party on top

In June, the party announced it was mandating all listed companies set up party organizations for their employees. Over the past two weeks, as tensions with Washington have ratcheted up, there have been articles posted online suggesting it was time private enterprises step aside and that China should move toward a large scale centralized private-public mixed economy.

“The private economy has accomplished its mission to help the public economy develop and it should gradually step aside,” said Wu Xiaoping, a veteran financier, in one article.

Despite a backlash, even from state media, the fact that the article was not immediately taken down was a sign the government was testing the waters to see the public’s response, said said Frank Xie, an associate professor at the University of South Carolina Aiken.

“In China when there is something that the government doesn’t want people to hear, it won’t survive, as soon as it surfaces on the internet, on Wechat, it will be deleted and removed, right away” Xie said. “And yet this thing, the call by this guy stayed there for so long.”

A more recent comment from the Qiu Xiaoping, deputy secretary of the Ministry of Personnel and Social Affairs, was also met with a backlash. In recent remarks, Qiu said private enterprises need to be more democratic, allow for more participation in management and help strengthen the leadership of the party.

Private assurances

Chinese officials have given assurances that private companies would be looked after. During a visit to the northeastern province of Liaoning late last week, President Xi urged private companies to be confident.

He also pledged that the party would unswervingly develop, support, guide and protect the private sector. Whether Xi’s remarks meant getting more involved in private companies’ affairs was unclear.

Clearly, the private sector is deeply concerned.

“Against the backdrop of the U.S.-China trade war there are concerns that the Chinese economy will contract and that Chinese leaders may sacrifice private enterprises to prop up state-owned enterprises,” said Lu Suiqi, an associate professor of economics at Peking University.

Lu said that despite assurances, the commanding role that state-owned enterprises enjoy is unlikely to change.

State-owned enterprises have long enjoyed a monopoly over key lucrative industries in China. They’ve also long been a hotbed for corruption. And yet, despite their access to 70 percent of the country’s financial resources, they account for around 30 percent of the economy.

Private enterprises receive less access to capital and yet account for 80 percent of employment as well as contributing to 60 percent of the economic growth.

But while many in and outside of China see SOEs dragging China’s economy down and as an obstacle to free trade — state owned enterprises are a key part of Washington’s trade complaints — the party is likely to continue its effort to expand the size of state-controlled enterprises.

“Whether it is nationalizing private enterprises or making state owned enterprises bigger, it is all about expanding control,” said Darson Chiu, a research fellow at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research. From China’s point of view, “expanding the size of SOEs, will make it easier to promote a planned economy and manage risks.”

That is the opposite of what President Donald Trump is asking China to do and if Beijing does press forward, the two will be on a collision course, said Frank Xie.

“It’s only going to encourage Trump to move to the next step, with another $267 billion in tariffs,” Xie said.

Survive

But serious risks are what China is facing, and it is not just the trade war. China’s stock market is at its lowest point in nearly four years and industrial growth has slowed for four consecutive months.

The Chinese economy is facing a range of problems, including massive government and corporate debt combined with tightening liquidity.

Just last week, the head of China’s biggest real estate firm Vanke created a stir online when he announced at a regular meeting that the company’s main goal is to “survive.”

Speaking at an internal meeting, where red banners with the same words “survive” were hung, Vanke Chairman Yu Liang said China is currently at a turning point and no industry will be spared the from negative economic impacts.
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