U.S. stocks clawed most of their way back from a deep slide Thursday that at one point had wiped out the market’s gains for the year. 

 

An early plunge briefly knocked more than 700 points off the Dow Jones industrial average as the arrest of a senior Chinese technology executive threatened to cause another flare-up in tensions between Washington and Beijing. 

 

The sell-off eased by late afternoon, however, after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve is considering breaking with its current approach of steady interest rate hikes, favoring a wait-and-see approach. That was relief to investors worried that the Fed might raise interest rates too fast, which could choke off economic growth.  

No ‘rigid schedule’ of hikes

  

“The Fed is trying to, in essence, come out and make it clear they are not on a rigid schedule of rate hikes next year,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.  

  

The S&P 500 index fell 4.11 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,695.95. The benchmark index had been down as much as 2.9 percent.  

  

The Dow dropped 79.40 points, or 0.3 percent, to 24,947.67. The average had briefly slumped as much as 784 points.  

  

The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite reversed an early loss to finish with a gain, adding 29.83 points, or 0.4 percent, to 7,188.26. 

 

The Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks gave up 3.34 points, or 0.2 percent, to 1,477.41. 

 

Traders continued to shovel money into bonds, a signal that they see weakness in the economy ahead. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.89 percent from 2.92 percent on Tuesday, a large move. 

 

U.S. stock and bond trading were closed Wednesday because of a national day of mourning for President George H.W. Bush.  

  

Losses in banks and energy and industrial stocks outweighed gains in internet and real estate companies.  

  

Citigroup fell 3.5 percent to $60.06. Halliburton slid 4.7 percent to $29.79. Discovery climbed 4.7 percent to $26.99. 

 

Last week, stocks jumped after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the central bank might consider a pause in rate hikes next year while it gauges the impact of its credit tightening program.  

Fed meeting ahead

  

The Fed has raised rates three times this year and is expected to boost rates for a fourth time at its Dec. 18-19 meeting of policymakers. That steady pace of rate hikes has begun to worry some investors amid growing signs that some sectors of the economy are hurting, including the U.S. housing market. At the same time, there has been growing evidence that global economic growth is slowing. 

 

“The market seems right now to be focused on increased risks for a 2020 recession,” said Patrick Schaffer, Global Investment Specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. “It’s a very hard market to buy when you see really strong signals that we are indeed late [in the economic] cycle.” ​

Thursday’s initial wave of selling in the market came about as traders reacted to the news that Canadian authorities arrested the chief financial officer of China’s Huawei Technologies on Wednesday for possible extradition to the U.S. The Globe and Mail newspaper, citing law enforcement sources, said Meng Wanzhou is suspected of trying to evade U.S. trade curbs on Iran. 

 

Meng is a prominent member of Chinese society as deputy chairman of the board and the daughter of company founder Ren Zhengfei. China demanded Meng’s immediate release. 

 

The arrest came less than a week after President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Argentina. 

 

Markets rallied on Monday on news that Trump and Xi agreed to a 90-day stand-down in their trade dispute. That optimism quickly faded as skepticism grew that Beijing will yield to U.S. demands anytime soon, leading to a steep sell-off in global markets on Tuesday. 

Positive remarks from Beijing

 

On Thursday, China’s government said it would promptly carry out the tariff cease-fire with Washington. It also expressed confidence that the two nations can reach a trade agreement. The remarks suggest Beijing wants to avoid disruptions from Meng’s arrest.  

  

Even so, investors remained skeptical.  

  

“Trade tensions aren’t going away,” Schaffer said. “Contradictory statements from the administration have given some people a little bit of pause with respect to the optimism that people felt following the Argentina G-20 conference.” 

 

The renewed jitters over the implications that Meng’s arrest could have on U.S.-China trade negotiations weighed on overseas markets. 

 

In Europe, the DAX in Germany dropped 3.5 percent, while France’s CAC 40 lost 3.3 percent. The FTSE 100 in Britain declined 3.1 percent, its biggest drop since the country held a vote to leave the European Union in June 2016.  

  

The news also resulted in another down day for markets in Asia. 

 

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled 2.5 percent and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 1.9 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.2 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi sank 1.6 percent. Shares also fell in Taiwan and all other regional markets. 

 

Oil prices fell sharply as traders appeared to doubt that an expected production cut by OPEC will be enough to boost the price of crude. Benchmark U.S. crude dropped 2.6 percent to settle at $51.49 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, used to price international oils, slid 2.4 percent to close at $60.06 per barrel. 
…

The US trade deficit hit a 10-year high in October as Americans used a stronger dollar to snap up record imports, the government reported Thursday.

The result showed the trade gap has continued to swell despite the punitive tariffs imposed this year on allies and adversaries alike by US President Donald Trump, who has focused intently on the subject with the goal of reducing the deficit.

Amid Trump’s high-stakes trade war with Beijing, the total trade gap rose 1.7 percent to $55.5 billion, driven by all-time high imports, according to the Commerce Department.

The gap in goods trade with China likewise continued to expand, rising two percent to $38 billion, seasonally adjusted, as key exports like soybeans fell.

The October figure handily overshot analyst expectations, and could confirm weaker economic growth in the final quarter of 2018.

Americans bought more medications and imported autos while also taking more vacations, benefiting from the stronger US currency.

Travel by Americans also rose by $200 million, driving up US services imports to a record $46.9 billion.

The deficit in goods also was the highest on record at more than $78 billion, as US imports of goods and services hit a high as well, rising 1.5 percent to $266.5 billion.

Auto imports — another subject on which Trump is battling European leaders — likewise hit their highest level ever, at $31.8 billion.

From January to October, the total trade deficit rose more than 11 percent compared to the same period last year, and the gap in September was $555 million bigger than initially reported.

Long-suffering soy exports, victim of China’s retaliatory tariffs since July, fell by another $800 million in October while exports of aircraft and parts, also sensitive to trade relations, fell $600 million.

Meanwhile, there were declines in imports of computers and telecommunications equipment but not enough to offset the strong gains in pharmaceutical and auto imports for the month.
…

OPEC countries were gathered Thursday to find a way to support the falling price of oil, with analysts predicting the cartel and key ally Russia would agree to cut production by at least 1 million barrels per day.

Crude prices have been falling since October because major producers — including the U.S. — are pumping oil at high rates and due to fears that weaker economic growth could dampen energy demand. The price of oil fell 22 percent in November and was down again on Thursday amid speculation that OPEC’s action might be too timid to support the market.

Saudi Arabia, the heavyweight within OPEC, said Thursday it was in favor of a cut.

“I think a million (barrels a day) will be adequate personally,” Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih said upon arriving to the meeting in Vienna. That, he said, would include production for both OPEC countries as well as non-OPEC countries, like Russia, which have in recent years been coordinating their production limits with the cartel.

That view was echoed by others, including the oil ministers of Nigeria and Iraq.

“I am optimistic that the agreement will stabilize the market, will stop the slide in the price (of oil),” said Iraq’s Thamir Ghadhban.

Investors did not seem convinced, however, and were pushing the price of oil down sharply again on Thursday, with some experts saying there is concern about the size of the cut. The international benchmark for crude, Brent, was down $1.52 at $60.04 a barrel.

“The cartel has to go above and beyond the 1 million barrels cut, to at least 1.4 million to really steady the ship,” said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com.

The fall in the price of oil will be a help to many consumers as well as energy-hungry businesses, particularly at a time when global growth is slowing. And U.S. President Donald Trump has been putting pressure publicly on OPEC to not cut production. He tweeted Wednesday that “Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The World does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!”

While Saudi Arabia has indicated it is willing to cut production, its decision may be complicated by Trump’s decision to not sanction the country over the killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. Senators say, after a briefing with intelligence services, that they are convinced that Saudi’s de-facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman , was involved in Khashoggi’s death. Some experts say that gives the U.S. some leverage over the Saudis, though Al-Falih denied that on Thursday.

When asked if the Saudis had permission from Trump to cut production, Al-Falih replied: “I don’t need permission from any foreign governments.”

Experts say this week’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will influence the price of oil over the coming months. How strongly it does so could depend on Russia’s contribution, which will be determined in a meeting on Friday.

Analysts estimate that if Russia is willing to step up its production cuts, OPEC and non-OPEC countries could trim production by a combined 1.3-1.4 million barrels a day. A cut of 1 million barrels would be the minimum to support the market, and anything less could see the price of oil fall another $10 a barrel, according to Wilson.

“The stakes are high now for OPEC,” he said.

OPEC’s reliance on non-members like Russia highlights the cartel’s waning influence in oil markets, which it had dominated for decades. The OPEC-Russia alliance was made necessary in 2016 to compete with the United States’ vastly increased production of oil in recent years. By some estimates, the U.S. this year became the world’s top crude producer.

OPEC is also riven by internal conflict, especially between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. One of the key questions in Thursday’s talks is whether to exempt Iran from having to cut production, as its energy industry is already hobbled by U.S. sanctions on its crude exports.

Meanwhile, Qatar, a Saudi rival and Iranian ally, said this week it would leave OPEC in January. While it said it was purely a practical decision because it mainly produces natural gas and little oil, the move was viewed as a symbolic snub to the Saudi-dominated organization.
…

The “yellow vests” in France are worrying greens around the world.

The worst riots in Paris in decades were sparked by higher fuel taxes, and French President Emmanuel Macron responded by scrapping them Wednesday. But taxes on fossil fuels are just what international climate negotiators, meeting in Poland this week, say are desperately needed to help wean the world off of fossil fuels and slow climate change.

“The events of the last few days in Paris have made me regard the challenges as even greater than I thought earlier,” said Stanford University environmental economist Lawrence Goulder, author of the book “Confronting the Climate Challenge.”

Economists, policymakers and politicians have long said the best way to fight climate change is to put a higher price on the fuels that are causing it — gasoline, diesel, coal and natural gas. Taxing fuels and electricity could help pay for the damage they cause, encourage people to use less, and make it easier for cleaner alternatives and fuel-saving technologies to compete.

These so-called carbon taxes are expected to be a major part of pushing the world to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and try to prevent runaway climate change that economists say would be far more expensive over the long term than paying more for energy in the short term.

But it’s not so easy for people to think about long-term, global problems when they are struggling to get by.

Macron said the higher tax was his way of trying to prevent the end of the world. But the yellow vest protesters turned that around with the slogan: “it’s hard to talk about the end of the world while we are talking about the end of the month.”

The resistance to the fuel tax is a personal blow to Macron, who sees himself as the guarantor of the 2015 Paris climate accord, its strongest defender on the global stage. He has positioned himself as the anti-Trump when it comes to climate issues.

The French government quietly fears a Trump-led backlash against the accord could spread to other major economies whose commitment is essential to keeping the deal together.

The fuel tax was not originally Macron’s idea; it dates back to previous administrations. But he vigorously defended it and won the presidency in part on a promise to fight climate change.

So what went wrong?

Yale University economist William Nordhaus, who won this year’s Nobel prize for economics, said the tax was poorly designed and was delivered by the wrong person. “If you want to make energy taxes unpopular, step one is to be an unpopular leader,” he said. “Step two is to use gasoline taxes and call them carbon taxes. This is hard enough without adding poor design.”

Macron, like French presidents before him, made environmental and energy decisions without explaining to the public how important they are and how their lives will change. He’s also seen as the “president of the rich” — his first fiscal decision as president was scrapping a wealth tax. So hiking taxes on gasoline and diesel was seen as especially unfair to the working classes in the provinces who need cars to get to work and whose incomes have stagnated for years.

The French government already has programs in place to subsidize drivers who trade in older, dirtier cars for cleaner ones, and expanded them in an attempt to head off the protests last month. But for many French, it was too little, too late.

The French reaction to higher fuel prices is hardly unique, which highlights just how hard it can be to discourage fossil fuel consumption by making people pay more. In September, protests in India over high gasoline prices shut down schools and government offices. Protests erupted in Mexico in 2017 after government deregulation caused a spike in gasoline prices, and in Indonesia in 2013 when the government reduced fuel subsidies and prices rose.

In the United States, Washington state voters handily defeated a carbon tax in November.

“Higher taxes on fuel have always been a policy more popular among economists than among voters,” said Greg Mankiw, a Harvard economist and former adviser to President George W. Bush.

Even proponents of carbon taxes acknowledge that they can disproportionally hurt low-income people. Energy costs make up a larger portion of their overall expenses, so a fuel price increase eats up more of their paycheck and leaves them with less to spend. And because energy costs are almost impossible to avoid, they feel trapped.

It is also not lost on them that it is the rich, unbothered by fuel taxes, who are hardest on the environment because they travel and consume more.

“The mistake of the Macron government was not to marry the increase in fuel taxes with other sufficiently compelling initiatives promising to enhance the welfare and incomes of the ‘yellow vests,’ said Barry Eichengreen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

Now the question is “How can we address the climate problem while also avoiding producing political upheaval,” Goulder said.

The key is giving a good chunk of money back to the people, Wesleyan University environmental economist Gary Yohe said.

Many economists back proposals that would tax carbon, but then use that money to offer tax rebates or credits that would benefit lower-income families.

The protests, while sparked by fuel prices, are also about income inequality, populism and anti-elitism, experts say, not just about carbon taxes.

“Is it a death knell for the carbon tax or pricing carbon? I don’t think so,” economist Yohe said. “It is just a call for being a little bit more careful about how you design the damn thing.”
…

OPEC and Russia moved closer on Wednesday to agreeing cuts in oil production from next year despite pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to reduce the price of crude.

OPEC meets on Thursday in Vienna, followed by talks with allies such as Russia on Friday. OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, has indicated a need for steep output reductions from January, fearing a glut, but Russia has resisted a large cut.

“All of us including Russia agreed there is a need for a reduction,” Oman’s Oil Minister Mohammed bin Hamad Al-Rumhy told reporters after a ministerial committee that groups Saudi Arabia, Russia and several other producers met on Wednesday.

 

WATCH: Analysts: OPEC Meeting in Vienna to Result in Less Production

Exact volumes were still being discussed, he said. The cuts would take September or October 2018 as baseline figures and last from January to June.

Two OPEC delegates said Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak was flying back to Moscow on Wednesday to get a final agreement from President Vladimir Putin.

Saudi Arabia has indicated it wants the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to curb output by at least 1.3 million barrels per day, or 1.3 percent of global production.

Riyadh wants Moscow to contribute at least 250,000-300,000 bpd to the cut but Russia insists the amount should be only half of that, OPEC and non-OPEC sources said.

Russia’s TASS news agency quoted an OPEC source as saying OPEC and its allies were discussing the idea of reducing output next year by reverting to production quotas agreed in 2016.

Such a move would mean cutting production by more than 1 million bpd. Saudi Arabia, Russia and the UAE have raised output since June after Trump called for higher production to compensate for lower Iranian exports due to new U.S. sanctions.

Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States have been vying for the position of top crude producer in recent years. The United States is not part of any output-limiting initiative due to its anti-trust legislation and fragmented oil industry. Trump raises pressure

Oil prices have fallen by almost a third since October to around $62 per barrel after Saudi Arabia raised production to make up for the drop in Iranian exports. Washington also gave sanctions waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude, further raising fears of an oil glut next year.

“Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The world does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!” Trump wrote in a tweet on Wednesday.

Possibly complicating any OPEC decision is the crisis around the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October. Trump has backed Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman despite calls from many U.S. politicians to impose stiff sanctions on Riyadh.

“How can the Saudis cut substantially if Trump doesn’t want a big cut?” said Gary Ross, chief executive of U.S.-based Black Gold Investors and a veteran OPEC watcher.

“Trump is worried about the Fed and inflation. So he wants low prices now. Also if Saudis are obnoxious with a deep output cut, it will spur the Democrats in Congress to go more actively for the Nopec legislation and the withdrawal of U.S. support for the Saudi-backed forces in the war in Yemen,” Ross said.

The Nopec legislation being discussed by U.S. lawmakers could make it possible to sue Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members for price fixing.

Bob McNally, president of U.S.-based Rapidan Energy Group, said OPEC was stuck between a rock and a hard place given pressure from Trump on one hand and the need for higher revenues on the other.

“We think OPEC will try to come up with a fuzzy production cut … It won’t be called a cut but will effectively mean a cut, which will also be difficult to quantify,” McNally said.
…

A new study estimates 164 million people are migrating to foreign countries in search of work, an increase of 9 percent since 2013.

The majority of migrant workers are men between the ages of 25 and 64, according to the International Labor Organization’s second edition of Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers. While the number of migrant workers in upper-middle-income countries has grown, the report finds the vast majority head for richer countries in North America, Europe and the Arab region, particularly the Gulf States.

Manuela Tomei, director of the ILO Conditions of Work and Equality Department, tells VOA most of the people who migrate for work are low skilled, and employed in fields such as construction, agriculture, the hospitality industry or as domestic help.

She says migrant workers are a key factor in boosting the economies and development of rich countries and in the higher brackets of upper-middle-income countries.

“Their main contribution is through the work, the services that they provide to host communities in sectors and occupations, in jobs in which often nationals are not interested to work any longer,” Tomei said.

Unfortunately, she noted, the influx of migrants into foreign countries often creates a backlash. Instead of welcoming the workers as being beneficial to their societies, host communities often react with hostility.

In coming years, she said, these workers increasingly will be needed because of demographic trends and rapidly aging populations. Labor migration is a long-term trend, she added, urging governments to learn how to manage workers for their mutual benefit.
…

U.S. President Donald Trump, who rattled global markets Tuesday after declaring himself “a Tariff Man,” predicted in a series of tweets Wednesday the United States and China would negotiate a new trade deal.

Trump said China is planning to resume buying U.S. soybeans and natural gas, which he said confirms his claims that China had agreed to start “immediately” buying U.S. products.”

Trump said he believes “President Xi (Jinping) meant every word of what he said” at their meeting recently in Argentina, including “his promise to me to criminalize the sale of deadly Fentanyl coming into the United States.”

The president’s optimistic comments came one day after stock prices around the world plunged in response to a series of tweets he posted on Tuesday, warning a fragile accord between the two countries could crumble.

Stocks in the U.S., Europe and Asia fell sharply after Trump declared himself “a Tariff Man” who wants “people or countries” with intentions to “raid the great wealth” of the U.S. “to pay for the privilege of doing so.”

Trump and President Xi, leaders of the world’s two biggest economies, agreed Saturday in Argentina to not impose any new tariffs on each other’s exports for the next 90 days while they negotiate a detailed trade agreement.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said earlier this week the U.S. won Chinese commitments to buy more than $1 trillion in American products.

The U.S. had a $335.4 billion trade deficit with China in 2017.

Late Sunday, Trump tweeted that “China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently, the tariff is at 40 percent

On Monday, Kudlow said there was an “assumption” that China would eliminate auto tariffs, not a specific agreement.

China’s ministry of foreign affairs said Monday the Chinese and U.S. president had agreed to work toward removing all tariffs.

The 90-day truce in the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China came during a dinner meeting between the two presidents following the G-20 summit of the world’s industrialized and emerging economies in Buenos Aires.  For months, the two countries have engaged in tit-for-tat increases in tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of exports flowing between the two countries.

Trump, speaking to reporters on Air Force One after the plane departed Argentina, said his agreement with Xi, will go down “as one of the largest deals ever made… And it’ll have an incredibly positive impact on farming, meaning agriculture, industrial products, computers — every type of product.”

Trump agreed he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products at 10 percent, and not raise it to 25 percent as he has threatened to do Jan. 1, according to a White House statement.

Trump and Xi also agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture, according to the White House statement.
…

President Donald Trump insists his new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada will address the exporting of U.S. manufacturing jobs overseas. That pledge, however, comes on the heels of auto giant General Motors’ announcement of the layoff of 14,000 employees in five factories in the United States and Canada.

Despite the president’s optimistic pronouncements, the General Motors announcement indicates broader market shifts in the automotive industry that are unlikely to be reversed.

General Motors justified the decision as a result of shifting economic trends that have seen consumer preferences shift away from mid-sized vehicles and toward sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and electric cars. The company said the move “is transforming its global workforce to ensure the right skill sets for today and the future.”

Those moves toward increased efficiency also include a 25 percent cut of the executive workforce.

But in Lordstown, Ohio, workers whose livelihoods have depended on jobs in GM factories struggled to understand the move.

Mid-sized autos

The Lordstown plant manufactures the Chevy Cruze, one of the mid-sized cars auto manufacturers no longer see as profitable. Trump specifically addressed the impact on the Lordstown plant shortly after GM’s decision, saying, “They say the Chevy Cruze is not selling well. I say, ‘Well, get a car that is selling well and put it back in.'”

Workers are holding on to that hope with the Lordstown plant in an “unallocated status” that leaves open the possibility of GM moving in another product. Local union leader Dave Green acknowledged that issues with the Chevy Cruze were part of an overall industry trend away from smaller cars. 

“They’re not building cars, sedans anymore, but people are still buying cars,” Green told VOA. “Part of it is that they need to be priced right and they need to be priced fair. If I can go into a dealership and lease an SUV cheaper than a Chevy Cruze — you know, most Americans want more for less. So they’re going to get the bigger, the better, the more for less and it is what it is. I think the car was priced a little out of its range.”

The 6.2-million-square-foot Lordstown plant is well-placed in the center of the country, with easy access to major highway artery Interstate Highway 80 and an infrastructure of secondary plants.

Green said 80 percent of the plant’s production is sold within a 600-mile radius. “GM would be foolish to walk away from it,” he said.

The 1,600 workers anticipating a March 2019 layoff from the Lordstown plant certainly hope that’s the case. They earn $30-40 an hour compared to the next best option in the area, $10 an hour at the aluminum factory.

Lordstown is part of the broader Warren-Youngstown, Ohio, area that once thrived on the presence of steel mill manufacturing. When those plants shut down in the 1970s and ’80s, the auto industry became the lifeblood of the local economy.

“That’s is the largest plant that we have,” said Trish Williams, owner of the Ice House restaurant in Austintown, Ohio. She has several family members and friends who have worked at the GM plant in the past and present.

“That keeps this town going. Our steel mills are gone. Our factories are gone. [Hewlitt] Packard is closed. General Electric is gone. Chrysler is gone and GM was it. GM was what kept this here — it may turn into a ghost town,” Williams said.

‘Don’t sell your house’

Trump visited Youngstown in July 2017, telling workers, “Don’t sell your house. Don’t sell your house. Do not sell it. We’re going to get those values up. We’re going to get those jobs coming back. And we’re going to fill up those factories, or rip them down and build brand new ones.”

Many residents said they do not hold Trump responsible for GM’s decision, a move that could devastate the local economy.

“The president doesn’t own GM,” waitress Lisa Miller said. “Nor can he say you can’t do this, you can’t do that. We are a free country. I believe the president will push with all his might — as we’ve already seen him doing — to keep them here and to change things, but this was something that was out of his hands.”

Just days after the GM announcement, Miller said she was already noticing a drop in sales and an end to the usual lunch to-go orders from GM workers.

Some of those workers will be able to transfer to other plants around the country based on their seniority within GM. But many workers expressed concern to VOA about the number of temporary employees — who earn far lower rates per hour — working in those plants. They are also aware of GM’s plant in Mexico that builds the Chevy Blazer, an SUV.

“Why is our plant not getting the Blazer?” asked Rebecca Zak, an 18-year veteran of the Lordstown GM plant. “Why is it being built in Mexico? It’s mind-blowing. I heard in Ramos, Mexico, they get paid $2.65 an hour.”

Zak said she sees the decision as part of a trend toward corporations enriching themselves at the expense of the worker.

“We’re the ones that build this car, we are the ones that got this company this far and who are the ones who are suffering? The worker, not corporate America. Six billion dollars in the third-quarter and they can justify laying off 14,000 people,” she said.

GM workforce

Those 14,000 people represent just 7 percent of GM’s 180,000-person workforce, a strategic shift for a company in a competitive automotive market. What remains to be seen is whether that strategic shift will include places like Lordstown.

But as Lordstown employee Dan Smith said, “Any industry is cyclical. Gas could go up to $5 a gallon and then, poof, there goes the truck-SUV market. And they’re going to need small cars. It’s something we went through, my dad’s worked there.”

Smith said he was shocked by the decision but did not entirely fault GM for operating a plant in Mexico with lower-paid labor.

“Business-wise that makes sense, but then to sell it here in the United States doesn’t make much sense for American people to buy an American car that’s built in another country,” he told VOA.

For Williams, waiting to see how the decision impacts her community and her business, the equation seemed simple.

“Smaller cars, bigger cars — they all have four wheels,” she said. “They’ve made other cars off that line — why not bring another car back?”

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Right-wing President-elect Jair Bolsonaro said on Tuesday he plans to tackle the overhaul of Brazil’s fiscally burdensome pension system with piecemeal reforms that can pass Congress, starting with an increase in the minimum age of retirement.

He said reforms should start with the public social security system and advance gradually to make sure they pass Congress.

“The idea is to start with the (minimum) age, attack the privileges and take it forward,” Bolsonaro said at a news conference, warning that the problem with the cost of the pension system was growing every year.

“We cannot allow Brazil to reach the situation that Greece reached to do something about it,” he said.

Brazil’s next president said he planned to start by raising the minimum age of retirement for everyone by two years, but keeping the gender age gap, building on a proposal made by incumbent President Michel Temer. He gave few details.

Currently, Brazilian men can retire after 35 years of contributions and women after 30 years. Men can also retire by age 65 and women at 60 as long as they have contributed for at least 15 years.

Generous pensions are a major cause of Brazil’s gaping budget deficit and growing public debt, an unsustainable situation that is becoming more acute as the population ages and more people retire.

Investors and credit rating agencies are watching Bolsonaro’s commitment to pension reform closely as it is key to reducing the deficit and restoring confidence in Latin America’s largest economy as it recovers slowly from a two-year recession.

The pension reform proposal by Temer’s outgoing government never gained enough traction in Congress.

Bolsonaro, who takes office on Jan. 1, began meetings with political parties on Tuesday to see how he can build support for his agenda that includes tax reform and the easing of gun laws.
…

Volkswagen AG’s chief executive said Tuesday after a meeting at the White House that the German automaker was building an alliance with Ford and might use the U.S. automaker’s plants to build cars. 

VW CEO Herbert Diess said the company was also “considering building a second car plant” in the United States, adding, “We are in quite advanced negotiations and dialog with Ford Corporation to really build up a global automotive alliance, which also would strengthen the American automotive industry.” 

Ford Executive Chairman Bill Ford Jr. told reporters at an event near Detroit on Tuesday that talks with Volkswagen about an alliance were going “very well.” 

Asked about Diess’ comments that VW could use some of Ford’s unused capacity for car production, Bill Ford said the companies “haven’t gotten that granular in our talks yet.” 

He said he did not want to say much about a VW alliance until the automaker had “a lot of definitive things to talk about.” 

The proposed alliance between Volkswagen and Ford suggests the days of carmakers going it alone are over, as tariffs, new technology and tougher emissions rules fragment markets that were once global, Reuters reported last week. 

Firms that once sought vehicles with universal global appeal to create economies of scale are now seeking advantages in specific market segments like hybrid SUVs, North American pickup trucks or European city cars. 

RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak said in a research note on Tuesday that Diess’ comments raised the chances that VW would use some of Ford’s unused capacity as part of a broader partnership. Spak also said that a European or Asian automaker could seek to acquire some of General Motors’ unused capacity. GM announced last week it plans to idle five North American plants. 

“VW may have a little negotiating power as some of the GM facilities could be bought (although this could impact their broader intentions with Ford),” Spak wrote. 

VW has an assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tenn. Of the need for a new plant, Diess said the company was in “quite advanced negotiations in Tennessee but there might be other options as well.” 

Diess said VW would not take an equity stake in Ford as part of its alliance. “We are building an alliance with Ford which will strengthen Ford’s position in Europe because we will share platforms,” he said. “We might use Ford capacity here in the U.S. to build cars for us.” 
…

The World Bank will give equal weight to curbing emissions and helping poor countries deal with the “disastrous effects” of a warming world as it steps up investments to tackle climate change in the first half of the 2020s, it said on Monday.

The bank and its two sister organizations plan to double their investments in climate action to about $200 billion from 2021-2025, with a boost in support for efforts to adapt to higher temperatures, wilder weather and rising seas.

The latest figures on international climate funding for developing nations show barely a quarter has been going to adaptation, with the bulk backing clean energy adoption and more efficient energy use, aimed at cutting planet-warming emissions.

“We live in a new normal in which disasters are more severe and more frequent,” World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva told the Thomson Reuters Foundation at U.N. climate talks in Poland.

“We have to prioritize adaptation everywhere, but especially in the most vulnerable parts of the world,” she said, pointing to the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, coastal regions and small island states.

Of the $100 billion the World Bank plans to make available in the five years from mid-2020, half would go to adaptation measures, it said.

Those include building more robust homes, schools and infrastructure, preparing farmers for climate shifts, managing water wisely and protecting people’s incomes through social safety nets, Georgieva added.

The World Bank said the money would also improve weather forecasts, and provide early warning and climate information services for 250 million people in 30 developing countries.

“Climate change is an existential threat to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable. These new targets demonstrate how seriously we are taking this issue,” World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said in a statement.

From 2014-2018, the World Bank spent nearly $21 billion on adaptation, which accounted for just over 40 percent of the climate benefits generated by the institution’s funding overall.

Former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the bank’s pledge to use half its climate finance to find solutions to deal with changing weather patterns was “important.”

“Climate change is already having a disastrous impact on people right around the world and we are nearing the point of no return,” said Ban. “So we must take bold action to adapt to the reality of the threat facing us all.”

A recently launched Global Commission on Adaptation, which Ban chairs with Georgieva and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, aims to put political muscle behind efforts to keep people safer in a hotter world.

The remaining $100 billion in promised World Bank Group funding will come from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), which works with the private sector, and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, as well as private capital the group raises.

“There are literally trillions of dollars of opportunities for the private sector to invest in projects that will help save the planet,” said IFC chief Philippe Le Houérou.

The IFC will identify opportunities, use tools to make investments less risky, and attract private-sector cash in areas including renewable energy, green buildings, clean transport in cities and urban waste management, he added.

Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine said her low-lying Pacific island state was struggling with fiercer storms and increasing seawater flooding that is contaminating fresh water with salt.

The new World Bank funds would “help to build resilience, make us safer, and improve lives,” she said.

“Global action needs to accelerate before it is too late,” she added.

The “Big Shift Global” coalition of aid agencies and climate justice campaigners said the World Bank Group’s new commitment signaled that developing countries should receive far more support to tackle climate change.

But it overlooked “the desperate need to radically scale up financing for off-grid renewable energy” to help the poorest gain access to electricity, they added.
…

It’s going to be a cozy Christmas this year as more Americans shop for comfortable apparel and accessories like fuzzy sweatshirts and sweaters, pajamas, socks and slippers.

“I think we’re overstressed and the coziness is maybe an escape to a better time,” says industry analyst Maria Rugolo of the NPD Group, who adds that a desire for comfort, convenience and versatility extends to other products as well.

“We’re seeing those weighted blankets even, where they’re supposed to relieve stress and take away your anxiety,” she says. “Again, we’re overall a stressed-out nation where technology keeps us very connected to our work lives and what’s going on and we never get to disconnect, but maybe we do a little bit in our homes and we want to invest in it.”

Rugolo says this desire for cozy comfort is driving sales of smart homing devices — such as virtual assistants and autonomous robotic vacuums — as people stay home more.

According to NPD’s 2018 Holiday Purchase Intentions survey, 1 in 3 shoppers plans to buy products for their home this holiday season.

Traditional favorites like blenders, electric toothbrushes and espresso makers are expected to do well, too.

People are also hosting more game nights and other stay-at-home activities, according to Rugolo.

“When you’re doing those kinds of activities, you also want to look comfortable and fashionable at the same time so it’s fashion and function working together,” she says. “We even said it was spashion, which is where sports meets fashion because it wasn’t necessarily that you were going to be dressed to run a marathon, but you still wanted to look fashionable in your activewear and your loungewear.”

Clothing and accessories, entertainment, toys and electronics are expected to be the top-selling categories this holiday, according to the NPD survey.

Shoppers intend to spend an average of $693 on holiday gifts this year. The survey finds that the biggest spenders of all will be Americans over the age of 73, followed closely by the baby boomers, people between the ages of 54 and 72.

The calendar has already given retailers their holiday gift. December 25 falls on a Tuesday this year, which gives Americans more weekends to shop between Black Friday — the day after Thanksgiving, which many view as the official start of the holiday shopping season — and Christmas Day.

In addition, a strong economy might lead shoppers to open their wallets a little wider.

“I think the expectation is that there will be more spend this holiday,” Rugolo says. “Unemployment is really low right now and consumer confidence is high.”
…

U.S. President Donald Trump boasted Monday of his “very strong and personal relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, declaring a new U.S.-China trade deal would immediately allow American farmers to sell more of their products to Beijing.

Stock markets in Asia and Europe jumped sharply after Trump and Xi, as leaders of the world’s two biggest economies, agreed Saturday in Argentina to not impose any new tariffs on each other’s exports for the next 90 days while they negotiate a detailed trade agreement.

U.S. stock indexes also opened sharply higher in New York at the start of a new work week, with the widely watched Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 key stocks ahead more than 1.5 percent.

“My meeting in Argentina with President Xi of China was an extraordinary one,” Trump said on Twitter. “Relations with China have taken a BIG leap forward! Very good things will happen.”

The United States had a $335.4 billion trade deficit with China in 2017. Trump said, however, “We are dealing from great strength, but China likewise has much to gain if and when a deal is completed. Level the field!”

The U.S. leader said U.S. farmers “will be a very BIG and FAST beneficiary of our deal with China. They intend to start purchasing agricultural product immediately. We make the finest and cleanest product in the World, and that is what China wants. Farmers, I LOVE YOU!”

Late Sunday, Trump tweeted that “China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently the tariff is 40 percent.”

On Monday, China’s ministry of foreign affairs said the Chinese and U.S. presidents had agreed to work towards removing all tariffs.

WATCH:  Trump-Xi Dinner in Argentina Leads to Trade War Truce

Trump said he and Xi “are the only two people that can bring about massive and very positive change, on trade and far beyond, between our two great Nations. A solution for North Korea is a great thing for China and ALL!”

Trump, at his political rallies and news conferences, often praises the increase in U.S. military spending during his nearly two years in the White House.

But he tweeted that at “at some time in the future,” Xi, Russian President Vladimir Putin of Russia, and he “will start talking about a meaningful halt to what has become a major and uncontrollable Arms Race. The U.S. spent 716 Billion Dollars this year. Crazy!”

The 90-day truce in the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China came during a dinner meeting between the two presidents following the G-20 summit of the world’s biggest economies in Buenos Aires. For months, the two countries have engaged in tit-for-tat increases in tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of exports flowing between the two countries.

Trump, speaking to reporters on Air Force One after the plane departed Argentina, said his agreement with Xi, will go down “as one of the largest deals ever made. … And it’ll have an incredibly positive impact on farming, meaning agriculture, industrial products, computers — every type of product.”

Trump agreed he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products at 10 percent, and not raise it to 25 percent as he has threatened to do January 1, according to a White House statement.

“China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries,” said White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders. “China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.”

Trump and Xi also agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture, according to the White House statement. “Both parties agree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10 percent tariffs will be raised to 25 percent,” the statement said.
…

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is warning the world is “in deep trouble with climate change.”

Speaking Monday at the opening of two weeks of climate talks in Poland, Guterres said it is “the most important gathering on climate change since the Paris Agreement was signed.” He called on the nearly 200 countries represented in Katowice, Poland, to take the issue seriously, and commit to the course of action agreed to in Paris in 2015.

Signatories to the landmark 2015 Paris Accord pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit the rise in global temperatures to less than two degrees Celsius by 2030.

To reach this goal, emissions must be halved from 2010 levels by 2030, Guterres said.

“I remind all Parties that this is a deadline you set for yourselves and it is vital you meet it,” Guterres added.

Citing bleak recent reports, including one from the U.N. expert climate panel in October, Guterres noted devastation from hurricanes in Barbuda and Dominica which he called “heart-breaking,” but also “preventable.”

President Donald Trump has threatened to pull the U.S. out of the Paris agreement because of what he says is the economic damage the treaty’s provisions would cause.

Trump is a promoter of fossil fuels and nuclear power and has proposed renegotiating the Paris Accord — an idea many dismiss as impractical.

Host country Poland is expected to propose what it calls a “just transition” for the oil, gas, and coal industries to ease the financial blow from the move away from such polluting sources of energy.

But nations more immediately threatened by climate change, including Fiji, whose prime minister, Frank Bainimarama, served as president of last year’s climate conference, urged developed nations to act now to save the planet.

“Or, God forbid, [we] ignore the irrefutable evidence and become the generation that betrayed humanity,” Bainimarama said.

 
…

U.S. President Donald Trump has returned home from the Group of 20 meeting of the world’s top economies. After the curtain came down on the summit, the spotlight lingered on the leaders of the two top economies. As VOA’s White House bureau chief Steve Herman reports from Buenos Aires, in the end a truce was achieved in the escalating battle of tariffs between the United States and China.
…

The data stolen from the Marriott hotel empire in a massive breach is so rich and specific it could be used for espionage, identity theft, reputation attacks and even home burglaries, security experts say.

Hackers stole data on as many as 500 million guests of former Starwood chain properties over four years including credit card and passport numbers, birthdates, phone numbers and hotel arrival and departure dates.

It is one of the biggest data breaches on record. By comparison, last year’s Equifax hack affected more than 145 million people. A Target breach in 2013 affected more than 41 million payment card accounts and exposed contact information for more than 60 million customers.

Especially sensitive data

But the target here — hotels where high-stakes business deals, romantic trysts and espionage are daily currency — makes the data gathered especially sensitive.

Jesse Varsalone, a University of Maryland cybersecurity expert, said the affected reservation system could be extremely enticing to nation-state spies interested in the travels of military and senior government officials.

“There are just so many things you can extrapolate from people staying at hotels,” Varsalone said.

And because the data included reservations for future stays, along with home addresses, burglars could learn when someone wouldn’t be home, said Scott Grissom of LegalShield, a provider of legal services.

Starwood brand hotels

The affected hotel brands were operated by Starwood before it was acquired by Marriott in 2016. They include W Hotels, St. Regis, Sheraton, Westin, Element, Aloft, The Luxury Collection, Le Meridien and Four Points. Starwood-branded timeshare properties were also affected. None of the Marriott-branded chains were threatened.

Email notifications for those who may have been affected begin rolling out Friday and the full scope of the breach was not immediately clear.

Marriott was trying to determine if the purloined records included duplicates, such as a single person staying multiple times.

Breach undetected for a while

Security analysts were especially alarmed to learn of the breach’s undetected longevity. Marriott said it first detected it Sept. 8 but was unable to determine until last week what data had possibly been exposed because the thieves used encryption to remove it in order to avoid detection.

Marriott said it did not yet know how many credit card numbers might have been stolen. A spokeswoman said Saturday that it was not yet able to respond to questions such as whether the intrusion and data theft was committed by a single or multiple groups.

Cybersecurity expert Andrei Barysevich of Recorded Future said Saturday he believed the breach was financially motivated.

The cybercrime gang expert in credit card theft such as the eastern European group known as Fin7 could be a suspect, he said, noting that a dark web credit card vendor recently announced that 2.6 million cards stolen from an unnamed hotel chain would soon be available to the online criminal underworld.

“We will have to wait until an official forensic report, although, Marriott may never share their findings openly,” he said.

Marriott said the stolen credit card information was encrypted but the hackers may have obtained the “two components needed to decrypt the payment card numbers.” It said it cannot “rule out the possibility that both were taken.”

Privacy laws

For as many as two-thirds of those affected, the exposed data could include mailing addresses, phone numbers, email addresses and passport numbers. Also dates of birth, gender, reservation dates, arrival and departure times and Starwood Preferred Guest account information.

The breach of personal information could put Marriott in violation of new European privacy laws, as guests included European travelers.

Marriott set up a website and call center for customers who believe they are at risk.

The FBI said anyone contacted by Marriott should “take steps to monitor and safeguard their personally identifiable information and report any suspected instances of identity theft to the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center at www.ic3.gov.”

Passport numbers have previously been part of a hack, though it’s not common. They were among records on 9.4 million passengers of Hong Kong-based airline Cathay Pacific obtained in a breach announced in October.

Combined with names, addresses and other personal information, passport numbers are a greater concern than stolen credit card numbers because thieves could use them to open fraudulent accounts, said analyst Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com.

Hotels long a source of information

The data purloining highlights just how dangerous hotels can be for people worried about their privacy.

“Hotels have long been important government sources of local information for tracking foreigners: reservation systems and loyalty programs took the surveillance global and made it easier for us to give up our privacy,” said Colin Bastable, CEO of Lucy Security.

Intelligence agencies including the U.S. National Security are well plugged into the global travel industry “by fair means or foul,” he said, nongovernment cybercriminals now have the same hacking tools.

“Consumers have become collateral damage,” he said. “And we are all consumers.” He advises providing hotels with as little information as possible when making reservations and checking in.

Last year, the cybersecurity firm FireEye highlighted an effort in which Russian state agents allegedly tried to infiltrate the reservation systems of hotels in Europe and the Middle East.

21 million Starwood program members

When its acquisition by Marriott was first announced in 2015, Starwood had 21 million people in its loyalty program. The company manages more than 6,700 properties across the globe, most in North America.

Marriott, based in Bethesda, Maryland, said in a regulatory filing that it was too early to say what financial impact the breach might have on the company. It said it has cyber insurance and is working with its carriers to assess coverage.

Elected officials were quick to call for action.

The New York attorney general opened an investigation.

Virginia Sen. Mark Warner said the U.S. needs laws that limit the data companies can collect on customers and ensure that companies account for security costs rather than making consumers “shoulder the burden and harms resulting from these lapses.”
…

A U.S. judge in California has granted preliminary approval of a $48 million settlement for investors who said Volkswagen AG made false and misleading statements about its excess diesel emissions. 

Lawyers for the investors, who include police and other municipal pension funds, had estimated that the maximum they could have recovered was $147 million. But Judge Charles Breyer said the settlement agreed to in August appeared “fair, adequate and reasonable.” 

VW, in a statement, said Friday that the “proposed settlement agreement eliminates the uncertainty and considerable costs of protracted litigation in the United States and is in the best interests of the company.” The ruling was issued late Wednesday. 

Buybacks

In total, Volkswagen has agreed to pay more than $25 billion in the United States for claims from owners, environmental regulators, states and dealers, and has offered to buy back about 500,000 polluting U.S. vehicles. The buybacks will continue through 2019. 

The German automaker admitted in September 2015 to secretly installing software in nearly 500,000 U.S. cars to cheat government exhaust emissions tests. The vehicles had emitted up to 40 times the legally allowable pollutants. 

In 2017, VW also pleaded guilty of fraud, obstruction of justice and falsifying statements in a U.S. court. Under the plea deal, the automaker agreed to sweeping reforms, new audits and oversight by an independent monitor for three years. 

Federal prosecutors in Detroit unsealed criminal charges in May against former VW Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn, who remains in Germany. Two other former VW executives have pleaded guilty in the investigation and are in prison. 

In total, nine people have been charged in the United States. 

Breyer set a date for a fairness hearing to allow further comment on the August settlement for May 10, after which a final ruling will be issued. 
…

U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto have signed the new U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, a deal designed to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. White House Correspondent Patsy Widakuswara reports.
…

During Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s successful campaign for the Mexican presidency, his advisers met representatives of dozens of investment funds to allay fears about the leftist’s plans, saying he prized economic stability and wanted to attract foreign capital.

Initially, it worked.

When Lopez Obrador won office by a landslide on July 1, the peso and the stock market rose, buoyed by his conciliatory tone.

The rally continued when Mexico and the United States reached a deal to rework the NAFTA trade pact in late August.

But the mood has since changed.

Lopez Obrador, who takes office Saturday, began saying in September that Mexico was “bankrupt.” When he canceled a new $13 billion Mexico City airport on Oct. 29 on the basis of a widely-derided referendum, investors took flight.

“[Lopez Obrador] behaved quite well from the election in early July until the referendum on the airport. That was really an indication of his true colors,” said Penny Foley, portfolio manager for emerging markets and international equities groups at TCW Group Inc, which manages $198 billion in total.

Foley said the referendum prompted TCW to cut its exposure to bonds issued by state oil firm Pemex, on the grounds that under a Lopez Obrador administration the company would be driven more by politics than by profit.

“We are now slightly underweight Mexico in the dollar fund and neutral in the local currency fund,” she added.

Lopez Obrador wants to attract investment from home and abroad to fuel economic growth and drive an ambitious infrastructure agenda, including a major rail project linking Cancun to Mexico’s southeast, plus a new oil refinery.

Yet decisions such as the airport cancellation have fed investors’ concerns he could push Mexico toward a more authoritarian, arbitrary and partisan form of government.

Mexico’s S&P/BVM IPC stock index has tumbled 17 percent since the market’s post-election peak on Aug. 28, while the peso has fallen around 8 percent against the dollar.

Bond yields on Mexican 10-year sovereign debt have jumped 121 basis points, a sign investors see it as a riskier bet.

By contrast, yields on Brazil’s 10-year debt have fallen over 20 basis points since the Oct. 28 presidential election victory of Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right politician who has appointed a group of pro-market economists to his team. Mexican corporate debt markets have taken note.

Airport operator GAP, which controls terminals in a dozen cities including Tijuana and Guadalajara, canceled a planned 6 billion peso debt issuance this week.

“We decided to wait for better conditions,” GAP chief financial officer Saul Villarreal told Reuters.

Some European businesses are also in wait-and-see mode, said Alberico Peyron, a board member and former head of the Italian chamber of commerce in Mexico.

There was “no panic so far,” but a few executives had put plans on hold until the picture became clearer, he said, adding: “There are more who are worried than are optimistic.”

‘Errors’ made

After 30 years of kicking against the establishment, the veteran Lopez Obrador, a 65-year-old former mayor of Mexico City, claimed the presidency with a promise to clean up government, cut poverty and tame Mexico’s drug cartels.

Aiming to almost double economic growth to around 4 percent, Lopez Obrador wants to revive Pemex, increase pensions and spur development in the poorer south to contain illegal immigration that has strained ties with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Lopez Obrador says rooting out corruption will free up billions of dollars, while he intends to save more with pay cuts for civil servants. However, critics say the cuts could affect the quality of officials in his new administration.

Johannes Hauser, managing director of the German chamber of commerce in Mexico, told Reuters the association’s annual survey of firms, currently underway, was upbeat on Mexico.

Still, initial results suggested companies were not quite as eager to invest or create new jobs as they were a year ago. And the airport cancellation had been a shock, he said.

During their campaign outreach, some of Lopez Obrador’s advisers sought to play down the airport’s importance to markets, while others suggested it was likely to be completed.

Without providing evidence, Lopez Obrador said the project — which has been under construction since 2015 — was tainted by corruption. But more than once, Lopez Obrador had raised the possibility of turning its completion into a private concession.

Incoming Finance Minister Carlos Urzua, whose team sat down with financial heavyweights such as Bank of America, BlackRock, Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley, told Reuters in April that foreign investors were “not very worried” about the airport.

Now, the scrapping of the hub has raised the prospect of a messy legal dispute with investors that could cost billions of dollars — as well as cloud interest in new projects.

Some members of Lopez Obrador’s incoming government privately express deep misgivings about the decision to cancel the airport, which was based on a referendum organized by his own party in which barely 1 percent of the electorate voted.

They felt the poll, which critics lambasted as opaque and open to abuse, undermined the credibility he had built up over the years he spent campaigning against corruption and vote-rigging.

Lopez Obrador’s taste for rule by referendum, and changes to laws governing everything from banking to mining and pension funds that have been proposed by his National Regeneration Movement and the party’s allies in Congress, have further curdled sentiment.

“I’ve moved from being cautiously optimistic after the election, to being quite pessimistic now,” said Andres Rozental, a former deputy foreign minister of Mexico. “He’s not building on what he got. He’s destroying little by little what he got.”

Facing questions about the airport controversy from a panel of prominent Mexican journalists this month, Lopez Obrador was unrepentant about the referendum, saying that “errors” made were blown out of proportion by adversaries trying to hurt him.

“What I regard as most important in my life is my honesty,” he said. “We are not creating a dictatorship,” he added, repeating what is a frequent aside in his public pronouncements.

Nevertheless, Arturo Herrera, an incoming deputy finance minister, conceded this week that the transition had tested the next government, which must present its first budget by mid-December.

“What we’re all learning is that we need to be extremely careful,” he told Mexican television.
…

It may be the world’s sixth largest, but most other things about India’s economy are up for debate.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is under fire for the release of new historical GDP figures that significantly downgraded growth during the years the opposition Congress party was in power, replacing old government estimates and those prepared by an independent committee.

The figures, released by the government’s Central Statistics Office (CSO), showed growth in the 10 years of Congress rule to 2014 averaged 6.7 percent, below an average of 7.4 percent under the current government. A previous government estimate had growth under Congress at 7.8 percent.

P. Chidambaram, a former Congress finance minister, called the release “a joke”. In response India’s current finance minister, the BJP’s Arun Jaitley, said the CSO was a credible organization.

The fallout comes at a critical time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

India’s economy grew a weaker-than-expected 7.1 percent in the July-September quarter, from a more than two-year high of 8.2 percent in the previous quarter, government data showed on Friday.

Modi faces a general election next year, when the performance of the economy under his pro-business administration compared with the Congress era is likely to dominate campaigning.

The spat has also alarmed India’s top statisticians, who have long faced the difficult task of estimating growth and unemployment in an economy with hundreds of millions of informal workers, and dominated its financial press and political cartoons in recent days.

“The entire episode threatens to bring disrepute to India’s statistical services,” said an editorial in Mint, one of the country’s leading business newspapers, on Friday.

A joke widely circulated on WhatsApp said the government would soon be reinterpreting the last cricket World Cup, in which India crashed out in the semi-finals, to say the country won based on a new methodology.

COMPETING INTERESTS

Unlike many major economies, India lacks an independent statistical body.

An organization called the National Statistics Commission (NSC) was formed in 2005 with that intention, though it is yet to be recognized as the official body for generating statistics.

Last year the NSC set up a committee, chaired by economist Sudipto Mundle, to come up with a new set of historical GDP figures.

Its report, published in July, showed growth averaged 8.1 percent in the decade before the BJP took power.

After the figures were cheered by the Congress, the government issued a clarification saying the report “had not yet been finalised and various alternative methods are being explored”. Shortly after, the report was pulled from the government’s website.

“The whole thing has unfortunately become very political,” said Mundle, on the battle between the two parties. “It is very troubling.”

Attempts to formalize the NSC’s role have been successively stonewalled by both Congress and the BJP, said N R Bhanumurthy, who sat on the committee chaired by Mundle.

“They have not shown much interest in making it independent from our government,” he said.

The debate over India’s true level of growth is the latest to frustrate economists looking to measure the performance of the country of 1.3 billion people.

India has not published its official employment survey since 2015, while a smaller quarterly survey on companies employing more than 10 workers has not been released since March while the government comes up with new methodology.

India’s large informal sector made calculating employment “almost impossible”, Bhanumurthy said, leading to a vacuum that was filled with competing political interests.
…

Police raided six Deutsche Bank offices in and around Frankfurt on Thursday over money laundering allegations linked to the “Panama Papers”, the public prosecutor’s office in Germany’s financial capital said.

Investigators are looking into the activities of two unnamed Deutsche Bank employees alleged to have helped clients set up offshore firms to launder money, the prosecutor’s office said.

Around 170 police officers, prosecutors and tax inspectors searched the offices where written and electronic business documents were seized.

“Of course, we will cooperate closely with the public prosecutor’s office in Frankfurt, as it is in our interest as well to clarify the facts,” Deutsche Bank said, adding it believed it had already provided all the relevant information related to the “Panama Papers”.

The news comes as Deutsche Bank tries to repair its tattered reputation after three years of losses and a drumbeat of financial and regulatory scandals.

Christian Sewing was appointed as chief executive in April to help the bank to rebuild. He trimmed U.S. operations and reshuffled the management board but revenue has continued to slip.

Deutsche Bank shares were down more than 3 percent by 1220 GMT and have lost almost half their value this year.

Offshore links

The investigation was triggered after investigators reviewed so-called “Offshore-Leaks” and “Panama Papers”, the prosecutor said.

The “Panama Papers”, which consist of millions of documents from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca, were leaked to the media in April 2016.

Several banks, including Scandinavian lenders Nordea and Handelsbanken have already been fined by regulators for violating money laundering rules as a result of the papers.

The prosecutors said they are looking at whether Deutsche Bank may have assisted clients to set up offshore companies in tax havens so that funds transferred to accounts at Deutsche Bank could skirt anti-money laundering safeguards.

In 2016 alone, over 900 customers were served by a Deutsche Bank subsidiary registered on the British Virgin Islands, generating a volume of 311 million euros, the prosecutors said.

They also said Deutsche Bank employees are alleged to have breached their duties by neglecting to report money laundering suspicions about clients and offshore companies involved in tax evasion schemes.

The investigation is separate from another money laundering scandal surrounding Danish lender Danske Bank, where Deutsche Bank is involved.

Danske is under investigation for suspicious payments totaling 200 billion euros from 2007 onwards and a source with direct knowledge of the case has told Reuters Deutsche Bank helped to process the bulk of the payments.

A Deutsche Bank executive director has said the lender played only a secondary role as a so-called correspondent bank to Danske Bank, limiting what it needed to know about the people behind the transactions.

Under scrutiny

Weaknesses in Deutsche Bank’s controls that aim to prevent money laundering have caught the attention of regulators on both sides of the Atlantic. The bank has publicly said that it agreed it needed to improve its processes to properly identify clients.

In September, Germany’s financial watchdog – BaFin – ordered Deutsche Bank to do more to prevent money laundering and “terrorist financing,” and appointed KPMG as third party to assess progress.

In August, Reuters reported that Deutsche Bank had uncovered further shortcomings in its ability to fully identify clients and the source of their wealth.

Last year, Deutsche Bank was fined nearly $700 million for allowing money laundering through artificial trades between Moscow, London and New York. An investigation by the U.S.

Department of Justice is still ongoing.

Deutsche Bank has been under pressure after annual losses, and it agreed to pay a $7.2 billion settlement with U.S. authorities last year over its sale of toxic mortgage securities in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.

 
…

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that new auto tariffs were “being studied now,” asserting they could prevent job cuts such as the U.S. layoffs and plant closures that General Motors Co. announced this week. 

 

Trump said on Twitter that the 25 percent tariff placed on imported pickup trucks and commercial vans from markets outside North America in the 1960s had long boosted U.S. vehicle production. 

 

“If we did that with cars coming in, many more cars would be built here,” Trump said, “and G.M. would not be closing their plants in Ohio, Michigan & Maryland.” 

 

The United States has a 2.5 percent tariff on imported cars and sport utility vehicles from markets outside North America and South Korea. The new North American trade deal exempts the first 2.6 million SUVs and passenger cars built in Mexico and Canada from new tariffs. 

 

Several automakers said privately on Wednesday that they feared GM’s action could prompt Trump to act faster than expected on new tariffs. 

 

GM did not directly comment on Trump’s tweets but reiterated that it was committed to investing in the United States. On Monday, the company said it would shutter five North American plants, stop building six low-selling passenger cars in North America and cut up to 15,000 jobs. The company has no plans to shift production of those vehicles to other markets. 

 

The administration has for months been considering imposing dramatic new tariffs on imported vehicles. 

 

The U.S. Commerce Department has circulated draft recommendations to the White House on its investigation into whether to impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on imported cars and parts on national security grounds, Reuters reported earlier this month. 

 

“The President has great power on this issue – Because of the G.M. event, it is being studied now!” Trump said. 

 

Shock to industry

The prospect of tariffs of 25 percent on imported autos and parts has sent shock waves through the auto industry, with both U.S. and foreign-brand producers lobbying against it and warning that national security tariffs on EU and Japanese vehicles could dramatically raise the price of many vehicles. 

 

Trump has also harshly criticized GM for building cars in China. The United States slapped an additional 25 percent tariff on Chinese-made vehicles earlier this year, prompting China to retaliate. 

 

China currently imposes a 40 percent tariff on U.S. automobiles, while the United States has a 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese vehicles. 

 

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement on Wednesday that he “will examine all available tools to equalize the tariffs applied to automobiles.” 

 

Additional tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles and parts would have a limited impact, said Kristin Dziczek, an economist at the Center for Automotive Research. She noted only a small number of vehicles were exported from China to the United States annually. 

 

The White House previously pledged not to move forward with imposing national security tariffs on the European Union or Japan while it was making constructive progress in trade talks. 

 

Trump wants the EU and Japan to buy more American-made vehicles. He wants the EU and Japan to make trade concessions, including lowering the EU’s 10 percent tariff on imported vehicles and cutting nontariff barriers. 

 

The White House in recent weeks has reached out to the chief executives of German automakers, including Daimler AG, MW AG and Volkswagen AG about meeting to discuss the status of auto trade.  
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell boosted U.S. stock markets on Wednesday when he said interest rates were “just below” estimates of a level that neither brakes nor boosts a healthy economy. Many took his comments as a signal that the Fed’s three-year tightening cycle is ending. 

The S&P 500 and Dow posted their biggest percentage gains in eight months, while the Nasdaq saw its largest advance in just over a month following Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York. 

Powell said that while “there was a great deal to like” about U.S. prospects, “our gradual pace of raising interest rates has been an exercise in balancing risks.” 

Earlier in the day, in its first-ever financial stability report, the Fed cautioned that trade tensions, Brexit and troubled emerging markets could rock a U.S. financial system where asset prices are “elevated.” 

‘Close to neutral’

“[Powell is] now acknowledging he’s close to neutral, which suggests maybe not quite as many rate hikes in the future as investors believed,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors in Chicago. “It’s certainly a change of language and welcome news to investors.” 

The U.S. Commerce Department affirmed that U.S. GDP grew in the third quarter at a 3.5 percent annual rate, but the goods trade deficit widened, consumer spending was revised lower and sales of new homes tumbled, suggesting clouds are gathering over what is now the second-longest economic expansion on record. 

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 617.7 points, or 2.5 percent, to 25,366.43, the S&P 500 gained 61.61 points, or 2.30 percent, to 2,743.78 and the Nasdaq Composite added 208.89 points, or 2.95 percent, to 7,291.59. 

Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, all but utilities were positive. Technology and consumer discretionary were the biggest percentage gainers, each up more than 3 percent. 

The S&P 500 Automobile & Components index was up 1.4 percent after President Donald Trump said he was studying new auto tariffs in the wake of General Motors Co.’s announcement that it would close plants and cut its workforce. 

Humana cuts forecast

Health insurer Humana Inc. cut its 2019 forecast for Medicare drug plan enrollment but upped its estimated enrollment in the company’s Medicare Advantage plan. Its stock ended the session up 6.2 percent. 

Salesforce.com Inc. beat analysts’ earnings estimates and forecast better-than-expected 2020 revenue, sending its shares up 10.3 percent. Other cloud software makers rose on the news, with the ISE Cloud Index gaining 3.5 percent. 

Microsoft Corp briefly surpassed Apple Inc. in market cap but Apple took back its lead by closing. Nevertheless, Microsoft closed 4.0 percent higher as it benefited from optimism regarding demand for cloud computing services. 

Among losers, Tiffany & Co. shares dropped 11.8 percent after the luxury retailer missed quarterly sales estimates on slowing Chinese demand. 

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.95-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.58-to-1 ratio favored advancers. 

The S&P 500 posted 17 new 52-week highs and six new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 129 new lows. 

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.04 billion shares, compared with the 7.82 billion-share average over the last 20 trading days. 
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U.S. President Donald Trump touted the use of U.S. tariffs on foreign small trucks Wednesday, saying their placement on other foreign vehicles would have prevented the closure of several General Motors plants and the loss of thousands of coveted manufacturing jobs.

Trump noted on Twitter that brisk U.S. small truck sales in the country are due to a 25-percent tariff on small truck imports.

The president reiterated on Twitter that “countries that send us cars have taken advantage of the U.S. for decades.” Trump added he has “great power on this issue,” which he said “is being studied now.”

Trump has threatened to eliminate all federal subsidies to GM in response to the company’s planned closure of five plants and the elimination of 14,000 jobs in North America. Questions remain, though, about whether Trump has the authority to act against the automaker without congressional approval.

Federal tax credits of up to $7,500 are available to those who buy GM electric vehicles. Killing the subsidies may have little financial impact on GM because it is on the cusp of reaching its subsidy limit.

Many of the jobs would be eliminated in Midwestern U.S. states, a region where Trump has long promised a manufacturing rebirth.

GM, which said it has invested more than $22 billion in U.S. operations since it came out of bankruptcy in 2009, has tried to appease the Trump administration while justifying its decisions.

“We appreciate the actions this administration has taken on behalf of industry to improve the overall competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing,” GM said in a statement Tuesday.

Before GM can shutter factories next year in Michigan, Ohio and Ontario, Canada, it must reach agreement with the United Auto Workers union. The union has vowed to fight the closures legally and in collective bargaining.

GM’s restructuring reflects changes in buying trends in North America, prompting vehicle manufacturers to shift away from cars and toward SUVs and trucks.

 

 

 

 

 
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