U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Wednesday that the United States would challenge Indian government export subsidies because they hurt American workers and manufacturers.

Lighthizer said he had requested “dispute settlement consultations” with the Indian government at the World Trade Organization because the subsidies allow India to sell goods at lower prices.

He said his office “will continue to hold our trading partners accountable by vigorously enforcing U.S. rights under our trade agreements and by promoting fair and reciprocal trade through all available tools, including the WTO.”

The announcement is the latest step in President Donald Trump’s trade offensive.The White House has announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminum as well as on imports of solar panels and washing machines.

Lighthizer’s office said India offers benefits valued at $7 billion annually to domestic exporters, such as duty, tax and fee exemptions. Producers of steel, information technology and textiles are among the recipients.

Consultations are the first step in WTO’s dispute settlement process, but Trump has said he does not favor resorting to dispute resolutions at the WTO, where he contends the United States is at a disadvantage.

The administration has instead concentrated efforts on tariffs and remedies as allowed under domestic U.S. law.
…

General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Volkswagen and Mercedes all knew of problems with dangerous exploding Takata air bag inflators years before issuing recalls, according to three class actions filed Wednesday with the federal court in Miami.

The lawsuits cite company documents obtained through previous legal actions against other automakers over faulty Takata inflators. The plaintiffs allege that automakers were informed of inflator defects during tests but delayed taking action. Allegations against GM are among the most serious. Takata documents showed that GM employees expressed concerns about inflators rupturing as early as 2003.

Messages were left Wednesday seeking comment from GM, VW and Mercedes. Fiat Chrysler declined comment, saying it had not been served with the lawsuit.

Takata uses the chemical ammonium nitrate to create small explosions to inflate air bags. But the chemical can deteriorate when exposed to high temperatures and airborne moisture. That causes it to explode with too much force, blowing apart a metal canister and hurling shrapnel. At least 22 people have died worldwide and more than 180 have been hurt.

The problem touched off the largest series of automotive recalls in U.S. history, with 19 automakers having to recall up to 69 million inflators in 42 million vehicles. The problem brought a criminal conviction and fine against Takata and forced the Japanese company into bankruptcy protection.

The lawsuits, which consolidate individual claims that were filed previously, allege that owners paid higher prices for their vehicles than they would have if the defect had been disclosed.

They allege that manufacturers picked Takata to supply inflators because the cost was less than other air bag makers who used different, less volatile chemicals as propellants. According to the lawsuits, manufacturers had employees who questioned the quality and performance of Takata’s inflators well before any vehicles were recalled.

“These auto manufacturers were well aware of the public safety risks posed by Takata’s airbags long ago, and still waited years to disclose them to the public and take action,” Peter Prieto, lead counsel for the plaintiffs, said in a statement. The lawsuits “are an important step forward in holding them accountable.”

Early concerns

In an April 2003 communication with Takata, GM was concerned about “ballistic variability,” which is a tendency for the air bags to either underinflate or explode when deployed, the lawsuit against GM said. A GM engineer raised concerns about inadequate testing, moisture control and the inability of Takata to meet GM specifications after a 2003 visit to Takata’s factory in Moses Lake, Washington, according to the lawsuit.

In 2004, Takata employees met with GM officials about a tendency for the inflators to shoot flames when they ruptured, and in March of 2006, Takata reported that inflators tested for GM vehicles continued to show “aggressive behavior,” including the escape of “molten propellant” when they ruptured. A Takata employee admitted “we cannot get good results” with the inflator design, the lawsuit stated.

Yet GM didn’t issue any recalls until June of 2014 when it recalled 29,000 Chevrolet Cruze compact cars from the 2013 and 2014 model years, according to the lawsuit. That recall came after Takata reported three exploding inflators in 2010. “Defendants did nothing to meaningfully investigate the problem, notify the appropriate regulators or notify the class [car owners],” the lawsuit stated.

GM also received reports of real-world problems in 2011 and 2014, including one case in which a Cruze driver was blinded in one eye by an exploding inflator, according to the lawsuit. GM and Takata blamed the trouble on a manufacturing problem instead of the deteriorating ammonium nitrate. “Rather than publicize the truth, both Takata and New GM blamed the ruptures on a manufacturing problem,” the lawsuit alleged.

Old GM, the company that existed before seeking bankruptcy protection in 2009, knew of the problems, and New GM, the company that emerged from bankruptcy, kept employees who knew and had the same knowledge, according to the lawsuit.

More recalls

Volkswagen, the lawsuit alleged, had repeated quality issues with Takata dating to 2003, even rejecting products after an audit. Yet no recalls were issued until 2016, the plaintiffs claimed. Daimler AG, maker of Mercedes-Benz vehicles, had concerns about the integrity of Takata inflators in 2003, according to company emails. In 2004, Mercedes engineers agreed to “forego key performance variables” and allow use of Takata inflators, the lawsuit stated. The company didn’t do any recalls until 2016.

Fiat Chrysler didn’t issue its first recall until 2014, even though its engineers expressed concerns about Takata inflators during the early 2000s, the lawsuit stated.

Last year Toyota, BMW, Mazda, Subaru, Nissan and Honda settled similar economic loss class actions for millions of dollars.
…

Behind the U.S. move to block Singapore-based Broadcom’s hostile bid for U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm lies a new global struggle for influence over next-generation communications technology — and fears that whoever takes the lead could exploit that advantage for economic gain, theft and espionage.

In the Broadcom-Qualcomm deal, the focus is on so-called “5G” wireless technology, which promises data speeds that rival those of landline broadband now. Its proponents insist that 5G, the next step up from the “4G” networks that now serve most smartphones, will become a critical part of the infrastructure powering everything from self-driving cars to the connected home.

5G remains in the early stages of development. Companies including Qualcomm, based in San Diego, and China’s Huawei have been investing heavily to stake their claim in the underlying technology. Such beachheads can be enormously valuable; control over basic technologies and their patents can yield huge fortunes in computer chips, software and related equipment.

“These transitions come along almost every decade or so,” said Jon Erensen, research director for semiconductors at research firm Gartner. “The government is being very careful to ensure the U.S. keeps its leadership role developing these standards.”

President Donald Trump said late Monday that a takeover of Qualcomm would imperil national security, effectively ending Broadcom’s $117 billion buyout bid. Broadcom said that it is studying the order and that it doesn’t believe it poses any national security threat to the U.S.

Higher stakes

It’s the second recent U.S. warning shot across the bow of foreign telecom makers. At a Senate Intelligence Committee meeting in February, FBI Director Christopher Wray said any company “beholden to foreign governments that don’t share our values” should not be able to “gain positions of power” inside U.S. telecommunications networks.

“That provides the capacity to exert pressure or control over our telecommunications infrastructure, it provides the capacity to maliciously modify or steal information and it provides the capacity to conduct undetected espionage,” he said.

Lawmakers in the U.S. House introduced a bill on Jan. 9 that would prohibit government purchases of telecoms equipment from Huawei Technologies and smaller rival ZTE, citing their ties to the Chinese military and backing from the ruling Communist Party. A few years earlier, a congressional panel recommended phone carriers avoid doing business with Huawei or ZTE.

The stakes are even higher in the 5G race. “Qualcomm/Broadcom is like the Fort Sumter of this technology battle,” said GBH Insights analyst Dan Ives, referring to the battle that kicked off the Civil War.

Although its name isn’t widely known outside the technology industry, San Diego-based Qualcomm is one of the world’s leading makers of the processors that power many smartphones and other mobile devices. Qualcomm also owns patents on key pieces of mobile technology that Apple and other manufacturers use in their products.

Compared to earlier generations of wireless technology, “we’re seeing China emerge and start to play a bigger role in the standards developing process,” Erensen said. Given a wave of consolidation in the telecom-equipment industry, fewer companies are involved “and the stakes are bigger,” he said.

National security

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which reviews the national security implications of foreign investments in U.S. companies, cited concerns about Broadcom’s penchant for cutting costs such as research spending. That could lead to Qualcomm losing its leadership in telecom standards, the committee wrote in a letter earlier in March.

Should that happen, Chinese companies such as Huawei, which the CFIUS has previously expressed concerns about, could take a larger, or even a dominant, role in setting 5G technology and standards and practices. That’s where national security concerns come in.

“Over time, that would mean U.S. government and U.S. technology companies could lose a trusted U.S. supplier that does not present the same national security counterintelligence risk that a Chinese supplier does,” said Brian Fleming, an attorney at Miller & Chevalier and former counsel at the Justice Department’s national security division.

Blocking the deal doesn’t eliminate Chinese influence on 5G development, of course. But it might slow it down, Fleming said: “They honestly believe they are helping to protect national security by doing this.”
…

Sao Paulo investment firm SouthRock Capital has signed an agreement with Starbucks that gives it the right to develop and operate branches of the Seattle-based chain in Brazil, the companies said late on Monday.

With the agreement, whose value was not disclosed, all of Starbucks’ retail operations in Latin America are now wholly licensed rather than directly managed, the companies said.

SouthRock founder Ken Pope said in a statement the fund would eye expansion opportunities in new and existing markets.

Starbucks now has 113 stores across the populous states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

“With Starbucks, we see continued opportunities for growth in existing markets … as well as new markets like Brasilia and the South,” he said.

SouthRock, founded in 2015, also owns Brazil Airport Restaurants, which operates in the country’s biggest airports.

Shares in Starbucks opened up 0.5 percent but closed down 0.58 percent. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.64 percent.
…

“Dona Edir, Dona Edir” — the call is heard frequently in the narrow lanes of Canaa, a slum on the outskirts of Rio de Janeiro.

It is for Edir Dariux Teixeira, who is well known among the residents, having spent more than a third of her life trying to improve infrastructure and basic services in the ramshackle settlement.

At the heart of that fight are legal property titles to the residents’ homes — or, more accurately, the lack of them.

“Without these documents we have no rights,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, sitting close to a fan to alleviate the near-40C (104°F) heat funneling from her asbestos roof.

Debates on how to manage property rights in the world’s informal settlements are becoming ever more pressing, as millions of people move into cities from rural areas every year and many end up in fast-growing slums.

Rio has about 1,000 slums, known locally as favelas. They are home to nearly one in four of the city’s population and typically lack a range of infrastructure and services, experts say.

In Canaa, having title would bring certainty of tenure, and also help to get services provided: sewerage, basic sanitation, and tarred streets, said Teixeira.

“I am anxious. I pray every day [for land titles],” the 59-year-old said.

When she moved to the area 22 years ago, there was a lack of all basic infrastructure in Canaa, including clean water, pavements and lighting.

Teixeira realized change had to be driven by the residents’ themselves and took the lead in trying to improve the area.

“There was nothing here. It was all jungle,” said housewife Glaucia Milani, who has been living in the favela for 25 years. “Now things are getting better because of Dona Edir’s help.”

Milani said apart from helping residents to get legal title to their land, Teixeira has been organising food and clothes donations for the favela and its 300 families.

“Dona Edir is a great mother to us. Anything she can help us, she helps… Dona Edir solves everything for us,” Milani, 31, said. “Dona Edir is a warrior.”

Complex situation

Getting land titles for the residents is no easy task, Teixeira said, not least because some residents have bought land from private owners, while others are squatting.

Her own plot of land was donated by an uncle of her ex-husband but neither Teixeira nor the other residents have official proof of ownership.

ITERJ, the government body in charge of managing land in the state of Rio de Janeiro and responsible for Teixeira’s request to get titles for Canaa’s residents, did not respond to requests for comment.

Most of the favela’s streets got temporary pavements about five years ago but Teixeira said it happened only after she asked a politician for help because taxis were refusing to enter Canaa because the roads were full of potholes.

Despite Teixeira’s efforts, the residents in the favela about 65 kilometers (40 miles) from Rio’s city center are still waiting for the streets to be fully paved, sidewalks to be built and manholes to be constructed.

Teixeira has asked the city to fully pave the streets, provide sewerage infrastructure and a health post for the favela.

In emailed comments to the Thomson Reuters Foundation, Rio’s city hall said the favela was “urbanized” four years ago but did not immediately respond to requests for details about which services were provided to the area.

Fighting for justice

A “very shocking scene” at school when Teixeira was eight years old prompted her decision to dedicate her life to fighting justice, she said.

While she and a boy were having a snack during a school break, another girl asked the boy to give her a piece.

“The boy said: only if you spread your legs,” she said. “Then she immediately spread her legs and … he gave her a bite. That broke my heart.”

At 15, Teixeira was raped and later witnessed the rape of a friend, experiences she said strengthened her resolve to help women.

Teixeira has been working for many years as a volunteer at a charity that distributes food in Rio’s poor neighborhoods, including Canaa.

She was honored for her work with a prize from the Federação de Mulheres Fluminenses, a Rio-based women’s federation.

Meanwhile, Teixeira, who survives on her father’s pension and cleans houses to make money, spends whatever she can of her income — equivalent to $300 a month — on building a school in the patio of her house.

“I do the construction works myself. When there is any money left I pay a professional to do the harder things,” she said.

Beyond literacy, her school will offer a range of classes: cooking, sewing, handicrafts and theater.

“That is my dream. … My dream is to take the kids off the street … because they have nothing to do [here],” she said in tears.

“There are lots of volunteers. What is missing is money to finish the school.”

Teixeira hopes the city will officially recognize Canaa as the favela’s name — it is the Portuguese version of Canaan and was chosen by her in reference to a passage from the Bible of a land promised by God to chosen people.

“We have to have faith. The faith in God is what keeps me standing. And the victories make me keep going,” said Teixeira.
…

The daily commute from Mexico to California farms is the same as it was before Donald Trump became president. Hundreds of Mexicans cross the border and line the sidewalks of Calexico’s tiny downtown by 4 a.m., napping on cardboard sheets and blankets or sipping coffee from a 24-hour doughnut shop until buses leave for the fields.

For decades, cross-border commuters have picked lettuce, carrots, broccoli, onions, cauliflower and other vegetables that make California’s Imperial Valley “America’s Salad Bowl” from December through March. As Trump visits the border Tuesday, the harvest is a reminder of how little has changed despite heated immigration rhetoric in Washington.

Trump will inspect eight prototypes for a future 30-foot border wall that were built in San Diego last fall. He made a “big, beautiful wall” a centerpiece of his campaign and said Mexico would pay for it.

But border barriers extend the same 654 miles (1,046 kilometers) they did under President Barack Obama and so far Trump hasn’t gotten Mexico or Congress to pay for a new wall.

Trump also pledged to expand the Border Patrol by 5,000 agents, but staffing fell during his first year in office farther below a congressional mandate because the government has been unable to keep pace with attrition and retirements. There were 19,437 agents at the end of September, down from 19,828 a year earlier.

In Tijuana, tens of thousands of commuters still line up weekday mornings for San Diego at the nation’s busiest border crossing, some for jobs in landscaping, housekeeping, hotel maids and shipyard maintenance. The vast majority are U.S. citizens and legal residents or holders of “border crossing cards” that are given to millions of Mexicans in border areas for short visits. The border crossing cards do not include work authorization but some break the rules.

Even concern about Trump’s threat to end the North American Free Trade Agreement is tempered by awareness that border economies have been integrated for decades. Mexican “maquiladora” plants, which assemble duty-free raw materials for export to the U.S., have made televisions, medical supplies and other goods since the 1960s.

“How do you separate twins that are joined at the hip?” said Paola Avila, chairwoman of the Border Trade Alliance, a group that includes local governments and business chambers. “Our business relationships will continue to grow regardless of what happens with NAFTA.”

Workers in the Mexicali area rise about 1 a.m., carpool to the border crossing and wait about an hour to reach Calexico’s portico-covered sidewalks by 4 a.m. Some beat the border bottleneck by crossing at midnight to sleep in their cars in Calexico, a city of 40,000 about 120 miles (192 kilometers) east of San Diego. 

Fewer workers make the trek now than 20 and 30 years ago. But not because of Trump. 

Steve Scaroni, one of Imperial Valley’s largest labor contractors, blames the drop on lack of interest among younger Mexicans, which has forced him to rely increasingly on short-term farmworker visas known as H-2As. 

“We have a saying that no one is raising their kids to be farmworkers,” said Scaroni, 55, a third-generation grower and one of Imperial Valley’s largest labor contractors. Last week, he had two or three buses of workers leaving Calexico before dawn, compared to 15 to 20 buses during the 1980s and 1990s.

Crop pickers at Scaroni’s Fresh Harvest Inc. make $13.18 an hour but H-2As bring his cost to $20 to $30 an hour because he must pay for round-trip transportation, sometimes to southern Mexico, and housing. The daily border commuters from Mexicali cost only $16 to $18 after overhead.

Scaroni’s main objective is to expand the H-2A visa program, which covered about 165,000 workers in 2016. On his annual visit to Washington in February to meet members of Congress and other officials, he decided within two hours that nothing changed under Trump. 

“Washington is not going to fix anything,” he said. “You’ve got too many people – lobbyists, politicians, attorneys – who make money off the dysfunction. They make money off of not solving problems. They just keep talking about it.”

Jose Angel Valenzuela, who owns a house in Mexicali and is working his second harvest in Imperial Valley, earns more picking cabbage in an hour than he did in a day at a factory in Mexico. He doesn’t pay much attention to news and isn’t following developments on the border wall.

“We’re doing very well,” he said as workers passed around beef tacos during a break. “We haven’t seen any noticeable change.”

Jack Vessey, whose family farms about 10,000 acres in Imperial Valley, relies on border commuters for about half of his workforce. Imperial has only 175,000 people and Mexicali has about 1 million, making Mexico an obvious labor pool.

Vessey, 42, said he has seen no change on the border and doesn’t expect much. He figures 10 percent of Congress embraces open immigration policies, another 10 percent oppose them and the other 80 percent don’t want to touch it because their voters are too divided.

“It’s like banging your head against the wall,” he said. 
…

Chile’s new government is preparing belt-tightening measures after inheriting a larger-than-anticipated fiscal deficit from its predecessor, but the measures will stop short of “mega-adjustments,” Finance Minister Felipe Larrain said on Monday.

Conservative billionaire Sebastian Pinera took office on Sunday vowing to combat economic “stagnation” and calling for a return to “fiscal equilibrium” as he seeks to transform Chile into a developed nation within a decade.

“We’re in a period of tight budgets, with levels of public debt that have doubled, which means we must begin with austerity measures, followed by a reassigning resources, in order to finance the president’s program,” Larrain told reporters as he entered the finance ministry for his first day on the job.

Shortly before leaving office, outgoing President Michelle Bachelet’s government reported it had left a fiscal deficit of 2.1 percent of gross domestic product, instead of 1.7 percent as targeted.

Chile’s Congress this year authorized an increase in public spending of 3.9 percent, which Pinera had previously criticized as “high.”

“These austerity measures, and the wise use of resources, are always welcome and are necessary. But we’re not talking about mega-adjustments, we’re talking about austerity measures,” Larrain said.

During his campaign, Pinera, who also governed from 2010 to 2014, said he hoped to guide the country to fiscal equilibrium within six to eight years.
…

U.S. President Donald Trump is blocking Singapore-based Broadcom, maker of computer and smartphone chips, from taking over U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm.

Trump cited national security grounds in stopping the takeover, following the recommendation of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The committee reviews national security implications when foreign entities purchase U.S. corporations.

The president’s order said there is “credible evidence” that the takeover “might take action that threatens to impair the national security of the United States.”

Broadcom made an unsolicited bid last year to take over Qualcomm for $117 billion.

The company has been in the process of moving its legal headquarters from Singapore to the United States to help it win approval for the takeover.

Qualcomm, which is based in San Diego, has emerged as one of the biggest competitors to Chinese companies, such as Huawei Technologies, making it an attractive asset for potential buyers in the semiconductor industry.

Companies in the industry are racing against each other to develop 5G wireless technology to transmit data at faster speeds.
…

Labor strikes. Nationwide protests. Bank failures.

In recent months, Iran has been beset by economic problems despite the promises surrounding the 2015 nuclear deal it struck with world powers.

Its clerically overseen government is starting to take notice. Politicians now offer the idea of possible government referendums or early elections. Even Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei acknowledged the depths of the problems ahead of the 40th anniversary of Iran’s Islamic Revolution.

“Progress has been made in various sectors in the real sense of the word; however, we admit that in the area of ‘justice’ we are lagging behind,” Khamenei said in February, according to an official transcript. “We should apologize to Allah the Exalted and to our dear people.”

Whether change can come, however, is in question.

​An economy run by the state

Iran today largely remains a state-run economy. It has tried to privatize some of its industries, but critics say they have been handed over to a wealthy elite that looted them and ran them into the ground.

One major strike now grips the Iran National Steel Industrial Group in Ahvaz, in the country’s southwest, where hundreds of workers say they haven’t been paid in three months. Authorities say some demonstrators have been arrested during the strike.

More than 3.2 million Iranians are jobless, government spokesman Mohammad-Bagher Nobakht has said. The unemployment rate is more than 11 percent.

Banks remain hobbled by billions of dollars in bad loans, some from the era of nuclear sanctions and others tainted with fraud. The collapse last year of the Caspian Credit Institute, which promised depositors the kinds of returns rarely seen outside of Ponzi schemes, showed the economic desperation faced by many in Iran.

​Or in security services’​ grip

Meanwhile, much of the economy is in the grip of Iran’s security services.

The country’s powerful Revolutionary Guard paramilitary force, which answers only Khamenei and runs Iran’s ballistic missile program, controls 15 to 30 percent of the economy, analysts say.

Under President Hassan Rouhani, a relatively moderate cleric whose government reached the nuclear accord, there has been a push toward ending military control of some businesses. However, the Guard is unlikely to give up its power easily.

Some suggest hard-liners and the Guard may welcome the economic turmoil in Iran as it weakens Rouhani’s position. His popularity has slipped since winning a landslide re-election in May 2017, in part over the country’s economic woes.

Analysts believe a hard-line protest in late December likely lit the fuse for the nationwide demonstrations that swept across about 75 cities. While initially focused on the economy, they quickly turned anti-government. At least 25 people were killed in clashes surrounding the demonstrations, while nearly 5,000 reportedly were arrested.

​A rare referendum?

In the time since, Rouhani has suggested holding a referendum, without specifying what exactly would be voted on.

“If factions have differences, there is no need to fight, bring it to the ballot,” Rouhani said in a speech Feb. 11. “Do whatever the people say.”

Such words don’t come lightly. There have been only two referendums since the Islamic Revolution. A 1979 referendum installed Iran’s Islamic republic. A 1989 constitutional referendum eliminated the post of prime minister, created Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and made other changes.

A letter signed by 15 prominent Iranians published a day after Rouhani’s speech called for a referendum on whether Iran should become a secular parliamentary democracy. The letter was signed by Iranians living inside the country and abroad, including Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi.

“The sum of the experiences of the last 40 years show the impossibility of reforming the Islamic Republic, since by hiding behind divine concepts … the regime has become the principal obstacle to progress and salvation of the Iranian nation,” read the letter, which was posted online.

But even among moderates in Iran’s clerical establishment, there seems to be little interest in such far-reaching changes, which would spell the end of the Islamic Republic. Hard-liners, who dominate the country’s security services, are adamantly opposed.

“I am telling the anti-Islamic government network, the anti-Iranians and those runaway counterrevolutionaries … their wish for a public referendum will never come true,” Tehran Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said Feb. 15, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

​Take responsibility

Yet there are signs that authorities realize that something will have to give. Khamenei’s apology in February took many by surprise, especially as the country’s true hard-liners believe he is the representative of God on earth.

Khamenei’s apology came after a letter from Mehdi Karroubi, an opposition activist who remains under house arrest, demanding that the supreme leader take responsibility for failures.

“You were president for eight years and you have been the absolute ruler for almost 29 years,” Karroubi wrote in the letter, which was not reported on by state media. “Therefore, considering your power and influence over the highest levels of state, you must accept that today’s political, economic, cultural and social situation in the country is a direct result of your guidance and administration.”

Iran’s former hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, blamed by many for the country’s economic woes, has come out for early elections. He also demanded they be “free and fair,” while continuing his own campaign against Khamenei, whom he ignored in his attempt to run in the 2017 presidential election.

However, Ahmadinejad’s action drew immediate criticism, as his own widely disputed 2009 re-election sparked unrest and violence that killed dozens.
…

China said Sunday it does not intend to ignite a trade war with the U.S. because the move would be disastrous for the entire world.

“There are no winners in a trade war,” Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said on the sidelines of China’s annual parliamentary session.

“China does not wish to fight a trade war, nor will China initiate a trade war, but we can handle any challenge and will resolutely defend the interests of our country and our people,” Zhong said.

President Donald Trump signed proclamations Thursday imposing a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum, with the new taxes set to go into effect this month.

​US, Japan, EU talk

Trade representatives for Japan and the European Union met with the U.S. trade representative Saturday in an effort to avoid a trade war over Trump’s new tariffs on aluminum and steel.

At the meeting in Brussels, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom and Japanese counterpart Hiroshige Seko discussed the tariffs as part of a trilateral effort to combat unfair trade practices.

The EU said in a statement that both Brussels and Tokyo had serious concerns about the U.S. tariffs. Both powers, two of the biggest trade partners with the United States, have asked for exemptions from the tariffs.

After the meeting, Malmstrom tweeted, “No immediate clarity on the exact U.S. procedure for exemption … so discussions will continue next week.”

“I firmly and clearly expressed my view that this is regrettable,” Seko said at a news conference following the meeting. “… I explained that this could have a bad effect on the entire multilateral trading system.”

Saturday afternoon, Trump accused the EU of treating “the U.S. very badly on trade.” He said if they drop their “horrific barriers & tariffs on U.S. products… we will likewise drop ours,” he wrote in a tweet.

If they don’t, he warned the U.S. would tax European cars and other products.

​Exemptions unclear

On Friday, the European Union said it is not clear whether the bloc will be exempt from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs.

EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom said Friday in Brussels, “We hope that we can get confirmation that the EU is excluded from this.”

Canada and Mexico were given specific exemptions from the tariffs for an indefinite period while negotiations continue on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Brazil, South Korea and Australia have also asked for exemptions or special treatment.

Trump imposed the tariffs despite pleas from friends and allies who warned the new measure could ignite a trade war.
…

Trade representatives for Japan and the European Union met with the U.S. trade representative Saturday in an effort to avoid a trade war over President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on aluminum and steel.

At the meeting in Brussels, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom and Japanese counterpart Hiroshige Seko discussed the tariffs as part of a trilateral effort to combat unfair trade practices.

The EU said in a statement that both Brussels and Tokyo had serious concerns about the U.S. tariffs. Both powers, two of the biggest trade partners with the United States, have asked for exemptions from the tariffs.

After the meeting, Malmstrom tweeted, “No immediate clarity on the exact U.S. procedure for exemption … so discussions will continue next week.”

Seko said at a news conference following the meeting, “I firmly and clearly expressed my view that this is regrettable. … I explained that this could have a bad effect on the entire multilateral trading system.” 

Saturday afternoon, Trump accused the EU of treating “the U.S. very badly on trade.” He said if they dropped their “horrific barriers & tariffs on U.S. products … we will likewise drop ours.”

If they don’t, he warned, the United States will tax European cars and other products.

On Friday, the European Union said it was not clear whether the bloc would be exempt from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs.

Malmstrom said Friday in Brussels, “We hope that we can get confirmation that the EU is excluded from this.”

Trump signed proclamations Thursday imposing a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum, with the new taxes set to go into effect in two weeks. 

Canada and Mexico were given specific exemptions from the tariffs for an indefinite period while negotiations continue on the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Brazil, South Korea and Australia have also asked for exemptions or special treatment.

Trump imposed the tariffs despite pleas from friends and allies who warned the new measure could ignite a trade war.
…

Several Asian nations that are major trading partners with the U.S. reacted strongly Friday to a U.S. decision to impose tariffs on metal imports, raising concerns of global trade conflicts.

China, a key target of U.S. trade concerns, said it was “resolutely opposed” to the U.S. tariff decision, with Japan warning of the impact on bilateral ties.

South Korea said it may file a complaint to the international trade dispute body, the World Trade Organization (WTO). South Korea is the third-largest steel exporter to the U.S. after Canada and Brazil.

Several Southeast Asian nations say they fear a wave of import dumping of steel and aluminum products.

U.S. President Donald Trump, turning aside warnings from economists and members within the Republican Party, signed an order Thursday for new tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imports to the U.S., saying the measures were necessary to protect U.S. industry.

Trump has exempted key exporters of steel and aluminum, Canada and Mexico, while negotiating changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and other countries such as Australia also may be spared.

The U.S. is the world’s largest importer of steel, totaling 35 million tons of raw material in 2017, with South Korea, Japan, China and India accounting for 6.6 million tons.

Global reaction

Thai economist Wisarn Pupphavesa, a senior adviser to the Thai economic think tank, the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), called the tariff aiming to protect U.S. industry a “very bad situation.”

“The U.S. has been a leader in the multilateral system, the leader in the trade liberalization, and the U.S. played a most important role in writing all the rules that are governing the global market now. But now President Trump decided to break those rules … so this is a very bad situation,” Wisarn told VOA.

Economists at London-based Capital Economics said in a release Friday the major concern over U.S. steps to increase tariffs is they mark a “turning point in U.S. policy to a much broader and deeper shift toward protectionism.”

Malaysia’s Second International Trade and Industry Minister, Datuk Seri Ong Ka Chuan, says the government is monitoring the impact of the tariff increase, although steel and aluminum contributed to less than one percent of Malaysia’s total exports.

But Thailand’s Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said the threat lies in import dumping of steel and aluminum to the Southeast Asian market.

FTI secretary general, Korrakod Padungjit, told local media there were several leading exporters — Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, India, China, Vietnam and Turkey — that may now target Southeast Asia.

The vice president of the ASEAN [Association of South East Asian Nations] Iron and Steel Council, Roberto Cola, told media that excess steel supplies from China would head to Southeast Asia.

High demand

Southeast Asia’s fast-growing economies, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, face a high demand for steel to meet growing infrastructure and development needs.

Japan at 11 percent and China at 14 percent are reported to be the largest Asian exporters of aluminum to the U.S. A shift in exports to Asia would put producers in South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand under competitive pressure.

Thanomsri Fongarunrung, an economist at the Bangkok-based Phatra Securities, said Thailand already was facing steel import “dumping” by China. She said another fear lies in indirect impacts from any escalation into “tit-for-tat” trade protection measures from other regions, such as the European Union (EU).

The EU already has said it will seek to impose tariffs on selected U.S. imports ranging from alcohol to motorbikes.

But the TDRI’s Wisarn says the economic growth in Southeast Asia in the past decade, with its focus on China, will shield the region from major moves by the U.S. to boost trade protectionism.

“East Asia [has] become the new growth core of the global economy. So the impact of the U.S. action, in fact, would have very little impact as far as East Asia is concerned,” he told VOA.

As a result, the role of the economies of China, Japan and South Korea, as well as Australia and New Zealand, will be enhanced by the U.S. decision.

Trade war

But analysts say the greater concern for regional trade and potential conflict lies ahead with a battle over intellectual property theft, especially targeting China.

Economists say the region’s economic growth potential could be hit by a trade war. The World Bank in a January assessment said growth in East Asia and Pacific is forecast at 6.2 percent in 2018, down slightly from 6.4 percent in 2017.

The World Bank, while upbeat, says “rising geopolitical tension, increased global protectionism” a tightening of global financial conditions, or a “steeper-than-expected” slowdown in major economies, including China, pose a downside risk to the regional outlook.
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China is gearing up to retaliate in response to stiff U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum as Chinese industry associations urge authorities to take “resolute measures.” Retaliation from Beijing could contribute to a possible trade war between the world’s two biggest economies, analysts said.

China’s Ministry of Commerce has pledged to “firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests” and called for an end to the measures as quickly as possible.

In a statement posted on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association, the group appealed to the government in Beijing “to take resolute measures against imports of some U.S. products, including stainless steel, galvanized sheet, seamless pipe, coal, agriculture products and electronic products.”

While the possibility of retaliating over steel and hitting agricultural imports and other sectors has been mentioned previously, it was the first time that coal has been drawn into the brewing spat.

China’s increased imports of coal over the past year have given the U.S. industry a needed boost.

The group also said U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25 percent tariffs on steel would impact the global industry and be met with opposition from more countries. The U.S. has already taken other actions impacting Chinese exports of aluminum, solar panels and washing machines in recent months.

The Trump administration has asked China to reduce the trade deficit by $100 billion and threatened several actions to force Beijing to listen. In 2017, the trade gap between the two countries stood at $375 billion; but, there are early indications that the deficit might be much higher this year. In January, the monthly trade deficit with China surged 16.7 percent, to $36 billion, its highest level since September 2015.

Flashpoints

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi acknowledged growing concerns about a trade war, while indicating that Beijing was working on possible retaliatory actions.

“I would like to say that history has taught us that trade wars are never the solution,” he said at a recent press conference on the sidelines of China’s annual political meetings. “It will only hurt both sides, and China will surely make a justified and necessary response.”

The minister advocated a “calm and constructive dialogue as equals” in order to find “a mutually beneficial and win-win solution.”

The stakes are high for both sides, but there are limits to the amount of damage they can inflict without hurting their own economies, analysts note.

China has already launched a probe into imports of U.S. sorghum, a grain used in animal feed and liquor.

There are two other flashpoints on the horizon — an upcoming report on whether China deserves blame for the large-scale theft of intellectual property rights, and a decision on the issue of dubbing Beijing as a currency manipulator.

“They will retaliate; they’ve already signaled following Trump’s steel tariffs [announcement] last week that they are going to take some measures. I think it is just a question of what they are going to decide to do,” Gareth Leather, a senior Asia economist with Capital Economics, told VOA while discussing the Chinese leadership’s plans going forward.

He said Beijing is clever and will likely target sectors of the economy in a manner that hurts the administration at a political level, he said.

Political acupuncture

“I think the key one [target] is going to be the U.S. agriculture sector. It’s obviously a politically key area for them,” Leather said. “So, they will look at certain sectors such as orange juice from Florida, for example. They will look at which senators are from there and see whether they are pro-free trade or not.”

Following the announcement, the communist party-backed Global Times said in an editorial that Beijing should show it will not be cowed.

“It [China] must retaliate against U.S. tariffs that forcibly interfere with Sino-U.S. trade and violate World Trade Organization rules. China must show it won’t be bullied,” the editorial said.

Beijing is expected to target soybeans, one of the most valuable U.S. exports to China. China has also used its purchase of Boeing aircraft as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations in the past and might now threaten to shift its preference to Airbus.

Leather said China is also closely studying the coming U.S. midterm elections to fine-tune its attack if that is necessary.

“I suspect what they’ll do is they’ll look at plants in certain swing states that may be suffering but have Republican congressmen up for elections and probably target those,” he said.

While the Trump administration’s measures go into effect in about two weeks, they alone will not have a major impact on the Chinese economy. For now, China’s response is likely to be quite symbolic, Leather said, and the Chinese are not likely to ratchet up the pressure too much.

“I think the risk is, however, that if the U.S. does press ahead on further protectionist measures, which do specifically target China, then, I think, China will have to respond in a much more aggressive way, and then obviously risks all end up getting a lot worse,” he said.

Trade is not the only area that could be a factor going forward.

In a daily newsletter, Trivium China, a research group in Beijing, said news that Trump is expected to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un soon [to discuss ending the North’s nuclear program] could have an impact as well.

“If Xi Jinping helps to facilitate that meeting, it might buy China some time; but, it would only be a temporary reprieve from Trump’s trade ire,” the newsletter noted.
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Young people around the United States are creating virtual businesses that produce simulated products, which are marketed and sold for virtual money. Thirteen hundred students recently showcased their ventures, ranging from telecom firms to gourmet food providers, in Pasadena, California.

At what looked like a corporate trade show, students from Miguel Contreras Business and Tourism School in Los Angeles solicited customers for their tour company. Teacher Darrell Iki helped the students launch Big City Tours, which exists only in the classroom and online. The company stages virtual tours to different parts of Los Angeles, highlighting the city’s ethnic heritage, fashion or high-end shopping. A related virtual company sells travel gear.

Students from Century High School in Santa Ana, California, sell a hypothetical translation device geared toward travelers. 

It all starts with a business plan, according to Iki, as students are named to executive positions and learn to “work together, having a common goal in a potentially successful business.”

The students quickly realized that business is complicated, according to the head of the nonprofit group that works with schools around the country to impart skills through simulations. Thirteen thousand students go through the program each year.

“They’re running meetings, they’re networking, they’re meeting with professionals, they’re working with mentors,” said Nick Chapman of Virtual Enterprises International. The students showcase their companies at competitions, like this one in California. Similar virtual business programs exist in schools in 40 countries.

One student entrepreneur said he now understands the pressure of running a company, in this case a food firm called Taste of the World. He has overseen human resources and digital media for the virtual firm at Century High School in California.

“You really need to be hands-on with your employees and make sure your guys have strong communication,” said Miguel Santin. “Otherwise, the company just won’t prosper.”

Taste of the World is a subscription service that, at least in theory, sends snacks to subscribers through the mail.

“You sign up for three months, six months, a year, and you receive a snack box with trinkets and information about that company every single month throughout your subscription time,” said teacher Alan Gersten.

No real money changes hands.

“You would pay within our virtual economy,” Gersten said, “using virtual money in a web-based simulated banking system. All the kids in the program have bank accounts, so when they buy something, we give them a receipt.”

There’s a lot to learn, noted teacher Stephen Jarvis of the Elizabeth Learning Center in Cudahy, California. “It isn’t just selling something. It’s all the things that go on behind the scenes — creating documents, figuring out if you’re making money or losing money,” he said.

The money isn’t real, but the skills are, said a student entrepreneur with the virtual company Big City Tours, who won a scholarship to college.

“I went to the interviews, and being in this company has helped me really prepare my presentation skills and be able to talk to other people,” said student Catalina Garcia, who will start college this fall and hopes to become a doctor. She says the skills she gained in a virtual company have helped her, whether or not she starts her own company or works in the corporate sector.
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Europe’s top monetary official criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to put tariffs on steel and aluminum imports as a “dangerous” unilateral move.

Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, said that the “immediate spillover of the trade measures … is not going to be big.” But he said such disputes should be worked out among trade partners, not decided by measures initiated from one side.

“Whatever convictions one has about trade … we are convinced that disputes should be discussed and resolved in a multilateral framework, and that unilateral decisions are dangerous.”

Trump is expected to announce by the end of this week tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum. Trump has long singled out China for being unfair in trade practices, but experts say the tariffs would hurt U.S. allies Canada and the European Union far more.

Draghi warned that unilateral moves like these tariffs could trigger retaliation — which the EU and China, among other, have already threatened.

The most important fallout, Draghi said, would be if tariffs raised fears about the economy. They could depress confidence among consumers and businesses, he said, which could weaken both growth and inflation.

Draghi also alluded to the kind of financial deregulation the U.S. is pursuing as a risk to the global economy. The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would remove some of the banking safeguards imposed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers. The bill is sponsored by Republican Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho but has attracted several Democratic sponsors as well.

Draghi didn’t mention the bill specifically but said that the global financial crisis had been preceded by “systematic disruption of financial regulation in the major jurisdictions.” He said that while European regulators are not looking to ease back checks on the financial sector “massive deregulation in one market is going to affect the whole world.”

These uncertainties overshadowed a monetary policy announcement by the ECB, in which it hinted it is closer to withdrawing a key economic stimulus program.

The bank left unchanged its key interest rates as well as the size of its bond-buying stimulus program after its latest policy meeting. But in its statement it omitted an earlier promise that it could increase its bond-purchase stimulus in size or duration if the economic outlook worsens.

Draghi downplayed the step, saying it was a “backward-looking measure” that no longer fit today’s circumstances. Economic growth in the eurozone hit a strong annual rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter, making the prospect of added stimulus remote.

The bank has said it will continue buying 30 billion euros ($37 million) in bonds per month through September and longer if needed — but has given no precise end date.

The eventual end of the stimulus will have wide-ranging effects. It could cause the euro to rise in value against other currencies, potentially hurting exporters, and it could bring higher returns on savings as well as stiffer borrowing costs for indebted governments in the 19-country eurozone. It should make it easier for people and companies to fund pension savings. But it could make richly valued stock markets less attractive relative to more conservative holdings.

The euro was volatile after the ECB’s statement, first jumping and then falling back to $1.2333 by end of day.

The stimulus program pushes newly printed money into the economy. That in theory should lower borrowing rates and raise inflation and growth. But while growth has bounced back, inflation has been slow to respond. It remains at 1.2 percent, stubbornly below the bank’s goal of just under 2 percent, the level considered best for the economy.

The bond purchases were started March 2015 to help the eurozone bounce back from troubles over government and bank debt in several member countries including Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus, Spain and Italy. The economy is now doing better, but the bank has moved cautiously in ending its crisis measures for fear of roiling recently volatile financial markets.
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Trade ministers from 11 Pacific Rim countries are set to sign a sweeping agreement to streamline trade and slash tariffs just as U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to formalize new tariffs on aluminum and steel to protect U.S. producers.

The deal to be signed Thursday in the Chilean capital is an outgrowth of the Trans-Pacific Partnership that Trump pulled the U.S. out of last year.

Many feared the agreement would not prosper without its most influential country. But the remaining 11 members pressed ahead, saying it shows resolve against protectionism.

The pact includes Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.
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A number of eastern European states have ramped up their opposition to a new gas pipeline linking Russia with Germany.

The Nord Stream 2 project will bring Russian gas directly to Western Europe, but critics say it will increase dependence on Russia and enrich its state-owned energy firms, at a time when Moscow stands accused of undermining European security.

The $11 billion, 1,225-kilometer pipeline is on schedule for completion next year. It is a private project backed by Russian state-owned Gazprom and five energy companies from Germany, France, Britain and the Netherlands. It also has the strong backing of the German and Russian governments.

“We support the implementation of this project which is undoubtedly, absolutely free from politics. This is a purely economic and moreover purely commercial project,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters after meeting the Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, last week in Moscow. Kurz also offered his support for the project.

Doing business with Putin

Many eastern states, however, say Europe should not be engaged in big business with President Putin. Some of the most vocal critics have been the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, whose foreign ministers traveled to Washington last week to meet Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

“Security these days is increasingly indivisible. There’s no clear division between internal and external security and also geographically,” Estonian Foreign Minister Sven Mikser told reporters in Washington ahead of the meeting.

The United States is opposed to Nord Stream 2, having sanctioned Russian companies over Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, along with foreign companies involved in Russian energy exploration. So far, those sanctions don’t affect the new pipeline.

The European Commission also opposes the project but says there are no legal grounds to prevent the private investment from going ahead.

WATCH: Europe Split on Nord Stream 2 Pipeline as US Warns Against Dependence on Russian Gas

Softening sanctions

Opponents fear any additional revenues for Russia from Nord Stream 2 would soften the impact of sanctions. Many Eastern European states also question whether the new pipeline will benefit them economically, says Noah Gordon, analyst at the Center for European Reform, a London-based research group.

“There could be bottlenecks through central Europe and Eastern Europe, and those places could see prices rise and they might be more exposed to a Russian political gas cutoff. Ukraine would lose about $2 billion a year in transit fees.”

Currently, more than half of Russian gas exports to Europe are routed through Ukraine. Supporters of Nord Stream 2 say it would increase security of supply, citing recent price disputes between Moscow and Kyiv.

The EU hopes to mitigate the risk of increased dependence on Russia by investing in connecting pipelines across European borders.

“The goal is a resilient gas market where gas flows freely across borders,” Gordon said. “For two years, Ukraine hasn’t bought any gas from Russia. Instead they buy gas, Russian gas usually, indirectly from European traders like Germany, like the Dutch. So if the European gas market was in a strong enough state and if Europe was more energy efficient and used less gas, Russian or otherwise, Russia wouldn’t be able to meddle or use gas as a weapon ever again.”

Poland and Lithuania, which vehemently oppose Nord Stream 2, have built terminals for liquefied natural gas, or LNG. The United States wants to boost its LNG exports to Europe.

Both Europe and the U.S. hope that a diversified supply will help reduce Russia’s ability to use gas as a political weapon.
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Some countries are now likely to be spared from planned tariffs on metals advocated by U.S. President Donald Trump. 

“We expect that the president will sign something by the end of the week, and there are potential carve-outs for Mexico and Canada, based on national security, and possibly other countries as well, based on that process,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters Tuesday. 

Sources at the White House also said Trump’s controversial tariff plan could be put into action at a signing ceremony at 3:30 p.m. EDT (2030 UTC) Thursday.

Reuters quoted a senior U.S. official as saying the measures would take effect about two weeks after Trump signed the proclamation. 

Meanwhile Wednesday, U.S. Representative Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican, and other House members wrote a letter to Trump urging him to minimize negative consequences if he goes through with the tariff plan.

Brady, chair of the Ways and Means Committee, joined with Representative Dave Reichert, a Washington state Republican who chairs the Ways and Means subcommittee on trade, led the lawmakers who warned the president about the drawbacks to his tariff plan.

The letter said “tariffs are taxes that make U.S. businesses less competitive and U.S. consumers poorer,” and “any tariffs that are imposed should be designed to address specific distortions caused by unfair trade practices in a targeted way while minimizing negative consequences in American businesses and consumers.”

The lawmakers recommended that Trump exclude fairly traded products and products that do not pose a national security threat; announce a process for U.S. companies to petition for duty-free access to imports unavailable from U.S. sources; and allow exemptions for existing contracts for steel and aluminum purchases. They also recommended doing a short-term review of the effects of the tariffs on the economy to decide whether the approach is working.

The tariffs are expected to impose a duty of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum imports that Trump says undermine U.S. industry with their low prices.

The comment that some Canada and Mexico may be spared in the tariffs plan resulted in key stock indexes and the U.S. dollar paring losses in afternoon trading.

The Dow Jones industrial average, after falling more than 300 points during the session, closed off 83 points, a drop of one-third of a percent. 

Market players said the sell-off was sparked by the previous day’s announcement that the president’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, was resigning. The former Goldman Sachs investment bank president had opposed the sweeping tariffs for foreign steel and aluminum.

‘Easy to win’

Trump boasted last week that trade wars “are good and easy to win” after his surprise announcement he planned to impose the tariffs on imports of the two metals. That prompted widespread criticism from his normal Republican colleagues in Congress and America’s allies. 

The president, according to staffers, acted on recommendations made by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, formerly a billionaire investor, and Peter Navarro, an economist who is director of the White House National Trade Council. 

​’Easy to win’

Trump boasted last week that trade wars “are good and easy to win” after his surprise announcement he planned to impose a 25 percent U.S. tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent levy on aluminum imports. That prompted widespread criticism from his normal Republican colleagues in Congress and America’s allies. 

The president, according to staffers, acted on recommendations made by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, formerly a billionaire investor, and Peter Navarro, an economist who is director of the White House National Trade Council. 

Ross said the planned steel and aluminum tariffs were “thought through. We’re not looking for a trade war.”

The tariffs proposal also won support from economic nationalists in the United States and some Democratic lawmakers in manufacturing states whose fortunes could be boosted by the tariffs protecting their metal industries.

The chief of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, on Wednesday in a European radio interview, warned of a global trade war, predicting the U.S. tariffs could lead to “a drop in growth, a drop in trade, and it will be fearsome.”

Warning that there would be no victors in such a trade war, Lagarde urged “the sides to reach agreements, hold negotiations, consultations.”

‘Easy to lose’

European Council President Donald Tusk echoed Lagarde’s stance, saying, “The truth is quite the opposite: Trade wars are bad and easy to lose. For this reason, I strongly believe that now is the time for politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to act responsibly.”

The European Commission, the executive arm of the 28-nation European Union, detailed retaliatory tariffs it plans to impose on prominent U.S. products if Trump carries out his plan to impose the metal tariffs, taxing Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon, blue jeans, cranberries, orange juice and peanut butter.

Moody’s Investors Service said the planned tariffs “raise the risk of a deterioration in global trade relations.”

Trump said on Twitter that since former President George H.W. Bush was in the White House 30 years ago, “our Country has lost more than 55,000 factories, 6,000,000 manufacturing jobs and accumulated Trade Deficits of more than 12 Trillion Dollars.”

“Bad Policies & Leadership. Must WIN again!” Trump also said on Twitter. 

Trump claimed the United States last year had a trade deficit of “almost 800 Billion Dollars,” significantly overstating the actual figure of $566 billion, which still was the biggest U.S. trade deficit in nine years. 

A new report Wednesday said the U.S. trade deficit in January — the amount its imports exceeded its exports — reached $56.6 billion, the highest monthly total since October 2008.
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At Sweet Waters, a village in central Kenya, Veronicah Nyambura stands under the hot sun between two fields. One is full of lush plants – but the other has crops so wilted that their leaves have curled up.

The green land is planted with tea tree, an Australian native that thrives in this semi-arid part of Kenya. Opposite is a field of maize, which suffers in years of poor rains and high temperatures.

“Maize is very disappointing. You plant but you’re never sure whether you’ll harvest anything,” said Nyambura, who has planted a quarter-acre of tea trees.

The 65-year-old said she harvests 900 kg of tea tree branches every six months from that bit of land. When it was planted to maize, she got about 270 kg of grain every nine months, she said.

Many farmers in this part of Laikipia County – like farmers in many parts of the world – cannot afford to buy seeds for alternative crops better suited to drought, so keep planting maize.

But Nyambura and about 800 other small-scale farmers were sold tea tree seedlings on credit by a company called Earthoil that also guaranteed to buy their harvest. Each seedling cost 3.5 Kenyan shillings, or about 3 cents.

Earthoil, which buys the branches for between 17 Kenyan shillings ($0.17) and 19 Kenyan shillings ($0.19) a kilogram, extracts the tea tree oil at its local distillery and exports it to British skin-care company, The Body Shop.

Dairy cows and a TV

To meet the demands of buyers, Martin Thogoto Mwambia, 68, uses mulch – not chemical fertilizers or pesticides – on his 1.75-acre tea tree farm in Ngarariga village, in neighboring Nyeri county.

“I am mulching them with cow-dung and dried leftovers of tea tree,” he said with a smile while rubbing the dirt off his hands.

The farmer said he has reaped a fortune from the crop, which means he does not have to spend his old age working in menial jobs.

“Handling 50,000 Kenyan shillings ($490) and sometimes 100,000 Kenyan shillings ($990) is a miracle to me. Tea tree has given me that privilege,” said Mwambia, who worked as a guard in a local firm before he began growing tea trees.

Prior to tea tree he grew maize – but even in good years he earned far less, he said.

“Sometimes when the drought is at its worst I would harvest a tin (a kilogram) or two,” said Mwambia who is now harvesting an average of 10,000 kgs of tea tree branches annually from his farm.

The proceeds have enabled him to buy two dairy cows, get connected to electricity and buy a television set.

“Life is better for us now. I am happy,” said his wife, Jane Gathigia.

The drought-tolerant tea trees come with the advantage of a ready market, the farmers said.

“Marketing maize is a headache. The prices fluctuate from time to time and farmers end up making losses,” said Alice Wanja, 42, at her quarter-acre tea tree farm at Sweet Waters, about 1.5 km from Nyambura’s home.

“There is nothing like that with tea tree. The buyer is already at the waiting end and the buying price is good,” she said.

Long-term risks

The Laikipia County project came about through a grant from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), administered by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and implemented by a local charity, Kenya Organic Agriculture Network (KOAN), which partnered with Earthoil.

Although projects of this kind guarantee farmers a reliable buyer, they do not necessarily offer security in the longterm since the buyer may go out of business or move elsewhere, warned Tom Nyamache, professor of economics at Turkana University College.

On the flip side, the buyer is also at risk of closing shop if the farmers’ productivity falls or fails completely, he said.

It is important that farmers plant an alternative crop that also can thrive in the changed climate conditions to serve as a fallback should their tea tree ventures fail, he said.

Earthoil’s project manager, Martin Wainaina, said there is such a big demand for tea tree oil that they are making aggressive plans to expand production.

The Body Shop wants 30 tons of oil from the firm each year, but Earthoil can currently only supply 8 tons, he said.

Expanding the pool of farmers is a challenge. The plants have to be grown near the distillery, as tea tree branches are bulky and difficult to transport, he said.

The tea tree thrives in the volcanic soil and high altitudes in this region near Mount Kenya, Wainaina said.

Expanding production to other parts of Kenya with similar arid and semi-arid climates will only be possible through research and investment in more tea tree processing, analysts say.

Nancy Chege, country program manager at GEF-UNDP, Kenya, said scaling up tea tree farming also would depend on continuing to look for new markets, both locally and internationally.

But “most (such) community projects … are usually sustainable because trade goes on even after the project (ends),” she said.

($1 = 101.1700 Kenyan shillings)
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European Union states are set to remove Bahrain, the Marshall Islands and Saint Lucia from a list of tax havens next week, leaving only six jurisdictions on it, an EU document shows.

The planned removals from the EU list drew criticism from an anti-corruption watchdog on Tuesday. The decision is also likely to bring more disapproval from lawmakers and activists who had strongly criticized a first delisting in January that cut the number of jurisdictions named to nine from 17.

The latest decision was taken by the EU Code of Conduct Group, which includes tax experts from the 28 member states, according to an EU document seen by Reuters.

EU finance ministers are expected to endorse the proposal at their regular monthly meeting in Brussels on March 13.

The jurisdictions that remain on the blacklist are American Samoa, Guam, Namibia, Palau, Samoa and Trinidad and Tobago.

Bahrain, the Marshall Islands and Saint Lucia are to be delisted after they made “specific commitments” to adapt their tax rules and practices to EU standards, the document says.

Those commitments are not public.

“This ever-decreasing list of tax havens will soon be so short it will be able to fit on a Post-it. It’s time for the EU to publish how it chooses which countries go on the list and why,” said Elena Gaita, of Transparency International EU, an anti-corruption watchdog.

Panama

In the last cut, EU governments decided to remove Barbados, Grenada, South Korea, Macau, Mongolia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Panama.

Panama’s delisting caused particular outcry. The EU process to set up a tax-haven blacklist was triggered by publication of the Panama Papers, documents that showed how wealthy individuals and multinational corporations use offshore schemes to reduce their tax bills.

Ministers said January’s delisting signaled that the process was working as countries around the world were agreeing to adopt EU standards on tax transparency.

All delisted countries have been moved to a “gray list,” which includes dozens of jurisdictions that are not in line with EU standards against tax avoidance but have committed to change their rules and practices.

These countries can be moved back to the blacklist if they fail to respect their undertakings.

Blacklist

Blacklisted jurisdictions could face reputational damage and stricter controls on their financial transactions with the EU, although no sanctions have been agreed by member states yet.

The blacklist was set up to discourage the use of shell structures abroad, which in many cases are legal but may hide illicit activities.

It took nearly a year for EU experts to screen an initial 92 jurisdictions around the world before identifying 17 in December that could favor tax avoidance.

EU countries were not screened. They were deemed to be already in line with EU standards against tax avoidance, although anti-corruption activists and lawmakers have repeatedly asked for some EU members such as Malta and Luxembourg to be blacklisted.
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Mexico is looking into ways to deepen energy cooperation with Jamaica, Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said on Tuesday on a Caribbean trip to promote U.S.-backed efforts to erode Venezuela’s diplomatic influence.

Videgaray said he was hoping to get more Mexican firms to come to Jamaica as suppliers of oil and as potential investors in developing Jamaican oil resources.

Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced that Mexico, Canada and the United States were looking at how to mitigate the effect sanctions on OPEC-member Venezuela would have in the Caribbean.

Videgaray, who visited St. Lucia before Jamaica, said deeper Mexican-Jamaican energy ties could serve as a model elsewhere in the island region.

“Whatever we do in Jamaica can be a learning experience for what we do with other Caribbean countries,” he said, without directly mentioning efforts to weaken Venezuela’s support among countries grateful for past oil largesse.

While Jamaica no longer imports Venezuelan crude, it was a founding member of the South American nation’s Petrocaribe program that provided cheap loans for oil to Caribbean nations.

The legacy of the program has helped Venezuela win votes in the Organization of American States to defeat motions against President Nicolas Maduro, whose socialist government has overseen an economic crisis in Venezuela.

Mexico’s oil output has fallen sharply and the energy ministry has said it would be difficult for the country to replace Petrocaribe. 

“We are a market-based economy and any kind of cooperation that we do, and any business that we foster, is according to market principles,” said Videgaray, standing next to his Jamaican counterpart Kamina Johnson Smith.

He added Mexico would be signing a memorandum of understanding to provide technical support to Jamaica’s oil refinery, Petrojam, which is jointly owned by a unit of Venezuelan national oil company PDVSA.

Jamaica already buys spot cargos of crude from Mexico, a major oil supplier to the United States.

Mexico has been gradually opening up its oil sector following a constitutional reform in 2013 that ended decades of monopoly control by national oil company Pemex. Its ability to maximize crude processing has been hobbled, however, by little new investment, accidents and natural disasters.
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Kenyan coffee has an international reputation for good quality. But Kenya’s coffee industry is struggling as production levels have dropped and a younger generation shows little interest in farming. VOA’s Daniel Schearf reports from Kirinyaga County, Kenya.
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U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his pledge to impose stiff tariffs on imported steel and aluminum Monday. The plan sparked outcry and criticism from the international community, including from members of Trump’s party. VOA’s Jesusemen Oni has more.
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The Trump administration’s proposal to expand offshore drilling off the Pacific Northwest coast is drawing vocal opposition in a region where multimillion-dollar fossil fuel projects have been blocked in recent years.

The governors of Washington and Oregon, many in the state’s congressional delegation and other top state officials have criticized Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s plan to open 90 percent of the nation’s offshore reserves to development by private companies.

They say it jeopardizes the environment and the health, safety and economic well-being of coastal communities.

Opponents spoke out Monday at a hearing that a coalition of groups organized in Olympia, Washington, on the same day as an “open house” hosted by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.

Attorney General Bob Ferguson told dozens gathered — some wearing yellow hazmat suits and holding “Stop Trump’s Big Oil Giveways” signs — that he will sue if the plan is approved.

“What this administration has done with this proposal is outrageous,” he said.

Oil and gas exploration and drilling is not permitted in state waters.

In announcing the plan to vastly open federal waters to oil and gas drilling, Zinke has said responsible development of offshore energy resources would boost jobs and economic security while providing billions of dollars to fund conservation along U.S. coastlines.

His plan proposes 47 leases off the nation’s coastlines from 2019 to 2024, including one off Washington and Oregon.

Oil industry groups have praised the plan, while environmental groups say it would harm oceans, coastal economies, public health and marine life.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee met with Zinke over the weekend while in D.C. for the National Governors Association conference and again urged him to remove Washington from the plan, Inslee spokeswoman Tara Lee said Monday.

There hasn’t been offshore oil drilling in Washington or Oregon since the 1960s.

There hasn’t been much interest in offshore oil and gas exploration in recent decades though technology has improved, said Washington’s state geologist David Norman.

“It’s a very active place tectonically. We have a really complicated tough geology. It’s got really rough weather,” Norman said.

There’s more potential for natural gas than oil off the Pacific Northwest, said BOEM spokesman John Romero. A 2016 assessment estimates undiscovered recoverable oil at fractions of the U.S. total.

Proponents have backed the idea as a way to provide affordable energy, meet growing demands and to promote the U.S.’s “energy dominance.” Emails to representatives with the Western States Petroleum Association and the American Petroleum Institute were not immediately returned Monday.

Sixteen members of Washington and Oregon’s congressional delegation last month wrote to Zinke to oppose the plan, saying gas drilling off the Northwest coastline poses a risk to the state’s recreational, fishing and maritime economy.

Kyle Deerkop, who manages an oyster farm in Grays Harbor for Oregon-based Pacific Seafood, worried an oil spill would put jobs and the livelihood of people at risk.

“We need to be worried,” he said in an interview, recalling a major 1988 oil spill in Grays Harbor. “It’s too great a risk.”

Tribal members, business owners and environmentalists spoke at the so-called people’s hearing Monday organized by Stand Up To Oil coalition.

The groups wanted to allow people to speak into a microphone before a crowd because the federal agency’s open house didn’t allow that. Instead the open house allowed people to directly talk to staff or submit comments using laptops provided.
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