Britain’s Prince Andrew has settled a lawsuit from Virginia Giuffre, the woman who accused him of sexually assaulting her when she was 17.

News of the settlement came in a letter filed with a Manhattan court Tuesday by Giuffre’s lawyer David Boies.

Details of the settlement have not been disclosed, but the letter said Andrew “intends to make a substantial donation to Ms. Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights.”

“Prince Andrew has never intended to malign Ms. Giuffre’s character, and he accepts that she has suffered both as an established victim of abuse and as a result of unfair public attacks,” the letter reads. “It is known that Jeffrey Epstein trafficked countless young girls over many years. Prince Andrew regrets his association with Epstein and commends the bravery of Ms. Giuffre and other survivors in standing up for themselves and others.”

Giuffre, now 38, says she was trafficked by Epstein and his longtime companion Ghislaine Maxwell, who was recently convicted of sex trafficking.

Giuffre says the two forced her to perform sexual acts with Andrew. Andrew has denied the charges and did not admit to any of the accusations against him in Tuesday’s statement.

In 2019, Epstein was found dead in a Manhattan jail while he awaited another trial for sex trafficking. His death was ruled a suicide.

Last month, Andrew’s mother, Queen Elizabeth II, stripped him of all his military and royal duties.
…

Britain announced Tuesday it would co-host an international conference with the United Nations next month to help address the growing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, where aid workers fear acute hunger could kill more people than the preceding 20 years of war.

The conference is being organized to raise $4.4 billion the U.N. is seeking to deliver food, shelter and health services to about 23 million Afghans — more than half of the country’s population – that need aid to survive.

“The scale of need is unparalleled, and consequences of inaction will be devastating,” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said in a statement.

“The conference is a critical moment for the international community to step up support in an effort to stop the growing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan,” Truss stressed.

Tuesday’s announcement comes nearly a week after a high-level British delegation traveled to the Afghan capital, Kabul, for talks with Taliban leaders on how to respond to Afghanistan’s deepening humanitarian crisis.

Aid agencies say humanitarian needs have skyrocketed in the war-torn country since the Taliban took power last year and U.S.-led international forces withdrew from the country.

When the Islamist group took control of Afghanistan on August 15, wide-ranging terrorism-related international sanctions dating back to the Taliban’s first time in power from 1996 to 2001 followed.

The United States and other Western nations have also suspended non-humanitarian funding, amounting to 40% of the country’s gross domestic product. The funding had propped up 75% of public spending, including basic services.

Washington has frozen about $9.5 billion in Afghan foreign assets, mostly held in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to keep the Taliban from accessing it.

The punitive financial measures have pushed the aid-dependent Afghan economy to the brink of collapse and exacerbated the simmering humanitarian crisis, which stems from more than four decades of conflict and natural calamities.

No country has recognized the Taliban government but international engagements with the group have gradually increased to help prevent one of the world’s worst humanitarian emergencies.

The International Rescue Committee said Tuesday that 97% of the Afghan population is expected to be living well below the poverty line by the second half of this year.

“Unaddressed, the current humanitarian crisis could lead to more deaths than 20 years of war,” the IRC warned.

Vicki Aken, IRC Afghanistan director, said the current economic crisis is contributing to a “catastrophic” humanitarian emergency, urging the U.S. and Europe to review their policy to help address the Afghan economic crisis.

Aken blamed the international policies for driving Afghanistan’s slide towards catastrophe, rather than conflict or natural disaster.

“Right now, every day Afghans are being punished by international policies that are leaving millions on the brink of starvation, she said.

“The next six months necessitate an improvement, and the power to ensure it happens lies in the hands of the international community,” she said. The cost of failure is too high,” Aken warned.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has taken steps to allow for humanitarian operations to continue, making changes to U.S. laws and following it up with a resolution at the U.N. Security Council.

“The U.S. strongly encourages both direct provision of humanitarian assistance as well as financial transactions that support those agencies that are providing humanitarian assistance,” a USAID official told VOA. “We have made it legal.”

Some relatives of victims of the September 2001 terror attacks on the United States have sought to gain access to the Afghan frozen funds since the Taliban takeover, to pay out compensation claims.

On Friday, President Joe Biden signed an executive order that will keep half of that money frozen for potential lawsuits and facilitate access to the other $3.5 billion to assist the Afghan people. The action has stoked anger among Afghans and critics warned it would worsen the economic crisis in the country.

Margaret Besheer at the UN contributed to this report.
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Little more than a week ago, the questions from non-Chinese reporters at daily Olympics briefings were about sensitive things involving China — tennis player Peng Shuai, the government’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims in the northwest, the efficiency of the anti-COVID “closed-loop system.”

These days, they’re all about a drug scandal — the one with Russia at the center — and not much else.

The doping saga unfolding around Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva has been a Games-changer at the Beijing Olympics, pushing aside dicey topics that Chinese officials like to avoid answering.

“The big winner in the Valieva scandal is the Chinese government,” Olympic historian David Wallechinsky said in an email. He has been a consistent critic of China’s government and stayed away from these Games, his first Olympic absence since 1988.

“What a relief for them to not have to fend off comments about human rights,” Wallechinsky quipped.

The focus is now on 15-year-old Valieva, which will continue through her long program on Thursday when she is expected to win gold — her second of the Games — but be banned from any medal ceremony after failing a pre-Games doping test.

The IOC has said it “would not be appropriate to hold the medal ceremony” with her case sure to wind up again in the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which ruled on Monday that she could compete. She seems sure to dominate the briefings until the Games end on Sunday, leaving room for little else.

Peng, once the world’s No. 1-ranked tennis doubles player, made sexual assault allegations against a former high-ranking member of China’s ruling Communist Party. The charges three months ago were scrubbed immediately from China’s censored internet, placing the subject out of bounds for Chinese reporters.

Yang Shu’an, the high-profile organizing committee vice president, nearly stumbled in a briefing when — speaking in English — he was asked about Peng and almost mentioned her by name. Of course, saying it would acknowledge that Chinese officials are aware of her case.

China’s internment of at least 1 million Uyghurs has been termed genocide by the United States and others, which China calls the “lie of the century.” This topic is also off limits for Chinese reporters and, by its own choice, the International Olympic Committee.

“The position of the IOC must be, given the political neutrality, that we are not commenting on political issues,” IOC President Thomas Bach said at the briefing Feb. 3, the day before the Games opened. Bach also seldom mentions the Uyghurs by name.

Still, uncomfortable queries about Peng and the Uyghurs kept coming as the Games opened. COVID-19 questions were popular, too, as was criticism about China’s “case-hardened” bubble that separates reporters and athletes from 20 million Beijing residents.

There was a question about Jack Ma, China’s e-commerce billionaire who has largely disappeared from public view. Ma is the founder of the Alibaba Group, which is a major IOC sponsor.

There were persistent questions about athletes’ safety if their comments upset officials of China’s authoritarian government. But those began to fade as few spoke up.

Then came Feb. 9: Day 5 of the Olympics.

“A situation arose today at short notice which requires legal consultation,” IOC spokesman Adams said. “You’ll appreciate because there are legal implications involved that I can’t talk very much about it at this stage.”

Non-Chinese reporters quizzed Adams about the details for days. Questions from Chinese state-controlled media continued to center on soliciting laudatory comments about the venues, offering praise of the efficient organization — and laments about the scarce supply of Bing Dwen Dwen panda mascots.

Much news is local, so Chinese reporters are not alone in this. But not one offered a question about Valieva as non-Chinese continued to press Adams about the unfolding mystery.

“I can’t give you any more details,” Adams said. He repeated this for several days in varied forms. “I’m afraid, as you know, legal issues can sometimes drag on.”

After days of dominating the briefings, news came Monday that Valieva had been cleared to compete despite failing a pre-Games drug test. She skates this week and is the favorite to win the gold on Thursday, where she may lead a 1-2-3 sweep by Russian women.

And everybody’s watching. They’ll be doing so not just for her skating prowess, but for the next chapter in the saga of a girl buffeted by powerful forces and a nation known for doing what it takes to get the outcome it wants.

A nation that, for the moment, isn’t China.

“This is likely a welcome distraction from other potential subversions or critiques of the Games and of China at large,” Maria Repnikova, a China expert at Georgia State University, said in a email to Associated Press.

“Since the Olympics tend to present apt opportunities for the international community to investigate and widely report on the host country, having a scandal that takes the attention away from China in this case plays in favor of Chinese authorities.”
…

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged Russia, Ukraine and the West on Monday to de-escalate tensions, saying “there is no alternative to diplomacy.” 

“The price in human suffering, destruction and damage to European and global security is too high to contemplate,” he said of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the West says could happen as soon as Wednesday. 

“We simply cannot accept even the possibility of such a disastrous confrontation,” he said at United Nations headquarters.  

He pledged to remain engaged with the parties, offering his offices to help find a solution.  

Guterres spoke to reporters after returning from a regular monthly luncheon held with the 15 members of the U.N. Security Council. Russia holds the rotating presidency of the council this month and hosted the luncheon at their U.N. mission.   

Earlier Monday, Guterres had a virtual meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that lasted about 20 minutes. He then spoke separately with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.   

Guterres did not divulge details of his discussions, but he welcomed recent diplomatic contacts, including among heads of state. But he cautioned that incendiary rhetoric is not helpful.  

“Public statements should aim to reduce tensions, not inflame them,” the U.N. chief said.   

He also quoted from the U.N. Charter, emphasizing its call on members to settle their international disputes peacefully and refrain “from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”   

“Abandoning diplomacy for confrontation is not a step over a line, it is a dive over a cliff,” Guterres warned. “In short, my appeal is this: Do not fail the cause of peace.”   
…

Despite their popularity in recent years, Azerbaijan’s Valentine’s Day celebrations are somewhat muted this year. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, as well as poverty, are blamed by some shopkeepers for the gloomy attitude.

“During the pandemic, our business has been weak. Can’t sell much,” street vendor Tamkin Nagiyev told VOA. “People ask the price, then citing the high prices, they do not purchase. They just celebrate it with one flower.”

Ruslan Abdullayev, a flower shop owner, confirmed the pandemic’s impact, saying consumers’ ability to cope has been severely weakened.

“Previously, we sold each flower for 20 Manats ($11.75). Now, they don’t even want to buy it for 10,” said Abdullayev, who noted that while food prices have risen, flower prices have decreased.

Valentine’s Day is not an official holiday in Azerbaijan. It gained popularity in recent years through Western influence and has special appeal to younger generations. The day offers yet another occasion for those seeking to demonstrate their appreciation for love, fueled by commercial interests, social media and possibly a love of chocolate.

Many people in Baku, Azerbaijan’s largely Muslim capital, told VOA they approve of the day.

“We are not opposed to its celebration,” Ilhama Mammadova said. “Every woman would want to love and be loved. To be loved is the right of each woman.”

Another Baku resident, Orkhan Dadashov, agreed.

“Love doesn’t have a day. But speaking materially, at least once a year we can buy a flower and celebrate it. Everyone can do so according to his or her means,” Dadashov said.

But Elkhan Arifli, who celebrates Islamic religious holidays, said he does not consider Valentine’s Day to be a national holiday for Azerbaijanis.

“Actually, this is not our holiday. This is a Christian holiday. Lovers don’t have a day. For those who love, every day is a holiday,” he told VOA.

In recent months, several Azerbaijanis proposed moving Valentine’s Day from February 14 to June 30, the wedding day of Ilham and Fariza Allahverdiyeva, who came to symbolize Azerbaijan’s struggle for independence from the Soviet Union in 1990. Ilham was among dozens killed by gunfire while protesting for independence. Fariza committed suicide soon after. Their love story is still remembered.

Many, like Baku resident Farida Mehdiyeva, still consider Valentine’s Day a positive cultural addition for those who attach significance to romance.

“True, some people do not want us to celebrate this day,” Mehdiyeva said. “But I do. I personally feel the mood of celebration.”

This story originated in VOA’s Azerbaijan Service with contributions from Asgar Asgarov.

 
…

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting the United Arab Emirates, hoping to repair strained ties. Analysts say shared concerns over Iran could provide common ground.

Erdogan said that his two-day visit to the United Arab Emirates, which began Monday, aims to ease years of tension and rivalry with the Persian Gulf state.

He said that with the visit, Turkey aims to develop the momentum it has achieved and to take the necessary steps to bring relations back to the level, he said, they deserve.

Turkey has found itself increasingly isolated across the Middle East, due largely to Ankara’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood Islamist group, something that has caused unease among many Middle Eastern leaders.

Teacher of international relations Soli Ozel at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University says Erdogan’s UAE visit is part of a wider regional reset, with Iran providing crucial common ground.

“Turkey’s charm offensive has targeted several countries, with one of them the United Arab Emirates. Both countries have an interest, along with all the western countries, for Iran not to be so influential as it is today,” he said.

Turkey is increasingly in competition with Iran, from the Caucasus to Syria.

Last week Turkish pro-government media reported several alleged Iranian agents were arrested in Turkey in a joint Turkish-Israeli intelligence service operation to thwart the assassination of a Turkish-Israeli businessman.

The arrests came after Iran recently cut off natural gas supplies to Turkey for more than a week, causing much of the country’s manufacturing sector to shut down for several days.

Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the European Council, says there are suspicions the gas shut-off may have been politically motivated.

“We’ve seen Iran cut off the natural gas for Turkey ostensibly because [it] had something breaking down or it [Iran] needed it for its internal market. But it’s no coincidence that this happened after a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Iran leader [Ebrahim] Raisi. This was clearly a message to Turkey,” she said.

Iran and Russia are working closely together in Syria in backing the Damascus regime, while Turkey backs Syrian rebels. Moscow has also voiced its anger over Ankara selling armed drones to Ukraine.

Analyst Ozel warns that the Turkish-Iranian rivalry is likely to escalate, with Ankara sharing Western and Middle Eastern countries’ fears over Iran’s nuclear energy program.

“If Turkey wants to jump on board in that struggle, then yes, we can expect Turkish-Iranian relations to be a bit testy. On the other hand, Turkey and Iran manage to have competitive and cooperative relations for centuries, so they are pretty well versed on how to do that,” he said.

If there’s a breakdown in talks between Iran and the international community to resolve concerns over Iran’s nuclear energy program, analysts warn that Turkey’s effort to balance competition and rivalry with its Iranian neighbor could face a greater test.
…

Polish ministers say they are drafting plans with the country’s regional governors to cope with the possible arrival of up to a million refugees from neighboring Ukraine in the event Russia decides to invade — an action U.S. and British officials have warned could come as early as this week.

Mariusz Kamiński, the country’s interior minister, sought to reassure Poles the country is ready for what could be the biggest refugee crisis to roil Europe since 2015, when the influx into the European Union of more than a million refugees and migrants from the Middle East and the sub-Sahara roiled the continent’s politics.

“It is obvious that in connection with the situation in Ukraine we have been preparing for different scenarios,” the interior minister said in a posting on Twitter. “One of them includes activities by provincial governors related to the potential influx of refugees from Ukraine, who may be looking for shelter in our country as a result of the potential conflict,” he added.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has warned Poles that a “military conflict is no longer an unlikely scenario” and, echoing the warnings of officials in Washington and London, said Europe is “on the verge of war.” On Sunday, he accused Russia of trying once again to violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity, which he dubbed “an assault on European stability and security” and a “threat to the peace of the entire continent.”

Poland is already home to around one million Ukrainians, who arrived over the years as economic migrants. Poland is not the only central European nation readying for a refugee surge. Latvia has said it is preparing to accept 10,000 Ukrainian refugees, if Russian President Vladimir Putin orders an invasion of Ukraine.

Estonian President Alar Karis is warning that a similar migrant crisis could occur between Estonia and Russia as happened between Poland and Belarus, when migrants were pushed toward the border last year in an apparent attempt to create chaos by Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian leader and Putin ally.

“Tensions are very high,” Karis told the BBC.

Moscow denials

The Kremlin denies Western accusations that it is planning to invade Ukraine, despite deploying along Ukrainian borders the biggest ground force amassed since 1945. Russia’s foreign ministry says Western media are colluding in a smear campaign against Moscow with the goal of “discrediting Russia’s fair demands on security guarantees and justifying the West’s geopolitical aspirations and militarization of the territory of Ukraine.”

Russia has demanded Ukraine never join NATO. And the Kremlin wants any NATO military presence removed from the former Communist countries of central Europe, once members of the Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact and now participants in the Western alliance.

U.S. and British officials remain unconvinced by Russia’s denials.

“There are 130,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine; thousands more in amphibious vehicles on the Black Sea and the Azov Sea,” Britain’s armed forces minister, James Heappey, said Monday. “If all of this were for show, to win leverage in diplomacy, that doesn’t need the logistics, the fuel, the medical supplies, the bridging assets, the unglamorous stuff that makes an invasion force credible but doesn’t attract headlines. All of that is now in place too,” he added.

Flights

According to reports, some wealthy Ukrainians are not waiting to see whether a Russian offensive is launched. Ukrainska Pravda, a Kyiv-based newspaper, reported there has been an increase in private executive jets leaving Ukraine.

The paper said more than 20 private jets flew out of Kyiv on February 13 and over the last two weeks aircraft owned by some of the country’s richest oligarchs and businessmen, including Rinat Akhmetov, Victor Pinchuk, Borys Kolesnikov and Vadym Stolar, left the country, with many carrying family members and business associates and most heading to Vienna.

While the wealthy apparently are departing, the Ukrainian government is scrambling to ensure commercial carriers continue to fly in and out of Ukraine. Last week, Dutch airline KLM announced it was suspending Ukraine operations because of safety concerns. And the flights of Ukrainian budget airline SkyUp have been disrupted because a leasing company is demanding the return of its aircraft.

Other airlines, including German carrier Lufthansa, are weighing their options, partly because their insurers are becoming jittery. Ukraine’s transport ministry said Sunday that Ukrainian skies remain open. “Information about the closure of Ukraine’s airspace is not true. Closure of airspace is a sovereign right of Ukraine; no decision has been made,” it said in a statement.

The ministry announced a $590 million fund to be used for “guaranteeing the safety of flights through Ukraine for insurance companies, reinsurers, leasing companies and airlines.” The move came amid reports that British reinsurance giant Lloyd’s of London is considering suspending war insurance provisions for carriers flying into or over Ukraine.

Urging calm

As the transport ministry made its announcement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy downplayed reports of an imminent invasion, and complained of media reports stoking panic.

Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian leaders have been trying to talk down the prospects of an all-out war because of the damaging effect it is having on the country’s economy and are worried about the impact on public morale.

While trying to calm fears, his government has called formally for a meeting with Russia and other members of a European security group over the military buildup. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Russia has so far ignored requests to explain the deployment. Ukraine made a request for an explanation via the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE. Russia “must fulfill its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all,” Kuleba said.

On Sunday, President Zelenskiy spoke for nearly an hour by phone with U.S. President Joe Biden. The White House said President Biden reiterated U.S. support for Ukraine, and that both leaders had agreed on “the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence.”

In the latest attempt to find a diplomatic solution, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was scheduled to hold meetings with President Zelenskiy in Kyiv later Monday, and with President Putin in Moscow on Tuesday. The chancellor has warned of severe economic consequences for Russia should it launch any invasion, echoing statements by other Western leaders.
…

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been going on for a long time and has many fronts, not just military. The religious schism between the Moscow and Kyiv Patriarchates of the Orthodox Church, and the struggle over the use of the Russian or Ukrainian language are two important battlegrounds in this conflict. Jon Spier narrates this report by Ricardo Marquina in Kyiv.
…

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is hosting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks Monday in Kyiv as Western leaders express solidarity with Ukraine amid fears of a Russian invasion.

Scholz told reporters Sunday that Russia’s buildup of troops along the border with Ukraine is a “very, very serious threat,” and that his Monday visit to Kyiv and a Tuesday stop in Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin are about finding “a way to ensure peace in Europe.”

Ukraine on Sunday requested that Russia and the other members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe take part in a meeting within two days to discuss the Russian troop movements.

“If Russia is serious when it talks about the indivisibility of security in the OSCE space, it must fulfill its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted.

The U.S. mission to the USCE expressed its support, saying in its own message, “The time for transparency is now.”

Russia has denied its plans to invade Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden assured Zelenskiy in a phone call Sunday of the U.S. commitment to “Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The White House said in a statement that Biden “made clear [to Zelenskiy] that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively, together with its allies and partners, to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

Biden has ruled out sending U.S. troops to fight alongside Ukrainians in the event of a Russian invasion, while vowing to impose “swift and severe” economic sanctions. 

The White House said Biden and Zelenskiy “agreed on the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence” to a Moscow invasion, although Western diplomatic overtures to Putin have so far failed to end the stalemate. 

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, told CNN’s “State of the Union” show that the U.S. cannot predict whether Russia might invade this week or after the Beijing Olympics end in a week, but that there is “a distinct possibility there will be a major military action.” 

While the U.S. has warned for several months of the threat of a Russian attack, Sullivan said “in the last few days” Moscow has accelerated its military buildup. 

Biden, in an hour-long call Saturday with Putin, warned the Russian leader that invading Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering.” Biden said the United States and its allies remained committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but were “equally prepared for other scenarios.”

Russia said Biden continued to fail to address Moscow’s main security concerns, including ruling out Ukraine’s possible membership in the 30-country NATO military alliance. 

The Western allies have called the idea of Russian veto power over NATO membership a nonstarter, but said they are willing to negotiate other security issues, such as positioning of missiles in NATO counties closest to Russia and NATO troop training exercises. 

Russia’s military has more than 130,000 troops to the north of Ukraine in Russian ally Belarus and along Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia, while also positioning warships to the south in the Black Sea along the Crimean Peninsula that Russia unilaterally annexed from Ukraine in 2014. 

“I’m not handicapping what will happen,” Sullivan said, but added that the U.S. and its allies would impose a “significant strategic [economic] loss” on Russia if it attacks Ukraine.  

While ruling out sending the U.S. military to fight in Ukraine, Biden sent 5,000 U.S. troops to NATO countries in eastern European countries closest to Russia to help bolster their fighting forces.  

The U.S. has urged all Americans living in Ukraine to leave immediately, and the Defense Department has pulled out 160 military advisers who had been assisting the Ukrainian government.  

Sullivan said the U.S. believes a Russian attack could start with a barrage of missiles and aerial bombings followed by a ground invasion.  

“Civilians could be killed regardless of their nationality,” he said. 

Numerous countries have ordered their diplomatic personnel to leave Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, while some are keeping smaller contingents in consulates in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, near the Polish border. 

Several international airlines have stopped flying into Ukraine because of the impending threat of warfare, although Ukraine said it has not closed its airspace. 

Dutch airline KLM said Saturday that it has canceled flights to Ukraine until further notice. 

Dutch worries about the potential danger in Ukrainian airspace are high in the wake of the 2014 shootdown of a Malaysian airliner over an area of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed rebels. All 298 people aboard were killed, including 198 Dutch citizens. 

The Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp said Sunday that its flight from Madeira, Portugal, to Kyiv was diverted to the Moldovan capital, Chisinau, after the Irish leasing company that owns the plane said it was banning flights in Ukrainian airspace. 

Some material in this report came from the Associated Press and Reuters.  
…

BEIJING — Asian stock markets fell Monday and oil prices rose amid concern about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Tokyo’s benchmark index fell by an unusually wide daily margin of 2.6%. Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul also retreated. 

On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 index tumbled 1.9% on Friday after the White House encouraged Americans to leave Ukraine within 48 hours. Other governments including Russia were pulling diplomats and their citizens out of the country. 

Russia is one of the biggest oil producers. Any military action that disrupts supplies could send shockwaves through global energy markets and industry.

“Markets are belatedly waking up to the geopolitical risks posed by Russian military action against Ukraine,” said Rabobank in a report.

The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo fell 2.6% to 26,970.34 and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1% to 24,665.17. The Kospi in Seoul retreated 1.6% to 2,703.06.

The Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.4% to 3,448.46 while Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 gained 0.6% to 7,257.70. New Zealand and Jakarta declined while Singapore was unchanged.

Investors already were on edge about Federal Reserve plans to wind down economic stimulus to cool inflation that is at a four-decade high and about how quickly Europe and other central banks would follow. 

On Friday, the S&P 500 declined to 4,418.64 for its fourth weekly loss in the past six weeks after President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the threat of a Russian attack is “immediately enough” that Americans should leave Ukraine.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.4% to 34,738.06. The Nasdaq composite dropped 2.8% to 13,791.15.

Investors moved money into Treasury bonds, gold and other assets seen as safe havens.

The market price of a 10-year Treasury rose, pushing down its yield, or the difference between the day’s price and the payout if held to maturity, to 1.91% from Thursday’s 2.03%.

Treasury prices had been falling on expectations the Fed will raise interest rates as many as seven times this year. If the Fed succeeds in cooling inflation, that would increase the buying power of the payout from bonds, making them a more attractive investment.

In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude rose $1.52 to $94.62 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added $3.22 on Friday to $93.10. Brent crude, the price basis for international oils, advanced $1.36 to $95.80 per barrel in London. It gained $3.03 the previous session to $94.44.

The dollar gained to 115.50 yen from Friday’s 115.27 yen. The euro advanced to $1.1349 from $1.1334. 
…

The guessing game about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions continued Sunday, with alarmed Western military officials and independent experts agreeing the Kremlin has amassed sufficient forces to invade Ukraine.

Disagreements persist, though, among allies over whether the military buildup is a feint designed to extract Western concessions or an invasion force primed for assault.

Washington and London believe Russia is not pretending, and that the forces deployed on three sides of Ukraine are not just mirroring an invasion force but are ready to mount an offensive.

“The worrying thing is that despite the massive amount of increased diplomacy, that military buildup has continued. It has not paused, it has continued,” Britain’s Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Saturday.

Wallace likened Western diplomacy aimed at averting a Russian invasion of Ukraine to appeasement, telling newspapers in London there’s a “whiff of Munich in the air from some in the West,” a reference to the Munich agreement of 1938 that allowed Nazi Germany to annex Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland.

Despite Wallace’s fighting talk, the British flag was lowered Sunday at the country’s Kyiv embassy, with local staff saying they had been told the mission in effect will be closed Monday, with only the ambassador and military attaches remaining.

While British officials fear Putin is ready to discount the threat of Western sanctions and has priced them into his war calculations, their counterparts in Paris and Berlin believe an escalation will not happen this week. French officials are playing down a detailed intelligence report from the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies, which has been shared with NATO allies, outlining a Russian invasion plan they believe could be scheduled for this Wednesday.

Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron talked for two hours Saturday. An Elysée palace official told French media that Putin made “no indication that he is going to go on the offensive.” French officials still hold out hopes that diplomacy can avert a conflict and say Putin and Macron agreed to pursue further dialogue, much as U.S. President Joe Biden and the Russian leader agreed to do so during their hourlong phone conversation Saturday.

Nonetheless, Paris is observing the same precautionary principle as the United States and other European nations and recommending foreign nationals leave Ukraine immediately.

“We are nevertheless extremely vigilant and alert to the Russian posture in order to avoid the worst,” a French official said. Germany is moving its consulate based in Dnipro in central Ukraine to the western Ukrainian town of Lviv. This is its second relocation — it was moved from Donetsk in 2014 when Russian armed proxies seized the city.

Britain is also moving its Kyiv consulate to Lviv, and consular staff will focus on assisting British nationals who want to leave Ukraine, say local staff, who will receive advance payments, which can be paid into foreign bank accounts, if they want.

The Kremlin denies it is planning to invade Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry Sunday accused Western media of colluding in a smear campaign against Moscow with the goal of “discrediting Russia’s fair demands on security guarantees and justifying the West’s geopolitical aspirations and militarization of the territory of Ukraine.”

Russian officials echoed a claim made Saturday by Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who also spoke on the telephone. Lavrov accused Washington of encouraging Kyiv to launch a false-flag military offensive in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, part of which has been occupied by Russian forces and Kremlin-backed proxies since 2014.

This is the mirror of a charge being made by Western officials that Russia is preparing a false-flag provocation to trick the Ukrainians into responding, giving the Kremlin a pretext for an offensive.

The Conflict Intelligence Team, a group of independent military investigators based in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, said in a statement Saturday the force Russia has massed on Ukraine’s borders is highly sophisticated and equipped for an invasion.

“We definitely cannot rule out that building up this offensive force is nothing more than an infowar. … But what we see on the ground is no different from an actual preparation for an invasion,” the group said.

References to Munich were being made Sunday by other European politicians, aside from Wallace. In Britain, senior Conservative lawmaker and chair of the British Parliament’s defense committee Tobias Ellwood criticized Western powers’ decision not to deploy forces in Ukraine to act as a deterrent in an article for The Sunday Telegraph.

“What leverage have we assembled to dissuade Vladimir Putin from invading?” he asked, “Where is the deterrence? Simply put, we have no Russia strategy.”

“As soon as we ruled out sending NATO forces into Ukraine, we were no longer in control of events,” he added. “This is about much more than Ukraine. It’s a totemic moment as we enter an era of increasing instability,” he concluded.

“In this situation of increasing tension it must be important for countries as well as others to have key diplomatic staff close to the authorities. Embassies now leaving Kyiv send absolutely the wrong signal,” tweeted former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt.

In Kyiv, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the country’s ground forces, told reporters his troops are “ready and capable.”

“We will not give up a single meter of Ukrainian land without a fight,” he said.

Ukrainian officials were fuming Sunday, though, at the Western evacuations, saying they are encouraging the Kremlin.

Ordinary Ukrainians have been calm about unfolding events, but the closure of embassies and relocation of consulates have caught their attention, and those with connections to Westerners appear now to be starting to get alarmed.

“The West does not know what to do with all this mess between Russia and Ukraine and they will be happy to get rid of the headache as soon as possible,” reckons Iuliia Osmolovska, a former Ukrainian diplomat and now an analyst at the Eastern European Security Institute, a think tank in Kyiv.

Like some other analysts and Ukrainian officials, she suspects Western powers will urge Kyiv to accept the 2015 Minsk Accord, an agreement Ukraine made with Moscow to halt fighting in the Donbass. The agreement has never been implemented and is highly unpopular in Ukraine as it would allow the Kremlin to interfere in Ukraine’s domestic politics.

Osmolovska does “not think that the West has given up on Ukraine, because it will suffer huge reputational loss worldwide,” but she doubts that the Western “threats of severe economic sanctions will deter Russia” and judges that the “Kremlin’s menacing military posture will strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in security talks with U.S. and NATO.”

A high ranking United Nations official dismissed comparisons to Munich, telling VOA: “Biden and his team are doing their best including publicly exposing potential Russian moves ahead of time to ward off the attack.”
…

U.S. President Joe Biden again warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in a telephone call Saturday of “swift and severe” consequences if Russia invades Ukraine, according to a statement from the White House.  

Biden and Putin discussed the crisis as tensions continue to grow amid concerns that Russia is ready to mount an invasion of Ukraine. Russia continues to add to the more than 100,000 troops it has amassed at the Ukrainian border in recent months.

After the call, Yury Ushakov, the Kremlin’s top foreign policy adviser, said Biden had largely repeated ideas offered in January to address Russia’s security concerns.

“But unfortunately, and this was said, these considerations do not touch upon the central, key elements of Russian initiatives,” the Kremlin official said. He added that Russia would respond to those counterproposals soon. 

Ushakov said the call was “balanced and businesslike” and that the two leaders “agreed to continue contacts at all levels.” 

But he also took issue with U.S. statements that an invasion could come soon, saying: “Hysteria has reached its peak.” 

Washington has received intelligence reports that the invasion could happen as early as Wednesday.

The White House said Biden conducted the call from the presidential retreat at Camp David, Maryland, from 11:04 a.m. EST to 12:06 p.m. EST.

“President Biden was clear that, if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our Allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia,” the White House statement said.

“President Biden was clear with President Putin that while the United States remains prepared to engage in diplomacy, in full coordination with our Allies and partners, we are equally prepared for other scenarios,” the statement added.

A senior U.S. administration official told reporters after the call there was “no change in the fundamental dynamic” of the crisis. The official said Biden again proposed diplomatic solutions and that the call ended without an indication of what Putin’s next move would be.

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has begun evacuating its staff. A U.S. State Department official told reporters Saturday that consular services at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine will be suspended beginning Sunday.

The official said Sunday is also when “American citizens will not be able to secure routine support with passport issues, visa services, any of the other routine consular services that we customarily provide from our embassies.”

The State Department previously issued an advisory warning people not to travel to Ukraine “due to the increased threats of Russian military action” and advised “those in Ukraine should depart immediately.”

A few U.S. diplomats are expected to be relocated to far western Ukraine, near Poland, a NATO ally, a move that would allow the U.S. to maintain a “diplomatic presence” in Ukraine.

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Saturday that Moscow has decided to “optimize” its diplomatic staff numbers in Ukraine, citing fears of “possible provocations from the Kyiv regime.”

Zakharova did not describe the move in detail but said the embassy and consulates in Ukraine continued to perform key functions.

Before speaking with Biden, Putin had a telephone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, who met with him in Moscow earlier in the week. During the meeting, Putin said the accusations against Russia of an imminent invasion were “provocative speculation.”

Macron’s office said that he would also discuss the crisis Saturday with Biden, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Also Saturday, Britain told its nationals to leave Ukraine, and Germany and the Netherlands told its citizens to leave as soon as possible.

Macron said he told the Russian leader that “sincere dialogue” is incompatible with escalating fears that Russia will invade Ukraine.

The two spoke for nearly two hours, Macron’s office said. It said Macron and Putin “both expressed a desire to continue dialogue” on how to “advance the Minsk accords” on the restive Donbas region as well as “security conditions and stability in Europe,” his office said, according to Agence France-Presse.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced in a statement on Saturday that he had ordered the temporary repositioning of the 160 members of the Florida National Guard who have been deployed to Ukraine since late November, according to a statement by Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.

“These troops, assigned to the 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, have been advising and mentoring Ukrainian forces as part of Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine,” the statement said. It added that the troops would be repositioned elsewhere in Europe.

“This repositioning does not signify a change in our determination to support Ukraine’s Armed Forces but will provide flexibility in assuring allies and deterring aggression,” the statement added.

Earlier Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, about what appears to be Russia’s imminent invasion of Ukraine.

“The Secretary made clear that a diplomatic path to resolving the crisis remained open, but it would require Moscow to de-escalate and engage in good-faith discussions,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement.

Blinken “reiterated that should Moscow pursue the path of aggression and further invade Ukraine, it would result in a resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic response,” the statement said.

Blinken, speaking at a press conference in Fiji, said if Putin “decides to take military action [against Ukraine] we will swiftly impose severe economic sanctions in coordination with allies and partners around the globe, will bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, we will reinforce our allies on the eastern flank. I’ll underscore this unity and result when I speak with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov later tonight.”

Blinken also spoke Saturday with U.K. Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss about the crisis. The U.S. State Department said in a statement that Blinken emphasized the importance of working with our NATO Allies and European partners in the region to impose swift, severe costs on Russia in response to any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine.”

The state also said they discussed continuing efforts to seek a diplomatic

Resolution to the crisis and that Blinken reassured the U.K. it will consult with allies and partners on any decisions the U.S. makes in Europe.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could begin “during the Olympics” or when Putin decides to order it.

Many analysts have said that Russia is unlikely to carry out any invasion before the Winter Olympics in China end February 20.

Russia now has enough forces on Ukraine’s border to conduct a major military operation, Sullivan said, and Russia could seize “significant territory” in Ukraine, including the capital, Kyiv, in an attack.

On Friday, Biden took part in a secure video call with world leaders to discuss Ukraine.

“The leaders agreed on the importance of coordinated efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine, including their readiness to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia should it choose military escalation,” according to a White House statement. In addition to Biden, the call included the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Britain, NATO, the European Union and the European Council.

A senior U.S. defense official told reporters that Biden has ordered an additional 3,000 soldiers to Poland in addition to the 1,700 already headed there. The Pentagon said the troops are being deployed to reassure NATO allies and deter any potential aggression against NATO’s eastern flank.

The Pentagon announced last week the deployment of the previous 1,700 troops to Poland along with 300 troops who were to be moved from the United States to Germany. It also announced at that time that 1,000 troops already based in Germany were to be redeployed to Romania.

Russian officials have denied they plan to invade Ukraine, but diplomatic talks with Western officials have led to a standoff. Russia has demanded that the United States and its allies reject Ukraine’s bid for membership in NATO.

The West has rejected that as a nonstarter but has said it is willing to negotiate with Moscow over missile deployment and troop exercises in Eastern European countries closest to Russia.

Western governments have been calling on Russia to take steps to de-escalate the crisis and have vowed to impose swift and severe economic sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine.

VOA State Department correspondent Cindy Saine, Carla Babb at the Pentagon and national security correspondent Jeff Seldin contributed to this report. Some information in this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
…

Waving flags and singing the national anthem, thousands of Ukrainians braved the winter cold to march across Kyiv on Saturday to show unity in the face of a feared Russian invasion.
“Panic is useless. We must unite and fight for independence,” said student Maria Shcherbenko, expressing a sentiment similar to that voiced by Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier in the day.

“I remain calm. I love Ukraine,” said Shcherbenko’s sign as the sun briefly peeked through the clouds on a cold and blustery day.

Some carried signs reading “war is not the answer,” while others held banners calling on the nation to “resist.”

Riven by an eight-year conflict that has claimed more than 14,000 lives across its Moscow-backed separatist east, Ukraine is now facing the threat of an all-out invasion by Russia.

The Kremlin has massed more than 100,000 troops around its western neighbor, staging war games across Belarus to its north and navy drills in the Black Sea to its south.

Washington has warned that war could break out any day. Western countries are pulling their diplomats out of Kyiv and ordering citizens to immediately get out of Ukraine.

Even Kyiv, despite calls for calm from Zelensky and a range of other leaders, has prepared a plan to evacuate the capital’s three million residents.

“We are here to show that we are not afraid,” said Nazar Novoselsky, who joined the march across Kyiv’s central avenues with his two little children.

“We will lay our soul and body for the cherished freedom,” the crowd sang—words from the national anthem—just as they had done en masse in the months leading to Ukraine’s 2014 pro-EU revolution.

After the 2014 revolt, the Kremlin annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula and backed an insurgency across parts of the former Soviet republic’s Russian-speaking industrial east.

Relations between Moscow and Kyiv have been severely strained ever since, with that tension showing in the crowd.

Many showed their support for NATO—the Western defense alliance at the heart of Russia’s dispute with the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants binding security guarantees that NATO will never expand into Ukraine, also demanding that it pull out of eastern European countries that were under the Kremlin’s influence during the Cold War.

But a pledge to join NATO is written into Ukraine’s new constitution, and Washington has rejected the Kremlin’s demands.

“Into NATO, immediately,” said one sign, held up by Oleksiy Tkachenko, a 70-year-old retiree.

“Why should Putin be telling us what to do,” Natalia Savostikova, a 67-year-old doctor, demanded.
…

Turkey’s president announced on Saturday a 7 percentage-point reduction in taxes added to basic food supplies as the country faces rampant inflation.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the value-added tax would be lowered to 1% from 8% on food purchases. His decision would be published in the Official Gazette and go into effect Monday.

Erdogan said that, in addition to the tax discount, the government “expects” food companies to lower their prices by 7%. He said those foods play a significant part in inflation.

Official data for January showed inflation rose to a staggering 48.69% annually, though independent experts say it’s more than 115%.

“We will not let inflation crush our nation,” Erdogan said.

Critics, however, say the country is suffering from high inflation because of Erdogan’s insistence on lowering interest rates. He believes inflation is caused by high interest rates, in opposition to established economic theory.

The central bank, whose independence has been eroded by the government, had brought down the key policy rate by 500 points since September to 14 percent, but paused rate cuts in January. A currency crisis was triggered by the cuts and the Turkish lira hit record lows in December. Because Turkey relies on imports for its energy needs as well as raw materials and many food supplies, prices have skyrocketed.

The lira closed this week at 13.49 against the dollar. The record low in December was 18.36. 

Erdogan’s Minister of Treasury and Finance, Nureddin Nebati, also announced a step to encourage people to bring gold that they have been keeping “under the pillow.” He said 1,500 gold drop-off locations would begin operation on March 1 to integrate the precious metal into the financial system as deposits.

He added people would be able to withdraw their gold in physical form if they wished to.

 
…

Britain joined the United States on Friday in urging foreign nationals to evacuate Ukraine while there are still commercial means to do so. The British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office updated its advice shortly after the country’s defense minister, Ben Wallace, flew out of Moscow after talks with senior Kremlin figures.

Estonia is also urging citizens to leave Ukraine immediately due to “an increased risk of military action by Russia.” The evacuation calls came as senior U.S. officials warned that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and had sufficient forces deployed to do so.

The European Union’s envoy to Ukraine, Matti Maasikas, has urged nonessential staff at its embassy in the Ukrainian capital to leave amid heightening tension with Russia.

“I have urged all expat colleagues with the exception of the essential staff to leave Ukraine ASAP to telework from outside the country,” he wrote in an email message to EU diplomats. “I feel very sad,” he added.

A European Commission spokesperson, however, emphasized that the EU isn’t pulling out all diplomats. “We continue to assess the situation as it develops, in line with the duty of care we have towards our staff and in close consultation and coordination with the EU member states,” said Peter Stano, the foreign affairs spokesman.

The Kremlin denies it has any intentions to invade and is accusing Washington and London of provocative alarmism.

“The hysteria of the White House is more indicative than ever,” said Maria Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson,  Friday.

“The Anglo-Saxons need a war. At any cost. Provocations, misinformation and threats are a favorite method of solving their own problems,” she added.

While senior Ukrainian officials acknowledge the threat of a Russian “provocation,” there is deep frustration in Kyiv with the calls for foreign nationals to leave, with concerns mounting that the message is demoralizing for Ukrainians and at this stage premature. Ukraine has frequently played down warnings from the United States, and Ukrainian officials say they are seeing “nothing new” in Russian military activity now.

The secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, said Ukrainian authorities are “well aware” of the possible provocations Russia could stage. “We are currently considering all options,” he added.

Ukraine says it is giving Russia 48 hours to explain the presence of its troops at the border under the terms of the Vienna Document, a series of agreements on European security. But Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian foreign minister, said the statement is “not evidence of some radical change of the situation.”

Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands have also asked their citizens in Ukraine to leave.

British diplomats say a meeting Friday between the heads of government and ministers of NATO members was sobering. “Next week is the working assumption,” a senior British official said. During the meeting U.S. President Joe Biden was clear an invasion was imminent, he added.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the meeting “he feared for the security of Europe in the current circumstances,” Downing Street said in a statement.

“He impressed the need for NATO allies to make it absolutely clear that there will be a heavy package of economic sanctions ready to go should Russia make the devastating and destructive decision to invade Ukraine,” the statement continued.

Some British lawmakers added their concerns to Ukrainian worries that the calls for departures and evacuations were sending the wrong signals to Moscow and suggest the West is giving up on Ukraine. Tobias Ellwood, a Conservative member of Parliament and chair of the House of Commons Defence Committee, said the rhetoric being used by Washington and London appears to be “bordering on panic.”

Ellwood conceded the governments have a duty of care for their citizens, particularly when the threat picture changes.

“But it’s almost bordering on panic and that absolutely fits into [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s objective. He’ll be delighted to see the West and the NATO alliance crumbling in this way.”

Ellwood has been advocating for a serious NATO force to be deployed in Ukraine for weeks, arguing that would be the only way to deter Russia. “The least we can do now is provide a no-fly zone,” he added.

Ukraine’s envoy in London has also been arguing for NATO deployments. Britain should send troops to Ukraine to deter an invasion, Vadym Prystaiko told The Times of London.

Most of the thousands of Britons and Americans in Ukraine have deep roots there. Many have dual nationality, strong family ties and are married to Ukrainians and are unlikely to leave. U.S. Embassy staff have been telephoning American nationals in Ukraine urging them to evacuate.

Biden has announced military plans to fly American troops into Poland to help with any evacuations, hoping to avoid the chaos seen during the August U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan. Britain is also drafting evacuation plans. Like the Americans, Britain is planning to evacuate more Kyiv-based diplomats and to relocate them to Poland, British officials say.

“The aim is to strip down to the bare bones,” an official told VOA. 

 
…

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says he will speak with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, later Saturday about what appears to be Russia’s imminent invasion of Ukraine.

Blinken, speaking at a press conference in Fiji, said if Russan President Vladimir Putin “decides to take military action [against Ukraine] we will swiftly impose severe economic sanctions in coordination with allies and partners around the globe, will bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, we will reinforce our allies on the eastern flank.  I’ll underscore this unity and result when I speak with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov later tonight.”

Unnamed U.S. intelligence officials told The Associated Press that Washington is ready to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv in anticipation of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The AP story says the State Department will announce plans early Saturday that would require all American embassy staff to leave Ukraine because of the anticipated invasion.

A few U.S. diplomats may be relocated to far western Ukraine, near Poland, a NATO ally, the anonymous government officials, who are not authorized to speak, told AP.  That move would allow the U.S. to maintain a “diplomatic presence” in Ukraine.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said a Russian invasion of Ukraine could begin “during the Olympics.”

Sullivan, speaking at a White House briefing Friday, said “we are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should [Russian President] Vladimir Putin decide to order it.”

Many analysts have said that Russia is unlikely to carry out any invasion before the Winter Olympics in China end Feb. 20.

Russia now has enough forces on Ukraine’s border to conduct a major military operation, Sullivan said, and Russia could seize “significant territory” in Ukraine, including the capital, Kyiv, in an attack.

He urged Americans in Ukraine to leave in the next 24-48 hours, saying a Russian invasion could begin with an air assault that would make departures difficult.

“The risk is high enough and the threat is now immediate enough that prudence demands that it is the time to leave now,” Sullivan said.

Also Friday, U.S. President Joe Biden took part in a secure video call with world leaders to discuss Ukraine.

“The leaders agreed on the importance of coordinated efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine, including their readiness to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia should it choose military escalation,” according to a White House statement. In addition to Biden, the call included the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Britain, NATO, the European Union and the European Council.

A senior U.S. defense official told reporters that Biden has ordered an additional 3,000 soldiers to Poland in addition to the 1,700 already headed there. The Pentagon said the troops are being deployed to reassure NATO allies and deter any potential aggression against NATO’s eastern flank.

The Pentagon announced last week the deployment of the previous 1,700 troops to Poland along with 300 troops who were to be moved from the United States to Germany. It also announced at that time that 1,000 troops already based in Germany were to be redeployed to Romania.

Speaking Friday with several of his counterparts in NATO countries, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States stands “united with our NATO Allies to deter and defend against any aggression,” according to a Pentagon statement.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke by phone with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba Friday “to reaffirm the United States’ robust support for Ukraine.”

Blinken “underscored that any and all aggression against Ukraine by Russia will be met with swift, severe and united consequences,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said.

The comments by the U.S. led to the biggest drop in Russia’s ruble in nearly two years. The ruble was down 2.8% Friday, set for its largest daily percentage drop against the dollar since March 2020.

Earlier Friday, Blinken warned of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine at “any time” and urged U.S. citizens to leave the Eastern European country immediately.

He made his comments after meeting in Australia with leaders of the so-called Quad countries — the United States, Australia, Japan and India.

Blinken’s warning also came one day after Biden urged Americans to leave the country immediately and warned in an interview with NBC News of a potential major conflict with Russia should a clash erupt between U.S. and Russian troops.

On Thursday, Biden said, “We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. This is a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly.”

The U.S. president said he would not send troops to Ukraine, even to rescue Americans in case of a Russian invasion.

“That’s a world war. When Americans and Russians start shooting one another, we’re in a very different world,” he said.

Russia opened 10 days of massive military drills in Belarus on Thursday and docked six of its ships at a strategic Black Sea port, drawing a sharp rebuke from Ukrainian officials, who characterized Moscow’s actions as further escalating tensions in the region.

The Russian maneuvers in Belarus involved thousands of troops and sophisticated weapons systems, such as S-400 surface-to-air missiles, Pantsir air defense systems and Su-35 fighter jets, with some of the training just 210 kilometers north of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

Officials in Moscow and Minsk have said Russian troops will withdraw from Belarus sometime after the drills end Feb. 20. But Western officials remain fearful they could be deployed in a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a onetime Soviet republic, along with 100,000 troops Moscow has amassed along Ukraine’s eastern flank.

Ukrainian officials, who launched their own drills on Thursday, assailed the impending Black Sea naval drills, characterizing them as “destructive activity to destabilize the security situation.” Kyiv accused Russia of violating international law by restricting wide swaths of open water to conduct missile and artillery fire training.

Russian officials have denied they plan to invade Ukraine, but diplomatic talks with Western officials have led to a standoff. Russia has demanded that the United States and its allies reject Ukraine’s bid for membership in NATO.

The West has rejected that as a nonstarter but has said it is willing to negotiate with Moscow over missile deployment and troop exercises in Eastern European countries closest to Russia.

Western governments have been calling on Russia to take steps to de-escalate the crisis and have vowed to impose swift and severe economic sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine.

Some information in this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.  

  
…

Facing increasing pressure from China, Lithuania has been gaining support this week in a standoff that began over trade and was elevated when the small Baltic nation became the first European Union member to allow Taiwan to use its name on a de facto embassy.

Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis met on Wednesday and agreed to step up cooperation on challenges rising from China’s pressure on both countries. Landsbergis traveled to Canberra to open Vilnius’ first embassy in Australia.

Payne said it’s important for like-minded countries to work together to maintain an international rules-based order. “We are sending the strongest possible message about our rejection of coercion and our rejection of authoritarianism,” she said.

That meeting came after Britain announced on Monday that it would be joining an EU case against China over Beijing’s trade curbs on Lithuania. The EU launched a challenge at the World Trade Organization late last month, accusing China of discriminatory trade practices against Lithuania.

“We support our allies, Lithuania & the EU, in standing against China’s use of coercive trading practices,” Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Britain’s international trade secretary, said on Twitter.

The dispute began early in 2021, when Lithuania’s talks with China about export permits for feed, nonanimal products and edible offal began faltering, according to The Baltic Times. By August, Beijing had stopped approving new permits for Lithuanian food exports to China and halted direct freight train service to Lithuania.

On November 18, Lithuanian authorities allowed Taiwan to open a representative office in its capital under the name “Taiwan” instead of “Taipei,” the term preferred by Beijing, which views Taiwan as part of its territory.

Since then, China has recalled its ambassador from Vilnius while ordering Lithuania’s ambassador to leave Beijing, and it has implemented an embargo against Lithuania, boycotting all its exports as well as any EU products that use Lithuanian-made components.

By December 9, China was “sending messages to multinationals that if they use parts and supplies from Lithuania, they will no longer be allowed to sell to the Chinese market or get supplies there,” according to Mantas Adomenas, Lithuania’s vice minister for foreign affairs.

‘Wake-up call’

Jonathan Hackenbroich, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Task Force for Strengthening Europe Against Economic Coercion, called China’s move “a wake-up call.”

“Imagine China has disputes with Lithuania, and then it starts telling German, French and Swedish companies to stop trading with Lithuania. Then you could easily imagine if China had a dispute with Taiwan or another country, it could also start telling German, French or Swedish companies to stop trading with that country,” Hackenbroich told VOA Mandarin in a phone interview. “Now Beijing has done it once. You can’t exclude the possibility that it will happen in the future.”

The European Commission in December proposed legislation to create an EU anti-coercion instrument, with the goal of strengthening the protection of its members against economic coercion. It’s the first legal framework allowing EU members to act against economic coercion by nonmember states.

“You will have the full power of the EU market in response to grave acts of economic coercion,” Hackenbroich said.

At a daily press briefing Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said that China was adhering to WTO rules in its dealings with Lithuania.

“The ins and outs of the fraught China-Lithuania relations are very clear,” he said. “China has responded properly in defense of its legitimate rights and interests and international justice, which is completely legitimate and lawful. China always follows WTO rules.

“The so-called ‘coercion’ of China against Lithuania is purely made out of thin air,” Zhao said. He added that Lithuania “should stop confounding right with wrong and maliciously hyping things up, let alone trying to rope other countries in to gang up on China.”

Optimism on anti-coercion measure

Matas Maldeikis, a member of the Lithuanian Parliament, told VOA Mandarin that France, which holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union from January to June this year, has promised to accelerate adoption of the anti-coercion instrument.

“Unfortunately, as we have to negotiate between the 27 very different countries, it takes time to come to decisions. Good news is many understand the necessity of such an instrument and the importance of unity within the EU,” he told VOA in an email.

Andrius Kubilius, a member of the European Parliament and former prime minister of Lithuania, told CNN in January that he didn’t expect bigger EU countries to take it upon themselves to stand up to China. But, he added, “maybe from Lithuania it will spread to others, and in time, Europe will stand united against a country that doesn’t meet our standards.”

“China needs to learn lessons, because until now, they have been allowed to behave in a way that doesn’t adhere to our values and rules, simply because they were so wealthy,” he told CNN.

Kubilius told VOA in an email that EU members could adopt several actions to help counter economic coercion, including taking a “unified stance,” settling disputes in the WTO and providing EU financial support for businesses that suffer losses.
…

Spanish power company Iberdrola is suing the holding company of business news site El Confidencial over coverage of an industrial espionage case, a move the site’s director says threatens its survival.

The multinational energy firm, which is seeking $20 million in damages, said that for more than two years up to November 2021, El Confidencial published 225 stories on the espionage case, including 68 that harmed the company and 12 that were untrue.

The company contends the reports were a “violation of its right to honour,” a term that in Spanish law refers to reputational damage.

Such cases are rare in Spanish business, where public companies don’t often take legal action against the news media, especially for large sums.

El Confidencial is a respected publisher known for exclusive stories about business. Nacho Cardero, the site’s director, told VOA, “This is an attempt to silence El Confidencial and is an attack on the freedom of the press.”

“Logically, if this case succeeds, then it will mean the closure of El Confidencial,” Cardero said. “But it will not stop us from reporting on this case or this company.”

Company, 4 executives investigated

El Confidencial reported on a wide-ranging criminal investigation into Iberdrola’s alleged role in an industrial espionage case in which Iberdrola and four of its executives are being investigated. None of the four has been charged with any offenses, and all deny wrongdoing.

At least a dozen Spanish companies are being investigated about allegations that they paid a police officer, who also ran a private company while working for the police, to carry out investigations into rival firms. The National Criminal Court, which handles Spain’s biggest fraud and terrorism cases, is conducting the complicated probe.

Cardero said El Confidencial has 200 staff members and in December had 18.8 million unique monthly visitors to its website. Its holding company, Titania Compañia Editorial S.L., reported income in 2020 of $22.85 million and a profit of $5.14 million.

“The court case was not good news, but we are not afraid,” Cardero said. He noted that in all the Iberdrola coverage, there was only one correction.

A spokesperson for Iberdrola, whose market capitalization exceeds $69 billion and whose annual revenue in 2020 was $37.7 billion, declined to identify the El Confidencial stories at the center of the legal case.

“We have initiated legal action in relation to a significant number of articles published over the last two years that include false information,” the spokesperson said. Iberdrola declined to name the spokesperson, citing company policy.

‘Exceptional circumstance’

“We fully support the freedom of the press,” the spokesperson said. “This is an exceptional circumstance that we never wanted to initiate, but we need to defend ourselves following two years in which multiple articles have been published with materially false information.”

Iberdrola argues in its submission to the court that El Confidencial carried out a campaign of “aggressive and biased” coverage of the company, said the Iberdrola spokesperson.

The company’s legal submission was accompanied by two legal reports.

One was written by Justo Villafañe, a professor of corporate reputation at the Complutense University in Madrid, who evaluated 225 articles up to November 2021.

The second report was by the law firm Alvarez & Marsal, which assessed the damages caused to Iberdrola at $20 million. The claim related to 12 articles that, Iberdrola said, were “flagrant examples of transgression of truthfulness.”

Media groups in Spain and elsewhere have condemned the case.

“Faced with Iberdrola’s lawsuit against El Confidencial for alleged violation of the right to honour, [we] defend the fundamental right to information based on the assumption that the information in this digital medium is truthful,” the Federation of Associations of Spanish Journalists and the Association of Economic Information Journalists said in a statement.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF), based in Paris, called the lawsuit an attempt at intimidation.

“We urge the electric company to reconsider and withdraw all legal actions against El Confidencial,” Edith Rodríguez Cachera, RSF vice president in Spain, said in a statement.

Iberdrola’s lawsuit was filed with a court in Bilbao in northern Spain on January 21. Judges at the court must decide if there is a case to answer before proceeding.

Iberdrola has said that if the defamation case is successful, it will give any awarded damages to nonprofit organizations.

Some information for this report came from Reuters. 
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The International Criminal Court will next week hear an appeal by Ugandan former Lord’s Resistance Army commander Dominic Ongwen against his conviction for war crimes and crimes against humanity. 

Ongwen, a former child soldier in the notorious rebel group led by the fugitive Joseph Kony in the early 2000s, was sentenced by the ICC in May last year to 25 years in jail for murder, rape and sexual enslavement. 

Ongwen, whose nom de guerre was “White Ant,” had protested his innocence and cited his own history of being kidnapped while on his way to school by the LRA, and brutalized.  

“The appeal brought against the conviction is the largest ever considered by the chamber, raising complex and novel issues,” the ICC said in a statement announcing the appeal hearings, which will run from Monday to Friday.   

Ongwen’s lawyers have raised 90 grounds of appeal against the verdict and 11 against the sentence, alleging “legal, factual and procedural errors” by the court, the Hague-based ICC said.  

 The LRA was founded three decades ago by former Catholic altar boy and self-styled prophet Kony, who launched a bloody rebellion in northern Uganda against President Yoweri Museveni. 

Its brutal campaign to set up a state based on the Bible’s Ten Commandments left more than 100,000 people dead and 60,000 children abducted, eventually spreading to Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic.   

Ongwen handed himself in to the ICC in 2015 and was convicted of 61 charges. He was also the first person convicted by the ICC of the crime of forced pregnancy.  

Judges said in their verdict that Ongwen personally ordered his soldiers to carry out massacres of more than 130 civilians at the Lukodi, Pajule, Odek and Abok refugee camps between 2002 and 2005.   

Civilians were locked in their homes and burned to death or beaten during the massacres, while mothers were made to transport the LRA’s loot, forcing them to abandon their infant children by the roadside. 

But the court held back from the maximum possible 30-year sentence for his crimes, saying that his traumatic past as a child soldier was a mitigating factor. 
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Editor’s note: Here is a fast take on what the international community has been up to this past week, as seen from the United Nations perch. 

Ukraine defiant in face of Russian threat 

Ukraine’s U.N. ambassador in Geneva said Friday that her country will not bow to threats of military action from Russia and is prepared to fight to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

Ukraine Remains Defiant in Face of Russian Invasion Threat 

Hunger spreading in Horn of Africa

UNICEF warned Wednesday that the Horn of Africa is facing a climate-induced emergency. As many as 20 million people in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia could need water and food assistance in the next six months due to severe recurring drought. 

Horn of Africa Facing Climate-induced Emergency 

Coups on the rise in Africa 

Military coups have been on the rise in Africa over the last year-and-a-half, prompting U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to declare that there is an “epidemic” of them. Burkina Faso is the latest, and Guinea-Bissau averted one on February 2. VOA takes a deeper look at the factors fueling these power grabs. 

By the Numbers: Coups in Africa 

In brief 

— Secretary-General Antonio Guterres attended the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. On the sidelines, he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. According to a readout, they discussed the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and world conflicts. The secretary-general also told the Chinese officials that he expects them to allow for a “credible visit” of his High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, to China, including to Xinjiang, the province where the country’s oppressed Uyghur Muslim minority lives. China has been promising such a visit for several years, and recently said it is fine as long as Bachelet comes to have an exchange, not an investigation. Beijing denies it violates the rights of Uyghurs and says it is combating terrorism. 

— Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed traveled to Addis Ababa for the African Union Summit last weekend. She then visited conflict zones in northern Ethiopia, going to Tigray where she met with the regional president, and to the neighboring provinces of Afar and Amhara, where fighting and its consequences have spilled over, as well as to the Somali region. The U.N. has been seeking a halt to the fighting in the north and expanded access for humanitarian workers. 

— Tropical Cyclone Batsirai made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar on Saturday night, local time. The intense storm killed at least 21 people, including several children, and displaced more than 62,000 people. The U.N. said this week that it is working with its humanitarian partners and coordinating with the government. Surge teams have been deployed and a humanitarian air bridge set up. By Friday, the WFP had distributed 10,000 hot meals at shelters and distributed other food aid to displaced persons. 

— UNESCO expressed concern on Thursday about journalists working in Myanmar. The U.N.’s cultural organization said that in the past year since the military seized power, at least 146 journalists have been arrested, while some 52 journalists, including 12 women, remain under detention. At least three reporters are known to have died in detention. 

Some good news 

After a year-long absence, the iconic tapestry of Pablo Picasso’s anti-war masterpiece “Guernica,” was returned to its place of honor outside the U.N. Security Council on Saturday. 

Iconic Tapestry of Picasso’s ‘Guernica’ Back at UN 

Quote of note 

“What we’re appealing for as humanitarian organizations on the ground, is that this military, political strategic chess game, involving Moscow and Minsk and Brussels and Washington and other capitals, that it is concentrating on helping people survive on the ground, protecting them, and avoiding a senseless conflict. Everybody would lose from the conflict, but first and foremost the two million people who live within 20 kilometers from the frontline.” 

— Jan Egeland, secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, telling VOA in an interview on Monday about his visit last week to eastern Ukraine. 

What we are watching next week 

On February 17, the U.N. Security Council will hold its annual meeting on the implementation of the Minsk agreements, which lay out the path to a political settlement in eastern Ukraine between Kyiv and Russian-backed separatists. In February 2015, the Security Council endorsed Minsk II in a resolution. This year’s discussion takes place against the backdrop of the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Did you know? 

The U.N. corridors and grounds are full of art, sculptures and unique objects donated by governments, foundations and individual donors, many of which can be seen on public tours of the complex. The Guernica tapestry, mentioned above, is a gift of the American Rockefeller family. (They also donated the land the U.N. complex is built on in New York.) There is also a section of the Berlin Wall on the compound’s north lawn and a fountain paid for by U.S. schoolchildren at the southern entrance to the complex. Among the objects on display in the corridors is a model of the ornate Royal Thai Barge “Suphannahong” carved from teak wood, and a black pot from 300 B.C. from Sudan. On the first floor, there is a painting of a white dove of peace by Macedonian painter Vasko Taskovski. 

 
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As Russia builds up forces along Ukraine’s borders and Chinese officials seek to punish Lithuania for opening a door to Taiwan, the heads of the Lithuanian parliament’s defense and foreign affairs committees called on their allies in Washington for support.

Their message was clear: Lithuania is holding the line against two of America’s most powerful challengers and that U.S. support is critical to its success in defending against aggression from Moscow and Beijing.

“This week in Washington, we’re here to address two issues. One is security, and it’s about Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic region. The other one is China. Those are trade issues, but not only trade issues. It’s about our security as well,” Laima Liucija Andrikiene, chair of the parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, told VOA as she and her colleagues wrapped up a weeklong trip to Washington on Feb. 3.

The delegation was made up of four lawmakers in charge of national security, defense and foreign affairs committees in the Lithuanian parliament, known as the Seimas. They met members of both the Senate and House Baltic caucuses, as well as Democratic Senator Bob Menendez and Republican Senator James E. Risch, the chairman and ranking senior minority member of U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, among others.

“The biggest thing happening right now is Russian buildup around Ukraine, it creates so-called strategic uncertainty, which means different scenarios are possible,” said Laurynas Kasciunas, chairman of the National Security and Defense Committee. Whether through negotiations or the “military scenario,” Russia’s goals are the same, he said.

He said Moscow wants not only to “have the veto right” to prevent any NATO enlargement to the east, but also to “create a two- or three-tiered NATO, with second-class membership for the Baltic states,” meaning Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia would remain in NATO formally but “without military exercises in our region, without NATO deployment in our region.”

“We are against that, we reject that, it’s very good for the U.S. and NATO to respond and say they reject this as well,” he said.

Kasciunas also voiced concern about Belarus, his country’s neighbor to the east, which he said has “lost its sovereignty and neutrality” since President Alexander Lukashenko turned to Moscow for help when threatened by mass protests over a disputed 2020 election.

Lithuania has since become a safe haven for activists fleeing Belarus, including exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her children.

Russia’s deployment of troops into Belarus as part of a buildup for a potential invasion of Ukraine demonstrates how quickly Lithuania — a NATO member state — could be subjected to similar pressure, Kasciunas said. “If two years ago Lukashenko could have 48 hours neutrality, now he [presents] zero neutrality.”

Lithuania this week welcomed decisions made by Germany and the Netherlands to increase the number of troops deployed to Lithuania. U.S. help is also critical, Kasciunas said. He described what this help could look like.

“We have now a rotating military battalion, but we need more combat-ready, more integrated into our national system,” he said. Even more importantly, “no gaps” between rotations, he said.

Until now, U.S. troop rotations into Lithuania have sometimes been separated by weeks or even months, an official at the Lithuanian Embassy told VOA.

Dovile Sakaliene, another National Security and Defense Committee member who was not part of the delegation, said she agrees. “Deterrence is much cheaper than defense,” she said in a phone interview from Lithuania.

“We feel like West Berlin in Cold War times,” Kasciunas said. “We have only a small corridor, the Suwalki Gap, which links us Baltic states with the rest of the NATO system via Poland. Just like NATO defended and deterred the Soviets in West Berlin, we’re also asking NATO to deter possible attacks in the Baltics.”

Kasciunas also recounted some of the decisions made during what he called “a year of anti-communism fight” that angered Beijing, beginning with a strong investment screening mechanism aimed at protecting Lithuania’s strategic assets and ending with an agreement to let Taiwan establish a representative office using the name Taiwan.

“They decided to punish us, not only to punish us but also to prevent others from following suit,” Kasciunas said.

“They not only banned our exports to China, but also Chinese export to Lithuania, which created a lot of problems for companies that depended on Chinese import for their production. And they also harassed international companies, which in their supply chain had some small Lithuanian element, especially German companies.

“They want to make Lithuania a noncredible financial partner, not attractive to foreign direct investment,” he said.

Andrikiene, the Foreign Affairs Committee chair, pointed out that Lithuania became an independent state after 50 years of Soviet occupation 32 years ago. “Without allies, like-minded countries, other democracies from whichever region of the world, we simply wouldn’t have survived, let alone become a successful European Union and NATO member state,” she said.

The presence and concrete support of worldwide democracies is critical, the Lithuanian lawmakers say, if they are to rally their own population and stand up to China’s attempts to isolate the country and harm its image.

One way the U.S. could help is by connecting their northeastern European state with countries providing market access in the Asia-Pacific region, Andrikiene said.

“The United States maintains a dialogue with the Indo-Pacific region, and we were asking for their expertise, their experience and their support for Lithuania. That would be a very concrete assistance and support in addition to political support and resolutions,” she said.

Kori Schake, a senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, told VOA in an exchange of emails that China “is draconian in response to small states’ bravery, fearing that if they aren’t made examples of, others will also gain the courage to resist China’s intimidation.”

Ensuring Lithuania’s success, she said, “is the right response” because it demonstrates solidarity with frontline states that dare to question and spotlight Chinese strategic intentions and practices.

“Same for Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and other countries China is trying to intimidate,” she said.

VOA’s Mandarin Service assisted with filming and video editing.
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A ranking officer in one of North Korea’s elite military cyberwarfare units is being held in an undisclosed location in far eastern Russia after Moscow’s agents thwarted his attempt to defect, according to sources familiar with the matter and documents obtained by VOA’s Korean Service.

Major Choe Kum Chol, a top information technology (IT) specialist in the North Korean People’s Army (KPA), has been held by North Korea’s consulate general in Vladivostok since September after being arrested by Russian police in Razdolnoe, a city about an hour by car from the Pacific Ocean port city. Choe, 33, had been hiding in Razdolnoe to avoid North Korean authorities who had been hunting for him since July when he left his post in Vladivostok after deciding to seek asylum from the Moscow office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), according to multiple sources in Russia who knew Choe.

VOA’s Korean Service has verified the credibility of sources who provided information on Choe and has been in touch with them for several months. To protect their identities, the service cannot provide further information about them. The sources approached VOA hoping to generate international interest in Choe’s case. They provided a copy of Choe’s passport, screenshots of text messages Choe exchanged with several of them, and other documents.

Vladivostok has long maintained Russia’s connections with North Korea. Despite United Nations prohibitions on employing North Koreans, many still work in the area and send home their ruble wages to a regime starved for hard currency. And, according to Japan’s Kyodo News, a group of North Korean IT experts moved from Hong Kong to Vladivostok to evade United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2397 passed in December 2017, prohibiting countries from authorizing work permits to North Korean workers and requiring their departure from overseas jobs by December 2019.

VOA’s Korean Service contacted the UNHCR’s Moscow and Europe regional bureaus as well as the Russian Foreign Ministry and asked if they were aware of Choe’s attempts to seek asylum. Only the Moscow UNHCR office replied, saying Tuesday, “Please note that UNHCR does not provide comments on individual cases.”

Elite education and career

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in 2013 that cyberwarfare, along with nuclear weapons and missiles, are an “all-purpose sword” that guarantees the military’s strike capabilities.

The regime selects young students to train them as hackers, according to a report by South Korea’s public media outlet, KBS.

According to Choe’s credentials obtained by VOA’s Korean Service, he was among those selected for elite training. He received his education in Pyongyang, attending the prestigious Geumseong School for middle and high school and Kim Chaek University of Technology for undergraduate and graduate school. North Korea combines middle and high school education in a six-year program.

Most Kim Chaek graduates are assigned to cyberwarfare units to work as hackers.

But even though Choe was an elite member of an elite force, like any other North Korean working overseas, he was under constant surveillance by Pyongyang, first in China and then in Russia.

The computer encryption specialist was assigned to Vladivostok in May 2019, according to VOA’s Korean Service sources, where he worked in a cyberwarfare unit tasked with undertaking intelligence missions while obtaining much-needed hard currency.

The North Korean won is largely worthless on international markets, and international sanctions have reduced Pyongyang’s access to trade that once provided foreign currency.

North Korea has increasingly resorted to attacks conducted by its cyberintelligence units to steal cryptocurrencies to support development of its nuclear and missile programs to replace income lost due to sanctions, according to a confidential U.N. report obtained by Reuters on Saturday.

According to the report, “DPRK cyberactors stole more than $50 million between 2020 and mid-2021 from at least three cryptocurrency exchanges in North America, Europe and Asia.” North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), also uses its hackers to steal technical information.

Shattered dream

According to sources and documents obtained by VOA’s Korean Service, Choe made the decision to defect after losing hope for his future.

North Korea is one of the of the most repressive countries in the world, according to a Human Rights Watch report. Under Kim, the third leader of a nearly 75-year dynasty, the totalitarian government maintains “fearful obedience using threats of execution, imprisonment, enforced disappearance, and forced labor.” During the pandemic, the country has become even more isolated, according to the report.

A source told VOA’s Korean Service that Choe “would see [while working overseas] that nothing in North Korea changed.”

The same source said Choe had spoken of why he wanted to defect.

“He was young. He said he didn’t want to sacrifice his life for Kim Jong Un’s regime. It rules with lies and dictatorship. He said his dream was to live happily in a free world,” continued the source. 

According to VOA’s Korean Service sources, Choe evaded his minders in Vladivostok in July and hid in Razdolnoe as instructed by a network that helps defectors seek asylum from the Moscow office of the UNHCR.

Plan thwarted

The source who knew of Choe’s decision to defect said he last heard from Choe on Sept. 20, the day he was arrested by Russian police. VOA’s Korean Service could not determine how the police knew where Choe was hiding.

“I received a text message from Choe asking for help. He said five police officers came looking for him,” said the source.

Russian authorities handed him over to the North Korean consulate in Vladivostok.

Russian police have a history of arresting North Korean defectors at the request of Pyongyang. According to the U.S. State Department’s human rights report on Russia released in March 2021, Russian police “committed enforced disappearances and abductions” in 2020.

“The Civic Assistance Committee reported that a North Korean citizen who was seeking asylum in Vladivostok was taken to the Artyom City Police Department by individuals in civilian clothes, where he subsequently disappeared,” the report said.

The Civic Assistance Committee (CAC) is a Moscow-based nonprofit organization comprised of a team of lawyers, doctors, consultants, aid workers and interpreters who help refugees and migrants in Russia.

According to a report by the CAC released in 2020, Russia’s Deputy Head of the Federal Migration Service Nikolay Smorodin signed an agreement with North Korean Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Pak Myung Guk in February 2016 to transfer North Koreans who are trying to defect.

“The Russian government legalized the forcible deportation to the DPRK of those Koreans,” said the report.

Svetlana Gannushkina, who heads CAC, told VOA’s Korean Service on Wednesday she had been unaware of Choe’s situation until contacted by the Korean Service.

“We have a lawyer in that city who knows all about Koreans who reside there,” said Gannushkina, referring to Vladivostok. “I’ll try to get more information about (Choe),” she said through an interpreter.

Dangerous decision

The source who last heard from Choe said they and others decided to disclose Choe’s information to VOA’s Korean Service hoping the international community would step in to help.

Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation and a leading North Korean human rights activist, said, “It’s extremely dangerous” for North Koreans who are trying to defect and seek asylum.

“The UNHCR is doing the best (it) can trying to facilitate any refugees that are seeking asylum, but it’s such a difficult environment. And I think North Korea is very aggressive at tracking down and trying to force back anybody who’s trying to escape,” said Scholte.

Several sources said Choe might not have been repatriated to North Korea immediately after his arrest due to Pyongyang’s fear that he might bring COVID-19 into the country. North Korea has virtually sealed itself off from the world since January 2020, although last month it partially reopened the borders it shares with China to allow passage by North Korean freight trains, according to commercial satellite images tracked by The Associated Press.

Value of knowledge

According to Choe’s passport, screenshots of text messages Choe exchanged with several sources and other documents obtained by VOA’s Korean Service, Choe was deeply involved in Pyongyang’s overseas cyberoperations handled by its Enemy Collapse Sabotage Bureau.

The bureau is part of the General Staff Department overseen by North Korea’s military. The Enemy Collapse Sabotage Bureau and the Reconnaissance General Bureau are North Korea’s main cyberwarfare units, and the latter harbors known hacking operations such as the Lazarus Group and Hidden Cobra.

Mathew Ha, an analyst at national security research institute Valens Global, said a defection by a North Korean with Choe’s understanding of North Korea’s cyberwarfare landscape would be of “immense” value to countries such as the U.S. and South Korea.

“In terms of being able to attribute attacks back to North Korea,” a high-level defector from its military cyber command provides value “because the North Koreans have consistently denied any sort of claims from the United States or South Korea regarding (its) culpability on any major cyberattacks including (on) Sony” Pictures Entertainment in 2014.

“It (would) be very valuable,” said Ha. A defector like Choe “could potentially provide crucial information that we really want to know” about. 

 
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