Russian President Vladimir Putin is quickly moving to consolidate proposed constitutional reforms unveiled last week – the first in Russia in over a quarter century. The moves are part of a political shakeup that analysts say may be aimed at allowing Putin to retain influence when his current and final term at the Kremlin ends in 2024. From Moscow, Charles Maynes reports.
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A Minneapolis carpenter whom the Associated Press exposed as a former Nazi commander — a charge his family fiercely denied — has died.According to a Hennepin County, Minnesota, death certificate, Michael Karkoc died last month in a nursing home at age 100.The Ukrainian-born Karkoc came to the United States after World War II in 1949 and led a modest life, working as a carpenter and worshipping at a Ukrainian Orthodox church.FILE – This undated file photo shows Michael Karkoc, which was part of his application for German citizenship filed with the Nazi SS-run immigration office on Feb. 14, 1940.A 2013 Associated Press investigation concluded that Karkoc commanded a Nazi-led Ukrainian military unit accused of committing atrocities against Polish civilians in 1944. Dozens of women and children were among the victims. The AP said Karkoc concealed his wartime activities from U.S. immigration officials.The AP said it relied on interviews, Nazi documents, and U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence files. It also looked at Karkoc’s own memoirs where he said he was a founder of what he called the Ukrainian Self Defense Legion — a group that collaborated with the Nazi SS to stave off communist forces.German prosecutors declined to extradite Karkoc, citing his age. But Polish prosecutors say a suspected Nazi war criminal’s age is no barrier to punishment. They announced in 2017 they would seek his arrest and extradition from the United States.Karkoc’s son strongly denied his father was a war criminal, calling him a Ukrainian patriot who fought to free Ukraine of both Nazi and communist rule. Andrij Karkoc called the AP report “evil, fabricated, intolerable and malicious.”But the top Nazi hunter at the Simon Wiesenthal Center, Efraim Zuroff, said he regrets U.S. and Polish officials did not move fast enough to put Karkoc on trial.”He didn’t deserve the privilege of living in a great democracy like the United States,” Zuroff said.
 
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Spain’s new government on Tuesday declared a “climate emergency” and pledged to unveil a draft bill on transitioning to renewable energy within its first 100 days in office.In a statement announced after the weekly cabinet meeting, the government committed to bringing a draft bill “to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with the objective of reaching climate neutrality by 2050” — effectively net-zero carbon emissions.Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s leftwing coalition government, which took office on Jan. 13, also committed to updating the national plan for tackling climate change.The government has decided to ensure that “climate change and the transition is the cornerstone for all (ministerial) departments and governmental action,” spokeswoman Maria Jesus Montero told reporters.Environment Minister Teresa Ribera said the government had been inspired by French moves to create a public advisory panel “to generate ideas about responding to climate change in an inclusive, consultative way with a special focus on the youth.”Last summer, France announced the creation of a citizens’ panel on climate change made up of 150 people who would offer ideas and views on an array of issues touching on climate change “in keeping with the spirit of social justice”.At the end of November, the European Parliament voted to declare a “climate and environment emergency” in a symbolic gesture just ahead of the UN global crisis summit which took place in Madrid last monthThe motion urged efforts to ensure the “objective of limiting global warming to under 1.5 degrees C (35.7 degrees Fahrenheit).”It was followed by similar moves in a number of parliaments across the EU, notably in France, the United Kingdom and in Austria.
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A high-level panel on internal displacement established by the U.N. Secretary-General said it will seek concrete long-term solutions to try to alleviate the plight of tens of millions of people internally displaced by conflict and natural disasters. The panel had its first brainstorming session Tuesday in preparation for the complex and challenging work that will get underway on Feb. 26. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has given the eight distinguished members of this high-level panel only one year to come up with a realistic plan to prevent displacement and mitigate its effects.Last year, the number of people internally displaced by conflict around the world reached a record high of more than 41 million.  In the same year, the United Nations said 17 million other people were forced to move because of natural disasters and climate-related events.Former European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini arrives at the European Union leaders summit, in Brussels, Belgium, Oct. 17, 2019.Panel Co-Chair Federica Mogherini is the former European Commission high representative for foreign affairs and a seasoned politician.  She said the panel will address the problem of displacement from many aspects.  She said it will look for realistic, durable solutions and mobilize international support to help both the displaced and the countries hosting them.“The issue of internal displacement tends to be forgotten, while it is one of the major, not only humanitarian, but also, I would say, political crises that our times are seeing,” Mogherini said. “So, our first task will be to keep, or rather put this as high as possible on the agenda and try to provide some good advice on how this can be addressed.”  Former African Development Bank President Donald Kaberuka speaks during the opening ceremony of the annual meeting commemorating the 50th anniversary of the African Development Bank in Abidjan, May 26, 2015.Co-Chair Donald Kaberuka is a former president of the African Development Bank Group and minister of Finance and Economic Planning in Rwanda.  He said he hopes to bring his experience from the development world to find practical solutions to this problem.He told VOA it is not possible to separate development, environment and security — all elements involved in displacement.  “We would be failing the secretary-general if we did not address the issue of climate impacts …  I do not see any solution in the Sahel at the moment … unless it encompassed what we are saying,” Kaberuka said.  “What is happening to climate … and how it has fallen into a social problem and now into a security problem. Those will have to be addressed together.”  The panelists said they want a positive, productive outcome to their year-long deliberations.  As such, they said they do not intend to point fingers of shame or dwell on governmental shortcomings.  They will try to get states to work together to meet the needs of the displaced.  They said they will try to avoid politicizing the issue.  Rather, they will look at ways to help those forced to flee conflict and natural disasters live better under very difficult circumstances.   
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The United States urged China on Tuesday to join trilateral nuclear arms talks with Moscow, calling Beijing’s secrecy around growing stockpiles a “serious threat to strategic stability.”U.S. President Donald Trump said last year he had discussed a new accord on limiting nuclear arms with Russian President Vladimir Putin and hoped to extend that to China in what would be a major deal between the globe’s top three atomic powers. But China has so far refused to take part.”We think, given the fact that China’s nuclear stockpile is estimated to double over the next ten years, now is the time to have that trilateral discussion,” Robert Wood, U.S. disarmament ambassador, told reporters on the opening day of the U.N.-backed Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.He said that Washington had discussed the potential trilateral talks in a security meeting with Russia last week and had reached an “understanding” about pursuing them. “We cannot afford to wait,” he added.Asked how to go about pressuring Beijing to join, Wood said that he hoped Russia, and others, would help. “Hopefully over time and through the influence of others besides the United States, they (China) will come to the table. We think it’s imperative for global security that the Chinese do that.”Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last week that Russia would take part in potential trilateral talks but that he “won’t force China to change” its current position.China has previously said its weapons were the “lowest level” of its national security needs and not comparable to those of Russia and the United States.The United Nations is seeking the total elimination of nuclear arms but talks have been deadlocked for more than 20 years.Other talks between the five declared nuclear powers that have ratified the 1970 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – China, United States, Russia, France and the United Kingdom – are ongoing and a meeting is planned in London next month.However, Wood said this was not the right framework for nuclear arms talks with Beijing.In his speech, China’s disarmament Ambassador Li Song did not refer to its own nuclear stockpiles but called for cooperation among nuclear powers and made a thinly-veiled swipe at the Trump administration.Li called for a commitment to multilateralism, “with no exceptions, least of all the big power which shoulders a special responsibility for international peace and security and who is not expected to play the role of a ‘spoiler’ to our collective efforts and to withdraw from treaties.”
 
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Spain’s new government declared a national climate emergency on Tuesday, taking a formal first step toward enacting ambitious measures to fight climate change.
    
The declaration approved by the Cabinet says the left-of-center Socialist government will send to parliament within 100 days its proposed climate legislation. The targets coincide with those of the European Union, including a reduction of net carbon emissions to zero by 2050.
    
Spain’s coalition government wants up to 95% of the Mediterranean country’s electricity to come from renewable sources by 2040. The plan also foresees eliminating pollution by buses and trucks and making farming carbon neutral.
    
Details of the plan are to be made public when the proposed legislation is sent to parliament for approval.
   
More than two dozen countries and scores of local and regional authorities have declared a climate emergency in recent years.
    
Scientists say the decade that just ended was by far the hottest ever measured on Earth, capped off by the second-warmest year on record.
    
Also Tuesday, young climate activists including Greta Thunberg told the elites gathered at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland they are not doing enough to deal with the climate emergency and warned them that time was running out.
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An ethnologist and photographer are trying to recover a lost chapter of Poland’s past by marking the sites of now vanished Jewish cemeteries with transparent ‘headstones’ and taking photographs of them.The plexiglass installations bear laser-etched epitaphs in Hebrew to those believed to have been buried at the site.Poland was home to more than three million Jews before World War Two, one of the world’s largest Jewish communities, but the vast majority were killed by Nazi German occupiers who set up death camps such as Auschwitz on Polish soil.Next Monday world leaders including German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Israeli President Reuven Rivlin will join some of the dwindling number of survivors at Auschwitz to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the camp’s liberation.Ethnologist Katarzyna Kopecka and photographer Piotr Pawlak travel around Poland searching for the sites of former Jewish cemeteries in their ‘Currently Absent’ project.“This is a bit like bringing back roots that have been destroyed, but life is stronger than the entire attempt at destruction,” said Pawlak. “We can bring some memory back.”The POLIN Museum of the History of Polish Jews in Warsaw says on its website there are 1,164 Jewish cemeteries in Poland, but more than half of them have no tombstones left.Kopecka said they got the idea for the project after they discovered they were unwittingly sitting in an area that was actually a cemetery.“Whether it’s a field, or something else, these places are usually neglected,” said Kopecka, who plans to visit some 200 such sites with Pawlak for their project.DESCENDANTS’ INTERESTKopecka said they often work with local authorities to determine the site of a former cemetery, but even they sometimes cannot locate it, forcing her and Pawlak to rely on guesswork.The plexiglass installations are removed after they have been photographed.The pictures have been displayed in Poland’s parliament and in cultural centers around the country.“We have people contacting us whose ancestors were buried in these cemeteries and they ask when we’ll be going to a particular location,” Kopecka said.“They tell us the name of the place, they would like to obtain a photo because they’ve never been to Poland, and here rest their grandfathers, great-grandfathers, aunts and uncles.”The duo plan to publish a book of their photos and to make a documentary on the cemeteries which would also feature descendants of those buried there.
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The International Labor Organization warns that rising unemployment and inequality are preventing people from working their way out of poverty and threatening social cohesion.For the ninth consecutive year, the International Labor Organization reports global unemployment has remained stable at about 188 million people. But the agency says unemployment is projected to increase by around 2.5 million this year.The ILO says the employment picture is actually worse than these figures indicate when one factors in the 285 million people who do not have enough paid work or have are no longer looking for work. By doing this, the agency says the current global unemployment rate of 5.4 percent goes up to 13 percent.ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said this means more than 470 million people worldwide are either unemployed or underemployed. He said these people are unable to lift themselves out of poverty because they are working fewer paid hours than they would like or are underpaid for the work they do.“The report shows that for millions of working people, it is becoming increasingly difficult, I think, to build better lives through work. Persisting and substantial work-related inequalities and exclusion are preventing them from finding decent work and better futures,” he said.The report finds that significant inequalities in the workplace defined by gender, age and geographic location are growing. It said the gender gap is widening. In 2019, it notes the female labor force participation was 47 percent, which is 27 percent below the male percentage rate.The situation for young people between the ages of 15 and 24 is even worse. The report says 262 million young people have no jobs and are receiving no skills training. Ryder said inequalities are politically unacceptable and politically unsustainable.“I think that this is an extremely worrying finding and that it has very profound and worrying implications for social cohesion. And these implications need to be better addressed in policy making. Our view is that we will find sustainable inclusive parts of development only if we tackle these kinds of labor market gaps and inequalities,” he said.Ryder said labor market conditions are feeding into social unrest and affecting social cohesion in parts of the world. He notes violent anti-government protests have erupted from South America to the Middle East over political and economic grievances. He said these protests show what can happen when discontent is left to fester. 
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The European Union is considering restarting an operation to control migrant trafficking and enforce a U.N. arms embargo on Libya if a shaky truce in the North African country solidifies into a formal cease-fire. Speaking Monday after an EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, the bloc’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said member states discussed revamping the operation to include monitoring a Libya arms embargo by land as well as by sea.Known as Sophia, the mission has mostly been combating migrant trafficking off Libya’s shores. Its maritime operation ended last March, after Italy said it would no longer welcome migrants rescued at sea.  “We are not going to change but to refocus the mandate of operation Sophia, to refocus especially on the issue of embargo,” Borrell said. “The arms embargo has to be controlled not only by sea, because most of the arms goes through the desert.”Borrell said this means also enforcing the embargo by land and air. He gave no timeline. However, Italy’s foreign minister said his country is interested only in the arms embargo aspect of the Sophia operation, not the migrant component.  Borrell spoke a day after foreign powers at a Berlin summit agreed to shore up a fragile truce in Libya, where two rival governments are vying for power and energy resources.  Analysts say Europe is late in concentrating on the Libya crisis, waking up only now to its implications — especially with the recent involvement of Russia and Turkey in the conflict.  EU foreign ministers also discussed a neighboring hotspot — the Sahel — where extremist violence is growing.  Borrell described Libya as a tumor spreading instability across the Sahara. He said roughly 4,000 soldiers and civilians died in the region last year alone.  The EU announced no concrete measures Monday, but French Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian applauded what he described as Europe regaining control in international affairs. France hosted a summit last week to shore up military cooperation with West African countries against growing Islamist militancy in the Sahel.
 
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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson appears set to give the go-ahead for Chinese telecom giant Huawei to play a role in the development of Britain’s 5G wireless network — a move that risks jeopardizing intelligence-sharing between Britain and America, according U.S. officials.  Despite last-ditch lobbying by the U.S. to block Huawei, British officials say it is a “foregone conclusion” Johnson will allow Huawei participation.That would confirm a “provisional” decision made by his predecessor, Theresa May. Last year, she said Huawei should be allowed to build some so-called “non-core” parts of Britain’s future 5G data network, discounting U.S. alarm.Johnson’s final decision could come as early as this week, officials say.For a year, the Trump administration has urged Britain to ban Huawei from participating in the development of Britain’s fifth-generation wireless network. U.S. officials say there’s a significant risk that the company, which has close ties to Chinese intelligence services, will act as a Trojan horse for Beijing’s espionage agencies, allowing them to sweep up data and gather intelligence.FILE – Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrive at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., Oct. 16, 2019.Vice President Mike Pence and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have urged all Western allies to shun Huawei on security grounds. They have specifically warned Downing Street that Britain’s participation in the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing arrangement — the U.S.-led Anglophone intelligence pact linking Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Britain — would be imperiled.Australia and New Zealand have banned Huawei from developing their 5G networks. As yet, Canada has not.Senior U.S. security officials flew to London last week and warned Johnson and his ministers that allowing Huawei to supply even some non-core equipment of the future 5G network would be “nothing short of madness.”Cost factorBut Johnson has faced strong counter lobbying from China — and also from British telecom providers and mobile phone companies. They have already been installing Huawei technology to start setting up the new network in more than 70 cities in Britain. They warn that delaying the rollout of 5G would cost the British economy billions of pounds. Ripping out masts and other equipment already in place would cost British providers hundreds of millions of pounds and could delay by up to five years the 5G network.Last week, Johnson expressed frustration with the U.S. over the issue, saying in a BBC radio interview that he didn’t want “to prejudice our national security or our ability to co-operate with Five Eyes intelligence partners,” but that he wanted Britain to have “access to the best possible technology. We want to put in gigabit broadband for everybody.”Johnson added, “If people oppose one brand or another, then they have to tell us what’s the alternative.”Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson gestures as he speaks at the UK-Africa Investment Summit in London, Britain, Jan. 20, 2020.U.S. officials reportedly told Johnson that Britain shouldn’t prioritize costs over security.Johnson has some U.S. supporters.”It is a difficult decision for a number of countries, the U.K. being one of them,” said Robert Manning, an analyst at the Atlantic Council.Huawei alternativesManning sympathizes with Johnson’s complaint that the U.S. isn’t offering any alternatives to Huawei.”On one level, this is all a fallout from America First policy. We should have sat down with our allies a long time ago to sort out what you have to worry about and what you might have some leeway on. There is a certain demonization going on, ” he told VOA.British technology experts say it is easier for the U.S. to avoid using Huawei equipment, as it is building a less sophisticated 5G network and doesn’t require the advanced antenna-sharing technology Huawei has developed. They say Huawei will provide not just faster mobile data connection but easier connectivity between internet-based devices, from laptops and smart refrigerators to self-driving cars.U.S. giants Cisco and Qualcomm are the go-to 5G equipment suppliers in America. But like Europe’s Ericsson and Nokia, they can’t currently provide the same advanced equipment as Huawei or at the same low price.Security risksBritish intelligence agencies are split on whether Huawei poses a security risk.  Andrew Parker, head of MI5, believes U.S. alarm is overblown. He has said publicly that the security risks can be managed if Huawei has access to the less sensitive parts of the new network, and is monitored closely and its equipment screened.He has also discounted U.S. threats to review intelligence-sharing, saying there is “no reason to think” Washington would follow through with its threat, as the U.S.-U.K. partnership is “very close and very trusted.”But U.S. officials have told VOA that Parker is wrong to think that U.S. intelligence agencies would overlook the spying fears. They also warn that a possible Johnson fudge, whereby Huawei’s equipment would be allowed in less sensitive parts of the network, wouldn’t assuage their concerns.Top officials at Britain’s GCHQ, the eavesdropping spy agency and the country’s largest intelligence, aren’t as sanguine as Parker, and remain worried about the risks of handing Huawei unprecedented access to British citizens’ sensitive data.FILE – An analyst points to a screen at Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), Britain’s electronic intelligence service, in London, March, 14, 2014.They agree with U.S. intelligence assessments that restricting Huawei to the “edges” of the new network would make little difference to the security risk. They told Britain’s Sunday Times that giving Huawei such access would be akin to “letting a fox loose in a chicken coop.”Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who when in office ruled out using Huawei for 5G development, said the nature of 5G technology made it impossible to separate the core from non-core elements of the future network. He said Huawei could be forced by Chinese law to hand over information to Beijing’s espionage agencies.”Do you want to give China the capability to materially interfere with what will become one of the most fundamental technological platforms in the modern economy?” he said in a radio interview last week.The Chinese government says Huawei is a private company and poses no security risk to the West. Huawei has dismissed U.S. allegations that it could undermine Britain’s national security as “baseless speculation.”Beijing has also made thinly veiled threats, suggesting a decision to ban Huawei could result in Britain being punished when it comes to trade and investment.Britain hopes to pull off post-Brexit trade deals with both Washington and Beijing to help compensate for reduced trade with Europe.
 
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Chancellor Angela Merkel has asked her conservative lawmakers to wait until after a March EU summit before taking a position on whether China’s Huawei can take part in the rollout of Germany’s 5G network, sources involved in their talks said.Merkel believes European Union coordination on the issue is important and she has been unable to bridge differences within her CDU/CSU bloc, the sources said.Merkel’s conservatives are divided on whether to support a proposal by their Social Democrat (SPD) junior coalition partners that, if approved, would effectively shut out the Chinese technology giant from the network.
  
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has submitted to Parliament a package of constitutional amendments widely seen as an attempt to secure his grip on power well after his current term ends in 2024.Putin first presented the proposed changes in his state-of-the-nation address Wednesday, arguing they are intended to bolster the role of Parliament and strengthen democracy. Kremlin critics have argued that they are intended to allow his rule for life.The Kremlin-controlled lower house, the State Duma, confirmed on Monday that it has received a draft bill on constitutional proposals from the Kremlin. The lawmakers will fast-track the document, putting it for discussion at Thursday’s meeting.Putin, 67, has been in power for more than 20 years, longer than any other Russian or Soviet leader since Josef Stalin, who led from 1924 until his death in 1953. Under the law now in force, Putin must step down as president when his current term ends.Observers say that the proposed changes could allow Putin to stay in charge by shifting into the position of head of the State Council or moving into the prime minister’s seat after increasing the powers of Parliament and the Cabinet and trimming presidential authority.Putin’s amendments include a proposal to give the constitution a clear priority over international law – a tweak seen as a reflection of the Kremlin’s irritation over the European Court of Human Rights’ rulings that held Russia responsible for human rights violations.Another suggested amendment says that top government officials aren’t allowed to have foreign citizenship or residence permits.Parallel to lawmakers, a working group created by Putin will also consider the proposed changes before they are put to the vote.Putin said that the constitutional changes need to be approved by the entire nation, but it wasn’t immediately clear how such a vote would be organized.Along with amending the constitution, Putin last week also fired Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who had the job for eight years, and named tax chief Mikhail Mishustin to succeed him. The Russian leader is yet to appoint the new Cabinet. 
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World leaders have agreed to provide no further military support to warring parties in Libya and to sanction those who violate the arms embargo. But there was no commitment to withdraw existing military support. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo represented the United States at the summit Germany’s capital Berlin on Sunday to take part in another effort towards peace in a divided country, where General Khalifa Haftar challenges the United Nations-backed government in Tripoli. VOA’s Zlatica Hoke reports.
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Russia’s Vladimir Putin is denying that he’s planning to retain his grip on power when he relinquishes his country’s presidency in 2024.The 67-year-old Putin dismissed accusations that sweeping constitutional changes he laid out in a speech Wednesday would allow him to retain his grip on a country he’s ruled for 20 years.President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with a man after attending a wreath laying commemoration ceremony for the 77th anniversary since the Leningrad siege was lifted during World War II at the Piskaryovskoye Memorial Cemetery, Jan. 14, 2020.Speaking Saturday while on a visit to his hometown of St. Petersburg, Putin said he understood peoples alarm but that he doesn’t want Russia to return to the Soviet-era practice of rulers dying in office without a succession plan.“In my view, it would be very worrying to return to the situation of the mid-1980s when heads of state one by one remained in power until the end of their days, [and] left office without having secured necessary conditions for a transition of power,” Putin said.“So, thank you very much, but I think it’s better not to return to the situation of the mid-1980s,” he added.But many of his critics are skeptical of his assurances.They worry Putin’s proposals, the first significant changes to the country’s constitution since it was adopted under Boris Yeltsin in 1993, are designed to ensure he keeps a grip on the levers of power after he leaves the Kremlin.Putin’s term in office is set to end in 2024, and he cannot run again as the constitution prohibits anyone serving more than two consecutive terms.FILE – Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the State Council in Moscow, Jan. 15, 2020.The proposed constitutional changes he unveiled Wednesday, at this stage still vague, could allow him to retain power as national leader either as prime minister, a maneuver he’s used before to circumvent term limits, chairman of the country’s parliament or as head of a revamped but still ill-defined state council, his critics say.Political foes have dubbed the proposed shake-up a “constitutional coup,” which would see the presidency reduced in importance. Some former Kremlin advisers say none of the powerful factions within the Kremlin or the country’s oligarchs want Putin to go, for fear his departure would trigger internecine warfare within the governing class.In a recent interview with VOA, before Putin’s announcement, one of his former advisers, Gleb Pavlovsky, said that to a certain degree he’s trapped within the system he created. Putin can’t quit for fear that everything will fall apart, Pavlovsky said.While Putin’s proposal has prompted outrage from rights activists, liberals and his political foes, ordinary Russians, even those critical of Putin, seem resigned, with many saying they’d never expected he’d relinquish power in four years’ time.
“I feel indifferent,” Ekaterina, a 28-year-old financial adviser told VOA. “Most of my friends are just making jokes about it” because they feel impotent, she added.In 2011-2012 tens of thousands of people took to the streets following Putin’s return to the presidency for his third term, Ekaterina and others of her age group say they doubt large-scale protests to Putin’s plan will happen now. In August a series of protests were mounted against rigged elections to Moscow’s city council, but they have fizzled.FILE – Russian President Vladimir Putin, center right, and Kazakhstan’s former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, center left, attend the Victory Day military parade to mark 74 years since the end of World War II, in Red Square in Moscow, May 9, 2019.Some opposition politicians say Putin’s proposals would see Russia gravitate to a Central Asian model of governance. They accuse Putin of wanting to prolong his state leadership by following the model of Kazakhstan, where Nursultan Nazarbayev, left the presidency last year but has maintained his iron grip on his Central Asian country as chairman of an all-powerful Security Council.”It is a complete ideological switch on the part of the ruling class from a Western ideology to something else — an Eastern one or an Ancient Roman one,” said Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Moscow Center, a think tank.The Russian leader’s “reform” proposals include also abolishing the primacy of international law now enshrined in the country’s current constitution. That possible change is alarming Russia’s beleaguered civil society groups, which are already seeing a tightening of restrictions on their work.
“As a member of the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Russia is bound by international standards on human rights, civil liberties and the rule of law — including democratic elections, protections from arbitrary imprisonment, and freedoms of the media, assembly, and association,” wrote opposition politician and journalist Vladimir Kara-Murza in the Washington Post Friday.Those commitments have long been ignored, “but by establishing the primacy of domestic statutes, the Kremlin intends to free itself from its remaining formal commitments under international law, signaling yet another milestone in its growing isolation,” he said.
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The head of the World Economic Forum says it’s “reassuring” that U.S. President Donald Trump and climate activist Greta Thunberg will both return to its annual meeting in Davos this year, noting that concerns about the environment will be a key topic.
WEF founder Klaus Schwab sees vast changes in business, society and culture over the 50 years since he created the yearly gathering in the Swiss Alps, which initially was a forum for business leaders but now is a key stop for policymakers and activists as well.
Following another year of extreme heat, out-of-control wildfires and melting ice sheets, environmental issues are considered to be the top five long-term risks confronting the global economy, WEF said last week, citing a survey of more than 750 decision-makers.
It said catastrophic trends like global warming, climate change and the extinction of animal species would top the agenda at the meeting that begins Tuesday.
The forum is shifting its focus of recent years from how technology is transforming lives to the environment and responsible business practices that promote jobs, fight climate change and work for social good along with profit-making.
The focus on environment could make for an uncomfortable subject for Trump, whose administration has called for expanded use of carbon-spewing coal, stripped away environmental protections and played down concerns among scientists about man-made climate change. Trump has also moved to take the U.S. out of the landmark 2015 Paris accord to fight climate change.
Schwab says Trump is welcome because of his role on the world stage while Thunberg will keep the focus on the environment. Both will speak Tuesday on the opening day.
“I think both voices are necessary,” Schwab said Sunday in an interview with The Associated Press. “The environment will play a particularly important role during this meeting.”
Schwab pointed to the forum’s 160 “lighthouse” projects on inclusion and equality; economic development; technology governance; regional development; corporate leadership and ecology, including a project to plant a trillion trees.
“So if Greta comes this year, she will see that we have made substantial progress,” he said, alluding to her debut at the forum last year.Time magazine chose Thunberg as its “Person of the Year” for 2019.
Schwab claimed the forum has helped air concerns about the environment since the 1970s, but said public awareness about climate issues has now exploded.
“Now we have recognized the urgency, because we know the window to act [on climate change] is closing,” he said, adding he hoped to inject “this sense of urgency into the meeting.”
He said many companies are increasingly seeing the benefits of “ESG” — environmental, social and governance — concerns in their business models.
 “Companies recognize … doing good … it’s a precondition for some long-term survival,” Schwab said.
On Friday, Schwab and the chairmen of Bank of America and Dutch nutrition company Royal DSM sent a joint open letter to corporate leaders on hand this year to set “a target to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner” if their companies haven’t done so already.
The forum chief said nearly all European Union leaders will be on hand this year, including  German Chancellor Angela Merkel.  He said the EU has a chance to lay out its vision for the future and turn the corner after three years of haggling over Britain’s departure from the bloc, which comes at the end of this month.
He also brushed aside critics who have faulted the forum as an overly exclusive vacation for the world’s out-of-touch elites.
“If I am particularly proud of something during the last 50 years, it is of having created many years ago the community of young leaders,” Schwab said, citing 10,000 young “Global Shapers” in over 400 cities who he said are engaged in issues on the ground. “We try — and I think quite successfully — to integrate the bottom-up, young generation very much.”
The Davos gathering has battled a reputation of being a haunt for the rich, powerful and famous over its five decades. Over the years, the forum has hosted celebrities like Hollywood stars Shirley Maclaine and George Clooney, Nobel Peace Prize laureates Shimon Peres and Yasser Arafat, and former South African presidents F.W. de Klerk and Nelson Mandela, and business gurus like Davos regular Bill Gates.  
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A survey of 16,000 millennials in 16 countries at peace and at war indicates a majority is nervous about the future, and a large plurality believes heightened global tensions are likely to lead to a catastrophic war.  Launch of the report was commissioned last year by the International Committee of the Red Cross.The ICRC survey finds millennials are deeply pessimistic about the future they face.   The results indicate this generation of young people, now between the ages of 25 and 39, is worried about future conflicts and nuclear weapons.  Other top concerns include unemployment, increasing poverty and terrorism.Among those surveyed, 47% think there will be a third world war in their lifetime.  However, 84% believe the use of nuclear weapons is never acceptable.  ICRC legal adviser Nishat Nishat calls this extremely encouraging.”I think there is something very encouraging at the fact that millennials, my generation and people in the world, I think generally now have understood the sort of catastrophic effects nuclear weapons could have and how those effects would be just unacceptable regardless of the circumstances under which these would be used,” said Nishat. Nevertheless, Nishat notes 54% believe it is more likely than not that a nuclear attack will occur in the next decade.  The survey reveals a worrisome lack of respect for basic human values enshrined in international law.For example, international law bans torture and inhumane treatment under all circumstances.  Yet, 37% of millennials surveyed believe torture is acceptable under some circumstances. ICRC deputy head of resource mobilization Daniel Littlejohn-Carrillo, said an overwhelming majority of respondents believe combatants should avoid civilian casualties as much as possible.  However, he expresses concern that 15% support any actions needed to win a war, regardless of civilian casualties.”This strongly justifies also the work of the ICRC.  I feel, we feel in making sure that we continue to reach people, in particular that 15% of the population, to ensure that messages, that pressure on policy makers, on decision makers is really geared and oriented towards reducing civilian casualties as much as possible,” he said.Overall, 73% of respondents say addressing mental health needs of conflict victims is just as important as providing food, water and shelter.The Geneva Conventions, which regulate how wars are fought, were adopted 70 years ago.  A large majority of millennials surveyed believes more should be done to limit the ways war can be fought. 
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The coffins of 11 Ukrainians killed when Iran’s military mistakenly shot down a passenger airliner after takeoff from Tehran international airport arrived in Kyiv on Sunday as new questions emerged over Iranian officials’ cooperation in ongoing investigations into the tragedy.President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk, and other senior Ukrainian officials participated in a solemn ceremony after the 11 flag-draped coffins arrived in the Ukrainian capital carrying the bodies of nine Ukrainian International Airlines crew members and two passengers killed along with 165 other people when Flight PS752 went down on January 8.Iranian officials have said that air defenses on high alert during heightened tensions after Iranian missile strikes made an error and fired antiaircraft defenses at the Boeing 737-800.Ukrainians and officials from the four other countries that lost nationals in the disaster have demanded a “thorough, independent, and transparent” investigation.Now, the Iranian official who is leading the investigation for Tehran has appeared to backtrack on a pledge to share the crucial black boxes that were collecting flight data aboard the aircraft.Hassan Rezaifer, head of the accident investigations unit of Iran’s civil aviation authority, was quoted on January 19 by the state-run IRNA news agency as saying “the flight recorders from the Ukrainian Boeing are in Iranian hands and we have no plans to send them out,” AP reported.Work to read the data was ongoing, he was quoted as saying, “But as of yet, we have made no decision” on transferring the black boxes outside the country.Rezaifer had been quoted by the Tasnim news agency as saying French, American, and Canadian experts would work with the equipment after it was sent to Kyiv because Iranian authorities had been unable to read the black-box data.”If this effort is unsuccessful, then the black box will be sent to France,” he had added, according to Tasnim.Senior Iranian officials called for the punishment of those responsible after air-defense forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) shot down the plane.Joint StatementThe foreign ministers of Afghanistan, Britain, Canada, Sweden, and Ukraine issued a joint statement after a meeting in London on January 17 to pressure Iran to give a full accounting.Most of the victims on the flight were Iranians or dual citizens, many of them students returning to studies abroad or families returning home after visiting relatives in Iran.Meanwhile, Ukrainians gathered at Boryspil International Airport outside Kyiv for a ceremony on January 19 to honor the flight’s casualties as their bodies arrived home for burial.The incident came shortly after Iran launched missiles at military bases in Iraq that hosted U.S. forces, in an attack that was a response to a January 3 U.S. air strike that killed top Iranian military commander Major General Qasem Soleimani near Baghdad’s international airport.After initially denying it shot down the plane, Tehran eventually admitted that its forces “unintentionally” struck the airliner with a missile after it said it veered toward a sensitive military site.Thousands of Iranians took to the streets to protest their government’s actions, prompting public calls for punishment of the individuals responsible for the mistake.Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for national unity and defended the country’s armed forces in a rare sermon at Tehran’s Mosalla Mosque on January 17.He accused Iran’s enemies of using the plane crash to question the Islamic republic, the armed forces, and the IRGC, which he said “maintained the security” of Iran. 
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Goodbye, your royal highnesses. Hello, life as — almost — ordinary civilians.Prince Harry and wife Meghan will no longer use the titles “royal highness” or receive public funds for their work under a deal that lets the couple step aside as working royals, Buckingham Palace announced Saturday.Releasing details of the dramatic split triggered by the couple’s unhappiness with life under media scrutiny, the palace said Harry and Meghan will cease to be working members of the royal family when the new arrangements take effect in the “spring of 2020.”The radical break is more complete than the type of arrangement anticipated 10 days ago when the royal couple stunned Britain with an abrupt announcement that they wanted to step down. They said they planed to combine some royal duties with private work in a “progressive” plan, but that is no longer on the table.Harry and Meghan will no longer use the titles His Royal Highness and Her Royal Highness but will retain them, leaving the possibility that the couple might change their minds and return sometime in the future.Harry’s late mother, Diana, was stripped of the Her Royal Highness title when she and Prince Charles divorced.They will be known as Harry, Duke of Sussex, and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex. Harry will remain a prince and sixth in line to the British throne.FILE PHOTO: Britain’s Queen Elizabeth departs from St Mary Magdalene’s church on the Sandringham estate in eastern England, Jan. 12, 2020.The agreement also calls for Meghan and Harry to repay 2.4 million pounds ($3.1 million) in taxpayers’ money spent renovating a house for them near Windsor Castle, Frogmore Cottage. The use of public funds to transform the house’s five separate apartments into a spacious single family home for them had raised ire in the British press. They will continue to use Frogmore Cottage as their base in England.The deal came after days of talks among royals sparked by Meghan and Harry’s announcement last week that they wanted to step down as senior royals and live part-time in Canada.The couple’s departure is a wrench for the royal family, and Queen Elizabeth II did say earlier this week that she wished the couple had wanted to remain full-time royals, but she had warm words for them in a statement Saturday.The 93-year-old queen said she was pleased that “together we have found a constructive and supportive way forward for my grandson and his family. Harry, Meghan and Archie will always be much loved members of my family.“I recognize the challenges they have experienced as a result of intense scrutiny over the last two years and support their wish for a more independent life,” Elizabeth said.“It is my whole family’s hope that today’s agreement allows them to start building a happy and peaceful new life,” she added.Newspapers are seen for sale in London, Jan. 9, 2020. In a statement Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan, said they are planning “to step back” as senior members of the royal family and “work to become financially independent.Newspapers are seen for sale in London, Jan. 9, 2020. In a statement Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan, said they are planning “to step back” as senior members of the royal family and “work to become financially independent.”Despite the queen’s kind words, the new arrangement will represent an almost complete break from life as working royals, especially for Harry. As a devoted Army veteran and servant to the crown, the prince carried out dozens of royal engagements each year,Royal expert and author Penny Junor said the new setup will benefit both sides of the family.“There are no blurred lines. They are starting afresh and they are going with the queen’s blessing, I think it is the best of all worlds,” she said.It is not yet clear whether Harry and Meghan will continue to receive financial support from Harry’s father, Prince Charles, who used revenue from the Duchy of Cornwall to help fund his activities and those of his wife and sons.The duchy, chartered in 1337, produced more than 20 million pounds ($26 million) in revenue last year. It is widely regarded as private money, not public funds, so Charles may opt to keep details of its disbursal private. Much of the royals’ wealth comes from private holdings.Though Harry and Meghan will no longer represent the queen, the palace said they would “continue to uphold the values of Her Majesty” while carrying out their private charitable work.The withdrawal of Harry from royal engagements will increase the demands on his brother, Prince William, and William’s wife, Kate, the Duchess of Cambridge.Buckingham Palace did not disclose who will pay for the couple’s security going forward. It currently is taxpayer-funded and carried out primarily by a special unit of the Metropolitan Police, also known as Scotland Yard.“There are well established independent processes to determine the need for publicly funded security,” it said.Harry and Meghan have grown increasingly uncomfortable with constant media scrutiny since the birth in May of their son, Archie. They married in 2018 in a ceremony that drew a worldwide TV audience.Meghan joined the royal family after a successful acting career and spoke enthusiastically about the chance to travel throughout Britain and learn about her new home, but disillusionment set in fairly quickly.She launched legal action against a newspaper in October for publishing a letter she wrote to her father. Harry has complained bitterly of racist undertones in some media coverage of his wife, who is biracial.There has also been a breach in the longtime close relationship between Harry and William, a future king, over issues that have not been made public.The couple’s desire to separate from the rest of the family had been the subject of media speculation for months. But they angered senior royals by revealing their plans on Instagram and a new website without advance clearance from the queen or palace officials.Elizabeth summoned Harry, William and Charles, to an unusual crisis meeting at her rural retreat in eastern England in an effort to find common ground.The result was Saturday’s agreement, which is different from Harry and Meghan’s initial proposal that they planned to combine a new, financially independent life with a reduced set of royal duties.It is not known where in Canada the couple plan to locate. They are thought to be considering Vancouver Island, where they spent a long Christmas break, or Toronto, where Meghan filmed the TV series “Suits” for many years.It is not clear what Harry and Meghan’s immigration and tax status will be in Canada, or whether Meghan will follow through on plans to obtain British nationality.
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Forces loyal to Libyan military strongman Khalifa Haftar blocked oil exports from the war-ravaged country’s main ports Saturday, raising the stakes on the eve of an international summit aimed at bringing peace to the North African nation. The move to cripple the country’s main income source was a protest against Turkey’s decision to send troops to shore up Haftar’s rival, the head of Tripoli’s U.N.-recognized government, Fayez al-Sarraj. It came ahead of Sunday’s conference in Berlin that will see the United Nations try to extract a pledge from world leaders to stop meddling in the Libyan conflict — be it through supplying troops, weapons or financing. “All foreign interference can provide some aspirin effect in the short term, but Libya needs all foreign interference to stop,” U.N. Libya envoy Ghassan Salame told AFP in an interview. Call for ‘protection’But Sarraj issued a call for international “protection troops” if Haftar keeps up his offensive. “Such a protection force must operate under the auspices of the United Nations. Experts will have to advise who should participate, such as the EU or the African Union or the Arab League,” he told the Die Welt newspaper on Sunday. The presidents of Russia, Turkey and France as well as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are to join the Sunday talks, held under the auspices of the U.N. Haftar and Sarraj are also expected, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas confirmed Saturday, ahead of the first gathering of such scale on the conflict since 2018. After months of combat, which has killed more than 2,000 people, a cease-fire took effect on January 12, backed by both Ankara and Moscow, which is accused of supporting Haftar. Drastic cut in crude productionBut Saturday’s blockade raised fears over the conflict. The disruption to oil exports is expected to more than halve the country’s daily crude production, to 500,000 barrels from 1.3 million barrels, translating to losses of $55 million a day, Libya’s National Oil Company warned. “Our line at the U.N. is clear. Don’t play with petrol because it’s the livelihood of the Libyans,” warned Salame just hours before the blockade. 
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Goodbye, your royal highnesses. Hello, life as — almost — ordinary civilians.Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan, are quitting as working royals and will no longer use the titles “royal highness” or receive public funds for their work under a deal announced Saturday by Buckingham Palace.The palace said Harry and Meghan will cease to be working members of the royal family when the new arrangements take effect within months, in the “spring of 2020.” They will be known as Harry, Duke of Sussex and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.The couple will no longer use the titles His Royal Highness and Her Royal Highness, but they are not being stripped of them. Harry will remain a prince and sixth in line to the British throne.The agreement also calls for Meghan and Harry to repay 2.4 million pounds ($3.1 million) in taxpayers’ money that was spent renovating their home near Windsor Castle, Frogmore Cottage.FILE – Frogmore Cottage, the home of Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, is seen in Windsor, England, Feb. 17, 2019.The couple’s departure is a wrench for the royal family, but Queen Elizabeth II had warm words for them in a statement Saturday.The queen said she was pleased that “together we have found a constructive and supportive way forward for my grandson and his family. Harry, Meghan and Archie will always be much loved members of my family.””I recognize the challenges they have experienced as a result of intense scrutiny over the last two years and support their wish for a more independent life,” Elizabeth said.”It is my whole family’s hope that today’s agreement allows them to start building a happy and peaceful new life,” she added.The announcement came after days of talks among royal courtiers sparked by Meghan and Harry’s announcement last week that they wanted to step down as senior royals and live part-time in Canada.The details of the deal solidify the couple’s dramatic break from life as working royals. Army veteran Harry will have to give up the military appointments he has as a senior royal.While he and Meghan will no longer represent the queen, the palace said they would “continue to uphold the values of Her Majesty” while carrying out their private charitable work.Buckingham Palace did not disclose who will pay for the couple’s security going forward. It currently is taxpayer-funded.”There are well established independent processes to determine the need for publicly funded security,” it said.
 
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called on Europe to support its work in Libya, where it is providing military support to the internationally recognized government, if it wants to end the conflict there. Erdogan made his remarks in a column published on the Politico website on Saturday, ahead of a summit in Berlin on Sunday that will try to stabilize the country. At the meeting, Germany and the United Nations will push rival Libyan camps fighting over the capital, Tripoli, to agree to a truce and monitoring mechanism as first steps toward peace, diplomats and a draft communique said. Turkey supports the government of Fayez al-Serraj in Tripoli and describes Khalifa Haftar, who heads the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA), as a coup plotter. “Keeping in mind that Europe is less interested in providing military support to Libya, the obvious choice is to work with Turkey, which has already promised military assistance,” Erdogan wrote. “We will train Libya’s security forces and help them combat terrorism, human trafficking and other serious threats against international security,” he added. Conversation with MerkelAs the summit loomed, the Turkish president spoke by phone with its host, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to discuss developments in Libya and the region, Erdogan’s office said. In a sign of tensions surrounding the Libyan issue, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu criticised Greece for hosting Haftar ahead of the summit in a tweet directed at Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias. “Inviting Haftar to Greece and highlighting Greek national agenda sabotage the efforts to bring peace to Libya. We would like to remind our Greek friends that these futile efforts are in vain. @NikosDendias,” Cavusoglu wrote. Sunday’s summit will put pressure on Haftar and the LNA to halt a nine-month offensive against Tripoli after a weeklong lull in fighting. But it will not try to broker power-sharing between the two sides, said diplomats briefed on preparations. 
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A French government minister warned that seditious groups bent on violence were hijacking the protest movement against pension reform that has gripped the country, after a fire Saturday damaged a renowned Paris restaurant patronized by President Emmanuel Macron.The Paris fire service said the pre-dawn blaze that singed a corner of the La Rotonde eatery was quickly extinguished. The Paris prosecutor’s office launched an investigation to determine the cause of the fire.But Marlene Schiappa, the government’s secretary of state for equality, said the blaze “probably” resulted from a criminal act. She described a climate in France “of hate and of violence that is quite incredible,” citing the restaurant fire among a list of examples.“Seditious groups want the law of ‘might is right’ to reign, to impose violence on all people who think differently from them,” Schiappa said on French news channel BFM-TV. “It is very alarming and unworthy of a democracy like France.”After six weeks of labor strikes and nationwide protests against government plans to overhaul France’s pension system, there are mounting signs of splits within the movement. As some strikers return to work and train services that have been severely disrupted by walkouts see notable improvements, more radical protesters are trying to keep the movement going.The fire at La Rotonde came just days after demonstrators shouting “Death to Macron, death to La Rotonde” marched past the eatery, restaurant manager Gerard Tafanel said.He said marchers wore the bright jackets of the ‘yellow vest’ protest movement that has demonstrated against the policies of Macron’s government for more than a year. Tafanel said a yellow vest also was found by police officers investigating Saturday’s fire.Macron’s name has been associated with the restaurant since he celebrated there during the 2017 presidential election, after qualifying for the second-round runoff that he later won.Macron was a target of protesters himself on Friday night, too.Seemingly tipped off to his presence by people inside, several dozen protesters converged on a Paris theater where Macron was watching an evening performance with his wife. Video showed protesters chanting “Macron resign” and some entering a door as surprised police tried to hold them back. A black car reported to be carrying Macron then sped away under a hail of boos.Earlier Friday, dozens of protesters also blocked the entrance to the Louvre museum and forced the famous Paris landmark to close.Transportation strikes against the pension overhaul began on Dec. 5. Saturday marked their 45th consecutive day, although the job actions are no longer as disruptive as they were earlier.Workers in other sectors of the economy have held strikes, too, including at ports and oil refineries.On Saturday, musicians, singers and other members of the striking Paris Opera drew a crowd with a free concert in front of the Palais Garnier opera house.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin played it differently this time.Instead of openly declaring plans to extend his rule like he did in 2011, Putin proposed constitutional amendments to appear to give more power to Russia’s parliament.Instead of announcing the move as a fait accompli, he said the people should vote and decide.And then he executed a swift, unexpected reshuffle of Russia’s leadership, putting a low-profile official with no political aims in charge of the government.Putin announced what many see as a strategy for staying in power well past the end of his term in 2024. And the proposed constitutional reforms that might allow him to remain in charge as prime minister or as head of the State Council didn’t elicit much public outrage.Neither did the resignation of Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s prime minister, whom Putin quickly replaced with the little-known tax chief, Mikhail Mishustin.There was a smattering of calls for protest: One opposition supporter urged people to join his one-man picket in front of the Presidential Administration on Saturday, while another called for protesters to turn out against the “constitutional coup” at a Sunday rally in honor of two slain activists.It was very different from what happened in 2011-2012, when efforts to engineer Putin’s return to the presidency crushed Russian hopes for liberalization and sparked massive protests in Moscow.In his speech Wednesday, Putin presented his plan to amend the constitution as a way to improve democracy. By suggesting that lawmakers could name prime ministers and Cabinet members, he also curtailed the authority of the president, who currently holds that power.Putin also said the constitution could specify a greater role for the State Council, an obscure consultative body of regional governors and federal officials, indicating that he might take a leading position there.He also sought to prioritize the primacy of Russian laws, so that the European Court of Human Rights would no longer have the authority to issue rulings that Moscow opposed.All this would “strengthen the role of civil society, political parties and regions in making key decisions about the development of our state,” Putin said Thursday in discussing the amendments with lawmakers.New Prime Minister Mishustin was praised by government officials and commentators as an “effective manager” with expertise in finance who would be able to drive Russia’s stagnating economy out of a slump.Many Russians might see that as a positive change rather than a sophisticated political plot. According to a survey released Friday by Russia’s state-funded pollster VTsIOM, 45% of the respondents saw the shakeup as Putin’s genuine desire to change the existing power structure.But opposition leaders like Alexei Navalny said the changes are not the kind that people are looking for. Putin is looking to “remain a lifelong, ultimate leader” and run Russia as “property” divided between himself and his backers, Navalny tweeted.And the announced changes do nothing to address what Russians really want, said Navalny ally Lyubov Sobol.“People demand to end corruption, people demand to improve their living conditions. They demand a reform of the health care system, they’re worried about pension reform. All these demands, they are not going anywhere,” Sobol told The Associated Press.Vladimir Milov, an opposition politician, echoed that sentiment. Russians are willing to put up with worsened living conditions if they see potential for growth in the future — but Putin’s address shows he’s not interested in that, he said.“This is the main conflict between Putin and society right now,” Milov said. “Society can’t wait for economic growth to start again, and Putin doesn’t care, he’s occupied with other things. At some point, this will backfire.”Still, the announced constitutional reforms are unlikely to trigger a new wave of protests.“All recent protests happened when discontent that has been building up for a while spilled out, triggered by something. Amending the constitution is unlikely to be a trigger,” Milov said.Denis Volkov, a sociologist with the independent Levada polling center, said the government shakeup is so vague it is unlikely to spur public anger.“What is happening is not clear. Is this about a presidency? About some other governing body? It is unclear what people should express their unhappiness about,” Volkov said. “It is hard to protest against something that’s unclear.”In addition, Volkov noted, back in 2011-2012 Putin’s approval ratings were much lower — more than half of the country wanted him out. “Right now there is no urge to replace the country’s leader,” he said.And the question remains whether the opposition will be able to galvanize people to protest. The Kremlin last year turned up the pressure on activists and politicians, sandbagging them with high-figure fines and exhausting them with arrests and trials.There are several criminal cases open against Sobol and other Navalny allies. Sobol said she owes the government more than $400,000 in fines, and expects more fines to be imposed on opposition figures.“There is a high probability that political pressure on us will continue this year,” she said.Still, Sobol vowed the opposition will continue the fight — by protesting, contesting the government’s actions in court and exposing corrupt officials.On Thursday, Navalny said in a post online that Mishustin’s wife earned some $12 million over the past nine years, according to her tax returns, even though she never owned nor ran a business. He demanded answers from Mishustin, who headed Russia’s tax service until he was named prime minister this week, and alleged there was corruption involved.Dmitry Gudkov, a former lawmaker turned opposition politician, believes an early parliamentary election is likely, since he says the Kremlin would want the vote to be this year instead of next.“They’re in a rush and want to (pass the proposed constitutional amendments) with the sitting parliament, which they fully control,” Gudkov. “Clearly that changes our strategy.”
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Russia is rapidly expanding foreign arms deals worldwide, with Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin confirming to the Russian military’s newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda December 20 that Moscow has signed military cooperation pacts with 39 countries in the last five years, many of them in Southeast Asia, including Laos, which has not been buying Russian weapons on this scale for decades.The expansion is raising eyebrows and comes as relations between Russia and NATO have broken down.Analysts said old Cold War alliances with countries such as Laos, Moscow’s appetite for barter deals, and the potential for access to railroads under construction that will provide access to seaports and trade routes along the Vietnamese, Cambodian and Thai coasts, appeal to Moscow, and the arms sales are part of a larger effort by Russia to strengthen its links with these countries.“Moscow’s motives appear to be a combination of commercial and the perhaps disruptive, in the sense that any erosion of U.S. or European defense interests is a de facto win,” Gavin Greenwood, an analyst with A2 Global Risk, a Hong Kong-based security consultancy, told VOA.He said Russia had accounted for 25% of major arms sales in Southeast Asia since 2000, and according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Moscow sold $6.6 billion in arms to Southeast Asia between 2010 and 2017, as much as the U.S. and China combined.The institute also says Russia accounted for 60% of arms sales across Asia and Oceania between 2014 and 2018.However, Russia also needs to offset falling sales to India, and the MiG-29 and Sukhoi-30 fighters purchased by Malaysia in 1995 are nearing the end of their life. Greenwood said any replacement was unlikely to be procured from Russia, as they are also considering deals with U.S. and European suppliers.Southeast Asia focusAs a result  of declining arms sales to India, Russia is falling further behind the U.S. in global arms sales, analysts say,  but it has remained the dominant player in Southeast Asia, where analysts said  South China Sea disputes, terrorism   and competition among rival states is increasing demand for high-tech weaponry.Fomin said progress in developing military cooperation with traditional partners China and India had been made alongside fresh efforts with Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos.“Their efforts to sell are obviously increasing and there’s a sense from some quarters that this is a strategic effort by Moscow – while others would say probably not, it’s commercial,” Greenwood said.Russia remains a primary supplier to Vietnam, accounting for 60% of all military sales to that country – including submarines – and is seeking opportunities in the Philippines while stepping up sales to Malaysia, Indonesia and Myanmar.Meanwhile, strategically important Laos, which forms a buffer between China and Southeast Asia, has increased its spending, acquiring Russian T-72B tanks, BRDM-2M armored vehicles, YAK 130 fighter jets and helicopters.In addition,  Russia and Laos last month launched the nine-day Laros 2019 exercise, their first joint military exercise, with more than 500 soldiers taking part alongside the recently acquired tanks, which was seen as part of a greater effort to deepen military ties with Southeast Asia.Analysts said further joint military exercises with Laos are now in the offing together with more arms and training for Laotian officers in Russian military academies.The timing could be related to Chinese railway construction, “which will connect southern-southwest China to Thailand,” Greenwood said, which would provide further seaport access.FILE – People attend a mobile exhibition installed on freight cars of a train and displaying military equipment, vehicles and weapons, in Sevastopol, Crimea.Ukraine sanctionsIncreased weapon sales worldwide can be traced to Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine six years ago. Sanctions followed and the ruble collapsed, sparking a three-year financial crisis.
 
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales said military technology is one of Russia’s much-needed strengths.“Annexation of the Crimea was accompanied by very punishing sanctions by the United States and Russia went through a phase of trying to recover by developing its domestic market.“That didn’t work, and they had to do overseas exports and the one thing the Russians have is military technology,” Thayer told VOA, echoing Greenwood.Meanwhile, the issue for most Southeast Asian countries is that access to high-tech weaponry is limited to the U.S., which ties sales to human rights, and Russia, which offers soft loans, state-backed credits, barter deals, spares and servicing with a no such strings attached.  Don Greenlees, senior adviser at the Asialink think tank at the University of Melbourne, said U.S. costs and conditions, coupled with sanctions, mean easier options are available in Russia.“If you want really high-level military technology and you’re a Southeast Asian country you’ve either got to go to Moscow or you’ve got to go Washington. And Washington hasn’t made it terribly easy in recent years for a lot of these countries to obtain the best kit,” he told VOA.“And it’s also more expensive to buy it from Washington,” Greenlees said. “So Russia, for many of these countries, is the arms supplier of choice.”The big pictureThayer said Moscow also must act against any isolation spurred by sanctions and establish itself with Vietnam, with which it has always been a strategic partner, as a natural conduit in developing relations in Southeast Asia, but Laos  “is just one small peg in the larger picture.”Greenlees said Russia’s regional reemergence was still in its early days but from a big-picture geopolitical point of view, it’s the Sino-Russian alignment that concerns everyone.So far,  China has not complained about Russia’s push into its traditional sphere of influence.  Moreover, it also could benefit from potential sales to countries alienated by the U.S. linkage of sales to issues like human rights, which analysts said could lead to a stronger alliance between Moscow and Beijing in Southeast Asia.    “If that leads to a hardening of East-West ‘camps,’ that would be a concern to the region. It could force the issue of ‘taking sides and reduce the opportunities for small to medium sized powers to play the great powers off against each other,” Greenlees said.  
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