Members of the Ukrainian community in Australia hold daily protests and raise funds as they stand in solidarity with compatriots under attack by Russian forces.

Since the invasion, St. Andrew’s Ukrainian Catholic Church in Sydney has become a beacon of prayer and pride.

Most members of the congregation have friends and family living in Ukraine.  

The Reverend Simon Ckuj, a Melbourne-born priest, says even in troubled times, forgiveness is vital.

“Despite the darkness that is overshadowing us, we must always focus on the light, and this is where the Church plays such an important role — to help people, to guide them through these difficult times. I, too, feel rage. I, too, feel, you know, at times, even hatred, I dare say, to those who are committing these things, but that is what they want us to feel,” said Ckuj.  

Teresa Huzij is a second-generation Ukrainian Australian. Her grandparents immigrated to Australia after World War II. 

Every day, she says, she is messaging relatives in Ukraine, sending her support.

“Ukrainians have always been and will always be free, because that is who we are,” she said.

Australia has imposed sanctions on hundreds of Russian politicians, including President Vladimir Putin and military officials.

Canberra has also spent $50 million (USD) on weaponry and ammunition for Ukrainian forces.

The Ukrainian community has also raised money to send aid.

Olexa Matiouk’s parents moved to Australia when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union. His grandparents and cousins still live there.

He welcomes Australia’s help for the Ukrainian people.

“The support that the Australian government is providing is very good to see — the fact that they are providing both military and humanitarian support. Originally, they were only considering humanitarian support, but I think that they can see that Ukrainians are fighting for themselves and that they are not going to collapse like Putin was expecting, and to see that military support shows a sign of solidarity,” Matiouk said. 

Australia said Friday it would join the United States and Britain in banning imports of Russian oil.  

Australia is not a major importer of Russian energy resources, but a spokesperson for Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the additional sanction would “collectively curtail Russia’s revenue and ability to finance Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unjustified war against Ukraine.”
…

Finland’s much-delayed Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor started test production on Saturday, operator TVO said, delivering power to the national grid, which over time is expected to reduce the need for electricity imports and lead to lower prices.

Plagued by technological problems that became the subject of lawsuits, the 1.6 gigawatt (GW) reactor had originally been scheduled to open in 2009. It is Finland’s first new nuclear plant in more than four decades, and Europe’s first in almost 15 years.

Olkiluoto 3 started test production at just over 0.1 gigawatt, a small fraction of its capacity, with a ramp-up to full, regular electricity output planned by the end of July.  

“OL3 significantly improves Finland’s electricity self-sufficiency and helps in achieving carbon neutrality goals,” operator Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) said in a statement.

Once fully operational, it is expected to meet 14% of Finland’s electricity demand, reducing the need for imports from Russia, Sweden and Norway.

“Olkiluoto 3 will decrease Finland’s import dependency and it will become a cheaper price zone,” Aurora Energy Research economist Alexander Esser told Reuters.

Finland’s net imports of power averaged 13 terawatt hours (TWh) over the last few years, which should drop to 5-8 TWh by 2025 with Olkiluoto 3 in operation, Esser said.

Nuclear power remains controversial in Europe, with some countrie, such as Germany, phasing out reactors amid safety concerns. Others, including France and Britain, are discussing new developments.

TVO is owned by Finnish utility Fortum and smaller energy and forestry firms.

Finland is the only Nordic country with a large power deficit, said Marius Holm Rennesund, a partner at Oslo-based consultancy Thema.

Thema predicts that Finnish wholesale power prices will drop to 60 euro per megawatt hour (MWh) in 2023 from a predicted average of 70 euro/MWh in 2022, although the expected reduction will also come from lower gas prices.

In 2024, Finnish wholesale power prices will likely fall further to 45 euros/MWh, Rennesund said.
…

Up to the final hours before Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, former chancellor Angela Merkel had been touted as the person favored by Germans to try to talk President Vladimir Putin out of the conflict.

But as Russian bombs fell on Ukrainian cities, a shadow has fallen on Merkel’s 16 years in office, with some observers now questioning if her detente policies with Putin had in fact left Germany, and Europe, vulnerable.

Once hailed as the leader of the free world, the veteran center-right leader has been accused by some of increasing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy and neglecting Germany’s defense in what appeared to be a devastating miscalculation of Putin’s ambitions.

Merkel’s push for diplomacy and bids to bind regimes to treaties and business contracts now look like “an error”, conservative daily Die Welt, long critical of Merkel, charged.

“What Germany and Europe have experienced over the last days is nothing short of a reversal of Merkel’s policies of guaranteeing peace and freedom through treaties with despots,” it wrote.

Over the last decade, Germany’s energy reliance on Russia rose from 36% of its total gas imports in 2014 to 55% currently, with the deal for the controversial Nord Stream 2 signed after the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

That has left Germany nearly helpless to follow allies like the United States and impose an oil and gas embargo against Russia.

And Germany’s defense profile had been blunted by successive years of under-investment. That has drawn the ire of the United States and allies which have repeatedly pressed Europe’s biggest economy to meet the NATO defense spending target of 2% of national output.

One of Merkel’s closest aides and former defense minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, has condemned Germany’s “historical failure” to bolster its military over the years.

“After Georgia, Crimea, and Donbas, we have not prepared anything that would have really deterred Putin,” she tweeted, referring to incursions carried out by Russia while Merkel was in power.

‘Terrible mistake’

Merkel took power in 2005 after beating Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder at the polls.

Schroeder himself has been pilloried for his friendship with Putin, and his refusal to quit key posts at Russian energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom.

But her critics say that while Schroeder had started the ball rolling on Nord Stream 1, a pipeline funneling Russian gas to Germany, Merkel signed off on Nord Stream 2.

The controversial $11-billion pipeline is disputed because it bypasses Ukraine, depriving Kyiv of gas transit fees. It has been put on ice in the wake of the invasion.

Merkel “must take her share of the blame with her eagerness to seek close economic ties to Russia” as it led to Germany’s dependency on Russian energy, Sueddeutsche daily concluded.

“We are now seeing the consequences of that terrible mistake,” it said.

On the geopolitical front, her government’s reluctance in admitting Georgia and Ukraine to the NATO fold in 2008 — despite a push by Washington — was now also under scrutiny.

‘Limits’

Joerg Forbrig, director for central and eastern Europe at the German Marshall Fund, rejected the notion that Merkel may have been too naive about the Kremlin boss.

“She had a pretty good appreciation of who Vladimir Putin is and what Russia is today,” he said.

But she had made her decisions in the face of pressure from her coalition partners during 12 out of 16 years — the Social Democrats — who favored closeness with Russia, he said. 

A business lobby that sought economic ties with Russia and Germany’s need to find alternative energy sources as it wound down nuclear power plants were also part of the considerations.

“All these cross pressures didn’t really allow her to implement a Russia policy that would have been commensurate with the problem that Russia is,” said Forbrig.

Marina Henke, professor of international relations at the Hertie School, said keeping her coalition together had been crucial for Merkel, “a bridge-builder” not known for lofty visions but who favored step-by-step progress.

“She was much more thinking about… how can I make things better in the next one, two years,” said Henke.

While the analysts noted that she made a clear mistake over energy, they believe that the Russia question would not lead to a rewrite of her overall political legacy, and that she would still be credited for steering Germany through a multitude of crises and for keeping the EU together. 

For Henke this is because the responsibility of the SPD far outweighs Merkel’s in Germany’s past stance towards Russia.

“If you don’t know Germany and think that the chancellor or the head of state is omnipotent, then it might come across like (Merkel’s to blame). But if you’re German… then you know… it’s basically a major mistake of the SPD.”

Forbrig pointed to a meeting when Merkel told Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya “not to overestimate” how much she could help because the leeway she is working with is “much more limited than many people think.”

“She had an acute understanding of the limits of her power,” he said. 
…

When Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis took the floor in a parliament debate on Ukraine this month, there was no doubt which side his government was taking in the conflict.

“There can be no equal distances. You are either with peace and international law, or against them,” he told lawmakers, after announcing a shipment of medicine and lethal aid to Ukraine.

“We were always on the right side of history, and we are doing the same now,” the PM said.

But for many Greeks, after centuries of existential, religious and cultural ties with Russia, the choice is not as evident.

“Greek public opinion has a Russophile dimension, friendly feelings linked to history, a common culture based on Orthodoxy and for some, mistrust towards the West,” notes Nikos Marantzidis, professor of Balkan, Slavic and Oriental Studies at the University of Macedonia.

A post-invasion poll in February showed 20% of Greeks are “closer” to Russia while 45% support Ukraine.

Just 8% said they would boycott Russian products, and 2% said they would avoid contact with Russians.

About 75% of respondents condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stance, but more than 60% were also critical of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Kappa Research poll showed.

Putin ‘a great leader’

“There is a minority, not an insignificant one, that continues to view Putin positively,” Marantzidis said.

“Whatever happens, a hard core of (about 10-15% of the electorate) will continue to see him as a great leader,” he told AFP.

Greeks have fought alongside Russia since the 18th century, with the fellow Orthodox state historically seen as a protector and powerful counterweight to regional rival Turkey.

In 1827, Russia joined Britain and France in the decisive naval battle of Navarino that effectively decided Greece’s independence from the Ottoman Empire.

Marantzidis also notes residual anti-Western feelings in Greece over a near-decade of austerity cuts imposed by Germany and other EU states in return for debt rescue bailouts.

And memories of NATO’s bombing of fellow Orthodox Serbians in 1999 during the Kosovo war are still raw, he adds.

Russians are also a prized demographic for Greece’s tourism industry, with hundreds of thousands visiting annually.

Just a year ago, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was among the guests of honor in Athens’ celebrations of the bicentenary of the Greek 1821 revolution.

Twelve months later, relations with Moscow are frosty and thousands of Greeks have joined anti-war protests alongside Ukrainians living in Greece.

‘Threats and insults’

The Russian Embassy in Athens this week expressed concern about “threats and insults” towards its nationals in Greece and called on the police to investigate.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias was among the last heads of diplomacy to see Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov just days before the Feb. 24 invasion.

But the deaths of nearly a dozen ethnic Greeks in Ukraine, members of a historic community of over 100,000 dating back to the 18th century, dealt a blow to relations.

Athens blamed Russian air strikes for the killings, but Moscow denied its forces were responsible and blamed Ukraine.

On Feb. 27, the Russian Embassy in Athens said Greek politicians and media should “come to their senses” and should stop parroting “anti-Russian propaganda.”

The Greek foreign ministry has condemned such language as undiplomatic, and government spokesperson Yiannis Economou fired back on Tuesday: “Nobody can sow dissent among us in any way.”

“Greeks are not historically naive or forgetful to be swayed by external voices,” Economou said.

On the Russian Embassy’s Facebook page, pro-Russian Greeks and Ukraine supporters trade insults daily.

Most express shock towards the Russian onslaught and attacks against civilian targets and call for an end to hostilities. More than 7,000 Ukrainian refugees have so far fled to Greece.

“Your people resisted and beat the Nazis, now you are walking in their footsteps,” said user Leila Rosaki. 

But many remain defiantly pro-Putin.

“Putin will be remembered and go down in history as a great and worthy leader,” writes Stelios Markou.

“Bravo, chase them all the way to Germany like before,” applauded Ilias Karavitis.

“Zelenskyy is begging Europe and NATO to get involved, he is trying to start World War III. Pray that he shuts up,” opined Nelli Ign.

“May God protect President Putin and all the Russians fighting for freedom,” said Thiresia Sakel.
…

Western analysts were surprised this week when the European Union’s foreign policy chief was quoted by China as having described that country as “a peace-loving superpower.” Officials in Brussels insist that he never said it.

The quote appeared in a statement put out by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Tuesday following talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and EU Vice President Josep Borrell, who has been responsible for foreign and security policy in the 27-member bloc since December 2019.

Borrell was quoted as having told his Chinese counterpart that “China is a peace-loving superpower. [We] hope China will play a relevant role to encourage and enable cease-fire [in the Ukraine conflict] and push and promote the parties of conflict to step on a path of negotiation and political solution.”

Western analysts such as Stuart Lau, the EU-China correspondent for Politico Europe, promptly called attention to the quote.

But when contacted by VOA, the EU press office in Washington suggested that the quote had been manufactured by China, which stands accused of parroting a number of Russian false statements about its two-week-old invasion of Ukraine.

Borrell, whose official title is high representative of the union for foreign affairs and security policy and vice president of the EU Commission, “never called China a ‘peace-loving superpower,’ ” said a statement provided by the press office and attributed to “an EU official.”

“We are only very well aware about their [China’s] aggressive approach in South China Sea or internally,” the statement said. “This is apparently somebody trying to put word[s] in his [Borrell’s] mouth.”

The message Borrell meant to convey, the EU statement added, was “to appeal on China’s declared commitment to multilateralism and respect of UN Charter and for China to live up to these commitments [and] to deliver its contribution to stability and security in the world; in this case to use its influence (both in Moscow and in the U.N. Security Council) and stop [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.”

Even before the latest fuss, Borrell had excited comment on social media by suggesting that no country was better positioned than China to pursue a negotiated end to the fighting in Ukraine.

“It has to be China,” he was quoted as having told the Spanish newspaper El Mundo.

“There’s no alternative. We [Europeans] cannot be the mediator, that is clear. … And it cannot be the U.S., either. Who else?”

While several analysts agreed that China has an important role to play in ending the war, others argued that China’s robust support for the invasion to date should disqualify it from any mediation role.

Beijing “is very much part of the problem from the get-go,” said Kevin Carrico, a lecturer on China at Monash University in Australia, in a phone interview with VOA. He described the notion of relying on Beijing to solve the crisis as reflecting an inability to see Chinese leaders as who they really are.
…

President Joe Biden on Friday announced that the U.S. will seek to revoke “most favored nation” (MFN) status for Russia. If approved by Congress, the move effectively ends normal trade relations between the two countries and allows the administration to impose new tariffs and sanctions in response to the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Biden is making the move in coordination with the Group of Seven countries (G-7) and the European Union, marking further escalation of economic pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“As Putin continues his merciless assault, the United States and our allies and partners continue to work in lockstep to ramp up the economic pressures on Putin and to further isolate Russia on the global stage,” Biden said in remarks from the White House as he outlined steps designed to “squeeze Putin and hold him even more accountable for his aggression against Ukraine.”

MFN status is given based on the non-discrimination principle enacted by 164 members of the World Trade Organization. WTO members commit to treating each other equally so everyone can benefit from lower tariffs, fewer trade barriers and higher import quotas.

Taking away MFN formally allows Western allies to increase import tariffs or impose quotas on Russian goods, or even ban them, restrict services out of the country and potentially sidestep Russian intellectual property rights. To enact it they must do so in accordance with their own national laws, which in the United States requires the approval of Congress.

In the U.S., MFN status is also referred to as permanent normal trade relations. Biden is likely to find bipartisan support in Congress as American lawmakers have already begun efforts to review and reduce trade relations with Moscow. Earlier this week a bipartisan group of lawmakers proposed legislation that if passed would ban imports of Russian energy into the United States and suspend normal trade relations with Russia and its ally, Belarus. The bill was on hold as the White House asked for more time to get allies on board.

Economic impact

Following U.S. sanctions applied to Moscow in 2014 to punish Putin for his annexation of Crimea, the vast majority of Russian exports to the U.S. are oil and gas. Washington had already announced a ban on Russian energy imports ahead of Friday’s announcement, which means stripping MFN may not affect much of the remaining bilateral trade.

The move is mostly about isolating Russia as much as possible in all international fora, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, told VOA. “It’s not that this is ‘symbolic only’, but the effect on it is far less than U.S. oil sanctions or the financial sanctions imposed,” he said.

EU’s stripping of Russia’s MFN status will have a more significant impact as the bloc trades much more with Russia. But as the EU is also winding down energy imports from Russia, Kirkegaard pointed out, there may not be much non-energy sector left to punish. He said taking away Moscow’s MFN status also means that non-MFN tariffs will apply, which often is not much different from MFN levels.

Ending MFN would also be much more impactful if the West can galvanize more countries to join, said Claude Barfield, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, speaking with VOA. The Biden administration is already pushing for a broader coalition of WTO members beyond the G-7 to announce their revocation of Russia’s MFN status.

An important question will be whether Russia retaliates by banning G-7 exports to Russia.

“If so, Russia would ironically be helping isolate itself further and reduce trade with the West,” Kirkegaard said.

In addition to stripping Moscow’s MFN status, the U.S. is also banning imports of goods from several signature sectors of the Russian economy, including seafood, vodka and diamonds. The G-7 is also trying to deny Russia the ability to borrow from leading multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Unlike the ban on Russian oil imports which affect what Americans must pay at the gas pump, the impact of further limiting trade with Moscow on the U.S. economy is likely very limited due to the small amount of trade affected.

Companies take action

Beyond steps taken by Western governments, multinational companies are also reexamining their ties with Moscow. Under pressure from stakeholders, many companies including Starbucks, McDonalds, Coca-Cola and Nike have shut down operations and ended sales. Financial entity Goldman Sachs is winding down its investments in Russia, while energy companies including Shell, BP and Exxon Mobil Corp. are reducing business ventures there.

Barfield said these actions hit the Russian psyche more than its economy as they negate Kremlin propaganda that the invasion is intended to liberate Ukraine from Nazi oppressors. “It’s a way of showing the Russian consumers that something else is involved here,” he said.

Moscow is planning retaliatory steps against companies leaving the country. Earlier this week, Putin said he would find legal ways to seize the assets of these international firms by introducing “external management.” The Russian economic ministry said it could take temporary control of some of these departing businesses.
…

Hassan Al-Khalaf, 11, clung to hope when he trekked across Ukraine by himself, safely reaching Slovakia after joining the masses of refugees escaping Russia’s invasion of their country.

Hassan arrived in Slovakia in early March, drawing wide media attention after local police posted his story on their Facebook page, calling him a hero after his long journey by train and on foot from Zaporizhzhia in southeast Ukraine.

“I got my hope from my mom wanting me to go,” Hassan said in an interview before appearing as a guest at a pro-Ukraine demonstration in the Slovak capital in Bratislava on Friday.

“My hope carried me on my way,” he said through an interpreter.

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation.”

Hassan’s widowed mother could not leave his grandmother at home, so she sent the boy off alone on the trip of more than 1,000 km to Slovakia, where his older brother studies. He arrived with nothing but a plastic bag, passport and a phone number written on his hand.

“This brings tears to our eyes. This is the biggest hero of last night,” Slovak police wrote on March 5 after Hassan appeared at the border crossing.

Hassan is one of more than 2.5 million refugees who have fled Ukraine, mostly to Poland, but also Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, to reach the European Union.

At least 176,000 have crossed Slovakia’s border in an exodus that the United Nations has called the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.

“I want to say a big thank you to the volunteers, because they are helping people they don’t even know,” said Hassan, who is hopeful of seeing his mother again.

“I believe that there will be a happy end.”
…

Western nations chastised Russia on Friday for trying to use the U.N. Security Council to spread disinformation and lies about alleged biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine, which the U.N. said are untrue.

“The United Nations is not aware of any biological weapons programs,” U.N. High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu told council members regarding Ukraine.

She said biological weapons have been outlawed since the Biological Weapons Convention came into force in 1975. Both Ukraine and Russia are parties to the convention.

Nakamitsu urged both countries to make use of measures within the convention to address any concerns.

Russia’s envoy spoke for nearly 20 minutes during Friday’s council meeting, alleging without evidence that Ukraine, funded by the U.S. military, is developing biological weapons in at least 30 laboratories across the country.

Deployed by birds, bats

He said lethal pathogens for plague, cholera and other diseases would then be deployed using migratory birds, bats, and even possibly fleas and lice.

“Currently, according to our Ministry of Defense, the Kyiv regime, according to the request of their Western mentors, are trying to clean it all up to make sure that the Russian side does not find direct evidence that the United States and Ukraine are violating Article 1 of the Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention,” Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the council.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Russia’s allegations in a video address on Thursday, saying, “No one is developing any chemical or any other weapons of mass destruction” in Ukraine.

“I will say this once: Ukraine does not have a biological weapons program,” U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said. “There are no Ukrainian biological weapons laboratories supported by the United States — not near Russia’s border or anywhere.”

She said that Kyiv has its own public health laboratory infrastructure that works on detecting and diagnosing diseases such as COVID-19.

“The United States has assisted Ukraine to do this safely and securely. This is work that has been done proudly, clearly and out in the open. This work has everything to do with protecting the health of people. It has absolutely nothing — absolutely nothing — to do with biological weapons,” Thomas-Greenfield said.

She noted with concern that Moscow’s motive for calling Friday’s meeting could be to lay the ground for a false flag operation in Ukraine.

“We have serious concerns that Russia may be planning to use chemical or biological agents against the Ukrainian people,” she said.

“The intent behind these lies seems clear, and it is deeply troubling. We believe Russia could use chemical or biological agents for assassinations, as part of a staged or false flag incident, or to support tactical military operations,” she said Friday, echoing U.S. lawmakers’ and defense officials’ remarks this week.

Thomas-Greenfield and other council members noted that Russia has long maintained a biological weapons program in violation of international law.

“Let us remember the obvious: It is Russia, not Ukraine, that has used chemical weapons on European soil in recent years,” French Ambassador Nicolas de Riviere said. “It is also Russia that is trying to cover up the Syrian regime’s chemical attacks through disinformation.”

In 2018, Russian agents used Novichok, a nerve agent, on British soil against former Russian spy Sergey Skripal and his daughter, Yulia. They both survived. Two years later, Moscow used the same nerve agent in Russia against opposition figure Aleksey Navalny. He is currently in a Russian jail.

“We do not sit in this chamber to be an audience for Russia’s domestic propaganda,” British Ambassador Barbara Woodward said. “And we should not allow Russia to abuse its permanent seat to spread disinformation and lies and pervert the purpose of the Security Council.”

Reports of cluster munitions

U.N. political chief Rosemary DiCarlo told the council that the U.N. human rights office has received credible reports of Russian forces using cluster munitions in populated areas of Ukraine.

“Indiscriminate attacks, including those using cluster munitions, which are of a nature to strike military objectives and civilians or civilian objects without distinction, are prohibited under international humanitarian law,” she said. “Directing attacks against civilians and civilian objects, as well as so-called area bombardment in towns and villages, are also prohibited under international law and may amount to war crimes.”

She said the need for negotiations to end the war could not be more urgent.

The World Health Organization says it has verified 30 attacks on health care facilities and workers, causing at least 12 deaths and 34 injuries.
…

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis heads to Turkey Sunday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan amid rising tensions between the neighboring countries. As Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul, the escalating tensions have already claimed victims.
…

Russian officials have been shifting their explanations in the past two days about why their forces struck a maternity hospital in the besieged Ukrainian seaport of Mariupol, one of more than a dozen health care facilities to have been attacked since Russia launched its invasion of its neighbor.

Midweek, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told a news agency that Russian forces “do not fire on civilian targets.” Later, as international criticism over the bombing mounted, Peskov appeared to adopt a more defensive line saying Moscow will seek information from the Russian military about the incident.

“We will certainly ask our military about this, since we don’t have clear information about what happened there. And the military are very likely to provide some information,” he told reporters at a news briefing in the Russian capital.

The next day, Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters in Turkey, shortly after concluding peace talks with his Ukrainian counterpart, that Mariupol’s maternity hospital was a legitimate target because Ukrainian militiamen had seized it and “expelled” all the patients and doctors long ago.

In a coordinated effort, Russian embassies around the world have been echoing Lavrov’s contention on social media platforms, describing the hospital as a legitimate military target. “The truth is that the maternity hospital has not worked since the beginning of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine,” tweeted Russia’s embassy in Israel. “The doctors were dispersed by militants of the Azov nationalist battalion,” it added.

But the photograph the embassy posted to show where the Ukrainian militiamen are based was geolocated by investigators affiliated with Bellingcat, an investigative journalism group, as being 10 kilometers away from the maternity hospital.

The bombing — in which three people including a child were killed and 17 people injured — has drawn fierce international criticism with the United Nations Secretary General describing it as “horrific.”

But Western diplomats and independent analysts, including former generals who have followed Russian war tactics in Syria, say that while they are horrified by the strike, they aren’t surprised by the targeting of the Mariupol hospital and Russian strikes on 18 other clinics so far in Ukraine, all documented by the World Health Organization.

They say Russia has a history of bombing of hospitals as a tactic of war, notably in Syria, with the aim of demoralizing opponents and weakening the will of civilians. Michael Clarke, former director-general of Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank in London, told Sky News: “It’s an attempt to create terror in the population and to break civilian morale. In Mariupol, they just want the city to give in.”

Physicians for Human Rights, a U.S.-based advocacy group, which has been documenting attacks on health care facilities stretching back to 2011 in Syria by Russian and Syrian government warplanes, say striking at hospitals has been a defining feature of the war in Syria.

“As a strategy of war, it is effective. It is also illegal,” the non-profit group says. “Syria is among the worst examples of targeting medical care as a weapon of war, with hundreds of attacks on hospitals and medical facilities since 2011, and nearly 900 medical personnel who have been killed.”

Action on Armed Violence, a British NGO monitoring and researching the causes and consequences of weapon-based violence, says attacks on hospitals” have been a consistent and devastating feature of Russia’s air campaign in Syria, and this inhumane tactic is now being seen in Ukraine.”

The pace of the targeting of health care facilities in Syria has been roughly consistent throughout, say analysts. But there have been notable upticks ahead of ground offensives, as well as before cease-fire and peace talks, they add.

In July and August of 2019, just as a ground offensive by Bashar al-Assad’s Russian-backed forces was ramping up, 40 health care facilities were struck in the northwest province of rebel-held Idlib. The hospital-targeting airstrikes coincided with a wide bombing and shelling campaign of civilian infrastructure, which left more than 800 civilians dead and hundreds more wounded in what U.N. officials at the time described as a “scorched-earth tactic.”

What especially alarmed U.N. officials was that the GPS coordinates of the hospitals and clinics in Idlib had been shared by them with the Syrian government and the Russian defense ministry to try to ensure the hospitals would remain safe. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres ordered an inquiry into the attacks with the aim to establish whether the coordinates provided by the U.N. to Russia had been used to target the hospitals.

“The most dangerous place to be in Idlib is a hospital,” wrote visiting British surgeon David Nott in 2019. “That is the chilling fact I was told by doctors when I was in northern Syria teaching surgeons how to treat blast injuries and gunshot wounds,” he wrote on his return to Britain.

To avoid being struck, many health care professionals in Idlib copied what counterparts in the neighboring war-struck province of Aleppo learned to do in 2014 and 2015 — open underground, improvised facilities and relocate them frequently.
…

The U.N. Security Council will hold an emergency meeting Friday on alleged manufacture of biological weapons in Ukraine at the request of Moscow, whose credibility on chemical weapons was questioned during a session on Syria.

Russia on Thursday accused the United States of funding research into the development of biological weapons in Ukraine, which has faced an assault by tens of thousands of Russian troops since Feb. 24.

Both Washington and Kyiv have denied the allegations, with the United States saying they were a sign that Moscow could soon use the weapons itself.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Russia’s allegations in a video address on Thursday, saying, “No one is developing any chemical or any other weapons of mass destruction” in Ukraine.

Western states have charged that Russia is employing a ruse by accusing their opponents and the United states of developing biological and chemical weapons to lay the ground for their possible use in Ukraine — something Moscow has been accused of doing in Syria.

At a monthly Security Council meeting on the use of chemical weapons in Syria — a case that remains unresolved and continues to suffer from a U.N.-denounced lack of information from Damascus — both Washington and London raised Ukraine.

“The Russian Federation has repeatedly spread disinformation regarding Syria’s repeated use of chemical weapons,” the deputy U.S. envoy to the U.N., Richard Mills, said.

“The recent web of lies that Russia has cast in an attempt to justify the premeditated and unjustified war it has undertaken against Ukraine, should make clear, once and for all, that Russia also cannot be trusted when it talks about chemical weapon use in Syria.”

Mills’ U.K. counterpart, James Kariuki, denounced Moscow’s attack on Ukraine and said the “parallels with Russian action in Syria are clear.”

“Regrettably, the comparison also extends to chemical weapons, as we see the familiar specter of Russian chemical weapons disinformation raising its head in Ukraine.”

In 2018, Moscow accused the United States of secretly conducting biological weapons experiments in a laboratory in Georgia, another former Soviet republic that, like Ukraine, has ambitions to join NATO and the European Union.

The Security Council meeting Friday is slated to begin at 11 a.m. (1600 GMT). 
…

Beijing is controlling messaging on the war in Ukraine, analysts and observers say, as social media companies and traditional Chinese state media outlets have been suppressing voices critical of Russia’s invasion. 

On February 22, Horizon News, an affiliate of China’s state-owned Beijing News, accidentally posted on Weibo, the Chinese Twitter, censorship instructions related to posts on the Russia-Ukraine war. 

“Do not post anything unfavorable to Russia or pro-Western,” the now deleted directive said. “If using hashtags, only use those started by People’s Daily, Xinhua, or CCTV.” 

During an opening speech in Beijing last Friday, Andrew Parsons, the president of the International Paralympic Committee, commented on the war in Ukraine without naming specific countries. “I am horrified at what is taking place in the world right now. The 21st century is a time for dialogue and diplomacy, not war and hate,” he said.  

The China Central Television (CCTV) interpreter, however, did not translate that portion of his remarks during the broadcast. 

Last weekend, Chinese video streaming company iQiyi Sports refused to broadcast English Premier League matches because of the league’s planned shows of support for Ukraine. 

According to Carl Minzner, senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, since the signing of the February 4 joint statement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Leader Xi Jinping, Chinese foreign policy “has been locked into a pro-Russia” stance. 

“China’s top leader has personally tied his country to Russia. And that political orientation has set the tone for state media coverage of the Ukraine war in China itself,” Minzner told VOA. “Deviation from that stance, criticizing it, or even merely pointing out the horrific consequences of Russia’s war to civilians, risks raising questions about Xi’s own decision to support Russia so strongly at the outset.” 

Last week, while in Germany, Chinese TV celebrity Jin Xing criticized Putin and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through a posting on Weibo. 

“A crazy Russian man said: If I don’t continue to be president, I don’t want this world!” Jin, who has over 13 million followers on Weibo, said in her now deleted post. “Stop the war and pray for peace!” 

“I didn’t delete Weibo myself, it was blocked by the system!” she wrote after the online platform deleted her post. 

On March 1, Jin asked users critical of her opinions to use their real names. She has not posted comments on her Weibo account since. 

One Weibo user, Tao Wen, who has over half a million followers, commented on Jin’s post, saying, “The lives you respect do not include those who were massacred by the Ukrainian Nazis in eastern Ukraine,” a sentiment that echoes Putin’s justification for sending troops into the country.  

Nazis, however, are not currently in charge of Ukraine. Its leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is Jewish and has relatives who were killed in the Holocaust. 

On the website of Sina, the parent company of Weibo, an article was published Thursday about Jin’s deleted comment. The writer suggested that Jin’s career path in China “may not be as smooth as before” because of her post. 

Sina Weibo is not the only Chinese social media platform where voices “unfavorable to Russia” are censored. 

Wang Jixian, a Chinese citizen living in Ukraine since December, started posting on Chinese social media WeChat what he was learning from local Ukrainian news about the war. 

“So, I was posting and nicely asking people to correct me or to inform me about the reality if they believe they know much better,” Wang said. 

He soon discovered that his WeChat account had been blocked. 

“I got so much unnecessary stress from WeChat,” Wang told VOA in a phone interview on Monday. “This morning, I sent my parents (a WeChat message), ‘Hey, I’m safe’ and suddenly found I had been blocked.” 

Wang said he saw on Chinese social media stories about the war that were “completely opposite” to what he is seeing on Ukrainian media. 

According to Yaqiu Wang, a senior researcher on China at Human Rights Watch, since Beijing and Moscow are strategic allies, Beijing “prevents Chinese people from knowing the truth” about the conflict. 

“Information control has always been the foundation of the Chinese Communist Party’s rule of China,” Wang told VOA. “Without censorship and propaganda, without covering up its abuses and deceiving the public, the party simply wouldn’t be able to stay in power.” 

 
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President Joe Biden will announce Friday that, along with the European Union and the Group of Seven countries, the U.S. will move to revoke “most favored nation” trade status for Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

That’s according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview the announcement. The person said each country would have to follow its own national processes. Stripping most favored nation status from Russia would allow the U.S. and allies to impose tariffs on Russian imports, increasing the isolation of the Russian economy in retaliation for the invasion.

Biden’s move comes as bipartisan pressure has been building in Washington to revoke what is formally known as “permanent normal trade relations” with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed the U.S. and allies to take the action against Russia in remarks to Congress over the weekend. It follows days after the Biden moved to ban imports of Russian oil and gas products.

Biden, after initially slow-walking congressional efforts to take the trade action against Russia, was set to embrace lawmaker efforts to do just that on Friday.

The White House said Biden would speak Friday morning to announce “actions to continue to hold Russia accountable for its unprovoked and unjustified war on Ukraine.”

Monday, Democrats on the powerful House Ways & Means Committee posted, then removed, an announcement on a bipartisan bill to ban Russian oil imports and slap further trade sanctions on the country, according to an aide, because of pushback from the White House against acting before Biden had coordinated with allies and reached a decision on both matters. The House voted Wednesday on a narrower bill to ban Russian energy imports after Biden instituted the ban by executive order.

Canada was the first major U.S. ally to remove most favored nation status for Russia last week.

Biden’s action was first reported by Bloomberg News. 
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VOA News reporter Celia Mendoza visited the village of Medyka, in Poland, one of the busiest border crossings since the start of Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is what she saw.
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Washington on Thursday warned Moscow about what some observers describe as war crimes by Russian forces in Ukraine. U.S. officials say Russia is “turning to a strategy of laying waste to population centers” in Ukraine, as high-level talks between the warring parties made no progress.

“We’ve seen very credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians, which would under the Geneva Conventions constitute a war crime,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price, though he did not specifically accuse Russia of committing such crimes.

Russian President Vladimir “Putin’s plan to quickly capture Ukraine, it is clear now, has failed,” Price said of the two-week-old invasion. “So, he is now turning to a strategy of laying waste to population centers to try to break the will of the people of Ukraine, something he will not be able to do.”

Russia has denied targeting civilians in its invasion of Ukraine.

Vice President Kamala Harris said in Poland that she supported a United Nations inquiry into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that would look at “all alleged rights violations and abuses, and related crimes.”

Harris spoke before meeting in Warsaw with Polish President Andrzej Duda in a show of U.S. support for NATO’s allies in Eastern Europe.

“Absolutely, there should be an investigation, and we should all be watching,” she said.

Duda added, “It is obvious to us that in Ukraine, Russians are committing war crimes.”

On Wednesday, Amnesty International said an investigation it conducted into the March 3 Russian airstrike that reportedly killed 47 civilians in the city of Chernihiv concluded that the events there “may constitute a war crime.”

The global human rights group said interviews and video analysis indicated unguided aerial bombs known as “dumb bombs” were used to mostly target civilians standing in line for food.

Harris’ comments came one day after a Russian airstrike on a maternity hospital in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol killed at least three people, including a child, according to Ukrainian officials.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the hospital attack genocide and again called on NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, declaring, “You have power, but you seem to be losing humanity.”

Russia responded to allegations it bombed the hospital by calling it “fake news.” It said the building was a former maternity hospital that had long been taken over by troops.

“Russia has definitely been violating international law since the beginning of the aggression,” Ivana Stradner, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who researches international law, said via Skype. “We are seeing the killings of civilians. They’re using weapons that are contrary to international law. So certainly, there is numerous evidence that we can use to argue that Russia has been committing war crimes.”

She agreed with calls for an inquiry, but added, “I have to be very realistic about these things. I’m not very hopeful that we can hold Russia and Vladimir Putin accountable.”

The two bodies that prosecute war crimes, the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, are limited in what they can do, she explained.

War crimes cases are often referred to the international court by the U.N. Security Council, but Russia’s position as a permanent member of that council means it can easily veto such a referral.

Furthermore, Russia, Ukraine and the United States are not signatories to the statute that established the International Criminal Court, though Ukraine has accepted its jurisdiction. And finally, she said, these international courts don’t have their own police forces. They count on states to cooperate, which they do not always do.

War marches on

Ukrainian officials also said no progress was made Thursday during high-level talks in Turkey.

Speaking at a news conference at the conclusion of the talks, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he and his Russian counterpart made no progress toward negotiating a 24-hour cease-fire, adding it appeared Russia would continue its offensive until Ukraine surrendered, something he said Kyiv would not do.

“I want to repeat that Ukraine has not surrendered, does not surrender, and will not surrender,” Kuleba said.

Speaking separately, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia’s military operation was going according to plan and accused the West of “behaving dangerously” over Ukraine.

Lavrov said Russia was ready to resume talks and added Putin would not refuse a meeting with Zelenskyy to discuss “specific” issues. He blamed Western powers for the war, maintaining Russia was forced to invade Ukraine because the West had rejected “our proposal on security guarantees.”

U.S. President Joe Biden applauded Turkey’s “efforts to support a diplomatic resolution to the conflict” after a telephone call Thursday with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to a White House statement.

The Turkish initiative is among several diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the escalating conflict. Both Israel and France are hoping to find a solution through direct talks with Putin.

VOA’s Jamie Dettmer, Anita Powell and Cindy Saine contributed to this report.
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Praise for the way U.S. agencies secured and shared intelligence on Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine are being tempered by growing concern that one of the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns is starting to take hold in the United States and the West.

For days, officials at the White House, State Department and Pentagon have been pushing back against Moscow’s claims — increasingly repeated by far-right and far-left social media channels, as well as by some mainstream media in the United States — that Russian forces have found, and in some cases destroyed, Ukrainian biological weapons labs funded by the U.S.

“I’m fearful that this could be the new direction of a Russian false flag operation,” Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner, a Democrat, told top U.S. intelligence officials at a hearing Thursday.

The committee’s ranking Republican, Senator Marco Rubio, said the Russian accusation, combined with recent comments by some U.S. officials, have “got some people fired up.”

U.S. intelligence officials echoed their concerns, noting that while there are more than a dozen so-called biolabs in Ukraine, their work is focused on understanding and preventing pandemics and the spread of infectious disease, and nothing more.

“Let me be clear. We do not assess that Ukraine is pursuing either biological weapons or nuclear weapons … the propaganda that Russia is putting out,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the lawmakers.

Haines said that while Washington has in the past provided some assistance, it has been in the context of biosafety, and mirrors U.S. outreach to other countries that have similar medical research facilities.

“This influence campaign is completely consistent with long-standing Russian efforts to accuse the United States of sponsoring bioweapons work in the former Soviet Union,” Haines added.

The U.S. spy chief was equally blunt.

“Unlike Russia, which does have chemical weapons and has used them and has done biological research and has for years, Ukraine has neither,” Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns told the Senate panel.

The threat from biological research facilities, like the ones in Ukraine, “is in no way akin to the kind of threats that would be posed by weapons research and development,” Burns said.

Instead, Burns raised concern that Russia might be telegraphing one of its next moves in its now two-week-old invasion of Ukraine.

“This is something … that’s very much a part of Russia’s playbook,” he said. “They’ve used those weapons against their own citizens. They’ve at least encouraged the use in Syria and elsewhere, so it’s something that we take very seriously.”

Rumors about supposed U.S.-backed Ukrainian bioweapons facilities first began popping up months ago but appear to have started to gain traction among some U.S. and Western audiences in late February.

“You’re asking me about bioweapons sites in labs in Ukraine, and by my count there are more than 20,” Joe Oltmann, the co-host the Conservative Daily Podcast, told VOA this past Monday, after having debated the charge on his show the previous week.

“I promise you that the U.S. Department of Defense did not give somebody money for drywall to renovate it or couches,” he said.

Talk about such facilities seemed to gain additional momentum on Tuesday, after Rubio asked about the labs during a hearing by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“Ukraine has biological research facilities, which, in fact, we are now quite concerned Russian troops, Russian forces may be seeking to gain control of,” replied Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland.

“We are working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach,” she added.

Russian accounts and Russian-affiliated media seized on the comments, taking to social media to reinforce the narrative.

“The information received from various sources confirms the leading role of the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency in financing and conducting military biological research on the territory of Ukraine,” Russia’s Ministry of Defense posted on its English-language Telegram channel Thursday.

“It is highly likely that one of the objectives of the U.S. and its allies is to create bioagents capable of selectively targeting different ethnic populations,” the Russian ministry added.

The Pentagon on Wednesday rejected the allegations by Russia and others, calling them “absurd.”

“In the words of my Irish Catholic grandfather, it’s a bunch of malarkey,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters. “We are not, not developing biological or chemical weapons inside Ukraine.”

U.S. intelligence officials Thursday told lawmakers that contrary to the Kremlin’s accusations, the real danger from the labs comes if or when Russian troops capture the facilities.

The medical research labs “all have equipment or pathogens or other things that you have to have restrictions around because you want to make sure that they’re being treated and handled appropriately,” Haines said. “We have to be concerned the same way we have to be concerned about a nuclear power plant.”
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Twitter says it has created a version of its microblogging service that can be used by Russians despite the regular version of the service being restricted in the country.

The service will be available via a special “onion” URL on the darkweb that is accessible only when using a Tor browser.

Onion URLs and Tor have long been used by those seeking to work around censorship as well as those who are involved in illegal activities on the darkweb.

The announcement of the new site was made by a software engineer who does work for Twitter.

“This is possibly the most important and long-awaited tweet that I’ve ever composed.

“On behalf of @Twitter, I am delighted to announce their new @TorProject onion service,” wrote Alec Muffett.
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The United Nations estimates that with Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, more than 12 million Ukrainians inside their country and about 4 million refugees will need assistance in the coming months. Some New Yorkers are stepping in to help. Nina Vishneva has the story, narrated by Anna Rice. VOA footage by Natalia Latukhina.
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Acts of vandalism. Cancel culture. Financial hits. Putin’s war on Ukraine is causing problems for some Russians living in the United States. As VOA’s Veronica Balderas Iglesias reports, many oppose Moscow’s aggression and are speaking out for peace. Ihar Tsikhanenka contributed to this report.
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Ukraine is dominating a two-day European Union summit outside Paris, where leaders are discussing ways to cut their energy ties with Russia, shore up their defense, and consider Kyiv’s membership application.

The European Union is not following the United States in immediately banning imports of Russian oil and gas. But EU leaders, meeting at Versailles outside Paris, are looking to phase out the bloc’s energy reliance on Moscow as quickly as possible as part of a broader autonomy drive, including in European defense. 

Ahead of the summit, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte discussed the challenges.

“I would not plead to cut off our supplies of oil and gas today from Russia. It’s not possible, because we need the supply and that’s the uncomfortable truth. But we can do more to get the green agenda going, to decarbonize our economies, also making use of all the reforms in the European green package as we have agreed earlier,” Rutte said.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, has outlined a mix of measures in this direction that include cutting gas imports from Russia by two-thirds this year. 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the move in necessary as Moscow is using energy as a way to further its own goals.

“As you’ve seen Russia has instrumentalized energy over the past month, if not to say years, to put pressure — not only on Ukraine but also on the European Union. And we are now really determined to get out of the dependency of Russian gas,” von der Leyen said.

Sebastien Maillard of the Jacques Delors Institute, a Paris-based research group, says it’s also about European principles. 

“We are every day purchasing Russian gas and Russian coal and purchasing (funding) the war against Ukraine,” he said. 

The EU’s autonomy push could be a boon for renewable energy. But some fear the opposite, at least in the short term — that Europe could delay meeting ambitious climate goals by relying more on polluting energies like coal. That could be the case of Germany or Poland, for example, which are highly dependent on Russian oil and gas. 

Cushioning the fallout of sanctions against Russia will also be key. European consumers and businesses will be paying higher heating and other energy costs — something French President Emmanuel Macron warned his nation about last week. 

Analyst Martin Quencez of the German Marshall Fund says Europe must take robust measures to reduce the fallout. 

“If the EU response is not strong enough, this will affect our ability to vote [on] new sanctions in the coming weeks and months.” 

EU leaders will also examine applications by Ukraine as well as Georgia and Moldova to join the 27-member bloc — a process that, even if fast-tracked, could take years. 
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As Turkey and Israel take their biggest step in years toward reviving strained relations, some analysts say the two regional powers prefer going it alone in another diplomatic effort — trying to mediate a peaceful resolution of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog in Ankara on Wednesday, calling it a “historic visit that will be a turning point in relations” that have been strained for more than a decade. Herzog, who holds a largely ceremonial role, is the most senior Israeli official to visit Turkey since the last visit by an Israeli prime minister in 2008.

Speaking alongside Herzog, Erdogan told reporters he and the Israeli president “exchanged views about events in Ukraine” and expressed hope that their meeting will create new opportunities for bilateral and regional cooperation. He did not elaborate.

Herzog expressed appreciation to Erdogan for inviting the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers to meet jointly with Turkey’s top diplomat in Antalya on Thursday. The planned meeting will be the highest-level dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv since Russia invaded its neighbor on Feb. 24.

“The war in Ukraine is a humanitarian disaster, which is shocking the whole world,” Herzog said. “We cannot remain indifferent to such human suffering, and I welcome any endeavor that will lead to the end of the bloodshed.”

Herzog said Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and the government also are “doing their utmost on this matter.” Regarding Turkey’s mediation effort, he said “I pray for positive results.”

Bennett flew to Moscow on March 5 for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the only foreign leader known to have made the journey after Russia began its invasion, which has isolated Putin from the West.

The Israeli prime minister’s mediation effort also has involved regular contact with Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz through phone calls and WhatsApp messages, U.S. news site Axios reported on Wednesday.

There are no indications that Bennett and Erdogan have coordinated those diplomatic efforts, according to several international security analysts contacted by VOA. They also said Turkey and Israel have a variety of motivations to pursue their mediation bids separately.

Erdogan has been offering to support dialogue to resolve Russia-Ukraine tensions since at least April 2021, when he hosted Zelenskyy for talks in Istanbul as Kyiv raised alarm over Russia’s troop buildup near Ukraine’s border. The Turkish president later traveled to the Russian city of Sochi in September for talks with Putin.

Oxford University international relations scholar Samuel Ramani said Turkey began its mediation efforts last year as more of a messenger between Putin and Zelenksyy, but has now transitioned to more of a formal mediation role.

“Israel seems confined at this stage to being a messenger. So, Turkey is much further ahead in this regard, and that’s probably why Erdogan is not cooperating with Israel,” Ramani said.

Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based analyst for the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, said Erdogan also sees an opportunity as a Russia-Ukraine mediator to repair recent damage to Turkey’s relations with its Arab and Western partners and allies.

She said Turkey developed a reputation in some Arab states as a meddler in their affairs in recent years, while also incurring U.S. anger and sanctions for buying a Russian air defense system that Washington sees as undermining the NATO alliance of which Ankara is a member.

“If the Turks play a constructive role as a mediator and improve their international standing, I don’t see how that would be augmented by coordinating with the Israelis directly,” Notte said. “If anything, the Turks want to have the limelight for themselves rather than sharing it with another regional player,” she added.

Israel’s motivations for pursuing a solo mediation bid are different from Turkey’s, said Yaakov Amidror, an Israel-based analyst for the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

One of the motives is idealistic, he said. “In Israel, we see this war as a big tragedy that should be stopped.”

Unlike Turkey, Israel also has relatively few conflicting security interests with Russia and sees that as an advantage in being trusted as a messenger between Russia and Ukraine, Amidror added.

Another factor inhibiting coordination of Israeli and Turkish mediation efforts is that the political leaders of the two sides have only just started rebuilding trust after years of tensions, said analyst Gallia Lindenstrauss of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. The two nations withdrew ambassadors from their respective embassies in 2018 and have not said when they will return.

Notte said she believes Israel and Turkey would only see a benefit to cooperation as mediators if they calculate that it would heighten the chance of a positive outcome.

“But I’m not very hopeful for any kind of international mediation because I don’t believe Russia has made a strategic decision to back away from its maximalist demands,” Notte said. “It’s not so much to do with the abilities of Turkey and Israel as mediators, as it is with the calculus right now in the Russian government.” 
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Rich Russians are trying to shift some of their wealth from Europe to Dubai to shield assets from a tightening wave of Western sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, financial and legal sources said.

Dubai, the Gulf’s freewheeling financial and business hub, has long been a magnet for the globe’s ultra-rich and the United Arab Emirates’ refusal to take sides between Western allies and Moscow has signaled to Russians that their money is safe there.

The UAE, which over the years has deepened its ties with Russia, has not matched sanctions imposed by Western nations and its central bank has so far not issued guidance regarding Western sanctions.

In many cases, wealthy Russians are seeking to shift funds to Dubai that are now in Switzerland or London — which have both sanctioned Russian individuals and organizations, a senior banker at a large Swiss private bank and a lawyer familiar with the matter said.

The lawyer, who is based in Dubai, said his firm had received inquiries from Russian entities on how quickly they could move “very significant funds” worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the Gulf Arab state.

“The UAE is a nice medium — a few hours away by flight and doesn’t have a regulator completely in cahoots with Western regulators,” an investment management professional said.

The Dubai Media Office, UAE foreign ministry and central bank did not immediately respond to a query about the scale of Russian funds flowing into Dubai.

The senior private banker said in some cases, Russian clients with accounts at private banks were opening accounts with that same bank’s UAE branch. Others were opening accounts with local banks, the banker added.

Russians, facing a crumbling economy at home, are also looking to put their money in investments including real estate and buying into funds which do not disclose ownership information, another financial source said.

Dubai, a global tourism destination, has long been popular with Russians, who were among the top visitors to the emirate and purchasers of real estate even before the war and ensuing sanctions threw its economy into turmoil and its currency tumbled to record lows.

The UAE in 2018 introduced a “golden” visa program — which grants 10-year residency — to investors and other professionals.

Banks cautious

The UAE’s decision to abstain in a United Nations Security Council vote condemning the invasion, coupled with Gulf sovereign wealth funds maintaining their exposure to Russia, was taken as reassurance to wealthy Russians, the sources said.

There is no indication that the Russian wealth flowing to Dubai is subject to Western sanctions. However, bankers said there was a risk of reputational harm to institutions receiving Russian funds as multinationals around the world cut ties with Moscow.

Some major UAE banks are taking a cautious approach. Banks operating in the Gulf state have in the past been penalized for non-compliance with sanctions on countries including Iran and Sudan.

And global financial crime watchdog The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) last week put the UAE on a “grey list” of jurisdictions subject to increased monitoring.

“Being on the grey list, they (UAE) probably have to be more careful than normal. Now, the last thing they want is for Europe to use this as a further reason to keep them on this list,” the lawyer said.

The Dubai Media Office, UAE foreign ministry and central bank did not immediately respond to questions regarding guidance to banks and businesses on how to comply with sanctions on Russia, or on what protocols are in place should other countries request the seizure of any sanctioned assets, should they be in the UAE.

Two sources familiar with the matter said businesses in the UAE would spend more time looking into the origins of their funds through a so-called Know-Your-Customer process.

Wealth management

A source at a Dubai bank said that funds from Russians are not being accepted for wealth management, though they could set up deposit accounts.

“In principle, they can do it,” but the bank has high compliance hurdles to clear internally to accept Russian money, including evidence of where it came from, the source said.

The UAE’s nascent private wealth industry has not yet reached the scale or sophistication to fully absorb wealth stored in Switzerland and other traditional money shelters, sources said.

“They might take some, but I find it hard to imagine that they would take it all,” the investment management professional said. “It’s not just the servicing element, but the investment management which most of these banks lack.”
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Full developments of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine   
…

While soaring oil prices hit consumers worldwide, their misfortune means a fortune for others.

There will certainly be a “significant boost in government revenue” for some oil-producing African countries as oil prices hit their highest levels since 2008 after the U.S bans imports of Russian oil, the African Energy Chamber tells VOA.

“Nigeria, Angola, Libya, South Sudan, Gabon, the Congo and Ghana are going to see a significant boost in government revenue,” said Verner Ayukegba, senior vice president at Johannesburg-based African Energy Chamber.

However, he said, despite the economic breather for these African economies, most of the countries on the continent are heavily dependent on imports of refined products and will see their expenditures balloon.

“Countries like South Africa who are not producers but major economies who import crude oil to be able to refine for their industries, countries are going to see an increase in their import bills,” he said.

Skyrocketing crude oil prices and the rising cost of living on the continent also threaten to increase inflation, says Bala Zakka, a petroleum engineer based in Lagos, Nigeria.

“In Nigeria today, diesel has been deregulated. A liter of diesel goes for 450 Nigerian Naira ($1.08), and this is where you will appreciate the pains that Nigerians are going through,” Zakka said.

The oil analyst was unhappy that Africa’s most populous nation of 200 million people relies on imported refined products despite having the capacity to locally refine oil for domestic use like gas, diesel and kerosene.

Nigeria is the main oil producer in Africa and the largest crude oil exporter on the continent.

According to data from Statista, in 2020, Nigeria led the exports of crude oil from Africa. Overall, those exports amounted to about 5.4 million barrels per day in that year.

Meanwhile, the African Energy Chamber’s Ayukegba said that because of the uptick in oil prices globally, most African nations are likely to see more exploration for new oil and gas sources.

“Exploration spend is going to lead to much more oil and gas activities off the coast of Africa. The Gulf of Guinea for instance, and also in onshore locations,” he told VOA.

”There’s drilling going on in places like Namibia at the moment, where Total and Shell have come up with significant discoveries,” he added.
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