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Prominent historians and human rights activists were shocked by a Russian Supreme Court ruling Tuesday to close Memorial International, which chronicled historical abuses of the former Soviet Union and identified victims of former Soviet dictator Josef Stalin’s purges. 

The human rights group, which has long drawn the ire of Russian officials, was found guilty of breaking a law requiring nongovernmental organizations and other groups to register as foreign agents if they receive foreign donations. Kremlin critics said the organization was targeted for political reasons. 

Memorial International’s sister organization, the Memorial Human Rights Center, which campaigns on behalf of political prisoners in modern-day Russia, is also under legal threat. Prosecutors in Moscow Wednesday will call for its closure on claims it has been justifying terrorism and condoning extremism in its publications. 

“A power that is afraid of memory, will never be able to achieve democratic maturity,” Auschwitz-Birkenau State Museum director Piotr Cywiński tweeted on Tuesday. Other historians said on social media that the ruling capped a year of crackdowns on Kremlin critics not seen since the Soviet days. 

In a joint statement, the German branch of Amnesty International, the Heinrich Böll Foundation, and the Buchenwald and Mittelbau-Dora Memorials Foundation decried the ruling, saying the Russian government “wants to monopolize individual and collective memory.” 

Uncovering atrocities 

Memorial International has chronicled the horrors of the Communist era since it was co-founded in 1987 by Nobel laureate and Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov, four years before the end of the Soviet Union. Memorial historians located execution sites and mass graves of Stalin’s “Great Terror,” also known as the “Great Purge,” and tried to identify as many victims as possible. 

Several historians associated with Memorial International have been imprisoned in recent years, including Karelia-based gulag chronicler Yury Dmitriyev, who this week was sentenced to 15 years in a penal colony for allegedly abusing his adopted daughter.

Other historians say the charge against Dmitriyev was trumped up and leveled to silence him. Two other Gulag chroniclers also have been jailed on sex-related charges. 

Historical memory 

Kremlin authorities repeatedly have accused Memorial International of distorting history. Before Tuesday’s ruling, state prosecutor Alexei Zhafyarov said, “It is obvious that Memorial creates a false image of the USSR as a terrorist state.” Zhafyarov claimed the extensive lists of victims of Stalinist repression compiled by the organization also included “Nazi offenders with blood of Soviet citizens on their hands.” 

“This is why we, the descendants of (WWII) victors, are forced to watch for attempts to rehabilitate traitors of the motherland and Nazi collaborators,” he added. 

Stalin’s image has slowly been rehabilitated since Vladimir Putin came to power in the late 1990s, a rehabilitation that has included new statues and memorials being built, and officials no longer embarrassed to hang Stalin’s portraits.

Memorial historians say they are on the front line in a battle over history and the chronicling of the communist past.

“The very act of remembrance is frowned on,” St. Petersburg-based historian Anatoly Razumov told VOA in a recent interview. He said officials under Putin see the memorializing as unpatriotic, an act undertaken by fifth columnists to the benefit of Western foes. 

Razumov said researching the Great Terror has always been difficult, even during the thaw years (the period after Stalin’s death in 1953) of Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin, Putin’s predecessor. He said 1997 marked the beginning of the end of the thaw when it comes to the history of the Great Terror. In a presidential decree, Yeltsin declared 1997 as the Year of Reconciliation. 

“After 1997, the topic was meant to go quiet. As far as the authorities were concerned, the topic was finished,” Razumov told VOA. 

Memorial historians say Kremlin-backed academics have put a lot of effort into adding details to the story of the horrors that Russia endured during World War II at the hands of the German Nazis. 

Last year, Russian prosecutors summoned surviving Red Army veterans to recall their battlefield experiences to help identify Nazis and their collaborators who carried out war atrocities in the Soviet Union. 

The probe was linked by some observers to Putin’s renewed interest in historical memory. The Russian leader and former KGB officer has complained loudly that the Soviet Union’s huge wartime role and its losses have been downplayed for propaganda purposes by Western politicians and historians. 

Putin has asserted Western popular culture overlooks Soviet sacrifices and focuses instead on events such as the Normandy landings of 1944. Some Western historians sympathize with Putin’s claim and his insistence the Soviet sacrifice in lives and treasure was much greater than the Western allies. But they question Putin’s rigid selectivity. 

Timothy Snyder, a Yale University historian and author of “The Road to Unfreedom,” has accused Putin of taking “certain points from the past to portray them as moments of righteousness” while everything in between those moments is discarded. 

Last year, Putin labeled those who disagree with the Kremlin’s version of history as Western “collaborators.” And the Investigative Committee of Russia has established a department to investigate “falsifications of history,” which rights campaigners and historians fear will be used to further stifle free inquiry. 

United Nations Special Rapporteur Mary Lawlor warned last month any dissolution of Memorial would be “a new low for human rights defenders in Russia,” whose “criticism of historical and contemporary human rights abuses has for many years made them the target of a government that is ever diminishing the space for public debate.” 
…

Mali’s military government has denied hiring Russian mercenaries from the controversial Wagner Group, which has been sanctioned by the European Union for rights abuses. France and 15 other Western nations last week condemned what they said was Russia’s deployment of Wagner fighters to Mali. Mali’s transitional government says it is only engaged with official Russian military trainers. Analysts weigh in on Russia’s military involvement in Mali as French troops are drawing down.

Mali’s transitional government this month denied what it called “baseless allegations” that it hired the controversial Russian security firm the Wagner Group to help fight Islamist insurgents.  

Western governments and U.N. experts have accused Wagner of rights abuses, including killing civilians, in the Central African Republic and Libya.  

The response came Friday after Western nations made the accusations, which Mali’s military government dismissed with a demand that they provide independent evidence.  

A day earlier, France and 15 other Western nations had condemned what they called the deployment of Wagner mercenaries to Mali.  

The joint statement said they deeply regret the transitional authorities’ choice to use already scarce public funds to pay foreign mercenaries instead of supporting its own armed forces and the Malian people.

The statement also called on the Russian government to behave more responsibly, accusing it of providing material support to the Wagner Group’s deployment, which Moscow denies.  

The Mali government acknowledged what it called “Russian trainers” were in the country.  It said they were present to help strengthen the operational capacities of their defense and security forces.  

Aly Tounkara is director of the Center for Security and Strategic Studies in the Sahel, a Bamako-based think tank.  

He says it’s hard to tell if the Russian security presence is military or mercenary but, regardless, would likely be supporting rather than front-line fighting.    

This could allow the Malian army to have victories over the enemy that will be attributed to them, says Tounkara, which was not the case with the French forces.  He says the second advantage is that victories over extremists could allow Mali’s military to legitimize itself.  We must remember, says Tounkara, that one of the reasons for the forced departure of President Keita, was that the security situation was so bad.

Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was overthrown in an August 2020 coup led by Colonel Assimi Goita after months of anti-government protests, much of it over worsening security.  

Goita launched a second coup in May that removed the interim government leaders, but has promised to hold elections in 2022.  

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been pushing Mali’s military government to hold elections.  

ECOWAS in November expressed concern over a potential Wagner Group deployment to Mali after unconfirmed reports that the military government was in talks with the mercenary group.

Popular protests in Bamako have called for French forces to leave Mali and last year some protesters were seen calling for Russian ones to intervene.

Since French forces first arrived in Mali in 2013, public opinion on their presence has shifted from favorable to widely negative.  

The French military has been gradually drawing down its anti-insurgent Operation Barkhane forces from the Sahel region.

French forces this year withdrew from all but one military base in northern Mali, saying the Malian armed forces were ready to take the lead on their own security.

But analysts say one consequence of the French leaving is that the Malian army is seeking other partners. 

Boubacar Salif Traore is director of Afriglob Conseil, a Bamako-based development and security consulting firm. 

“Official Russian cooperation would be very advantageous for the Malian army in terms of supplying equipment,” he says. “Mali, and many African countries, notably the Central African Republic, have concluded that France does not play fair in terms of delivering arms.  Every time these states ask for weapons, either there’s an embargo or there is a problem in procuring these weapons. Russia can provide these weapons without constraints and it’s precisely that which interests Mali.” 

In September, Mali received four military helicopters and other weapons bought from Russia.  

The Malian transitional government’s statement Friday did not elaborate on what the Russian trainers would be doing in Mali. 

When asked to comment, a government spokesman would not elaborate and referred questions to the ministry of foreign affairs, which does not list any contact numbers on its website. 
…

An investigative journalist for the BBC’s Russian-language service in Moscow said in a video released on Monday that he had felt compelled to leave Russia for self-imposed exile in Britain due to what he called unprecedented surveillance.

Russian authorities designated Andrei Zakharov a “foreign agent” in October, a decision the British broadcaster said at the time it strongly rejected and would try to overturn.

The designation was the latest twist in a crackdown on media outlets that the authorities in Moscow see as hostile and foreign-backed. Separately, BBC journalist Sarah Rainsford left Russia in August after Moscow refused to extend her permission to work in what it said was a tit-for-tat row with Britain over the treatment of foreign media.

The foreign agent designation has Cold War-era connotations and requires those so labelled to prominently indicate in all their content that they are “foreign agents,” something which can hurt advertising revenue.

Zakharov said in the video posted from London on YouTube that he had felt compelled to leave Russia after noticing what he called “unprecedented surveillance” of his activities in Moscow.

He did not say who was watching him and added he wasn’t sure if he was being followed because of his foreign agent designation or because of a recent investigation he had carried out into alleged Russian hackers.

The Russian interior ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the video.

The Kremlin has repeatedly said that journalists and media outlets designated as foreign agents can continue their work in Russia.

The BBC did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the remarks from Zakharov, who has investigated topics ranging from President Vladimir Putin’s personal history to Russian disinformation factories.
…

As Europe rang in the New Year 20 years ago, 12 of its nations said goodbye to their deutschmarks, French francs, liras and pesetas as they welcomed the euro single currency. 

On January 1, 2002, euro notes and coins became a reality for some 300 million people from Athens to Dublin, three years after the currency was formally launched in “virtual” form. 

Here is a recap of the event, drawn from AFP reporting at the time: 

In a far cry from the austere New Year’s celebrations imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic 20 years later, fireworks, music and lights blazed at midnight into the early morning of January 1, 2002, to mark the biggest monetary switch in history. 

AFP reported that many people passed on their traditional New Year’s Eve parties, choosing instead to queue up at cash dispensers in their enthusiasm to get hold of the first pristine euro notes. 

In Berlin, Germans said hello to the euro and goodbye to their beloved mark at a special ceremony at the Brandenburg Gate, as up to 1 million people thronged the streets for the traditional giant New Year’s Eve street party there. 

The euro cash was also a hit in the coffee shops and red-light district of Amsterdam. 

Irish revelers were, however, less in a hurry to welcome the euro, continuing to pay for Guinness, Ireland’s favorite tipple, in the national currency, leaving the headache of the changeover until the next day. 

As many feared, the euro switch provoked sporadic price hikes across Europe. 

From Spanish bus tickets, which jumped by 33%, to a Finnish bazaar, where “everything for 10 markka (1.68 euros)” was now “everything for two euros,” many price tags were a bit heftier since the single currency became legal tender. 

The European Central Bank president at the time, Wim Duisenberg, who warned merchants not to take advantage of the euro launch to increase prices, said he had not seen signs of widespread abuse. 

“When I bought a Big Mac and a strawberry milkshake this week it cost 4.45 euros, which is exactly the same amount as I paid for the same meal last week,” Duisenberg told reporters. 

Europe surprised itself with the almost glitch-free transition to the single currency, AFP reported. 

The Germans — reputedly skeptical about the single currency and nostalgic for their mark — turned out to be among the most enthusiastic. 

An editorial in the popular German tabloid Bild proclaimed: “Our new money is moving full speed ahead. No problems whatsoever in saying adieu to the mark, no tears to be shed.” 

Initial “europhoria” was, however, tempered as a few hiccups appeared, such as cash shortages and long lines in banks, post offices and at toll booths. 

France urged citizens to not rush all at once to the banks with their savings, often hoarded under mattresses and in jam jars, since they had until June 30 to get rid of their francs at commercial banks and until 2012 at the Bank of France. 

And the European Commission reported minor problems in getting small euro bills and coins distributed in most countries. 

Duisenberg said, however, he was sure that January 1, 2002, would be written into history books as the start of a new European era. 

 
…

The United States and Russia will hold talks in January about nuclear arms control and tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border. 

A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council told reporters the two sides would meet January 10, followed by Russia-NATO talks on January 12 and a meeting on January 13 with Russia, the United States and other members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. 

“When we sit down to talk, Russia can put its concerns on the table, and we will put our concerns on the table with Russia’s activities as well,” the spokesperson said.”There will be areas where we can make progress, and areas where we will disagree. That’s what diplomacy is about.” 

Western governments have been alarmed by the buildup of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine, expressing concern about potential plans for a Russian invasion.Russian leader Vladimir Putin has denied any such plans and has demanded guarantees against NATO expansion close to its territory. 

The National Security Council spokesperson said in respect to Ukraine’s own interests, the U.S.-Russia talks will not reach any decisions about Ukraine. 

“President Biden’s approach on Ukraine has been clear and consistent: unite the alliance behind two tracks — deterrence and diplomacy. We are unified as an alliance on the consequences Russia would face if it moves on Ukraine,” the spokesperson said. 

Some information for this report came from Agence France-Presse and Reuters 
…

Holiday travelers continued to experience widespread flight cancellations as the omicron variant causes airline staff to call in sick.

According to FlightAware, which tracks delays and cancellations, there have been 2,395 total flight cancellations around the world Monday with 869 of those impacting flights “within, into, or out of the United States.” 

Some 6,342 flights have been delayed around the world with 1,602 delays impacting U.S flights. 

Over the Christmas weekend, thousands more flights were canceled, leaving travelers stranded. 

“We apologize to our customers for the delay in their holiday travel plans,” Delta said in a statement. “Delta people are working hard to get them to where they need to be as quickly and as safely as possible on the next available flight.” 

The holiday season is the busiest time of year for air travel. The U.S. Transportation Security Administration said 2.19 million passengers were screened on Dec. 23, and the previous day saw more travelers than the same day in 2019. 

When things might return to normal is unclear. 

Delta and JetBlue have reportedly asked the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to reduce quarantine times for their vaccinated employees. Some airlines are also reportedly offering bonuses to work more to cover for sick employees. 

Amid the scramble, some are expressing concern. 

“We’ve got to make sure employees don’t feel pressured to come to work when they’ve been exposed to COVID or they think they may have the symptoms,” Captain Dennis Tajer, a spokesperson for the Allied Pilots Association, told ABC News. 
…

The English Premier League (EPL) is postponing several football (soccer) games as a record number of players have tested positive for COVID-19. 

According to the league, more than 100 players and staff tested positive over the past week, leading to the postponement of 15 games. 

“The League can today confirm that between Monday 20 December and Sunday 26 December, 15,186 COVID-19 tests were administered on players and club staff. Of these, there were 103 new positive cases,” the league said in a statement.” 

One team, Watford, postponed three games due to COVID. For their next match Tuesday, they are reportedly bringing in players under 23. 

Some team managers would like to change the rules to allow for five substitutions per game. Currently three are allowed. 

Approximately 77% of EPL soccer players are fully vaccinated, according to reports. 

U.S. sports leagues like the National Basketball Association, National Football League and National Hockey League have all had to postpone or reschedule games due to COVID outbreaks, despite high vaccination rates. 

Some information in this report comes from Reuters and The Associated Press. 
…

The announcement by Russia’s Defense Ministry Saturday that 10,000 troops deployed along the border with Ukraine are to return to their permanent bases isn’t easing the alarm of Western officials, who see the risks mounting of Russian military action.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last week indicated his country’s willingness to sit down for talks with the United States and NATO amid soaring tensions, prompted by the Kremlin deploying more than 100,000 troops near its borders with Ukraine. 

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a televised interview Monday that Moscow was still waiting for NATO’s response to various conditions for talks to take place over security guarantees being sought from the West. They include Russian defense officials and generals participating in the negotiations. “We have said the conversation will make sense only with the direct participation of the military,” Lavrov said. 

He said talks with U.S. officials would likely occur “right after the New Year’s Eve” but that Moscow is still waiting for an agreement over parameters for the negotiations with NATO. 

The security guarantees the Russian leader is demanding would preclude any further NATO expansion and would roll back any NATO military presence in the Baltic or central European states which joined the Western alliance in waves since 1999. The Kremlin is adamant that former Soviet republics of Ukraine or Georgia should not join the Atlantic alliance. 

While the United States and its NATO allies have said they’re willing to enter talks with Russia, Western diplomats have warned Russian security proposals are not acceptable in their current form. In a conference call last week with reporters, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried said talks would have better prospects if Russia de-escalates its military buildup along the border with Ukraine. 

“Any dialogue with Russia must address NATO’s and others concerns about Russia’s continued threatening behavior and be based on the core principles and foundational documents of European security. We will not compromise the key principles on which European security is built, including that all countries have the right to decide their own foreign and security policy course free from outside interference,” she added. 

U.S. and NATO officials have been adamant that it is unreasonable for Moscow to seek a veto over the foreign policy direction chosen by Kyiv or any other sovereign country.

Western officials say they remain fearful Moscow is still considering launching a full-scale invasion of its neighbor, unless NATO accedes to Kremlin demands that would upend the Western alliance as it has evolved since the end of the Cold War. U.S. and Western officials have expressed rising concerns that Russia is contemplating a repeat of 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea and used armed proxies to seize a large part of the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine. 

The troop withdrawal announced Saturday amounts to just 10% of the 122,000 Russian soldiers Western and Ukraine intelligence agencies calculate have been gathered along the border since October. Russian military officials said they are withdrawing about 10,000 troops from near Ukraine because they have completed their mission in snap drills, simulating a response to a “massive airstrike” on Russia. 

Western defense analysts say the troops are being pulled back from the less militarily important south, while there are no signs of troops and equipment being withdrawn from Ukraine’s northern and northeastern borders, across which Russia would most likely strike. 

Back and forth troop movements and increasingly direct rhetoric from Kremlin officials and President Vladimir Putin himself have been keeping Western powers in a state of nervous tension as they try to gauge the intentions of the Russian leader and maintain unity as they mull to what degree they should spurn or engage with the Kremlin. 

Midweek, President Putin said Russia would take “appropriate retaliatory” military steps in response to what he called the West’s “aggressive stance,” although on Thursday Putin appeared to lower the rhetorical volume by praising the United States for its “positive” reaction to Russia’s security proposals and said talks would take place in January. 

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Sunday maintained the drumbeat of stern Russian warnings, saying Putin will ponder a slew of retaliatory options if the West fails to meet his demands for security guarantees. 

NATO’s expansion to Ukraine or other ex-Soviet nations is “a matter of life or death for us,” Peskov said in an interview on Russian television. He added that a test firing Friday of Russia’s new Zircon hypersonic missiles was meant to make Russia’s security demands “more convincing.” 

Friday’s test firings marked the first time Zircon missiles have been launched in a salvo. 

Peskov said the Kremlin would set no artificial deadline for the talks, but meetings likely to go ahead in January would be enough to see if the U.S. is ready to accept Russian terms or would try to drag out the negotiation indefinitely, which he said would be unacceptable. His remarks about there being no artificial deadline contrasted with comments by Putin last week who said in a press conference that he wanted his security demands met “immediately. Right now.” 

“Not sure this indicates much hope for talks to succeed,” tweeted Russian political analyst Vladimir Frolov. 

Andrew Marshall of the Atlantic Council, a U.S.-based research group, says the geopolitical stakes are rising rapidly. “The outcome of this dispute could decisively rewrite the terms of security on the European continent for an entire generation — just as the decisions of the 1990s did after the end of the Cold War,” he said in an Atlantic Council commentary. 

He added, “It could also produce one of two sharply contrasting narratives for the United States in Europe and globally: Negotiating successfully could underline the power of the United States working with its friends and be a model for confronting authoritarianism at gunpoint; but failure will be seen as another marker of American weakness and the unraveling of the transatlantic partnership.” 

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has been lobbying for Ukrainian officials to be able to participate in any security talks among the U.S., NATO and Russia. “We support the idea of the U.S., the EU, NATO talking to Russia as long as the primary topic is ending the international armed conflict, Russia’s war on Ukraine,” he wrote on Twitter Friday. “Decisions on Ukraine’s security can only be made with Ukraine at the table, and with the EU at the table on matters of wider European security,” he said. 
…

Poland’s president on Monday said he has decided to veto a media bill that would have forced U.S. company Discovery to give up its controlling share in TVN, a Polish TV network. 

President Andrzej Duda noted that the bill was unpopular with many Poles and would have dealt a blow to Poland’s reputation as a place to do business. 

The bill, recently passed by the lower house of parliament, would have prevented any non-European entity from owning more than a 49% stake in television or radio broadcasters in Poland. 

Its practical effect would have targeted only one existing company, Discovery Inc., forcing the U.S. owner of Poland’s largest private television network, TVN, to sell the majority or even all of its Polish holdings. 

Many Poles saw the bill, pushed by the ruling Law and Justice party that Duda is aligned with, as an attempt to silence a broadcaster that broadcasts independent and often critical reporting of the authorities. 

Mass nationwide protests were recently held in support of the station and of freedom of speech more broadly. 

Discovery had threatened to sue Poland in an international arbitration court.

Duda said he agreed in principle that countries should limit foreign ownership in media companies, saying many other democratic countries — including the United States, France and Germany — have such legislation. 

But he also said that in this case, the law would have hurt a business already operating legally in Poland. 

He noted that signing the bill into law would have cost the nation billions of dollars, and said he shared the view of many of his countrypeople that this bill was not necessary right now. 
…

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has sought a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council next month and contacted Moscow to secure its attendance, an alliance spokesman said Sunday.

Stoltenberg has on several occasions in recent months offered to resume dialogue with Moscow through this body, set up in 2002 but currently inactive because of the conflict in Ukraine.

But the Russian authorities have not responded favorably.

“We are in touch with Russia” about the January 12 meeting, said the NATO spokesman, who asked not to be identified.

NATO has consistently denounced Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine and has called on Moscow to respect its neighbor’s territorial sovereignty.

The West has long accused the Kremlin of providing direct military support to pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine, who seized two regions shortly after Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014.

Russia denies the claims and Putin has suggested that the conflict, which has claimed over 13,000 lives, is genocidal.

The Kremlin has grown increasingly insistent that the West and NATO are encroaching dangerously close to Russia’s borders.

Earlier this month, Moscow presented the West with sweeping security demands, saying NATO must not admit new members and seeking to bar the United States from establishing new bases in former Soviet republics.

The January 12 meeting is the first proposed by Stoltenberg since Moscow made its demands.

A two-day meeting of the military chiefs of NATO’s 30 member states is scheduled to start the same day in Brussels.

On Thursday, Stoltenberg reaffirmed his support for Ukraine against the military build-up across the border in Russia and the Kremlin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric.
…

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would ponder various options if the West fails to meet Moscow’s demands for security guarantees, amid heightened tensions involving a massive deployment of Russian troops near Ukraine. 

Moscow earlier this month submitted draft security documents demanding an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and military cooperation with countries such as Ukraine and Georgia, among other things. 

Speaking at his annual news conference last week, Putin urged the West to meet the demands “immediately,” listing off a litany of grievances about Ukraine and NATO. 

He warned that Moscow would have to take adequate measures if the West continues its “aggressive” course “on the threshold of our home.” 

Asked to specify what Moscow’s response could be, he said in comments aired by Russian state TV on December 26 that “it could be diverse,” adding: “It will depend on what proposals our military experts submit to me.” 

He did not elaborate. 

U.S. officials have said publicly that they were willing to hold talks on the Russian demands. Privately, however, officials in Washington and elsewhere have said some of the demands are either unworkable, impossible, or fundamentally contrary to Western values. 

The United States and its allies have agreed, however, to launch security talks with Moscow next month to discuss its concerns. 

On December 25, a NATO official was quoted as saying Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg had decided to convene a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council on January 12 and that the alliance was in contact with Russia on the matter. 

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the proposal was still under consideration, with the format and timing needing clarification. 

It would be the first meeting of the council in 2 1/2 years. 

Kyiv and its Western backers accuse Russia of having massed around 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders in a possible prelude to an invasion. The United States and the European Union have threatened Moscow with harsh consequences in the event of a military escalation. 

Russia has denied intending to launch an invasion. 

Moscow illegally annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in March 2014 and shortly after threw its support behind separatists battling Ukrainian government forces in the country’s east in a conflict that has claimed more than 13,200 lives since April 2014. 

Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on December 25 that more than 10,000 troops had finished monthlong drills near Ukraine, and that the soldiers involved were returning to their permanent bases. 

The ministry said in a statement that the exercises for Southern Military District forces had taken place in a host of southern Russian regions such as Rostov and Krasnodar, and further afield, including in Stavropol, Astrakhan, and the North Caucasus. 

Combat training sessions were also held in Russia’s ally Armenia, occupied Crimea, and the Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it said. 

Information from AP, AFP and Current Time were used in this report.
…

France has recorded more than 100,000 virus infections in a single day for the first time in the pandemic and COVID-19 hospitalizations have doubled over the past month, as the fast-spreading omicron variant complicates the French government’s efforts to stave off a new lockdown. 

More than 1 in 100 people in the Paris region have tested positive in the past week, according to the regional health service. Most new infections are linked to the omicron variant, which government experts predict will be dominant in France in the coming days. Omicron is already dominant in Britain, right across the Channel. 

Meanwhile a surge in delta variant infections in recent months is pushing up hospital admissions in France, and put ICUs under strain again over the Christmas holidays. More than 1,000 people in France with the virus died over the past week, bringing the country’s overall death toll to more than 122,000. 

President Emmanuel Macron’s government is holding emergency meetings Monday to discuss the next steps in tackling the virus. Some scientists and educators have urged delaying the post-holiday return to school, or suggested re-imposing a curfew. 

But France’s education minister says schools should open as usual on Jan. 3, and other government officials are working to avoid measures that would hammer the country’s economic recovery. 

Instead the French government is hoping that stepped-up vaccinations will be enough. The government is pushing a draft law that would require vaccination to enter all restaurants and many public venues, instead of the current health pass system which allows people to produce a negative test or proof of recovery if they’re not vaccinated. 

In neighboring Belgium, the government imposed new measures starting Sunday that ordered cultural venues like movie theaters and concert halls to close. 

Some venues defied the ban, and thousands of performers, event organizers and others demonstrated Sunday in Brussels against the decision, carrying signs reading “The Show Must Go On” or “No Culture No Future.” They accuse the Belgian government of double standards because it allowed Christmas markets, with their boisterous crowds and mulled wine drinking, to stay open, along with restaurants and bars. 

Even the scientific committee advising the Belgian government had not asked for the culture industry closures, leaving virologist Marc Van Ranst to ponder that, in Belgium, “gluhwein beat culture.”

Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, the Dutch government has gone farther than most European countries and shut down all nonessential stores, restaurants and bars and extended the school holidays in a partial new lockdown. 

In Britain, where the omicron variant has been dominant for days, government requirements have been largely voluntary and milder than those on the continent, but the Conservative government said it could impose new restrictions after Christmas. The U.K. hit a new high of 122,186 daily infections on Friday, but did not report figures for Christmas. 

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland imposed new restrictions Sunday on socializing, mainly limiting the size of gatherings, moves that the restaurant, pub and nightclub industries have described as economically devastating.
…

As 2021 nears its end, hopes that the coronavirus pandemic might be ending are rapidly fading – as the new omicron variant sweeps across the world. Henry Ridgwell looks back on a tumultuous year in Europe as populations and policymakers struggled to return to normality. Producer: Barry Unger
…

Britain’s Queen Elizabeth spoke of the loss of her husband, Prince Philip, on Saturday, remembering the “mischievous twinkle” in his eyes in an unusually personal Christmas message to the nation.

The 95-year-old monarch said that while Christmas was a time of happiness for many, it could be hard for those who had lost loved ones, and this year especially she understood why, having lost Philip, 99, in April after 73 years of marriage.

“His sense of service, intellectual curiosity and capacity to squeeze fun out of any situation were all irrepressible,” she said in her traditional pre-recorded festive broadcast, paying tribute to “my beloved Philip.”

“That mischievous enquiring twinkle was as bright at the end as when I first set eyes on him,” she said.

The queen said she knew Philip would want his family to enjoy Christmas, and there would be joy for them despite the absence of his “familiar laugh.”

She delivered her address seated at a desk on which stood a photograph of herself and Philip, standing arm-in-arm and smiling at each other. The photo was taken in 2007, when the couple were marking their Diamond Wedding Anniversary.

For her broadcast, the queen wore a sapphire brooch that she wore on her honeymoon in 1947 and for the Diamond Wedding portrait. Photos of her and Philip at various stages of their lives appeared on the screen while she spoke.

Elizabeth is spending Christmas at Windsor Castle, west of London, for the second year running, a break from royal tradition caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A palace source said this reflected a precautionary approach when the omicron variant is spreading fast.

Police arrested at 19-year-old man on the grounds of the castle about 8:30 a.m. local time. The man, from Southhampton, didn’t enter any buildings and was being held on suspicion of possessing a weapon, Thames Valley Police Superintendent Rebecca Mears said.

Prince Charles, his wife, Camilla, and other royal family members arrived later in the morning for a Christmas church service at St George’s Chapel within the Windsor Castle complex.

There was no suggestion that any of the royal family’s plans had been disrupted by the incident.

Usually, all the Windsors gather for Christmas at another one of the     queen’s homes, the Sandringham estate in eastern England. Their walk to a nearby church for a Christmas service is a staple of the royal calendar.

With Britain’s daily COVID-19 infection numbers hitting records, the queen last week canceled a pre-Christmas lunch with her family, also as a precaution.

In her message, she also spoke of her upcoming Platinum Jubilee year, which starts in February and will mark her 70 years on the throne. She is the longest-reigning monarch in British history, having in 2015 overtaken her great-great-grandmother Queen Victoria.

She said she hoped the jubilee would be a chance for people “to give thanks for the enormous changes of the last 70 years, social, scientific and cultural, and also to look ahead with confidence.”
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Senior German and Russian government officials have agreed to a rare in-person meeting next month in an effort to ease political tensions over Ukraine, a German government source said Saturday.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s foreign policy adviser Jens Ploetner and Russia’s Ukraine negotiator Dmitry Kozak agreed to meet after a lengthy phone conversation Thursday, the source said on condition of anonymity.

The German government has not made any official comment.  A spokesman for Kozak declined to comment.

There has been a flurry of phone calls between western leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent months over Russia’s military build-up on the Ukrainian border and resulting fears of an invasion.

In-person meetings between senior Western and Russian government officials have been few and far between, though U.S. President Joe Biden held talks with President Putin in Geneva last June.

Since taking office this month, Scholz has emphasized the need for dialog with Russia over its military build-up on the Ukrainian border while joining western allies in backing sanctions should Moscow invade.

Berlin doubts more than Washington whether Russia actually wants to attack Ukraine and is keen to de-escalate tensions, two government sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Critics accuse Germany of being beholden to Putin because of its need for Russian gas, attacking construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between the countries, bypassing Ukraine.

Berlin says Nordstream 2 is not political and would be only one of several pipelines transporting Russian gas to Europe.

“The German side’s goal remains to achieve a swift reactivation of the Normandy format,” the German government source said, referring to multilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.

SPD parliamentary leader Rolf Mutzenich told Reuters the party was not “naive” and knew who it was dealing with, adding that it still believes that engagement could help to de-escalate the Ukraine situation.
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Scientists declared the eruption on Spain’s La Palma officially over on Saturday, allowing islanders to breathe a sigh of relief nearly 100 days after the Cumbre Vieja volcano began to spew out lava, rock and ash and upended the lives of thousands.

After bursting into action on Sept. 19, the volcano suddenly went quiet on Monday Dec. 13 but the authorities, wary of raising false hope, held off until Christmas Day to give the all-clear.

“What I want to say today can be said with just four words: The eruption is over,” Canary Islands regional security chief Julio Perez told a news conference on Saturday.

During the eruption, lava had poured down the mountainside, swallowing up houses, churches and many of the banana plantations that account for nearly half the island’s economy.

Although property was destroyed, no one was killed. Maria Jose Blanco, director of the National Geographic Institute on the Canaries, said all indicators suggested the eruption had run out of energy but she did not rule out a future reactivation.

Some 3,000 properties were destroyed by lava that now covers 1,219 hectares – equivalent to roughly 1,500 soccer pitches – according to the final tally by the emergency services.

Of the 7,000 people evacuated, most have returned home but many houses that remain standing are uninhabitable due to ash damage. With many roads blocked, some plantations are now only accessible by sea.

German couple Jacqueline Rehm and Juergen Doelz were among those forced to evacuate, fleeing their rented house in the village of Todoque and moving to their small sail boat for seven weeks.

“We couldn’t save anything, none of the furniture, none of my paintings, it’s all under the lava now,” said Rehm, 49, adding that they would move to nearby Tenerife after Christmas. “I’m not sure it’s really over. I don’t trust this beast at all,” she said.

The volcanic roar that served as a constant reminder of the eruption may have subsided and islanders no longer have to carry umbrellas and goggles to protect against ash, but a mammoth cleanup operation is only just getting underway.

The government has pledged more than $453 million (400 million euros) for reconstruction but some residents and businesses have complained that funds are slow to arrive.

($1 = 0.8836 euros)
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On Christmas Day, in his message to the city and the world, Pope Francis stressed the importance of being open to dialogue to resolve the large number of conflicts, crises and disagreements that exist in today’s world. He mentioned Syria, Iraq and Yemen as examples of countries where longstanding conflicts have caused endless suffering.

As customary on Christmas Day, Pope Francis appeared at the balcony of Saint Peter’s Basilica overlooking the square to deliver his “Urbi et Orbi” message and blessing to the city and to the world, a tradition he had to make a break from last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing those gathered at the Vatican on this rainy, wintry day and the millions watching him live on television, Francis said the need for patient dialogue at this time of pandemic is even more necessary in the world.  

The pope said that “our capacity for social relationships is sorely tried; there is a growing tendency to withdraw, to do it all by ourselves, to stop making an effort to encounter others and do things together.”

He also turned his comments to the international situation, where “we continue to witness a great number of conflicts, crises and disagreements.” These, he added, never seem to end and people hardly notice them.

We have become so used to them, Francis said, that immense tragedies are now being passed over in silence: we risk not hearing the cry of pain and distress of so many of our brothers and sisters.

Francis said the risk is that of avoiding dialogue, and that the complex crisis of the world pandemic will lead to taking of shortcuts rather than the longer paths of dialogue, which, he stressed, are the way to the resolution of conflicts and lasting benefits for all.  

Among the nations that the pope singled out were Syria, where for more than a decade the war has resulted in many victims and an untold number of displaced people, Iraq, still struggling to recover from a lengthy conflict, and Yemen.

Let us listen to the cry of children arising from Yemen, Francis said, where an enormous tragedy, overlooked by everyone, has silently gone on for years, causing deaths every day.  

Francis mentioned other conflict areas in the world, including the Middle East, where the continuing tensions between Israelis and Palestinians drag on without a resolution. He also spoke of the Afghan people, tested by more than 40 years of conflict, and the people of Myanmar, where intolerance and violence have targeted Christian communities.

He did not forget Africa, mentioning Ethiopia, the Sahel region and Sudan.

The pope prayed for the peoples of the countries of North Africa, tormented by divisions, unemployment and economic inequality.

At this time of pandemic, Francis also reminded the world and asked for prayers for the victims of violence against women, for young children and adolescents suffering from bullying and abuse, and for the elderly. He prayed that the current health crisis be overcome and that the necessary health care and vaccines in particular be provided to those who need them most. 
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Worshippers in face masks filed into Saint-Germain-l’Auxerrois Church across from the Louvre Museum on Friday for Christmas Eve Mass and were greeted by the rector of the closed Notre-Dame Cathedral. 

It was the second year that holiday services were held under the shadow of the coronavirus. 

Everyone was masked, and members of the congregation sprayed people’s hands with disinfectant as they entered. Children in the choir sang while masked and spaced out across the podium. They had to produce negative coronavirus tests to participate.

“We have very strict rules in place,” said Monsignor Patrick Chauvet, rector of Notre-Dame, which has been closed since a devastating fire nearly three years ago. “The communion wafer is placed into worshippers’ hands, and there is no kiss of peace. There is no contact whatsoever.” 

Chauvet has been leading the congregation at Saint-Germain-l’Auxerrois while the cathedral is being repaired. 

In the lead-up to Christmas, France has recorded its highest number of daily coronavirus infections so far, and hospitalizations for COVID-19 have been rising. But the government has held off on imposing curfews, closures or other restrictions for the festivities.

‘We have to live’

Maria Valdes, a dual Mexican-French citizen at Mass, said she was resigned to the restrictions of the pandemic. She has gotten used to the ever-changing rules and regulations in her private and public life.

“As far as I’m concerned, we have to live because this is a virus that isn’t just going to go away,” Valdes said. “Respect the rules, but we have to live.” 

Chauvet said before celebrating the Mass that much as the fire ravaged Notre-Dame, the pandemic has devastated communities, whole towns and families. The lockdowns and isolation have left people disoriented, tired and emotionally exhausted, he said.

“I meet with people who wonder if they are going to manage to get out of this situation, people who are sometimes losing hope,” he said.

“Christmas is hope,” Chauvet added. “We have to continue to fight, to reach the point where we can try to see the light at the end of the tunnel.”

In September, the famed medieval cathedral was finally deemed stable and secure enough to start reconstruction from the blaze in April 2019 that tore through its roof and toppled its spire. Work on the spire started a few days ago, and authorities hope to have Notre-Dame open to visitors and religious services in 2024, the year Paris hosts the Olympics.

Carpenters, scaffolding experts, professional climbers, organ mechanics and others are taking part in the effort, which includes special temporary structures to secure the iconic towers, vaults and walls of the huge, roofless structure, and a special “umbrella” to protect it from the weather.

“It’s not simple,” Chauvet said of the work. But, he said, like people in his congregation will recover from the pandemic, the cathedral will recover its past glory. 

“The spire will be the same. The roof will be the same,” he said.
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At least three people died when a migrant boat sank in the Aegean Sea on Friday, just hours after similar sinking claimed 11 lives, Greece’s coast guard said.

The latest tragedy, the third since Wednesday, came amid high smuggler activity not seen in Greek waters in months.

The coast guard said it found three bodies and rescued 57 people from a boat that overturned and sank near the island of Paros.

Hours earlier, 11 bodies were recovered from a boat that ran aground on an islet north of the Greek island of Antikythera on Thursday evening.

Ninety people stranded on the islet were rescued, including 27 children and 11 women, the coast guard said.

On Wednesday, a dinghy carrying migrants capsized off the island of Folegandros, killing at least three people.

Thirteen people were rescued, while dozens remain missing, Greek authorities said.

Survivors gave conflicting accounts: Some said there had been 32 people on board, while others put the number around 50, a coast guard official told AFP.

The U.N. refugee agency, UNHCR, said the Folegandros accident was the worst in the Aegean Sea this year.

“This shipwreck is a painful reminder that people continue to embark on perilous voyages in search of safety,” said Adriano Silvestri, the UNHCR’s assistant representative in Greece.

Earlier Friday, the coast guard intercepted another boat with 92 men and boys on board after it ran aground on the coast of the Peloponnese peninsula.

Three suspected smugglers who fled the boat on foot were later arrested.

The UNHCR estimates that more than 2,500 people have died or gone missing at sea in their attempt to reach Europe from January through November this year.

Nearly 1 million people, mainly Syrian refugees, arrived in the European Union in 2015 after crossing to Greek islands close to Turkey. 
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It may be known as midnight Mass, but for the second year running, Pope Francis chose to celebrate the service marking the birth of Jesus Christ in the early evening.

Although conditions at the Vatican this year differed from last year, when Italy was in near-total lockdown, authorities did step up restrictions this Christmas season as well, as COVID-19 infections, particularly of the omicron variant, continued to rise fast.

Last year, a very limited number attended the pope’s Christmas Eve Mass, while this year St. Peter’s Basilica was filled with faithful, although all were wearing masks, including all the Mass concelebrants. The Vatican on Thursday tightened restrictions to enter all Vatican offices. Employees must now show they are fully vaccinated or show evidence they have recovered from COVID-19.

At the start of his homily, Pope Francis told the faithful of the message the night Jesus was born. To you is born this day a saviour, who is Christ the Lord, the pope said — a poor child, wrapped in swaddling cloth, a baby lying in the dire poverty of a manger, with shepherds standing by. The pope said God is in littleness, adding that the message is that God does not rise up in grandeur but lowers himself into littleness.

Littleness, Francis said, is what God chose to draw near to us, to touch our hearts, to save us and to bring us back to what really matters. God does not seek power and might, the pope added; he asks for tender love and interior littleness. And that grace of littleness, he said, is what we should be asking for at Christmas.

The pope urged the faithful to put aside complaints, gloomy faces and greed that never satisfies. Accepting littleness, the pontiff added, also means honoring the poor. Jesus is born close to the shepherds who were there to work because they were poor.

God came to fill with dignity the austerity of labor, the pope said; he reminds us of granting dignity to men and women through labor. On the day of life, he added, let us repeat: No more deaths at the workplace!

On Christmas Day, Francis is expected to deliver his traditional “Urbi et Orbi” message and blessing to the city and to the world.
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The Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office has asked a court to arrest former President Petro Poroshenko on suspicion of high treason and financing pro-Russian separatists, a lawmaker from Poroshenko’s faction in parliament said Friday.

“On Christmas Eve, the prosecutor general office confirmed the information … that the prosecutor general had approved a motion to arrest Poroshenko with the possibility of bail set at 1 billion hryvnia [$37 million],” Iryna Gerashchenko said on Facebook.

The prosecutor general’s office declined to confirm Gerashchenko’s claim.

On Monday, the state investigative bureau said Poroshenko, who is visiting Poland, was suspected of “facilitating the activities” of terrorist organizations in a preliminary conspiracy with an unnamed group of people, including some top officials in Russia.

The next day, Poroshenko dismissed as unacceptable a decision by authorities to investigate him for high treason. His party said the accusation was fabricated on the instructions of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

“Our political team views the recent actions [of the presidential office] and its fully controlled security forces as political repression against the opposition and its leader, selective justice, intimidation and pressure,” Gerashchenko said.

Ukraine has been at war with Russian-backed separatists in the Donbass region since 2014. Moscow has unnerved the West with a troop buildup near Ukraine in recent months.
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The year 2021 saw a new migrant crisis on Europe’s borders – as thousands of asylum seekers from the Middle East and Africa travelled to Belarus and tried to cross the border into Poland and the European Union. Henry Ridgwell reports.

Camera: Henry Ridgwell
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New satellite images captured by a private U.S. company show that Russia has continued to build up its forces in annexed Crimea and near Ukraine in recent weeks while pressing the United States for talks over security guarantees it is seeking.

Reuters could not independently verify the latest images from U.S.-based Maxar Technologies. The Kremlin reiterated on Friday that it reserves the right to move its own forces on Russian territory as it sees fit and that Western countries were carrying out provocative military maneuvers near its borders.

U.S., European and Ukrainian leaders have accused Russia of building up troops again near Ukraine’s border since October after an earlier brief buildup in April, when Maxar also released images. U.S. President Joe Biden and other leaders say Moscow appears to be weighing an attack on Ukraine as soon as next month, something Moscow has repeatedly denied.

The images released late on Thursday showed a base in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, packed with hundreds of armored vehicles and tanks as of Dec. 13. A Maxar satellite image of the same base in October showed the base was half empty.

Maxar said a new brigade-level unit, comprised of several hundred armored vehicles that include BMP-series infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, self-propelled artillery and air defense equipment, had arrived at the Russian garrison.

“Over the past month, our high-resolution satellite imagery has observed a number of new Russian deployments in Crimea as well as in several training areas in western Russia along the periphery of the Ukraine border,” Maxar said in a statement.

It cited increased activity at three sites in Crimea and at five sites in western Russia.

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia wanted to avoid conflict, but needed an “immediate” response from the United States and its allies to its demands for security guarantees. Moscow has said it expects talks with U.S. officials on the subject to start in January in Geneva.

When asked on Friday about the build-up of Russian troops near Ukraine, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was acting to defend its own security.

“Russia is moving its own troops around on its own territory against the backdrop of highly unfriendly actions by our opponents in NATO, the United States and various European countries who are carrying out highly unambiguous maneuvers near our borders,” said Peskov.

“This forces us to take certain measures to guarantee our own security.”

Biden has threatened strong economic and other measures if Russia invades Ukraine, building on sanctions imposed over Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and backing for an ongoing separatist rebellion by pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. A U.S. official has said new retaliatory measures could include tough export controls.

Russia says it wants NATO to halt its eastwards expansion and is seeking guarantees that the Western military alliance will not deploy certain offensive weapons to Ukraine and other neighboring countries.

Other Maxar images showed a build-up at the Soloti staging ground in Russia close to the Ukrainian border, with photos shot at the start of December showing a larger concentration of military hardware than in September.

Other pictures showed continuing build-ups at Yelnya, a Russian town around 160 miles (260 km) north of the Ukrainian border, and at the Pogonovo training ground near the southern Russian city of Voronezh.
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The White House said Thursday that Washington is keeping a keen eye on Moscow and remains committed to diplomacy during upcoming high-level talks. This comes amid increasingly heated rhetoric from Russia’s leader, who on Thursday accused U.S. and NATO allies of undermining his country as he continues to mass troops near Russia’s border with Ukraine.

“You expanded NATO to the east,” President Vladimir Putin said Thursday, during his customary marathon end-of-year press conference, where he also accused Western intelligence services of trying to break up the Russian federation by using terrorist groups. “Of course, we asked you not to do it, as you promised you wouldn’t. 

“But we were told: ‘Where is this written on paper? It isn’t, so you can buzz off. We don’t give a damn about your concerns.’ This happened year after year, and every time we pushed back and tried to prevent something or express our concern, [we were told], ‘No, buzz off with your concerns, we’ll do as we please.’ ” 

“Facts are a funny thing,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Thursday, responding to reporters’ questions about Putin’s accusations. “And facts make clear that the only aggression we’re seeing at the border of Russia and Ukraine is the military buildup by the Russians and the bellicose rhetoric from the leader of Russia.”

Psaki said the U.S. will hold high-level talks with the Russian government in early January, but she did not give further details on when the talks may happen, where they will take place or who will be involved. Administration officials have declined to respond publicly to Moscow’s demands, which include that NATO deny membership to Ukraine and that the security alliance reduce its deployments in Central and Eastern Europe. 

“However Russia has chosen to handle things, we don’t plan to negotiate in public,” a senior administration official told reporters Thursday. “It does not strike us as constructive or the way that progress has been made in such diplomatic conversations in the past. We are not going to respond to every proposal or comment that is made, including from the Russian president.” 

Earlier this month, U.S. President Joe Biden held a virtual call with Putin. During that call, the two men discussed the estimated 100,000 troops gathered on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited troops in the eastern Donetsk region earlier this month and said his forces are capable of fending off a Russian offensive.

Biden hosted Zelenskiy at the White House in September, and he assured him then that the U.S. was “firmly committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russian aggression.” 

The White House also has made clear there will be “significant consequences” if Russia invades. These include harsh economic sanctions and increased security support for Ukraine.

“All that planning is well underway on our side, and we are ready to act if and when we need to,” the administration official said. 

But does Putin plan to cross that border? Analyst Fred Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute doesn’t think the Russian president does: For one thing, Kagan wrote, it would be “by far the largest, boldest and riskiest military operation Moscow has launched since the 1979 inva­sion of Afghanistan.” 

“It would be a marked departure from the approaches Putin has relied on since 2015, and a major step-change in his willing­ness to use Russian conventional military power overtly,” he wrote, in an assessment published earlier this month. “It would cost Russia enormous sums of money and likely many thousands of casualties and destroyed vehicles and aircraft.” 
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