South Korea should more explicitly support Ukraine’s fight against Russia, the Ukrainian ambassador to Seoul told VOA, renewing a push for South Korean weapons that could play a pivotal role in helping Ukraine regain lost territory. 

In a written exchange with VOA, Ambassador Dmytro Ponomarenko expressed gratitude for the humanitarian aid South Korea has provided but stressed that Ukraine remains in “dire need” of heavy weapons that Seoul could offer.

“Regrettably, South Korea is still reluctant to provide our military with the weapons they need on the frontline,” Ponomarenko said. 

Since Russia’s invasion a year ago, Ukraine has regularly made public pleas for South Korea to provide weapons. But the situation has grown more urgent as Russia pushes its offensive in eastern Ukraine, where both sides are seeing ammunition shortages.

“We need uninterrupted and timely deliveries of heavily armored vehicles, artillery and air defense systems, ammunition and equipment of NATO standards to be able to continue counter-offensive operations,” Ponomarenko said.

South Korea is among the world’s largest weapons exporters and has recently aligned itself closer with the West. But Seoul has not approved the sale or donation of weapons to Ukraine, citing domestic laws that strictly regulate sending arms to war zones. 

Instead, South Korea has sent Ukraine several batches of non-lethal military aid, such as bulletproof vests, helmets and medical supplies. It recently announced plans to send Ukraine $130 million in humanitarian assistance on top of the $100 million it sent last year. 

Ponomarenko urged South Korea to go much further, saying the provision of weapons would be consistent with South Korea’s democratic ideals and status as a “global pivotal state.” 

“Sitting on the fence and pretending to be neutral does not help either the one who chooses such a ‘path’ or the cause of peace as a whole,” Ponomarenko said. 

South Korea urged to ‘step up’ 

Pressure on South Korea to do more has intensified as Western countries struggle to produce enough artillery for Ukraine. South Korea is seen as an ideal arms supplier, given its reputation for quickly delivering weapons that are high quality and relatively inexpensive.

During a January visit to Seoul, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg pressed South Korea to “step up” its military aid to Ukraine, noting several European countries had changed their weapons export policies following Russia’s invasion. 

At a press conference last week marking the one-year anniversary of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy echoed Stoltenberg’s call for South Korea to provide arms. 

The same day, Zelenskyy’s senior aide, Mykhailo Podolyak, told South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo newspaper that negotiations are underway for South Korea to provide Ukraine with weapons, though he did not elaborate. 

The report has not been confirmed by either side. A spokesperson for South Korea’s defense ministry said Monday that Seoul’s policy on providing lethal aid to Ukraine has not changed.

Finding workarounds

South Korea has instead found indirect ways to help Ukraine’s military, including by approving the sale of massive quantities of South Korean-made weapons to countries that are arming Ukraine.

The most notable example came last year, when Poland, a major arms supplier for Ukraine, agreed to purchase $5.8 billion in South Korean weapons, including tanks, howitzers, and ammunition.

In November, the United States announced plans to purchase 100,000 artillery shells from South Korean arms makers. South Korea’s military insisted the deal was reached “under the premise that the United States was the end user,” but several U.S. media reported the shells were to be delivered to Ukraine.

“It’s becoming difficult for South Korea to argue that its weapons aren’t getting to Ukraine, or that they won’t get there,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea specialist at King’s College London. 

In recent months, South Korea has also begun providing Ukraine with direct forms of non-lethal aid that have raised suspicions in Moscow. 

In December, South Korea sent Ukraine 100 civilian pickup trucks made by SsangYong, a South Korean carmaker, as part of a humanitarian donation. 

Following the donation, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a research group affiliated with Moscow’s foreign ministry, suggested Ukraine’s military intended to mount rocket launchers on the vehicles for use as what it called “jihad-mobiles.” 

Ponomarenko denied those allegations, saying the trucks were given to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, a non-military agency that focuses on rescue services. “The trucks will be used for demining works but not for carrying rockets or any other lethal weaponry,” he added.

Asked about the possibility of other indirect forms of military aid, Ponomarenko said Ukraine was open to “different forms of cooperation with Korean partners” but declined to elaborate. 

Moscow’s response

Even with indirect South Korean support for Ukraine, Russia still is not happy. Last March, Moscow placed Seoul on a list of “unfriendly” nations. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned South Korea that providing arms to Ukraine “will destroy our relations.”

Russia has also condemned South Korea’s decision to join Western-led sanctions on Moscow, saying such moves will hurt bilateral ties and may impact Russia’s involvement in peace efforts with North Korea.

Moscow, though, may lack leverage on those fronts, since it is not one of South Korea’s major trading partners and Pyongyang has already repeatedly ruled out talks with Seoul. 

However RIAC, the Kremlin-linked research organization, warned in January that Russia may retaliate by providing arms to North Korea under the guise of humanitarian aid. It specifically mentioned the possibility of Russia exporting large logging trucks, which North Korea could convert into missile-launching vehicles.

Domestic skepticism

But one of the biggest obstacles to South Korea providing weapons to Ukraine is at home. 

Only 15% of South Koreans support sending weapons to Ukraine, according to a poll conducted last June by Gallup Korea. 

Many of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s loudest critics in the National Assembly, the country’s legislature, worry about South Korean involvement in Ukraine. 

When Zelenskyy last April delivered a virtual speech to the National Assembly to ask for more South Korean help, only around 60 out of 300 lawmakers attended, with some leaving the room during the event. 

A Seoul-based diplomat from a NATO country last month told VOA he did not expect a major shift from South Korea anytime soon.

“I hope I’m wrong,” said the diplomat, who asked his name not be used as he was not authorized to speak to the media.
…

Russia said Wednesday it would only agree to extend the Black Sea grain deal, which allows grain to be safely exported from Ukrainian ports, if the interests of its own agricultural producers are considered.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last year, expires on March 18 and cannot be extended unless all parties agree. Russia has already signaled it is unhappy with aspects of the deal.

Russia’s agricultural exports have not been explicitly targeted by Western sanctions, but Moscow says restrictions on its payments, logistics and insurance industries are a “barrier” to it being able to export its own grains and fertilizers.

Moscow’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had discussed the prospects for renewing the deal at a meeting with his Turkish counterpart on the sidelines of the G-20 in New Delhi.

“[The] Russian side stressed that continuing the package agreement on grain is possible only if the interests of Russian agricultural and fertilizer producers in terms of unhindered access to world markets are taken into account,” the ministry said in a statement.
…

French President Emmanuel Macron begins a four-nation tour of Africa today amid rising anti-French sentiment that saw French troops recently leave Mali and Burkina Faso. Macron will visit Gabon, Angola, the Republic of Congo, and the Democratic Republic of Congo amid a growing regional opposition to French involvement and support for closer ties with Russia.

Days before his departure, Macron announced France would be taking on a more deferential relationship with Africa that would require France to assume a “profound humility” in its dealings with the continent. As part of the new strategy, French military bases in Africa will transform into military academies while others will eventually be co-run with African partners.

Two of the countries Macron plans to visit — Gabon and the Republic of Congo — are former French colonies.

“For a long time France has been the object of criticism and rejection because its position has always been one of dominance,” said Mahamoudou Savadogo, a security expert with Granada Consulting in Burkina Faso. “But there is a new opportunity to be had. There are youth who have never known colonization and there’s a new paradigm that France must consider in order to improve their relationship with other states.”

France’s military withdrawal from Africa will allow its former colonies to finally assume full statehood, he added.

But as France has distanced itself from the continent, other parties have moved in. Private Russian military group Wagner has established a presence in Mali and the Central African Republic, where it has been accused of atrocities such as torture, rape and executions.

Aguibou Bouare is president of the National Human Rights Commission of Mali. He acknowledged the accusations against the Wagner Group but said it was up to the state to carry out an independent investigation to evaluate the allegations.

“For me, a country does not have friends — it has interests,” he said. “And any partner that can help us fight terrorism is encouraged. I’m not concerned about who that partner is.”

Deaths linked to Islamist militants on the continent skyrocketed by nearly 50 percent in the last year to more than 19,000 people, much of it in the western Sahel region, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

“Wagner’s arrival in Francophone Africa is the result of France’s failed Africa policies,” said Ahmat Yacoub Dabio, president of the Center for Development and Prevention of Extremism in Chad. “France has always supported African dictatorships. It has always turned a blind eye to human rights violations. And France hasn’t made the effort to radically change its policies.”

France would do better to support Africa via health, infrastructure and education projects, Dabio added.

In his speech, Macron said he did not accept responsibility for the worsening security crisis in Mali and that he would not let France become a scapegoat.
…

Iran Wednesday ordered two German diplomats to leave the country in response to a similar move by Germany last week.

The German expulsion of two Iranian diplomats came in protest of Iran’s sentencing German national Jamshid Sharmahd to death.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said Wednesday that Germany was interfering in Iran’s “internal and judicial affairs.”

Iran accused Sharmahd of leading the armed wing of a pro-monarchist group, which his family denied.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said after the sentencing last week that Sharmahd was arrested under “highly questionable circumstances” and that he “never had even the semblance of a fair trial.”

Some information for this report came from Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
…

President Tayyip Erdogan indicated on Wednesday that elections will be held on May 14, sticking to his previous plan for the vote with a date just over three months after a devastating earthquake killed more than 45,000 people in Turkey. 

“This nation will do what is necessary on May 14, God willing,” Erdogan said in a speech to lawmakers from his ruling AK Party in parliament. 

There had been conflicting signals over the likely timing of the presidential and parliamentary elections since last month’s earthquake, with some suggesting they could be postponed until later in the year or could be held as scheduled on June 18. 

Before the disaster, Erdogan’s popularity had been eroded by the soaring cost of living and a slump in the lira. He has since faced a wave of criticism over his government’s response to the deadliest quake in the nation’s modern history. 

Erdogan, aiming to extend his rule into a third decade, previously said he was bringing the votes forward to May to avoid holidays in June. Polls suggest they would present his biggest electoral challenge yet. 

Doubts had been expressed about the ability of election authorities to prepare and make logistical arrangements for the voting of those affected in the quake zone, home to some 14 million people. 
…

A head-on collision between a passenger train and a freight train in northern Greece Tuesday left at least 32 people dead and 85 injured. 

The two trains collided near the city of Tempe, about 380 kilometers north of the Greek capital of Athens.  The passenger train was headed north from Athens to the city of Thessaloniki, while the freight train was traveling south from Thessaloniki to the city of Larissa. At least three passenger cars derailed and burst into flames.  

Authorities say about 250 passengers who survived the crash unarmed or with minor injuries were transported by bus to Thessaloniki.  The passenger train was carrying 350 people.  

At least 150 firefighters with 17 vehicles and 40 ambulances have been deployed to the scene of the disaster in a search for more passengers who could still be trapped in the wreckage. At least 25 people were transported to nearby hospitals with serious injuries.   

Fire Service spokesman Vassilis Varthakogiannis told state television that the evacuation efforts are taking place ‘in very difficult conditions given the severity of the collision of the two trains.” 
…

Kosovo and Serbia have agreed to back a proposed European Union plan for normalization of relations, but, in a sign of persisting differences about its implementation, stopped short of signing it.

The plan — revealed for the first time publicly Monday evening in Brussels — includes steps to bring the parties closer and resolve some issues such as mutual recognition of respective documents and national symbols, including passports, diplomas, license plates, and customs stamps. It also stipulates that Serbia “will not object to Kosovo’s membership in any international organization.”

The document, however, does not call for Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo’s statehood.

The talks between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti were held under the auspices of the European Union. The bloc’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, told reporters after the meeting that “progress was made.”

“At the same time, more work is needed to ensure that what was accepted today by the parties will be implemented,” he said.

Whether the agreement of parties to the document is a significant achievement is not immediately clear, but some analysts are taking an optimistic view.

“I think one can confidently say that despite the absence of a signature, the glass is more than half full. I would say it’s three-quarters full,” Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations told VOA. “I do feel that the parties have passed through some kind of important political inflection point. They are heading toward the finish line.”

“The finish line,” according to Kupchan, being Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo.

“I think it’s safe to say that that formal recognition is the endpoint of this process,” Kupchan said, adding that the document “is really spelling out how the first phase is going to be conducted and how it will unfold.”

Former U.S. Ambassador to Kosovo Greg Delawie told VOA the simple fact of an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia is good news.

“Any meeting in which the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia are treated as equals is a positive step.”

‘Devil in the details’

But there are questions about how far the proposal goes.

The thorny issue of the creation of an Association of Majority Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo is not explicitly mentioned in the plan and the approach to it by Kosovo and Serbia could determine the speed of the normalization process.

Such an association, first proposed in 2013, would allow communities in Kosovo where ethnic Serbs are in the majority to collectively manage such affairs as economic development, education, health, urban and rural planning in their areas. Serbia sees it as an important protection for the Kosovo Serbs but the Kosovo government worries that it would unduly infringe on the prerogatives of a multiethnic independent country.

“The devil is in the details, and we don’t know the details,” said Kupchan. “We do know that the Association is part of the deal and it’s a piece of the puzzle that was put into place quite some time ago.”

On Tuesday, U.S. envoy for the Western Balkans Gabriel Escobar said Washington supports the agreements laid out in Brussels.

“But while it was an important step, the hard work agreeing to an implementation annex still remains and we still want to see two parties move forward on that on an expedited basis,” said Escobar, referring to the next step of negotiations.

Borrell on Monday called that step “an integral part” of completing the deal.

There, say some experts, lies the real issue.

“We still have a long way to go before we have an agreement,” said David Kanin, adjunct professor of international relations at Johns Hopkins University and a former CIA senior analyst, adding that Monday’s agreement to the proposed plan “is simply an agreement to try to reach an agreement.”

“That implementation annex—that’s the agreement,” he said.

There were signs that the parties may have chosen to ascribe more weight to those aspects of the deal that are most in line with their positions. For Kosovo’s Prime Minister Kurti, who said he was ready to sign the document, that seems to be the EU plan itself.

But Serbian President Vucic chose to focus on the implementation aspect. He said he insisted, during the meeting, on the creation of the Association of Serb Municipalities, which was called for in previous agreements. According to the European plan, both Parties confirm their obligation to implement all past agreements. 

“I don’t think Kurti was ready to accept that,” said Vucic. “[Whether] that will be possible in the future, [we] will see.”

Kanin of Johns Hopkins says these statements indicate that basic differences remain.

“That’s the kind of thing they’ve been saying before about each other in terms of the Serbs insisting on the Association of Serb Municipalities and Kurti saying, ‘No, that’s not the priority,’” Kanin told VOA. “They have different priorities and different positions. That hasn’t changed.”

The EU and the U.S. have been pressing for the creation of the Association, but so far Kosovo has been reluctant, arguing that the establishment of a mono-ethnic community would violate its constitution, destabilizing the state and threatening its functionality.

“It will need to be implemented in a manner consistent with Kosovo’s constitution and with the understanding that it is intended to benefit Kosovo’s Serbs, not the Serbian government,” former Ambassador Delawie said.

As a result, said Kupchan, there needs to be more clarity about “how to reconcile some level of autonomy for the Serbian community — the Serbian minority in Kosovo — with the powers of Kosovo’s own government.”

U.S. envoy Escobar made it clear that, from the U.S. perspective, the creation of the Association of Serb Municipalities is legally binding, and that implementation should begin immediately.

Borrell says the diplomacy will continue, and he is aiming for another round of talks in March.

Daniel Serwer of Johns Hopkins University told VOA that although Kurti does not like the idea of implementing the Association of Serb Municipalities, he has suggested he would implement it under a different name.

“Provided Serbia recognizes Kosovo and establishes full diplomatic relations, I think he [Kurti] is correct in believing that implementation of the Association before recognition is a threat to Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he said.

Escobar said this particular agreement is about normalization, not recognition. And while the U.S. supports this agreement, it ultimately believes that all the countries of the region should “recognize each other and have … full and positive relations between each other.”

Russia’s shadow

The renewed diplomatic push to broker a deal between the former foes comes against the backdrop of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

“I am very hopeful and our expectations are very high for this agreement,” Escobar said on Tuesday. “I think what’s new is not only the seriousness of both governments, but the seriousness of our European partners to make this happen in the shadow of one of the biggest crises Europe has seen since the Second World War.”

Russia has stood by Serbia’s non-recognition of Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008, and the West wants to steer Serbia — the only country aspiring for EU membership that has not imposed sanctions on Moscow — into its sphere of influence.

Kupchan said “Russia looms large in what is transpiring,” and, with its aggression in Ukraine, has lost a foothold in the Balkans, making siding with Russia or affiliating with Russia less appealing for Serbia.

“[Russia’s invasion of Ukraine] has expedited U.S. and EU engagement in the region to remove whatever footholds Russia has left,” said Kupchan. “The more that can be done to resolve outstanding cleavages in the Balkans, the more difficult it will be for Russia to exercise influence.”

Keida Kostreci and Milan Nesic reported from Washington, Besim Abazi reported from Brussels.
…

With Russia’s war in Ukraine now in its second year, there is renewed attention on the eastern salt-mining city of Bakhmut, the focus of a sustained Russian offensive in recent months. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the situation in Bakhmut is becoming more and more “complicated.” Bakhmut is just one of many areas in Russia’s sights as the war continues.

Along with the billions of dollars in military assistance that Western nations have given, Ukraine seeks fighter jets, but so far, the West has refused that request. The NATO military alliance has also voiced concern that Ukraine is using ammunition faster than it can be replenished.

Russia controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory, far short of the quick, countrywide takeover that had been predicted when Russia invaded its neighbor on February 24, 2022.

VOA Eastern Europe bureau chief Myroslava Gongadze recently conducted a wide-ranging interview with Kyrylo Budanov, chief of the main intelligence directorate at the Ukrainian defense ministry in Kyiv. Budanov spoke of what to expect in the coming months as Russia intensifies its military campaign in Ukraine. The interview has been edited for clarity.

VOA: You are the only person, in fact, as people close to the processes say, who at the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, even before the start of a full-scale invasion, emphasized the need to be ready for a major Russian offensive. Have you been heard then?

Kyrylo Budanov, military intelligence chief, Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: Since today is already the 25th [of February 2023] and Russia has not been able to fulfill any of its strategic tasks, we can see that, at least partly, I was heard. At that time, let’s say different people had different opinions; however, as the period of February 2022 approached … certain steps were taken and it was because of this that Russia was unable to implement its plan on the 24th.”

VOA: You said, “Because of it.” Because of what?

Budanov: As an example, I can give you that already on the 23rd [of February 2022], our aviation was dispersed. So, when the missile attacks began on the 24th [of February 2022], the losses in our combat aviation were almost minimal, almost zero. These are little-known steps, a lot of them were taken at the last moment, probably, but they were taken.

VOA: How else did Ukraine manage to survive, during the first, very difficult days of the full-scale invasion?

Budanov: Thanks to our people, heroism. What else can I add? Everyone saw … Russia is out there crying that this is their Great Patriotic War; in fact, it is not yet for them. But for us, it is actually a Great Patriotic War. Everyone, from teenagers to old men, at that time, everyone stood up for defense.

 

VOA: Ukraine and Russia have very different military power, of course, both in terms of manpower and military equipment. What does Ukraine need most today in order to make a breakthrough in this military process?

Budanov: I don’t think I will say anything new for you; it is the intensification of weapons supply. Intensification. “Armament is coming, but the pace and volume are not sufficient for a breakthrough.”

VOA: Is it about some special, specific equipment, additional equipment, or is it about what is already supplied?

Budanov: Mostly about what I think is already supplied. In addition, we need attack aircraft, which as of now have not yet arrived.

VOA: There are many calls for the provision of F-16s to Ukraine. Is F-16 a panacea? Are there different types of similar weapons that Ukraine needs?

Budanov: In my opinion, we need attack aircraft. F-16 and similar platforms are not attack aircraft. Assault aircraft, in the USA, are first of all, A10 Thunderbolt II aircraft. This is also army aviation, but these are attack helicopters of the AH-64 type and so on. These are aerial platforms designed for ground strikes.

VOA: Why, then, does the president of Ukraine and his team talk specifically about the F-16?

Budanov: As I already said, this is my exclusively subjective vision, let’s say so. Maybe someone sees a different concept.

VOA: There is a lot of talk about a major Russian offensive. There were predictions that there would be massive missile shelling on the 23rd, 24th [of February 2023]. We did not see it.

Budanov: Thank God, it hasn’t happened yet. But this, let’s face it, unfortunately, is quite an everyday matter for Ukraine now. The only irregularity in it is that each time, the time between missile strikes increases, and the number of missiles in the strikes decreases. Here is the only regularity.

VOA: And what is the reason for this trend?

Budanov: Reduction of missile stocks. There is no other reason. They are already, in fact, ranging almost at zero.

VOA: There is a lot of talk about China being able to supply weapons for [Russia].

Budanov: I do not share this opinion. As of now, I do not think that China will agree to the supply of weapons to Russia. I see no indication that such things are even being negotiated.

VOA: American officials are also talking about it…

Budanov: I am the head of intelligence and, excuse me, but I rely, not on the opinion, with all due respect, of individual people, but only on facts. I do not see such facts.

VOA: Where else can Russia get supplies to continue the war in Ukraine today?

Budanov: Well, let’s say, if you are interested in other countries, as I understand from your question, in fact, almost the only country that actually supplies more or less serious weapons is Iran. I won’t tell you anything new either. There was information that something was coming from North Korea, but we have no confirmation of that. And there is not a single case when we would record that here is some kind of weapon that came from North Korea, that it was used here. Maybe we just haven’t seen it yet or it goes to some other, let’s say, needs. Well, let’s say, other countries, Russia is just trying to buy anything, anywhere. Because their problems are significant. Serbia, which everyone in Russia hoped for, refused to supply weapons. There are certain efforts to buy through third countries. Large-scale withdrawal of weapons. Now they are trying with Myanmar, we will see what will come of it in time. But in fact, Russia is limited, let’s say, by Iran in terms of weapons. As of now.

VOA: From what you say, Russia is practically exhausting its military reserves. But it doesn’t look like (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is going to stop in this war.

Budanov: I’m sorry, but what, according to you, should it be so that somehow it looks different?

VOA: I’m not here to express my opinion, I’m asking. How can Russia continue this war under these conditions?

Budanov: Let’s put it this way. Being in these conditions, Russia cannot afford, as of now, to admit that it will lose. This is, let’s say, a direct dependence of the stability of the regime on this factor. However, if you rephrase, reformulate your question: “Is Russia unanimous, let’s say, on the issue of continuing hostilities?” The answer will be no. Not unanimous. In terms of the top state leadership. Many have come to the understanding that, after all, something is wrong. Let’s put it this way.

VOA: So, there is a split in the Russian leadership now?

Budanov: Opinions are divided. This cannot be called a split. Opinions are divided. And there are not so many people who speak out, in the leadership, I emphasize, for the fact that there is a war until the end and so on. For the most part, those people who are in favor of it, let’s say, behind this desire, they have a banal fear of responsibility. Because there are a certain number of people who will not be able to say that somehow a decision was made there without us, it was not us. There are very few of them, by the way.

VOA: And those people who do not agree with this war, do they have an influence on the decision, do they have an influence on Putin?

Budanov: Everyone is waiting for a certain moment when, let’s say, the tower of the Kremlin, which advocates a unanimous war, figuratively speaking, leans against the wall and admits that it is not going well. It’s a dead end.

VOA: And then? What to expect?

Budanov: Then we will see how things will go on. If you want to lead to the idea that, well, then they will get along there. They will not get along. Nothing will happen without our decisive actions.

VOA: I have heard such thoughts among the political elite in the USA that they do not see how this war can end, and in particular, maybe it can be just some kind of long-term, deep, unstable truce. Do you see it?

Budanov: I do not believe in this. No. First of all, Ukraine will not agree to such conditions; this is the first reason why it is unrealistic. And secondly, it simply won’t happen. And Russia is not ready for long-term hostilities. I am telling you this as the head of the military intelligence service. They show in every possible way that they are ready for “a war for decades,” but in reality, their resources are quite limited. Both in time and in volume. And they know it very well.

VOA: So they are also in a hurry?

Budanov: Everyone will be in a hurry right now.

VOA: We have already talked many times about the fact that the next three months will be decisive.

Budanov: Not just decisive. They will be quite active. Well, very active. Which will determine the further course of events. It’s active combat if you’re leading to that. This is what’s going to happen. Efforts will be on both sides.

VOA: Are we talking today about the east, Donetsk, Luhansk region. Or we are talking about the South?

Budanov: Absolutely everywhere.

VOA: Are we talking about the north?

Budanov: North, do you mean Russia’s attempt to attack Kyiv? Let’s put it this way. We do not know of such plans and there are no signs of any real ones. It’s not that we don’t know them, they just don’t exist. Maybe when they get certain defeats, they will look for a quick solution, but it will be a disaster for them. Another one, similar to what happened back then [in February-March 2022].

VOA: From the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, even before the full-scale invasion, very active cooperation with the intelligence services of the USA and Great Britain began.

Budanov: You are wrong; this cooperation has been going on for many years. It just burst into the mass media now, let’s put it this way. This cooperation has a long history.

VOA: How important is it for Ukraine today?

Budanov: With no exaggeration, you understand that we need everyone’s help now. These are common truths. This helps us. Certain technical capabilities of the U.S., which we do not have, they significantly add to our understanding. First of all, it concerns the military component. Such as, movement at a considerable depth and so on.

VOA: Do you have ongoing cooperation with senior intelligence management? If possible, how does this cooperation take place?

Budanov: What intelligence?

VOA: In particular, the USA.

Budanov: We have all communications.

VOA: Now, about Ukrainian defense capability. During this year, in fact, for the first time, Ukraine strengthened militarily very much, and was also able to go further in its technical equipment and developments. What progressive changes have taken place in the army and in intelligence in particular?

Budanov: Let’s put it this way, we have accelerated quite a lot, intensified the pace of reconnaissance of everything related to unmanned aircraft complexes. This area is developing very actively. This is, in principle, such a general global trend, and Ukraine, as, unfortunately, Russia, in this aspect did not become an exception. It should be mentioned, as an example, that the first thing Russia began to buy was drones. Drones were the first thing that they, and the most important thing, that in principle they try to get from all over the world.

VOA: Ukraine uses, and has an IT industry, very actively. Can today’s Ukraine really be of service in the same way, in particular to NATO countries, because there is talk that after the end of the war, Ukraine will be one of the most powerful military machines in Europe. Can you agree with this?

Budanov: Ukraine will never serve anyone. But becoming a reliable partner, well, it has already happened in fact.

VOA: How can Ukraine be useful as a partner today?

Budanov: Ukraine is now the guarantor of security, in fact, for the whole of Europe. And this is true without exaggeration. Let’s put it this way. All of Eastern Europe understands this absolutely clearly. There are different opinions further, but what concerns Eastern Europe, everyone agrees on this. And in fact, why is everyone trying so hard to help Ukrainians in every possible way? Because if it somehow happened that Ukraine would have fallen, they would be next. And I’m sorry, but the capabilities of these countries are in no way comparable to Ukraine. Everything would be much worse there.

VOA: It is clear that the countries of Eastern Europe understand very well that they are next, that is why they are very active, their leaders talk about it and lobby for the interests of Ukraine and their interests, first of all. Why do you think, especially in the countries of Western Europe, there is no such deep understanding of the danger that comes from Russia?

Budanov: I am sorry, but what is the danger for them other than this, purely hypothetical? Tell me. What could even be in theory?

If, this [aggression] went to the east of Europe, then they would understand that there is a problem, because it would come closer to them. Well, that already happened. After the end of the Second World War, the Warsaw bloc and the NATO bloc stood close to each other. Then everyone understood it. Then such a conditional buffer appeared. Everyone started saying that, well, in fact, you can trade and live normally with Russia. It’s some of their business there; it’s something of theirs, and we don’t get into that. Well, it was the same. Very recently.

VOA: So, Ukraine today, in fact, creates new trends in international politics to some extent?

Budanov: Thanks to the idiocy of the Russians, all their biggest geopolitical horror stories have become a reality. And Ukraine will become one of the most powerful states, and, let’s say, they have already encountered Western weapons. And we all disposed of, let’s say, jointly, all the remains of Soviet weapons from around the world. And they threw out the defense industrial complex of the Russian Federation for many years from the world arms trade. And, let’s say, yes, they limited the activity of their defense industrial complex. They disposed of, in fact, the entire able-bodied part of their army. This, again, sets back their military ambitions for many years. Because simply all specialists, the majority no longer exist.

VOA: If you’re talking about Russia, I see here are maps of what Russia could look like.

Budanov: This is not what it might look like. This is their future. Their very real future.

VOA: So, you see the division of Russia after this war?

Budanov: There are already problems in Russia and they will only increase. The sooner they leave Ukraine, the more chances, in theory, they will have to keep their territory within more or less similar borders. It will not be the same as it was, but more or less similar. Perhaps it will become a real federation, because in fact, if you look at their legislation, they are closer to a unitary state, although they are called a federation. It could turn into a confederation. And so on. As it was, there will be nothing to hold on to.

VOA: You recently visited the Vatican. You have been meeting with the pope. What was the purpose of this visit? Why is the pope himself important?

Budanov: Let’s put it this way. Since I hold several positions, and one of them is the head of the center for the exchange of prisoners of war, I have to, let’s say, try all the mechanisms that even hypothetically exist in the world. This was my main, let’s say, goal.

VOA: That the pope would help in the exchange process.

Budanov: Let’s say, try to connect the Holy See to this process as well.

VOA: And?

Budanov: Let’s put it this way, altogether the mechanisms gave the result we have.

VOA: How does this exchange process take place today, and how possible and effective is dialogue with Russia in this particular context, the return of prisoners of war?

Budanov: The situation is unique in all aspects. Because, maybe it was somewhere, but we have consulted with many foreign partners, how they do it. None of them conducted exchanges during hostilities. In principle, so far only we have succeeded in this. To say that everything is great is absolutely not the case, that would be a lie on my part. Because there are people and many of them in captivity. You can’t say that things are going great. You can’t say that it’s terrible either, well, I’m sorry, with all due respect and understanding of the delicacy of the issue. Because, again, these exchanges are going on and about 2,000 people have already been returned. This is quite a significant amount. Therefore, everything is in working order. Unfortunately, the Russian side often puts sticks in the wheels. But still, we find effective mechanisms that force them to take such steps [war prisoners exchange].

Budanov: We have returned about 2,000. You can understand, these will be significant numbers [the total number of those in captivity].

VOA: You say you are finding mechanisms that work. May I ask, perhaps which ones?

Budanov: We are a special service. I’m sorry, our forms and methods of work are… read the books, they haven’t changed in years.

VOA: Is it possible to publish the numbers of Russian prisoners of war in Ukraine?

Budanov: I tell you again, you should understand. Almost 2,000 were exchanged.

VOA: But are these numbers similar in the total amount? How many prisoners of war are there now on both sides?

Budanov: Unfortunately, they have more prisoners of war than we do. This is very easy to explain. First of all, they captured 90% of all prisoners of war in the first days. The first days, the first month… We do not take civilians as prisoners. There are a lot of women, unfortunately, and children, there are all kinds of elders, postmen, railway workers, mayors, and janitors. Everyone is there.

VOA: Are there any that Ukraine simply does not know — the number that is not recorded?

Budanov: Most likely, there are some, but believe me, 99%, we know who they are.

VOA: Recently, there has been a lot of information about the fact that (Ukrainian) President (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy announced Russia’s desire to overthrow the leadership of Moldova. It was very well publicized, there was a lot of talk about it, and Moldova changed its government almost immediately after that. What risks do you see from that side?

Budanov: When you mentioned the change of government, you have to look at the person who came. (Prime Minister) Dorin Recean. He is quite a professional person and he is a military bloc, a power bloc; it is more correct to say so. Therefore, it is clear that the situation is not the easiest for Moldova. By the way, Transnistria (PMR ) plays not the first role here. This is precisely the issue of the Russian Federation’s attempt to overthrow the constitutional authority. Well, as you can see, they haven’t succeeded yet. A number of measures have been applied, which, for sure, will give results, and all these plans will once again fail. They have already partially experienced this failure in its infancy.

VOA: How important was it for you to convey this information to the Moldovan leadership? How important do you see the risks on that part?

Budanov: I’m telling you, the set of measures that have been taken and are being taken make Russia’s efforts impossible.

VOA: Another question about nuclear weapons. Many people talk about this and say that if Ukraine approaches the borders of Crimea and really wants to take Crimea, then the last step will be, for Putin to use nuclear weapons?

Budanov: And how many times has it happened already? Red line — Russia will use nuclear weapons, Russia is already using it, almost. The first time it happened at the end of spring, and then once every month-and-a-half. The apogee was from late summer to mid-autumn. At that point it was that they will launch a nuclear strike right there tomorrow. Did they? No, they did not. Can they do it? Hypothetically, everything in life is possible. In reality? No, it’s not possible. Because the Russian Federation is a state, let’s say, a soap bubble.

I mean in a sense that they inflate everything. There are not such idiots sitting there as they want to appear to the world. They clearly understand the first thing: nuclear weapons are not [offensive] weapons. It is a means of strategic deterrence. Secondly: the use of a nuclear deterrent by anyone in the world will lead to fatal consequences for whomever does it. No matter who it is.

VOA: Even if we are talking about tactical nuclear weapons?

Budanov: What’s the difference? This is the answer.

VOA: What is the deterrent to them not to do it?

Budanov: Again, if you and I will get into details of this issue, we will spend hours. With all the power of the Soviet Union, and it is incomparable with the Russian Federation today, absolutely incomparable. Several times everything was on the edge. Well, have they used it? No. And can it be used? No it cannot. This is not a weapon, I tell you again, it is officially a means of strategic deterrence.

VOA: Final question. How do you see the end of this war?

Budanov: The most difficult question. The end of the war in the first stage will be the return to the administrative borders of 1991. This is probably the correct answer. This will cause a change in the entire architecture and security, and the economy, and everything else in the entire region. That’s why I say: At the first stage, this is access to the administrative borders.

Next, we need to look at the security zone around Ukraine, at least from the Russian side. To a depth of 100 kilometers or more. And so on.
…

The United States and its allies are moving to treat Iran as a global threat, warning that its growing alliance with Russia — and cooperation in the war on Ukraine — mean Tehran’s destabilizing activities will pose a greater danger than ever before.

“We are now at a point where Iranian threats are no longer specific to the Middle East, but a global challenge,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Dana Stroul told reporters during a media call Tuesday.

Stroul pointed to the enhanced military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow and specifically to Iran’s provision of one-way drones to the Russian military, calling for “a global coalition to push back on the malign cooperation between Iran and Russia.”

“It is reasonable to expect that the tactics, techniques and procedures that the Iranians are learning and perfecting in Ukraine will one day come back to our partners in the Middle East, which is why we are increasing cooperation now, intelligence sharing, understanding these networks and increasing our collective defensive capabilities so that we are prepared to counter these threats in the region,” she said.

Stroul is the latest high ranking U.S. official to sound the alarm about Iran’s alliance with Russia.

This past Sunday, CIA Director William Burns called the growing relationship “disturbing.”

“It’s moving at a pretty fast clip in a very dangerous direction right now,” Burns said during an interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

“We know that the Iranians have already provided hundreds or armed drones to the Russians. … We know that they’ve provided ammunition for artillery and for tanks, as well,” he said, adding there are signs Moscow could give Iran Russian-made fighter jets and even help Tehran with its ballistic missile program.

Iran denies it has provided drones to Russia.

The description of Iran as a “global challenge” appears to be a departure from language used by the U.S. intelligence community just last year.

“Iran will remain a regional menace with broader malign influence activities,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in its annual Worldwide Threats Assessment report.

“The Iranian regime sees itself as locked in an existential struggle with the United States and its regional allies, while it pursues its longstanding ambitions for regional leadership,” the report noted, adding Iran’s leadership would seek to “entrench its influence and project power in neighboring states.”

The State Department’s just-released report, Country Reports on Terrorism 2021, called Iran “the leading state sponsor of terrorism, facilitating a wide range of terrorist and other illicit activities around the world.”

The report further warns that Tehran maintains “a near-global procurement network,” to acquire cutting-edge technology for its military and its various proxies, like Hezbollah.
…

Nikos Christodoulides was sworn in as Cyprus’s president on Tuesday, promising to make finding a solution to the “Cyprus problem” his top priority after winning an election runoff on Feb. 12.

Christodoulides, 49, inherits a deadlock in reunification talks on the ethnically split island, labor disputes over high inflation, and what he called challenges of “exceptionally complex” irregular migration.

Christodoulides took an investiture oath in parliament. Cyprus has an executive system of government, with power invested in the presidency and its council of ministers.

Backed by centrist and right-wing parties, Christodoulides, a foreign minister until early 2022, won 52% of the vote over his main rival, leftist-backed Andreas Mavroyiannis.

“A solution to the Cyprus problem is my top priority,” he said. He met with Ersin Tatar, the Turkish Cypriot leader, last week.

Christodoulides has already sailed into his first controversy by falling short on a pre-election pledge of women making up 50% of his cabinet and of avoiding appointments of individuals who served in past governments.

“He raised the bar, but fell short,” the opposition leftist AKEL said in a statement.

Of 25 appointments announced on Monday, 14 were male and 11 female, though there were fewer females in key posts.

Two of his ministers have served in previous administrations – Interior Minister Constantinos Ioannou, who served as health minister under the government of former President Nicos Anastasiades, and Finance Minister Makis Keravnos, who served in the same post 20 years ago.
…

The death toll from the wooden boat carrying hundreds of migrants that shipwrecked Sunday off the Italian coast has risen to at least 64.

At least one body was pulled out of the sea Monday, according to news outlets.

Survivors estimate that between 150 to 200 people were onboard the vessel that began its journey a few days ago from Turkey. Eighty people survived the tragedy, while officials fear the death toll may reach more than 100. Many of the migrants were from Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Reuters news agency reports that three men, a Turkish national and two Pakistani nationals, have been arrested by Italian authorities on suspected trafficking charges.

Huge piles of debris from the vessel began washing up on the beach Monday near the town of Steccato di Cutro, including wood, gas tanks, food containers and children’s toys.

More than 105,000 migrants arrived in Italy by sea during 2022, with most coming from Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

Italy has asked other European Union countries to step up and take in some of the migrants, many of whom are not looking to stay in Italy, but instead are focused on traveling elsewhere in Europe to find work and/or reunite with family members.

The government of right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has approved legislation that has placed strict restrictions on humanitarian groups’ ability to deploy boats to assist with rescues.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters.
…

Working from bomb shelters has become the norm for Ukrainians like Roman Osadchuk.

“At the beginning, there were a lot of air raids. Nowadays, there are maybe two a week,” said Osadchuk. “I mean, I was in the shelter today,” he said offhandedly when he spoke with VOA from Kyiv.

Most times Osadchuk still has a “solid internet connection” and sometimes he has Wi-Fi in the shelter so he can still work, “just underground.”

That work is part of the digital front of the war in Ukraine. Based in Ukraine’s capital, Osadchuk monitors Russian disinformation for the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab.

His work is part of a broader international effort from open-source researchers, analysts and journalists to study Russian disinformation, debunk false claims, and document violations.

Russia has deployed propaganda about Ukraine for years. And with the full invasion in February 2022, President Vladimir Putin falsely claimed the war was necessary to “de-Nazify” Ukraine and prevent genocide.

Some of those false narratives and tactics have changed in the past 12 months, but the omnipresence of Russian propaganda has remained constant, analysts said.

“This is the most digital conflict to ever occur,” and when it comes to the digital front, Russia has been on the back foot, said Nina Jankowicz, vice president in the U.S. for London’s independent nonprofit, the Center for Information Resilience.

“I think they expected, just like in the kinetic side of the war, to be really unmatched in the digital side of the war, and that absolutely has not been the case,” Jankowicz told VOA.

Open-source researchers have been working to “throw cold water on the lies coming out of Russia,” Jankowicz said. “And that’s what we’ve done.”

The Center for Information Resilience launched the Eyes on Russia Project in early 2022, as Russian troops amassed along the Ukraine border.

When troops crossed into Ukraine, the project worked to verify and geolocate incidents and attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Like detectives, researchers use everything from satellite imagery and shadows to street signs and license plates to help verify events, she said.

Those skills have helped the team to expose lies and debunk “everything from ‘Ukraine is full of neo-Nazis,’ to ‘Ukraine is attacking its own citizens,’” Jankowicz said.

The propaganda is mostly shared on social media, messaging platforms like Telegram, news sites and TV.

Initially the focus of propaganda was to justify the invasion, according to Ruslan Deynychenko, of the Ukrainian fact checking site StopFake.org and a journalist who previously contributed to VOA’s Ukrainian Service.

They created stories about de-Nazification and liberation, nuclear programs and secret laboratories where Ukrainians and Americans supposedly developed “combat mosquitoes” and other bioweapons, said Deynychenko. But about six months after the invasion, Deynychenko noticed that the rhetoric on Russian networks changed.

“They openly admit that they are fighting Ukraine and Ukrainians, and it’s not that they’re liberating Ukrainians from a neo-Nazi regime,” Deynychenko told VOA from Kyiv. “They basically [try to] justify Russian efforts to kill Ukrainians, to bomb Ukrainian cities.”

Russia’s Washington embassy did not reply to VOA’s email requesting comment.

The intensity of the work is a challenge, the researchers said.

“It became more difficult to figure out which case is more relevant,” said Nika Aleksejeva, who researches Russian disinformation about Ukraine at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab.

What would have been noteworthy before the war isn’t as important today, she said. “The baseline has moved.”

Her colleague Osadchuk agreed. “It’s kind of toxic when you eat a lot of it,” Osadchuk said about the volume of disinformation he has analyzed over the past year.

For Toma Istomina, deputy chief editor at the English-language online newspaper, The Kyiv Independent, reporting accurately on the war is one of the best ways to combat disinformation.

“Information is probably as big of a tool in this war as the traditional weapons used on the ground,” Istomina told VOA from Vinnytsia, a city southwest of Kyiv.

“Information has really been weaponized by Russia for a while against Ukraine,” she added, but “Ukraine did a very good job during this war debunking Russia’s bullshit.”

The Kyiv Independent makes a point to not report on every lie that Russia tells, Istomina said, in part because there are just so many. But another reason is that reporting too much on Russian propaganda could risk legitimizing it.

Putin likely considers the Russian audience — inside the country and the diaspora — to be the most important target for disinformation, but Ukrainians are also in his sights, according to Osadchuk. The Global South has also become an increasingly important target, he said.

It’s always challenging to measure how effective disinformation is at influencing public opinion, Aleksejeva said, but propaganda probably helps the Russian domestic audience “cope with such an uncomfortable reality, basically escape it somehow.”

As for the West, she said, “it was much harder to win this battle from the very beginning.”

The fight against propaganda has extra relevance for Ukrainian researchers.

Exposing disinformation and documenting violations is a way for them to contribute to the war effort.

“Every Ukrainian on February 24 [2022] felt that there is a need to resist in some way, where you have some skills,” Osadchuk said.

For StopFake’s Deynychenko, he sees his work as a way to gather evidence that could be used to prosecute people “who used media as a powerful weapon” in the war. “We believe that those people should be held responsible,” he said.

And at The Kyiv Independent, Istomina said the mentality is that “when we work, we’re not victims — we’re fighters.”
…

Europe’s existing telecom networks aren’t up to the job of handling surging amounts of internet data traffic, a top European Union official said Monday, as he defended a consultation on whether Big Tech companies should help pay for upgrades.

The telecom industry needs to reconsider its business models as it undergoes a “radical shift” fueled by a new wave of innovation such as immersive, data-hungry technologies like the metaverse, Thierry Breton, the European Commission’s official in charge of digital policy, said at a major industry expo in Barcelona called MWC, or Mobile World Congress.

Breton’s remarks came days after he announced a consultation on whether digital giants should help contribute to the billions needed to build the 27-nation bloc’s future communications infrastructure, including next-generation 5G wireless and fiber-optic cable connections, to keep up with surging demand for digital data.

“Yes, of course, we will need to find a financing model for the huge investments needed,” Breton said in a copy of a keynote speech at the MWC conference.

Telecommunications companies complain they have had to foot the substantial costs of building and operating network infrastructure only for big digital streaming platforms like Netflix and Facebook to benefit from the surging consumer demand for online services.

“The consultation has been described by many as the battle over fair share between Big Telco and Big Tech,” Breton said. “A binary choice between those who provide networks today and those who feed them with the traffic. That is not how I see things.”

Big tech companies say consumers could suffer because they’d end up paying twice, with extra fees for their online subscriptions.

Breton denied that the consultation was an attack on Big Tech or that he was siding with telecom companies.

“I’m proposing a new approach,” he later told reporters. Topics up for discussion include how much investment is needed and whether regulations need to be changed, he said.

“We will have zero taboo,” Breton said, referring to the conference’s approach that no topic is off limits. “Do we need to adapt it? Do we need to discuss who should pay for what? This is exactly what is the consultation today.”
…

Russia’s war of aggression took center stage at the opening of the U.N. Human Rights Council’s five-and-a-half-week session in Geneva.

As he kicked off this historically long and politically charged conference, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned what he called the carnage unleashed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which he said, “has triggered the most massive violations of human rights we are living today.”

“It has unleashed widespread death, destruction, and displacements,” he told those gathered in Geneva. “Attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure have caused many casualties and terrible sufferings.”

Guterres presented a gloomy assessment of the state of human rights, noting that the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which sets out the rights to life, liberty, security and many other rights and freedoms, was “under assault from all sides.”

He warned the erosion of human rights around the world has stalled and, in some cases, reversed progress in human development. He added that extreme poverty and hunger are rising around the world for the first time in decades.

“A record one-hundred million people have been forced to flee by violence, conflict and human rights violations,” said Guterres. “Just yesterday, yet another horrific shipwreck in the Mediterranean claimed the lives of scores of people seeking a better future for themselves and their children.”

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said much of the progress made over decades was being reined back and even reversed.

“The oppression of the past can return,” he said, along with “the old authoritarianism, with its brutal limits on freedoms writ large, and the suffocating straitjacket of patriarchy.”

The high commissioner added: “The old destructive wars of aggression from a bygone era with worldwide consequences, as we have witnessed again in Europe with the senseless Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

Rights challenges in Africa

This week, some 150 heads of state, foreign ministers, and other dignitaries will present their priorities and the challenges they’re facing.

Democratic Republic of the Congo President Felix Tshisekedi headed a list of 46 dignitaries scheduled to speak during Monday’s opening day meeting.

He told the council that the main challenge facing his country was the cycle of violence and looting of natural resources by terrorists and armed groups since 1994, the year of the Rwandan genocide.

He said some 150 groups, including the M-23 rebels, mainly operate in the provinces of Ituri, Maniema, North Kivu, and Tanganyika.

“It is no secret to anyone that they are supported, armed by some states of the region, such as Rwanda and by foreign financial sectors,” he said. “For 30 years, the Democratic Republic of Congo has been the theater of the most abominable human atrocities.”

Rwanda has denied accusations that it has supported the M23 group in eastern DRC. However, United Nations observers and human rights groups have said there is evidence of Rwandan backing for the M23.

Tshisekedi said he is in consultation with 53 armed groups within the context of the Nairobi Peace Process. He said the consultations, which aim to re-integrate the militias into national life, do not include the M23 rebels or the group known as CODECO, a cooperative of militants drawn mainly from the Lendu farming community, which has been accused perpetrating violence against civilians.

Over the course of the coming weeks, the 47-member Council will review the human rights situations in Afghanistan, China, Myanmar, Syria, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Nicaragua, Israel and the Palestinian territories, among others.

It also will address thematic issues, such as torture, violence against children, discrimination, and freedom of religion.

Moscow is set to be represented at the meetings for the first time since Russia suspended its council membership last year.

Some information is from Reuters and The Associated Press.
…

A 5.6 magnitude earthquake hit southeastern Turkey on Monday, killing one person, injuring at least 110, and causing a number of already-damaged buildings to collapse.

The new tremor came three weeks after a 7.8 magnitude shook Turkey and Syria and killed more than 50,000 people.

Turkish authorities said that rescue teams were immediately deployed Monday to rescue people from the rubble. A father and daughter who were trapped beneath the ruins of a four-story building they had entered in the town of Yesilyurt to retrieve their belongings after the earlier quake were saved.

Yesilyurt, in Malatya province, was the center of Monday’s quake.

Yunus Sezer, the head of Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), said that search and rescue teams had been deployed at five buildings.

The region has had four earthquakes in the past three weeks, as well as more than 10,000 aftershocks, according to AFAD’s general director of earthquake and risk reduction, Orhan Tatar.

The earthquakes are expected to have an impact on Turkey’s upcoming elections. Current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is running for another term and faces what is expected to be a tough election in June.

Critics accuse the government of being too slow to respond to the initial quake emergency and opposition parties have said Erdogan’s government is responsible for the extent of the disaster, due to its failure to enforce building regulations.

At a news conference Monday, Erdogan acknowledged his government’s response was deemed by many to be insufficient.

“In the first days, we were not able to conduct work as efficiently as we wanted to in [the hard-hit town of] Adiyaman, for reasons such as the destructive impact of the tremors, adverse weather and challenges due to the damaged infrastructure,” Erdogan said.

The president said construction to rebuild damaged 309,000 homes would start soon. He said that in March and April, construction will also start on 234,000 new homes, while infrastructure, medical centers, and parks will also be built.

During the huge Feb. 6 earthquake, 173,000 buildings in Turkey collapsed or were severely damaged, making it the worst disaster in the country’s modern history

After this latest tremor, AFAD issued a warning on Twitter telling people not to enter or stand near damaged buildings in the earthquake zone.

Some information for this report came from Reuters and The Associated Press.

 
…

French President Emmanuel Macron is set to deliver an address Monday revealing France’s new African strategy.   

Later in the week, the French leader travels to Gabon, Angola, the Republic of Congo and Congo. 

Macron’s visit to Africa comes as many nations there have expressed an anti-France sentiment that has included street protests in some West and North African countries.  

France is also finding that its long economic ties with Africa are starting to fray as Russia, China and Turkey make inroads.  

In addition, Mali has replaced the French troops stationed there with Russian military contractors, something France would not like to see replicated.  

The French leader will also attend a forest-themed climate summit in Gabon.   
…

Italian officials say at least 59 migrants died when the wooden boat they were in began splintering apart in heavy seas Sunday off the Italian coast. At least 12 of the dead are children.    

Some bodies washed ashore at a resort in the Calabria region.  

At least 80 people, including those rescued by emergency workers and others who were able to swim ashore after the boat disintegrated, survived the wreck, officials said.  

Photos show big chunks of the vessel on the beach near the town of Steccato di Cutro, and pieces of wood and other debris all along the shore.  

“It’s an enormous tragedy,” Crotone Mayor Vincenzo said.   

One of the men from the ship was taken into custody by Italian authorities on suspected trafficking charges.  

Survivors estimate that between 150 to 200 people were onboard the vessel that began its journey a few days ago from Turkey. Many of the migrants were from Pakistan and Afghanistan. 

“The reports of the drowning of over two dozen Pakistanis in a boat tragedy in Italy are deeply concerning and worrisome,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Twitter. “I have directed the foreign office to ascertain facts as early as possible and take the nation into confidence,” he wrote.  

 

Afghanistan’s de facto Taliban authorities did not immediately offer any comment on reports that Afghan nationals were also among the victims. 

 

Pope Francis said Sunday, “I pray for each of them, for the missing and the other migrants who survived.”   

Francis also said he also was praying for the rescuers “and for those who give welcome” to the migrants.  

Italy has been overwhelmed with migrants who are coming from Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and other places.  

Italy has asked other European Union countries to step up and take in some of the migrants, many of whom are not looking to stay in Italy, but instead are focused on traveling elsewhere in Europe to find work and/or reunite with family members. 

Ayaz Gul contributed to this report. 
…

Yulian Dlaboha is U.S. a high school student whose mother is an immigrant from Ukraine and whose father is of Ukrainian heritage. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Yulian wanted to help, so he started collecting warm socks for Ukrainian soldiers. Nina Vishneva has the story, narrated by Anna Rice. Camera: Vladimir Badikov.
…

At least for now, the United States is declining to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. But as VOA’s Veronica Balderas Iglesias reports, there are some lawmakers in Congress who plan to push the White House to change its position.
…

At least 30 people have died following the shipwreck of a migrant vessel off the eastern coast of Italy’s Calabria region.

Some of the bodies washed ashore Sunday at a seaside resort in the province of Crotone, while other bodies remained in the water as emergency workers searched for survivors.

The Adnkronos news agency reports the ship was carrying 100 people from Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan and 50 people have been rescued. 
…

An elite Russian infantry force has suffered significant losses in Ukraine, the British Defense Ministry said Sunday.

The ministry said in an intelligence update that imagery from the Vuhledar section of Donetsk oblast shows “concentrated Russian vehicle losses,” with the vehicles probably from Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

The ministry said the Naval Infantry “has been tasked with some of the toughest tactical missions in the war and has suffered extremely high casualties.”

The ministry update, posted on Twitter, said the capability of Naval Infantry brigades has “almost certainly been significantly degraded” because its units have been replenished with “inexperienced mobilized personnel.”

The European Union agreed Saturday to impose new sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The restrictions “are directed at military and political decision-makers, companies supporting or working within the Russian military industry, and commanders in the Wagner Group,” the EU’s presidency said in a statement.

The 10th round of EU sanctions targets about 120 individuals and entities, including those involved in the abduction of Ukrainian children, those who spread disinformation, Iranians involved in sending drones to Russia and members and supporters of the Wagner Group mercenaries, including its activities in Africa.

The sanctions restrict exports of the electronic components used in Russian weapons, including missiles, drones and helicopters, and bans some rare earth minerals, electronic circuits and thermal cameras, the statement said.

The EU sanctions also prohibit transactions with three more Russian banks and lists 96 more entities, including seven from Iran that provide Russia with military drones used in attacks against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy applauded the sanctions and said in his nightly video address that Ukraine is working to extend sanctions to Russia’s nuclear sector “and all those involved in the missile program and the nuclear blackmail of the terrorist state.”

Russian Commissioner for Human Rights Tatyana Moskalkova, who is included in the sanctions, said listing her “violates the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and all other international legal acts concerning human rights.”

Earlier Saturday, in its intelligence update, the British Defense Ministry said Russia has likely depleted its supply of Iranian one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicles.

The ministry said there have not been any reports of the vehicles being used in Ukraine “since around” Feb. 15, while at least 24 were reported downed between late January and early February.

“Scores were destroyed in the first few days of the year,” the ministry said.

Ukrainian and Western officials have said that Western sanctions are hampering Russia’s ability to replenish its stocks of guided weapons that rely on imported microchips.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, responding to that report, said Moscow has increased military production “by tens of times” at some factories and was closely studying weapons fired into Russian-held areas from the Ukrainian side in an effort to gain an advantage.

“We are not just expanding production, but also introducing the latest technologies, perfecting them literally ‘on the march,'” he said in an article published Saturday in National Defense magazine.

“It was funny to hear the Kyiv fantasists reasoning that ‘missiles ran out’ in Russia or ‘production stopped.’”

During the G-20 summit in Bangaluru, India, on Saturday, finance chiefs of the world’s largest economies condemned Moscow for its war on Ukraine, with only China and Russia not signing a joint statement.

With no consensus, India, which holds the G-20 presidency this year, said in what is called a “chair’s summary” that “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed that it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.”

Stating that it is essential to uphold international law, the summary said that “the use of or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue are vital. Today’s era must not be of war.”

The declaration noted that references to the war were “agreed to by all member countries except Russia and China.”

On Friday, a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the White House announced that the Pentagon would commit $2 billion more in military assistance to Ukraine’s defense against Russia. The package includes additional ammunition for HIMARS, or High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, 155 mm artillery rounds, munitions for laser-guided rocket systems, and funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment of equipment. U.S. President Joe Biden reasserted his vow that “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia.”

Zelenskyy has been pressing the U.S. and allies for fighter jets, but White House officials have said they are not the weaponry that Ukrainians need in the near term.

“There is no basis on which there is a rationale, according to our military now, to provide F-16s,” Biden said. “I am ruling it out for now,” he said during an ABC News interview Friday.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to support Ukraine’s infrastructure. Blinken said the State Department in coordination with the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Treasury Department are offering $10 billion in assistance, including budgetary support to Ukraine and additional energy assistance to support Ukrainians suffering from Russia’s attacks.

The Treasury Department said it is sanctioning Russia’s metals and mining sector among others. The action, taken in coordination with the G-7 leading industrial nations, seeks to punish 250 people and firms, puts financial blocks on banks, arms dealers and technology companies tied to weapons production, and goes after alleged sanctions evaders in countries from the United Arab Emirates to Switzerland.

VOA’s Anjana Pasricha contributed to this story from New Delhi.

The Associated Press and Reuters provided some information for this report.
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German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said Saturday it was “regrettable” that China had blocked a Group of 20 communique to condemn Russia’s war on Ukraine.

“But for me it was more important that all the others adhered to a clear position of international law, multilateralism and the end of the war,” he said.

Lindner was speaking to reporters after a meeting of finance leaders from the world’s major economies in Bengaluru.

He said that he was cautiously optimistic that there could be progress this year on debt restructuring for highly indebted countries.

China is one of the largest creditors to poor nations in Africa and Asia.

“There was a cautious signal from China,” Lindner said.
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A man in Spain who was suspected of having the deadly Marburg disease tested negative Saturday and does not have the virus, the health ministry said.

Health authorities in Valencia earlier said they had detected the country’s first suspected case of the infectious disease that has led to the quarantining of more than 200 people in Equatorial Guinea.

The 34-year-old man, who had recently been in Equatorial Guinea, had been given the all-clear but would be tested again in the coming weeks, officials said.

He had been transferred from a private hospital to an isolation unit at the Hospital La Fe in Valencia while tests were being conducted, the Valencian regional health authorities said.

Three health staff who are treating the man were also isolated as a precautionary measure, authorities said.

Marburg virus can have a fatality rate of up to 88%, according to the World Health Organization. There are no vaccines or antiviral treatments approved to treat it.

Equatorial Guinea quarantined more than 200 people and restricted movement February 13 in its Kie-Ntem province, where the hemorrhagic fever was first detected.

The small central African country has so far reported nine deaths as well as 16 suspected cases of the disease, with symptoms including fever, fatigue, blood-stained vomit and diarrhea, according to the WHO.

Cameroonian authorities detected two suspected cases of Marburg disease February 13 in Olamze, a commune on the border with Equatorial Guinea, the public health delegate for the region, Robert Mathurin Bidjang, said February 14.

Cameroon had restricted movement along the border to try to avoid contagion.
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Russian tourists are fleeing to Thailand to escape the war in Ukraine or look to move to the Southeast Asian country.

Thailand has become a haven for Russian visitors who are looking to escape Moscow’s war in Ukraine that has now entered its second year.

Visitors are in Thailand but are they fleeing Russia too.

Since Thailand fully reopened its borders and dropped COVID-19 restrictions in October, Russian arrivals have made up the third-largest group of visitors, only behind Malaysia and India, according to government data.

Now thousands of Russians are looking for a new home, fearing economic woes in Russia and a military draft because of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

Thailand has long been a popular holiday destination for Russian tourists. Thailand and Russia are close trading partners and, in 2019, Russia was Thailand’s seventh-largest market for tourism. Thailand has not followed the lead of Western countries and banned Russian visitors.

Russian tourists have taken advantage of that. For the months of October, November and December, Russian arrivals into Thailand were more than 331,000, according to data released by Thailand’s Ministry of Sport and Tourism.

Thousands of those arrivals also have been investing, buying property, or renting long term in Thailand. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a war mobilization in September, so for many wealthy Russians, the sunny shores of Thailand are an easy swap for the prospect of being drafted into the Ukraine conflict.

All male citizens in Russia ages 18–27 are subject to conscription for one year of active-duty military service in the armed forces.

Russia said it had drafted at least 200,000 citizens into Russia’s armed forces since Putin ordered a partial mobilization in September.

Amin Ettayeb is a sales manager from Moscow for InDreamsPhuket, a real estate agency on the Thai holiday island of Phuket.

“Over 90% [of our clients] are Russians. In November, when it was the peak of people coming in, people were buying everything,” he told VOA.

The family-owned real estate agency has seen a 10% purchase increase since November. Ettayeb said that for the rental market, villas that once went for less than $9,000 per month now go for more than $28,000.

“Rental is totally chaotic right now,” Ettayeb said. “Villas were 300,000 baht per month, some of them now are 1 million baht per month, but people still take it.”

Despite money not being an issue for some, Ettayeb said not all his clients are looking to stay in Thailand long term.

“Not many people want to permanently leave Russia, they just want to make sure they don’t have to go to war,” said Ettayeb. “When things go back to normal, they will most likely go back.” 

Between November 1 and January 21, more than 233,000 Russians arrived in Phuket, according to data from Phuket International Airport. Last year, Russians bought nearly 40% of all condominiums sold to foreigners in Phuket, according to the Thai Real Estate Information Center, Al Jazeera reported.

Emil Saliani, originally from Ukraine, has lived in Thailand for several years. He works as a property sales agent and a development partner of Wyndham Grand and Natai Beach Resort in Phuket.

“We have a new hotel and one beachfront hotel, and we have almost 100% occupancy. Now we have more than 50% who are Russian who are staying for 10-14 days. There are no problems,” Saliani said.

He called the property investment scene a crazy “war market.”

“The project[ed] sales to the Russian market is crazy now. November, December, January was super high season, they sold more than the last 10 years. The ‘war market’ is crazy and the prices are going up by 15 to 20% in sales. The rent, some prices were going up by three or four times.”

‘It’s like a wild market’

This time last year, thousands of Russian tourists were stranded in Thailand following U.S. and other Western countries’ imposition of sanctions on Russia.

The suspension of Visa and MasterCard credit card services and the removal of Russian banks from the SWIFT financial network saw Russians without accessible funds as the Russian ruble crumbled.

Now, Russia still faces heavy sanctions as the war in Ukraine continues.

“The reason for the investment is because they want to move the money [from Russia],” said Saliani. “It’s a bad situation. They worry about the currency.” 

The property market in Phuket has become so saturated that there are now unlicensed agents trying to make money, said Saliani.

“Now, anyone can be a property or rental agent, and [charge] a hundred times more,” he said. “It’s unbelievable, it’s like a wild market no one can control.” 

Local news outlets in Thailand have reported that some Russian visitors also are  illegally working as tour guides and taxi drivers in Phuket.

In a Facebook post this month, Bhummikitti Ruktaengam, former president of the Phuket Tourism Association, called for officials to investigate the prospect of Russians illegally working in Thailand.

Russians flock to Koh Phangan

Since Thailand reopened its borders, the island of Koh Phangan also has become popular among Russian visitors trying to escape the war.

Kimberley Baka, a life coach from South Africa who is based on the island, said it feels like there has been a “takeover” in recent months.

Aside from its famous monthly Full Moon beach parties, Koh Phangan is popular with visitors who enjoy the island’s travel community and budget-friendly prices.

Soaring rental prices are forcing people to leave, Baka said.

“We must have messaged 30 different places, most of them were booked out for a year,” said Baka. “I inquired about four houses, probably the normal value around 12,000 baht [$345] a month each. One Russian woman had subleased all four of them for an entire year and she’s charging 1,300 baht [$37] per day, so [this adds] up to around 40,000 baht [$1,150] per month [per house].”

“Thai people can’t get a good deal,” said Baka. “Many people who have called Koh Phangan home for years are leaving.” 
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