U.S. President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak with transatlantic leaders Friday about the crisis in Ukraine. The White House has said that the president will inform the leaders about the U.S. efforts to pursue deterrence and diplomacy.

On Thursday, Biden said there is a “very high” likelihood that Russia will invade Ukraine in the next several days.

“We have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false-flag operation to have an excuse to go in,” Biden told reporters at the White House. “Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine.

“My sense is it will happen within the next several days,” he said.

Biden said, however, he still believes it is possible to find a diplomatic solution that would ease Russia’s concerns about NATO’s missiles and military training exercises in eastern Europe. The Western allies reject Russia’s main demand that NATO rule out the possibility of granting membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken later echoed Biden, telling the U.N. Security Council that the world can expect to see Russia attack Ukraine within days and that intelligence information indicates it could be preceded by a fabricated pretext.

“This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian government,” Blinken said. “We don’t know exactly the form it will take.”

State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Blinken “noted in his remarks at the UN Security Council today that, because we believe the only responsible way to resolve this crisis is through diplomacy and dialogue, he had proposed to meet [Russian] Foreign Minister Lavrov in Europe next week.”

Price said, “The Russians have responded with proposed dates for late next week, which we are accepting, provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine. If they do invade in the coming days, it will make clear they were never serious about diplomacy. We will continue to coordinate with our allies and partners and push for further engagements with Russia through the NATO-Russia Council and OSCE [the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe].”

Meanwhile, Moscow expelled the No. 2 U.S. diplomat from the U.S. Embassy in the Russian capital.

The State Department said the expulsion of Bart Gorman, the deputy chief of mission in Moscow, “was unprovoked, and we consider this an escalatory step and are considering our response.”

In Brussels, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Russia is continuing to mass its forces along Ukraine’s borders and that he sees no indication that Moscow is sending troops home, as it claims.

“We don’t see that,” the Pentagon chief said at a meeting of NATO defense ministers. “Quite the contrary, we see them add to the more than 150,000 troops they already have arrayed along that border. … We even see them stocking up their blood supplies.”

“I know firsthand that you don’t do these sorts of things for no reason, and you certainly don’t do them if you’re getting ready to pack up and go home,” Austin said. U.S. officials say Moscow has sent another 7,000 troops to the Ukraine border in recent days.

Austin added, “There is no reason, of course, that it should ever come to this. Just like there is no reason for Russia to again invade Ukraine” after annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

The Kremlin contends it is withdrawing troops from near the Ukraine border but said it will take time to do so.

Austin said that if Russian President Vladimir Putin “chooses war” instead of a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine crisis, “it will be Mr. Putin who will bear the responsibility for the suffering and the immense sacrifice that ensues.”

Austin said that “a peaceful outcome that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity represents the best outcome for Ukraine, to be sure, but also for Russia and for the Russian people.”

Russia’s intentions could become clearer after the United States and its allies analyze a document that the Kremlin delivered to U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan in Moscow.

It is Russia’s written response to the recent U.S. and NATO offer to negotiate over their missile deployment and troop exercises in Europe while rejecting Russia’s demands related to possible Ukrainian membership in NATO.

The U.S. is also watching the conflict between Russian separatists and Kyiv’s forces in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where 14,000 people have been killed in the past eight years.

On Thursday, Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed rebels traded accusations of firing across a cease-fire line. Austin said reports of the shelling were “certainly troubling. We’ve said for some time that the Russians might do something like this in order to justify a military conflict, so we’ll be watching very closely.”

Struck during the shelling was a kindergarten classroom in Stanytsia Luhanska, in pro-Ukrainian territory in Donbas.

Separatists in the Luhansk region blamed the Ukrainian government for the shelling, adding that rebel forces returned fire, according to The Associated Press.

However, Ukraine disputed the claim, saying separatists had shelled its forces, but they didn’t fire back. The Ukrainian military command said the shelling wounded two teachers and cut power to half the town, according to media reports.

“Attacks on kindergartens and schools have been a sad reality for children in eastern Ukraine over the last eight years,” UNICEF said in a statement early Friday.  “More than 750 schools have been damaged since the beginning of the conflict, disrupting access to education for thousands of children on both sides of the contact line.”

“Educational facilities should remain a safe space where children can be protected from threats and crises and a haven where they can learn, play, and grow to their full potential,” UNICEF said.

Yasar Halit Cevik, the head of the monitoring mission for the OSCE, told the U.N Security Council there had been 500 explosions along the contact line from Wednesday evening to Thursday. He said that tensions then appeared to ease, with fewer blasts reported.

The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine said in a tweet, “The aggressor in Donbas is clear – Russia.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia was deeply concerned about the flare-up in violence. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for a condemnation of what he called a “severe violation of Minsk agreements by Russia amid an already tense security situation.”  The U.S. Embassy also made similar comments in another tweet.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, “We are concerned that Russia is trying to stage a pretext for an armed attack against Ukraine.”

He said that “NATO’s door remains open” to negotiations, but the Western alliance cannot accept when “big powers intimidate, bully or dictate others.” He invited Russia to “engage in good faith” over the Ukraine crisis.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters. 

 
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Millions of Britons were urged to cancel travel plans and stay indoors Friday amid fears of high winds and flying debris as the second major storm this week prompted a rare “red” weather warning across southern England.

Storm Eunice is likely to cause significant disruption and dangerous conditions, with gusts that may exceed 145 kph in highly exposed coastal areas, the U.K.’s weather forecasting office said.

The Met Office issued “red” warnings – indicating a danger to life – for parts of southwest England between 7 a.m. and noon and for southeast England and London from 10 a.m. until 3 p.m.

A lower level amber warning for gusts up to 129 kph covers the whole of England from 5 a.m. to 9 p.m.

“After the impacts from Storm Dudley for many on Wednesday, Storm Eunice will bring damaging gusts in what could be one of the most impactful storms to affect southern and central parts of the U.K. for a few years,” Met Office chief meteorologist Paul Gundersen said. “The red warning areas indicate a significant danger to life as extremely strong winds provide the potential for damage to structures and flying debris.”

The government is set to hold a meeting of its COBRA emergency committee meeting to discuss the storm later Friday.

The Environment Agency has issued 10 severe flood warnings, another indicator of life-threatening weather conditions.

A number of tourist attractions in England, including the London Eye, Legoland and Warwick Castle are temporarily closing.

“I urge all Londoners to stay at home, do not take risks, and do not travel unless it is absolutely essential,” Mayor Sadiq Khan said.

Train operators across Britain also urged passengers to avoid traveling Friday.

British Airways warned of delays at London’s Heathrow Airport because the wind has reduced the rate at which aircraft are permitted to land.

“High winds and poor weather may cause last-minute delays, but we will do everything in our power to minimize any disruption that results,” the airline said.

The government highway agency said high-sided vehicles and other “vulnerable” vehicles such as caravans and motorbikes could be blown over so should avoid bridges and viaducts.

Anyone traveling should “plan your trip and take extra care, allowing more time for your journey,” said Jeremy Phillips, head of road safety for the National Highways agency.

“In the event of persistent high winds, we may need to close bridges to traffic for a period, so please be alert for warnings of closures and follow signed diversion routes,” he added. 

 
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U.S. President Joe Biden says there is a “very high” likelihood that Russia will invade Ukraine in the next several days. Three top U.S. officials are in Europe to meet with allies about the escalations in Eastern Europe. VOA Pentagon Correspondent Carla Babb reports from Brussels.
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The United States and its Western allies are bracing for the possibility that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would have a ripple effect in cyberspace, even if Western entities are not initially the intended target.

“I am absolutely concerned,” U.S. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco told the virtual Munich Cyber Security Conference on Thursday when asked about the chances of catastrophic spillover from a cyberattack on Ukraine.

“It’s not hypothetical,” Monaco said, pointing to the June 2017 “NotPetya” virus, engineered by Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU.

The virus initially targeted a Ukrainian accounting website but went on to hobble companies around the world, including Danish shipping giant Maersk and U.S.-based FedEx.

“Companies of any size and of all sizes would be foolish not to be preparing right now,” Monaco said. “They need to be shields-up and really be on the most heightened level of alert.”

Monaco is not the first high-ranking U.S. official to warn that potential Russian actions in cyberspace might reverberate in unexpected ways.

“We’ve seen this play before,” U.S. National Cyber Director Chris Inglis warned a virtual audience earlier this month. Like Monaco, he alluded to the NotPetya attack: “It got out of its reservoir, so to speak, and it then eviscerated broad swaths of infrastructure across Europe and across the United States.”

U.S. Homeland Security Department officials said that for the moment, there were no specific or credible threats indicating an attack like NotPetya is about to be unleashed against the United States. But they said they were not taking any chances and were closely collaborating with Ukraine and other allies, just in case.

Russia’s record

“We are all hands on deck,” Homeland Security Undersecretary Robert Silvers told the Munich Cyber Security Conference on Thursday.

“It’s no secret that Russia has proven itself willing to use cyber means to achieve its broader geopolitical objectives,” Silvers added, pointing to Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s energy grid in 2015.

Some officials remained concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin would give the order to target countries beyond Ukraine as part of any military action against Ukraine.

“I don’t think Ukraine is his goal,” said Jaak Tarien, the director of NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defense Center of Excellence in Estonia.

“Putin said in 2007 at the Munich Security Conference that he is sick and tired of the existing security architecture and he wants to change that, and he’s still at it,” Tarien told Thursday’s cybersecurity conference. His goal is “to get U.S. allies to fight amongst each other and disrupt our unity. So cyber is a really, really good way to do that.”

U.S. agencies are likewise worried that as tensions escalate, Russia may be tempted to ramp up cyber operations.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the FBI and the National Security Agency issued a joint advisory warning that Kremlin-linked actors might use a variety of techniques to target U.S. defense contractors. 

Not all cyber experts are convinced Russia will resort to cyberattacks to hurt the West, even if the U.S. and its allies make good on promises to hit Moscow with severe economic sanctions.

“I don’t think that cyber [attacks] from state actors is going to be the first or the preferred mechanism for response,” Dmitri Alperovitch, the co-founder of the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, told the Munich Cyber Security Conference.

“Russia has enormous leverage in the economic sphere, even outside of cyber, to respond through export control measures, for example, on critical materials like aluminum and uranium and titanium and palladium and many other things that will do a lot to hurt the U.S. economy and the global economy,” he said.

Alperovitch also cautioned that Russia might be willing to let cybercriminals do the work instead, perhaps releasing a number of ransomware actors it has arrested in recent weeks.

“That would send an unmistakable, even unspoken message to the Russian cybercrime ecosystem that it’s open season on Western organizations,” he said.
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The crisis in Ukraine has united most Republicans and Democrats in a rare moment of bipartisan agreement that the United States must stand strong against the aggression of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But a small group within the Republican Party — heavily influenced by former President Donald Trump’s stance toward Russia — has criticized President Joe Biden for opposing Putin’s designs on Ukraine, with some going as far to say Russia has a right to invade. Some progressive Democrats in the House of Representatives have also warned there is no military solution to the crisis.

With memories of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and subsequent Taliban takeover still fresh in the minds of the American public, much of the concern on both the right and the left is focused on avoiding military involvement in Europe. 

Biden has said multiple times the U.S. will not commit troops on the ground in Ukraine and will only provide military aid. Most Republican and Democratic lawmakers agree with the administration’s position that Ukraine’s fledgling democracy must be protected.

But conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson repeatedly has expressed doubt that Ukraine is a democracy worth U.S. protection.

“It should make you very nervous that Joe Biden, Susan Rice and the national security adviser kid, they’re all telling us with a straight face … it’s a democracy,” Carlson said this week on his show, referring to Biden adviser Jake Sullivan.

Republican Senator Josh Hawley — a frequent guest on Carlson’s show — expressed similar concerns in a February 1 letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, writing that the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine’s membership in NATO defies current geopolitical realities.

“The United States has an interest in maintaining Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. And we should urgently deliver to Ukraine assistance it needs to defend itself against Russia’s military buildup and other threats. Our interest is not so strong, however, as to justify committing the United States to go to war with Russia over Ukraine’s fate. Rather, we must aid Ukraine in a manner that aligns with the American interests at stake and preserves our ability to deny Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific,” Hawley wrote.

Members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus have been especially vocal about avoiding U.S. involvement in Ukraine.

“We have no dog in the Ukraine fight. Not one American soldier should die there. Not one American bullet should be fired there. We just lost Afghanistan to sandal-wearing goat herders. I assure you [the] Russian military is no joke either,” said Republican Congressman Paul Gosar.

“Ukraine has no basis to be in NATO, and NATO itself — a Cold War relic — arguably has no current purpose or mission. Getting involved in a military situation with no U.S. interest is America Last, not America First,” he said.

Recent polling shows a slight majority of Americans support the U.S. staying out of negotiations to end the crisis. In a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted between February 8 and 11, 53% of Americans supported that view, while 43% supported Ukraine and 4% supported Russia. In that same poll, about 20% of voters said Biden’s approach to Russia was “too hostile,” with Republicans and independents making up almost all of those holding that viewpoint.

Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger — a leading critic of Trump — told the CBS news show “Face the Nation” the pro-Putin group within his own party is not large but is still a significant concern.

“There’s a significant number of folks doing it with Tucker Carlson, talking about, you know, how great Vladimir Putin is and how Ukraine is really actually part of Russia,” Kinzinger said.

While no Democrats have expressed support for Putin in the way some Republicans have supported him, voices on the left are speaking out against U.S. involvement in the region.

“We have significant concerns that new troop deployments, sweeping and indiscriminate sanctions, and a flood of hundreds of millions of dollars in lethal weapons will only raise tensions and increase the chance of miscalculation. Russia’s strategy is to inflame tensions; the United States and NATO must not play into this strategy,” said Democratic Congresswomen Pramila Jayapal and Barbara Lee in a statement last month.

Senator Bernie Sanders’ foreign policy adviser Matt Duss has also been publicly vocal about the need to avoid accelerating the conflict with Russia, tweeting, “It’s good news that Senate Dems were able to resist being lured onto an even more hawkish sanctions bill in the name of ‘bipartisanship.’” 

U.S. senators failed to reach an agreement this week on a bipartisan sanctions bill, choosing instead to release a rare statement of unity expressing support for Ukraine. Twelve Republican and Democratic senators encouraged unity among NATO allies, while warning Russia would face “significant costs” if it followed through with an invasion.
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Tanzanian political figures are applauding after President Samia Suluhu Hassan met in Brussels Wednesday with opposition leader Tundu Lissu. Lissu has lived in Belgium since a 2017 assassination attempt. He returned to Tanzania in 2020 to run for president but fled the country again after protests against his election loss and what he said were threats to his life.

The meeting lasted about an hour, and afterward, the president and exiled opposition leader shook hands for the cameras.

Lissu said that during the meeting, he raised concerns about his fate and that of other opposition politicians who fled Tanzania to seek asylum abroad, after their lives were put in danger during the rule of late President John Magufuli.  

Lissu said he’d like to return home but wants Hassan to assure his safety. 

The president’s office issued a brief statement on the meeting and said Hassan and Lissu discussed issues of interest to the welfare of Tanzania. 

However, Lissu shared more details on Twitter. He said he asked the president to drop a case facing the Chadema Party’s national chairperson, Freeman Mbowe, and three other party members who are behind bars, facing terrorism and economic sabotage charges.

Some Tanzanians said the meeting between the president and the Chadema vice-chairperson showed political maturity and promise for the future.

“I believe it’s a very good political move.  All now that we are waiting to see is whether all that was discussed will be implemented. For example, there was a suggestion that Tundu Lissu requested the immediate release of the leader of opposition Freeman Mbowe who according to many, was captured on political grounds. I think if the president will honor all that was discussed then we are headed on a very good path. So, let’s wait and see because we can not only be excited without seeing the results,” said Jesca Muleba, a resident of Morogoro.

Political analyst Aika Peter says the meeting between the two should have a positive impact on Tanzania’s politics.

“Let us not forget that to lead any country you need to lead the people, even if you do not agree but there are things that are related to human rights, if they are not violated it becomes a very good thing. What happened yesterday we applaud and see it as a good step for political parties and the nation as a whole,” Peter said.

Rights activist Kumbusho Dawson says the meeting showed that the country is going to accept a national dialogue. He called the encounter a new beginning toward opening up national dialogue and unifying the country. Dawson added that Tanzanians can now hope that their country can get into observing democratic principles.

In recent months, Hassan has ended bans on several media outlets and implemented other reforms to open up political space – a sharp turnaround from the authoritarian tendencies of the late President Magufuli.
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Dozens of African heads of state are in Brussels for a summit of European Union and African Union leaders, beginning Thursday. The coronavirus pandemic, investment and security are high on the agenda, as Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
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The Kremlin said Thursday it will take time to withdraw Russian forces that have completed drills near the Ukraine border, while the United States and other Ukrainian allies say there are no concrete signs of a pullback of the Russian military elements that have sparked fears of a new invasion of Ukraine.

A senior U.S. official told reporters late Wednesday that despite Russia saying it was starting to send some units back to their bases, it had actually added as many as 7,000 more troops along the Ukraine border.

“The Russians have also said in recent days that they are prepared to engage in diplomacy as we and our allies have repeatedly offered,” the official said. “But every indication we have now is they mean only to publicly offer to talk and make claims about de-escalation while privately mobilizing for war.”

Russia has denied it plans to invade Ukraine, and it has sought security guarantees such as a NATO commitment that it will rule out membership for Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.

The United States and NATO have repeatedly said that demand is not up for consideration, including doing so in a letter to Russia in late January as part of lengthy and ongoing diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday that Russia would deliver its written response to the U.S. letter later in the day.

Also Thursday, Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine traded accusations of firing across a cease-fire line.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was deeply concerned about the flare-up in violence. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for a condemnation of what he called a “severe violation of Minsk agreements by Russia amid an already tense security situation.”

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.
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Ukraine’s Western allies were warning last week of an “imminent” attack by Russia, and earlier this week that shifted to an assault remaining a “distinct possibility.” But now a consensus is forming that the Kremlin intends to keep NATO and Kyiv in suspense and is preparing to persist with a strategy of armed blackmail for the foreseeable future.

Britain’s foreign secretary Liz Truss warned Thursday that Russia might well prolong the stand-off on Ukraine’s borders for months, testing the resolve of the West and the resilience of Ukraine, and with the aim of extracting security concessions and roiling the Western alliance.

She said there is no evidence of any withdrawal of Russian troops, despite claims by the Kremlin otherwise.

“We must not be lulled into a false sense of security by Russia claiming that some troops are returning to their barracks, while in fact the Russian military build-up shows no signs of slowing,” she said. “There is currently no evidence that the Russians are withdrawing from border regions near Ukraine,” she added.

And Britain’s foreign minister warned: “We must have no illusions that Russia could drag this out much longer in a brazen ploy to spend weeks more — if not months — subverting Ukraine and challenging Western unity. This is a test of our mettle.”

Her assessment echoes what Ukrainian officials have long argued — namely, that the Kremlin has many hybrid-warfare options and will prolong the crisis using different tactics to goad and intimidate. They have said repeatedly that Putin’s strategy is more about trying to wear the West down rather than gamble with an invasion of Ukraine that would likely mire Russia in a long and bloody counter-insurgency war.

And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his aides have been much more cautious about predicting an invasion or offering a date for it. Earlier this week the Ukrainian leader appeared to poke fun at Western warnings about a firm date for a Russian assault — February 16 had been publicly earmarked by US and British officials as the likely date for a Russian offensive to begin.

The Kremlin has denied it has been planning to invade Ukraine and has accused Western leaders of whipping up “hysteria.” Kremlin-directed media have been telling their domestic Russian audiences that NATO has been fomenting alarmism and Kremlin officials have been mocking the predictions of an invasion.

Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Wednesday wrote on social media “I’d like to ask if US and British sources of disinformation … could publish the schedule of our upcoming invasions for the year. I’d like to plan my holidays.”

A former British intelligence chief, John Sawers told the BBC midweek that he thought the chance of an invasion “was never quite as high as was being portrayed by some Western governments.” He added: “I don’t think that President Putin ever decided to invade the country and, indeed, I think it would always have been a very risky course for him to have taken.”

Invasion fears aside, NATO allies are taking no chances and are preparing to move more tanks and warplanes towards eastern Europe, to bolster the confidence of the alliance’s Central European and Baltic members. NATO’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday “we are prepared for the worst.”

Ukraine’s Western allies are also determined to harden the country’s cyber-defenses following a massive midweek denial of service cyber-attack, that the Ukrainians blame on Russia, and which targeted the web portal of the defense ministry. The cyber-attack also impacted Ukraine’s largest private bank, and another owned by the state as well as energy infrastructure.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, said the attack, which happened on Tuesday, was “unprecedented” and designed “to sow panic, to do everything so that a certain chaos appears in our country.” The Kremlin has denied any responsibility for the cyberattack.

Electronic warfare experts from the United States and Britain are being tasked to help Ukraine build more cyber-resilience and to spot vulnerable access points in key systems and to identify whether any disruptive malware has been planted, say Western officials.

NATO split

With the crisis prolonging, amid a Russian demand that NATO publicly guarantee Ukraine never joins the alliance as a member, there are signs that a split is emerging among Western allies over what concessions to offer the Kremlin in a bid to end the crisis.

Russia has demanded Ukraine never join NATO. And the Kremlin wants any NATO military presence removed from the former Communist countries of Central Europe, once members of the Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact and now participants in the western alliance.

The leaders of France and Germany, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, who have been shuttling between Moscow and Kyiv, are pressing Ukraine to announce that it will ditch its ambition to join NATO, Ukrainian officials have told VOA.

In an awkward moment Monday during a joint press conference in Kyiv, Scholz said that the issue of NATO membership for Ukraine “is practically not on the agenda.” But Zelenskiy suggested Ukraine would still like to join NATO, although he conceded that it is nothing more than a “dream” at this stage.

Other alliance members, especially Ukraine’s near neighbors, are opposed to closing the door formally on Ukraine joining NATO, fearing to do so would embolden the Kremlin and because it would undermine the alliance’s open-door policy and establish the right of bigger powers to dictate the foreign policy of smaller nations.

Macron and Scholz have also been urging President Zelenskiy to agree to implement a 6-year-old peace deal on the future of Ukraine’s Donbas region, parts of which have been under de facto Russian occupation since April 2014, and where an estimated 32,000 Russian troops are currently stationed.

Minsk accords

Known as Minsk Accords, which were brokered by France and Germany in 2015, the deal is highly unpopular in Ukraine and was agreed to by Kyiv at a time it was losing the war in the East and had little option but to sign.

Ukrainian politicians believe the accords could be used by the Kremlin to dominate its neighbor and meddle further in its domestic politics. The agreement was meant to bring fighting to a halt in the Donbas and proposed that the two Moscow-backed ‘breakaway republics’ in the region be reintegrated into Ukraine but retain considerable powers of self-government.

Last week, Ukraine’s president noticeably refrained from re-committing fully to the agreement during a joint news conference with Macron. On Wednesday, the Kyiv Independent news outlet quoted Ukrainian government and diplomatic sources as saying that both France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz had tried to push Kyiv to show progress in complying with the Minsk accords.

Former Swedish diplomat Fredrik Löjdquist worries about the crisis being prolonged by the Kremlin. He posted on social media already “the West has reacted on a playing field defined by Russia.” He fears Putin has achieved much by maneuvering Western governments into discussing Europe’s security and “by renewing pressure on Kyiv to make concessions on its sovereignty.”

But others maintain that Western powers, led by U.S. President Joe Biden, have been doing a good job in countering Putin and shaping a cohesive policy to contain Russia while retaining overall unity. Ian Bremmer, of the Eurasia Group, a risk assessment firm based in New York, credits Biden, “So far Ukraine policy is right on target,” he says.   

 
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President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that France will withdraw its troops from Mali nine years after it first intervened to drive Islamic extremists from power but intends to maintain a military presence in neighboring West African nations.

Announcing the move during a Thursday news conference in Paris, Macron accused Mali’s ruling military junta of neglecting the fight against Islamic extremists and said it was logical for France to withdraw since its role is not to replace a sovereign state on the battlefield.

“Victory against terror is not possible if it’s not supported by the state itself,” the French leader said.

France has about 4,300 troops in the Sahel region, including 2,400 in Mali. The so-called Barkhane force is also involved in Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mauritania.

Macron said the French pullout would be done “in an orderly manner” in coordination with the Malian military. France will start by closing military bases in the north of Mali, and the withdrawal will take between four or six months, he said.

“We cannot remain militarily involved” alongside Malian transitional authorities with whom “we don’t share the strategy and goals,” Macron said.

European leaders simultaneously announced Thursday that troops from the European-led military task force known as Takuba also would withdraw from Mali. The Takuba task force is composed of several hundred special forces troops from about a dozen European countries, including France.

Tensions have grown between Mali, its African neighbors and the European Union, especially after the West African country’s transitional government allowed Russian mercenaries to deploy in its territory.

Macron said a coalition of allies will remain present in the Sahel and the Guinea Gulf to counter actions from Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

Macron organized a summit in Paris on Wednesday evening to address the issue with regional and European leaders of countries involved in the Sahel.

Representatives from Mali and Burkina Faso coup leaders were not invited since both nations were suspended from the African Union following coups.

Senegalese President Macky Sall, who also chairs the African Union, said security and the fight against terror was “vital” for both Europe and Africa.

Speaking alongside Macron, Sall said he understood the decisions by France and the EU to end theirs operation in Mali but was pleased that an agreement on a new arrangement was reached to provide a continued presence in the Sahel.

Sall said there was a consensus during among EU and African leaders during their discussions that the fight against terror “should not be the sole business of African countries.”

Macron said the “heart” of the French operation “won’t be in Mali anymore” but in neighboring Niger, especially in the region bordering Burkina Faso, Macron detailed.

He did not give an estimate of how many forces would take part in the new operation.

French forces have been active since 2013 in Mali, where they intervened to drive Islamic extremists from power. But the insurgents regrouped in the desert and began attacking the Malian army and its allies.

Macron said support for civilians in Mali would continue, but he blamed the junta now ruling the country for its decision to hire a private Russian military contractor known as the Wagner Group, which the EU accuses of fomenting violence and committing human rights abuses in Africa. 

 
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The top European Union court ruled on Wednesday that the EU can withhold funding from member states that fail to uphold its rule of law principles, giving the bloc a powerful tool to enforce its democratic values. 

“The European Union must be able to defend those values, within the limits of its powers,” the European Court of Justice said in the ruling. The decision by the Luxembourg-based court cannot be appealed. 

“Today’s judgments confirm that we are on the right track,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said when announcing how the bloc would proceed in the next couple of weeks.  

The European Commission approved a rule 14 months ago allowing it to withhold funds from member states that deviate from European legal standards. It waited for the court’s ruling to move forward.  

Hungary and Poland, the most likely targets of the rule, have disputed the EU’s right to make such judgments, declaring them as illegitimate and an overstepping of authority. Both countries have faced severe criticism by EU members for their implementation of policies suppressing media rights and LGBTQ rights, and restricting judicial independence.  

“The ruling is another application of pressure against our country because we passed our child protection law during the summer,” said Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Varga, referring to legislation that forbids minors from obtaining media content that depicts homosexuality or gender transitioning. 

“We need to defend ourselves against an attack on our sovereignty,” said Polish Deputy Justice Minister Sebastian Kaleta. “Poland has to defend its democracy against blackmail that aims to take away our right to decide about ourselves.” 

The two countries are most directly affected by this new ruling. Being major recipients of EU funds since joining the bloc in 2004, Hungary and Poland have received billions in aid to rebuild their economies. 

The court has argued that state members’ democratic backsliding impacts both the budget and political matters of the 27-member union. 

EU admission criteria require that a candidate nation embrace respect for democracy and rule of law principles. In its ruling, the court said a state cannot abandon those standards once it achieves membership.  

“The court specifies, first, that compliance with those values cannot be reduced to an obligation which a candidate state must meet in order to accede to the European Union and which it may disregard after accession,” it said. 

Hungary and Poland have threatened to stall EU decisions requiring unanimity on issues such as foreign policy, climate, and energy, in efforts to retaliate, according to the Reuters news agency.  

 
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NATO’s chief said on Wednesday there was no evidence that Russia was withdrawing forces from the Ukraine border, but he added there was still a chance for a diplomatic solution. NATO leaders and defense ministers were meeting in Brussels for talks. VOA Pentagon Correspondent Carla Babb has more.
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Russia reiterated Wednesday that it had begun withdrawing some troops from close to the Ukrainian border. But many Western nations said there was little evidence of a pullback – and fear an invasion of Ukraine was still imminent. Henry Ridgwell reports.
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France on Wednesday said a decision on salvaging Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers was just days away and that it was now up to Tehran to make the political choice.

Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the tattered agreement resumed last week after a 10-day hiatus and officials from the other parties to the accord – Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia – have shuttled between the two sides as they seek to close gaps.

Western diplomats previously indicated they hoped to have a breakthrough by now, but tough issues remain unresolved. Iran has rejected any deadline imposed by Western powers.

“We have reached tipping point now. It’s not a matter of weeks, it’s a matter of days,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told parliament, adding that the Western powers, Russia and China were in accord on the outlines of the accord.

“Political decisions are needed from the Iranians. Either they trigger a serious crisis in the coming days, or they accept the agreement which respects the interests of all parties.”

Several other sources tracking the talks said that the next couple of days would be crucial in determining whether there was a way to revive the agreement.

The agreement began to unravel in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States and reimposed broad economic sanctions on Iran, which then began breaching the deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment activity a year later.

Diplomats and analysts say the longer Iran remains outside the deal, the more nuclear expertise it will gain, shortening the time it might need to race to build a bomb if it chose to, thereby vitiating the accord’s original purpose. Tehran denies it has ever sought to develop nuclear arms.

Western diplomats say they are now in the final phase of the talks and believe that a deal is within reach.

‘Moment of Truth’

“We are coming to the moment of truth. If we want Iran to respect its (nuclear) non-proliferation commitments and in exchange for the United States to lift sanctions, there has to be something left to do it,” Le Drian said.

Iran’s foreign ministry said on Monday it was “in a hurry” to strike a new deal as long as its national interests were protected and that restoring the pact required “political decisions by the West.”

Ali Shamkhani, hardline secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, underlined Iranian wariness by saying on Wednesday that the 2015 accord had become economically worthless for Iran and he blamed the United States and European powers.

“The United States and Europe failed to meet their obligations under the (deal). The deal has now become an empty shell for Iran in the economic sphere and the lifting of sanctions. There will be no negotiations beyond the nuclear deal with a non-compliant America and a passive Europe,” he tweeted.

China’s envoy to the talks said on Wednesday Iran was being constructive by putting everything on the table in response to U.S. approaches. “They have not only adopted this straightforward approach but also made a political decision based on give and take,” Wang Qun told Reuters.

Bones of contention remain Iran’s demand for a U.S. guarantee of no more sanctions or other punitive steps in future, and how and when to restore verifiable restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear activity.

The agreement curbed Iran’s enrichment of uranium to make it harder for Tehran to develop material for nuclear weapons, in return for a lifting of international sanctions.

The Islamic Republic has since rebuilt stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity, close to weapons-grade, and installed advanced centrifuges to speed up enrichment.
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President Emmanuel Macron hosts African leaders on Wednesday ahead of an expected announcement that France is withdrawing its troops from Mali after an almost decade-long deployment to battle a jihadist insurgency.

Multiple sources have told AFP that Macron will announce that French forces will leave Mali and redeploy elsewhere in the Sahel region, following a breakdown in relations with the ruling junta.

It remains unclear when, and how, Macron will make the announcement, which could come as part of Wednesday’s meeting or when he travels to Brussels on Thursday for a two-day EU-Africa summit.

The deployment in Mali of a European force known as Takuba — a project driven by Macron to spread the security burden in the troubled region — will also come to an end, the sources said.

The Mali deployment has been fraught with problems for France, with 48 of the 53 soldiers killed during its Barkhane mission in West Africa losing their lives in the country.

France initially deployed troops against jihadists in Mali in 2013 but the insurgency was never fully quelled, and new fears have now emerged of a jihadist push to the Gulf of Guinea.

The announcement of the withdrawal comes at a critical time for Macron, just days ahead of a long-awaited declaration from the president that he will stand for a new term in April elections.

It also coincides with Macron seeking to take a lead role in international diplomacy as he presses Russia to de-escalate in the standoff over Ukraine.

Multiple missions

The working dinner hosted by Macron on Wednesday starting at 1930 GMT will bring together the leaders of France’s key allies in the Sahel region — Chad, Mauritania and Niger.

Officials from Mali as well as Burkina Faso, which also recently experienced a coup, have pointedly not been invited.

Other African leaders will also be present along with European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, as well as Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

There are a total of 25,000 foreign troops currently deployed in the Sahel.

They include around 4,300 French troops, which under a reduction announced last year are due to fall to around 2,500 in 2023 from a peak of 5,400.

Other forces deployed in Mali are the U.N. peacekeeping mission MINUSMA established in 2013 and the EUTM Mali, an EU military training mission that aims to improve the Malian military’s capacity in fighting terrorists.

Some 2,400 French soldiers are deployed in Mali as part of the Barkhane operation as well as the EU Takuba force set up in 2020, which was intended to increase in numbers as French deployment was scaled back.

According to a French source, who asked not to be identified by name, even after departure France will for a period provide MINUSMA and EUTM with support in the air and medical back-up.

‘Reinvent partnership’

Relations between France and Mali have plunged to new lows after the junta led by strongman Assimi Goita refused to stick to a calendar to a return to civilian rule.

The West also accuses Mali of using the services of the hugely controversial Russian mercenary group Wagner to shore up its position, a move that gives Moscow a new foothold in the region.

Especially with the French elections looming, Macron’s priority is to ensure that any withdrawal does not invite comparisons with the chaotic American departure from Afghanistan last year.

Paris, however, intends to continue the anti-jihadist fight in the wider region, where movements affiliated with al-Qaida or the Islamic State group have retained an ability to attack despite the elimination of key leaders.

“We need to reinvent our military partnership with these countries,” said a French presidential source, asking for anonymity.

“It is not a question of moving what is being done in Mali elsewhere, but of reinforcing what is being done in Niger and of supporting the south more.”
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Everything is normal — or appears so.

Outside the grand nineteenth-century city hall in Lviv, the capital of western Ukraine where Western embassies hurriedly relocated consular staff from Kyiv earlier this week, the streets are bustling.

Children squeal with delight as they try to master their roller-skates in an outdoor skating rink nearby. Their breath steams in the chill evening air. Young lovers kiss, some argue, outside restaurants and bars. Older couples saunter through the narrow streets of Lviv’s historic center, seemingly in their twilight years without a care in the world.

Lviv is much more a tourist town than the Ukrainian capital but there are few foreign visitors here now thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, travel restrictions and the talk of war. Outside a bar a couple of inebriated middle-aged Dutchmen, among the few tourists, linger outside the White Rabbit strip club, debating whether to enter. Their discussion concludes much more rapidly than the diplomatic wrangling over Ukraine, and they stagger inside.

Workers hurry home as the evening turns colder.

But everything is not normal on the eve of the day Western intelligence agencies had warned Russia might invade Ukraine.

“We talk about war and whether Russia will invade all the time,” says Anastasia, a 25-year-old waitress. She moved from a small town in Central Ukraine to Lviv for work, and because she loves the city.

Her face clouds when she talks about Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. “I have family in Russia, too,” she says. “I hope he doesn’t invade; he won’t invade; he can’t; maybe he will,” she says, confused by a riddle that’s also bewildering the statesmen of Europe.

Anastasia shrugs — it is a very Ukrainian gesture, indicating not indifference, just stoicism in the face of the unknown.

For eight years, since Russia annexed Crimea and fomented war in the Donbas region in the east of the country, Ukraine has been collectively shrugging its shoulders — its way of enduring threats and alarms and not allowing fear to disrupt ordinary life.

Carrying on

And that is what it did as Tuesday turned into Wednesday, the day the Russians were supposed to invade. The country shrugged its shoulders and carried on undaunted. In much the same way it has coped with the coronavirus pandemic, aware of the risks but decidedly reluctant to offer the virus any concessions, like actually wearing masks or frequently disinfecting hands.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy declared earlier this week February 16 a Day of Unity, signing decree number 53/2022. He called on Ukrainians to fly flags and sing the national anthem in unison. Ukrainian government officials stressed that Zelenskiy was not predicting an attack Wednesday but responding skeptically to foreign reports about when an attack was likely to come.

“They tell us Feb. 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it a day of unity,” Zelenskiy said in a video address to the nation earlier this week. “They are trying to frighten us by yet again naming a date for the start of military action,” Zelenskiy said. “We will hang our national flags, wear yellow and blue banners, and show the whole world our unity,” he added.

In Lviv, a city all too accustomed through its seven centuries of turbulent and often violent history to invasion and assault, Unity Day was a subdued affair. For most people it was a day much like any other. They just carried on, generally maskless, neither optimistic nor pessimistic: just fatalistic.

“Every president declares this day or that day a holiday, but it is not a religious one,” said Dmitry, a newspaper vendor at a kiosk near St. George’s Cathedral. With a hint of exasperation in his voice, he added: “We are not unpatriotic, but carrying on as normal.”

Nearby at a cafe, Denys, a venture capitalist and equities dealer, says there’s normal and then there is “Ukrainian normal.” He asked for his company not to be identified in this article.

“We have lived with a crazy neighbor for a long time — some would say for centuries,” he says. “Until last week, we weren’t really worried. I think most Ukrainians thought this was just more of the same, not dissimilar to what we have seen since 2014,” he added.

“That changed last week because of an accumulation of factors — intensifying news coverage, embassies leaving Kyiv and airlines canceling flights,” says the father of a one-half-year-old, Mia.

Denys and his wife decided last week to relocate for a couple of weeks to Lviv. “It seemed prudent,” he explained as his blue-eyed daughter paraded around the cafe, dragging a blanket and chuckling. He and his partner and their families are originally from Donetsk, and they all left the city in a hurry in 2014, when armed Russian proxies seized the city.

“My company owns property in Lviv and we had a contingency plan for relocation, so we decided just to put it into operation.” He has never thought Putin would gamble by launching a full-scale invasion. “This has been more of an information war and maybe it will allow all sides to win: Joe Biden and other Western leaders being able to say they are peacemakers, and Putin able to present himself as the lone defender of the Russian people,” he says.

Denys plans to return to Kyiv Sunday, but he’s still scrutinizing the news to see if his hunch is correct.
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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday he is “troubled by dubious new charges” against Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, who went on trial Tuesday in a penal colony outside of Moscow.

Navalny is accused of embezzlement and contempt of court. If convicted, he could face up to 15 more years in prison. 

“Navalny and his associates are targeted for their work to shine a light on official corruption,” Blinken tweeted. He added a call for Russian authorities to release Navalny “and end their harassment and prosecution of his supporters.” 

The Kremlin critic was arrested in January 2021 and convicted of violating his parole by spending several months in Germany recovering from a poison attack. He was sentenced to two-and-a-half years in prison.

At his new trial, Russian investigators say Navalny embezzled money donated to his FBK anti-corruption political organization. The contempt of court charge stems from Navalny allegedly insulting a judge during a previous trial. 

“It is just that these people, who ordered this trial, are really scared,” Navalny, 45, said during the hearing. “(Scared) of what I say during this trial, of people seeing that the case is obviously fabricated.”  

Navalny adamantly denies the accusations and calls them politically motivated.  

“I am not afraid of this court, of the penal colony, the F.S.B., of the prosecutors, chemical weapons, Putin and all others,” Navalny said in court, according to a video of his statement. “I am not afraid because I believe it is humiliating and useless to be afraid of it all.”

Navalny’s allies have denounced the case, and his lawyer says it is an attempt by the Kremlin to silence him.

“We believe the persecution of Navalny is illegal, is distinctly political in nature, and aimed at discrediting and removing him from political activity,” lawyer Olga Mikhailova said, according to Agence France-Presse. 

A longtime rival of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Navalny has accused the president of enrichening himself as well as other government officials through corrupt measures. His attempt at running in the 2018 presidential elections only aggravated his relations with the Kremlin. 

As of a few months ago Navalny and his associates have been added to a state registry of extremists and terrorists by Russian officials. 
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Catholic groups Tuesday accused Italy’s Church of an “institutional failure” to confront clergy sexual abuse and demanded an independent national inquiry mirroring ones conducted in France and Germany. 

A collective of nine groups — seven headed by women — issued the demand during the launch of a campaign called “Beyond the Great Silence” and a hashtag, #ItalyChurchToo, inspired by the international #MeToo movement against sexual harassment. 

In an online news conference, Paola Lazzarini, head of Women for the Church, called for the opening of the archives of “all dioceses, convents and monasteries,” damages for victims and the uncovering of the truth, “however painful.” 

Globally, revelations of sexual abuse by clergy have so far cost the Church hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation. 

The Italian campaign aims to increase public pressure on the Church and the government for a national inquiry going back decades and rejects assertions from some Italian Catholic leaders that the Church has the resources to do the work itself. 

“Only independent investigations (elsewhere) have overcome the Church’s resistance to recognize its own institutional failure,” said anti-abuse advocate Ludovica Eugenio. 

Any Italian investigation “absolutely has to be impartial,” added Francesco Zanardi, head of Rete L’Abuso (The Abuse Network). 

Pope Francis has expressed shame at the Church’s inability to deal with sexual abuse cases and said it must make itself a “safe home for everyone.” 

The Vatican had no comment Tuesday. 

Italian bishops are due to decide in May on what type of abuse inquiry, if any, the country will hold. 

Antonio Messina, 28, one of the victims who participated in the news conference, says he was repeatedly abused when he was a minor by an adult seminarian who went on to become a priest. 

Without providing details, he said local church authorities in his hometown had tried to buy his silence. “The Church is not able to handle this (investigation),” he said. 

The German study, released in 2018, showed 1,670 clergymen abused 3,677 minors from 1946 to 2014. The French investigation, released last year and covering seven decades, said more than 200,000 children were abused in Catholic institutions. 

Zanardi said the figures would be higher in predominantly Catholic Italy because the country has traditionally had many more priests. 

 
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Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny went on trial Tuesday in a penal colony outside of Moscow, accused of embezzlement and contempt of court. If convicted, he could face up to 15 more years in prison. 

The hearing is taking place inside the maximum-security prison in Moscow’s Lefortovsky district court, where he is being held, 96 kilometers from Moscow. 

The Kremlin critic was arrested in January 2021 and convicted of violating his parole by spending several months in Germany recovering from a poison attack. He was sentenced to 2½ years in prison. 

At his new trial, Russian investigators say Navalny embezzled money donated to his FBK anti-corruption political organization. The contempt of court charge stems from Navalny allegedly insulting a judge during a previous trial. 

“It is just that these people, who ordered this trial, are really scared,” Navalny, 45, said during the hearing. “(Scared) of what I say during this trial, of people seeing that the case is obviously fabricated.” 

Navalny adamantly denies the accusations and calls them politically motivated. 

“I am not afraid of this court, of the penal colony, the F.S.B., of the prosecutors, chemical weapons, Putin and all others,” Navalny said in court, according to a video of his statement. “I am not afraid because I believe it is humiliating and useless to be afraid of it all.” 

Navalny’s allies have denounced the case, and his lawyer says it is an attempt by the Kremlin to silence him. 

“We believe the persecution of Navalny is illegal, is distinctly political in nature, and aimed at discrediting and removing him from political activity,” lawyer Olga Mikhailova said, according to Agence France-Presse. 

A longtime rival of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Navalny has accused the president of enrichening himself as well as other government officials through corrupt measures. His attempt at running in the 2018 presidential elections only aggravated his relations with the Kremlin. 

As of a few months ago Navalny and his associates have been added to a state registry of extremists and terrorists by Russian officials. 

 
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U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has arrived in Brussels for talks with NATO leadership and allied defense ministers, as tens of thousands of Russian troops have surrounded Ukraine from the north, south and east.

During the gathering on Wednesday and Thursday, Austin and his counterparts will discuss how to deter Russia from invading Ukraine while shoring up defenses on the alliance’s eastern flank.

“This really is a decisive moment for NATO, the likes of which we have not really seen potentially since NATO was established in 1949,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “This is where American leadership in NATO matters,” he told VOA.

The “underlying message” from NATO and the United States will be to protect the international rules-based order by calling out “egregious attempts to undermine the rule of law” and “upholding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states,” according to a senior defense official.

“We cannot allow an adversary to try to redraw borders by force without facing significant consequences,” the official added.

Austin will then travel to NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Russian neighbors that have watched the developments surrounding Ukraine with increasing concern.

While in Poland on Friday, Austin will meet with President Andrzej Duda before visiting U.S. troops. The United States will soon have about 9,000 troops in Poland after President Joe Biden earlier this month ordered nearly 5,000 additional troops to deploy there, citing security concerns due to Russia’s recent moves.

In Lithuania, Austin will meet with President Gitanas Nauseda and host a meeting with that country’s defense minister along with those from Estonia and Latvia.

President Joe Biden said Tuesday Russia has 150,000 troops surrounding Ukraine, including in Belarus to the north, the illegally annexed Crimea region to the south, and along the Russian border with Ukraine to the east. Russian ships are also exercising nearby in the Black Sea, which prompted a formal protest from Ukraine’s foreign ministry.

“I think of a boa constrictor that is squeezing Ukraine to force the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky to blink, to make some giant concession,” retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who once commanded U.S. Army forces in Europe, told VOA.

Russia’s defense ministry announced Tuesday that some military units would pull back to their bases, a claim that Biden said the U.S. had not yet verified.

Meanwhile, Russian legislators passed proposals Tuesday calling on President Vladimir Putin to formally recognize the separatist-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine as independent states, in a move that could justify an incursion in an area it no longer recognizes as Ukraine’s territory.

The United States has pushed for a diplomatic solution to the tensions and has said it will not fight Russian forces in Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO.

The U.S. has shipped planeloads of lethal military aid to Ukraine in recent weeks, including Javelin anti-tank weapons and ammunition. A small number of U.S. troops had also trained Ukrainian soldiers through a program that started following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, but those troops were ordered by Austin to leave Ukraine a few days ago, citing concerns that a potential Russian invasion could come at any moment.

NATO allies have made multiple attempts to get Putin to pull his troops away from Ukraine’s border and have threatened severe economic sanctions should Russian troops invade.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Moscow on Tuesday for talks with Putin. Biden called Putin on Saturday. French President Emanuel Macron spoke face to face with Putin last week.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, on the other hand, expressed his support for Putin during the heightened tensions over Moscow’s forces surrounding Ukraine.

Current and former U.S. officials have warned that an invasion of Ukraine could embolden other adversaries.

“If the United States with all of our allies, all of our partners and the combined diplomatic and economic power, cannot deter the Kremlin from … another attack on Ukraine, then I think the Chinese Communist Party leadership is not going to be terribly impressed by anything that we say about Taiwan or the South China Sea,” Hodges said.
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The European Union and African Union are holding their once every-three-year summit this week, after a two-year delay due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Leaders from the two continents will meet in Brussels to discuss, among other things, the reaction to the pandemic and helping Africa adapt to climate change.

African countries are not happy with the EU travel bans, vaccine distribution, and unwillingness to lift intellectual property rights on vaccines that can help the continent produce COVID vaccines. 

Tobias Wellner is a senior analyst with Dragonfly Intelligence, a group that studies global security and political risks. He said the summit will focus on mending relations strained by the pandemic.  

“African leaders were very upset about travel restrictions imposed by European states and we can expect that they will also speak out against the unequal distribution of COVID vaccines,” Wellner said. “Overall, the summit is probably going to be much more about reconnecting after troubled pandemic times, rather than a large diplomatic leap forward.” 

French President Emmanuel Macron told journalists his country and the EU will prioritize the relationship with Africa and establish a peace system that can build investments in African economies. 

The EU is facing competition in Africa from China, which has backed huge infrastructure projects across the continent, and also from Russia which is challenging France’s influence in central and western African countries.   

Wellner said the European Union cannot abandon its vision of seeing good governance and respect for people’s rights in Africa. 

“The EU will likely continue conditioning economic and security support for African countries on its principles, democracy, human rights and the rule of law,” Wellner said. “In this regard, the EU is probably going to continue acting more cautiously and differently from — for example — from China. There is unlikely to be a large change of politics at the summit. EU policy change takes a lot of time to change, because there are a lot of different positions within Europe that all need to be brought together. So the change, especially on the institutional levels, tends to be quite long.” 

 The two-day conference will also focus on concerns over how to mitigate the impact of climate change in Africa.  

Wanjira Mathai, the vice-president and regional director at the World Resources Institute, says rich countries need to pay for adaptation programs.  

“The biggest polluters, 80% of all global emissions, sit within the G20 and so those economies have to do the most to reduce their emissions,” Mathai said. “The climate finance agenda there has been for many years. Africa is one of the climate-vulnerable regions but we also have others but the majority of countries that require finance to take care of the adaptation capacity that finance have not been forthcoming. We know there were $100 billion goals that were not met, so there is a very clear agenda to meet the shortfall of that $100 billion.” 

Speaking at a webinar organized by the Europe Africa Foundation last month, Senegalese President Macky Sall said there was a need to develop a climate-friendly strategy and consider the level of development of African countries. 

 
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